Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.
Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.
64:30097 Stpiczynski, Tadeusz.
The population of the Polish lands during World War I and in the
Polish state from 1919 to 1939. [Ludnosc ziem polskich podczas
pierwszej wojny swiatowej oraz panstwa polskiego w latach 1919-1939.]
Przeszlosc Demograficzna Polski: Materialy i Studia, No. 20, 1997.
73-93 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng.
"Estimated
data show that during the first world war the population of Polish
lands decreased by about 4 million. After the regaining of
independence, this number grew from 26.3 million in 1918 to 34.8
million in 1939. The 1931 survey demonstrated that as little as 27% of
the population lived in towns while the percentage of national
minorities totaled 30. The period under examination, with the exception
of the first five years, witnessed a steady tendency towards a
declining level of births--by 26% and deaths--by 22% while the
coefficient of the natural birth rate fell by 30%. The general level of
births among the village population was 50% larger than in the towns,
and the level of deaths--by 30%. A characteristic feature was permanent
and seasonal agrarian migration."
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.
64:30098 Bolivia. Instituto Nacional de
Estadística (La Paz, Bolivia). Bolivia: population
estimates and projections, 1950-2050. Summary version. [Bolivia:
estimaciones y proyecciones de la población 1950-2050.
Versión resumida.] Dec 1994. 27 pp. La Paz, Bolivia. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Bolivia up
to the year 2050. The data are presented by sex and by five-year age
group.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de
Estadística, Plaza Mario Guzmán No. 1, Casilla No. 6129,
La Paz, Bolivia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30099 Carvalho, José A. M.
de. Demographic dynamics in Brazil: recent trends and
perspectives. Brazilian Journal of Population Studies, Vol. 1,
1997-1998. 5-23 pp. São Paulo, Brazil. In Eng.
"The
evolution of the Brazilian population size, its growth rate and
relative age structure between 1940 and 1991 as well as its expected
trajectory until 2020 are presented in this paper. After briefly
considering the quasi-stability of the Brazilian population in the
past, the role of fast fertility decline is emphasised in the current
changing age structure."
Correspondence: J. A. Magno
de Carvalho, Federal University of Minas Gerais, CEDEPLAR, Rua Curitiba
832, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
64:30100 Dureau, Françoise; Florez,
Carmen E. Colombian demographic trends: from the national
to the local. [Dinámicas demográficas colombianas:
de lo nacional a lo local.] Documento CEDE, No. 96-01, LC 97-126270.
Feb 1996. 50 pp. Universidad de los Andes, Centro de Estudios sobre
Desarrollo Económico [CEDE]: Bogotá, Colombia. In Spa.
The authors examine trends in population growth and its components
in Colombia. The modalities of the country's demographic transition are
first outlined. Urbanization and migration are then analyzed.
Population growth in and around Bogotá is discussed, with a
focus on characteristics of migration to the city. Residential dynamics
of Soacha, a region of Bogotá, are
described.
Correspondence: Universidad de los Andes, Centro
de Estudios Sobre Desarrollo Económico, Apartado Aereo 4976,
Bogotá, Colombia. Location: U.S. Library of Congress,
Washington, D.C.
64:30101 Miettinen, Anneli.
Population data on Finland 1900-1997. Yearbook of Population
Research in Finland, Vol. 34, 1997. 173-80 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In
Eng.
Tabular data are presented on population dynamics in Finland
from 1900 to 1997. Information is included on resident population, age
distribution, age-specific fertility rate, reproduction rate, maternal
age, legitimate and illegitimate live births, abortions, marriages,
consensual unions, divorces, family characteristics, deaths, life
expectancy, international and internal migration, the labor force, and
unemployment.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30102 Paraguay. Dirección General de
Estadística y Censos (Asunción, Paraguay).
Paraguay: estimates and projections of the national and
departmental population by urban and rural areas, sex, and age group.
1990-2025 for the whole country and 1990-2000 for departments.
[Paraguay: estimación y proyección de la población
nacional y por departamento, segun area urbana-rural, sexo y grupos de
edad. Periodo 1990-2025 (nacional). Periodo 1990-2000 (departamental).]
1996. 61 pp. Asunción, Paraguay. In Spa.
Population
estimates and projections are presented for Paraguay for the whole
country up to 2025 and for departments up to 2000. They are presented
by rural and urban area, age, and sex.
Correspondence:
Dirección General de Estadística, Encuestas y
Censos, Luis A. Herrera 1010, c/EE.UU., C.C. 1118, Asunción,
Paraguay. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30103 Paraguay. Dirección General de
Estadística, Encuestas y Censos (Asunción,
Paraguay). Paraguay: population estimates and projections
by district and by age and sex for the period 1990-2000.
