Volume 63 - Number 4 - Winter 1997

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

63:40073 Del Panta, Lorenzo; Livi Bacci, Massimo; Pinto, Giuliano; Sonnino, Eugenio. The Italian population from the Middle Ages to the present day. [La popolazione italiana dal medioevo a oggi.] Storia e Società, ISBN 88-420-4838-0. 1996. viii, 334 pp. Editori Laterza: Bari, Italy. In Ita.
This is a history of demographic trends in Italy from the Middle Ages up to the present day. It is divided into the following four chapters: From late antiquity to the middle of the sixteenth century, by Giuliano Pinto. The modern era (sixteenth to eighteenth centuries), by Eugenio Sonnino. From the middle of the eighteenth century to the present day, by Lorenzo Del Panta. Italy and Europe, by Massimo Livi Bacci. Particular attention is paid to how demographic trends were affected by external socioeconomic factors.
Correspondence: Editori Laterza, Piazza Umberto 1/54, 70121 Bari, Italy. Location: New York University Library, New York, New York.

63:40074 Lee, James Z.; Wang, Feng. Malthusian mythologies and Chinese realities: from 200 million to 1.2 billion Chinese, 1700-2000. In: International Population Conference/Congrès International de la Population: Beijing, 1997, Volume 1. 1997. 109-48 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liège, Belgium. In Eng.
The distinctive features of the population growth that occurred in China from 1700 to the present are analyzed in this paper. "The paper is divided into four sections. In section one, we first use three different indices--life expectancy, per capita food production, and per capita food consumption--to show that population growth from 1700 to the present did not produce Malthus' anticipated mortality crisis or impending crisis. We then establish that China was able to avoid such famine due both to a process at the societal level, which we describe in section two, whereby population growth induced technological innovation and subsequent economic growth, and to a feedback loop at the individual level, which we describe in section three, whereby changing economic circumstances induced people to change their population behaviour and regulate their family size and composition. Finally we conclude in section four with a brief reassessment of the Malthusian model, and current Chinese success in and preoccupation with population control, in light of our findings on the Chinese demographic system."
Correspondence: J. Z. Lee, California Institute of Technology, Division of Humanities and Social Science, Pasadena, CA 91125. E-mail: jzl@cco.caltech.edu. Source: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40075 Lovell, W. George; Lutz, Christopher H. The Maya population of Guatemala. In: Demographic diversity and change in the Central American Isthmus, edited by Anne R. Pebley and Luis Rosero-Bixby. 1997. 117-32 pp. RAND: Santa Monica, California. In Eng.
Population trends in Guatemala are analyzed from the pre-conquest period to the present day, focusing particularly on the Mayan population. The authors note that after the initial demographic collapse following the conquest, the Mayan population has rebounded and now numbers some 4 million, or about 43% of the total population; this is about twice the size of the Mayan population at the time of the Spanish conquest in the sixteenth century.
Correspondence: W. G. Lovell, Queen's University, Department of Geography, Kingston, Ontario K7L 3N6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40076 Pérez, Héctor. Estimates of the indigenous population of Central America (from the sixteenth to the twentieth centuries). In: Demographic diversity and change in the Central American Isthmus, edited by Anne R. Pebley and Luis Rosero-Bixby. 1997. 97-115 pp. RAND: Santa Monica, California. In Eng.
The author presents estimates of the indigenous population for the countries of Central America from the period immediately preceding the Spanish conquest up to the present day. The estimates are based on a review of the published literature and are presented in a series of maps.
Correspondence: H. Pérez, Universidad de Costa Rica, Centro de Investigaciones Históricas, Apartado 377-2050, San José, Costa Rica. E-mail: hperez@cariari.ucr.ac.cr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40077 Popov, Vasilii P. The causes of the decrease in the population of the Russian Federation following World War II. [Prichiny sokrashcheniya chislennosti naseleniya RSFSR posle velikoi otechest vennoi voiny.] Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, No. 10, 1994. 76-94 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Previously secret data sources are used to analyze demographic trends in Russia following World War II. The author first notes that the high levels of excess mortality in both the civilian and military populations between 1941 and 1945 caused major demographic disruptions. An initial increase in fertility in 1946 was followed by a decline in 1947 due to famine, and fertility continued to fluctuate in subsequent years due primarily to food shortages. Registered deaths from starvation in 1947 exceeded 400,000, and there were many more deaths that were not registered. The economically active population declined from 56.7% before the war to 31.5% after the war, and its composition became more female. Communicable diseases continued as a major cause of infant mortality throughout the 1940s.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

