Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.
Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.
65:10062 Gutmann, Myron P.; Frisbie, W.
Parker; Blanchard, K. Stephen. A new look at the Hispanic
population of the United States in 1910. Historical Methods, Vol.
32, No. 1, Winter 1999. 5-19 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In
this article, we describe for the first time results of a successful
effort to obtain much higher quality data about the Hispanic population
of the United States in 1910 than has been previously available.... Our
report...is based on a new supplement to the frequently used Public Use
Sample of the 1910 census.... Our goal is to present here the first
serious description of the Hispanic population based on these data and
to show how our characterization of the Hispanic population differs
from what is already known."
This paper was originally
presented at the 1996 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of
America.
Correspondence: M. P. Gutmann, University of
Texas, Population Research Center, 1800 Main, Austin, TX 78712-1088.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.
65:10063 Belgium. Institut National de
Statistique (Brussels, Belgium). Total population and
population of Belgian nationality as of January 1, 1998.
[Population totale et belge au 1.1.1998.] Statistiques
Démographiques, No. 3A, 1998. 239 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
Estimates of the total population and the population of Belgian
nationality are presented for 1998. The estimates are presented by sex,
age, and marital status for the country as a whole and for its regions
and provinces.
For a previous estimate for 1997, see 63:40082.
Correspondence: Institut National de Statistique, 44 rue
de Louvain, Centre Albert, 8e étage, 1000 Brussels, Belgium.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:10064 Ebanks, G. Edward.
Contrasting population challenges: Cuba and the Dominican Republic
in the next millennium. Population Studies Centre Discussion
Paper, No. 98-9, ISBN 0-7714-2154-0. Aug 1998. 20 pp. University of
Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
"In this paper, the current demographic situation in Cuba and
the Dominican Republic will be highlighted. The goal is to see how they
have arrived at the present situation. As they enter the twenty first
century the focus is on where they are headed. The demographic
situation is considered with respect to...sustainable development and
how policies have brought them where they are and where they are likely
heading."
Correspondence: University of Western
Ontario, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:10065 Ebanks, G. Edward.
Neo-Malthusian dilemma: Latin America and the Caribbean.
Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 98-8, ISBN
0-7714-2153-2. Aug 1998. 12 pp. University of Western Ontario,
Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
"This paper
examines the neo-Malthusian dilemma with respect to the current
situation in Latin America and the Caribbean.... This dilemma comes
from a growing population and the prospect of providing a sustainable
development and improvement in the quality of life for this growing
population." The author "examines the size of the population
and its rate of growth and the contributing factors to these two,
namely fertility, mortality and international
migration."
Correspondence: University of Western
Ontario, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:10066 Kucera, Milan; Simek,
Miroslav. Population development in the Czech Republic in
1997. [Vývoj obyvatelstva Ceské Republiky v roce
1997.] Demografie, Vol. 40, No. 4, 1998. 233-46 pp. Prague, Czech
Republic. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
"In 1997 demographic
processes [in the Czech Republic] ran in accordance with recent years'
tendencies, i.e. the trend of postponing marriages as well as
[fertility] continued.... [Divorce] remained on the level of previous
years. [The decline in] the number of children born has temporarily
stopped but the...total fertility rate has still declined to 1.17
children per female. Furthermore, the number of abortions has
declined.... Mortality remained on the previous year's level.... [The]
number of the Republic's inhabitants has
diminished...."
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
65:10067 Lunn, David J.; Simpson, Stephen N.;
Diamond, Ian; Middleton, Liz. The accuracy of age-specific
population estimates for small areas in Britain. Population
Studies, Vol. 52, No. 3, Nov 1998. 327-44 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper presents a multi-level statistical analysis of the
accuracy of age-specific population estimates made for British local
authorities in 1991. The aim of this work is to identify the factors
that influence accuracy, and to investigate how these influences
interact. Our analyses show that the following area characteristics are
key factors: true population size; intercensal population change; and
percentages of unemployed residents, armed forces residents, and
students. In addition, we find that the overall type of method used to
calculate estimates is important, and that its effect varies both with
area characteristics and with age-group."
Correspondence:
D. J. Lunn, Imperial College School of Medicine at St. Mary's,
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, London W2 1PG, England.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:10068 Malaysia. Jabatan Perangkaan (Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia). Revised intercensal mid-year population
estimates: Malaysia 1981-1990. [Kajian semula anggaran penduduk
pertengahan tahun antara banci: Malaysia 1981-1990.] LC 98-949001. Apr
1997. vi, 54 pp. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. In Eng; Mal.
