Volume 63 - Number 3 - Fall 1997

K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations and Natural Resources

Studies concerned with the relations between population factors as a whole and economic aspects. Relations affecting a single demographic variable and economic factors are coded under the variable concerned and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1. Economic Development and Population

Studies concerned equally with economic and social development. Most studies on the microeconomics of the family will be found in G.2. Family and Household and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

Studies on economic and social development with a worldwide emphasis, together with those with no geographical emphasis.

63:30603 Bencivenga, Valerie R.; Smith, Bruce D. Unemployment, migration, and growth. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 105, No. 3, Jun 1997. 582-608 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
"Economic development is typically accompanied by migration from rural to urban employment. This migration is often associated with significant urban underemployment. Both factors are important in the development process. We consider a neoclassical growth model with rural-urban migration and urban underemployment, which arises from an adverse selection problem in labor markets. We demonstrate that rural-urban migration and underemployment can be a source of development traps and can give rise to a large set of periodic equilibria displaying undamped oscillation. Many such equilibria display long periods of uninterrupted growth, punctuated by brief but severe recessions."
Correspondence: V. R. Bencivenga, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712-1088. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

63:30604 Di Giulio, Enzo; Pizzoli, Paolo. Some reflections on sustainability and its relationship with population. Economia delle Fonti di Energia e dell'Ambiente/Energy and Environment Economics and Policy, Vol. 38, No. 2, 1995. 133-60 pp. Milan, Italy. In Eng.
Some of the problems and issues involved in achieving sustainable levels of economic development are examined. "A concept of sustainability in terms of welfare is proposed. It hinges on the distinction between two separate aspects of the notion of sustainable development: an ethical one and a technical one. A minimum guaranteed welfare level for each individual is set as the target of sustainable development. The key role of intra-generational and inter-generational equity is investigated. Taking equity as central, having set the same minimum welfare target for each individual, population turns out to be one of the major factors working against sustainability. Re-equilibrating an unbalanced path might involve significant changes in living styles in western countries, changes which will likely need to be driven, even against the individual will, by a super partes supra national agency."
Correspondence: E. Di Giulio, Scuola Superiore Enrico Mattei Eni, 7 Piazza S. Barbara, 20097 San Donato Milanese, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30605 Goldemberg, José. Energy for a sustainable world population. In: Population and global security: environmental challenges II, edited by Nicholas Polunin and Mohammad Nazim. 1994. 205-19 pp. Foundation for Environmental Conservation: Geneva, Switzerland; Energy and Environment Society of Pakistan: Lahore, Pakistan. In Eng.
"We will discuss here some of the physical determinants of sustainability and the economic problems involved. In doing so, the fact will be highlighted that the new problems resulting from global environmental degradation might actually help toward finding solutions to the political problems, as this is turning out to be in the self-interest of the industrialized countries as well as in the interests of the elites in developing countries as affecting all, rich and poor alike...." The author discusses physical, population, economic, and political constraints to sustainability.
Correspondence: J. Goldemberg, Universidade de São Paulo, Cidade Universitaria, C.P. 8191, 05508 São Paulo, SP, Brazil. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30606 Jensen, Svend E. H.; Nielsen, Søren B. Aging, intergenerational distribution and public pension systems. Public Finance/Finances Publiques, Vol. 48, Suppl., 1993. 29-42 pp. The Hague, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper develops an intertemporal simulation model capable of addressing the macroeconomic and distributional effects of demographic shocks in a small open economy. Two sources of population aging are examined, viz. lower birth rates and prolonged expected lifetimes at retirement age. Due to strong expectational effects, both shocks are found to change average consumption in a downward direction, in the short run as well as in the long run. This effect is matched by a strong net acquisition of foreign assets. Furthermore, it turns out that the intergenerational distribution of the burden of adjusting to an aging population is strongly dependent on whether the benefit rate, the contribution rate, or the relative non-capital income of pensioners and workers is held fixed."
Correspondence: S. E. H. Jensen, Copenhagen Business School, Economic Policy Research Unit, Struensesgade 7-9, 2200 Copenhagen, Denmark. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

63:30607 Lee, Ronald D. Population dynamics: equilibrium, disequilibrium, and consequences of fluctuations. In: Handbook of population and family economics, edited by Mark R. Rosenzweig and Oded Stark. 1997. 1,063-115 pp. Elsevier Science Publishers: Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This essay first discusses the possibility of long-run economic-demographic equilibrium, as viewed by Classical economists and historians, on the one hand, and by contemporary economists on the other. It examines empirical evidence bearing on the key relationships hypothesized to establish equilibrium--the preventive check, the positive check, and a depressing effect of population growth on real wages reflecting diminishing returns to labor. It then considers the nature of shocks to the equilibrium system, both short-run (such as weather, harvest, and epidemics) and longer run (such as changed disease environment, technological change, and trade), including historical examples from Europe. Next, it considers the possibility of Malthusian oscillations: in strongly equilibrating populations, might the lag between birth and labor force entry lead to long swings, limit cycles, or to chaotic population dynamics? Finally, it considers the economic consequences of demographic fluctuations for savings, consumer demand, labor supply and related variables."
Correspondence: R. D. Lee, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30608 Sarel, Michael. Demographic dynamics and the empirics of economic growth. IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 2, Jun 1995. 398-410 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper examines the effects of demographic dynamics on the measured rates of economic growth. It develops a model of production with labor productivity that varies with age. Macroeconomic and demographic data are used to estimate the relative productivity of different age groups. A panel database of effective labor supply is constructed in order to reflect the changing age structure of the population. The historical measured growth rates are then deconstructed into effects of demographic dynamics and into `real' growth rates, net of demographic effects."
Correspondence: M. Sarel, International Monetary Fund, Research Department, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20431. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

63:30609 Simon, Julian L. The economics of population: key modern writings. International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Vol. 78, ISBN 1-85278-765-1. LC 96-47991. 1997. xxxvi, 529; [566] pp. Edward Elgar Publishing: Lyme, New Hampshire/Cheltenham, England. In Eng.
This two-volume set presents a selection of essays by various authors, all of which have been previously published elsewhere, on aspects of the economics of population. The 55 essays selected are organized under the following headings: empirical work and analysis on general consequences of population, food and land, natural resources, other consequences of density, modern formal theory, and the determinants of population growth and density.
Correspondence: Edward Elgar Publishing, 8 Lansdown Place, Cheltenham, Gloucestershire GL50 2HU, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30610 Tisdell, Clement A. Population, economics, development, and environmental security. In: Population and global security: environmental challenges II, edited by Nicholas Polunin and Mohammad Nazim. 1994. 63-84 pp. Foundation for Environmental Conservation: Geneva, Switzerland; Energy and Environment Society of Pakistan: Lahore, Pakistan. In Eng.
"The importance which economists have placed on human population-levels and their increase as impediments or facilitators of economic development has varied over the centuries and continues to vary also between individuals and factions. In addition, a variety of views [has] been expressed about how or what socio-economic factors may influence family size and population growth, as well as about the likely environmental consequences of population growth. This chapter provides an overview of population as an element in economic development models, of socio-economic influences on family size, of the dilemma raised by the `population-environment-poverty trap' and responses to it--such as migration--and underlines the importance of wise natural-resource management."
Correspondence: C. A. Tisdell, University of Queensland, Department of Economics, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30611 Yip, Chong K.; Zhang, Junxi. Population growth and economic growth: a reconsideration. Economics Letters, Vol. 52, No. 3, Sep 1996. 319-24 pp. Lausanne, Switzerland. In Eng.
"In an endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility, a neo-Malthusian relation emerges only when all exogenous variables are controlled for. This suggests that conflicting findings in the literature may originate from heterogeneity in observed variables in cross-country panel data sets....We emphasize the fact that the rates of both population growth and income growth are endogenous variables within a general equilibrium framework."
Correspondence: C. K. Yip, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong. E-mail: chongkeeyip@cuhk.edu.hk. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

K.1.2. Developing Countries

General studies on the relations between population factors and economic development in developing countries. Includes studies on dependency as they relate to developing countries.