63:40078 Rosina, Alessandro. The population of the Veneto during the period of Austrian rule. An attempt at a reconstruction (1816-1865). [La popolazione del Veneto durante la dominazione austriaca. Un tentativo di ricostruzione (1816-65).] Bollettino di Demografia Storica, No. 23, 1995. 97-118 pp. Bologna, Italy. In Ita.
Population trends in the Veneto, a region in northeastern Italy, are analyzed over the course of the nineteenth century. The method of inverse projection is applied to data from the available Austrian sources.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40079 Yang, Bin. Differentiation and analysis of the population documents in the early Qing Dynasty. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 9, No. 1, 1997. 1-8 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Studying the population of any given historical period and any given geographic area requires a knowledge of the size of that population. Using historical records and facts, this article makes detailed differentiation, analysis, and revision of the population of Guizhou Province [China] in the early period of the Qing Dynasty, suggesting that the population of Guizhou in the early years of Qing Dynasty was around 2 million, instead of such earlier estimations as 600,000-700,000 or around 1 million."
Correspondence: B. Yang, Guizhou University, Demographic Research Center, 180 Xiangsi Road, Guiyang, Guizhou, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

63:40080 Annie E. Casey Foundation (Baltimore, Maryland). Kids count data book: state profiles of child well-being. 1997. 174 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
This report presents a selection of data on the status of children in the United States at both national and state levels. Data are included on low-birthweight babies; infant and child mortality; the rate of teen deaths by accident, homicide, and suicide; the teen birthrate; juvenile violent crime and arrest rates; school drop-out rates; teens not in school and not working; children in poverty; and children in one-parent families.
Correspondence: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 701 St. Paul Street, Baltimore, MD 21202. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40081 Belgium. Institut National de Statistique (Brussels, Belgium). The foreign population as of January 1, 1997. [Population étrangère au 1.1.1997.] Statistiques Démographiques, No. 1B, 1997. 289 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
Estimates are presented of the foreign population of Belgium by nationality, sex, marital status, and age for 1997. The estimates are given for the country as a whole and for its regions and provinces.
For a previous estimate for 1996, see 62:30056.
Correspondence: Institut National de Statistique, 44 rue de Louvain, Centre Albert, 8e étage, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40082 Belgium. Institut National de Statistique (Brussels, Belgium). Total population and population of Belgian nationality as of January 1, 1997. [Population totale et belge au 1.1.1997.] Statistiques Démographiques, No. 1A, 1997. 239 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
Estimates of the total population and the population of Belgian nationality are presented for 1997. The estimates are presented by sex, age, and marital status for the country as a whole and for its regions and provinces.
For a previous estimate for 1996, see 62:40075.
Correspondence: Institut National de Statistique, 44 rue de Louvain, Centre Albert, 8e étage, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40083 Bodrova, Valentina. Reproductive behaviour of Russia's population in the transition period. Berichte des Bundesinstituts für Ostwissenschaftliche und Internationale Studien, No. 15, 1995. 24 pp. Bundesinstitut für Ostwissenschaftliche und Internationale Studien: Cologne, Germany. In Eng. with sum. in Ger.
"The demographic situation in Russia has long presented a complicated picture. At the present time, it is characterized by an accelerating decline in fertility in the nineties; a rise in the mortality indices, especially among men of working age and deaths of non-natural causes; stabilization of infant mortality indices at a high level; a rise in childbirth mortality; an increase in the number of divorces, coupled with a drop in the number of marriages; an increase in the number of single parents, who are now rearing about 4 million children under age; [and] an absolute reduction in population numbers in the country since 1992."