Revised
population estimates are presented for Malaysia for the years between
1981 and 1990. Data are from the 1980 and 1991 censuses. The estimates
are provided by age, sex, and ethnic group for the whole country and
its regions.
Correspondence: Department of Statistics
Malaysia, Jalan Cenderasari, 50514 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. E-mail:
jpmeto@po.jaring.my. Location: U.S. Library of Congress,
Washington, D.C.
65:10069 Monnier, Alain. The
current demographic situation: Europe and the developed countries
overseas. [La conjoncture démographique: l'Europe et les
pays développés d'outre-mer.] Population, Vol. 53, No. 5,
Sep-Oct 1998. 995-1,023 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This is the
latest in a series of annual reviews of current demographic trends in
the developed countries of the world. There are sections on population
trends, fertility, marriage and divorce, abortion, and
mortality.
For a previous review in this series, see 64:20072.
Correspondence: A. Monnier, Institut National d'Etudes
Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20,
France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:10070 Pelletier, Gilles. The
population of Quebec by community service region (CLSC), community
health department (DSC), and social health region (RSS) for the period
1981-2016. [La population du Québec par territoire de CLSC,
de DSC et de RSS, pour la période 1981 à 2016.]
Collection Données Statistiques et Indicateurs, No. 30, ISBN
2-550-25388-4. LC 96-189536. Feb 1996. vii, [68], 224 pp.
Ministère de la Santé et des Services Sociaux, Direction
Générale de la Planification et de l'Evaluation: Quebec,
Canada. In Fre.
Population estimates and projections are presented
for the province of Quebec and for its various regions and departments
as defined by the Ministry of Health and Social Services for the period
1981-2016. They are presented by sex and five-year age group and are
based primarily on data from the Canadian
census.
Correspondence: Ministère de la Santé
et des Services Sociaux, Direction Générale de la
Planification et de l'Evaluation, 1075 Chemin Ste. Foy, Quebec G1S 2M1,
Canada. Location: Cornell University Library, Ithaca, NY.
65:10071 Prioux, France. Recent
demographic trends. [L'évolution démographique
récente.] Population, Vol. 53, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1998. 755-83 pp.
Paris, France. In Fre.
Recent demographic trends in France are
presented and discussed. Topics covered include population dynamics and
immigration, fertility and maternal age, nuptiality, mortality by
cause, life expectancy, and age distribution. Some comparisons are made
with Europe as a whole.
Correspondence: F. Prioux, Institut
National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980
Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: prioux@ined.fr. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:10072 Sommer, Bettina; Voit,
Hermann. Population development, 1997.
[Bevölkerungsentwicklung 1997.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 12,
Dec 1998. 971-7 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Demographic trends
for 1997 in Germany are presented, with an emphasis on international
migration. The authors first discuss the rate of natural increase; then
they examine internal and international migration. Finally, they
calculate net population change for Germany as a whole and for the
states, and briefly consider changes in the population's age
structure.
Correspondence: B. Sommer, Statistisches
Bundesamt, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 11, 6200 Wiesbaden 1, Germany.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
65:10073 United States. Bureau of the Census
(Washington, D.C.). Population profile of the United
States: 1997. Current Population Reports, Series P-23: Special
Studies, No. 194, Sep 1998. 60 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This
report "brings together under one cover a wide range of sample
survey and census data on demographic, social, economic, and housing
trends for the [United States] as a whole. The report includes data
collected from 1920 to 1996 and reflects the most recent information
available on each topic as of 1997. In many cases, the data are shown
by race and Hispanic origin (of any race)." Tables and charts
provide information on national and state population trends,
metropolitan and nonmetropolitan trends, geographical mobility,
education, households and families, marital status and living
arrangements, fertility, disabilities, income, children, the aged, the
foreign-born, and home ownership.
Correspondence: U.S.
Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington,
D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.
65:10074 Andreev, Evgeni; Scherbov, Sergei;
Willekens, Frans. Population of Russia: what can we expect
in the future? World Development, Vol. 26, No. 11, Nov 1998.
1,939-55 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The paper presents the
first ever demographic scenarios for the regions of Russia. Scenarios
are developed for 49 oblasts (regions), six krays (territories), 21
republics, one autonomous oblast and two national cities, Moscow and
St. Petersburg. Five scenarios are considered: two optimistic...two
medium...and one pessimistic.... The scenarios are combinations of
three mortality...two fertility...and three migration scenarios.
