Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.
Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.
Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.
63:20044 Calitz, J. M. Population
of South Africa: updated estimates, scenarios and projections
1990-2020. Centre for Policy and Information Development Paper,
No. 109, ISBN 1-919692-05-3. Apr 1996. 102 pp. Development Bank of
Southern Africa, Centre for Policy and Information: Halfway House,
South Africa. In Eng.
The aim of this report "is to provide a
quantitative exposition of the size, structure and distribution of the
South African population, and it is directed at especially those
persons requiring detailed information on the demography of this
country....An in-depth analysis of demography is currently being made
with the intention to supplement this quantitative presentation with a
qualitative analysis."
Correspondence: Development
Bank of Southern Africa, Centre for Policy and Information,
Publications Division, P.O. Box 1234, Halfway House 1685, South Africa.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:20045 Monnier, Alain; de Guibert-Lantoine,
Catherine. The demographic situation of Europe and the
developed countries overseas. [La conjoncture
démographique: l'Europe et les pays développés
d'outre-mer.] Population, Vol. 51, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1996. 1,005-30 pp.
Paris, France. In Fre.
In this annual compilation, a selection of
comparative demographic data is presented for Europe and the developed
countries of the world. There are tables on population size, births,
and deaths; mortality and infant mortality; fertility; nuptiality;
births outside marriage; divorce; induced abortion; and life
expectancy.
For a previous report, see 62:20035. For an English
version of this report, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: A. Monnier, Institut National d'Etudes
Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14,
France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:20046 Monnier, Alain; de Guibert-Lantoine,
Catherine. The demographic situation of Europe and the
developed countries overseas: an annual report. Population: An
English Selection, Vol. 8, 1996. 235-50 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
Tabular data for Europe and selected developed countries are
presented on population size; birth, death, and infant mortality rates;
total fertility; total first marriage rate; extramarital births; total
divorce rate; legal abortion; and life expectancy at
birth.
Correspondence: A. Monnier, Institut National
d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex
14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:20047 USSR. Goskomstata SSSR.
Informatsionno-Izdatel'skii Tsentr (Moscow, Russia). The
urban population of the Soviet republics by district as at January 1,
1991. A statistical collection. [Chislennost' naseleniya soyuznykh
respublik po gorodskim poseleniyam i raionam na 1 yanvarya 1991 g.
Statisticheskii sbornik.] 1991. 449 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Data are presented on the rural and urban population of the USSR in
1991. The data are provided separately for each district of each
republic, and concern total population size
only.
Correspondence: Goskomstat Russia, Izmailovskoe
Shosse 44, 105679 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
63:20048 Webster, Christopher J.
Population and dwelling unit estimates from space. Third World
Planning Review, Vol. 18, No. 2, May 1996. 155-76 pp. Liverpool,
England. In Eng.
"To increase the utility of satellite imagery
as a source of cheap and current information for planning and managing
cities some problems have to be resolved....One answer is to adopt
interpretation methods that use the increased information in a more
detailed scene. This paper reports on attempts to measure the
morphological patterns in an urban satellite scene and to use these for
image interpretation. The interpretation task addressed is the
estimation of residential dwelling units from the patterns discernible
in high resolution satellite images of cities. The practical results
include dwelling estimates that can be aggregated to any geographical
unit of analysis, population estimates for cities and a dwelling
density surface that can be categorised into any number of residential
land-use classes."
Correspondence: C. J. Webster,
University of Wales, Department of City and Regional Planning, P.O. Box
906, Cardiff CF1 3YN, Wales. Location: Princeton University
Library (UES).
63:20049 Yao, Xinwu; Yin, Hua.
Basic data of China's population. Data User Service Series,
No. 1, ISBN 7-80079-215-3. 1994. [viii], 151 pp. China Population
Information and Research Center [CPIRC]: Beijing, China; China
Population Publishing House: Beijing, China. In Eng; Chi.