Correspondence: Bundesinstitut für Ostwissenschaftliche und Internationale Studien, Lindenbornstraße 22, 50823 Cologne, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40084 Findl, Peter. The demographic situation in Austria in 1995. [Die demographische Situation Österreichs im Jahr 1995.] Demographische Informationen, 1995-1996. 93-106, 163 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"This article presents an overview of the recent demographic situation in Austria on the basis of the final results of vital statistics and estimates of net migration and population figures based on the 1991 census results....The main results of the latest developments are: a decrease in births and fertility as a consequence of a strong decline in births of nationals, which was just partly compensated by a weaker rise in foreign births; a further increase in the proportion of extramarital births (to 27.4%); a further increase in life expectancy at birth as a consequence of reduced mortality at all ages, including a remarkable decline of infant mortality; reduced net immigration to the level of the first half of the eighties (1995: +7,500); a population growth to more than 8 million inhabitants (1995: 8.05)."
Correspondence: P. Findl, Österreichisches Statistisches Zentralamt, Hintere Zollamtsstraße 2b, Postfach 9000, 1033 Vienna, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40085 Kedelski, Mieczyslaw. The demographic situation in Poland from 1948 to 1994: statistical estimates. [Koniunktura demograficzna w Polsce w latach 1948-1994: szacunki statystyczne.] ISBN 83-85530-55-X. 1995. xxxiv, 303; 364 pp. Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Poznaniu: Poznan, Poland. In Pol.
This work presents a selection of demographic data for Poland for the period 1948-1994 and is published in two separate parts. Part 1 has data on the age structure of the population and on life expectancy, and includes data for each individual year on the population of childbearing age by sex and rural or urban area of residence; resident population by sex, age, and place of residence; and life tables by sex for rural and urban areas. Part 2 has data on nuptiality and fertility, including single population and first marriages by age; nuptiality by sex for first and subsequent marriages; marital status by age and sex; marital fertility; and fertility and reproduction. These data are all provided separately for rural and urban areas. English table titles are provided.
Correspondence: Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Poznaniu, ul. Powstanców Wielkopolskich 16, 60-967 Poznan, Poland. Location: University of California Library, Berkeley, CA.

63:40086 Peru. Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. Dirección Técnica de Demografía y Estudios Sociales (Lima, Peru). Peru: population estimates and projections by calendar year and age, 1970-2025. [Peru: estimaciones y proyecciones de la población por años calendario y edades simples 1970-2025.] Boletín Especial, No. 14, Pub. Order No. 670-95-SG-OEPI. Aug 1995. 99 pp. Lima, Peru. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Peru by sex and single year of age for each year up to 2025.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática, Avenida General Garzón, No. 658 Jesús María, Lima 11, Peru. E-mail: postmast@INEI.GOV.PE. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

63:40087 André, Robert. The population of the regions of Wallonia in 2016 and 2026. [La population des régions de Wallonie en 2016 et 2026.] Revue Belge de Géographie, Vol. 119, No. 3-4, 1995. 405-16 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
Population projections are presented for the years 2016 and 2026 for the regions constituting Wallonia, the French-speaking part of Belgium. The projections suggest a decline of about 4.6% in total population size by 2016, and a subsequent stabilization in population size until 2026.
Correspondence: R. André, Université Libre de Bruxelles, 50 Avenue Franklin Roosevelt, 1050 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Cornell University Library, Ithaca, NY.

