Volume 63 - Number 3 - Fall 1997

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

63:30088 Breschi, Marco; Pozzi, Lucia; Rettaroli, Rosella. Differences in the growth of four regional populations in Italy, 1750-1911. [Diferencias en el crecimiento de cuatro poblaciones regionales en Italia, 1750-1911.] Boletín de la Asociación de Demografía Histórica, Vol. 14, No. 1, 1996. 11-30 pp. Bellaterra, Spain. In Spa.
The authors discuss the use of inverse projection to examine population growth in four regions of Italy between 1750 and 1911. Information is included on population and growth rates; life expectancy at birth; crude birth rate; and nuptiality, fertility, and mortality.
Correspondence: M. Breschi, Università degli studi di Udine, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Via Antonini 8, 33100 Udine, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30089 Cornell, Laurel L. Infanticide in early modern Japan? Demography, culture, and population growth. Journal of Asian Studies, Vol. 55, No. 1, Feb 1996. 22-50 pp. Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The apparent stagnation [in population growth] during the century and a half from the early 1700s to 1850 is a sharp contrast with population patterns in Japan both earlier and later." The author investigates possible reasons for this apparent stagnation, with a focus on the impact of infanticide on mortality levels. "Scholars who have examined the relationship between population growth rates and economic resources in early modern Japan have rightly focussed on the stagnation of the eighteenth and early nineteenth century....Those who concentrated on mortality emphasized famine; those who concentrated on fertility, infanticide. The objective of this paper has been to create a more complicated, but more nuanced picture. To do so I have emphasized the third component of population growth, migration....The multiple components of demography worked together to create the population patterns we observe in early modern Japan."
Correspondence: L. L. Cornell, Indiana University, Department of Sociology, Ballantine Hall, Bloomington, IN 47405. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

63:30090 Boucher, Marguerite. All the world's countries (1997). [Tous les pays du monde (1997).] Population et Sociétés, No. 326, Jul-Aug 1997. 8 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This issue presents a selection of basic demographic indicators for the countries of the world; it is compiled primarily from data published by the Population Reference Bureau, supplemented from other sources.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30091 Deshpande, Sudha. Evidence of underenumeration in 1991 census population of Mumbai. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 32, No. 26, Jun 28, 1997. 1,539-41 pp. Mumbai, India. In Eng.
"There is evidence that the 1991 Census data for Greater Bombay (Brihanmumbai) may be an undercount. This article reviews recently released census data including migration tables, to attempt an estimate of the extent [of the] undercount."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

63:30092 Eberhardt, Piotr. The number and distribution of the Polish population in Ukraine in the twentieth century. [Liczba i rozmieszczenie ludnosci polskiej na Ukrainie w XX wieku.] Czasopismo Geograficzne/Geographical Journal, Vol. 65, No. 2, 1994. 125-63 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng.
"The paper presents the number and distribution of Polish population in present Ukrainian territory in the twentieth century. The introduction includes historical information about background and history of Polish population in earlier periods....The changes caused by World War [II] including changes of the borders [are then] evaluated....The assessment of war losses is followed by post-war demographic analysis. The next part of the paper is the interpretation of the data of 1959 and 1989 Russian Censuses. The number of Polish population in static and dynamic aspects is presented. Besides the national statistics, the data on mother-tongue were considered. The scale and intensification of sovietization and russification processes are demonstrated, as well as their influence on national consciousness of Poles."
Correspondence: P. Eberhardt, PAN Instytut Geografii i Przestrzennego Zagospodarowania, Krakowskie Przedmiescie 30, 00-927 Warsaw, Poland. Location: University of Michigan Library, Ann Arbor, MI.

63:30093 Grünheid, Evelyn; Schulz, Reiner. 1996 report on the demographic situation in Germany. [Bericht 1996 über die demographische Lage in Deutschland.] Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 21, No. 4, 1996. 345-439 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The authors examine the demographic situation in Germany as of 1996. Information is provided on population growth and its determinants, marriage patterns, live births, mortality, immigration, number of households, employment, and population projections. Trends in Germany since 1960 are compared with those in other European Union member countries.
Correspondence: E. Grünheid, Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung, 65180 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30094 Hull, Terence H. Continuing demographic transitions in Asia. Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Vol. 10, No. 1, May 1996. 42-53 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This article updates the literature survey on demographic trends and policies published in the May 1987 issue of this journal. It reports substantial adjustments in earlier population projections, suggesting slower decline in population growth rates for China and several other Asian countries. It gives an account of recent trends and policies in the Asian-Pacific region, especially China, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore."
For the article referred to, see 53:30046.
Correspondence: T. H. Hull, Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Department of Demography, G.P.O. 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

