Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.
Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.
63:30088 Breschi, Marco; Pozzi, Lucia;
Rettaroli, Rosella. Differences in the growth of four
regional populations in Italy, 1750-1911. [Diferencias en el
crecimiento de cuatro poblaciones regionales en Italia, 1750-1911.]
Boletín de la Asociación de Demografía
Histórica, Vol. 14, No. 1, 1996. 11-30 pp. Bellaterra, Spain. In
Spa.
The authors discuss the use of inverse projection to examine
population growth in four regions of Italy between 1750 and 1911.
Information is included on population and growth rates; life expectancy
at birth; crude birth rate; and nuptiality, fertility, and
mortality.
Correspondence: M. Breschi, Università
degli studi di Udine, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Via Antonini
8, 33100 Udine, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:30089 Cornell, Laurel L.
Infanticide in early modern Japan? Demography, culture, and
population growth. Journal of Asian Studies, Vol. 55, No. 1, Feb
1996. 22-50 pp. Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The apparent
stagnation [in population growth] during the century and a half from
the early 1700s to 1850 is a sharp contrast with population patterns in
Japan both earlier and later." The author investigates possible
reasons for this apparent stagnation, with a focus on the impact of
infanticide on mortality levels. "Scholars who have examined the
relationship between population growth rates and economic resources in
early modern Japan have rightly focussed on the stagnation of the
eighteenth and early nineteenth century....Those who concentrated on
mortality emphasized famine; those who concentrated on fertility,
infanticide. The objective of this paper has been to create a more
complicated, but more nuanced picture. To do so I have emphasized the
third component of population growth, migration....The multiple
components of demography worked together to create the population
patterns we observe in early modern Japan."
Correspondence:
L. L. Cornell, Indiana University, Department of Sociology,
Ballantine Hall, Bloomington, IN 47405. Location: Princeton
University Library (PR).
Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.
63:30090 Boucher, Marguerite. All
the world's countries (1997). [Tous les pays du monde (1997).]
Population et Sociétés, No. 326, Jul-Aug 1997. 8 pp.
Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France.
In Fre.
This issue presents a selection of basic demographic
indicators for the countries of the world; it is compiled primarily
from data published by the Population Reference Bureau, supplemented
from other sources.
Correspondence: Institut National
d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex
14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:30091 Deshpande, Sudha.
Evidence of underenumeration in 1991 census population of
Mumbai. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 32, No. 26, Jun 28,
1997. 1,539-41 pp. Mumbai, India. In Eng.
"There is evidence
that the 1991 Census data for Greater Bombay (Brihanmumbai) may be an
undercount. This article reviews recently released census data
including migration tables, to attempt an estimate of the extent [of
the] undercount."
Location: Princeton University
Library (PF).
63:30092 Eberhardt, Piotr. The
number and distribution of the Polish population in Ukraine in the
twentieth century. [Liczba i rozmieszczenie ludnosci polskiej na
Ukrainie w XX wieku.] Czasopismo Geograficzne/Geographical Journal,
Vol. 65, No. 2, 1994. 125-63 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in
Eng.
"The paper presents the number and distribution of Polish
population in present Ukrainian territory in the twentieth century. The
introduction includes historical information about background and
history of Polish population in earlier periods....The changes caused
by World War [II] including changes of the borders [are then]
evaluated....The assessment of war losses is followed by post-war
demographic analysis. The next part of the paper is the interpretation
of the data of 1959 and 1989 Russian Censuses. The number of Polish
population in static and dynamic aspects is presented. Besides the
national statistics, the data on mother-tongue were considered. The
scale and intensification of sovietization and russification processes
are demonstrated, as well as their influence on national consciousness
of Poles."
Correspondence: P. Eberhardt, PAN Instytut
Geografii i Przestrzennego Zagospodarowania, Krakowskie Przedmiescie
30, 00-927 Warsaw, Poland. Location: University of Michigan
Library, Ann Arbor, MI.