[Paraguay: estimación y proyección de la población
por distrito segun sexo y grupos de edad, periodo 1990-2000.] May 1995.
107 pp. Asunción, Paraguay. In Spa.
Population estimates and
projections are presented for Paraguay for the period 1990-2000 by
district, age, and sex.
Correspondence: Dirección
General de Estadística, Encuestas y Censos, Luis Alberto de
Herrera 1010, Asunción, Paraguay. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
64:30104 Peru. Instituto Nacional de
Estadística e Informática (Lima, Peru).
Peru: total population by urban and rural area, by department,
province, and district. [Peru: población total por area
urbana y rural, segun departamentos, provincias y distritos.] Pub.
Order No. 820-95-SG-OEPI. Oct 1995. 162 pp. Lima, Peru. In Spa.
Population estimates are presented for Peru by department,
district, and province for 1995, together with projections for the year
2000. The data are provided separately for the rural and urban
populations.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de
Estadística e Informática, Avenida 28 de Julio No. 1056,
Lima 1, Peru. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30105 Portugal. Instituto Nacional de
Estatística [INE] (Lisbon, Portugal). Estimates of
the resident population by age and sex as at December 31, 1981 to 1990
and from June 30, 1982 to 1990, by region and district.
[Estimativas de população residente segundo o sexo em
31.XII de 1981 a 1990 e 30.VI de 1982 a 1990, por NUTS III e
concelhos.] Série Estimativas Provisórias, No. 22, ISBN
972-673-139-9. 1996. 246, [9] pp. Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
Official population estimates are presented for Portugal for the
1980s using data from the 1981 and 1991 censuses. The estimates are
presented by sex for regions (NUTS) and districts
(concelhos).
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de
Estatística, Avenida António José de Almeida 2,
1000 Lisbon Codex, Portugal. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
64:30106 Razzaque, Abdur; Nahar, Lutfun;
Sarder, Abdul M.; van Ginneken, Jeroen K.; Shaikh, M. A.
Kashem. Demographic Surveillance System--Matlab. Volume
twenty nine: 1996 socio-economic census. ICDDR, B Scientific
Report, No. 83, ISBN 984-551-143-0. Mar 1998. ix, 72 pp. International
Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh [ICDDR, B]: Dhaka,
Bangladesh. In Eng.
"This report presents results on the 1996
socioeconomic census and comparison of selected socio-demographic
variables with two other censuses (1982 and 1974) in the MCH-FP and
Comparison areas of Matlab [Bangladesh]. The comparison shows that the
population in both the MCH-FP and the Comparison areas has increased
during the past 20 years, but the increase has slowed down in recent
years.... This decline in growth has affected the age structure: the
proportion of young population has
declined."
Correspondence: International Centre for
Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, G.P.O. Box 128, Dhaka 1000,
Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30107 Williamson, P.; Birkin, M.; Rees, P.
H. The estimation of population microdata by using data
from small area statistics and samples of anonymised records.
Environment and Planning A, Vol. 30, No. 5, May 1998. 785-816 pp.
London, England. In Eng.
"Traditionally, estimates of the
number of people in small areas (the smallest geographical units for
which data are available) have been disaggregated only by age and sex.
More recently, much research effort has been directed towards
developing some form of enhanced small-area population estimation, in
which the population in a small area is disaggregated not only by age
and sex, but also by a wide range of additional economic and social
characteristics. Solutions to this problem currently include
account-based demographic models, often used by local
authorities."
Correspondence: P. Williamson,
University of Liverpool, Department of Geography, Liverpool L69 3BX,
England. E-mail: william@liv.ac.uk. Location: Princeton
University Library (UES).
Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.
64:30108 Alders, M.; de Beer, J.
Probability distribution of population forecasts.
[Kansverdeling van de bevolkingsprognose.] Maandstatistiek van de
Bevolking, Vol. 46, No. 4, Apr 1998. 8-11 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In
Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"On the basis of assumptions on the
probability distribution of future fertility, life expectancy and net
migration, the probability distribution of the future size and age
structure of the population [of the Netherlands] can be calculated....
The calculations are based on three main assumptions.... On the basis
of these assumptions it can be calculated that the probability of the
population size in 2010 lying between 15.8 million and 17.2 million is
90%."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30109 Finland. Tilastokeskus (Helsinki,
Finland). Population projection by municipalities,
1998-2030. [Väestöennuste kunnittain
1998-2030/Befolkningsprognos kommunvis 1998-2030.]
Väestö/Befolkning/Population, No. 6, ISBN 951-727-432-7.
1998. 104 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Fin. with sum. in Eng; Swe.
