Volume 63 - Number 1 - Spring 1997

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

63:10774 Adams, Melissa M.; Wilson, Hoyt G.; Casto, Dale L.; Berg, Cynthia J.; McDermott, Jeanne M.; Gaudino, James A.; McCarthy, Brian J. Constructing reproductive histories by linking vital records. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 145, No. 4, Feb 15, 1997. 339-48 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
The authors describe efforts to construct reproductive histories for U.S. women using vital statistics data on live births and fetal deaths. "Compiling longitudinal data in the United States has been difficult because of the absence of unique identifiers that facilitate linking records. This report describes the methods used to link birth and fetal death certificates filed in Georgia from 1980 through 1992 and gives an overview of the results." The results indicate that "of the 1.4 million records, 38% did not link to another record. From the remaining records, 369,686 chains of two or more events were constructed....Of the chains, 69% included two events; 22% included three events. Longer chains tended to have lower scores for probable validity....Unfortunately, the small subset of records that were the most difficult to link tended to overrepresent groups with the greatest risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Researchers contemplating a similar linkage can anticipate that, for the majority of records, linkage can be accomplished with a relatively straightforward, deterministic approach."
Correspondence: M. M. Adams, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Public Health Service, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Reproductive Health, MS K-23, 4770 Buford Highway NE, Atlanta, GA 30341-3724. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

63:10775 Alho, Juha M. A note on the use of anticipatory covariates in event history analysis. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 33, 1996. 328-32 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"Anticipatory covariates are regressors whose values become known only after the value of the dependent variable has been ascertained. Hoem (1995) has given an informal discussion concerning the possible pitfalls in the use of such covariates in event history analysis. This paper complements Hoem's findings by using simple linear regression as the framework. It turns out that complex patterns of bias may be introduced by the use of anticipatory covariates. In all cases it may not be possible to guarantee that the magnitude of the bias remains small. Therefore, extreme care is needed in interpreting results from studies that have relied on anticipatory covariates."
Correspondence: J. M. Alho, University of Joensuu, Department of Statistics, P.O. Box 111, 80101 Joensuu, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10776 Bohara, Alok K.; Krieg, Randall G. A zero-inflated Poisson model of migration frequency. International Regional Science Review, Vol. 19, No. 3, 1996. 211-22 pp. Morgantown, West Virginia. In Eng.
"This paper shows that the frequency of migration can be best modeled by a zero-inflated Poisson process, because it takes into account the overwhelming presence of zeros (nonmigrants) in the data. A failure to do so can cause the coefficients to be biased and also result in poor prediction. The major finding is that by using a zero-inflated process, the performance of the model in predicting migration behavior is substantially improved. In addition, frequent movers tend to be white, nonunionized, and tend to have fewer children, less stable marriages, and more frequent occupational changes." Data are for the United States for the years 1977 to 1987 and are taken from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics.
Correspondence: A. K. Bohara, University of New Mexico, Department of Economics, Albuquerque, NM 87131. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

