Volume 64 - Number 4 - Winter 1998

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

64:40060 Andreev, E. M.; Darskii, L. E.; Khar'kova, T. L. Demographic history of Russia: 1927-1959. [Demograficheskaya istoriya Rossii: 1927-1959.] Demograficheskie Issledovaniya, No. 12, ISBN 5-89476-021-6. 1998. 187 pp. Statistiki Goskomstata Rossii, Otdelenie Demografii: Moscow, Russia; Informatika: Moscow, Russia. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
This book presents an effort to reconstruct the demographic history of Russia over the period 1927-1959, a period for which the necessary data for undertaking the relevant research were not available until recently. The study is based on the analysis of archival material as well as the use of indirect methods of demographic analysis. The authors first describe the census data and other sources of data available for the period. They then present separate analyses of the demographic trends in the periods 1927-1940 and 1946-1959. Consideration is given to the reliability of the resulting estimates and to the process of population reproduction over the time period under consideration.
Correspondence: Gosudarstvennyi Komitet Rossiiskoi Federatsii po Statistike, ul. Miasnickaia 39, 103450 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40061 Angioni, Daniela; Loi, Sergio; Puggioni, Giuseppe. The population of Sardinian communes from 1688 to 1991. [La popolazione dei communi sardi dal 1688 al 1991.] ISBN 88-87088-14-4. 1997. 144 pp. Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Dipartimento di Ricerche Economiche e Sociali: Cagliari, Italy; CUEC Editore: Cagliari, Italy. In Ita.
Estimates of the population of the communes of the Italian island of Sardinia from 1688 to 1991 are presented. The data are derived from censuses.
Correspondence: CUEC Editore, Via Is Mirrionis 12, 09123 Cagliari, Italy. E-mail: cuec@pengo.it. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40062 France. Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED] (Paris, France). INED's new historical survey:1500-1700. [La nouvelle enquête historique de l'INED: 1500-1700.] Population, Vol. 53, No. 1-2, Jan-Apr 1998. 179-270 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
This section contains three articles on aspects of the historical survey of the population of France from 1500 to 1700, which is being carried out under the direction of Jean-Noël Biraben. The first article, by Isabelle Séguy, provides a general introduction to the survey, its sources, and a bibliography. The second, by Biraben and Didier Blanchet, is concerned with the population of the Paris region since the sixteenth century. The third, by Noël Bonneuil, examines the processing of missing data in series produced from parish registers.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40063 Panzac, Daniel. Population and health in the Ottoman Empire (eighteenth to twentieth centuries). [Population et santé dans l'Empire ottoman (XVIIIe-XXe siècles).] Analecta Isisiana, No. 21, ISBN 975-428-089-4. LC 96-954739. 1996. vi, 213 pp. Les Editions Isis: Istanbul, Turkey. In Fre.
This is a collection of 11 previously published studies by the author on aspects of the population dynamics of the Ottoman Empire in the past. The papers are organized under three topics: aspects and effects of disease, health policies, and the question of numbers. This last section contains studies on the demographic background of the Turco-Egyptian confrontation of 1830-1840, the development of Alexandria as a cosmopolitan city in the nineteenth century, the population of Macedonia from 1820 to 1912, and population trends in Turkey from 1914 to 1927.
Correspondence: Editions Isis, Semsibey Sokak 10, Beylerbeyi, 81210 Istanbul, Turkey. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

64:40064 Srb, Vladimír. Population of the Czechoslovak Republic 1918-1938. [Obyvatelstvo Ceskoslovenské Republiky v letech 1918-1938.] Demografie, Vol. 40, No. 1, 1998. 3-22 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
The author analyzes population trends in Czechoslovakia between 1918 and 1938. Tabular data are provided on population size by territory and administrative division, population density, rural and urban population, age distribution, literacy, economically active population, nationality, religion, natural increase, fertility, life expectancy, emigration, and occupation.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40065 Wang, Yuesheng. A study on the size of the Chinese population in the middle and late eighteenth century. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 9, No. 4, 1997. 317-36 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The middle and late 18th century (1741-1799) is an important era in the demographic history of the Qing Dynasty.... The size of the population during that period is still debatable and the figures are sometimes logically inconsistent, making it difficult to understand the demographic change in the Qing Dynasty. It is therefore necessary to correct the errors and fill in the gaps. This study is such an attempt."
Correspondence: Y. Wang, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of Population Research, 5 Jianguomen Nei Da Jie 5 Hao, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