63:30612 Cashin, Paul; Sahay, Ratna. Internal migration, center-state grants, and economic growth in the states of India. IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 1, Mar 1996. 123-71 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper examines the growth experience of 20 states of India during 1961-91, using cross-sectional estimation and the analytical framework of the Solow-Swan neoclassical growth model. We find evidence of absolute convergence--initially poor states grew faster than their initially rich counterparts. Also, the dispersion of real per capita state incomes widened over the period 1961-91. However, relatively more grants were transferred from the central government to the poor states than to their rich counterparts. Significant barriers to population flows also exist, as net migration from poor to rich states responded only weakly to cross-state income differentials."
Correspondence: P. Cashin, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3052, Australia. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

63:30613 Cuffaro, Nadia. Population growth and agriculture in poor countries: a review of theoretical issues and empirical evidence. World Development, Vol. 25, No. 7, Jul 1997. 1,151-63 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The paper contributes a critical survey of the very extensive literature dealing with various aspects of the economic and institutional responses of agriculture to population growth in poor countries, encompassing a discussion of the main underlying theoretical issues. Such responses are evaluated in the framework of the general population-development debate. The main conclusion is that, although population growth induces adjustments in agriculture, in terms of technical progress, intensification, and definition of property rights, optimism may not be justified in the context of very fast population growth and/or already high densities, especially when the environmental resource base is taken into account."
Correspondence: N. Cuffaro, Università degli Studi di Cassino, Via G. Maconi, 03043 Cassino (Frosinone), Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

63:30614 Gendarme, René. The city in development. [La cité dans le développement.] Mondes en Développement, Vol. 22, No. 85, 1994. 114 pp. Institut des Sciences Mathémathiques et Economiques Appliquées [ISMEA]: Paris, France; CECOEDUC: Brussels, Belgium. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
This special issue contains nine articles on the role of urbanization in socioeconomic development in developing countries. A common theme is the constructive role that the city plays in driving the development process.
Correspondence: CECOEDUC, Avenue des Naiades 11, 1170 Brussels, Belgium. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

63:30615 Guillaume, Agnès; Ibo, Jonas; Koffi, N'Guessan. Population growth, agricultural development, and the environment in Sassandra (the south-west Ivory Coast). [Croissance démographique, développement agricole et environnement à Sassandra (sud-ouest de la Côte-d'Ivoire).] ISBN 2-7099-1364-X. 1997. 388 pp. Institut Français de Recherche Scientifique pour le Développement en Coopération [ORSTOM]: Paris, France; Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Statistique et d'Economie Appliquée [ENSEA]: Abidjan, Ivory Coast; Groupement Interdisciplinaire en Sciences Sociales de Côte-d'Ivoire [GIDIS-CI]: Abidjan, Ivory Coast. In Fre.
These are the proceedings of a seminar held in Sassandra, Ivory Coast, in June 1995, on the relations among population, development, and the environment in this part of Africa. The editors note that the Sassandra region is one of the last regions classified as a pioneer region for rural development in the country, and thus could be a useful experiment to see if sustainable levels of both population and development can be achieved in the African context. The 16 papers are organized under the following topics: from research to action toward development; settlement and economic development; the environment and economic and agricultural dynamics; and the health of populations. Other topics covered include settlement patterns associated with the plantation economy, the effects of the recent economic crises on the region's infrastructure, and the demographic impact of these economic and agricultural changes.
Correspondence: Institut Français de Recherche Scientifique pour le Développement en Coopération, 213 rue Lafayette, 75480 Paris Cedex 10, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30616 Higgins, Matthew; Williamson, Jeffrey G. Age structure dynamics in Asia and dependence on foreign capital. Population and Development Review, Vol. 23, No. 2, Jun 1997. 261-93, 463, 465 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Rising fertility and declining mortality have had a profound impact on Asian savings, investment, and foreign capital dependency since Coale and Hoover wrote in 1958. This article argues that much of the impressive rise in Asian savings rates since the 1960s can be explained by the equally impressive decline in youth dependency burdens. Wherever the youth dependency burden has fallen dramatically, Asian countries have relinquished their reliance on foreign capital. Aging will not diminish Japan's capacity to export capital in the next century, but little of it will go to the rest of Asia; rather, the countries in the rest of Asia are expected to become net capital exporters. These conclusions emerge from a model that extends the conventional focus on the dependency rate literature on savings to investment and net capital flows."
Correspondence: M. Higgins, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY10045-0001. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30617 Kibirige, Joachim S. Population growth, poverty and health. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 45, No. 2, Jul 1997. 247-59 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, this paper examines the relationship between population growth, poverty and poor health. While most analyses have focused on population growth as an original cause of poverty and underdevelopment, this paper argues that while both population growth and poor health play a significant role in exacerbating the problem of poverty, they are themselves primary consequences of poverty rather than its cause."
Correspondence: J. S. Kibirige, Missouri Western State College, Department of Social Sciences, 4525 Downs Drive, St. Joseph, MO 64507. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

63:30618 Nabila, John S. Population and sustainable development with particular reference to linkages among environment, urbanization and migration in ECA member states. No. E/ECA/POP/TP/95/3(b)/3, Nov 1995. viii, 117 pp. UN Economic Commission for Africa: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In Eng.
This study examines the links in Africa between migration and urbanization on the one hand and environmental damage on the other, with particular attention to what is happening in Ghana, Gambia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. In this light, the prospects of achieving sustainable development in Africa are discussed.
Correspondence: UN Economic Commission for Africa, P.O. Box 3001, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30619 Portes, Alejandro. Neoliberalism and the sociology of development: emerging trends and unanticipated facts. Population and Development Review, Vol. 23, No. 2, Jun 1997. 229-59, 462-5 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"This article reviews sociological theories of development and their predictive successes and failures. It examines changes in the global economy that led to the hegemony of a market-oriented approach to development. Limitations of this approach are examined along three lines: (1) the erratic record of results of the application of neoliberal adjustment models; (2) failures of a market-oriented trickle-down approach to social equity; and (3) responses of local groups via emigration and the rise of transnational entrepreneurial communities. The significant role of population characteristics, class structure, and the character of the state in accounting for these trends is highlighted, with particular attention to countries and communities in Latin America. An alternative set of propositions based on recent sociological theories of the economy is advanced."
Correspondence: A. Portes, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30620 Repetto, Robert. The "Second India" revisited: population growth, poverty, and environment over two decades. In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. 1997. 153-75 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author discusses changes in population growth, poverty, and environment in India over the past two decades, with a focus on assessing the Second India Study, a report commissioned by the Ford Foundation in the 1970s. "The first objective in reassessing the Second India Study was to see to what extent the interplay of demographic, economic, and ecological change could be predicted....Another objective in reexamining India's experience...was to trace out the key interactions of population growth, economic development, and environmental stress over 20 years. The conclusions of the Second India Study, though varied, were basically optimistic that poverty and population growth could be reduced despite India's limited financial and natural resources....These judgments were basically correct."
Correspondence: R. Repetto, World Resources Institute, 1709 New York Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20006. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30621 Sinha, U. P.; Sinha, R. K. Population and development in Bihar. ISBN 81-7018-798-2. LC 94-905076. 1994. xx, 460 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
This is a collection of papers by scholars, researchers and program managers on the relations between population and development in Bihar, India's second largest state. "The volume contains five sections. The first section, on issues related to fertility, mortality, and migration, contains eight papers: three on fertility and marriage, three on mortality and health factors, and two on migration....The section on social [and] economic development and population change deals with the interrelationship of demographic issues with [the] socio-economic scenario of population in the state. The volume also brings out the situation of women and their role in [the] development process....The section on family planning has eight papers dealing with diverse issues related to programme performance, demand and supply issues, characteristics of acceptors, etc. The last section of the volume, dealing with the situation of tribal population and development process, contains five papers."
Correspondence: B. R. Publishing, A-6 Nimri Community Centre, Phase IV, Ashok Vihar, Delhi 110 052, India. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

63:30622 Tawiah, E. O. Demographic patterns and sustainable development in Ghana. Africa Media Review, Vol. 9, No. 1, 1995. 96-114 pp. Nairobi, Kenya. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The paper is divided into three main sections. The first section examines some aspects of demographic patterns in Ghana. It serves as a backdrop to the discussion of the impacts of demographic patterns on sustainable development in the second section. The last section discusses immediate and decisive actions to be taken to achieve a balance between demographic patterns and sustainable development."
Correspondence: E. O. Tawiah, University of Ghana, Regional Institute for Population Studies, P.O. Box 96, Legon, Ghana. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.3. Developed Countries

Studies on the relations between population and economic factors as they affect the developed world. Also includes studies on the economic effects of a stationary or declining population, the effects of aging on the economy, retirement, and problems of economic dependency in developed countries.

