Volume 65 - Number 1 - Spring 1999

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

65:10702 Blackburn, Keith; Cipriani, Giam P. Endogenous fertility, mortality and growth. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 11, No. 4, 1998. 517-34 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
This paper presents a model that illustrates the joint determination of population and development. "Economic and demographic outcomes are determined jointly in a choice-theoretic model of fertility, mortality and capital accumulation.... In addition to choosing savings and births, parents may reduce (infant) deaths by incurring expenditures on health-care which is also provided by the government. A generalised production technology accounts for long-run endogenous growth with short-run transitional dynamics. The analysis yields testable time series and cross-section implications which accord with the empirical evidence on the relationship between demography and development."
Correspondence: K. Blackburn, University of Manchester, School of Economic Studies, Manchester M13 9PL, England. E-mail: keith.blackburn@man.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10703 Brunn, Stanley D.; Dahlman, Carl T.; Taylor, Jonathan S. GIS uses and constraints on diffusion in Eastern European and the former USSR. Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, Vol. 39, No. 10, 1998. 566-87 pp. Palm Beach, Florida. In Eng.
The authors examine the emerging uses of geographic information systems (GIS) in Eastern Europe and the countries that formerly were part of the USSR. "The paper, based on a communications survey, conference participation, and local sources, devotes particular attention to GIS applications in planning and services delivery and to variable rates of adoption of GIS technology in the region, as documented in a table of public-sector applications compiled by the authors. Factors limiting the utility of traditional innovation-diffusion models in understanding current patterns are identified."
Correspondence: S. D. Brunn, University of Kentucky, Department of Geography, 1457 Patterson Office Tower, Lexington, KY 40506-0027. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

65:10704 Ghilagaber, Gebrenegus. Analysis of survival data with multiple causes of failure: a comparison of hazard- and logistic-regression models with application in demography. Quality and Quantity, Vol. 32, No. 3, Aug 1998. 297-324 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The purpose of the paper is to compare results of estimation and inference concerning covariate effects as obtained from two approaches to the analysis of survival data with multiple causes of failure. The first approach involves a dynamic model for the cause-specific hazard rate. The second is based on a static logistic regression model for the conditional probability of having had an event of interest. The influence of sociodemographic characteristics on the rate of family initiation and, more importantly, on the choice between marriage and cohabitation as a first union, is examined. We found that results, generally, are similar across the methods considered. Some issues in relation to censoring mechanisms and independence among causes of failure are discussed."
Correspondence: G. Ghilagaber, University of Skövde, Institute of Natural Sciences, P.O. Box 408, 541 28 Skövde, Sweden. E-mail: Gebre@inv.his.se. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

65:10705 Gozalo, Pedro L. Nonparametric bootstrap analysis with applications to demographic effects in demand functions. Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 81, No. 2, Dec 1997. 357-93 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"A new bootstrap proposal, labeled smooth conditional moment (SCM) bootstrap, is introduced for independent but not necessarily identically distributed data, where the classical bootstrap procedure fails.... A good example of the benefits of using nonparametric and bootstrap methods is the area of empirical demand analysis. In particular, we will be concerned with their application to the study of two important topics: what are the most relevant effects of household demographic variables on demand behavior, and to what extent present parametric specifications capture these effects."
Correspondence: P. L. Gozalo, Brown University, Department of Economics, Providence, RI 02912. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

65:10706 Longley, Paul A.; Goodchild, Michael F.; Maguire, David J.; Rhind, David W. Geographical information systems. 2nd ed. ISBN 0-471-32182-6. 1999. xxv, 1,101, xciii pp. John Wiley and Sons: New York, New York/Chichester, England. In Eng.
These two volumes provide a state-of-the-art source of knowledge and practice for geographic information systems (GIS) users worldwide. This edition, which is completely reorganized and rewritten, contains contributions by almost 100 authors. "Volume 1 offers detailed coverage of underlying principles and methodology that addresses the tremendous shifts and changes that have occurred in GIS technology over the last several years. Volume 2 provides an in-depth look at GIS management issues and operational applications across a breadth of areas, identifying and tackling the important challenges involved in implementing and using GIS in the real world."
Correspondence: John Wiley and Sons, 605 Third Avenue, 9th Floor, New York, NY 10158-0012. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10707 Lutz, Wolfgang; Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei. Probabilistic population projections based on expert opinion. In: The future population of the world: what can we assume today?, edited by Wolfgang Lutz. Rev. ed. 1996. 397-428 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
The authors propose and implement a new method of dealing with the problem of uncertainty in making population projections. "We call our projections `probabilistic population projections based on expert opinion'. Our method is distinguished from other methods by its use of expert opinion both on the future courses of fertility, mortality, and migration, and on the extent of their uncertainty." Separate consideration is given to regional and global projections.
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10708 Steinmann, Gunter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Feichtinger, Gustav. A model on the escape from the Malthusian trap. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 11, No. 4, 1998. 535-50 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"We propose a model to capture the escape from the Malthusian trap in the longrun. Our aim is to emphasize the key role of endogenous technological progress--as initiated by population growth and education--for longrun economic development. In addition we stress the importance to consider the level of fertility and mortality as the determinants of economic development and not only the rate of population growth. In particular, we may observe different economic growth rates in countries with the same rate of population growth, but differing levels of birth and death rates."
Correspondence: G. Steinmann, Martin-Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Department of Economics, Grosse Steinstraße 73, 06108 Halle/Saale, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10709 Sui, Daniel Z. GIS-based urban modelling: practices, problems, and prospects. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, Vol. 12, No. 7, Oct-Nov 1998. 651-71 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper reviews the practices, problems, and prospects of GIS-based urban modelling. The author argues that current stand-alone and various loose/tight coupling approaches for GIS-based urban modelling are essentially technology-driven without adequate justification and verification for the urban models being implemented. The absolute view of space and time embodied in the current generation of GIS also imposes constraints on the type of new urban models that can be developed. By reframing the future research agenda from a geographical information science (GISci) perspective, the author contends that the integration of urban modelling with GIS must proceed with the development of new models for the informational cities, the incorporation of multi-dimensional concepts of space and time in GIS, and the further extension of the feature-based model to implement these new urban models and spatial-temporal concepts according to the emerging interoperable paradigm."
Correspondence: D. Z. Sui, Texas A&M University, Department of Geography, College Station, TX 77843-3147. E-mail: D-Sui@tamu.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SG).

Copyright © 1999, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.