63:30093 Grünheid, Evelyn; Schulz,
Reiner. 1996 report on the demographic situation in
Germany. [Bericht 1996 über die demographische Lage in
Deutschland.] Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol.
21, No. 4, 1996. 345-439 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in
Eng; Fre.
The authors examine the demographic situation in Germany
as of 1996. Information is provided on population growth and its
determinants, marriage patterns, live births, mortality, immigration,
number of households, employment, and population projections. Trends in
Germany since 1960 are compared with those in other European Union
member countries.
Correspondence: E. Grünheid,
Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung, 65180 Wiesbaden,
Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:30094 Hull, Terence H.
Continuing demographic transitions in Asia. Asian-Pacific
Economic Literature, Vol. 10, No. 1, May 1996. 42-53 pp. Canberra,
Australia. In Eng.
"This article updates the literature survey
on demographic trends and policies published in the May 1987 issue of
this journal. It reports substantial adjustments in earlier population
projections, suggesting slower decline in population growth rates for
China and several other Asian countries. It gives an account of recent
trends and policies in the Asian-Pacific region, especially China,
Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore."
For the
article referred to, see 53:30046.
Correspondence: T. H.
Hull, Australian National University, Research School of Social
Sciences, Department of Demography, G.P.O. 4, Canberra, ACT 2601,
Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
63:30095 Japan. Statistics Bureau (Tokyo,
Japan). Current population estimates as of October 1,
1996. Population Estimates Series, No. 68, Jun 1997. 85 pp. Tokyo,
Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Census-based population estimates
are presented for Japan for 1996. The estimates for all Japan are by
age and sex, and the estimates for prefectures are for five-year age
groups and sex.
Correspondence: Statistics Bureau,
Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku,
Tokyo 162, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:30096 McKibben, Jerome N.; Swanson, David
A. Linking substance and practice: a case study of the
relationship between socio-economic structure and population
estimation. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 23,
No. 2, 1997. 135-47 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Population estimation methods designed for the
state/provincial and county levels generally exhibit high levels of
accuracy. However, there are persistent shortcomings that have not been
resolved through methodological development. We argue that at least
some of these shortcomings would be better understood by linking these
methods with the substantive socio-economic and demographic dynamics
that clearly must be underlying the changes in population that the
methods are designed to measure. To illustrate our main point, we
conduct a case study of Indiana over two periods, 1970-1980 and
1980-1990. Indiana is selected because a common population estimation
method exhibits a common problem over the two periods: its coefficients
change. We link these changes to Indiana's transition to a
post-industrial economy and describe how this transition operated
through demographic dynamics that ultimately affected the estimation
model."
Correspondence: J. N. McKibben, University of
Southern Mississippi, Department of Sociology and Anthropology,
Hattiesburg, MS 39406. Location: Princeton University Library
(SF).
63:30097 Prioux, France. Recent
demographic trends. [L'évolution démographique
récente.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 3, May-Jun 1997. 637-64 pp.
Paris, France. In Fre.
This is one in a regular series of articles
describing recent demographic trends in France. For most of the topics,
the most recent data are for 1996. There are sections on general
trends, fertility, generational fertility, induced abortion, marriage,
nuptiality, marriage and cohabitation, divorce, and
mortality.
Correspondence: F. Prioux, Institut National
d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex
14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:30098 Sommer, Bettina.
Marriages, births and deaths, 1995. [Eheschließungen,
Geburten und Sterbefälle, 1995.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 4,
Apr 1997. 220-5 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
This is a report on
marriages, births, and deaths in Germany in 1995. Comparisons are drawn
between the former East and West Germany. A continuing increase in
marriage age is noted, as is an increase in the age of mothers. Life
expectancy continues to increase as well.
Correspondence:
B. Sommer, Statistisches Bundesamt, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 11,
6200 Wiesbaden 1, Germany. Location: Princeton University
Library (PF).
63:30099 Steenkamp, H. A.
