Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.
63:10774 Adams, Melissa M.; Wilson, Hoyt G.;
Casto, Dale L.; Berg, Cynthia J.; McDermott, Jeanne M.; Gaudino, James
A.; McCarthy, Brian J. Constructing reproductive histories
by linking vital records. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol.
145, No. 4, Feb 15, 1997. 339-48 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
The authors describe efforts to construct reproductive histories
for U.S. women using vital statistics data on live births and fetal
deaths. "Compiling longitudinal data in the United States has been
difficult because of the absence of unique identifiers that facilitate
linking records. This report describes the methods used to link birth
and fetal death certificates filed in Georgia from 1980 through 1992
and gives an overview of the results." The results indicate that
"of the 1.4 million records, 38% did not link to another record.
From the remaining records, 369,686 chains of two or more events were
constructed....Of the chains, 69% included two events; 22% included
three events. Longer chains tended to have lower scores for probable
validity....Unfortunately, the small subset of records that were the
most difficult to link tended to overrepresent groups with the greatest
risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Researchers contemplating a similar
linkage can anticipate that, for the majority of records, linkage can
be accomplished with a relatively straightforward, deterministic
approach."
Correspondence: M. M. Adams, Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention, Public Health Service, National Center
for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of
Reproductive Health, MS K-23, 4770 Buford Highway NE, Atlanta, GA
30341-3724. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).
63:10775 Alho, Juha M. A note on
the use of anticipatory covariates in event history analysis.
Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 33, 1996. 328-32 pp.
Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"Anticipatory covariates are
regressors whose values become known only after the value of the
dependent variable has been ascertained. Hoem (1995) has given an
informal discussion concerning the possible pitfalls in the use of such
covariates in event history analysis. This paper complements Hoem's
findings by using simple linear regression as the framework. It turns
out that complex patterns of bias may be introduced by the use of
anticipatory covariates. In all cases it may not be possible to
guarantee that the magnitude of the bias remains small. Therefore,
extreme care is needed in interpreting results from studies that have
relied on anticipatory covariates."
Correspondence: J.
M. Alho, University of Joensuu, Department of Statistics, P.O. Box 111,
80101 Joensuu, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:10776 Bohara, Alok K.; Krieg, Randall
G. A zero-inflated Poisson model of migration
frequency. International Regional Science Review, Vol. 19, No. 3,
1996. 211-22 pp. Morgantown, West Virginia. In Eng.
"This
paper shows that the frequency of migration can be best modeled by a
zero-inflated Poisson process, because it takes into account the
overwhelming presence of zeros (nonmigrants) in the data. A failure to
do so can cause the coefficients to be biased and also result in poor
prediction. The major finding is that by using a zero-inflated process,
the performance of the model in predicting migration behavior is
substantially improved. In addition, frequent movers tend to be white,
nonunionized, and tend to have fewer children, less stable marriages,
and more frequent occupational changes." Data are for the United
States for the years 1977 to 1987 and are taken from the Panel Study of
Income Dynamics.
Correspondence: A. K. Bohara, University
of New Mexico, Department of Economics, Albuquerque, NM 87131.
Location: Princeton University Library (UES).
63:10777 Brass, William.
Demographic data analysis in less developed countries:
1946-1996. Population Studies, Vol. 50, No. 3, Nov 1996. 451-67
pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper reviews the
development of indirect techniques for estimating vital rates in the
developing world from census and survey data. The methods considered
include the following: the exploitation of age distributions using the
`own children' method to estimate age-specific fertility rates by
characteristics of the mother; the P/F ratio method for estimating
current fertility and its extensions; the calculation of parity
progression ratios to detect changes in family-building patterns
following the adoption of contraception early in the transition
process; methods for estimating childhood and adult mortality,
including maternal mortality, from data on the survival of close
relatives; the derivation of life tables from such estimates; and the
correction of death rates using `growth balance methods'. The paper
concludes with a section on possible future improvements in estimation
techniques."
Correspondence: W. Brass, London School
of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ,
England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:10778 Coale, Ansley; Trussell,
James. The development and use of demographic models.
Population Studies, Vol. 50, No. 3, Nov 1996. 469-84 pp. London,
England. In Eng.
"In this review, we first examine two
classical demographic models--conventional life tables and stable
populations--and a modern generalization of stable population theory;
we then discuss mathematical models of conception and birth. These
models involve purely mathematical relations in formal demography as
opposed to empirical regularities. Next we consider model age schedules
of mortality, nuptiality, marital fertility, fertility, and migration
that are explicitly based on such empirical patterns. We close this
empirical section with a discussion of model stable populations, which
are based on model life tables. We next examine the use of demographic
models in forecasting future mortality, nuptiality, and fertility and
in population projection. Following a discussion of microsimulation
models, which gives us the opportunity to mention model age schedules
of post partum amenorrhoea and of sterility, we close with observations
about the purposes and uses of demographic
models."
Correspondence: A. Coale, Princeton
University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue,
Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
63:10779 De Sandre, Paolo. The
life cycle: stages and biographical transitions. [Ciclo di vita:
percorsi e transizioni biografiche.] In: Démographie: analyse et
synthèse. Causes et conséquences des évolutions
démographiques, edited by Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin, and
Guillaume Wunsch. Aug 1996. 129-54 pp. Centre Français sur la
Population et le Développement [CEPED]: Paris, France;
Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di
Scienze Demografiche: Rome, Italy. In Ita.
