Volume 64 - Number 2 - Summer 1998

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

64:20720 Barkalov, Nicholas B. On solutions of the cohort parity analysis model. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 7, No. 1, 1998. 79-107, 110 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The cohort parity analysis (CPA) model of David et al. (1988) is studied formally as a three-state parity-progression table. The general solution is found in a form of convex combination of a finite set of solutions which are described explicitly. A parameterization is suggested for a broad subset of solutions which includes two extreme solutions studied in the original publication and maintains the dimension of the entire set. The CPA solution is also treated as a random variate distributed uniformly on the set of all possible solutions. An algorithm is given for computing the marginal distributions without Monte Carlo simulation."
Correspondence: N. B. Barkalov, DGI Incorporated, 700 North Fairfax Street, Alexandria, VA 22314. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20721 Ghilagaber, Gebrenegus. On the problem of identification in multiplicative intensity-rate models with multiple interactions. Department of Statistics Research Report, No. 1998-1, 1998. 16 pp. Uppsala Universitet, Department of Statistics: Uppsala, Sweden. In Eng.
"In this paper we examine a multiplicative intensity model in which a covariate interacts with two other covariates in the same model. We demonstrate, analytically, that in such situations a log-linear parameterization based on two pairs of baseline levels cannot be transformed, uniquely, to the, otherwise equivalent, multiplicative parameterization. We show that the problem lies in an oversight of the conditional independence between the two covariates interacting with a common third covariate. As a solution, therefore, we propose an approach that takes due account of such dependence. Our proposed approach uses a common baseline level for the three covariates involved in interaction while estimating the corresponding relative intensities. The issues addressed are illustrated with a demographic data set involving the estimation of rates of transition to parenthood."
Correspondence: Uppsala University, Department of Statistics, P.O. Box 513, 751 20 Uppsala, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20722 Krishnamoorty, S.; Mathew, Anil C. Estimating the person years lived in the infant and childhood ages. Janasamkhya, Vol. 12, No. 1-2, 1994. 151-7 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"This paper proposes the use of Weibull Hazard function to obtain [an] improved estimate of person years lived in infant and childhood ages. As the estimation procedure is too involved for those who construct life tables, an easier method of obtaining the same is provided.... An illustrative application of the procedure is also presented." The data used for this illustration are from the Sample Registration System of India.
Correspondence: S. Krishnamoorty, Bharathiar University, Department of Population Studies, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu 641 046, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20723 Lalu, N. M.; Krishnan, P. Generalized Lotka distribution incorporating migration. Janasamkhya, Vol. 12, No. 1-2, 1994. 99-106 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"This paper proposes to introduce the migration component into the stable population model and examine the stability of the age distribution. The analysis [is restricted] to one sex as [has been] done by others." The model is applied to Canadian data.
Correspondence: N. M. Lalu, University of Alberta, Department of Sociology, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20724 Miyata, Yuzuru. A dynamic population model incorporating a variety of urban functions. Papers in Regional Science, Vol. 76, No. 2, Apr 1997. 229-56 pp. Urbana, Illinois. In Eng.
"This paper aims to investigate the theoretical background of Allen and Sanglier's model, slightly modifying it. We construct a dynamic two-city population model in which there are different types of urban functions in the cities. Population dynamics of both cities are expressed in terms of a system of differential equations of the logistic type, taking account of spatial interaction between them. For this model, both the existence condition and the globally asymptotic stability of the equilibrium state are theoretically explored. Then configurations of equilibrium population distribution that correspond to different combinations of the numbers of types of urban functions in two cities are also examined. Finally, some numerical simulations are done in order to supplement the theoretical considerations."
Correspondence: Y. Miyata, Toyohashi University of Technology, Department of Socio-Economic Planning, Tempaku, Toyohashi 441, Japan. E-mail: miyata@hse.tut.ac.jp. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20725 Nelissen, Jan H. M. Institutional households: modeling and forecasting by means of microsimulation. [Institutionele huishoudens: modellering en vooruitberekening met behulp van microsimulatie.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 2, 1996. 29-59 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"This paper describes the modelling of institutional households [in the Netherlands] within the context of microsimulation model NEDYMAS.... We modelled the following categories: homes for the aged (124,000 persons in 1994), nursing homes (52,500), institutions for the physically and mentally disabled (33,000), psychiatric institutions (23,200) and other institutions.... The results show a 20 percent increase between now and 2010 and a further growth from 2020 on. It also shows that a large substitution took place in the past."
Correspondence: J. H. M. Nelissen, Katholieke Universiteit Brabant, Faculteit Sociale Wetenschappen, Postbus 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20726 Pol, Louis G. Demographic methods in applied demography: an American perspective. Genus, Vol. 53, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1997. 159-76 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Ita; Fre.
"The purpose of this paper is to explore the usage of demographic methods in applied demography [in the United States]. The reason for the exploration is to document the range of methods being used to help address a wide range of public and private sector opportunities and problems. A limited content analysis of applied studies is performed."
Correspondence: L. G. Pol, University of Nebraska, Department of Marketing, Omaha, NE 68182. E-mail: lpol@cbafaculty.unomaha.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20727 Rodríguez, Germán; Trussell, James. Fitting the Schwartz-Barrett-Marshall model. OPR Working Paper, No. 97-3, Apr 1997. 29 pp. Princeton University, Office of Population Research [OPR]: Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
"These notes summarize work done in fitting the Schwartz-Barrett-Marshall model of conception probabilities. Section 1 derives the results needed for calculating the estimates and their standard errors. Section 2 documents the S functions that actually do the work. Sections 3 to 5 report selected results for the Barrett-Marshall and the Wilcox-Weinberg datasets."
Correspondence: Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20728 Rodríguez, Germán; Goldman, Noreen. Improved estimation procedures for multilevel models with binary response: a case study. OPR Working Paper, No. 97-2, Oct 1997. 16 pp. Princeton University, Office of Population Research [OPR]: Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
"In this paper, we fit three-level random intercept models to actual data [related to health care in Guatemala] for two binary outcomes, to assess whether refined approximation procedures, namely penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) and second-order improvements to MQL [marginal quasi-likelihood] and PQL...underestimate the underlying parameters. The extent of bias is assessed by two standards of comparison: exact maximum likelihood estimates, based on a Gauss-Hermite numerical quadrature procedure, and a set of Bayesian estimates, obtained from Gibbs sampling with diffuse priors. The results indicate that second-order PQL estimates provide a considerable improvement over the other approximations, but all the methods of approximate inference result in substantial underestimation of the fixed and random effects when the random effects are sizable."
This paper was originally presented at the 1997 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1998, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.