63:30623 Bengtsson, Tommy; Kruse, Agneta. Demographic changes and economic growth in pension systems: the case of Sweden. In: Social security, household, and family dynamics in ageing societies, edited by Jean-Pierre Gonnot, Nico Keilman, and Christopher Prinz. 1995. 111-47 pp. Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
The authors "explore the consequences of demographic change on a pension system which is sensitive to economic growth. In a theoretical discussion they first show that pay-as-you-go systems are in general more sensitive to changes in population growth and age structure than are funded systems. Next [they] investigate in an empirical application related to the pension system in Sweden what one will lose by disregarding economic growth in analysing demographic effects on a pay-as-you-go system which is dependent on economic growth. Because of differences in indexation between contributions (which depend on wages that follow real economic growth) and benefits (indexed for inflation only), positive real growth is beneficial for the performance of the Swedish pension system, although it increases the gap between wage earners and pensioners."
Correspondence: T. Bengtsson, University of Lund, Research Group in Population and Economics, P.O. Box 7083, 220 07 Lund, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30624 Bovenberg, A. Lans; Broer, D. Peter; Westerhout, Ed W. M. T. Public pensions and declining fertility in a small open economy: an intertemporal equilibrium approach. Public Finance/Finances Publiques, Vol. 48, Suppl., 1993. 43-59 pp. The Hague, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The aging of the population in several industrial countries has raised concern about the financing of pay-as-you-go public pension schemes. This paper employs a numerical applied general equilibrium model of the Netherlands to explore how a unilateral temporary decline in fertility affects a small open economy. It focuses on intergenerational distributional effects as well as on macroeconomic consequences for employment, saving, investment, and external trade and capital flows. Furthermore, it discusses several policy options involving the public pension schemes to cope with the intergenerational distributional and macroeconomic effects of the decline in fertility."
Correspondence: A. L. Bovenberg, Erasmus University, Research Centre for Economic Policy, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

63:30625 Chauveau, Thierry; Loufir, Rahim. Lengthening of life expectancy, growth, and pensions. [Allongement de l'espérance de vie, croissance et retraites.] Revue de l'OFCE: Observations et Diagnostics Economiques, No. 50, Jul 1994. 29-64 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"In the computable general equilibrium models with overlapping generations, it is usual to hold the life expectancy constant. In this paper, we get rid of this unrealistic hypothesis by introducing a variable life expectancy. Such a change allows us to use directly the demographic projections for studying the economic transition of some institutional and technical scenarios relating to the French public pension system. First of all, we compare two polar scenarios: the first one consists in maintaining the current replacement rate, and the second one consists in maintaining the current pension contribution rate. Macroeconomic aggregates as well as welfare criteria are then examined."
Correspondence: T. Chauveau, Université de Paris I, 191 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005 Paris, France. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

63:30626 Cornia, Giovanni A.; Paniccià, Renato. The transition's population crisis: an econometric investigation of nuptiality, fertility and mortality in severely distressed economies. MOCT-MOST, Vol. 6, No. 1, 1996. 95-129 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In most of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (hereafter referred to in brief as `Eastern Europe'), the economic and political reforms of the last six years have been accompanied by an unprecedented fall in output, a rapid impoverishment of large sections of society, increasing uncertainty about the future and an exceptional population crisis....Neither fashionable explanations nor major demographic and household behaviour models seem to be able to explain the transition population crisis of Eastern Europe....This paper aims at debunking the traditional approach and at testing the hypothesis that the current transition population crisis is the result of growing economic instability, social stress, unfavourable expectations about the future and inadequate policy action. If this hypothesis is verified, the most suitable solution to the current mortality and fertility crisis of Eastern Europe would require not only stronger measures in the field of health and family policy, but also more aggressive initiatives to support employment, minimum wages and social transfers, enhance tax collection and control inflation."
Correspondence: G. A. Cornia, UNU/WIDER, Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30627 Gonnot, Jean-Pierre. Demographic changes and the pension problem: evidence from twelve countries. In: Social security, household, and family dynamics in ageing societies, edited by Jean-Pierre Gonnot, Nico Keilman, and Christopher Prinz. 1995. 47-110 pp. Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This chapter reports on an international comparative study carried out at IIASA which addresses the major demographic aspects of the pension problem in a systematic way....The core of the study consists of a simulation of [12] national state pension systems under a common set of demographic and labour force participation scenarios up to the year 2050....The demographic setting and the results of demographic projections are presented in the first part of this paper with emphasis on ageing and changes in the marital composition of the elderly population. The second part deals with pensions. It includes a comparison of state pension systems as well as labour and retirement patterns, a description of the pension model, and a discussion of the results of pension projections. The third part is devoted to assessing the possible impact of different pension reforms."
Correspondence: J.-P. Gonnot, UN Population and Development Section, Population Division, Room DC2-2044, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30628 Gonnot, Jean-Pierre; Keilman, Nico; Prinz, Christopher. Social security, household, and family dynamics in ageing societies. European Studies of Population, Vol. 1, ISBN 0-7923-3395-0. 1995. x, 235 pp. Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This book reports the results of an international comparative study into the impact of dynamics in living arrangements on future public pension expenditures in industrialized countries. It presents various demographic and pension scenarios for pension costs until the year 2050 for 12 countries: Austria, Canada, Czechoslovakia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, and Sweden. It extends earlier comparative studies into future costs associated with public pensions into several directions."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Kluwer Academic Publishers Group, P.O. Box 322, 3300 AH Dordrecht, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30629 Holtz-Eakin, Douglas. Demographics, political power and economic growth. Public Finance/Finances Publiques, Vol. 48, Suppl., 1993. 349-65 pp. The Hague, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Growth theory may be used to predict the response of saving, capital formation, and output growth to large demographic shifts. Such large shifts would also be expected to alter the demand for government services and the desired levels of taxation in the population. This paper extends the overlapping-generations model of economic growth to predict the evolution of government tax and spending policy through the course of a major demographic shift. Simulations suggest that this approach may yield valuable insights into the evolution of policy in the United States and other industrialized economies."
Correspondence: D. Holtz-Eakin, Syracuse University, Department of Economics, 400 Maxwell Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244-1090. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

63:30630 Horioka, Charles Y. A cointegration analysis of the impact of the age structure of the population on the household saving rate in Japan. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 79, No. 3, Aug 1997. 511-6 pp. Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"This paper analyzes the impact of the age structure of the population on Japan's household saving rate by applying cointegration techniques to time-series data for the 1955-1993 period. It finds that the ratio of minors to the working-age population and that of the aged to the working-age population both have a negative and significant impact on the household saving rate. This finding suggests that the life-cycle model applies even in a country such as Japan, in which this model is less likely to apply due to cultural peculiarities such as the greater prevalence of intergenerational transfers."
Correspondence: C. Y. Horioka, Osaka University, 1-1 Yamadaota, Suita, Osaka 565, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