63:40088 Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos [INDEC] (Buenos Aires, Argentina). Population projections by sex and age group: urban-rural and the economically active (1990-2025) and by province (1990-2010). (Revised version, February 1996.). [Proyecciones de población por sexo y grupos de edad: urbana-rural y económicamente activa (1990-2025) y por provincia (1990-2010). (Versión revisada--febrero 1996).] Serie Análisis Demográfico, No. 7, 1996. 81 pp. Buenos Aires, Argentina. In Spa.
Population projections are presented for Argentina using data from official sources including the 1991 census. The projections for the urban and rural population and the economically active population are by sex and age group and are presented up to the year 2025. The projections for the provinces are only presented up to the year 2010.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos, Centro Estadístico de Servicios, Avenida Julio A. Roca 615 P.B., C.P. 1067 Buenos Aires, Argentina. E-mail: CES@index.mecon.ar. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40089 Baranzini, Erminio; Cotter, Stéphane; Haug, Werner; Wanner, Philippe. Scenarios for future population developments in Switzerland, 1995-2050. [Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Schweiz, 1995-2050.] ISBN 3-303-01080-3. 1996. 139 pp. Bundesamt für Statistik: Bern, Switzerland. In Ger.
A series of alternative population projections is presented for Switzerland up to the year 2050 using data available as of 1995. The alternatives considered are based not only on various hypotheses concerning future demographic indicators, but also on the demographic implications of Switzerland's decision on whether to join the European Community. The publication is accompanied by a CD-ROM with 176 graphs and 64 tables providing data on the three main alternative scenarios and their 11 variations. This publication is also available in French.
Correspondence: Bundesamt für Statistik, Hallwylstrasse 15, 3003 Bern, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40090 Bose, Ashish. The population problems of India in the twenty-first century. [Les problèmes démographiques de l'Inde au XXI siècle.] In: La population du monde: enjeux et problèmes, edited by Jean-Claude Chasteland and Jean-Claude Chesnais. 1997. 163-82 pp. Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France; Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
A number of population-related problems that will face India in the first decades of the twenty-first century are reviewed. These include employment issues; water and energy supplies; the relations among fertility, illiteracy, and high levels of infant mortality; the relation between falling mortality and rising levels of morbidity; social development, particularly as it concerns the relations between the sexes; the potential for large-scale in-migration from Bangladesh; regional demographic imbalances; rapid urbanization and the weakening of urban infrastructures; information and communication issues; and the extreme differences in the size and manageability of the various states of India.
Correspondence: A. Bose, Institute of Economic Growth, 1:1777 Chittaranjan Park, New Delhi 110 019, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40091 de Jong, A. H. National Household Forecasts 1996: strong growth of one-person households. [Nationale Huishoudensprognose 1996: sterke groei eenpersoonshuishoudens.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 45, No. 7, Jul 1997. 6-14 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"According to the National Household Forecasts 1996 for the Netherlands the number of households will increase from 6.5 to 7.9 million in the period 1995-2020. This increase can almost completely be explained by the growth in the number of one-person households....The increase in the number of non-married couples will...be stronger than was expected in the previous household forecasts. However, the number of married couples will fall in the near future, whereas a rise was predicted in the previous forecasts."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40092 Fassmann, Heinz; Kytir, Josef; Münz, Rainer. Regional population projections for Austria, 1991 to 2021. [Regionalisierte Bevölkerungsprognosen für Österreich 1991 bis 2021.] Raumforschung und Raumordnung, Vol. 55, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1997. 115-25 pp. Cologne, Germany. In Ger.
After summarizing Austrian population trends from 1961 to 1995, the authors describe three main scenarios for Austria's future population developments to the year 2021 based on various assumptions about internal and international migration, mortality, and fertility. Their results show that total population size will increase slightly, and that demographic aging will take place. Regional differences will be apparent, however, with the western areas showing demographic growth while the population of the southern regions decreases. Future demographic trends in the labor force are also summarized; unemployment is expected to remain relatively high.
This article was based on a more detailed report produced for an Austrian conference on spatial management; projection results are available in machine-readable form from the Österreichische Raumordnungskonferenz, Hohenstaufengasse 3, 1010 Vienna, Austria.
Correspondence: H. Fassmann, Technische Universität München, Geographisches Institut, Arcisstraße 1, 80290 Munich, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40093 Fassmann, Heinz; Kytir, Josef; Münz, Rainer. Regional population projections for Austria: on the spatial trends in the resident and economically active population to the year 2021. [Regionalisierte Bevölkerungsprognosen für Österreich: zur räumlichen Entwicklung von Wohn- und Erwerbsbevölkerung bis 2021.] Demographische Informationen, 1995-1996. 120-35, 163-4 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"Projections show that Austria's population will increase slightly in the next decades. The seemingly constant development, however, conceals far-reaching age structure shifts on the one hand, and great regional differences concerning the future population development on the other. While urban agglomerations will grow, the population of the peripheral regions of the eastern parts of Austria and even more so of its southern parts is expected to decrease markedly....In the western parts of Austria and in suburban communities the number of the elderly will grow in greater measure than in its eastern parts and peripheral regions [but] the share of the young is decreasing much less in Austria's western regions and the suburban communities."
Correspondence: H. Fassmann, Technische Universität München, Arcisstraße 1, 80290 Munich, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40094 Fullerton, Howard N. Evaluating the 1995 labor force projections. Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 120, No. 9, Sep 1997. 5-9 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The most recent official labor force projections for the United States are reviewed. The author concludes that "more accurate projections of population, shorter projection periods, and reduced labor force growth made BLS [Bureau of Labor Statistics] labor force projections to 1995 marginally better than those to 1990."
Correspondence: H. N. Fullerton, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, D.C. 20212. Location: Princeton University Library (Docs).

