Volume 63 - Number 2 - Summer 1997

E. Mortality

Studies that treat quantitative mortality data analytically. Methodological studies primarily concerned with mortality are cited in this division and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models, if necessary. The main references to crude data are in the vital statistics items in S. Official Statistical Publications.

E.1. General Mortality

Studies of overall mortality and comparisons of several types of mortality. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are classified under the major section covered, or, if this is not self-evident, included here under General Mortality.

63:20068 Arriaga, Eduardo E. The use of years of life lost for measuring the level and change of mortality. [Los años de vida perdidos: su utilización para medir el nivel y cambio de la mortalidad.] Notas de Población, Vol. 24, No. 63, Jun 1996. 7-38 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"The use of the new index of years of life lost allows us to relate mortality by age and causes of death to the change of the life expectancy, at birth or between any given ages. This index replaces the use of the multiple decrement life tables for analyzing the impact of the change in mortality by age and cause of death on the life expectancies....The article presents the theoretical derivation of the index, some examples of its use, and a detailed calculation." Examples provided include Mexico, Chile, and Argentina.
Correspondence: E. E. Arriaga, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20069 Avdeev, Alexandre; Blum, Alain; Zakharov, Serge; Andreev, Evgenij. The reaction of a heterogeneous population to perturbation. An interpretative model of mortality trends in Russia. [Réaction d'une population hétérogène à une perturbation. Un modèle d'interprétation des évolutions de mortalité en Russie.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1997. 7-44 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"The rapid increase in mortality in Russia during the past ten years is perplexing....In this paper, the authors offer a new interpretation of these dynamics which complements those put forward by previous authors....They suggest that recent developments are the cumulative result of a compensation mechanism which followed the rapid decrease in mortality which occurred around 1985, and of the continuation of a deterioration movement which began in the early 1960s. It does not represent a new trend to a rapidly deteriorating situation. To prove this and to explain these rapid fluctuations, the authors have developed a model based on hypotheses which involve heterogeneous populations."
Correspondence: A. Blum, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. E-mail: blum@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20070 Bocco, Mónica. The relationship between years of life lost and life expectancy: applications to the analysis of mortality. [La relación entre los años de vida perdidos y la esperanza de vida: aplicaciones para el análisis de la mortalidad.] Notas de Población, Vol. 24, No. 63, Jun 1996. 39-60 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"This paper presents a new, continuous, version of the index of years of life lost (YLL) in the population, distinguishing different causes of death. Also, it shows the mathematical relationship between the YLL and temporary life expectancies in the discrete and continuous cases....The model is applied to the analysis of mortality of the province of Córdoba, Argentina, during 1947-1991."
Correspondence: M. Bocco, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Calle Obispo Trejo 242, 5000 Córdoba, Argentina. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20071 Carey, James R. What demographers can learn from fruit fly actuarial models and biology. Demography, Vol. 34, No. 1, Feb 1997. 17-30 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"Historically demographers have viewed the results of actuarial studies of nonhuman species, particularly those on invertebrates such as fruit flies, as largely irrelevant to investigations on human populations. In this paper I present life table data from large scale studies on the Mediterranean fruit fly, and show that they provide important insights into fundamental aspects of mortality relevant to human populations: the trajectory of mortality at older ages, sex mortality differentials, the concept of maximal life span, and demographic heterogeneity and selection. An overriding theme of the paper is the need for demographers to acquire a heightened awareness of new developments in biology including areas such as evolutionary ecology, experimental demography and molecular medicine."
Correspondence: J. R. Carey, University of California, Department of Entomology, Davis, CA 95616. E-mail: jrcarey@ucdavis.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20072 Caselli, Graziella. Mortality forecasts. In: Demografia: analisi e sintesi. Cause e conseguenze dei processi demografici, edited by Graziella Caselli. Apr 1996. 85-102 pp. Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche: Rome, Italy. In Eng.
Two approaches to making mortality forecasts are examined: the extrapolation method, based on past mortality trends, and the target method, whereby a threshold is fixed which the mortality indicator should reach at the end of the forecast period. "This chapter will look at these two approaches, indicating the hypotheses and methods most widely used in demography. The results will be given of a number of applications for ex post comparisons with data observed to assess each method's potential in interpreting the reality in question. Focus will then be given to the impact of the length of the data series on the forecasts' outcome, also taking into consideration for certain countries in Europe the estimates provided by some international and national bodies." The author stresses the importance of analyzing potential changes in individual causes of death.
Correspondence: G. Caselli, Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, Via Nomentana 41, 00161 Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20073 Lee, Ronald; Tuljapurkar, Shripad. Death and taxes: longer life, consumption, and social security. Demography, Vol. 34, No. 1, Feb 1997. 67-81 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"In this paper we focus on the influence of mortality decline on the long run finances of the [U.S.] Social Security system, excluding Medicare. The paper is divided into three parts. In the first part we develop an analytic approach for deriving comparative static effects of different mortality levels....In the second part...we consider the likely extent of mortality declines in the coming decades....In the third part, we combine the work of the first two parts in dynamic simulations to examine the implications of mortality decline and of alternative forecasts of mortality for the finances of the Social Security system. Also, we develop stochastic population forecasts as outlined by Lee and Tuljapurkar (1994) of the Social Security finances, which we compare to recent Social Security Administration forecasts, and use to assess the relative importance of uncertainty in mortality and fertility."
Correspondence: R. Lee, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. E-mail: rlee@demog.berkeley.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20074 Olshansky, S. Jay; Carnes, Bruce A. Ever since Gompertz. Demography, Vol. 34, No. 1, Feb 1997. 1-15 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"In 1825 British actuary Benjamin Gompertz made a simple but important observation that a law of geometrical progression pervades large portions of different tables of mortality for humans. The simple formula he derived describing the exponential rise in death rates between sexual maturity and old age is commonly referred to as the Gompertz equation--a formula that remains a valuable tool in demography and in other scientific disciplines. Gompertz's observation of a mathematical regularity in the life table led him to believe in the presence of a law of mortality that explained why common age patterns of death exist....In this paper we review the literature on Gompertz's law of mortality and discuss the importance of his observations and insights in light of research on aging that has taken place since then."
Correspondence: S. J. Olshansky, University of Chicago, Department of Medicine, 5841 South Maryland Avenue, MC 6098, Chicago, IL 60637. E-mail: sjayo@cicero.spc.uchicago.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20075 Ostroot, Nathalie M. Estimating urban mortality under the ancien régime: Aix-en-Provence and Toulouse in 1695. [L'estimation de la mortalité urbaine sous l'ancien régime: Aix-en-Provence et Toulouse en 1695.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1997. 63-75 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"When estimates of death rates were established for the end of the seventeenth century, some of the calculated rates were so low that it was presumed that a serious under registration of deaths had occurred....This study [translated from the original English] reports the results of an exhaustive research of all the burial registers corresponding to the many burial sites existing in Aix-en-Provence and Toulouse in 1695. The investigation uncovered numerous burials that had been overlooked by earlier research. The revised burial statistics imply death rates that are comparable to rates believed to be reliable for other cities at the end of the seventeenth century."
Correspondence: N. M. Ostroot, 5 rue des Chaudronniers, 13100 Aix-en-Provence, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20076 Tan, K. C.; Low, C. K. Contributions of various major causes of death to life expectancy in Singapore, 1980-1990. Singapore Medical Journal, Vol. 37, No. 4, 1996. 348-51 pp. Singapore. In Eng.
"This paper considers the contributions by age of the various major groups of deaths to the increase in life expectancy at birth between 1980 and 1990 for both sexes in Singapore. Sixteen cause groups were used in the study. The data were analysed using LIFETIME, a personal computer package with a wide variety of methods for mortality investigations. Respiratory diseases made the largest contribution to the increase in life expectancy for both sexes. In contrast, ischaemic heart disease made a negative contribution of 1% in the gain in female life expectancy but contributed 12% improvement for males. Life tables for Singaporean males and females in the year 2000 were projected by extrapolating the mortality trends observed in earlier periods. The calculations show the life expectancy at birth in the year 2000 to be 74.72 years for males and 79.48 years for females."
Correspondence: K. C. Tan, Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang Business School, Division of Actuarial Science and Insurance, Singapore 639798. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.2. Prenatal and Perinatal Mortality

Studies dealing primarily with fetal and neonatal mortality, except those dealing with spontaneous abortions, which are classified under F.3. Sterility and Other Pathology, and those studies dealing with induced abortions, which are classified under F.4.5. Induced Abortion. Perinatal mortality is defined as mortality occurring between the twenty-eighth week of gestation and the seventh day of life.