Population estimates for the RSA by magisterial district and
province, 1997. Research Report/Navorsingsverslag, No. 243, ISBN
0-947459-59-6. 1997. ix, 78 pp. University of South Africa, Bureau of
Market Research: Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
Population
estimates are presented for South Africa for 1997 using data from a
number of published sources. "The population estimates are
presented by population group and magisterial district and are further
summarised by statistical region, metropolitan area and
province."
For previous estimates, see 62:40081.
Correspondence: University of South Africa, Bureau of
Market Research, P.O. Box 392, Pretoria 0003, South Africa. E-mail:
martijh@alpha.unisa.ac.za. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.
63:30100 Campbell, Paul.
Population projections: states, 1995-2025. Current Population
Reports, Series P-25, No. 1131, May 1997. 6 pp. U.S. Bureau of the
Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report identifies
population changes that are projected to affect the 50 states and the
District of Columbia during the years 1995 to 2025." Additional
detailed data are available for a fee both on diskette and in paper
format. The information in this report, excluding the detailed data, is
available on the World Wide Web
(http://www.census.gov).
Correspondence: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Customer Services, Washington, D.C. 20233. E-mail:
Paul.R.Campbell@ccmail.census.gov. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
63:30101 Chile. Instituto Nacional de
Estadísticas [INE] (Santiago, Chile); United Nations. Centro
Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE] (Santiago,
Chile). Chile: population estimates and projections by age
and sex. The whole country: 1950-2050. [Chile: estimaciones y
proyecciones de población por sexo y edad. Total pais:
1950-2050.] CELADE Serie OI, No. 97, 1995. 135 pp. Santiago, Chile. In
Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Chile
by age and sex for the period from 1950 to 2050. The projections were
developed using the component method; they are based on census data,
including the 1992 census, and vital statistics sources. The quality of
the data, and the methodology used to prepare the projections, are
discussed in the first two chapters.
Correspondence:
Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas, Avenida Presidente
Bulnes 418, Casilla 498, Correo 3, Santiago, Chile. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:30102 Courbage, Youssef.
Demography in the countries to the south of the Mediterranean in
the twenty-first century: some changes in perspective. [La
démographie en rive sud de la Méditerranée au XXIe
siècle: changement de perspectives.] Espace, Populations,
Sociétés, No. 1, 1997. 11-26 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq,
France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"The concern...[with the]
demographic growth of the Southern shore of the Mediterranean sea has
slightly abated. Yet, the population projections which are currently
produced by the United Nations away from the field, with...often very
outdated data and...a globalizing approach, [do] not always contribute
to ease the debate. This article reviews the current population
projections [using] a more refined methodology and...the most
up-to-date statistics. With the sole exception of Egypt, the
slowing-down is striking for all the heavily populated countries:
Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Syria and Turkey and sometimes for the
smallest: Libya, Lebanon, Israel and Palestine. Although largely
disregarded, the implications of this new demographic regime are
considered in terms of the competition between population and economic
growth, supply and demand of labour force, expansion of a potential
southern common market, and geopolitics."
Correspondence:
Y. Courbage, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27
rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:30103 Japan. National Institute of
Population and Social Security Research (Tokyo, Japan).
Population projections for Japan: 1996-2100. Research Series,
No. 291, Apr 30, 1997. ii, 240 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population
projections are presented for Japan up to the year
2100.
Correspondence: Ministry of Health and Welfare,
National Institute of Population and Social Security, 1-2-2
Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:30104 Manting, D.; Butzelaar, E.
Forecasts of the foreign population 1996-2015.
[Allochtonenprognose 1996-2015.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol.
45, No. 3, Mar 1997. 30-46 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum.
in Eng.
The authors examine forecasts of the foreign population in
the Netherlands up to the year 2015. Information is included on country
of origin; fertility according to birth country of mother;
intermarriages and fertility; and age structure.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:30105 Partida Bush, Virgilio.