63:30631 Hu, Sheng Cheng. Demographics and social security. Public Finance/Finances Publiques, Vol. 48, Suppl., 1993. 339-52 pp. The Hague, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper considers the welfare implications of the interactions between demographic changes and social security in an overlapping generations model in which retirement decisions are endogenous. Both a pay-as-you-go system and an actuarially-fair system are examined." The geographical focus is on the United States.
Correspondence: S. C. Hu, Purdue University, Krannert Graduate School of Management, Department of Economics, West Lafayette, IN 47907-1319. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

63:30632 Hurd, Michael D. The economics of individual aging. In: Handbook of population and family economics, edited by Mark R. Rosenzweig and Oded Stark. 1997. 891-966 pp. Elsevier Science Publishers: Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Two of the most important economic decisions individuals and couples must make late in life are when to retire and, following retirement, how much to consume. These choices, along with public programs such as Social Security and Medicare and family transfers, determine in an important way economic status during retirement. The broad outline of this chapter is to review the economic models that explain retirement and consumption and saving, and then to discuss the empirical evidence about the models. The discussion will be the context of data from the United States because U.S. data are much more extensive than data from other countries, and, consequently, more empirical research has been done based on U.S. data. Then evidence about the economic status of the elderly, including levels and trends, is reviewed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of unanswered research questions and directions for future research."
Correspondence: M. D. Hurd, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY 11790. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30633 Keilman, Nico; Gonnot, Jean-Pierre; Prinz, Christopher. Conclusions and evaluation. In: Social security, household, and family dynamics in ageing societies, edited by Jean-Pierre Gonnot, Nico Keilman, and Christopher Prinz. 1995. 209-32 pp. Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In this book we have investigated what the impact of dynamics in living arrangements and age structures might be on future public pensions expenditures in industrialized countries....In this chapter we evaluate the project. Section 7.2 gives substantive and methodological conclusions. Both demographic issues, public pension issues and distributional aspects are dealt with. An assessment of the project is contained in Section 7.3. In particular, we discuss the drawbacks of the approach chosen for the current project. Finally, some open research questions are taken up in Section 7.4. Strategies for dealing with issues unresolved so far are also briefly addressed."
Correspondence: N. Keilman, Statistics Norway, Division for Demography and Living Conditions, P.O. Box 8131 Dep., 0033 Oslo, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30634 Ogawa, Naohiro; Matsukura, Rikiya. Population change, development and women's role and status in Japan. NUPRI Reprint Series, No. 65, Mar 1997. 94 pp. Nihon University, Population Research Institute: Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
"In this report, we will analyse, on the basis of a macroeconomic-demographic-social security model, various population compositional adjustment problems, shedding light upon the changing status of Japanese women and their career development....The projected results for the macroeconomic and demographic variables suggest that the population of Japan ages at an accelerated speed, which, in turn, gives rise to its slowing economic growth and increasing social security costs....The model simulation results show that the supply factors, particularly labour supply, will constitute a major bottle neck to sustaining economic growth."
Originally published by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP] as Asian Population Studies Series, No. 133.
Correspondence: Nihon University, Population Research Institute, 3-2 Misaki-cho, 1-chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30635 Raleigh, Veena S. The demographic timebomb will not explode in Britain for the foreseeable future. British Medical Journal, Vol. 315, No. 7106, Aug 23, 1997. 442-3 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The case is made that pessimistic forecasts about the economic consequences of population aging in Britain are unduly alarmist. The author notes that the proportion of the British population aged over 60 increased from 19% in 1971 to only 20.5% in 1994. The author concludes that "in many respects the elderly population of the future will be advantaged in comparison with preceding cohorts. Fewer will be unmarried, childless, or widowed; more will have occupational pensions and residential property; and there will be a significant increase over the next decade in people aged 45-64, the peak age for providing informal care. For the next decade or so, the pace and nature of these and other sociodemographic changes is likely to have a greater bearing on the needs of elderly people than their numbers."
Correspondence: V. S. Raleigh, University of Surrey, National Institute of Epidemiology, Guildford, Surrey GU2 5YD, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

63:30636 Ritzen, Jozef M. M.; van Imhoff, Evert. Demographic change, international migration, and public education. Public Finance/Finances Publiques, Vol. 48, Suppl., 1993. 122-43 pp. The Hague, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper studies the impact of demographic change and international migration on economic development and the education sector. We employ a simple simulation model for tracing the impact of international migration on the educational and economic system, under alternative assumptions on the education background and adaptation costs of migrants. An application to the case of the Netherlands shows that international migration of whatever (realistic) level will not be able to prevent strong population aging during the period 2010-2035. Given the current below-average educational and productive profile of the immigrant population in the Netherlands, increased migration will only make matters worse."
Correspondence: J. M. M. Ritzen, Ministry of Education and Science, P.O. Box 25000, 2700 LZ Zoetermeer, Netherlands. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

63:30637 Toutain, Stéphanie. Aging and the reform of pension plans in Italy. [Vieillissement et réforme du système des retraites en Italie.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1997. 441-9 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This study discusses the relationship between demographic aging and retirement age by looking at Italy, where demographic aging is particularly acute due to a rapid decline in fertility. It also describes the various pension plan reforms Italy has experienced since 1992.
Correspondence: S. Toutain, Université de Paris X, 200 avenue de la République, 92001 Nanterre Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30638 Weil, David N. The economics of population aging. In: Handbook of population and family economics, edited by Mark R. Rosenzweig and Oded Stark. 1997. 967-1,014 pp. Elsevier Science Publishers: Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
In this chapter, the author examines how changing a population's age structure in macroeconomic models can affect such variables as consumption, wages, government spending, and savings. Basic data on the evolution of the age structure is presented first. Next, the effect of aging on production and consumption in the economy as a whole is examined. The author focuses on how population aging affects the overall burden of dependents, who must be provided for by working-age adults. The next three chapters look at the three main sources of support for the adult dependent population: resources acquired over the course of a working life, government programs that transfer resources to dependents, and transfers within the family. A final section discusses the overall economic magnitude of the effects of population aging, and describes changes in the channels through which transfers flow.
Correspondence: D. N. Weil, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30639 Wise, David A. Advances in the economics of aging. National Bureau of Economic Research Project Report, ISBN 0-226-90302-8. LC 95-53331. 1996. ix, 354 pp. University of Chicago Press: Chicago, Illinois/London, England. In Eng.
"This volume consists of papers presented at a conference held at Carefree, Arizona, in May 1993. It is part of the National Bureau of Economic Research's ongoing Project on the Economics of Aging." The papers in this volume deal with labor market behavior, health care, housing and living arrangements, and saving and wealth. The table of contents is as follows. The effect of labor market rigidities on the labor force behavior of older workers, by Michael D. Hurd. Why are retirement rates so high at age 65? by Robin L. Lumsdaine, James H. Stock and David A. Wise. The military pension, compensation, and retirement of U.S. Air Force pilots, by John Ausink and David A. Wise. Health insurance and early retirement: evidence from the availability of continuation coverage, by Jonathan Gruber and Brigitte C. Madrian. Medicare reimbursement and hospital and cost growth, by Mark B. McClellan. Living arrangements: health and wealth effects, by Axel Börsch-Supan, Daniel L. McFadden, and Reinhold Schnabel. Do 401(k) plans replace other employer-provided pensions? by Leslie E. Papke, Mitchell Petersen, and James M. Poterba. Is housing wealth a sideshow? by Jonathan S. Skinner. Elderly health, housing, and mobility, by Jonathan S. Feinstein. Intergenerational transfers, aging, and uncertainty, by David N. Weil.
Correspondence: University of Chicago Press, 5801 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

Studies on the environment, quality of life, conservation, food production, etc., and their interrelations with population factors.