63:20077 Kristensen, Petter; Irgens, Lorentz M.; Bjerkedal, Tor. Environmental factors, reproductive history, and selective fertility in farmers' sibships. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 145, No. 9, May 1, 1997. 817-25 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
Using data on births to Norwegian farmers, it is shown that there is a relationship between grain farming and giving birth in mid-pregnancy, probably associated with the labor-inducing effect of mycotoxins from grain field fungi. "The effect of the mother's reproductive history on the grain farming-midpregnancy delivery association was analyzed in 59,338 farmers with more than one single birth in 1967-1991. A history of preterm birth [less than 37 weeks] in previous or subsequent pregnancies both was an independent determinant of midpregnancy delivery and also increased the effect of grain exposure. Nongrain farmers with a history of only term births had 1.3 midpregnancy deliveries per 1,000 births; grain farmers with a history of only term births had 1.8 cases per 1,000;...nongrain farmers with a history of preterm birth had 6.8 cases per 1,000...whereas grain farmers with a history of preterm birth had 13.7 cases per 1,000....Selective fertility had only a marginal impact on the association. The study demonstrates that a maternally based design can contribute in the assessment of joint effects of environmental and maternal factors."
Correspondence: P. Kristensen, National Institute of Occupational Health, P.O. Box 8149 Dep, 0033 Oslo, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

63:20078 Waldhoer, T.; Haidinger, G.; Langgassner, Jeannette; Tuomilehto, J. The effect of maternal age and birth weight on the temporal trend in stillbirth rate in Austria during 1984-1993. Wiener Klinische Wochenschrift, Vol. 108, No. 20, 1996. 643-8 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Eng. with sum. in Ger.
"We assessed the risk of stillbirth in Austria during 1984-1993 in dependence of the variables maternal age, birth weight, year of birth and sex. All children born in Austria between 1984 and 1993 were included in the study (905,939 births)....During the study period, stillbirths decreased significantly in Austria. Both birth weight and maternal age had a non-linear association with the risk of stillbirth....We also found a significant interaction between birth weight and year of birth suggesting that the effect of birth weight was not stable over the years. The proportion of young mothers (<20 years) decreased clearly over the observation period."
Correspondence: T. Waldhoer, University of Vienna, Department of Epidemiology, Institute of Tumor Biology--Cancer Research, Borschkegasse 8a, 1090 Vienna, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.3. Infant and Childhood Mortality

Studies of infant mortality under one year of age, including neonatal mortality occurring after the seventh day of life, and childhood mortality after one year of age. The subject of infanticide, deliberate or implied, is also classified under this heading.

63:20079 Bloland, Peter; Slutsker, Laurence; Steketee, Richard W.; Wirima, Jack J.; Heymann, David L.; Breman, Joel G. Rates and risk factors for mortality during the first two years of life in rural Malawi. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Suppl., Vol. 55, No. 1, 1996. 82-6 pp. Atlanta, Georgia. In Eng.
"In a rural Malawian community we investigated risk factors for deaths occurring during the neonatal (birth--28 days), postneonatal (29-365 days), infant (birth-365 days), and second-year (366-730 days) periods among a cohort of 3,724 infants monitored from birth....The predominate risk factors for neonatal deaths identified in multivariate analysis were low (hazard ratio [HR]=2.3) and very low birth weight (HR=12.7), first pregnancy (HR=1.8) and maternal syphilis infection (HR=2.4). Maternal infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (HR=1.5) predominated for postneonatal deaths. Low (HR=1.4) and very low (HR=5.0) birth weight, first pregnancy (HR=1.6), maternal HIV infection (HR=2.4), and the combination of low education and low socioeconomic status (SES) of the mother (HR=2.0) were the most important factors during the infant period."
Correspondence: P. Bloland, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Parasitic Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20080 Desgrées du Loû, Annabel; Pison, Gilles. The role of vaccination in the reduction of childhood mortality in Senegal. Population: An English Selection, Vol. 8, 1996. 95-121 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
"The aim of the present paper is to evaluate the role of vaccination programmes in the reduction of childhood mortality in Africa, by taking Senegal as a case study....[We] use the Bandafassi population laboratory data to study at a finer level the relationship between the two. In part I, we describe the decline of childhood mortality in Senegal since the end of the Second World War and review the different health programmes implemented during this period. In part II, we measure more specifically the impact of the immunization programme in rural Bandafassi, discuss its weaknesses and the scope for improvement."
For the original French version, see 62:10115.
Correspondence: A. Desgrées du Loû, Musée de l'Homme, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Laboratoire d'Anthropologie Biologique, 17 Place du Trocadéro, 75116 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20081 Han, Youngja; Lee, Seungwook; Doh, Serok. A method of estimating infant deaths in Korea. Health and Social Welfare Review, Vol. 16, No. 2, Winter 1996. 167-85 pp. Seoul, Korea, Republic of. In Eng. with sum. in Kor.
"The goal of this project was to develop a new method for estimating infant deaths in [South] Korea. An attempt was made to collect information on real infant death cases by using...medical insurance benefit data and by conducting a medical facilities survey, which allows us to [trace] back the fate of the births from the delivery. Another strategy employed was the gathering of information on infant deaths from the various existing sources and integrating them into one set after adjusting for overlapping cases among the sources."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20082 Langford, I. H.; Bentham, G. A multilevel model of sudden infant death syndrome in England and Wales. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 29, No. 4, Apr 1997. 629-40 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The relationship between migration and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) in England and Wales is analyzed using official data for the period 1979-1983. "In this paper, multilevel modelling is used to examine the variability in SIDS deaths at different geographical scales, namely district, county, and regional levels. Given the population-mixing hypothesis, it is possible that high levels of population mixing in one district will have an effect on the spread of infections in an adjacent district, and the rates for individual districts will not be spatially independent of each other. Factors such as climate varying at regional scale may also be important. A log-linear multilevel model is developed to examine these issues, and the discussion focuses on the methodological issues raised by the analysis such as appropriate multilevel structure, methods of estimation, dispersion of residuals, and significance of parameter estimates."
Correspondence: I. H. Langford, University of East Anglia, Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, Norwich NR4 7TJ, England. E-mail: i.langford@uea.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

