F. Fertility

Studies that treat quantitative fertility data analytically. References to crude data are coded under S. Official Statistical Publications. Methodological studies specifically concerned with fertility are cited in this division and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models, if necessary.

F.1. General Fertility

Analytical studies of quantitative birth data and reproduction rates and studies of fertility and its concomitants. Studies of age at marriage, divorce, and factors influencing family size are coded under G.1. Marriage and Divorce or G.2. Family and Household.

63:10179 Abadian, Sousan. Women's autonomy and its impact on fertility. World Development, Vol. 24, No. 12, Dec 1996. 1,793-809 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper seeks to assess empirically the impact of female autonomy on fertility. It argues that by attending to fundamental freedoms for impoverished women, by enhancing women's access to and control over critical resources--their capability to achieve well-being--we not only meet welfare goals but also promote a reduction in fertility. The findings...affirm the post-Cairo discourse emphasizing health and women's education. The findings also suggest the need to broaden the focus to include other initiatives that foster women's autonomy and to engage the full range of empowerment possibilities." The geographical focus is on developing countries.
Correspondence: S. Abadian, Harvard University, 9 Bow Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

63:10180 Al-Qassimi, Saud; Farid, Samir. Reproductive patterns and child survival in the United Arab Emirates. 1996. xi, 136 pp. Ministry of Health: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Council of Health Ministers of GCC States, Executive Board: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In Eng.
This volume presents further analyses of data from the 1987 United Arab Emirates National Child Health Survey. There are chapters on cohort nuptiality patterns, determinants of age at marriage, socioeconomic correlates of fertility, intermediate determinants of fertility, determinants of the duration of breast-feeding, and determinants of child mortality.
Correspondence: Council of Health Ministers of GCC States, P.O. Box 7431, Riyadh 11462, Saudi Arabia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10181 Bongaarts, John; Watkins, Susan C. Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions. Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, No. 4, Dec 1996. 639-82, 813, 815-6 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"An analysis of fertility transitions in 69 developing countries since 1960 finds that the relationship between development and pretransitional fertility, the timing of the onset of transitions, and the pace of fertility decline after transition onset deviate substantially from what would be the case if fertility and development...were closely linked. A few noteworthy empirical regularities were identified....To explain their findings, the authors propose a key role for social interaction. Social interaction, they suggest, operates at three levels of aggregation. Personal networks connect individuals; national channels of social interaction such as migration and language connect social and territorial communities within a country; and global channels such as trade and international organizations connect nations within the global society. Through these channels, actors at all three levels exchange and evaluate information and ideas, and exert and receive social influence, thus affecting reproductive behavior. Development is important in understanding the timing and pace of fertility change, but social interaction is likely to have an independent influence on fertility. Given current levels of development and the proliferation of channels of social interaction, it is likely that few countries will fail to experience a fertility transition over the coming three decades."
Correspondence: J. Bongaarts, Population Council, Research Division, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10182 Bongaarts, John; Lightbourne, Robert. Wanted fertility in Latin America: trends and differentials in seven countries. In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 227-41 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
In this chapter, variations in wanted fertility in Latin America, including the Caribbean, are examined within and among countries and over time. "Specifically, we compare actual fertility as measured by the total fertility rate with preferred fertility as measured by a new wanted total fertility rate developed by Bongaarts (1990) which reflects the fertility level that would prevail if women were to fully implement their preferences for terminating childbearing. Through examining these two indicators, we analyse trends in actual and preferred fertility at the aggregate national level and also by level of education and rural-urban residence. The data for our analysis are taken from fertility surveys undertaken in the period 1975-89. The seven countries included are Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Jamaica, Peru, and Trinidad and Tobago. For each country, two surveys are available, the first invariably being a WFS, and the second usually being a DHS, except for Costa Rica and Jamaica."
Correspondence: J. Bongaarts, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10183 Bravo, Jorge H. Theoretical views of fertility transitions in Latin America: what is the relevance of a diffusionist approach? In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 213-26 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
This chapter is concerned with the diffusion hypothesis and how it applies to Latin America's fertility decline. The author suggests that "at the international level, mortality and development indicators--such as per capita income, literacy, and urbanization--correlate with fertility in the direction predicted by standard transition theory, but these relations have shifted and become less pronounced over the last three decades, suggesting that substantial `structural change' has occurred which is not accounted for by changes in these variables....Once the trend of fertility decline has become manifest at the national level during the same time period, most of the major population subgroups have reduced their fertility, and have done so over a relatively short period of time. Ideal family size has also declined across the board since the mid-1970s, and these trends have apparently been little affected by the economic stagnation or retrogression of the 1980s."