63:30640 Benneh, George; Morgan, William B.; Uitto, Juha I. Sustaining the future: economic, social, and environmental change in Sub-Saharan Africa. ISBN 92-808-0918-0. 1996. xiii, 365 pp. United Nations University Press: Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
This collective work is a product of a regional conference held in Accra, Ghana, March 22-26, 1993. "This book focuses on sustainable environmental and resource management development in the Sub-Saharan African region in the medium-term future. The first part analyses the driving forces of environmental change in the region, including persistent poverty, population growth, urbanization, industrialization, and energy production and consumption. The second part takes up issues central to sustainability, including agriculture, on which the majority of people still depend for their livelihood."
Correspondence: United Nations University Press, United Nations University, 53-70 Jingumae 5-chome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30641 Brown, Janet W. Population, consumption, and the path to sustainability. Current History, Vol. 95, No. 604, Nov 1996. 366-71 pp. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
"If the world pursues the American model of development, with its high levels of consumption, air and water pollution, and damage to the natural resource base, and extrapolates these effects and population growth to 2025 and 2050, some basic physical and biological systems could be at risk of collapse....There is time--but not a lot--to control pollution and prevent degradation of the natural resource base. Collectively, countries know better ways of assuring development, and a population stabilizing at 10 billion or 11 billion should be able to live humanely on the planet's resources if governments take the difficult steps required to curb excessive consumption and manage resources sustainably--and if the United States takes the lead."
Correspondence: J. W. Brown, World Resources Institute, 1709 New York Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20006. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

63:30642 Cabrera Trimiño, Gilberto J. The multidisciplinary approach to the relationship between population and the environment in the Caribbean. [La multidisciplinareidad en el estudio de la relación población y medio ambiente en el Caribe.] Documento de Trabajo, No. 11, Jan 1995. 62 pp. Universidad de la Habana, Centro de Estudios Demográficos [CEDEM]: Havana, Cuba. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
The purpose of this interdisciplinary study is to offer recommendations on achieving sustainable levels of socioeconomic development in the Caribbean region without damaging the environment, given the demographic situation and multicultural characteristics of the region's population.
Correspondence: Universidad de la Habana, Centro de Estudios Demográficos, Avenida 41 Número 2003, Playa 13, Havana, Cuba. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30643 Cohen, Joel E. How many people can the earth support? In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. 1997. 35-44 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author discusses ways to answer the question: How many people can the earth support? Aspects considered include natural constraints and human choices, levels of material well-being, technology, the impact of political institutions, economic conditions, and value orientation.
Correspondence: J. E. Cohen, Rockefeller University, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10021-6399. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30644 Cruz, Maria C. J. Effects of population pressure and poverty on biodiversity conservation in the Philippines. In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. 1997. 69-94 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper focuses on one aspect of poverty and population: the increasing number of rural migrants in search of alternative incomes and livelihood....[It] also looks at one form of environmental degradation: the conversion of forest lands into unsustainable use....Using time-series and cross-section information on the Philippines, this paper demonstrates how natural resource management policies, land tenure laws, rapid population increases, and economic policies have contributed to poverty-induced environmental stress....A discussion [is included] on the growth of upland population and rural-to-rural migration, indicating the symmetry between destination regions and critical forest habitats."
Correspondence: M. C. J. Cruz, Global Environment Facility, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30645 Duchin, Faye. Life-style and technology: how much difference can they make? In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. 1997. 303-9 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The pursuit of what I will call (with apologies to Europe and Japan) American life-styles and technologies is deeply rooted and conveys many benefits. Nonetheless, undesirable, unintended consequences are clearly observable in the form of characteristic social and environmental problems in rapidly industrializing countries (not to mention the characteristic problems of the rich countries themselves), as well as truly global ones. It is against this backdrop of the growing dominance of American life-styles and technologies that we must situate the question: how many people can the earth support?"
Correspondence: F. Duchin, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, 110 8th Street, Troy, NY 12180-3590. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30646 Engelman, Robert. Population as a scale factor: impacts on environment and development. In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. 1997. 15-33 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author investigates population dynamics worldwide and their impact on developing countries. The focus is on relations between population and the environment. Possible solutions to population-environment problems are discussed.
Correspondence: R. Engelman, Population Action International, Population and Environment Program, 1120 19th Street NW, Suite 550, Washington, D.C. 20036. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30647 Gleick, Peter H. Human population and water: meeting basic needs in the 21st century. In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. 1997. 105-21 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper explores the connections between human population and freshwater problems, and proposes a new way of addressing them. In particular, the concept of sustainable water use is defined and discussed in the context of growing human populations, and a basic water requirement (BWR) for human needs is identified, quantified, and recommended. Evaluating access to this BWR may prove to be a more useful measure of human well-being than traditional water indices."
Correspondence: P. H. Gleick, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, 1204 Preservation Park Way, Oakland, CA 94612. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30648 Goodland, R. Environmental sustainability: eat better and kill less. In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. 1997. 315-48 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"Most environmental sustainability will be achieved to the extent the world achieves the transition to renewable energy and a stable population. Much has been written on these two fundamental transitions; this paper outlines one other fundamental need instead: the topic of human diet. This paper is addressed to all those who are, therefore, concerned with accelerating the transition to sustainability; its purpose is to sharpen one segment of the sustainability debate."
Correspondence: R. Goodland, 4872 Old Dominion, Arlington, VA 22207. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30649 Goodland, Robert J. A.; Daly, Herman E.; Kellenberg, John. Imperatives for environmental sustainability: decrease overconsumption and stabilize population. In: Population and global security: environmental challenges II, edited by Nicholas Polunin and Mohammad Nazim. 1994. 85-99 pp. Foundation for Environmental Conservation: Geneva, Switzerland; Energy and Environment Society of Pakistan: Lahore, Pakistan. In Eng.
"What is the nature of environmental sustainability?...How can environmental sustainability be attained and what are its characteristics? These are among the issues outlined in this chapter, which seeks to develop a framework for addressing the transition towards a new economic paradigm....There are only three means of reducing the impact of human activities upon an already-stressed environment. These are: (1) limiting population growth, particularly in developing nations; (2) limiting affluence, particularly in developed nations; or (3) improving technology, thereby reducing throughput intensity...."
Correspondence: R. J. A. Goodland, McGill University, 845 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, Quebec H3A 2T5, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30650 Holdgate, Martin W. Hopes for the future. In: Population and global security: environmental challenges II, edited by Nicholas Polunin and Mohammad Nazim. 1994. 221-46 pp. Foundation for Environmental Conservation: Geneva, Switzerland; Energy and Environment Society of Pakistan: Lahore, Pakistan. In Eng.
The author discusses signs of hope in solving problems of rapid population growth. Aspects considered include understanding how people interact with the environment; increasing carrying capacity; the imperative for sustainable development; and securing the demographic transition.
Correspondence: M. W. Holdgate, 35 Wingate Way, Trumpington, Cambridge CB2 2HD, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30651 Lu, Yingzhong. Fueling the world's largest population and a fast-growing economy: the Chinese experience. In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. 1997. 215-28 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author analyzes population growth and economic development in China, with a focus on energy consumption and supply, the comprehensive energy conservation program, and the comprehensive rural energy program.
Correspondence: Y. Lu, Tsinghua University, Institute for Techno-economics and Energy System Analysis, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30652 Madulu, Ndalahwa F. Population growth, agrarian peasant economy and environmental degradation in Tanzania. International Sociology, Vol. 10, No. 1, Mar 1995. 35-50 pp. Newbury Park, California. In Eng.
"This paper attempts to discuss the link between population growth, peasant agrarian economy and environmental degradation in Tanzania. It argues that high population growth and economic backwardness are dependent variables which contribute significantly to rapid resource depletion, and hence to environmental degradation. In other words, peasant agrarian economic conditions stimulate the demand for larger families which leads to high population growth in turn. A change in one of these variables will necessarily lead to changes in the other, and both of them have an impact on the environment. The conclusion drawn is that attempts to reduce population growth need to be linked to the war against poverty and environmental degradation. Efforts should be directed to changing traditional ways of life by eliminating poverty and improving the means of production in the rural areas. Such efforts will ease the demand for children and reduce fertility levels in the long run."
Correspondence: N. F. Madulu, University of Dar es Salaam, Institute of Resource Assessment, P.O. Box 35097, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30653 Meyerson, Frederick A. B. Population, development, and global warming: the international institutional challenges ahead. In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. 1997. 285-302 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author discusses the impact of population and development on global warming. "This paper will focus primarily on fossil fuel emissions, with the recognition that deforestation and changes in land use are also significant anthropogenic contributions to global carbon emissions." Aspects considered include the global warming prognosis; greenhouse gas sources; past and future population and development trajectories; current climate change agreements; and possible solutions to global warming.
Correspondence: F. A. B. Meyerson, Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, 205 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30654 Mitchell, Donald O.; Ingco, Merlinda D.; Duncan, Ronald C. The world food outlook. Trade and Development, ISBN 0-521-58010-2. LC 96-22446. 1997. xvii, 216 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
This book examines global food production and consumption over the past 30 years or so, and presents an outlook over the next 20 years. The authors conclude that "the world food situation has improved dramatically for most of the world's consumers. Output of cereals, the world's main food source, has increased 2.7 per cent per annum since 1950, while population has grown by about 1.9 per cent per annum. Cereal yields have increased at 2.25 per cent per annum. Not all people in the world today have adequate diets and there is no doubting the desperate circumstances of some peoples, but diets for most of the world's consumers have improved dramatically and per capita calorie consumption in developing economies has increased by some 27 per cent since the 1960s. It should continue to improve, and food will be cheaper than it is today." They note that Sub-Saharan Africa is the primary exception to these general trends, but that the reasons for this extend beyond the potential ability of the region to feed its growing population.
Correspondence: Cambridge University Press, Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1RP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30655 Myers, Norman. Global population and emergent pressures. In: Population and global security: environmental challenges II, edited by Nicholas Polunin and Mohammad Nazim. 1994. 17-48 pp. Foundation for Environmental Conservation: Geneva, Switzerland; Energy and Environment Society of Pakistan: Lahore, Pakistan. In Eng.
"This chapter reviews some...analyses, findings, and conclusions, as concerns the multiple emergent pressures stemming from population--whether from the present population total or from its egregious growth-rate. The chapter accepts that the relationships between population and environment are multifaceted and complex--nowhere near as straightforward as has sometimes been represented. Many other variables are at work, such as negligent technologies, defective markets, inefficient economies, and faulty policies overall. But the chapter firmly postulates that population is a prominent factor--often a predominant factor--in many emergent problems of environmental decline and unsustainable development."
Correspondence: N. Myers, Consultant in Environment and Development, Upper Meadow, Old Road, Headington, Oxford OX3 8SZ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30656 Naff, Thomas. The long, dark shadow: population, water, and peace in the Middle East. In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. 1997. 123-51 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author discusses the interrelations between population growth and water supply, with a focus on the Middle East. Aspects considered include the global context of hydrodemographic issues; scales of time and mass; and population stress and conflict. Case studies for the Jordan basin and Syria are presented.
Correspondence: T. Naff, University of Pennsylvania, Department of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, 847 Williams Hall, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6305. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30657 Pachauri, R. K. From Stockholm to Rio and beyond. In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. 1997. 5-13 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"Ever since the first conference on environment and development...was held in Stockholm in 1972, the global community has increasingly focussed on environmental protection and its relationship with economic development in several actions and programs. These concerns came into sharper focus during the Rio Summit in 1992, and now that five years have gone by, the United Nations (UN) is in the midst of extensive preparations to discuss progress with the various initiatives and programs that were launched during the Rio Conference....It would be useful to explore whether economic analysis has progressed in the past quarter century since Stockholm, and now that Rio is five years behind us, to ask `where do we go from here in analyzing the triangle of population, environment, and development?'"
Correspondence: R. K. Pachauri, Tata Energy Research Institute, Darbari Seth Block, Habitat Place, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30658 Pachauri, R. K.; Qureshy, Lubina F. Population, environment, and development. ISBN 81-85419-27-2. 1997. xi, 357 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
This is a collection of papers presented at the Conference on Population, Environment, and Development, held in March 1996 in Washington, D.C. The book also includes "discussion and debate on environmental subjects such as water scarcity, deforestation, biodiversity, and global warming, and social issues examining consumption patterns, energy policy, and migration....The papers in this book focus on the many structural features of economic activities and population changes, which determine the extent and nature of environmental damage and pollution."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Tata Energy Research Institute, Darbari Seth Block, Habitat Place, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30659 Polunin, Nicholas; Nazim, Mohammad. Population and global security: environmental challenges II. LC 95-139289. 1994. xi, 285 pp. Foundation for Environmental Conservation: Geneva, Switzerland; Energy and Environment Society of Pakistan: Lahore, Pakistan. In Eng.
This is a collection of articles by various authors on the relations between continued population growth and the global environment. The primary objective is "to present...the increasingly dire effects of human numbers and profligacy and the dangers of their continuing `business as usual' practices. To such ends we have been fortunate in prevailing upon chosen leaders in the fields involved to contribute twelve chapters that we outlined by themes through which we are attempting to cover the overall subject."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Foundation for Environmental Conservation, 7 Chemin Taverney, 1218 Grand-Saconnex, Geneva, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30660 Preston, David; Macklin, Mark; Warburton, Jeff. Fewer people, less erosion: the twentieth century in southern Bolivia. Geographical Journal, Vol. 163, No. 2, Jul 1997. 198-205 pp. London, England. In Eng.
This study examines the relationship between a population decline and an improving environment in rural Bolivia. "Detailed investigations of household livelihoods in the valleys of Tarija...show how the resources of many different localities are used to provide a satisfactory living without necessarily reducing the stock of resources in the longer term. Historical studies of changes in the numbers of people and livestock show how land-use systems have evolved in recent centuries, and studies of river basins reveal the extent to which the frequency and intensity of floods have changed. The perceptions of rural people as to how the vegetation and hillside erosion may have altered, suggest that some environmental changes in the last half of the present century may be positive. This paper weaves together these threads of information to provide a coherent view of the current environmental situation in a part of southern Bolivia, set in the context of diversified household livelihood strategies."
Correspondence: D. Preston, University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