Results and a discussion of the differences between the scenarios are
presented for 11 economic-geographic regions. The main findings of the
scenario analysis are: (a) the population decline, which started in
1992, continues in all scenarios; (b) aging of the population reaches
unprecedented levels; and (c) the spatial redistribution of the
population out of Siberia to the European part of Russia, in particular
the southern regions (North Caucasus and the Volga Region),
continues."
Correspondence: E. Andreev, Goskomstat of
Russia, Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, Department of
Demography, 51 Malaya Gruzinskaya Street, 123557 Moscow, Russia.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
65:10075 Argentina. Instituto Nacional de
Estadística y Censos [INDEC] (Buenos Aires, Argentina).
Population estimates for departments, 1990-2005. [Estimaciones
de la población por departamento, período 1990-2005.]
Serie Análisis Demográfico, No. 8, ISBN 950-896-037-X. LC
97-178102. 1996. 90 pp. Buenos Aires, Argentina. In Spa.
Population
estimates and projections are presented for Argentina by province and
district for the period 1990-2005.
Correspondence:
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, Centro
Estadístico de Servicios, Julio A. Roca, 615 P.B., 1067 Buenos
Aires, Argentina. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
65:10076 Attanayake, Chandra.
World demographic scenario of the 21st century, with special
reference to Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka Journal of Population Studies,
Vol. 1, No. 1, Feb 1998. 85-105, 125 pp. Colombo, Sri Lanka. In Eng.
"The objective of this paper...is to highlight the World
Demographic Scenario of the 21st century, with special reference to Sri
Lanka." Aspects considered include world population trends,
spatial distribution, migration, fertility, age distribution, health,
the present demographic situation in Sri Lanka, and the country's
National Action Plan for Reproductive Health.
Correspondence:
C. Attanayake, University of Sri Jayawardenepura, Department of
Geography, Gangodawila, Nugegoda, Sri Lanka. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:10077 Chin, J.; Mann, J.
Global surveillance and forecasting of AIDS. Bulletin of the
World Health Organization/Bulletin de l'Organisation Mondiale de la
Santé, Vol. 76, No. 5, 1998. 429-35 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In
Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The short-term forecasting of future
AIDS cases has been attempted by statistical extrapolations of the
observed curve of reported AIDS cases. In areas where such reporting is
very incomplete or has only recently started, extrapolation is not
possible and an epidemiologically-based forecasting model has been
developed to estimate the annual number of AIDS cases which may have
occurred and to project the annual number and distribution of AIDS
cases for up to ten years. This model, which relies on the current
understanding of the epidemiology and natural history of HIV infections
and on the available HIV serologic survey data, is used to provide
estimates and sort-term projections of AIDS cases for the USA, Europe,
Africa and the world."
Correspondence: J. Chin, World
Health Organization, Office of Research, Global Programme on AIDS,
Surveillance, Forecasting and Impact Assessment Unit, 1211 Geneva 27,
Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:10078 Denton, Frank T.; Feaver, Christine
H.; Spencer, Byron G. The future population of Canada, its
age distribution and dependency relations. Canadian Journal on
Aging/La Revue Canadienne du Vieillissement, Vol. 17, No. 1, Spring
1998. 83-109 pp. Guelph, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper makes available a number of projections of the
age-sex distribution of the Canadian population for the 45-year period
1996 to 2041 and comparisons with the previous 45-year period. The
projections combine assumptions relating to fertility, mortality, and
migration.... It is concluded that substantial aging of the Canadian
population appears virtually certain but, based on the demographic
evidence, the `dependency burden' is likely to remain below the peak
levels attained during the baby boom."
Correspondence:
B. G. Spencer, McMaster University, QSEP Research Institute,
Kenneth Taylor Hall, Room 426, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4M4, Canada.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:10079 India. Office of the Registrar
General (New Delhi, India). Census of India, 1991.
Population projections for India and states, 1996-2016. 1997.
[xi], 343 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
This report presents the
population projections for India and for its constituent states up to
the year 2016, based on data from the 1991 census, prepared by the
Technical Group on Population Projections. The projections are given by
age and sex for individual years from 1996 to 2016. Separate
projections are included on the urban
population.
Correspondence: Office of the Registrar
General, Ministry of Home Affairs, 2/A Mansingh Road, New Delhi 110
011, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:10080 Lutz, Wolfgang; Scherbov,
Sergei. Probabilistic population projections for
Germany. [Probabilistische Bevölkerungsprognosen für
Deutschland.] Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol.
23, No. 2, 1998. 83-109 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in
Eng; Fre.