63:20083 Macció, Guillermo A.; Damonte, Ana M. Child and adolescent mortality in Uruguay. [La mortalidad de la niñez y en la adolescencia en el Uruguay.] Notas de Población, Vol. 24, No. 63, Jun 1996. 61-116 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"Uruguay can be ranked among the countries with fairly reliable vital statistics. The last population census included questions about ever-born and surviving children which allow [the derivation of] independent estimations relative to level and trends of infant and early childhood mortality. The purpose of this paper is to estimate such parameters based on 1985 Census information and compare them with those of 1975. Furthermore, particular interest is paid to the differentials which show that Uruguayan society is no longer the homogeneous society it seemed to be decades ago....The last chapter is devoted to examining infant mortality by causes of death. This section evaluates the amount of lives that could be saved, if deaths due to exogenous factors are avoided."
Correspondence: G. A. Macció, Avenida Baltasar Brum 654, Apartado 803, Colonia del Sacramento, C.P. 70.000, Uruguay. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20084 McMurray, Christine. Measuring excess risk of child mortality: an exploration of DHS I for Burundi, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 29, No. 1, Jan 1997. 73-91 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"This paper proposes a new method of measuring excess risk of child mortality in cross-sectional surveys, which is applied to DHS I data for Burundi, Uganda and Zimbabwe. The expected child mortality experience is estimated for each mother on the basis of child's age, mother's age at child's birth and her parity, and compared with her observed experience. Mothers who exceed their expected child mortality experience and also had more than one child die are considered to have excess child mortality. Zimbabwe had the greatest concentration of child deaths as measured by a simple ratio of mothers to deaths, but when observed experience was compared with expected it had less than half as many excess deaths as Uganda and Burundi. In all three countries mother's education had a strong negative association with the risk of excess child mortality, and in Zimbabwe and Burundi there were significant regional differences."
Correspondence: C. McMurray, Australian National University, Graduate Studies in Demography, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20085 Shell-Duncan, Bettina. Determinants of child survival in traditional societies: the application and test of a theoretical framework. Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper, No. 97-5, 1997. 31 pp. University of Washington, Seattle Population Research Center: Seattle, Washington; Battelle Seattle Research Center: Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"The study of biobehavioral factors affecting child survival has long been a central concern in biological anthropology....In this paper, an analytical framework for the study of child survival, adopting a proximate determinants approach, is developed and tested among nomadic Turkana children in northwest Kenya. In this model, cellular immunocompetence is proposed as a proximate determinant of morbidity and mortality, mediating the effect of nutritional stress. Results of the case study among Turkana children demonstrate that cellular immunocompetence can be measured reliably in a remote field setting, and that these measures are, in fact, sensitive, meaningful indicators of child health, providing important prognostic information on the risk of infectious morbidity. Furthermore, findings of this study support the positioning of cellular immunocompetence as a key factor mediating the effects of nutritional stress on child survival."
Correspondence: B. Shell-Duncan, University of Washington, Department of Anthropology, P.O. Box 353100, Seattle, WA 98195. E-mail: bsd@u.washington.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20086 Slutsker, Laurence; Bloland, Peter; Steketee, Richard W.; Wirima, Jack J.; Heymann, David L.; Breman, Joel G. Infant and second-year mortality in rural Malawi: causes and descriptive epidemiology. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Suppl., Vol. 55, No. 1, 1996. 77-81 pp. Atlanta, Georgia. In Eng.
"Prospective follow-up of infants born to women enrolled in the Mangochi Malaria Research Project (MMRP) [in Malawi] provided an opportunity to investigate the causes and circumstances of death in this cohort....Reported here are the predominant clinical syndromes or causes of mortality and certain descriptive features of these deaths including age at death, duration of preceding illness, whether treatment was sought, and location of death (home versus health facility) among children dying in the neonatal, postneonatal, and second year of life." The authors find that "in this area of rural sub-Saharan Africa, neonatal mortality contributes substantially to infant mortality, and prematurity is considered to be an important component of early neonatal deaths; infectious disease syndromes predominate in the postneonatal and second year of life."
Correspondence: L. Slutsker, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Bacterial and Mycotic Diseases, Foodborne and Diarrheal Diseases Branch, Mailstop A-38, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20087 Tabeau, Ewa. Changing definitions in infant mortality: a case study of the Netherlands, 1843-1991. Bevolking en Gezin, No. 1, 1994. 79-107 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
"This article resulted from research on Dutch mortality by age, period, and cohort in the years 1843-1991, conducted at the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) in The Hague. Changing definitions of terms used in infant mortality analysis in the entire period are investigated, and their impact on stillbirths, infant deaths, and (live and total) births are demonstrated. Sex and age-specific trends in infant mortality in the Netherlands, recalculated due to current definitions, are presented and commented. Finally, some reflections on the possible future trends of infant mortality in the Netherlands are discussed."
Correspondence: E. Tabeau, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20088 United Nations. Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe [CEPAL] (Santiago, Chile); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile); United Nations. Fondo de las Naciones Unidas para la Infancia [UNICEF]. Oficina Regional para América Latina y el Caribe (Santiago, Chile). Latin America: child mortality. A database for 1995. [América Latina: mortalidad en la niñez. Una base de datos actualizada en 1995.] CELADE Serie OI, No. 109, Pub. Order No. LC/DEM/G.157. Dec 1995. 244 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
This report presents a summary of the data on infant and child mortality in Latin America as available in 1995. The data are presented individually by country for five-year periods from 1960 to 1995, and include information on mortality differences by socioeconomic factors such as maternal education and place of residence. An introductory section reviews the situation for the region as a whole.
Correspondence: UN Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.4. Mortality at Other Ages

Studies of age-specific mortality and of mortality in special groups defined by age.

63:20089 Asuzu, M. C.; Johnson, O. O.; Owoaje, E. E.; Rotimi, C. N.; Kaufman, J. S.; Cooper, R. S. Questions on adult mortality. World Health Forum, Vol. 17, No. 4, 1996. 373-6 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
"Using verbal autopsy, a study on adult mortality is being conducted in Ibadan, Nigeria. The ultimate goal is to develop a capacity for establishing the crude and cause-specific adult mortality rates in a traditional urban community by this method....The principal problem was the reluctance of the local people to discuss deaths of adults in the community. Other impediments included the low rate of utilization of formal health services and the small proportion of deaths occurring in hospitals."
Correspondence: J. S. Kaufman, Loyola University Medical Center, Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, 2160 S. First Avenue, Maywood, IL 60153. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20090 Kushi, Lawrence H.; Fee, Rebecca M.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Mink, Pamela J.; Anderson, Kristin E.; Sellers, Thomas A. Physical activity and mortality in postmenopausal women. JAMA: Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 277, No. 16, Apr 23-30, 1997. 1,287-92 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
The association between physical activity and all-cause mortality in postmenopausal women is analyzed using data on 40,417 Iowa women aged 55-69 in 1986. The "results demonstrate a graded, inverse association between physical activity and all-cause mortality in postmenopausal women. These findings strengthen the confidence that...recommendations to engage in regular physical activity are applicable to postmenopausal women."
Correspondence: L. H. Kushi, University of Minnesota, School of Public Health, Division of Epidemiology, 1300 S. Second Street, Suite 300, Minneapolis, MN 55454-1015. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

63:20091 Nusselder, Wilma J.; Mackenbach, Johan P. Rectangularization of the survival curve in the Netherlands, 1950-1992. Gerontologist, Vol. 36, No. 6, Dec 1996. 773-82 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this article we determine whether rectangularization of the survival curve occurred in the Netherlands in the period 1950-1992. Rectangularization is defined as a trend toward a more rectangular shape of the survival curve due to increased survival and concentration of deaths around the mean age at death....Our results show that absolute and relative rectangularization of the entire survival curve occurred in both sexes and over the complete period (except for the years 1955-1959 and 1965-1969 in men). At older ages, results differ between sexes, periods, and an absolute versus a relative definition of rectangularization....The implications of the recent rectangularization at older ages for achieving compression of morbidity are discussed."
Correspondence: W. J. Nusselder, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Department of Public Health, Postbus 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

E.5. Life Tables

Studies that present actual life table data and all studies concerned primarily with life tables, including the appropriate methodological studies. Life table studies that are concerned with topics other than mortality are classified under the appropriate heading and cross-referenced to this heading.