Basic instrument of regional planning. [Instrumento
básico de la planeación regional.] Démos, No. 9,
1996. 6-8 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
The author presents
results of recent projections of Mexico's population at the state
level, from 1995 to 2010.
Correspondence: V. Partida Bush,
Consejo Nacional de Población, Avenida Angel Urraza 1137, Col.
Del Valle, C.P. 03100 Mexico City, DF, Mexico. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:30106 Spain. Instituto Nacional de
Estadística [INE] (Madrid, Spain). Population
projections for Spain calculated from the 1991 population census.
National totals, 1990-2020; autonomous communities and provinces,
1990-2005. [Proyecciones de la población de España
calculada del Censo de Población de 1991. Total nacional
1990-2020; comunidades autónomas y provincias 1990-2005.] ISBN
84-260-3096-3. 1995. 131 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
Population
projections are presented for Spain by age and sex using final data
from the 1991 census. Projections for the whole country are made up to
the year 2020, and those for autonomous communities and provinces up to
the year 2005. Chapters are included on trends in mortality, fertility,
and both internal and international migration. The detailed projections
and an explanation of the methodology used are provided on three
diskettes accompanying the publication.
Correspondence:
Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Paseo de la Castellana
183, 28046 Madrid, Spain. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
63:30107 Yuan, Jianhua; Zhuang, Yan; Xu,
Yi. Applying a discrete progressive model of
age-categorized school enrollment in the projection of China's future
population. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 8, No. 4,
1996. 421-35 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This
investigation examines the predictive patterns of several proposed
plans in the analysis and projection of the Chinese population in the
year 2000, the year 2010, and beyond as well as the educational
characteristics of the population at various stages of development. The
analyses and predictions are based on the application of a discrete
progressive model of age-categorized school enrollment patterns which
are most reflective of the interaction between population size and
population educational level. Also introduced into the model are two
sets of control variables: the total fertility rate which indicates
women's general fertility and number of students admitted which is an
indicator of general educational capacity."
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.
63:30108 Forstall, Richard L.
Population of states and counties of the United States: 1790-1990.
From the twenty-one decennial censuses. ISBN 0-934213-48-8. Mar
1996. x, 226 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C.
Distributed by National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department
of Commerce, Springfield, VA 22161. In Eng.
"This publication
provides the populations of States and their counties according to the
twenty-one decennial U.S. censuses conducted from 1790 to 1990. This is
the first time in almost 100 years that data for counties back to 1790
have appeared in a census publication....Part I provides an
introduction and explanation of the information contained in the
report. Part II is a single table giving the populations of States, for
the censuses taken since they were established as Territories or
States. So far as possible the States are shown in their present-day
boundaries. If the State or its predecessor Territory had a different
geographic extent at a census, a note in Part III explains the
difference. Part III consists of tables for each of the 50 States and
the district of Columbia, with populations for counties or equivalent
areas at each census. In these State tables, after the last column of
populations a Notes column provides information on the origin of each
county, other names it has had, etc....Following the population tables,
Part IV gives for each State the date of the first census for each
county, the date of the census since which the county has not had any
significant alterations in boundaries, and the Federal Information
Processing Standard (FIPS) code for the
county."
Correspondence: U.S. Bureau of the Census,
Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:30109 González Quiñones,
Fernando R.; Ramos Piñol, Oscar R. Cuba: trends and
estimated demographic indicators for the period 1900-1959. [Cuba:
balance e indicadores demográficos estimados del período
1900-1959.] ISBN 959-7005-05-0. 1996. 52 pp. Universidad de la Habana,
Centro de Estudios Demográficos [CEDEM]: Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
Methods of inverse projection developed by Ronald D. Lee and the
software Populate are used to recalculate population developments in
Cuba from 1900 to 1959. Annual estimates of population size by sex are
presented, as are estimates by sex of births, deaths, and
migrations.
