Volume 63 - Number 2 - Summer 1997

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

No citations in this issue.

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

63:20044 Calitz, J. M. Population of South Africa: updated estimates, scenarios and projections 1990-2020. Centre for Policy and Information Development Paper, No. 109, ISBN 1-919692-05-3. Apr 1996. 102 pp. Development Bank of Southern Africa, Centre for Policy and Information: Halfway House, South Africa. In Eng.
The aim of this report "is to provide a quantitative exposition of the size, structure and distribution of the South African population, and it is directed at especially those persons requiring detailed information on the demography of this country....An in-depth analysis of demography is currently being made with the intention to supplement this quantitative presentation with a qualitative analysis."
Correspondence: Development Bank of Southern Africa, Centre for Policy and Information, Publications Division, P.O. Box 1234, Halfway House 1685, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20045 Monnier, Alain; de Guibert-Lantoine, Catherine. The demographic situation of Europe and the developed countries overseas. [La conjoncture démographique: l'Europe et les pays développés d'outre-mer.] Population, Vol. 51, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1996. 1,005-30 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
In this annual compilation, a selection of comparative demographic data is presented for Europe and the developed countries of the world. There are tables on population size, births, and deaths; mortality and infant mortality; fertility; nuptiality; births outside marriage; divorce; induced abortion; and life expectancy.
For a previous report, see 62:20035. For an English version of this report, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: A. Monnier, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20046 Monnier, Alain; de Guibert-Lantoine, Catherine. The demographic situation of Europe and the developed countries overseas: an annual report. Population: An English Selection, Vol. 8, 1996. 235-50 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
Tabular data for Europe and selected developed countries are presented on population size; birth, death, and infant mortality rates; total fertility; total first marriage rate; extramarital births; total divorce rate; legal abortion; and life expectancy at birth.
Correspondence: A. Monnier, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20047 USSR. Goskomstata SSSR. Informatsionno-Izdatel'skii Tsentr (Moscow, Russia). The urban population of the Soviet republics by district as at January 1, 1991. A statistical collection. [Chislennost' naseleniya soyuznykh respublik po gorodskim poseleniyam i raionam na 1 yanvarya 1991 g. Statisticheskii sbornik.] 1991. 449 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Data are presented on the rural and urban population of the USSR in 1991. The data are provided separately for each district of each republic, and concern total population size only.
Correspondence: Goskomstat Russia, Izmailovskoe Shosse 44, 105679 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20048 Webster, Christopher J. Population and dwelling unit estimates from space. Third World Planning Review, Vol. 18, No. 2, May 1996. 155-76 pp. Liverpool, England. In Eng.
"To increase the utility of satellite imagery as a source of cheap and current information for planning and managing cities some problems have to be resolved....One answer is to adopt interpretation methods that use the increased information in a more detailed scene. This paper reports on attempts to measure the morphological patterns in an urban satellite scene and to use these for image interpretation. The interpretation task addressed is the estimation of residential dwelling units from the patterns discernible in high resolution satellite images of cities. The practical results include dwelling estimates that can be aggregated to any geographical unit of analysis, population estimates for cities and a dwelling density surface that can be categorised into any number of residential land-use classes."
Correspondence: C. J. Webster, University of Wales, Department of City and Regional Planning, P.O. Box 906, Cardiff CF1 3YN, Wales. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

63:20049 Yao, Xinwu; Yin, Hua. Basic data of China's population. Data User Service Series, No. 1, ISBN 7-80079-215-3. 1994. [viii], 151 pp. China Population Information and Research Center [CPIRC]: Beijing, China; China Population Publishing House: Beijing, China. In Eng; Chi.
This book contains a selection of official demographic data concerning China. The data include basic demographic indicators for China and its provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities for each year from 1949 to 1992; basic data from the censuses of 1953, 1964, 1982, and 1990; and other data, such as population of the 50 largest cities, data for Taiwan and Hong Kong, fertility, infant mortality, neonatal mortality, and life expectancy. Floppy diskettes containing this information are available from the Data User Service at the China Population Information and Research Center.
Correspondence: China Population Information and Research Center, P.O. Box 2444, 12 Dahuisi, Haidian, Beijing 100081, China. Location: Princeton University Library (Gest).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