The authors discuss a probabilistic approach to
projecting population trends in Germany. "This approach not only
has the advantage of supplying additional information regarding the
probability of alternative trends, it also allows for a synopsis of
numerous projections of various German institutes using a common
distribution.... The results of these probabilistic forecasts do not
differ greatly from those of other institutes, specifically with regard
to the most probable path of development, yet they also supply
quantitative information concerning the areas of uncertainty that
affect the development of the various demographic
variables."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schloßplatz 1, 2361
Laxenburg, Austria. E-mail: info@iiasa.ac.at. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:10081 Lutz, Wolfgang; Sanderson, Warren;
Scherbov, Sergei; Goujon, Anne. World population scenarios
for the 21st century. In: The future population of the world: what
can we assume today?, edited by Wolfgang Lutz. Rev. ed. 1996. 361-96
pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]:
Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
This chapter presents a synthesis of the expert views on likely
future global trends in fertility, mortality, and migration expressed
elsewhere in this book, together with two alternative scenarios for
global population in the twenty-first century: "one set in which
the fertility, mortality, and migration components are assumed to be
deterministic, independent of one another, and not subjected to any
feedbacks; and another set in which certain consistent `stories' are
defined and the components interact and react to certain outcomes of
the projections such as population growth and
aging."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:10082 Namibia. Central Statistics Office
(Windhoek, Namibia). Provisional population projections,
1991-2011, Namibia. Jul 1994. [134] pp. Windhoek, Namibia. In Eng.
Population projections are presented for Namibia for the period
1991-2011. High, medium, and low variants are included, and the
projections are provisional, pending further analysis of data from the
1991 census. They are presented by age and sex.
Correspondence:
Central Statistics Office, National Planning Commission, Private
Bag 13356, Windhoek, Namibia. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
65:10083 Paraguay. Dirección General de
Estadística, Encuestas y Censos (Asunción,
Paraguay). Paraguay: population projections for each
calendar year by department and district, 1995-2000. [Paraguay:
proyección de la población por año calendario,
segun departamento y distrito periodo 1995-2000.] 1997. 19 pp.
Asunción, Paraguay. In Spa.
Projections are presented for
the total population of Paraguay, and for each department and district,
up to the year 2000.
Correspondence: Dirección
General de Estadística, Encuestas y Censos, Naciones Unidas y
Zenteno, Zona Norte, Fernando de la Mora, Asunción, Paraguay.
E-mail: dgec@sce.cnc.una.py. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
65:10084 Ulrich, Ralf E. Gray or
colorful? Immigration and Germany's population in 2030. [Grau oder
bunt? Zuwanderungen und Deutschlands Bevölkerung im Jahre 2030.]
In: Migration und Gesundheit: Zustandsbeschreibung und Zukunftsmodelle,
edited by Matthias David, Theda Borde, and Heribert Kentenich. ISBN
3-929106-56-6. 1998. 17-32 pp. Mabuse: Frankfurt am Main, Germany. In
Ger.
After describing several waves of immigration to Germany since
1945, the author focuses on future population trends. He calculates
three scenarios based on differing assumptions about fertility,
mortality, and especially immigration. A fourth scenario replicates the
assumptions of the middle scenario but assumes a doubling of
naturalizations. All four scenarios project a significant increase in
Germany's foreign population. Demographic aging will also take
place.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:10085 United Nations. Centro
Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía [CELADE]
(Santiago, Chile). Latin America: population projections
1970-2050. [América Latina: proyecciones de
población 1970-2050.] Boletín
Demográfico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 31, No. 62, Pub. Order
No. LC/DEM/G.180. Jul 1998. 161 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
Population projections are presented for Latin America as a whole
and for 20 individual countries in Latin America and the Caribbean for
the period 1970-2050 by age and sex. Selected data on fertility,
mortality, natural increase, migration, and population growth are also
provided.
Correspondence: Centro Latinoamericano y
Caribeño de Demografía, Casilla 179-D, Santiago, Chile.
E-mail: jchackie@eclac.cl. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.
65:10086 Smith, Amy S.; Sink, Larry.
A more diversified America: state and local population changes,
1990-1997. Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 79, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1998.
26-37 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
The authors review U.S.
state and county population estimates by age, sex, race, and Hispanic
origin for the period 1990-1997. Tables and maps provide data on states
with largest total populations; metropolitan counties having population
increases to over 100,000; county estimates of total, Asian and Pacific
Islander, and Hispanic population; and increases in the Hispanic
population in metropolitan counties.
Correspondence: A. S.
Smith, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Washington, D.C.
20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