63:40095 Gornig, Martin; Görzig, Bernd; Schmidt-Faber, Claudius; Schulz, Erika. German population and economic trends up to the year 2010: results of quantitative scenarios. [Entwicklung von Bevölkerung und Wirtschaft in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2010: Ergebnisse quantitativer Szenarien.] Beiträge zur Strukturforschung, No. 166, ISBN 3-428-09126-4. 1997. 170 pp. Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung: Berlin, Germany; Duncker und Humblot: Berlin, Germany. In Ger.
Projections for the German economy and labor force are presented based on two alternative scenarios: the first assumes a smooth integration of Eastern Europe into the world economy, while the second assumes that Eastern Europe will exert a negative influence on global trade as it struggles to adapt to new realities. The projections run up to the year 2010 and include information on population dynamics and structure, the labor force, production and productivity, occupations, and income distribution.
Correspondence: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Königin-Luise-Straße 5, 14195 Berlin, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

63:40096 Heilig, Gerhard K. World population prospects: analyzing the 1996 UN population projections. IIASA Working Paper, No. 96-146, Dec 1996. [40] pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
The objective of this paper is to analyze the 1996 edition of the UN population assessments and projections. The author discusses the global distribution of projected population growth and growth rates, with particular emphasis on the demographic shift from developed to developing countries. He also examines the methodology and accuracy of projections, and related issues such as demographic aging, food limits, population density, and AIDS.
This paper is also available as an online document at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/Papers/gkh1/.
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schloßplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Author's E-mail: heilig@iiasa.ac.at. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40097 Lutz, Wolfgang; Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei. Doubling of world population unlikely. Nature, Vol. 387, No. 6635, Jun 19, 1997. 803-4 pp. London, England. In Eng.
Future global demographic trends are examined, focusing on the issue of uncertainty in population projections. Specifically, the authors "report on a new probabilistic approach [to population projections] that makes use of expert opinion on trends in fertility, mortality and migration, and on the 90 per cent uncertainty range of those trends in different parts of the world. We have used simulation techniques to derive probability distributions of population sizes and age structures for 13 regions of the world up to the year 2100. Among other things, we find that there is a probability of two-thirds that the world's population will not double in the twenty-first century." The authors conclude that the focus of attention is likely to switch from the issue of population growth to that of demographic aging.
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schloßplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SG).