63:20050 Alho, Juha M. Scenarios, uncertainty and conditional forecasts of the world population. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol. 160, No. 1, 1997. 71-85 pp. London, England. In Eng.
This study is concerned with the methods available for the forecasting of future trends in the world's population. Particular attention is given to the problem of the uncertainties that these forecasts include. "The purpose of this paper is to show how subjective and data-based probabilistic assessments of error can be combined, to give a user a realistic assessment of the uncertainty of demographic forecasts, and to apply these concepts to forecasts of the world population. Moreover, we shall show how conditional forecasts can provide a simple conceptual framework in which to view scenarios. They can be particularly useful in the evaluation of proposed policies. Indeed, the so-called environmental impact assessments...that are now mandatory in many countries for major construction projects typically contain elements of conditional forecasting." The concepts discussed are illustrated by comparing a scenario of future global population growth prepared at the Institute of Applied Systems Analysis with a UN population projection.
Correspondence: J. M. Alho, University of Joensuu, Department of Statistics, P.O. Box 111, 80101 Joensuu, Finland. E-mail: juha.alho@joensuu.fi. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

63:20051 Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos [INDEC] (Buenos Aires, Argentina); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Population estimates and projections--the whole country (revised version): 1950-2050. [Estimaciones y proyecciones de población--total del país (versión revisada): 1950-2050.] Serie Análisis Demográfico, No. 5, 1995. 81 pp. Buenos Aires, Argentina. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are provided for Argentina by age and sex for the period from 1950 to 2050, as well as abbreviated life tables for the period from 1970 to 2050.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, Centro Estadístico de Servicios, Avenida Presidente Julio A. Roca 609, 1067 Buenos Aires, Argentina. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20052 Brondel, Daniel; Guillemot, Danièle; Lincot, Liliane; Marioni, Pierre. The working population should continue to rise for a decade. [La population active devrait encore augmenter pendant une dizaine d'années.] Economie et Statistique, No. 300, Oct 1996. 13-38, 123-7 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Spa.
Future trends in the size and characteristics of the population of working age in France are analyzed using data from official sources. "The future working population is expected to comprise even fewer young people and more women than today. This population should continue to grow and will probably have risen by one and a half million people by 2006, essentially for demographic reasons. The trend should subsequently reverse due to the first post-war generations reaching 60 years old. The working population should therefore start to decrease. Yet the effect of the turnaround should remain modest up to 2015."
Correspondence: D. Brondel, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Division Emploi, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20053 Cliquet, R. L.; Kiernan, K.; Lutz, W.; Mesle, F.; Prinz, C. The future of Europe's population. A scenario approach. [De toekomst van Europa's bevolking. Een scenariobenadering.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 2, 1993. 21-41 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"This article...presents the main results of a multiple demographic scenario analysis for the period 1990-2050, that has been performed for the Council of Europe member states having a population of over one million. Based on an overview of the recent trends in fertility, migration, and mortality, and of their background, alternative assumptions have been conceived about their possible future course. The selected assumptions have been combined in 9 different scenarios in view of performing a multivariate sensitivity analysis about their effects on population size, population age structure, and ethnic composition. Although the projections have been produced per country, the results have only been analyzed for all the countries considered together."
Correspondence: R. L. Cliquet, Centrum voor Bevolkings- en Gezinsstudiën, Markiesstraat 1, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20054 Cliquet, Robert. The societal challenges of future demographic scenarios for Europe. [Maatschappelijke uitdagingen van demografische toekomstscenario's in Europa.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 2, 1994. 109-42 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"The aim [of this article] is to discuss, on the basis of recent literature, a number of important societal and policy implications of alternative directions [that] European population development could take in the forthcoming decades. More particularly the possible implications of changes in population size and age structure are dealt with. With respect to the last issue, the effects on labour supply, pensions and health and welfare care are discussed."