63:20092 Chung, Sung J. Comprehensive life table of computer-assisted predictive mathematical relationship between age and life expectancy, survival probability or death rate in U.S. adults. Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine, Vol. 52, No. 1, 1997. 67-73 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"A microcomputer program in BASIC for predicting life expectancy by age in U.S. adults was designed. Formulas used in this study were derived from the data reported by the National Center for Health Statistics. A comprehensive life table that shows the relationship between age and death rate, survival probability or life expectancy for each year between 25 and 85 years of age was obtained in this study, using a newly designed computer program for predicting life expectancy by age and the program for survival probability previously published by the author. The comprehensive life table may be useful for clinical evaluation of patients and further helpful for biomedical investigation and epidemiological evaluation of U.S. adults."
Correspondence: S. J. Chung, Morristown-Hamblen Hospital, Department of Pathology, 908 West Fourth North Street, Morristown, TN 37814. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20093 Honkanen, Ossi. Life tables, 1991-1995. [Kuolleisuus- ja eloonjäämistauluja 1991-95/Dödlighets- och livslängdstabeller.] Väestö/Befolkning/Population, No. 1997:4, ISBN 951-727-311-8. 1997. 34 pp. Tilastokeskus: Helsinki, Finland. In Fin. with sum. in Eng; Swe.
"This publication comprises life tables for [Finland] by type of municipality and province compiled for the period 1991-1995 and probability of death rates by marital status."
Correspondence: Tilastokeskus, P.O. Box 3B, 00022 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20094 Jiménez Ornelas, René A. Inequalities in mortality in Mexico: life tables for the Mexican Republic and its administrative divisions, 1990. [La desigualdad de la mortalidad en México: tablas de mortalidad para la República Mexicana y sus entidades federativas, 1990.] ISBN 968-36-4767-7. 1995. [138] pp. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisciplinarias: Cuernavaca, Mexico. In Spa.
Mortality trends in Mexico for the period 1900-1980 are first described. Next, the author assesses the impact on mortality of the economic and social crises that occurred in 1990. Following a description of the methodology used, abbreviated life tables are presented for the whole country and its major administrative divisions.
Correspondence: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisciplinarias, Avenida Universidad s/n, Segundo Circuito 2, Col. Chamilpa, Cuernavaca, Estado Morelos, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20095 Panama. Dirección de Estadística y Censo (Panama City, Panama). Panamanian statistics. The demographic situation. Abbreviated life tables for the whole republic and the provinces by sex: five-year periods from 1990-1995 to 2005-2010. [Estadística panameña. Situación demográfica. Tablas abreviadas de vida de la república, por provincia, segun sexo: quinquenio 1990-95 al 2005-10.] Boletín Especial, No. 4, May 1996. 51 pp. Panama City, Panama. In Spa.
Abbreviated life tables by sex are presented for Panama for five-year periods from 1990 to 2010.
Correspondence: Dirección de Estadística y Censo, Contraloría General de la República, Apartado 5213, Panama City 5, Panama. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.6. Differential Mortality

Studies on the ratio of mortality in different subgroups of a population, classified according to certain criteria, such as sex, social class, occupation, and marital status. Also includes studies on excess mortality and comparative mortality.

63:20096 Almgren, Gunnar; Guest, Avery; Immerwahr, George; Spittel, Michael. Joblessness, family disruption, and violent death in Chicago 1970-1990. Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper, No. 97-1, May 1996. 23, [15] pp. University of Washington, Seattle Population Research Center: Seattle, Washington; Battelle Seattle Research Center: Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"Utilizing 1970 and 1990 census data and vital records for 75 Chicago community areas, this paper examines the relationships between joblessness, family disruption, and all three forms of violent death across the black and non-black community area populations of Chicago at two distinct time points corresponding to William Julius Wilson's theory of the evolvement of urban underclass communities....The findings suggest that both homicide rates and accidental death rates are similarly predicted by high rates of joblessness and family disruption, and that these relationships have strengthened across both black and non-black communities over time. These relationships also vary by race and gender, but are generally stronger for males."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1996 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: G. Almgren, University of Washington, School of Social Work, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20097 Courbage, Youssef; Khlat, Myriam. Mortality and causes of death of Moroccans in France, 1979-91. Population: An English Selection, Vol. 8, 1996. 59-94 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
"The results of a study by Michèle Tribalat showed that the death rates of immigrants in France were surprisingly low: they were not only better than the national average, but far better than the rates specific to the socio-occupational categories the immigrants belonged to. Was this due to observation errors, to selection of the fittest applicants for immigration, or to the fact that immigrants adapted positively, that is, by taking the best (health services, living conditions...) and leaving the worst (overnutrition, road accidents...)? [The authors] investigate these questions here with respect to Moroccans living in France, first by a general analysis, then by a study of the causes of death. They confirm the surprisingly low mortality of Moroccan immigrants. But incidentally, in the case of mobility within France, adult mortality was shown to be roughly 11% lower among men who had changed regions at least once than among those who had not."
For the original French version, see 61:20163.
Correspondence: Y. Courbage, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20098 Davey Smith, George; Hart, Carole; Blane, David; Gillis, Charles; Hawthorne, Victor. Lifetime socioeconomic position and mortality: prospective observational study. British Medical Journal, Vol. 314, No. 7080, Feb 22, 1997. 547-52 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The influence of socioeconomic status on risk factors for cardiovascular disease, morbidity, and mortality from various causes is analyzed using data originally collected between 1970 and 1973 on 5,766 Scottish men aged 35-64 who were followed up over a 21-year period. The results show significant differences by socioeconomic status in mortality from various causes. They also indicate that the relative importance of these causes of death varies over the course of an individual's lifetime. The authors conclude that "studies with data on socioeconomic circumstances at only one stage of life are inadequate for fully elucidating the contribution of socioeconomic factors to health and mortality risk."
Correspondence: G. Davey Smith, University of Bristol, Department of Social Medicine, Bristol BS8 2PR, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