63:30661 Ramphal, Shridath. Where is the time-bomb ticking? In: Population and global security: environmental challenges II, edited by Nicholas Polunin and Mohammad Nazim. 1994. 49-62 pp. Foundation for Environmental Conservation: Geneva, Switzerland; Energy and Environment Society of Pakistan: Lahore, Pakistan. In Eng.
"While the problem of rapid population-growth is one faced essentially in developing nations, the problem of environmental impact and of pressure on resources has to be confronted in both less-developed and more-developed countries; indeed, in some crucial aspects, more especially in developed countries. The principal cause of human pressure on the environment is human consumption and profligacy, for population acts as a multiplier....In the final analysis, the answer to the population problem lies in effective development: more real and sustainable development in the South, and a better quality of development, a better quality of life, but at lower levels of consumption, in the North."
Correspondence: S. Ramphal, Commission on Global Governance, 11 Avenue Joli-Mont, Case Postale 184, 1211 Geneva 28, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30662 Reidhead, Paris W.; Qureshy, Lubina F.; Narain, Vishal. Population, environment, and development: interactions and issues. In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. 1997. 45-68 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The authors discuss ways of achieving sustainable development given the constraints imposed by population and the environment. Aspects considered include poverty and environment, urbanization and migration, food security, consumption and the North-South debate, and policy suggestions.
Correspondence: P. W. Reidhead, Tata Energy Research Institute, Darbari Seth Block, Habitat Place, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30663 Robinson, James A.; Srinivasan, T. N. Long-term consequences of population growth: technological change, natural resources, and the environment. In: Handbook of population and family economics, edited by Mark R. Rosenzweig and Oded Stark. 1997. 1,175-298 pp. Elsevier Science Publishers: Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This chapter surveys the long-term implications of population growth and its interaction with technological change, resources utilization and the environment. We ask: what are the key determinants of the processes of population growth and technical change and how do they interact with each other? Under what conditions can the people of the world enjoy rising living standards, and if they do, does population have to stabilize for this to be feasible? How do the answers to these questions depend on the relationship between human progress and the natural environment? Will growth be limited by lack of resources or negative environmental repercussions? Will the development of the world economy necessarily mean the despoiling of the environment?"
Correspondence: J. A. Robinson, University of Southern California, University Park, Los Angeles, CA 90089. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30664 Rozelle, Scott; Huang, Jikun; Zhang, Linxiu. Poverty, population and environmental degradation in China. Food Policy, Vol. 22, No. 3, Jun 1997. 229-51 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper studies the relationship among population, poverty, and the environmental factors, and the impact they have had on China's land, water, forests and pastures....Five of China's rural resource concerns are surveyed in this paper: water pollution, deforestation, destruction of the grasslands, soil erosion, and salinization. The paper finds that government policy has not been effective in controlling rural resource degradation primarily because it has limited fiscal resources and poorly trained personnel, and under these constraints the government has delegated responsibility for environmental and resource protection to the ministries of agriculture and forestry, two institutions that have an incentive to favor pro-production policies. Instead, China's efforts to alleviate policy, integrate markets, and control population appear to have helped mitigate a number of adverse environmental consequences of China's development effort of the last 40 years."
Correspondence: S. Rozelle, Stanford University, Department of Economics, Stanford, CA 94305. Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