"This publication contains the results of Statistics Finland's
1998 population projection by municipality until the year 2030. The
publication provides information about the development of the total
number of population in the whole country, regions and municipalities
and data on the whole country and regions by age group.... The previous
Population Projection was published in
1995...."
Correspondence: Tilastokeskus, P.O. Box 3B,
00022 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
64:30110 George, M. V.; Raby, Ronald.
Current approaches for estimating and projecting sub-national
populations in Canada. In: International Population
Conference/Congrès International de la Population: Beijing,
1997, Volume 3. 1997. 1,195-215 pp. International Union for the
Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liège, Belgium. In Eng.
The authors discuss various methods of estimating and projecting
national and subnational populations in Canada. Sections are included
on the evolution of the current estimation methodology; data sources
and evaluation; population projections by age and sex; and use of
population estimates and projections.
Correspondence: M. V.
George, Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Ottawa, Ontario K1A
0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30111 Lutz, Wolfgang; Scherbov,
Sergei. An expert-based framework for probabilistic
national population projections: the example of Austria. European
Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie,
Vol. 14, No. 1, Mar 1998. 1-17 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with
sum. in Fre.
"The traditional way of dealing with uncertainty
in population projections through high and low variants is
unsatisfactory because it remains unclear what range of uncertainty
these alternative paths are assumed to cover. But probabilistic
approaches have not yet found their way into official population
projections. This paper proposes an expert-based probabilistic approach
that seems to meet important criteria for successful application to
national and international projections: (1) it provides significant
advantages to current practice, (2) it presents an evolution of current
practice rather than a discontinuity, (3) it is scientifically sound,
and (4) it is applicable to all countries."
Correspondence:
W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. E-mail: lutz@iiasa.ac.at.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30112 Ramachandran, K. V.
Sub-national population projections for planning and policy
formulation: experience of India. In: International Population
Conference/Congrès International de la Population: Beijing,
1997, Volume 3. 1997. 1,217-44 pp. International Union for the
Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liège, Belgium. In Eng.
"This paper presents an overview of the experience of India in
making national, state and local area population projections, reviews
the methodologies adopted and presents an evaluation of the results.
Suggestions have been made in the paper for improving the methodology
and assumptions in these projections."
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30113 Shimizu, Masato.
Population projections by prefecture: 1995-2025. Jinko Mondai
Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 53, No. 2, 1997. 50-73 pp.
Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population projections are presented for
Japan by prefecture up to the year 2025.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30114 Simek, Miroslav.
Perspectives of the population development of the Czech Republic by
2020. [Perspektivy populacního vývoje Ceské
republiky do roku 2020.] Statistika, No. 5, 1998. 205-14 pp. Prague,
Czech Republic. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
"The significant
changes in the population development of the 1990s reflected into the
new demographic projection of the Czech Statistical Office. The
document was made by a component method in three variants differing in
scenarios of the expected trend in fertility, mortality and migration.
The horizon of the projection was the year 2020. The results confirmed
development tendencies of the previous forecasts and showed that the
Czech Republic was likely to diminish in the number of population and
certainly to grow old."
Correspondence: M. Simek,
Ceský Statistický Úrad, Prague, Czech Republic.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
64:30115 Smith, Stanley K.
Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population
projection models. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 13,
No. 4, Dec 1997. 557-65 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This article is a review of--and response to--a special issue
of Mathematical Population Studies that focused on the relative
performance of simpler vs. more complex population projection models. I
do not attempt to summarize or comment on each of the articles in the
special issue, but rather present an additional perspective on several
points: definitions of simplicity and complexity, empirical evidence
regarding population forecast accuracy, the costs and benefits of
disaggregation, the potential benefits of combining forecasts, criteria
for evaluating projection models, and issues of economic efficiency in
the production of population projections."
For the articles
referred to, see 62:10075, 62:10084-5, 62:10087, and 62:10091-3.
Correspondence: S. K. Smith, University of Florida, Bureau
of Economic and Business Research, 221 Matherly Hall, Gainesville, FL
32611-7145. E-mail: sksmith@ufl.edu. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
64:30116 Soliani, Lamberto; Manfredini,
Matteo. Growth, employment and "necessary"
immigration: a discussion using demographic data for
Emilia-Romagna. [Sviluppo, occupazione e immigrazione
"necessaria": dibattito con i dati demografici
dell'Emilia-Romagna.] Polis, Vol. 11, No. 2, Aug 1997. 255-76, 337 pp.
Bologna, Italy. In Ita. with sum. in Eng.