This book
contains a selection of official demographic data concerning China. The
data include basic demographic indicators for China and its provinces,
autonomous regions, and municipalities for each year from 1949 to 1992;
basic data from the censuses of 1953, 1964, 1982, and 1990; and other
data, such as population of the 50 largest cities, data for Taiwan and
Hong Kong, fertility, infant mortality, neonatal mortality, and life
expectancy. Floppy diskettes containing this information are available
from the Data User Service at the China Population Information and
Research Center.
Correspondence: China Population
Information and Research Center, P.O. Box 2444, 12 Dahuisi, Haidian,
Beijing 100081, China. Location: Princeton University Library
(Gest).
Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.
63:20050 Alho, Juha M. Scenarios,
uncertainty and conditional forecasts of the world population.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in
Society, Vol. 160, No. 1, 1997. 71-85 pp. London, England. In Eng.
This study is concerned with the methods available for the
forecasting of future trends in the world's population. Particular
attention is given to the problem of the uncertainties that these
forecasts include. "The purpose of this paper is to show how
subjective and data-based probabilistic assessments of error can be
combined, to give a user a realistic assessment of the uncertainty of
demographic forecasts, and to apply these concepts to forecasts of the
world population. Moreover, we shall show how conditional forecasts can
provide a simple conceptual framework in which to view scenarios. They
can be particularly useful in the evaluation of proposed policies.
Indeed, the so-called environmental impact assessments...that are now
mandatory in many countries for major construction projects typically
contain elements of conditional forecasting." The concepts
discussed are illustrated by comparing a scenario of future global
population growth prepared at the Institute of Applied Systems Analysis
with a UN population projection.
Correspondence: J. M.
Alho, University of Joensuu, Department of Statistics, P.O. Box 111,
80101 Joensuu, Finland. E-mail: juha.alho@joensuu.fi. Location:
Princeton University Library (PF).
63:20051 Argentina. Instituto Nacional de
Estadística y Censos [INDEC] (Buenos Aires, Argentina); United
Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE]
(Santiago, Chile). Population estimates and
projections--the whole country (revised version): 1950-2050.
[Estimaciones y proyecciones de población--total del país
(versión revisada): 1950-2050.] Serie Análisis
Demográfico, No. 5, 1995. 81 pp. Buenos Aires, Argentina. In
Spa.
Population estimates and projections are provided for
Argentina by age and sex for the period from 1950 to 2050, as well as
abbreviated life tables for the period from 1970 to
2050.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de
Estadística y Censos, Centro Estadístico de Servicios,
Avenida Presidente Julio A. Roca 609, 1067 Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:20052 Brondel, Daniel; Guillemot,
Danièle; Lincot, Liliane; Marioni, Pierre. The
working population should continue to rise for a decade. [La
population active devrait encore augmenter pendant une dizaine
d'années.] Economie et Statistique, No. 300, Oct 1996. 13-38,
123-7 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Spa.
Future
trends in the size and characteristics of the population of working age
in France are analyzed using data from official sources. "The
future working population is expected to comprise even fewer young
people and more women than today. This population should continue to
grow and will probably have risen by one and a half million people by
2006, essentially for demographic reasons. The trend should
subsequently reverse due to the first post-war generations reaching 60
years old. The working population should therefore start to decrease.
Yet the effect of the turnaround should remain modest up to
2015."
Correspondence: D. Brondel, Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Division Emploi, 18
boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:20053 Cliquet, R. L.; Kiernan, K.; Lutz,
W.; Mesle, F.; Prinz, C. The future of Europe's
population. A scenario approach. [De toekomst van Europa's
bevolking. Een scenariobenadering.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 2, 1993.