63:30095 Japan. Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Current population estimates as of October 1, 1996. Population Estimates Series, No. 68, Jun 1997. 85 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Census-based population estimates are presented for Japan for 1996. The estimates for all Japan are by age and sex, and the estimates for prefectures are for five-year age groups and sex.
Correspondence: Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30096 McKibben, Jerome N.; Swanson, David A. Linking substance and practice: a case study of the relationship between socio-economic structure and population estimation. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 23, No. 2, 1997. 135-47 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Population estimation methods designed for the state/provincial and county levels generally exhibit high levels of accuracy. However, there are persistent shortcomings that have not been resolved through methodological development. We argue that at least some of these shortcomings would be better understood by linking these methods with the substantive socio-economic and demographic dynamics that clearly must be underlying the changes in population that the methods are designed to measure. To illustrate our main point, we conduct a case study of Indiana over two periods, 1970-1980 and 1980-1990. Indiana is selected because a common population estimation method exhibits a common problem over the two periods: its coefficients change. We link these changes to Indiana's transition to a post-industrial economy and describe how this transition operated through demographic dynamics that ultimately affected the estimation model."
Correspondence: J. N. McKibben, University of Southern Mississippi, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Hattiesburg, MS 39406. Location: Princeton University Library (SF).

63:30097 Prioux, France. Recent demographic trends. [L'évolution démographique récente.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 3, May-Jun 1997. 637-64 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This is one in a regular series of articles describing recent demographic trends in France. For most of the topics, the most recent data are for 1996. There are sections on general trends, fertility, generational fertility, induced abortion, marriage, nuptiality, marriage and cohabitation, divorce, and mortality.
Correspondence: F. Prioux, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30098 Sommer, Bettina. Marriages, births and deaths, 1995. [Eheschließungen, Geburten und Sterbefälle, 1995.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 4, Apr 1997. 220-5 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
This is a report on marriages, births, and deaths in Germany in 1995. Comparisons are drawn between the former East and West Germany. A continuing increase in marriage age is noted, as is an increase in the age of mothers. Life expectancy continues to increase as well.
Correspondence: B. Sommer, Statistisches Bundesamt, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 11, 6200 Wiesbaden 1, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

63:30099 Steenkamp, H. A. Population estimates for the RSA by magisterial district and province, 1997. Research Report/Navorsingsverslag, No. 243, ISBN 0-947459-59-6. 1997. ix, 78 pp. University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research: Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
Population estimates are presented for South Africa for 1997 using data from a number of published sources. "The population estimates are presented by population group and magisterial district and are further summarised by statistical region, metropolitan area and province."
For previous estimates, see 62:40081.
Correspondence: University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research, P.O. Box 392, Pretoria 0003, South Africa. E-mail: martijh@alpha.unisa.ac.za. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