64:40066 Israel. Central Bureau of Statistics (Jerusalem, Israel). Population in localities with 2,000 or more inhabitants: selected demographic data from the 1995 census of population and housing. Current Briefings in Statistics, No. 11, Apr 1998. 81, xii pp. Jerusalem, Israel. In Eng; Heb.
"This publication presents data gathered from the entire population, during the 1995 Census of Population and Housing [of Israel]. The data are presented according to distribution by age, sex and religion in urban localities with 2,000 residents and more."
Correspondence: Central Bureau of Statistics, Hakirya, Romema, P.O. Box 13015, Jerusalem 91130, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40067 Italy. Istituto Nazionale di Statistica [ISTAT] (Rome, Italy); Italy. Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Rome, Italy). A reconstruction of the resident population of the Italian provinces by age and sex, 1982-1991. [Ricostruzione della popolazione residente per età e sesso nelle province italiane, anni 1982-1991.] Informazioni, No. 17, 1996. 414 pp. Rome, Italy. In Ita.
The results of a reconstruction of the population of Italy by age and sex for the period 1982-1991 are presented, based on data from the censuses of 1981 and 1991. The estimates are provided for provinces, regions and major divisions, and for Italy as a whole.
Correspondence: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, Via Cesare Balbo 11a, 00184 Rome, Italy. E-mail: dipdiff@istat.it. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40068 Japan. Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Annual report on current population estimates as of October 1st, 1997. Population Estimates Series, No. 70, Jun 1998. 98 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
This report presents estimates of the population of Japan as at October 1, 1997. The estimates are presented by age and sex for Japan as a whole and for each prefecture.
Correspondence: Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8668, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40069 Mostafa, Golam. Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Matlab--1997. Early indictors. May 1998. 12 pp. International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh [ICDDR, B]: Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
Data are presented for Matlab, Bangladesh, for 1997. Tables provide information on population characteristics, fertility and childbirth, contraceptive use, mortality, infant and child mortality, life expectancy, causes of death, marriage, prenatal and delivery care, and in- and out-migration.
Correspondence: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, G.P.O. Box 128, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40070 Netherlands. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (Voorburg, Netherlands). Population of the Netherlands by marital status, sex, and age, January 1, 1998. [Bevolking van Nederland naar burgerlijke staat, geslacht en leeftijd, 1 januari 1998.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 46, No. 8, Aug 1998. 21-4 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"The population figures (number of inhabitants) in this publication relate to members of the resident (`de jure') population who reside habitually in the Netherlands and who are recorded in one of the municipal population registers." Tabular data are included on population by marital status, sex, and age as of January 1, 1998.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40071 Pimienta Lastra, Rodrigo. Assessment and adjustment of census population data: 1930-1990. [Evaluación y ajuste de los datos censales de población: 1930-1990.] Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos, Vol. 13, No. 1, Jan-Apr 1998. 183-224; 239 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"This article assesses and corrects total population data by age and sex from the 1930-1990 [censuses], for nine regions in Mexico. The assessment is based on the Whipple, Myers and United Nations indexes, and the corrections were carried out with the United Nations 1/16 techniques."
Correspondence: R. Pimienta Lastra, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Departamento de Políitica y Cultura, Unidad Xochimilco, Calz. del Hueso 1100, Col. Villa Quietud, C.P. 04960, Mexico City, DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40072 Russia. Goskomstat Rossii (Moscow, Russia). The size of the population of the Russian Federation by cities, urban settlements, and regions as of January 1, 1997. [Chislennost' naseleniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii po gorodam, poselkam gorodskogo tipa i raionam na 1 Yanvarya 1997 g.] 1997. 218 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Population estimates are presented for the Russian Federation for 1997. The estimates are presented by regions, administrative divisions, urban areas and settlements, and rural areas.
For previous estimates for 1996, see 64:10076.
Correspondence: Goskomstat Rossii, Izmailovskoe Shosse 44, 105679 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40073 United Kingdom. Scotland. General Register Office (Edinburgh, Scotland). Mid-1997 population estimates: Scotland. ISBN 1-874451-52-4. 1998. ii, 18 pp. Edinburgh, Scotland. In Eng.
"This booklet summarises the Registrar General's mid-1997 estimates of the population of Scotland and its administrative areas. Data are given for council and health board areas. Some relevant historical information and a table giving land areas and population densities are also presented." The estimates are provided by age and sex.
For previous estimates for 1995, see 62:30060.
Correspondence: General Register Office for Scotland, Population Statistics Branch, Ladywell House, Ladywell Road, Edinburgh EH12 7TF, Scotland. E-mail: customer@gro-scotland.gov.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