21-41 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"This
article...presents the main results of a multiple demographic scenario
analysis for the period 1990-2050, that has been performed for the
Council of Europe member states having a population of over one
million. Based on an overview of the recent trends in fertility,
migration, and mortality, and of their background, alternative
assumptions have been conceived about their possible future course. The
selected assumptions have been combined in 9 different scenarios in
view of performing a multivariate sensitivity analysis about their
effects on population size, population age structure, and ethnic
composition. Although the projections have been produced per country,
the results have only been analyzed for all the countries considered
together."
Correspondence: R. L. Cliquet, Centrum voor
Bevolkings- en Gezinsstudiën, Markiesstraat 1, 1000 Brussels,
Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:20054 Cliquet, Robert. The
societal challenges of future demographic scenarios for Europe.
[Maatschappelijke uitdagingen van demografische toekomstscenario's in
Europa.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 2, 1994. 109-42 pp. Brussels, Belgium.
In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"The aim [of this article] is to
discuss, on the basis of recent literature, a number of important
societal and policy implications of alternative directions [that]
European population development could take in the forthcoming decades.
More particularly the possible implications of changes in population
size and age structure are dealt with. With respect to the last issue,
the effects on labour supply, pensions and health and welfare care are
discussed."
Correspondence: R. Cliquet, Centrum voor
Bevolkings- en Gezinsstudiën, Markiesstraat 1, 1000 Brussels,
Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:20055 de Beer, J. Population
forecasts 1996: less population growth, increased aging.
[Bevolkingsprognose 1996: minder bevolkingsgroei, meer vergrijzing.]
Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 45, No. 1, Jan 1997. 6-12 pp.
Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"According to
the new national population forecasts for the Netherlands for the
period 1996-2050, the population size will continue to grow for another
three decades. It will reach a maximum of 17.2 million, lower than the
maximum according to the previous population forecasts....The reason
for this lower growth is that the assumption with respect to the future
level of fertility is revised downwards....Another adjustment of the
forecasts is the assumption that life expectancy at birth will continue
to increase until 2050, whereas in the previous forecasts life
expectancy was held constant after 2010....As a consequence of these
revised assumptions the percentage of elderly people will increase more
strongly."
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:20056 de Beer, J.; Roodenburg, H.
Three scenarios of population, households, education, and labor
supply for the next 25 years. [Drie scenario's van de bevolking,
huishoudens, opleiding en arbeidsaanbod voor de komende 25 jaar.]
Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 45, No. 2, Feb 1997. 6-10 pp.
Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"On the basis
of three scenarios describing alternative future economic and
socio-cultural developments [in Europe], three alternative developments
of population size, age structure, number of households, level of
educational attainment and labour supply are outlined for the period
1995-2020. In `Divided Europe' economic growth is low and unemployment
high....In `Global Competition' the market mechanism plays a decisive
role....In `European Coordination' the emphasis is on
coordination."
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:20057 de Gans, Henk A.
Population forecasting in the Netherlands between the two world
wars. [Bevolkingsprognoses voor Nederland in het interbellum.]
Bevolking en Gezin, No. 1, 1993. 65-92 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut.
with sum. in Eng.
"Starting from the year 1922 the method of
geometrical population growth for forecasting the total population of
The Netherlands became rapidly obsolete. The method of logistic
population growth never found its way [into] the methodology of
population forecasting. Holwerda, Oly (in 1924) and particularly
Wiebols (in l925) demonstrated that the role of the age/sex structure
for future population development [was] of paramount importance in the
process of population forecasting. In discussions on the methodology of
population forecasting, 't Hooft played an important part, although not
always a positive one. However, his [contributions to] the development
of forecasting methodology in The Netherlands have been
underestimated."
Correspondence: H. A. de Gans,
Universiteit van Amsterdam, Vakgroep Planologie en Demografie, Nieuwe
Prinsengracht 130, 1018 VZ Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:20058 McCracken, Kevin. New
South Wales' aged population in 2011. ACAP NSW Evaluation Unit
Report, Jan-Jun 1996. 10 pp. Macquarie University, Aged Care Assessment
Program NSW Evaluation Unit: Sydney, Australia. In Eng.