Correspondence: R. Cliquet, Centrum voor Bevolkings- en Gezinsstudiën, Markiesstraat 1, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20055 de Beer, J. Population forecasts 1996: less population growth, increased aging. [Bevolkingsprognose 1996: minder bevolkingsgroei, meer vergrijzing.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 45, No. 1, Jan 1997. 6-12 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"According to the new national population forecasts for the Netherlands for the period 1996-2050, the population size will continue to grow for another three decades. It will reach a maximum of 17.2 million, lower than the maximum according to the previous population forecasts....The reason for this lower growth is that the assumption with respect to the future level of fertility is revised downwards....Another adjustment of the forecasts is the assumption that life expectancy at birth will continue to increase until 2050, whereas in the previous forecasts life expectancy was held constant after 2010....As a consequence of these revised assumptions the percentage of elderly people will increase more strongly."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20056 de Beer, J.; Roodenburg, H. Three scenarios of population, households, education, and labor supply for the next 25 years. [Drie scenario's van de bevolking, huishoudens, opleiding en arbeidsaanbod voor de komende 25 jaar.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 45, No. 2, Feb 1997. 6-10 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"On the basis of three scenarios describing alternative future economic and socio-cultural developments [in Europe], three alternative developments of population size, age structure, number of households, level of educational attainment and labour supply are outlined for the period 1995-2020. In `Divided Europe' economic growth is low and unemployment high....In `Global Competition' the market mechanism plays a decisive role....In `European Coordination' the emphasis is on coordination."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20057 de Gans, Henk A. Population forecasting in the Netherlands between the two world wars. [Bevolkingsprognoses voor Nederland in het interbellum.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 1, 1993. 65-92 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"Starting from the year 1922 the method of geometrical population growth for forecasting the total population of The Netherlands became rapidly obsolete. The method of logistic population growth never found its way [into] the methodology of population forecasting. Holwerda, Oly (in 1924) and particularly Wiebols (in l925) demonstrated that the role of the age/sex structure for future population development [was] of paramount importance in the process of population forecasting. In discussions on the methodology of population forecasting, 't Hooft played an important part, although not always a positive one. However, his [contributions to] the development of forecasting methodology in The Netherlands have been underestimated."
Correspondence: H. A. de Gans, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Vakgroep Planologie en Demografie, Nieuwe Prinsengracht 130, 1018 VZ Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20058 McCracken, Kevin. New South Wales' aged population in 2011. ACAP NSW Evaluation Unit Report, Jan-Jun 1996. 10 pp. Macquarie University, Aged Care Assessment Program NSW Evaluation Unit: Sydney, Australia. In Eng.
"The aim of the paper is to outline a picture of likely demographic developments in the State's elderly population by the end of the first decade of [the] next century....The picture presented in the paper is based on data from two main sources: (a) population projections from the New South Wales Department of Planning (DoP) published in 1994 and (b) 1991 Census and other population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)....For the purposes of the paper `the elderly' are defined as persons aged 65+."
Correspondence: Macquarie University, School of Earth Sciences, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia. E-mail: earthsci@mq.edu.au. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20059 Paraguay. Dirección General de Estadística, Encuestas y Censos (Asunción, Paraguay). Paraguay: population estimates and projections by sex and age group, 1950-2050. [Paraguay: estimación y proyección de la población total segun sexo y grupos de edad, periodo 1950-2050.] Dec 1994. 80 pp. Asunción, Paraguay. In Spa.
Official population estimates and projections are presented for Paraguay for the period from 1990 to 2050. The data are provided by sex and five-year age group. An analysis is included of the data available from the census on which these estimates and projections are based. Estimates of the school-age population are also presented.
Correspondence: Dirección General de Estadística, Encuestas y Censos, Secretaría Técnica de Planificación, Miguel Torres 5313, Casilla Correos 1118, Asunción, Paraguay. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20060 Shen, Jianfa; Spence, Nigel. Modelling regional population growth in China. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 6, No. 3, 1997. 241-74 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper develops a forward demographic rates-based multiregional population model on the basis of a set of multiregional population accounts. Forward emigration rates and immigration flows are adopted to describe the external migrations. The model is used to make consistent multiregional population projections of China at a provincial level....Three sets of multiregional population projections of China at provincial level are made for the period 1987-2087. It is found that the national population trend is a combination of various regional population trends. Some regions, such as Zhejiang, will reach their population peak as early as the beginning of the next century while other regions, such as Xinjiang, will face continuous population growth in the first half of the next century."
Correspondence: J. Shen, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Geography, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20061 United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics (London, England). National population projections, 1994-based. Series PP2, No. 20, ISBN 0-11-691690-7. 1996. vii, 49 pp. London, England. In Eng.
Population projections are presented by sex and age for the United Kingdom, Great Britain, and the constituent countries up to the year 2064. "The chapters of the present report give a summary of the results of the 1994-based national projections, together with a description of the methods employed and of the assumptions on which the projections are based. Detailed results of the projections for the United Kingdom, Great Britain and each of the constituent countries are presented on microfiche frames...."