Correspondence: J. H. Bravo, UN Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10184 Caldwell, Bruce. The family and demographic change in Sri Lanka. Health Transition Review, Vol. 6, Suppl., 1996. 45-60 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper examines the contribution of sociological factors to demographic change in Sri Lanka. It focuses on changes within the family and their impact on mortality and fertility....The Sri Lankan fertility decline would appear to be a classic demographic transition. However, in contrast to a number of other Asian countries it has occurred in the absence of remarkable economic growth, and at a comparatively low per capita income....The family has been central to the demographic transition in Sri Lanka. The fact that the central unit of the family was the conjugal unit with little influence from other relatives, and the relatively high position of women have contributed to the mortality transition and been vital to the fertility transition....Marital fertility has fallen because there has been little pressure from relatives on couples to have children, and because their costs have been rising in comparison to their perceived benefits. The comparatively egalitarian nature of the family means that parents gain less materially from having children, than in more hierarchical societies....Finally, a major contribution to Sri Lanka's fertility decline has been made by changes in age at marriage."
Correspondence: B. Caldwell, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, G.P.O. Box 128, Dhaka 2, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10185 Calvès, Anne-Emmanuèle; Cornwell, Gretchen T.; Enyegue, Parfait E. Adolescent sexual activity in Sub-Saharan Africa: do men have the same strategies and motivations as women? Population Research Institute Working Paper, No. AD96-04, Apr 1996. 34 pp. Pennsylvania State University, Population Research Institute: University Park, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
"Despite a growing concern regarding adolescent fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa, the motivations underlying the sexual and childbearing behaviors of African unmarried youth remain poorly documented....The purpose of the study is to examine, using qualitative and quantitative data from Cameroon, what are the motivations and strategies underlying the premarital sexual activity of African adolescents and how they differ by gender."
This paper was originally presented at the 1996 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: Pennsylvania State University, Population Research Institute, 601 Oswald Tower, University Park, PA 16802-6202. Author's E-mail: Calves@pop.psu.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10186 Casterline, John B.; Lee, Ronald D.; Foote, Karen A. Fertility in the United States: new patterns, new theories. Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, Suppl., ISBN 0-87834-086-6. LC 96-44636. 1996. vii, 337 pp. Population Council: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This collection of articles is intended to revisit fertility in the United States. Rather than surveying the field in a systematic way, its goal is to stimulate and refresh our thinking on these topics. Many entries are speculative or theoretical. Some outline directions for future research....These articles change our perspectives on fertility in two ways. First, they portray substantial (and unappreciated) changes in fertility behavior during the past two decades; these have been accompanied by major changes in the underlying constraints and attitudes. Second, they identify and illustrate new frameworks and approaches--developments in concepts, perspectives, and theory--that either did not exist two decades ago or have been elaborated only in recent years."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Population and Development Review, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10187 Catasús Cervera, Sonia; Fraga, Juan C. A. The fertility transition in Cuba. In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 397-413 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The main features of Cuba's demographic transition are examined using data from official sources and from the 1987 National Fertility Survey. Particular attention is given to the proximate determinants and the socioeconomic factors affecting fertility. "The Cuban fertility transition process has been early and rapid in the context of the evolution of fertility in Latin America. This transition has had the peculiarity that over the past thirty years it has been so intense that Cuba has attained a fertility level similar to that of the most socio-economically developed countries. In this process...contraception and abortion have been increasingly important as the most significant proximate determinants; this may be explained as a response to the improvement in health conditions and in education, and to the increasing participation of women in the labour force and in social activities in general."
Correspondence: S. Catasús Cervera, Centro de Estudios Demográficos, Havana, Cuba. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10188 Cerone, Pietro. On the effects of the generalised renewal integral equation model of population dynamics. Genus, Vol. 52, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1996. 53-70 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"Using the integral population model of Sharpe and Lotka as a basis, models are developed which contain time dependent changes of the maternity behaviour of a population. Stable population theory is extended to allow exponential changes of the maternity behaviour by using modifications in the techniques developed by Cerone and Keane. The pattern of change of that behaviour is generalized to include changes described by sums of exponentials....A model is also developed which allows for discrimination of various contraception modes and their differential effect on the fertility of various age-groups of the population. Although the models are developed to describe time dependent decrease of the original maternity regimen, they may also be used to describe any typology of changes."