This chapter provides an
overview of the theory and study of life cycles. First, the author
describes how the various stages of an individual's life cycle have
changed in the developed countries over the last two centuries; he then
discusses changes in intergenerational dynamics and the separation of
nuptiality and reproduction. Other sections deal with the consequences
and political implications of these changes, how to integrate various
approaches to the subject, what types of data may be used, and various
models that can be applied to analyze life-cycle
data.
Correspondence: P. De Sandre, Università degli
Studi di Padova, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Via 8 Febbraio 2,
35122 Padua, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:10780 Henz, Ursula. The
behaviour of defective parametric distributions with successively
earlier censoring. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No.
106, ISBN 91-7820-132-2. Jun 1996. 12, [10] pp. Stockholm University,
Demography Unit: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"In this paper, we
question the common assumption that defective parametric distribution
functions are quite robust against censoring and suitable for
forecasting demographic behaviour beyond the period of observation. In
a recent paper, parameter estimates in such models showed strong and
erratic changes with successively earlier artificial censoring....In
the present paper, we explain this behaviour. Both the adequacy of the
model for the empirical data and the censoring time selected determine
changes in estimated parameters....The examples given show sensitivity
of parameter estimates to deviations from the theoretical distribution
as well as strong dependency on local characteristics of the empirical
distribution."
Correspondence: Stockholm University,
Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
63:10781 McDonald, Peter.
Demographic life transitions: an alternative theoretical
paradigm. Health Transition Review, Vol. 6, Suppl., 1996. 385-92
pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"Event history analyses,
while useful, have limited explanatory power in relation to demographic
life transitions....The paper proposes and develops a holistic approach
to the investigation of demographic life transitions which revolves
around three dimensions: the self, the intimate and the social. Event
histories were spawned by the life history approach. The paper argues
that we need to get back to examining the histories of lives, that is,
how events fit into lives, rather than abstracting events from
lives."
Correspondence: P. McDonald, Australian
National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of
Demography and Sociology, Demography Program, Canberra ACT 2601,
Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:10782 Raskin, Paul D. Methods
for estimating the population contribution to environmental
change. Ecological Economics, Vol. 15, No. 3, Dec 1995. 225-33 pp.
Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper introduces general
methods for quantitative analysis of the role of population in
environmental change. The approach is applicable over a wide range of
environmental issues, and arbitrary regions and time periods. First, a
single region is considered, appropriate formulae derived, and the
limitations to quantitative approaches discussed. The approach is
contrasted to earlier formulations, and shown to avoid weaknesses in a
common approximation. Next, the analysis is extended to the multiple
region problem. An apparent paradox in aggregating regional estimates
is illuminated, and the risk of misleading results is underscored. The
methods are applied to the problem of climate change with two case
studies, an historical period and a future scenario, used to illustrate
the results. The contribution of change in population to change in
green house gas emissions is shown to be significant, but not dominant
in both industrialized and developing
regions."
Correspondence: P. D. Raskin, Stockholm
Environment Institute, Boston Center, Tellus Institute, 11 Arlington
Street, Boston, MA 02116. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
63:10783 Valkovics, Emil. An
attempt to enlarge the fields of application of a relatively simple
method of indirect modelling in demography.
[Kísérlet az indirekt modellezés egy viszonylag
egyszeru módszere alkalmazási lehetoségeinek
kiszélesítésére a
demográfiában.] Demográfia, Vol. 39, No. 4, 1996.
333-70 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng.
"The
contribution demonstrates the use of the...concept of indirect
modelling by fitting the values of general age-specific fertility
rates, the cumulated values of general age-specific fertility rates,
the values of age-specific rates of marital fertility, the survivorship
function and the probabilities of dying of the life table using the
corresponding Hungarian data for 1983. The results of this procedure of
indirect modelling are naturally compared with the results of other
procedures of direct and indirect modelling in
demography."
Correspondence: E. Valkovics, Kiscelli u.
18 1.2, 1032 Budapest, Hungary. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
63:10784 Willekens, F. J. Future
prospects for population research in the Netherlands. Population
Research Centre Working Paper, No. 1996-2, May 1996. 7 pp. University
of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Population Research Centre:
Groningen, Netherlands. In Eng.
This paper "briefly describes
the institutional setting of population research in the Netherlands as
it exists today....Opportunities for population research will be
reviewed. A major opportunity is the continuously changing composition
of the population and the increased differentiation of demographic
categories that is associated with social development and their
consequences for policy making in government and business. Two major
factors that may constrain the future development of population studies
are discussed....There is a real danger that population studies will no
longer be recognized as such...but viewed as a field of application of
social or economic research. The challenge ahead will be to respond to
opportunities and to innovate while preserving and strengthening the
core of population studies."
Correspondence:
University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Population
Research Centre, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands. E-mail:
PRC@FRW.RUG.NL. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:10785 Zhang, Fengyu; Wang,
Haidong. Multi-level modeling and its application in
population science. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 8,
No. 2, 1996. 169-77 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"In
analyzing stratified cluster random sample data and stratified data,
this article introduces the ordinary linear models and the Logit model
of dichotomous dependent variables of multi-level analyses and expounds
on the assumptions of these models. The article reviews the historical
background of these models and research results of relevant software.
It also looks into the prospect of the methodological development of
multi-level models. Finally, the article discusses the application of
the multi-level analytical method in such areas of population science
as the analysis of community predictors of reproductive behaviors,
evaluation of family planning programs, infant mortality rate, and
population migration."
Correspondence: F. Zhang,
Beijing University, Population Research Institute, Hai Dian, Beijing
100871, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