"In Emilia-Romagna
[Italy] and in Central and Northern Italy the reduction in the number
of young people, caused by the falling birth rate, has started to
involve individuals in working and reproductive age groups.... With
demographic data for the Emilia-Romagna region six scenarios are
constructed concerning the effects of an increase in fertility rates
(to levels of equilibrium) and workforce participation (to European
levels) and the demographic differences between younger and older
generations on the job market. Estimates are calculated concerning the
size of immigration flows deemed necessary for immediate production
needs and for re-balancing the population's age structure in the
future."
Correspondence: L. Soliani, University of
Parma, Via Università 12, 43100 Parma, Italy. Location:
Cornell University Library, Ithaca, NY.
Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.
64:30117 Indonesia. Central Bureau of
Statistics (Jakarta, Indonesia); Indonesia. State Ministry of
Population/National Family Planning Coordinating Board (Jakarta,
Indonesia); Indonesia. Ministry of Health. Institute for Health
Research and Development (Jakarta, Indonesia); Macro International.
Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS] (Calverton, Maryland).
Trends in demographic, family planning, and health indicators in
Indonesia, 1961-1994. May 1996. v, 39 pp. Macro International,
Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Calverton, Maryland. In Eng.
"This report highlights important trends in key population,
family planning, and health indicators in Indonesia over the past two
decades. It was prepared with the primary objective of providing
information needed by policymakers and program administrators to asses
the current situation and to design more effective population, family
planning, and maternal and child health programs. In particular, the
report addresses the prevailing demographic situation and describes
trends in fertility, family planning, maternal and child health, and
infant and child mortality."
Correspondence: Macro
International, Demographic and Health Surveys, 11785 Beltsville Drive,
Calverton, MD 20705-3119. E-mail: reports@macroint.com. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30118 Kamarás, Ferenc.
Changes in birth and fertility over the past 125 years. [A
születési mozgalom és a termékenység
az elmúlt 125 évben.] Statisztikai Szemle, Vol. 74, No.
8-9, Aug-Sep 1996. 662-79 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in
Eng.
"The author reviews the characteristic features of the
125 year history of changes in Hungarian indicators of births and
fertility. In the first part of the study demographic transition is
analysed from the end of [the nineteenth century] up to World War II.
Then the fluctuation of fertility over the 25-30 years after the War
(up to the late 1970s) as well as the fertility in the last 15 years
are...dealt with. Finally the author makes the reader acquainted with
the correlations of family planning and fertility as well as
with...international data on fertility."
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30119 Klinger, András.
Population development in Hungary. [Magyarország
Népességfejlodése.] Statisztikai Szemle, Vol. 74,
No. 8-9, Aug-Sep 1996. 629-50 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum.
in Eng.
The author reviews demographic trends in Hungary over the
past 100 years. Aspects considered include population growth, sex
ratio, age distribution, marital status, education, labor force, and
occupations.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30120 Martine, George; Camargo,
Líscio. Growth and distribution of the Brazilian
population: recent trends. Brazilian Journal of Population
Studies, Vol. 1, 1997-1998. 59-83 pp. São Paulo, Brazil. In Eng.
"The object of this paper is to summarise the leading
demographic tendencies of the past decades [in Brazil], focusing mainly
on the 1970-80 period.... This paper is divided into two parts: the
analysis [of] population growth and of redistribution patterns. This is
followed by a reflection on the implications [of] these trends for
population policy."
Correspondence: G. Martine, United
Nations Population Fund, 220 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30121 Münz, Rainer; Ulrich,
Ralf. Population growth and population policy.
[Bevölkerungswachstum und Bevölkerungspolitik.] In:
Grundprobleme der Entwicklungsregionen: der Süden an der Schwelle
zum 21. Jahrhundert, edited by Peter J. Opitz. No. 1997, ISBN
3-406-42030-3. 1997. 119-34 pp. C. H. Beck: Munich, Germany. In Ger.
After giving an overview of global population growth and the
demographic processes underlying it, the authors summarize the
population and family planning programs necessary to meet the
challenges of the present and the future.
Correspondence:
R. Münz, Humboldt-University, Department of Social Sciences,
10099 Berlin, Germany. E-mail: rainer.muenz@sowi.hu-berlin.de.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
64:30122 Netherlands. Centraal Bureau voor de
Statistiek (Voorburg, Netherlands). Demographic figures by
province, 1992-1997. [Demografische cijfers per provincie,
1992-1997.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 46, No. 4, Apr 1998.
19-31 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut.
This article contains
tabular data on population trends in the Netherlands by province for
the period 1992-1997. Information is included on population and
population growth, nuptiality, fertility, mortality, changes of
residence, and internal and international
migration.
Correspondence: Centraal Bureau voor de
Statistiek, Prinses Beatrixlaan 428, Postbus 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg,
Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