63:30100 Campbell, Paul. Population projections: states, 1995-2025. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1131, May 1997. 6 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report identifies population changes that are projected to affect the 50 states and the District of Columbia during the years 1995 to 2025." Additional detailed data are available for a fee both on diskette and in paper format. The information in this report, excluding the detailed data, is available on the World Wide Web (http://www.census.gov).
Correspondence: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Customer Services, Washington, D.C. 20233. E-mail: Paul.R.Campbell@ccmail.census.gov. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30101 Chile. Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas [INE] (Santiago, Chile); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Chile: population estimates and projections by age and sex. The whole country: 1950-2050. [Chile: estimaciones y proyecciones de población por sexo y edad. Total pais: 1950-2050.] CELADE Serie OI, No. 97, 1995. 135 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Chile by age and sex for the period from 1950 to 2050. The projections were developed using the component method; they are based on census data, including the 1992 census, and vital statistics sources. The quality of the data, and the methodology used to prepare the projections, are discussed in the first two chapters.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas, Avenida Presidente Bulnes 418, Casilla 498, Correo 3, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30102 Courbage, Youssef. Demography in the countries to the south of the Mediterranean in the twenty-first century: some changes in perspective. [La démographie en rive sud de la Méditerranée au XXIe siècle: changement de perspectives.] Espace, Populations, Sociétés, No. 1, 1997. 11-26 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"The concern...[with the] demographic growth of the Southern shore of the Mediterranean sea has slightly abated. Yet, the population projections which are currently produced by the United Nations away from the field, with...often very outdated data and...a globalizing approach, [do] not always contribute to ease the debate. This article reviews the current population projections [using] a more refined methodology and...the most up-to-date statistics. With the sole exception of Egypt, the slowing-down is striking for all the heavily populated countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Syria and Turkey and sometimes for the smallest: Libya, Lebanon, Israel and Palestine. Although largely disregarded, the implications of this new demographic regime are considered in terms of the competition between population and economic growth, supply and demand of labour force, expansion of a potential southern common market, and geopolitics."
Correspondence: Y. Courbage, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30103 Japan. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (Tokyo, Japan). Population projections for Japan: 1996-2100. Research Series, No. 291, Apr 30, 1997. ii, 240 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population projections are presented for Japan up to the year 2100.
Correspondence: Ministry of Health and Welfare, National Institute of Population and Social Security, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30104 Manting, D.; Butzelaar, E. Forecasts of the foreign population 1996-2015. [Allochtonenprognose 1996-2015.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 45, No. 3, Mar 1997. 30-46 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The authors examine forecasts of the foreign population in the Netherlands up to the year 2015. Information is included on country of origin; fertility according to birth country of mother; intermarriages and fertility; and age structure.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30105 Partida Bush, Virgilio. Basic instrument of regional planning. [Instrumento básico de la planeación regional.] Démos, No. 9, 1996. 6-8 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
The author presents results of recent projections of Mexico's population at the state level, from 1995 to 2010.
Correspondence: V. Partida Bush, Consejo Nacional de Población, Avenida Angel Urraza 1137, Col. Del Valle, C.P. 03100 Mexico City, DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30106 Spain. Instituto Nacional de Estadística [INE] (Madrid, Spain). Population projections for Spain calculated from the 1991 population census. National totals, 1990-2020; autonomous communities and provinces, 1990-2005. [Proyecciones de la población de España calculada del Censo de Población de 1991. Total nacional 1990-2020; comunidades autónomas y provincias 1990-2005.] ISBN 84-260-3096-3. 1995. 131 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
Population projections are presented for Spain by age and sex using final data from the 1991 census. Projections for the whole country are made up to the year 2020, and those for autonomous communities and provinces up to the year 2005. Chapters are included on trends in mortality, fertility, and both internal and international migration. The detailed projections and an explanation of the methodology used are provided on three diskettes accompanying the publication.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Paseo de la Castellana 183, 28046 Madrid, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30107 Yuan, Jianhua; Zhuang, Yan; Xu, Yi. Applying a discrete progressive model of age-categorized school enrollment in the projection of China's future population. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 8, No. 4, 1996. 421-35 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This investigation examines the predictive patterns of several proposed plans in the analysis and projection of the Chinese population in the year 2000, the year 2010, and beyond as well as the educational characteristics of the population at various stages of development. The analyses and predictions are based on the application of a discrete progressive model of age-categorized school enrollment patterns which are most reflective of the interaction between population size and population educational level. Also introduced into the model are two sets of control variables: the total fertility rate which indicates women's general fertility and number of students admitted which is an indicator of general educational capacity."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