64:40074 Dorbritz, Jürgen. Demographic change in East Germany--development and possible explanations. [Der demographische Wandel in Ostdeutschland--Verlauf und Erklärungsansätze.] Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 22, No. 2-3, 1997. 239-68 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"The decline in fertility, nuptiality and divorce in East Germany in the years 1990 and 1991 has often been described in its uniqueness.... Using a mainly age-specific description of the actual demographic situation, the article wishes to examine the relevance of sociological theories in explaining demographic change and to put forward theses [about] trends [in] the near future.... Overall, we can expect only a gradual renewed increase in the rate of births, marriages and divorces (despite the 1996 increase in the number of births) in East Germany."
Correspondence: J. Dorbritz, Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung, Friedrich-Ebert-Allee 4, Postfach 5528, 65180 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40075 Dumont, Gerard-François. The future of world population. [El porvenir de la poblacón del mundo.] In: La explosión demográfica y la regulación de la natalidad, edited by José Botella Llusiá and Salustiano del Campo Urbano. 1997. 85-96 pp. Editorial Síntesis: Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
Some future prospects concerning the dynamics of the world's population are examined. The author reviews both the probable and possible factors that will influence those trends. The prospects for population decline in the developed world are also considered, as are the limits to the ability to forecast future demographic trends.
Correspondence: G.-F. Dumont, Université de Paris-Sorbonne, Institut de Démographie Politique, 191 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40076 European Communities. Commission (Luxembourg). The demographic situation in the European Union, 1995. ISBN 92-827-7271-3. 1996. 51 pp. Luxembourg. In Eng.
This report looks at the medium and long-term perspectives for population developments in the countries of the European Union, focusing on the extent and acceleration of the process of demographic aging and its implications. Separate chapters are included on the demographic future and employment, and social protection.
For a previous report for 1994, see 62:10036.
Correspondence: European Communities, Office for Official Publications, 2985 Luxembourg. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40077 George, M. V.; Loh, Shirley; Verman, Ravi B. P. Impact of varying the component assumptions on projected total population and age structure in Canada. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 24, No. 1, 1997. 67-86 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The objective of this paper is to study the relative impact of the range of component assumptions, namely; fertility, mortality, and immigration, on the projected total population and age structure, using Canadian population projections from 1993 to 2041. The effect of the high or low assumptions of each component on the variability in projected population size and age structure is measured as the deviation from the medium scenario, while controlling for the effect of the other two components. Two factors are found to have significant effect on the variation of the projected total population: the range of the component assumption, and the pace at which the assumption reaches its horizon value. Each component has its own unique effect on each age group."
Correspondence: M. V. George, Statistics Canada, Population Projections Section, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40078 Hong Kong. Census and Statistics Department (Hong Kong, China). Hong Kong population projections 1997-2016. 1997. 56 pp. Hong Kong, China. In Eng; Chi.
Population projections by age and sex are presented for Hong Kong up to the year 2016 based on data from the 1996 by-census.
Correspondence: Census and Statistics Department, Demographic and Statistics Section, 6/F Fortress Tower, 250 King's Road, North Point, Hong Kong. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40079 Kupiszewski, Marek; Kupiszewska, Dorota. Projection of Central and East European populations--the model, the data and preliminary results. School of Geography Working Paper, No. 97/11, Dec 1997. 30 pp. University of Leeds, School of Geography: Leeds, England. In Eng.
"Over the last decade the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) [Baltic States, Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Germany, and Austria] have witnessed profound changes in the patterns of population development. In particular fertility has dropped, mortality has increased, internal migration in most countries has reduced and international migration has been soaring, in particular at the end of the eighties and in [the] early nineties.... The aim of the paper is to assess the scope of these changes within the regions and to investigate the potential demographic consequences of the changes." A multiregional and multilevel model is developed in order to make 15- and 30-year population projections for these countries with and without international migration using data for 1994. Particular attention is given to changes in age distribution and in the dependency burden.
Correspondence: University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40080 Rabusic, Ladislav. How to understand population projections. [Jak rozumet populacním projekcím.] Sociologický Casopis, Vol. 33, No. 3, Sep 1997. 289-308 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
"As a consequence of profound changes in the demographic behaviour of the Czech population, results of population projections have become an important part of transformation debates and discussions.... This paper informs Czech sociologists about some problems and about some critical points of population forecasting.... Then the results of some...recent Czech projections are confronted with real population development.... It is maintained that only those projections which use several scenarios are trustworthy...."
Correspondence: L. Rabusic, Masarykovy Univerzity, Skola Sociálních Studií, Filozofické Fakulty, Arne Nováka 1, 660 88 Brno, Czech Republic. E-mail: rabu@manwe.phil.muni.cz. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40081 Scherbov, Sergei. Population projections: new opportunities for sotftware development. IIASA Interim Report, No. IR-98-043, Jun 1998. 17 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"The major principles of the development of platform independent software for population projections based on WEB technology are discussed, and a prototype WEB-based demographic server is developed. The possibilities of using the WEB approach for broader issues of demographic analysis and training are discussed." The full text of this paper is available on the Web at http://www.iiasa.ac.at.
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. E-mail: info@iiasa.ac.at.