"The
aim of the paper is to outline a picture of likely demographic
developments in the State's elderly population by the end of the first
decade of [the] next century....The picture presented in the paper is
based on data from two main sources: (a) population projections from
the New South Wales Department of Planning (DoP) published in 1994 and
(b) 1991 Census and other population data from the Australian Bureau of
Statistics (ABS)....For the purposes of the paper `the elderly' are
defined as persons aged 65+."
Correspondence:
Macquarie University, School of Earth Sciences, Sydney, NSW 2109,
Australia. E-mail: earthsci@mq.edu.au. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
63:20059 Paraguay. Dirección General de
Estadística, Encuestas y Censos (Asunción,
Paraguay). Paraguay: population estimates and projections
by sex and age group, 1950-2050. [Paraguay: estimación y
proyección de la población total segun sexo y grupos de
edad, periodo 1950-2050.] Dec 1994. 80 pp. Asunción, Paraguay.
In Spa.
Official population estimates and projections are presented
for Paraguay for the period from 1990 to 2050. The data are provided by
sex and five-year age group. An analysis is included of the data
available from the census on which these estimates and projections are
based. Estimates of the school-age population are also
presented.
Correspondence: Dirección General de
Estadística, Encuestas y Censos, Secretaría
Técnica de Planificación, Miguel Torres 5313, Casilla
Correos 1118, Asunción, Paraguay. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
63:20060 Shen, Jianfa; Spence, Nigel.
Modelling regional population growth in China. Mathematical
Population Studies, Vol. 6, No. 3, 1997. 241-74 pp. Amsterdam,
Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper develops a forward
demographic rates-based multiregional population model on the basis of
a set of multiregional population accounts. Forward emigration rates
and immigration flows are adopted to describe the external migrations.
The model is used to make consistent multiregional population
projections of China at a provincial level....Three sets of
multiregional population projections of China at provincial level are
made for the period 1987-2087. It is found that the national population
trend is a combination of various regional population trends. Some
regions, such as Zhejiang, will reach their population peak as early as
the beginning of the next century while other regions, such as
Xinjiang, will face continuous population growth in the first half of
the next century."
Correspondence: J. Shen, Chinese
University of Hong Kong, Department of Geography, Shatin, New
Territories, Hong Kong. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:20061 United Kingdom. Office for National
Statistics (London, England). National population
projections, 1994-based. Series PP2, No. 20, ISBN 0-11-691690-7.
1996. vii, 49 pp. London, England. In Eng.
Population projections
are presented by sex and age for the United Kingdom, Great Britain, and
the constituent countries up to the year 2064. "The chapters of
the present report give a summary of the results of the 1994-based
national projections, together with a description of the methods
employed and of the assumptions on which the projections are based.
Detailed results of the projections for the United Kingdom, Great
Britain and each of the constituent countries are presented on
microfiche frames...."
Correspondence: Stationery
Office, Publications Centre, P.O. Box 276, London SW8 5DT, England.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:20062 United Nations. Centro
Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE] (Santiago,
Chile). Latin America: population projection,
1950-2050. [América Latina: proyecciones de
población, 1950-2050.] Boletín
Demográfico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 30, No. 59, Jan 1997. 203
pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
Population estimates and
projections are presented for Latin America as a whole and for 21
individual countries for the period 1950-2050. The first part has
estimates of some of the major demographic indicators, such as
population size, rates of growth, fertility, life expectancy, infant
mortality, mortality, migration, and dependency ratios. The second part
presents the estimates and projections by sex and five-year age group
at five-year intervals from 1950 to 2050.