63:40098 Lutz, Wolfgang. Scenario analysis in population projection. IIASA Working Paper, No. 95-57, Jun 1995. v, 14 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"This paper focuses on the approach to population projections that has been labeled scenario analysis....[It] describes the practical considerations and actual experiences in an IIASA effort to define alternative scenarios for 12 world regions to the year 2030 through discussions of a group of experts....Finally, the paper discusses what kind of alternative variants (or scenarios) the users can handle and do expect."
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. E-mail: info@iiasa.ac.at. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40099 Makhlouf, Hesham; Zaghloul, Saad; Ahmed, Ferial A. Population projections for socioeconomic development in Egypt. CDC Series on Population and Development, No. 8, LC 94-961112. 1994. 36, [7] pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng. with sum. in Ara.
Population projections are given for Egypt by age and sex using data from the 1986 census. "The study consists of four sections including this introduction. Section two gives the country's background in population projections by age and sex. In section 3 the methodology, followed in using the component method, is briefly described, taking in consideration the details of mortality and fertility assumptions. Age-sex composition of base year is given in detail in other sources. Section four gives the tables of projections by both five year and different age groups."
Correspondence: Cairo Demographic Centre, 2 Lebanon Street, P.O. Box 73, Mohandiseen 12655, Cairo, Egypt. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

63:40100 Norway. Statistisk Sentralbyrå (Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway). Population projections, 1996-2050: national and regional figures. [Framskriving av folkemengden 1996-2050: nasjonale og regionale tall.] Norges Offisielle Statistikk, No. C 414, ISBN 82-537-4447-1. Oct 1997. 154 pp. Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor. with sum. in Eng.
These are the official population projections for Norway up to the year 2050. The projections are presented by age, sex, and region. "The new projections cover the period up to 2050 for the country as a whole and for counties, whereas results at the municipal level have only been computed up to 2020. This publication presents county data up to 2030 only...."
Correspondence: Statistisk Sentralbyrå, Salg- og Abonnementservice, Postboks 8131 Dep., 0033 Oslo, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40101 Penev, Goran. Population projections, 1991-2021. Yugoslav Survey, Vol. 38, No. 1, 1997. 3-34 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Eng.
"This information presents initial assumptions and analyzes basic results of the latest population projections for Yugoslavia, and its constituent republics and provinces, by age and sex, for the period 1991-2021, which were prepared during 1995 through co-operation of the Federal Statistical Office and the Demographic Research Centre of the Institute of Social Sciences, and were published in 1996." The projections concern only the two republics that make up present-day Yugoslavia, that is, Montenegro and Serbia (with its two regions of Vojvodina, and Kosovo and Metohija).
Correspondence: G. Penev, Institute of Social Sciences, Center for Demographic Research, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

63:40102 Réunion. Conseil Economique et Social (Sainte-Clotilde, Réunion). The demographic challenge. Réunion in the year 2020: an unavoidable situation. [L'enjeu démographique. La Réunion en 2020: une donnée incontournable.] LC 94-982137. 1994. 68 pp. Sainte-Clotilde, Réunion. In Fre.
Population projections are presented for Réunion up to the year 2020. The report includes chapters on the projections themselves and their effect on the labor market, education, and housing.
Correspondence: Conseil Economique et Social, Hôtel de la Région, avenue René Cassin-Moufia, B.P. 319, 97494 Sainte-Clotilde Cedex, Réunion. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

63:40103 Sri Lanka. Department of Census and Statistics (Colombo, Sri Lanka). Population and labour force projections for Sri Lanka 1991-2031. ISBN 955-577-102-2. Mar 1994. [xvi], 56 pp. Colombo, Sri Lanka. In Eng.
Population and labor force projections by age and sex are presented for Sri Lanka up to the year 2031. "The results indicate that the country's population size will continue to increase rising to about 23 million by the year 2031, even though the rate of growth would continue to decrease. The increase in size will be the larger, the older the age group. This differential growth by age results in rapid aging of the country's population whereby the relative share of the aged increases phenomenally. This process of aging has a multifaceted impact on the future socio-economic life of the people that merits careful attention. The labour force of the country too would grow older and its size will increase through annual additions of approximately 200,000 in the next several years."
Correspondence: Department of Census and Statistics, P.O. Box 563, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Location: University of Minnesota Library, Minneapolis, MN.