64:40082 United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division (New York, New York). World population projections to 2150. No. ST/ESA/SER.A/173, Pub. Order No. E.98.XIII.14. ISBN 92-1-151327-8. 1998. xiii, 41 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
These are the official UN world population projections, which are revised every two years, for the period 1950-2150. Five alternative projections for the world and its eight major regions are provided, based on different assumptions concerning fertility. "The medium-fertility scenario assumes that fertility will stabilize at the replacement-fertility level by 2055 and will continue at that level through 2150. This implies that the 1995 world population of 5.7 billion will increase by roughly 90 per cent by 2150 to reach 10.8 billion. The rate of increase in the population is expected to slow considerably over the next 155 years."
Correspondence: United Nations Secretariat, Population Division, Room DC2-1950, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40083 United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division (New York, New York). World population prospects: the 1996 revision. No. ST/ESA/SER.A/167, Pub. Order No. E.98.XIII.5. ISBN 92-1-151316-2. 1998. xiv, 839 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This volume presents the results of the United Nations 1996 Revision of the global population estimates and projections for the world, the more developed and less developed regions, least developed countries, major areas and countries. They are based on the fifteenth round of global demographic estimates and projections undertaken by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.... A magnetic tape and IBM-compatible diskettes containing the results of the present population estimates and projections are available for purchase. A description of the tape and diskettes is provided...."
For the 1994 revision, see 62:10074.
Correspondence: United Nations Secretariat, Population Division, Room DC2-1950, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40084 van Imhoff, Evert; Post, Wendy. Microsimulation methods for population projection. Population: An English Selection, Vol. 10, No. 1, 1998. 97-138 pp. Paris, France. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
The use of microsimulation methods for making population projections is examined. "A particular problem in microsimulation results from the fact that the projections are subject to random variation. Various sources of random variations are examined but the most important is the one we refer to as specification randomness: the more explanatory variables are included in the model, the greater the degree of random variation affecting the output of the model. After a brief survey of the microsimulation models which exist in demography, a number of the essential characteristics of microsimulation are illustrated using the KINSIM model for projecting the future size and structure of kinship networks."
For the French version of this article, see 64:10092.
Correspondence: E. van Imhoff, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. E-mail: imhoff@nidi.nl. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40085 Vasina, G.; Gorkina, A.; Nikitina, S. Forecasting the size of the population of the Russian Federation up to the year 2015. [Prognoz chislennosti naseleniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii po 2015 goda.] Voprosy Statistiki, No. 8, 1998. 78-87 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Three alternative projections of the population of Russia up to the year 2015 are presented. The total size of the population of Russia in 2015 is projected at between 130.3 and 147.2 million, as compared with a current population size of 146.7 million. The projections are also presented by region, and it is shown that migration will contribute significantly to the size of the population in some regions. The balance between the rural and urban population will probably remain unchanged over the period. Particular attention is given to the factors that have affected reproduction and led to the current low birth rate.
Correspondence: G. Vasina, Goskomstat Rossii, Izmailovskoe Shosse 44, 105679 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40086 Viet Nam. Statistical Publishing House (Hanoi, Viet Nam). Projections of population, school enrolment and labour force Vietnam, 1990-2005. [Du bao dan so, hoc sinh den truong va luc luong lao dong Viet Nam, 1990-2005.] Vietnam Population Census, 1989: Monograph, No. 2, 1994. viii, 195 pp. Hanoi, Viet Nam. In Eng; Vie.
Using data from the 1989 census of Viet Nam, this report presents projections of the total population by age and sex and by region and province for the period 1990-2005. There are also projections of school enrollment and the labor force.
Correspondence: Statistical Publishing House, General Statistical Office, 2 Hoang Van Thu, Hanoi, Viet Nam. Location: Cornell University Library, Ithaca, NY.