Correspondence: P. Cerone, Victoria University of Technology, Department of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, P.O. Box 14428, MCMC Melbourne, Victoria 8001, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10189 Chackiel, Juan; Schkolnik, Susana. Latin America: overview of the fertility transition, 1950-1990. In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 3-26 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"One of the purposes of this chapter is to describe the way in which fertility has evolved since 1950 to the present day for [Latin America] as a whole. However, the more basic aim is to show the diversity that exists in patterns of change in the various countries. The report documents the status of the fertility transition for each country, as well as the way in which changes in overall and age-specific fertility have occurred. Differentials in fertility behaviour are also shown for sub-populations defined in terms of geographic, economic, and social characteristics, such as area of residence (degree of urbanization), the level of schooling reached by the mother or the head of the household, and the socio-occupational status of the household head."
Correspondence: J. Chackiel, UN Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10190 Chesnais, Jean-Claude. Fertility, family, and social policy in contemporary Western Europe. Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, No. 4, Dec 1996. 729-39, 814-5, 817 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Period total fertility rates are below replacement level in all Western European countries. Mediterranean countries, commonly labeled traditional, Catholic, and family oriented, exhibit the lowest fertility levels whereas Sweden--the cradle of the modern liberal welfare state and the country in which empowerment of women is most fully realized--has the highest fertility in Western Europe. In seeking an explanation for the fertility differential, this note compares the status of women in Italy and Sweden and contrasts attitudes and policies toward the family in Italy and Germany with those in Britain and Sweden. The evidence suggests that in advanced industrial societies, higher status of women may be a precondition for raising fertility to replacement level."
Correspondence: J.-C. Chesnais, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10191 Cigno, Alessandro; Rosati, Furio C. Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, U.K. and USA. European Economic Review, Vol. 40, No. 8, Nov 1996. 1,561-89 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The comparative-statics predictions of models of the joint determination of household saving and fertility are derived under various hypotheses (self-interest, altruism of parents towards children, altruism of children towards parents, etc.) and compared with those of models which determine saving under the assumption of exogenous fertility. Country-specific saving and fertility equations are then estimated, using time series data for Germany, Italy, U.K. and USA. For each of the countries considered, the estimates are consistent with the hypothesis that saving and fertility are jointly determined by self-interested parents, and reject the alternative hypotheses. The data also show that a self-financing expansion of social security discourages fertility, and generally raises household saving."
Correspondence: A. Cigno, Università di Firenze, Facoltà di Scienze Politiche, Via Laura 48, 50121 Florence, Italy. E-mail: cigno@ccsp6.scpol.unifi.it. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

63:10192 de Carvalho, José A. M.; Wong, Laura R. The fertility transition in Brazil: causes and consequences. In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 373-96 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors analyze Brazil's fertility decline during the period from 1940 to 1985. Consideration is given to both the determinants and the consequences of this change. The authors conclude that the reduction in fertility has taken place in the context of worsening socioeconomic conditions, and that it is by now an accomplished fact. They suggest that it took place not as a response to better living conditions associated with modernization, but as an adjustment strategy in the face of insecurities about the present and fears about the future. Consequences of the fertility decline include changes in the age structure of the Brazilian population; the authors suggest several policy measures geared toward these changes in the areas of child health and education, the labor market, care of the aged, and regional planning.
Correspondence: J. A. M. de Carvalho, CEDEPLAR-UFMG, rua Curitiba 832, 30170-120 Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10193 Dissanayake, Lakshman. The first generation with mass schooling and the fertility transition: the case of Sri Lanka. Health Transition Review, Vol. 6, Suppl., 1996. 137-54 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This study attempts to explain the Sri Lankan fertility transition in terms of the pretransition fertility regime and conditions leading to its destabilization. This study therefore deviates from previous studies of fertility in Sri Lanka which have largely focused upon the post-transitional fertility differentials. From the first formulation of demographic transition theory, education has been used as a significant factor relating to fertility transition, but Caldwell's `mass education-fertility transition' thesis can be regarded as the major attempt to explain the relationship between education and the onset of the fertility transition, with education a central explanatory factor in fertility transition theory. My analysis uses existing fertility theory to explain the education-fertility transition relationship, systematically tests that theory and suggests some modification to the theory on the basis of the Sri Lankan experience."