63:20099 Giraldes, Maria do R.; Ribeiro, Ana C. C. Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Portugal in the period 1980/1982-1990/1992. [Desigualdades sócio-económicas na mortalidade em Portugal no período 1980/1982-1990/1992.] Revista Portuguesa de Saúde Pública, Vol. 13, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1995. 5-28 pp. Lisbon, Portugal. In Por. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
Using data from the censuses of 1981 and 1991, this article provides an analysis of mortality differentials by occupation in Portugal. The focus is on differences in the causes of death by sex for seven categories of occupations ranging from the professional and technical level to industrial workers. The study is part of a wider study on mortality differences in developed countries that is being carried out under the auspices of the European Union.
Correspondence: M. do R. Giraldes, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Avenida Padre Cruz, 1699 Lisbon Codex, Portugal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20100 Horiuchi, Shiro. Postmenopausal acceleration of age-related mortality increase. Journal of Gerontology: Biological Sciences, Vol. 52, No. 1, 1997. 78-92 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The force of natural selection to eliminate deleterious genes is attenuated with advancing age, allowing senescence to evolve. This suggests that a distinctly marked end of the reproduction period is likely to be followed by an acceleration of senescence. It is thus expected that menopause should trigger an acceleration of age-related mortality increase in human females. Such an abrupt initiation of mortality acceleration is not predicted for human males at the same ages, whose fecundity declines more gradually. Life table aging rate patterns for selected industrialized countries generally support this hypothesis. A cause-of-death decomposition analysis indicates that the sex differential in mortality acceleration is mainly due to cardiovascular diseases, which is consistent with the prevalent view that postmenopausal changes in the sex hormone status may affect lipoprotein metabolism, and in turn, raise the risk of arteriosclerosis."
Correspondence: S. Horiuchi, Rockefeller University, 1230 York Avenue, Box 20, New York, NY 10021-6399. E-mail: horiush@rockvax.rockefeller.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20101 Kampert, James B.; Blair, Steven N.; Barlow, Carolyn E.; Kohl, Harold W. Physical activity, physical fitness, and all-cause and cancer mortality: a prospective study of men and women. Annals of Epidemiology, Vol. 6, No. 5, Sep 1996. 452-7 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"We studied physical fitness and physical activity in relation to all-cause and cancer mortality in a cohort of 7,080 women and 25,341 men examined at the Cooper Clinic in Dallas, Texas, during 1970 to 1989....After adjustment for baseline differences in age, examination year, cigarette habit, chronic illnesses, and electrocardiogram abnormalities, we found a strong inverse association between risk of all-cause mortality and level of physical fitness in both men and women....Among women...self-reported physical activity was not significantly related to risk of death from all causes. The risk of mortality from cancer declined sharply across increasing levels of fitness among men...whereas among women the gradient was suggestive but not significant....Physically active men also were at lower risk of death from cancer than were sedentary men...but among women physical activity was unrelated to cancer mortality."
Correspondence: S. N. Blair, Cooper Institute for Aerobics Research, 12330 Preston Road, Dallas, TX 75230. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20102 Lützeler, Ralph. Regional differences in mortality in Japan--mortality as an indicator of regional living conditions. [Räumliche Unterschiede der Sterblichkeit in Japan--Sterblichkeit als Indikator regionaler Lebensbedingungen.] Bonner Geographische Abhandlungen, No. 89, ISBN 3-427-76391-9. 1994. 247 pp. Ferd. Dümmlers Verlag: Bonn, Germany. In Ger.
Using Japanese data, this study examines the hypothesis that spatial patterns of death rates may be used as indicators of regional quality-of-life levels. After a historical overview of Japanese mortality trends, current mortality variables are analyzed for their spatial variability. The next chapter considers possible distorting effects on mortality statistics, such as migration and variations in cause-of-death diagnoses, and discusses environmental and lifestyle factors suspected of being related to regional mortality differences. Several multivariate methods are then employed to study possible relationships between mortality and environmental factors. The study finds that elevated infant and child mortality is related to certain conditions typical for rural areas; high mortality among those aged 35-64 points to problematic socioeconomic conditions; and the mortality of the aged is correlated significantly with nutritional factors, winter temperatures, and the quality of the preventive health care system. Finally, the author identifies particular regions in Japan that display distinctive interactions between mortality and environmental conditions.
Correspondence: Ferd. Dümmlers Verlag, 53113 Bonn, Germany. Location: University of Michigan Library, Ann Arbor, MI.

63:20103 McElduff, Patrick; Dobson, Annette J. How much alcohol and how often? Population based case-control study of alcohol consumption and risk of a major coronary event. British Medical Journal, Vol. 314, No. 7088, Apr 19, 1997. 1,159-64 pp. London, England. In Eng.
Alcohol consumption patterns are compared between 11,511 cases of acute myocardial infarction or coronary death and 6,077 controls in a population of men and women aged 35-69 living in the Lower Hunter region of New South Wales, Australia, in the period 1983-1994. The authors conclude that "frequency and quantity of alcohol consumption are important in assessing the risk of a major coronary event. Risk is lowest among men who report one to four drinks daily on five or six days a week and among women who report one or two drinks daily on five or six days a week."
Correspondence: P. McElduff, University of Newcastle, Department of Statistics, Newcastle, NSW 2308, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

63:20104 Murphy, Mike. Marital status and mortality: an epidemiological viewpoint. Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 21, No. 3, 1996. 303-17 pp. Munich, Germany. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"This study examined the available marital status patterns of all-cause mortality in England, Wales and Scotland throughout the twentieth century. It also assessed bias in the mortality rates by considering the consistency of marital status information available from samples of records of people who died shortly after they were enumerated in a census. It is concluded that bias is present, but consistent over time and that the married still have lower death rates than the others after adjustment for this. Marriage also appears to be associated with greater protection for men than women. However there are difficulties with making more detailed comparisons by type of marital status because of bias. The implications of these true differences in mortality by legal marital status are discussed given the social and demographic changes taking place."
Correspondence: M. Murphy, University of Oxford, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Unit of Health Care Epidemiology, Gibson Building, Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford OX2 6HE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20105 Notkola, Veijo; Pajunen, Airi; Leino-Arjas, Päivi. Occupational mortality by cause in Finland 1971-91 and occupational mobility. Terveys/Hälsa/Health, No. 1997:1, ISBN 951-727-318-5. 1997. 146 pp. Tilastokeskus: Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
The aim of this study is to describe mortality differences by occupational categories in Finland. The role of occupational mobility is also examined. The study is based on the 1970-1985 Finnish census records, which were linked with all death certificates during the period 1971-1991. The data include information about 6 million people permanently living in Finland. The results show that mortality is highest among manual workers, both men and women. The more detailed the occupational and cause-of-death classification, the greater the mortality differences by occupation. Mortality differences by occupation were very similar in the 1980s to those of 1971-1991. Men entering high-mortality occupations from outside the labor force have markedly higher-than-average mortality. The results for women are not quite so clear-cut. In addition, mortality of the retired is in general higher than average if the retired persons are from a high-mortality occupation.
Correspondence: Tilastokeskus, P.O. Box 3B, 00022 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20106 Shaper, A. Gerald; Wannamethee, S. Goya; Walker, Mary. Body weight: implications for the prevention of coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes mellitus in a cohort study of middle aged men. British Medical Journal, Vol. 314, No. 7090, May 3, 1997. 1,311-7 pp. London, England. In Eng.
Data from the British Regional Heart Study involving 7,735 men aged 40-59 are used to determine the body mass index associated with the lowest morbidity and mortality. The average follow-up was 14.8 years. The results suggest that a healthy body mass index in these middle-aged men is about 22.
Correspondence: A. G. Shaper, Royal Free Hospital School of Medicine, Department of Primary Care and Population Sciences, London NW3 2PF, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