63:30665 Sadik, Nafis. Population growth and global stability. In: Population and global security: environmental challenges II, edited by Nicholas Polunin and Mohammad Nazim. 1994. 1-15 pp. Foundation for Environmental Conservation: Geneva, Switzerland; Energy and Environment Society of Pakistan: Lahore, Pakistan. In Eng.
The author discusses "some of the most important consequences of continued high population growth which is not in balance with available resources. While some of these consequences may be unavoidable, the possible effects of others may be ameliorated and even prevented by following a wise and decisive policy and concomitant action."
Correspondence: N. Sadik, United Nations Population Fund, 220 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30666 Schaefer, Morris; Kreisel, Wilfried. Health of people, health of planet. In: Population and global security: environmental challenges II, edited by Nicholas Polunin and Mohammad Nazim. 1994. 101-24 pp. Foundation for Environmental Conservation: Geneva, Switzerland; Energy and Environment Society of Pakistan: Lahore, Pakistan. In Eng.
"Even in primitive communities, human environments are complex, being always made up of many interrelated physical and social elements. Social elements impact heavily on the physical environment, as human activities continuously alter natural conditions. Among these social elements, demographic factors are powerful determinants of the state of the environment and, thereby, the state of human health. Both the environment and human health are now endangered on a global scale, and demographic factors are crucial in this crisis."
Correspondence: M. Schaefer, University of North Carolina, School of Public Health, Health Policy and Administration, Chapel Hill, NC 27599. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30667 Subedi, Bhim P. Population and environment interrelationships: the case of Nepal. In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. 1997. 191-213 pp. Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI]: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author discusses interrelationships among population and environmental factors, with a focus on Nepal. Aspects considered include population growth, regional disparity, internal migration, land use changes, deforestation, and crop production and cropping intensity.
Correspondence: B. P. Subedi, Tribhuvan University, Central Department of Geography, Kirtipur, Katmandu, Nepal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

Studies of employment and labor force statistics that are of demographic relevance. Includes studies of the labor force (employment status, occupation, and industry) and of the relations among employment, labor force participation, and population factors. Studies on the effect of female labor force participation on fertility are coded under F.1. General Fertility and cross-referenced here.

63:30668 Beenstock, Michael; ben Menahem, Yitzhak. The labour market absorption of CIS immigrants to Israel: 1989-1994. International Migration, Vol. 35, No. 2, 1997. 187-224 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"We use three micro data sets to investigate the absorption dynamics of CIS [the countries of the former USSR] immigrants in the Israeli labour market in the 1990s. Our findings suggest that the employment absorption process is steady, if slow. The Labour Force Survey suggests that `academics' experience positive duration dependence during the first four years in Israel. Vocational training did not appear to promote employment absorption. However, Hebrew training has a beneficial effect on employment absorption."
Correspondence: M. Beenstock, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Economics, Mount Scopus Campus, Jerusalem 91905, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30669 Burr, Jeffrey A.; McCall, Patricia L.; Powell-Griner, Eve. Female labor force participation and suicide. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 44, No. 12, Jun 1997. 1,847-59 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"To test the role conflict and role enhancement hypotheses, this paper examines the link between female labor force participation and suicide. Using a special tabulation of age/sex-specific suicide data for metropolitan areas in the United States, we estimate separate multivariate regression models for women and men in 1970 and 1980. Our findings show that in 1970 the level of female labor force participation among married women with small children is not related to the female suicide rate but is related to the male suicide rate in a positive direction. By 1980 the relationship between female labor force participation and the male and female suicide rate is negative, suggesting that the well-being of both men and women is enhanced by role accumulation among women."
Correspondence: J. A. Burr, State University of New York, Department of Sociology, 430 Park Hall, Buffalo, NY 14260. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

63:30670 Fassmann, Heinz. Is the Austrian labour market ethnically segmented? European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 13, No. 1, Mar 1997. 17-32 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
The author analyzes "the structure and dynamics of the occupational positions of foreign workers in Austria. Three questions will be answered: 1. Which positions in the labour market do immigrants occupy? 2. How stable is the pattern of an ethnically segmented labour market? 3. Which intragenerational and intergenerational mobility processes can be observed among immigrants? This article begins with a theoretical introduction, a short overview of immigration to Austria and the structure of its respective foreign population. The answers to the three main questions are presented in the next sections. The paper ends in a summary and an outlook."
Correspondence: H. Fassmann, Technical University of Munich, Geographical Institute, Arcisstraße 21, 80290 Munich, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30671 Fry, Richard. Has the quality of immigrants declined? Evidence from the labor market attachment of immigrants and natives. Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 14, No. 3, Jul 1996. 53-70 pp. Huntington Beach, California. In Eng.
"This is an investigation of the labor market activities of U.S. immigrants who arrived from the 1960s through the 1980s. Relative to natives, upon arrival male immigrants who arrived during the 1980s are more likely to be persistently jobless than are male immigrants who arrived during the 1960s. The increased disengagement of immigrant arrivals from the U.S. labor market appears solely in the form of labor market withdrawal and has not manifested itself in increased institutionalization. Though the `new immigration' apparently does not increase fiscal burdens on the penal system, it nonetheless is expanding the dependent population. The greater labor market idleness of today's immigrants relative to pre-1970 arrivals is consistent with a growing body of economic evidence suggesting a deterioration of U.S. immigrants' labor market capital and success during the post war period."
Correspondence: R. Fry, U.S. Department of Labor, Division of Immigration Policy and Research, 200 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20210. E-mail: rfry@dol.gov. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