Correspondence: Universidad de la Habana,
Centro de Estudios Demográficos, Avenida 41 Número 2003,
Playa 13, Havana, Cuba. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:30110 Graham, David. The use
of published population census burgh ward data for local population
studies: Dundee, 1901-1971. Local Population Studies, No. 58,
Spring 1997. 26-36 pp. Colchester, England. In Eng.
"A useful
source for local population studies in Scotland is the ward data in the
Census of Population....This paper [looks] at the information provided
in the main published reports between 1901 and 1971. The analysis
concentrates on those demographic and social variables which are, as
near as is possible, comparable throughout the series and which can
form the basis of local population
studies."
Correspondence: D. Graham, Nottingham Trent
University, Department of International Studies, Burton Street,
Nottingham NG1 4BU, England. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
63:30111 Katus, Kalev; Puur, Allan;
Põldma, Asta; Sakkeus, Luule. Reviewed population
vital and census statistics, Viljandimaa 1965-1990. [Rahvastiku
ühtlusarvutatud sündmus- ja loendusstatistika, Viljandimaa
1965-1990.] Eesti Rahvastikustatistika/Population Statistics of
Estonia, RU Seeria A, No. 8, ISBN 9985-820-20-7. 1996. lxix, 353 pp.
Estonian Interuniversity Population Research Centre: Tallinn, Estonia.
In Est. with sum. in Eng.
This report stems from a project to try
and develop accurate and consistent demographic data for Estonia for
the period prior to independence, when the country formed part of the
Soviet Union. "The volume presents vital and census statistics for
Viljandi county 1965-1990. Vital statistics include indicators which
could be subjected to recalculation resulting in consistent time series
covering the whole period. Regarding census statistics, the 1989 census
microdata is newly processed to produce a set of regional standard
tabulations, covering all municipalities in full amount. The data for
earlier censuses follows the same standard set, providing all the
comparable data and discarding non-comparable tabulations. Due to the
access to microdata, the 1979 census is noticeably better represented
than two earlier censuses for which only aggregate tabulations were
available....The volume is accompanied with the diskette including a
set of computerized graphs to illustrate the main features of the
county population."
Correspondence: Estonian
Interuniversity Population Research Centre, P.O. Box 3012, 0090
Tallinn, Estonia. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:30112 MacDonald, Kenneth I.
Population change in the upper Braldu Valley, Baltistan, 1900-1990:
all is not as it seems. Mountain Research and Development, Vol.
16, No. 4, 1996. 351-66 pp. Berkeley, California. In Eng. with sum. in
Fre; Ger.
"This paper examines population change in the upper
Braldu Valley of the Karakoram range in northern Pakistan between 1900
and 1990. Population has declined over the 90-year period of
observation and the majority of that decline is accounted for by
females....The paper discusses apparent demographic trends in a
contemporary and historical context and questions the extension of
vague, unqualified, context-independent population statistics to an
area where apparently they do not apply. It argues that only by
interpreting demographic change from within such a local context can
the relevance of population control policies be scrutinized. This paper
is not an exhaustive demographic analysis but presents data from a
little-studied region of the Himalayan area and is meant to open
avenues for future research there."
Correspondence: K.
I. MacDonald, University of Toronto, Department of Geography, 1265
Military Trail, Scarborough, Ontario M1C 1A4, Canada. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:30113 Turcic, Ivan. Population
of the Republic of Croatia by counties and districts: 1857-1991.
[Stanovnistvo Republike Hrvatske po zupanijama i kotarima: 1857-1991.]
No. 115, ISBN 953-6030-10-1. 1995. vii, 107 pp. Ekonomski Institut:
Zagreb, Croatia. In Scr.
Population trends at the local level in
Croatia are analyzed for the period 1857-1991. There are tables on
population density by county and district for selected years, the urban
population, and settlements of over 2,000 and 5,000
inhabitants.
Correspondence: Ekonomski Institut, Trg. J. F.
Kennedy 7, 1000 Zagreb, Croatia. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