63:20107 Shrestha, Laura B. Racial differences in life expectancy among elderly African Americans and whites: the surprising truth about comparisons. Garland Studies on the Elderly in America, ISBN 0-8153-2764-1. LC 96-30016. 1997. xiii, 170 pp. Garland Publishing: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
"The book evaluates the consistency of reported data between the two major sources of data for calculation of mortality statistics in the United States: censuses and death registration. The focus is on the older population (aged 60 and above), where mortality trends have the greatest impact on social programs and where data quality is most problematic. Using demographic techniques, age-specific inconsistencies between the sources are evaluated for both whites and African-Americans for two periods: 1970-1980 and 1980-1990." Particular attention is given to the phenomenon of crossover mortality. The author discusses whether the lower mortality rate observed among elderly blacks compared to whites could be a reflection of biological superiority or whether it is an artifact of poor data quality. The results suggest that the ages of African Americans are considerably overstated in censuses, and that there are serious consequences for research based on official population and vital registration data at advanced ages.
Correspondence: Garland Publishing, 717 Fifth Avenue, Suite 2500, New York, NY 10022. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20108 Sudhakaran, M. V.; Vijayavalli, B. Genetic effects of inbreeding on mortality among the Pulayas of Alappuzha, Kerala. Demography India, Vol. 25, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1996. 199-204 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"Despite being a vast conglomerate of various endogamous castes, communities and tribes providing excellent material for consanguinity studies in India, reports on such investigation in India are fragmentary and only a few reports on genetic load are available in literature....The data on the effects of inbreeding on mortality among the Pulayas of Alappuzha district of Kerala [are] used here for estimating the genetic load in the group."
Correspondence: M. V. Sudhakaran, University of Kerala, Department of Botany, Kariavattom, Thiruvananthapuram 695 581, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20109 Wei, Ming; Valdez, Rodolfo A.; Mitchell, Braxton D.; Haffner, Steven M.; Stern, Michael P.; Hazuda, Helen P. Migration status, socioeconomic status, and mortality rates in Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites: the San Antonio Heart Study. Annals of Epidemiology, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1996. 307-13 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The present study compared all-cause mortality of non-Hispanic whites with that of United States-born and foreign-born (i.e., born in Mexico) Mexican Americans. Subjects were 3,735 residents of San Antonio, TX, who were followed-up for 7-8 years. The sex-age adjusted death rates per 1,000 person-years were higher for United States-born Mexican Americans (5.7) than for non-Hispanic whites (3.8) or for foreign-born Mexican Americans (3.6). Foreign-born Mexican Americans had the lowest socioeconomic status (SES), and non-Hispanic whites had the highest SES....[The] data suggest that lower SES is strongly associated with increased mortality. After adjustment for SES, mortality rates were similar for United States-born Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites. Foreign-born Mexican Americans had the lowest mortality rates of the three groups."
Correspondence: M. Wei, University of Texas Health Science Center, Department of Medicine, Division of Clinical Epidemiology, San Antonio, TX 78284-7873. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20110 Wild, Sarah; McKeigue, Paul. Cross sectional analysis of mortality by country of birth in England and Wales, 1970-92. British Medical Journal, Vol. 314, No. 7082, Mar 8, 1997. 705-10 pp. London, England. In Eng.
Mortality differences in England and Wales among selected groups of immigrants, including migrants from Scotland and Ireland, are analyzed using data from the censuses of 1971 and 1991. The results suggest that "widening differences in mortality ratios for migrants compared with the general population were not simply due to socioeconomic inequalities. The low mortality from all causes for Caribbean immigrants could largely be attributed to low mortality from ischaemic heart disease, which is unexplained. The excess mortality from cerebrovascular and hypertensive diseases in migrants from both west Africa and the Caribbean suggests that genetic factors underlie the susceptibility to hypertension in people of black African descent."
Correspondence: S. Wild, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Epidemiology Unit, London WC1E 7HT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

63:20111 Wilson, Margo; Daly, Martin. Life expectancy, economic inequality, homicide, and reproductive timing in Chicago neighbourhoods. British Medical Journal, Vol. 314, No. 7089, Apr 26, 1997. 1,271-4 pp. London, England. In Eng.
Vital statistics data for 77 neighborhoods in Chicago, Illinois, are used to compare life expectancies at birth by sex. "In comparisons among Chicago neighbourhoods, homicide rates in 1988-93 varied more than 100-fold, while male life expectancy at birth ranged from 54 to 77 years, even with effects of homicide mortality removed. This `cause deleted' life expectancy was highly correlated with homicide rates; a measure of economic inequality added significant additional prediction, whereas median household income did not. Deaths from internal causes (diseases) show similar age patterns, despite different absolute levels, in the best and worst neighbourhoods, whereas deaths from external causes (homicide, accident, suicide) do not. As life expectancy declines across neighbourhoods, women reproduce earlier; by age 30, however, neighbourhood no longer affects age specific fertility. These results support the hypothesis that life expectancy itself may be a psychologically salient determinant of risk taking and the timing of life transitions."
Correspondence: M. Wilson, McMaster University, Department of Psychology, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4K1, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

63:20112 Yuan, Jian-Min; Ross, Ronald K.; Gao, Yu-Tang; Henderson, Brian E.; Yu, Mimi C. Follow up study of moderate alcohol intake and mortality among middle aged men in Shanghai, China. British Medical Journal, Vol. 314, No. 7073, Jan 4, 1997. 18-23 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The risks of death associated with various patterns of alcohol intake in China are examined using data on 18,244 men aged 45-64 enrolled in a prospective study on diet and cancer carried out in Shanghai from 1986 to 1989. The results show that "regular consumption of small amounts of alcohol is associated with lower overall mortality including death from ischaemic heart disease in middle aged Chinese men. The type of alcoholic drink does not affect this association."
Correspondence: J.-M. Yuan, University of Southern California, School of Medicine, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Los Angeles, CA 90033. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

E.7. Mortality by Cause

Studies of demographic relevance on causes of death. Studies of morbidity and of public health measures are included only if they relate specifically to mortality. Also included are maternal mortality and comparisons of causes.

63:20113 AbouZahr, Carla; Wardlaw, Tessa; Stanton, Cynthia; Hill, Kenneth. Maternal mortality. World Health Statistics Quarterly/Rapport Trimestriel de Statistiques Sanitaires Mondiales, Vol. 49, No. 2, 1996. 77-87 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"A new approach to measuring maternal mortality indicates that there are some 585,000 maternal deaths [per year], 99% of them in developing countries. This is around 80,000 deaths more than earlier estimates have suggested and indicates a substantial underestimation of maternal mortality in the past. There is a greater disparity in levels of maternal mortality between industrialized and developing countries than in any other public health indicator. While significant progress has been made in reducing infant mortality, the same is not true for maternal mortality. Although the actions needed to reduce maternal mortality have long been known, 1 woman in 50 is still dying as a result of pregnancy-related complications and the figure rises to 1 in 10 in many parts of Africa. By contrast, the figure for developed countries can be as low as 1 in 8,000."
Correspondence: C. AbouZahr, World Health Organization, Maternal Health and Safe Motherhood Programme, Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20114 Abrahamowicz, Michal; du Berger, Roxane; Grover, Steven A. Flexible modeling of the effects of serum cholesterol on coronary heart disease mortality. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 145, No. 8, Apr 15, 1997. 714-29 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"In this study, we use a nonparametric regression approach to reassess the effects of selected continuous risk factors on the risk of CHD mortality, with particular focus on two lipid measures: TC [total serum cholesterol] and the ratio of TC to high density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC/HDL cholesterol)." The data are from the Lipid Research Clinics Program Prevalence and Follow-up Studies, involving 2,512 men in North America for whom data was originally collected between 1972 and 1976, and who did not take lipid-lowering medication. "Validation studies confirmed that, among new observations arising from the same population, generalized additive model estimates predicted outcomes better than the parametric estimates. Nonlinear effects of both lipid measures were robust and may be clinically important. The authors conclude that the linearity assumption inherent in parametric models may result in biased estimates of the effects of total serum cholesterol on coronary heart disease mortality and recommend that their findings be verified in a non parametric analysis of data from another large prospective study."
Correspondence: M. Abrahamowicz, Montreal General Hospital, Division of Clinical Epidemiology, 1650 Cedar Avenue, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1A4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