Correspondence:
UN Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía, Edificio Naciones
Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:20063 Vallin, Jacques; Caselli, Graziella;
Reale, Alessandra. The future of humanity over the long
term: after the transition? [L'avenir de l'humanité
à plus long terme: après la transition?] In: Demografia:
analisi e sintesi. Cause e conseguenze dei processi demografici, edited
by Graziella Caselli. Apr 1996. 103-42 pp. Università degli
Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche: Rome,
Italy. In Fre.
Some long-term aspects of global fertility trends
are explored, starting from UN projections up to the year 2050. Three
alternative hypotheses are suggested and their implications discussed:
universal adoption of the one-child family norm; two-stage fertility
behavior, in which women achieve replacement fertility by having most
of their children at a young age, but have some more children between
ages 50 and 59; and a fertility regime which guarantees replacement,
but in which most children are born to women aged 45-54. Long-term
population trends are considered based on two alternative assumptions:
that life expectancy is limited to age 85, and that life expectancy
increases to 150 years.
Correspondence: J. Vallin, Institut
National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675
Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:20064 Van der Erf, R. F.; Gordijn, H. E.;
Liefbroer, A. C. Demographic forecasting in practice.
[Demografische prognoses in de praktijk.] Bevolking en Gezin, ISBN
90-70990-60-1. 1995. 112 pp. Centrum voor Bevolkings- en
Gezinsstudiën [CBGS]: Brussels, Belgium; Nederlands
Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut [NIDI]: The Hague,
Netherlands. In Dut.
This special issue contains eight papers
presented at a conference held at NIDI in the Netherlands, October 5,
1995. The subject was demographic forecasting, and in particular the
Dutch experience in this field. There are papers on the values and
assumptions that underlie most forecasts and their implications for
users; the human factor in making forecasts; the rise and fall of the
PRIMOS program of preparing forecasts; the use of projections at the
provincial level; municipal interest in provincial projections;
education forecasts; forecasts of jobs for the elderly; and population
projections and the actuary.
Correspondence: Nederlands
Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The
Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:20065 Vukolova, S.; Vasina, G.
Projections of the population of the Russian Federation up to the
year 2010. [Prognoz chislennosti naseleniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii
do 2010 goda.] Voprosy Statistiki, No. 1, 1997. 54-9 pp. Moscow,
Russia. In Rus.
Population projections are presented for Russia up
to the year 2010. Three alternative projections are considered,
according to optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic assumptions
concerning future trends in fertility and mortality. The projections
are given separately for the rural and urban population, and for the
different republics in the Russian Federation.
Correspondence:
S. Vukolova, Goskomstat Rossii, Izmailovskoe Shosse 44, 105679
Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:20066 Yousif, Hassan M.; Goujon, Anne;
Lutz, Wolfgang. Future population and education trends in
the countries of North Africa. IIASA Research Report, No.
RR-96-11, ISBN 3-7045-0129-8. Sep 1996. vii, 89 pp. International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In
Eng.
This report reviews the available data on recent demographic
trends in North Africa, and presents some projections of future
population trends in the region, with particular emphasis on how these
trends will affect education. It is noted that "the projection of
education is...particularly suitable for the demographic
cohort-component method because it is the past and present school
enrollment of the young cohorts that largely determines the future
educational composition of the population. It turns out that, due to
the large educational fertility differentials and the great
inter-cohort differences in education in the countries of North Africa,
an explicit inclusion of education in projections makes the population
projections more accurate."
Correspondence:
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361
Laxenburg, Austria. E-mail: maedel@iiasa.ac.at. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:20067 Zambia. Central Statistical Office
(Lusaka, Zambia). Census of population, housing and
agriculture, 1990: demographic projections, 1990-2015. [1995].
[287] pp. Lusaka, Zambia. In Eng.
Population projections based on
1990 census data are presented for Zambia for the period up to the year
2015. The methodology used in preparing the projections is
described.
Correspondence: Central Statistical Office, P.O.
Box 31908, Lusaka, Zambia. Location: Northwestern University
Library, Evanston, IL.
Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.
No citations in this issue.