63:40104 Thibault, Normand; Gauthier, Hervé; Létourneau, Esther. Population projections: Quebec and its regions 1991-2041 and regional municipalities 1991-2016. [Perspectives démographiques: Québec et régions 1991-2041 et MRC 1991-2016.] Statistiques Démographiques, ISBN 2-551-17044-3. LC 96-191545. Apr 1996. 439, [4] pp. Bureau de la Statistique du Québec: Quebec, Canada. Distributed by Les Publications du Québec, 1 500-D, boulevard Charest Ouest, Quebec, Quebec G1N 2E5, Canada. In Fre.
This report presents results of the official population projections that are made every five years for the Canadian province of Quebec, its administrative regions, and its municipalities. Projections are given by age and sex and for number of households. The first part presents the methods and assumptions used to prepare the projections for the province as a whole and its regions, as well as the actual projections up to 2041. The second part presents the projections for the municipalities (MRCs) up to 2016.
Correspondence: Bureau de la Statistique du Québec, 200 chemin Sainte-Foy, Quebec, Quebec G1R 5T4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40105 Tuljapurkar, Shripad. Taking the measure of uncertainty. Nature, Vol. 387, No. 6635, Jun 19, 1997. 760-1 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author discusses "a new wave of demographic work focused on the forecasting of uncertainty, per se. Such work aims to forecast a range of demographic outcomes along with associated probabilities, rather than one prediction that will almost surely be wrong....The idea is new to demography, for there are technical challenges, and the forecaster has to educate the people who actually use the forecasts."
Correspondence: S. Tuljapurkar, Mountain View Research, 2251 Grant Road, Suite A, Los Altos, CA 94024. E-mail: tulja@mvr.org. Location: Princeton University Library (SG).

63:40106 Venezuela. Oficina Central de Estadística e Informática [OCEI] (Caracas, Venezuela). Population projections. [Proyecciones de población.] [1997?]. Caracas, Venezuela. In Spa.
These population estimates and projections for Venezuela for the period 1950-2035 are presented on two 3 1/2-inch floppy discs. The 31 tables contain data on the population of the whole country, regions, and districts; the rural and urban population; mortality and fertility rates; and age and sex distribution. They can be run on IBM-compatible PCs with at least a 386 chip and 4 MB of RAM, running DOS 5 or above, and having 8 MB free drive space.
Correspondence: Oficina Central de Estadística e Informática, Presidencia de la República, Apartado de Correos 400 Carmelitas, Caracas 1010, Venezuela. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:40107 Young, Christabel. An update on Australia's future population growth and its population problems. People and Place, Vol. 5, No. 2, 1997. 19-25 pp. Victoria, Australia. In Eng.
"Population projections need to be continually updated as new information becomes available....With an assumption of a total fertility rate of 1.865 children per woman and annual net migration of 50,000, ABS [Australian Bureau of Statistics] projections published in 1996 and additional projections in 1997 suggest a population of 24.5 million in 2051 and an ultimate population of more than 25 million. The analysis in this article...puts Australia's various population problems into a proper perspective and tries to direct attention away from the unnecessary preoccupation with population decline."
Correspondence: C. Young, Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Department of Demography, G.P.O. Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

63:40108 Ward, Gary; Barker, Ross. Population change between 1986 and 1996 in Australia: population numbers, components of change and age profiles. People and Place, Vol. 5, No. 3, 1997. 34-44 pp. Clayton, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper represents a preliminary analysis of the release of 1996 Census-based ERP [estimates of resident population] by examining regional population shifts and components of population change in Australia between 1986 and 1996....With particular reference to Queensland, this paper also examines changes in the age profiles of regional populations over the decade to June 1996. Changes in the population structure of Queensland's growth regions are compared with those of regions experiencing population decline."
Correspondence: G. Ward, Queensland Department of Local Government and Planning, Information and Forecasting Unit, Planning Services, Brisbane, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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