63:10777 Brass, William. Demographic data analysis in less developed countries: 1946-1996. Population Studies, Vol. 50, No. 3, Nov 1996. 451-67 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper reviews the development of indirect techniques for estimating vital rates in the developing world from census and survey data. The methods considered include the following: the exploitation of age distributions using the `own children' method to estimate age-specific fertility rates by characteristics of the mother; the P/F ratio method for estimating current fertility and its extensions; the calculation of parity progression ratios to detect changes in family-building patterns following the adoption of contraception early in the transition process; methods for estimating childhood and adult mortality, including maternal mortality, from data on the survival of close relatives; the derivation of life tables from such estimates; and the correction of death rates using `growth balance methods'. The paper concludes with a section on possible future improvements in estimation techniques."
Correspondence: W. Brass, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10778 Coale, Ansley; Trussell, James. The development and use of demographic models. Population Studies, Vol. 50, No. 3, Nov 1996. 469-84 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this review, we first examine two classical demographic models--conventional life tables and stable populations--and a modern generalization of stable population theory; we then discuss mathematical models of conception and birth. These models involve purely mathematical relations in formal demography as opposed to empirical regularities. Next we consider model age schedules of mortality, nuptiality, marital fertility, fertility, and migration that are explicitly based on such empirical patterns. We close this empirical section with a discussion of model stable populations, which are based on model life tables. We next examine the use of demographic models in forecasting future mortality, nuptiality, and fertility and in population projection. Following a discussion of microsimulation models, which gives us the opportunity to mention model age schedules of post partum amenorrhoea and of sterility, we close with observations about the purposes and uses of demographic models."
Correspondence: A. Coale, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10779 De Sandre, Paolo. The life cycle: stages and biographical transitions. [Ciclo di vita: percorsi e transizioni biografiche.] In: Démographie: analyse et synthèse. Causes et conséquences des évolutions démographiques, edited by Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin, and Guillaume Wunsch. Aug 1996. 129-54 pp. Centre Français sur la Population et le Développement [CEPED]: Paris, France; Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche: Rome, Italy. In Ita.
This chapter provides an overview of the theory and study of life cycles. First, the author describes how the various stages of an individual's life cycle have changed in the developed countries over the last two centuries; he then discusses changes in intergenerational dynamics and the separation of nuptiality and reproduction. Other sections deal with the consequences and political implications of these changes, how to integrate various approaches to the subject, what types of data may be used, and various models that can be applied to analyze life-cycle data.
Correspondence: P. De Sandre, Università degli Studi di Padova, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Via 8 Febbraio 2, 35122 Padua, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10780 Henz, Ursula. The behaviour of defective parametric distributions with successively earlier censoring. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 106, ISBN 91-7820-132-2. Jun 1996. 12, [10] pp. Stockholm University, Demography Unit: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"In this paper, we question the common assumption that defective parametric distribution functions are quite robust against censoring and suitable for forecasting demographic behaviour beyond the period of observation. In a recent paper, parameter estimates in such models showed strong and erratic changes with successively earlier artificial censoring....In the present paper, we explain this behaviour. Both the adequacy of the model for the empirical data and the censoring time selected determine changes in estimated parameters....The examples given show sensitivity of parameter estimates to deviations from the theoretical distribution as well as strong dependency on local characteristics of the empirical distribution."
Correspondence: Stockholm University, Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10781 McDonald, Peter. Demographic life transitions: an alternative theoretical paradigm. Health Transition Review, Vol. 6, Suppl., 1996. 385-92 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"Event history analyses, while useful, have limited explanatory power in relation to demographic life transitions....The paper proposes and develops a holistic approach to the investigation of demographic life transitions which revolves around three dimensions: the self, the intimate and the social. Event histories were spawned by the life history approach. The paper argues that we need to get back to examining the histories of lives, that is, how events fit into lives, rather than abstracting events from lives."
Correspondence: P. McDonald, Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography and Sociology, Demography Program, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10782 Raskin, Paul D. Methods for estimating the population contribution to environmental change. Ecological Economics, Vol. 15, No. 3, Dec 1995. 225-33 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper introduces general methods for quantitative analysis of the role of population in environmental change. The approach is applicable over a wide range of environmental issues, and arbitrary regions and time periods. First, a single region is considered, appropriate formulae derived, and the limitations to quantitative approaches discussed. The approach is contrasted to earlier formulations, and shown to avoid weaknesses in a common approximation. Next, the analysis is extended to the multiple region problem. An apparent paradox in aggregating regional estimates is illuminated, and the risk of misleading results is underscored. The methods are applied to the problem of climate change with two case studies, an historical period and a future scenario, used to illustrate the results. The contribution of change in population to change in green house gas emissions is shown to be significant, but not dominant in both industrialized and developing regions."
Correspondence: P. D. Raskin, Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston Center, Tellus Institute, 11 Arlington Street, Boston, MA 02116. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10783 Valkovics, Emil. An attempt to enlarge the fields of application of a relatively simple method of indirect modelling in demography. [Kísérlet az indirekt modellezés egy viszonylag egyszeru módszere alkalmazási lehetoségeinek kiszélesítésére a demográfiában.] Demográfia, Vol. 39, No. 4, 1996. 333-70 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng.
"The contribution demonstrates the use of the...concept of indirect modelling by fitting the values of general age-specific fertility rates, the cumulated values of general age-specific fertility rates, the values of age-specific rates of marital fertility, the survivorship function and the probabilities of dying of the life table using the corresponding Hungarian data for 1983. The results of this procedure of indirect modelling are naturally compared with the results of other procedures of direct and indirect modelling in demography."
Correspondence: E. Valkovics, Kiscelli u. 18 1.2, 1032 Budapest, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10784 Willekens, F. J. Future prospects for population research in the Netherlands. Population Research Centre Working Paper, No. 1996-2, May 1996. 7 pp. University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Population Research Centre: Groningen, Netherlands. In Eng.
This paper "briefly describes the institutional setting of population research in the Netherlands as it exists today....Opportunities for population research will be reviewed. A major opportunity is the continuously changing composition of the population and the increased differentiation of demographic categories that is associated with social development and their consequences for policy making in government and business. Two major factors that may constrain the future development of population studies are discussed....There is a real danger that population studies will no longer be recognized as such...but viewed as a field of application of social or economic research. The challenge ahead will be to respond to opportunities and to innovate while preserving and strengthening the core of population studies."
Correspondence: University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Population Research Centre, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands. E-mail: PRC@FRW.RUG.NL. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10785 Zhang, Fengyu; Wang, Haidong. Multi-level modeling and its application in population science. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 8, No. 2, 1996. 169-77 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"In analyzing stratified cluster random sample data and stratified data, this article introduces the ordinary linear models and the Logit model of dichotomous dependent variables of multi-level analyses and expounds on the assumptions of these models. The article reviews the historical background of these models and research results of relevant software. It also looks into the prospect of the methodological development of multi-level models. Finally, the article discusses the application of the multi-level analytical method in such areas of population science as the analysis of community predictors of reproductive behaviors, evaluation of family planning programs, infant mortality rate, and population migration."
Correspondence: F. Zhang, Beijing University, Population Research Institute, Hai Dian, Beijing 100871, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1997, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.