63:20115 Amos, Amanda. Women and smoking: a global issue. World Health Statistics Quarterly/Rapport Trimestriel de Statistiques Sanitaires Mondiales, Vol. 49, No. 2, 1996. 127-33 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Smoking kills over half a million women each year and is the single most important preventable cause of female premature death in several developed countries. However in many countries smoking is still regarded as a mainly male problem. This paper explores the reasons why more attention needs to be paid to smoking and women, even in countries with low levels of female smoking. Included is an overview of the patterns and trends of smoking among women, the factors which influence smoking uptake and cessation in women, and some of the key challenges facing developed and developing countries. It is argued that to be successful in addressing the tobacco epidemic among women, tobacco control policies need to encompass both gender-specific and gender-sensitive approaches."
Correspondence: A. Amos, University of Edinburgh, Medical School, Department of Public Health Sciences, Edinburgh EH8 9YL, Scotland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20116 Bacchetti, Peter. Incidence of HIV-related deaths in the United States: seasonality and trend. Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 16, No. 6, Mar 30, 1997. 645-52 pp. Chichester, England. In Eng.
"This paper examines possible short-term patterns and distortions in the incidence of deaths with AIDS in the United States, using methods previously applied to incidence of AIDS diagnoses. The variation in death counts by calendar month models fairly well as a seasonal pattern consistent with seasonal variation in deaths from all causes. In addition, three apparently non-biological short-term effects in AIDS incidence--a workday effect, a jump between December and January, and a spike in June--are not apparent in death incidence, and analysis of death counts in subgroups does not show any strong evidence for non-biological influences on time of death. Deseasonalized death incidence shows a steady increase over time. Because death incidence is not subject to definition change and is apparently less susceptible to other non-biological influences than AIDS incidence, it may have value for monitoring the HIV epidemic."
Correspondence: P. Bacchetti, University of California, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Box 0840, San Francisco, CA 94143-0840. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20117 Beaglehole, Robert; Stewart, Alistair W.; Jackson, Rod; Dobson, Annette J.; McElduff, Patrick; D'Este, Kate; Heller, Richard F.; Jamrozik, Konrad D.; Hobbs, Michael S.; Parsons, Richard; Broadhurst, Robyn. Declining rates of coronary heart disease in New Zealand and Australia, 1983-1993. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 145, No. 8, Apr 15, 1997. 707-13 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
This study presents the results of 10 years of monitoring trends in the rates of major coronary events and deaths from coronary disease in Auckland, New Zealand, and in Newcastle and Perth, Australia. "For nonfatal definite myocardial infarction, there were statistically significant declines in rates in all centers in both men and women, with estimated average changes between 2.5% and 3.7% per year during the period 1984-1993. Rates of all coronary deaths also declined significantly in all three populations for both men and women. In absolute terms, there was, in general, a greater reduction in prehospital deaths than in deaths after hospitalization. Although 28-day case fatality remains high at between 35% and 50%, in the Australian centers it declined significantly by between 1.0% and 2.9% per year, and in Auckland there was also a small decline."
Correspondence: R. Beaglehole, University of Auckland, Department of Community Health, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

63:20118 Bonneux, Luc; Looman, Caspar W. N.; Barendregt, Jan J.; Van der Maas, Paul J. Regression analysis of recent changes in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the Netherlands. British Medical Journal, Vol. 314, No. 7083, Mar 15, 1997. 789-92 pp. London, England. In Eng.
Official data for the period 1969-1993 are used to examine whether recent declines in mortality from coronary heart disease in the Netherlands are associated with increased mortality from other cardiovascular diseases. The results suggest that "improved management of coronary heart disease seems to have reduced mortality, but some of the gains are lost to deaths from stroke and other cardiovascular diseases. The increasing numbers of patients with coronary heart disease who survive will increase demands on health services for long term care."
Correspondence: L. Bonneux, Erasmus University, Department of Public Health, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. E-mail: bonneux@mgz.fgg.eur.nl. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