63:30672 Gesano, Giuseppe. Work status and demographic behaviour. In: Démographie: analyse et synthèse. Causes et conséquences des évolutions démographiques, Volume 3. Apr 1997. 201-20 pp. Centre Français sur la Population et le Développement [CEPED]: Paris, France; Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche: Rome, Italy; Università degli Studi di Siena, Facoltà di Giurisprudenza: Siena, Italy. In Eng.
The relationship between employment status and demographic behavior is analyzed in this chapter. Separate consideration is given to micro- and macro-economic aspects of the relationship. The author also discusses data sources, analytical tools, age and gender differences, and work and migration.
Correspondence: G. Gesano, Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Instituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione, Via Nomentana 41, Rome 00161, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30673 Harkness, Susan; Machin, Stephen; Waldfogel, Jane. Evaluating the pin money hypothesis: the relationship between women's labour market activity, family income and poverty in Britain. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 10, No. 2, 1997. 137-58 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that the over-representation of women amongst the low paid is of little importance because women's earnings account for only a small proportion of total family income. Data from the [United Kingdom] General Household Survey (GHS), together with attitudinal evidence from three cross-sectional data sources, indicate that women's earnings are in fact an important and growing component of family income. The majority of the growth in the share of women's earnings occurs as a result of changing family labour structures; women's earnings are playing an increasingly important role in keeping their families out of poverty."
Correspondence: S. Machin, University College London, Department of Economics, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, England. E-mail: s.machin@ucl.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30674 Le Goff, Jean-Marie. The mobility of young people after their first stable employment. [Mobilité des jeunes à l'issue de leur premier emploi stable.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 3, May-Jun 1997. 545-70 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"This article explores the relationships between the length of the first stable employment obtained by young people [in France] who completed their schooling in the 1980s and their subsequent mobility pattern. The frequency of the different mobilities is measured in relation to, first, the characteristics of the young people at the end of their schooling and their professional experience prior to obtaining stable employment, second, the characteristics of this employment and of the employer. The analysis of these different constraints, placed in the context of labour market conditions, is used to identify several levels of regulation for the length of time employment is held. The analysis is based on an application of event history analysis to data from a survey on the employment experience of young people completing their education at baccalaureate level in 1983."
Correspondence: J.-M. Le Goff, Université de Genève, Laboratoire de Démographie Economique et Sociale, 3 Place de l'Université, 1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. E-mail: legoff@ibm.unige.ch. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30675 LeClere, Felicia B.; McLaughlin, Diane K. Family migration and changes in women's earnings: a decomposition analysis. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 16, No. 4, Aug 1997. 315-35 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Married women who migrate with their families experience relative earnings losses after migration. In this study, we use data from the 1987 Wave of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to explicitly examine the relative importance of three sources of those losses: labor force participation, hours of labor supplied, and wages....the results and subsequent coefficient decomposition methods show that labor force exit and a reduction of labor supplied contribute the largest share to the earnings penalty attached to migration for married women. The participation effect, although reduced in size, is significant for three years following migration. The wages of employed married women who migrate appear to be unaffected in any year following migration."
Correspondence: F. B. LeClere, U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, 6525 Belcrest Road, Room 850, Hyattsville, MD 20782. E-mail: fx10@nch08a.em.cdc.gov. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30676 Miller, Paul W.; Neo, Leanne M. Immigrant unemployment: the Australian experience. International Migration, Vol. 35, No. 2, 1997. 155-85 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Between 1980 and 1996 both male and female immigrants experienced higher unemployment rates than Australia-born workers....A multivariate analysis is used in this article to examine unemployment rate differentials between Australia-born and immigrants from English-speaking countries and immigrants from non-English-speaking countries. A feature of the analysis is decomposition of unemployment rate differences between birthplace groups into a component attributable to the different characteristics of the birthplace groups (e.g. different mean levels of education) and a part that is viewed as an impact associated simply with being foreign born."
Correspondence: P. W. Miller, University of Western Australia, Department of Economics, Nedlands, WA 6009, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30677 Nakanishi, Toru. Comparative study of informal labor markets in the urbanization process: the Philippines and Thailand. Developing Economies, Vol. 34, No. 4, Dec 1996. 470-96 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
"Culturally, socially, and politically, the Philippines and Thailand are completely different, but in the economic sphere until the end of the 1970s, the two exhibited such similarity that they could have been called twins. During the 1980s, however, the difference in the economic progress of the two countries widened greatly....Relying on field surveys, this study will try to further clarify the differences in the social structures of the two countries through an analysis of the effects that urbanization has had on the urban informal labor market. Essentially it seeks to comprehend the urban labor market by approaching from another angle Hara's argument that the labor market in the Philippines is extremely segmented while that in Thailand is one of free movement between sectors with educational attainment effectively acting as a signal of labor quality."
Correspondence: T. Nakanishi, University of Tokyo, Faculty of Economics, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

63:30678 Pomp, J. M. Three scenarios of labor supply for the next 25 years. [Drie scenario's van het arbeidsaanbod voor de komende 25 jaar.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 45, No. 6, Jun 1997. 19-23 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"The future development of labour supply [in the Netherlands] depends on two factors: (1) demographic changes: population by age, sex, level of educational attainment and ethnicity; (2) changes in labour force participation rates. Three scenarios of labour supply in the period 1995-2020 are based on alternative assumptions on future changes in these factors. The main trend is the increase of labour force participation of women. Ageing has a negative impact on labour supply, as the labour force participation rates of the elder age groups are relatively low. The increase of the level of educational attainment has a moderate positive impact."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30679 Seifert, Wolfgang. Occupational and economic mobility and social integration of Mediterranean migrants in Germany. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 13, No. 1, Mar 1997. 1-16 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Foreigners of Mediterranean immigrant origin still occupy the lower positions in the German labour market. The employment profile is clearly different from that of German wage earners and salaried employees. Results from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study show that 60% of this foreign population was employed as unskilled or semi-skilled workers in 1993. Between 1984 and 1993 their occupational mobility was relatively low. The situation of the second generation has clearly improved. To a small degree they even found access to attractive jobs in the service sector. But compared with Germans of the same age group their occupational success is limited. The social situation of foreigners is characterised by increasing segregation."
Correspondence: W. Seifert, Humboldt-Universität, Lehrstuhl für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30680 Tiwari, Indra P. Impact of migration on rural employment and earnings in the Western Development Region of Nepal. Asian and Pacific Migration Journal, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1996. 417-48 pp. Quezon City, Philippines. In Eng.
"This study was carried out to examine the impact of migration on rural employment and earnings in the Western Development Region of Nepal....Rural-to-rural migration has not contributed to occupational mobility and attainment of a higher level of earnings at the place of destination in comparison to the native population who have stayed behind. Temporary migration, largely to India, has resulted in occupational mobility, reduced rural underemployment, and contributed higher cash income to the participating households. Consequently, households with temporary outmigrant members who contribute to household earnings by salary, remittances, or pension, distinctly increase the earning level of this group [which] is significantly higher than that of households without any migrant members."
Correspondence: I. P. Tiwari, UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, United Nations Building, Rajdamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30681 van Dijk, Liset; Siegers, Jacques. The influence of subsidized child care supply on female labor force participation. [De invloed van het aanbod van gesubsidieerde kinderopvang op het arbeidsaanbod van vrouwen.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 2, 1995. 29-44 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"In this article we study the effect of the supply of subsidized child care facilities on labour force participation of married or cohabiting women [in the Netherlands]....The results show that--controlled for the potential female wages per hour, her `non-labour income', her age and the presence of children in the household--female labour force supply is higher in municipalities, the larger the supply of subsidized child care facilities. That indicates that the extension schemes of subsidized child care facilities introduced in 1990 most probably [resulted] in a rising labour force participation of mothers with young children."
Correspondence: L. van Dijk, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30682 Van Hoof, Krista. General census of population and housing, March 1, 1991. Female employment and segregation. [Recensement général de la population et des logements au 1er mars 1991. Emploi féminin et ségrégation.] Monographie, No. 8, 1997. 163, 9 pp. Institut National de Statistique: Brussels, Belgium; Services Fédéraux des Affaires Scientifiques, Techniques et Culturelles: Brussels, Belgium. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
This study, based on data from the 1991 census of Belgium, concerns the segregation of men and women in the Belgian labor market. "The differences in the position of men and women on the labour market are discussed in a general introduction. Next follows an elucidation of existing research and the development of theories concerning this research. Also, the source material on which this kind of research can be based is described in detail. Next, segregation is further analysed from two points of view: that of the relevant economic sectors, and that of the professions. This is done in two ways. A first method is based on the decile division of the sectors and professions. The second method is based on the calculation and comparison of the segregation indices. Because length of the working week and the sex of the worker are so closely related, some attention is given to segregation and part-time work in different sectors and professions. Finally, an attempt is made to create a typology of both sectors and professions based on the different variables mentioned in this report."
Correspondence: Institut National de Statistique, 44 rue de Louvain, Centre Albert, 8e étage, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


Copyright © 1997, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.