63:30108 Forstall, Richard L. Population of states and counties of the United States: 1790-1990. From the twenty-one decennial censuses. ISBN 0-934213-48-8. Mar 1996. x, 226 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. Distributed by National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Springfield, VA 22161. In Eng.
"This publication provides the populations of States and their counties according to the twenty-one decennial U.S. censuses conducted from 1790 to 1990. This is the first time in almost 100 years that data for counties back to 1790 have appeared in a census publication....Part I provides an introduction and explanation of the information contained in the report. Part II is a single table giving the populations of States, for the censuses taken since they were established as Territories or States. So far as possible the States are shown in their present-day boundaries. If the State or its predecessor Territory had a different geographic extent at a census, a note in Part III explains the difference. Part III consists of tables for each of the 50 States and the district of Columbia, with populations for counties or equivalent areas at each census. In these State tables, after the last column of populations a Notes column provides information on the origin of each county, other names it has had, etc....Following the population tables, Part IV gives for each State the date of the first census for each county, the date of the census since which the county has not had any significant alterations in boundaries, and the Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code for the county."
Correspondence: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30109 González Quiñones, Fernando R.; Ramos Piñol, Oscar R. Cuba: trends and estimated demographic indicators for the period 1900-1959. [Cuba: balance e indicadores demográficos estimados del período 1900-1959.] ISBN 959-7005-05-0. 1996. 52 pp. Universidad de la Habana, Centro de Estudios Demográficos [CEDEM]: Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
Methods of inverse projection developed by Ronald D. Lee and the software Populate are used to recalculate population developments in Cuba from 1900 to 1959. Annual estimates of population size by sex are presented, as are estimates by sex of births, deaths, and migrations.
Correspondence: Universidad de la Habana, Centro de Estudios Demográficos, Avenida 41 Número 2003, Playa 13, Havana, Cuba. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30110 Graham, David. The use of published population census burgh ward data for local population studies: Dundee, 1901-1971. Local Population Studies, No. 58, Spring 1997. 26-36 pp. Colchester, England. In Eng.
"A useful source for local population studies in Scotland is the ward data in the Census of Population....This paper [looks] at the information provided in the main published reports between 1901 and 1971. The analysis concentrates on those demographic and social variables which are, as near as is possible, comparable throughout the series and which can form the basis of local population studies."
Correspondence: D. Graham, Nottingham Trent University, Department of International Studies, Burton Street, Nottingham NG1 4BU, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30111 Katus, Kalev; Puur, Allan; Põldma, Asta; Sakkeus, Luule. Reviewed population vital and census statistics, Viljandimaa 1965-1990. [Rahvastiku ühtlusarvutatud sündmus- ja loendusstatistika, Viljandimaa 1965-1990.] Eesti Rahvastikustatistika/Population Statistics of Estonia, RU Seeria A, No. 8, ISBN 9985-820-20-7. 1996. lxix, 353 pp. Estonian Interuniversity Population Research Centre: Tallinn, Estonia. In Est. with sum. in Eng.
This report stems from a project to try and develop accurate and consistent demographic data for Estonia for the period prior to independence, when the country formed part of the Soviet Union. "The volume presents vital and census statistics for Viljandi county 1965-1990. Vital statistics include indicators which could be subjected to recalculation resulting in consistent time series covering the whole period. Regarding census statistics, the 1989 census microdata is newly processed to produce a set of regional standard tabulations, covering all municipalities in full amount. The data for earlier censuses follows the same standard set, providing all the comparable data and discarding non-comparable tabulations. Due to the access to microdata, the 1979 census is noticeably better represented than two earlier censuses for which only aggregate tabulations were available....The volume is accompanied with the diskette including a set of computerized graphs to illustrate the main features of the county population."
Correspondence: Estonian Interuniversity Population Research Centre, P.O. Box 3012, 0090 Tallinn, Estonia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30112 MacDonald, Kenneth I. Population change in the upper Braldu Valley, Baltistan, 1900-1990: all is not as it seems. Mountain Research and Development, Vol. 16, No. 4, 1996. 351-66 pp. Berkeley, California. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"This paper examines population change in the upper Braldu Valley of the Karakoram range in northern Pakistan between 1900 and 1990. Population has declined over the 90-year period of observation and the majority of that decline is accounted for by females....The paper discusses apparent demographic trends in a contemporary and historical context and questions the extension of vague, unqualified, context-independent population statistics to an area where apparently they do not apply. It argues that only by interpreting demographic change from within such a local context can the relevance of population control policies be scrutinized. This paper is not an exhaustive demographic analysis but presents data from a little-studied region of the Himalayan area and is meant to open avenues for future research there."
Correspondence: K. I. MacDonald, University of Toronto, Department of Geography, 1265 Military Trail, Scarborough, Ontario M1C 1A4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30113 Turcic, Ivan. Population of the Republic of Croatia by counties and districts: 1857-1991. [Stanovnistvo Republike Hrvatske po zupanijama i kotarima: 1857-1991.] No. 115, ISBN 953-6030-10-1. 1995. vii, 107 pp. Ekonomski Institut: Zagreb, Croatia. In Scr.
Population trends at the local level in Croatia are analyzed for the period 1857-1991. There are tables on population density by county and district for selected years, the urban population, and settlements of over 2,000 and 5,000 inhabitants.
Correspondence: Ekonomski Institut, Trg. J. F. Kennedy 7, 1000 Zagreb, Croatia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1997, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.