Correspondence: Stationery Office, Publications Centre, P.O. Box 276, London SW8 5DT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20062 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Latin America: population projection, 1950-2050. [América Latina: proyecciones de población, 1950-2050.] Boletín Demográfico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 30, No. 59, Jan 1997. 203 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Latin America as a whole and for 21 individual countries for the period 1950-2050. The first part has estimates of some of the major demographic indicators, such as population size, rates of growth, fertility, life expectancy, infant mortality, mortality, migration, and dependency ratios. The second part presents the estimates and projections by sex and five-year age group at five-year intervals from 1950 to 2050.
Correspondence: UN Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20063 Vallin, Jacques; Caselli, Graziella; Reale, Alessandra. The future of humanity over the long term: after the transition? [L'avenir de l'humanité à plus long terme: après la transition?] In: Demografia: analisi e sintesi. Cause e conseguenze dei processi demografici, edited by Graziella Caselli. Apr 1996. 103-42 pp. Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche: Rome, Italy. In Fre.
Some long-term aspects of global fertility trends are explored, starting from UN projections up to the year 2050. Three alternative hypotheses are suggested and their implications discussed: universal adoption of the one-child family norm; two-stage fertility behavior, in which women achieve replacement fertility by having most of their children at a young age, but have some more children between ages 50 and 59; and a fertility regime which guarantees replacement, but in which most children are born to women aged 45-54. Long-term population trends are considered based on two alternative assumptions: that life expectancy is limited to age 85, and that life expectancy increases to 150 years.
Correspondence: J. Vallin, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20064 Van der Erf, R. F.; Gordijn, H. E.; Liefbroer, A. C. Demographic forecasting in practice. [Demografische prognoses in de praktijk.] Bevolking en Gezin, ISBN 90-70990-60-1. 1995. 112 pp. Centrum voor Bevolkings- en Gezinsstudiën [CBGS]: Brussels, Belgium; Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut [NIDI]: The Hague, Netherlands. In Dut.
This special issue contains eight papers presented at a conference held at NIDI in the Netherlands, October 5, 1995. The subject was demographic forecasting, and in particular the Dutch experience in this field. There are papers on the values and assumptions that underlie most forecasts and their implications for users; the human factor in making forecasts; the rise and fall of the PRIMOS program of preparing forecasts; the use of projections at the provincial level; municipal interest in provincial projections; education forecasts; forecasts of jobs for the elderly; and population projections and the actuary.
Correspondence: Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20065 Vukolova, S.; Vasina, G. Projections of the population of the Russian Federation up to the year 2010. [Prognoz chislennosti naseleniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii do 2010 goda.] Voprosy Statistiki, No. 1, 1997. 54-9 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Population projections are presented for Russia up to the year 2010. Three alternative projections are considered, according to optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic assumptions concerning future trends in fertility and mortality. The projections are given separately for the rural and urban population, and for the different republics in the Russian Federation.
Correspondence: S. Vukolova, Goskomstat Rossii, Izmailovskoe Shosse 44, 105679 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20066 Yousif, Hassan M.; Goujon, Anne; Lutz, Wolfgang. Future population and education trends in the countries of North Africa. IIASA Research Report, No. RR-96-11, ISBN 3-7045-0129-8. Sep 1996. vii, 89 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
This report reviews the available data on recent demographic trends in North Africa, and presents some projections of future population trends in the region, with particular emphasis on how these trends will affect education. It is noted that "the projection of education is...particularly suitable for the demographic cohort-component method because it is the past and present school enrollment of the young cohorts that largely determines the future educational composition of the population. It turns out that, due to the large educational fertility differentials and the great inter-cohort differences in education in the countries of North Africa, an explicit inclusion of education in projections makes the population projections more accurate."
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. E-mail: maedel@iiasa.ac.at. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20067 Zambia. Central Statistical Office (Lusaka, Zambia). Census of population, housing and agriculture, 1990: demographic projections, 1990-2015. [1995]. [287] pp. Lusaka, Zambia. In Eng.
Population projections based on 1990 census data are presented for Zambia for the period up to the year 2015. The methodology used in preparing the projections is described.
Correspondence: Central Statistical Office, P.O. Box 31908, Lusaka, Zambia. Location: Northwestern University Library, Evanston, IL.

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

No citations in this issue.

Copyright © 1997, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.