63:20119 Cole, Philip; Rodu, Brad. Declining cancer mortality in the United States. Cancer, Vol. 78, No. 10, Nov 15, 1996. 2,045-8 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"For as long as such statistics have been kept in the United States, the overall age-adjusted cancer mortality rate had been increasing. However, from 1990 to 1995, there occurred for the first time a continuous and sustainable decline in cancer mortality in the U.S. This article describes the decline and suggests major reasons for it." Results indicate that "both cancer prevention activities, especially those directed against smoking, and improvements in medical care have produced an appreciable reduction in cancer mortality in the United States."
Correspondence: P. Cole, 221 TH, University Station, Birmingham, AL 35294-0008. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20120 Desjardins, Bertrand. Demographic aspects of the 1702-1703 smallpox epidemic in the St-Lawrence valley. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 23, No. 1, 1996. 49-67 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Data compiled by the Programme de recherche en démographie historique of the Université de Montréal were used to number and characterize deaths within the population of European extraction from the 1702-1703 smallpox epidemic in the St-Lawrence valley. Between 6% and 6.5% of the settled population in the late fall of 1702 was eliminated by the disease; adding the death of an extra 25% of newborns, the epidemic's toll reached some 1,300. A significant proportion of adults died among the Canadian-born population, surpassing 10% for women of childbearing ages in particular. This proves that contrary to what most observers have written, smallpox was not prevalent among the non-native population during the XVIIth century."
Correspondence: B. Desjardins, Université de Montréal, Département de Démographie, C.P. 6128, Succursale Centre-Ville, Montreal, Quebec H3C 317, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20121 Di Paola, Maurizio; Mastrantonio, Marina; Carboni, Marcello; Belli, Stefano; Grignoli, Mario; Comba, Pietro; Nesti, Massimo. Mortality from malignant pleural neoplasms in Italy in the years 1988 to 1992. [La mortalità per tumore maligno della pleura in Italia negli anni 1988-1992.] Rapporti ISTISAN, No. 96/40, 1996. 30 pp. Istituto Superiore di Sanità [ISTISAN]: Rome, Italy. In Ita. with sum. in Eng.
Mortality from malignant pleural neoplasms in Italy is analyzed using official data. The results show higher mortality from this cause in areas with shipyards, areas of asbestos-cement industrial production, and areas of general major industrial production. The relationship between mortality from this cause and exposure to asbestos is identified as a topic for future study.
Correspondence: Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Viale Regina Elena 299, 00161 Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20122 Garenne, Michel; Sauerborn, Rainer; Nougtara, Adrien; Borchert, Matthias; Benzler, Justus; Diesfeld, Jochen. Direct and indirect estimates of maternal mortality in rural Burkina Faso. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 28, No. 1, Mar 1997. 54-61 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A retrospective study of maternal mortality was conducted in Nouna, a rural area of Burkina Faso in 1992. Strong evidence was found of a major mortality decline among children and young adults over the 50 years preceding the study: the estimated life expectancy of 36 years in around 1945 rose to 58 years in 1991. Direct and indirect (using the sisterhood method) estimates of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) were compared. Overall, the direct estimate of the MMR (389 deaths per 100,000 live births) for women aged 15 and older was slightly lower than the indirect estimate (428 deaths per 100,000). Taking into account the biases involved in the use of information obtained from sisters, the direct estimates indicated a marked decline in maternal mortality over time from 569 deaths per 100,000 around 1941 to 305 deaths around 1987. The validity of both data and approach, as well as the discrepancies between the direct and indirect methods, are discussed."
Correspondence: M. Garenne, Centre Français sur la Population et le Développement, 15 rue de l'Ecole de Médecine, 75270 Paris Cedex 06, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20123 Horiuchi, Shiro; Wilmoth, John R. Age patterns of the life table aging rate for major causes of death in Japan, 1951-1990. Journal of Gerontology: Biological Sciences, Vol. 52, No. 1, 1997. 67-77 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"It has been widely supposed that human mortality from all causes increases with age nearly exponentially (at a constant rate) through adult ages except for very old ages, and that this exponential increase also holds fairly well for most major causes of death (CODs). However, the present analysis of death registration data from Japan, 1951-1990, reveals that the rate of age-related relative increase in mortality (the life table aging rate) changes with age significantly and systematically for many CODs. Above age 75, the mortality increase decelerates for most CODs; under age 75, it remains at a relatively stable pace for ischemic heart disease, decelerates for most major cancers, and accelerates for diseases related to a declining ability to maintain homeostasis (pneumonia, bronchitis, influenza, gastroenteritis, and heart failure). These results seem to suggest that significantly different types of senescent processes may underlie atherogenesis, oncogenesis, and immunosenescence."
Correspondence: S. Horiuchi, Rockefeller University, 1230 York Avenue, Box 20, New York, NY 10021-6399. E-mail: horiush@rockvax.rockefeller.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20124 Ibison, Judith M.; Swerdlow, Anthony J.; Head, Jenny A.; Marmot, Michael. Maternal mortality in England and Wales 1970-1985: an analysis by country of birth. British Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Vol. 103, No. 10, Oct 1996. 973-80 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors assess "the risk of maternal mortality in immigrants to England and Wales [using] death registrations, 1970-1985, by country of birth....Women born in West Africa...and the Caribbean...were at very elevated risk of maternal death and of the main causes of death. Women from Southern Asia...and `Europe and the USSR'...were at moderate risk. Adjustment for year of death increased the estimates of risk and women born in the `Rest of the World' and Scotland were at significantly elevated risk....An increased incidence of obstetric conditions in immigrant groups may account for the elevated risk but it is also possible that differences in care may account for some of the additional risk. The pattern of increased risk does not appear to be explicable by the parity or social class distribution of immigrants as far as data are available on these."
Correspondence: J. M. Ibison, Royal London School of Medicine, St. Bartholomew's, Charterhouse Square, London EC1M 6BQ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20125 Lumey, L. H.; Van Poppel, F. W. A. The Dutch famine of 1944-1945: mortality and morbidity in past and present generations. [De hongerwinter in West-Nederland, 1944-1945: ziekte en sterfte toen en daarna.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 1, 1995. 27-48 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"During the last months of the Second World War the Western part of the Netherlands was affected by an acute famine, known as the `Hunger Winter'....By making use of unpublished data from the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics estimates could be made of the changes in mortality by cause of death and age for both sexes. Mortality due to hunger was most common in the very young and the very old whereas the effects in males were more pronounced than in females. Hunger was a contributing factor to the increased mortality due to infectious diseases and diseases of the digestive system....Several studies on reproductive outcomes in the subsequent generation are also discussed."
Correspondence: L. H. Lumey, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Academisch Medisch Centrum, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20126 Manton, Kenneth G.; Stallard, Eric; Corder, Larry. Changes in the age dependence of mortality and disability: cohort and other determinants. Demography, Vol. 34, No. 1, Feb 1997. 135-57 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"It is important to understand the ebbs and flows of cause-specific mortality rates because general life expectancy trends are the product of interactions of multiple dynamic period and cohort factors. Consequently, we first review factors potentially affecting cohort health [in the United States] back to 1880 and explore how that history might affect the current and future cohort mortality risks of major chronic diseases. We then examine how those factors affect the age-specific linkage of disability and mortality in three sets of birth cohorts assessed using the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys and Medicare mortality data collected from 1982 to 1991. We find large changes in both mortality and disability in those cohorts, providing insights into what changes might have occurred and into what future changes might be expected."
Correspondence: K. G. Manton, Duke University, Center for Demographic Studies, Box 90088, Durham, NC 27708-0088. E-mail: kgm@cds.duke.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20127 McDermott, Jeanne M.; Slutsker, Laurence; Steketee, Richard W.; Wirima, Jack J.; Breman, Joel G.; Heymann, David L. Prospective assessment of mortality among a cohort of pregnant women in rural Malawi. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Suppl., Vol. 55, No. 1, 1996. 66-70 pp. Atlanta, Georgia. In Eng.
"The Magnochi Malaria Research Project (MMRP) was designed to examine the effect of malaria prevention during pregnancy on birth weight and infant outcomes [in Malawi]. The MMRP also provided an opportunity to examine prospectively mortality among women who were consecutively enrolled at their first antenatal clinic visit; followed through delivery; and they and their infant followed for at least one year after delivery. We report here the frequency and risk factors, including anemia, malaria and HIV infection, for maternal death (during pregnancy and 42 days postpartum) and nonmaternal death (from six weeks to one year postpartum) in this prospectively followed cohort." The authors find "that for rural Malawian women, pregnancy and delivery are risky periods, that the death of the mother adversely affects the survival of her children, and that HIV and anemia are important contributors to nonmaternal mortality in reproductive-age women."
Correspondence: J. M. McDermott, Mother Care, John Snow, 1616 N Fort Myer Drive, 11th Floor, Arlington, VA 22209. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20128 Murray, Christopher J. L.; Lopez, Alan D. Mortality by cause for eight regions of the world: Global Burden of Disease Study. Lancet, Vol. 349, No. 9061, May 3, 1997. 1,269-76 pp. London, England. In Eng.
This is the first of four planned papers reporting results from the Global Burden of Disease Study, a project attempting to provide comparable and accurate estimates of causes of death for the year 1990 for the world's major regions by age group and sex. The results indicate that "five of the ten leading killers are communicable, perinatal, and nutritional disorders largely affecting children. Non-communicable diseases are, however, already major public health challenges in all regions. Injuries, which account for 10% of global mortality, are often ignored as a major cause of death and may require innovative strategies to reduce their toll."
Correspondence: C. J. L. Murray, Harvard University, Center for Population and Development Studies, 9 Bow Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

63:20129 Shkolnikov, Vladimir; Meslé, France; Vallin, Jacques. Health crisis in Russia. I. Recent trends in life expectancy and causes of death from 1970 to 1993. Population: An English Selection, Vol. 8, 1996. 123-54 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
The authors analyze trends in life expectancy and causes of death in Russia from 1970 to 1993, with a focus on reasons for the recent declines in life expectancy. "Before discussing the trends themselves, we shall...look at the possible distortions that changes in data quality may have produced. However, even if it has been exaggerated to some degree, nobody contests the reality of the Soviet health crisis, and we shall attempt to derive some explanation by analysing the age and cause-of-death structures of mortality in Russia."
For the original French version, see 62:20195.
Correspondence: V. Shkolnikov, Centre of Demography and Human Ecology, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Ul. Krassikova 32, INP RAN, 117418 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20130 Shkolnikov, Vladimir; Meslé, France; Vallin, Jacques. Health crisis in Russia. II. Changes in causes of death: a comparison with France and England and Wales (1970 to 1993). Population: An English Selection, Vol. 8, 1996. 155-89 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
"Trends in Russian mortality appear all the more negative in comparison with the very favourable trends in most Western countries, especially during the last two decades. To highlight the most damaging causes, we compare Russian cause-specific mortality trends with those observed in France and England and Wales, two countries for which we have reconstructed continuous time series of deaths by cause....It was within the framework of...30 categories [of causes] that we calculated death rates by age group and standardized mortality rates by cause...."
For the original French version, see 62:20196.
Correspondence: V. Shkolnikov, Centre of Demography and Human Ecology, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Ul. Krassikova 32, INP RAN, 117418 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20131 United States. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC] (Atlanta, Georgia). Trends in ischemic heart disease deaths--United States, 1990-1994. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Vol. 46, No. 7, Feb 21, 1997. 146-50 pp. Atlanta, Georgia. In Eng.
"In 1994, a total of 481,458 persons died as a result of ischemic heart disease (IHD), which comprises two thirds of all heart disease--the leading cause of death in the United States. This report presents trends in IHD mortality in the United States for 1990-1994 (the latest year for which data are available) and compares these trends by race, sex, and state. These findings indicate IHD death rates decreased from 1990 through 1994; however, the rate of decline was slower than rates of previously observed declines."
Correspondence: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1997, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.