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

64:40087 Münz, Rainer; Ulrich, Ralf. Population growth: a global problem. [Bevölkerungswachstum: ein globales Problem.] In: Weltprobleme, edited by Peter J. Opitz. ISBN 3-89331-236-6. 1995. 35-70 pp. Bundeszentrale für Politische Bildung: Bonn, Germany. In Ger.
This is an overview of global population growth in the past, present, and future. After a brief historical account of population growth, a summary of projections to 2100, and a sketch of the growth differentials in various regions of the world, the authors examine the demographic transition in theory and reality, mortality decline and increases in life expectancy, and family size in various times and regions. They then turn to the effects of continued population growth, focusing on age structure, food supply, resource use, and governmental attitudes. There are also chapters on urbanization, population policy and family planning, and demographic trends in the developed countries, including migration.
Correspondence: R. Münz, Humboldt-Universität, Lehrstuhl für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Unter den Linden, 10099 Berlin, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:40088 Rutkevich, Mikhail N. Depopulation or extinction? [Depopulyatsiya ili vymiranie?] Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 23, No. 3, 1996. 104-10 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Recent population trends in Russia are reviewed, the focus being on the causes of the decrease in population size. While fertility has declined, it has not been offset by equally lower mortality. The author notes that in some regions, in-migration is able to compensate for the fact that the fertility rate is below replacement level. He also discusses demographic differences between urban and rural areas, and suggests that major causes of the current low fertility level are the traumatic decline in the standard of living and massive unemployment in Russia.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).


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