Correspondence: L. Dissanayake, University of Adelaide, Department of Geography, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10194 Dwivedi, S. N.; Rai, Suresh. Impact of some demographic variables and family planning programme on fertility in Madhya Pradesh through indirect techniques. Health and Population: Perspectives and Issues, Vol. 18, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1995. 19-26 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng. with sum. in Hin.
"In this paper, an attempt was made to investigate the impact of some demographic variables and [the] family planning programme on fertility change [in Madhya Pradesh, India]. Indirect statistical tools were used for this purpose. The standardisation method was used to play with demographic variables namely, age structure, marital status distribution, age specific marital fertility rate and proportion of women of reproductive ages in the total population, and trend analysis was used to play with [the] family planning programme. It was noted that [the] proportion of women of reproductive ages in [the] total population played [a] tremendous role regarding change in [the] crude birth rate. However, there was no significant impact of [the] family planning programme on fertility change."
Correspondence: S. N. Dwivedi, All India Institute of Medical Science, Department of Biostatistics, Ansari Nagar, New Delhi 110 029, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10195 Egerö, Bertil. Poverty and fertility: reproductive change under persistent poverty. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 33, 1996. 218-42 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"Bangladesh belongs to a group of countries with persistent and widespread poverty where the beginnings of fertility decline have now been recorded. The absence of any visibly significant socioeconomic changes for its rural majority has been used to justify claims that family planning activities have an independent effect on fertility. The paper draws together available evidence on the circumstances of rural life in Bangladesh. Taken together, the evidence is that changes have occurred in social relations in the household, brought about by economic crisis and in turn enabling changes in childbearing. The Bangladesh evidence confirms the difficulties encountered on a conceptual level in trying to maintain a distinction between materialist and ideational approaches to fertility analysis. The distinction between the two lines is unclear, and upholding it could be counterproductive to advances in the understanding of fertility change."
Correspondence: B. Egerö, University of Lund, Department of Sociology, Programme on Population and Development, P.O. Box 117, 221 00 Lund, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10196 El-Khorazaty, M. Nabil. Twentieth-century family life cycle and its determinants in the United States. Journal of Family History, Vol. 22, No. 1, Jan 1997. 70-109 pp. Thousand Oaks, California. In Eng.
"Fertility schedules, one of the most important vital statistics, are used to construct a new period and cohort time series macrolevel data set of family life cycle/childbearing and fertility-inhibiting indices for the United States in the twentieth century. Calculation of these macrolevel indices on an annual basis is accomplished by the application of recent demographic methodologies, which require only knowledge of age-specific fertility rates. These annual sets of indices, which otherwise would require detailed biographical information on the dates of such events, are needed to fully capture demographic change and to quantitatively ascertain changes in fertility behavior and attitudes and, hence, describe family structure and the timing and speed of child production for better understanding of American society."
Correspondence: M. N. El-Khorazaty, 14500 Settlers Landing Way, N. Potomac, MD 20878-4308. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10197 El-shalakani, Mostafa. Estimation of parity progression ratios from survey data on birth intervals in Egypt. Egyptian Population and Family Planning Review, Vol. 26, No. 2, Dec 1992. 67-82 pp. Giza, Egypt. In Eng.
"Data on open and closed birth intervals compiled from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey (EFS) were used to estimate instantaneous parity progression ratios of the population which can be considered as a period measure. A high level of estimated values indicates a high level of fertility currently prevailing among Egyptian women and a continuation of childbearing for a longer period. As expected, rural women progress to higher parities much faster than urban women."
Correspondence: M. El-shalakani, Kuwait University, Department of Statistics and Operations Research, P.O. Box 5969, Safat, Kuwait. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10198 Ellingsæter, Anne L.; Rønsen, Marit. The dual strategy: motherhood and the work contract in Scandinavia. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 12, No. 3, Sep 1996. 239-60 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Mothers' employment in the Scandinavian countries is generally characterised by high employment rates. At the same time the fertility level is higher than in most European countries. Scandinavian women have to a large extent developed a dual strategy towards employment and children: Most women choose to have at least two children and they continue their employment after and between births. In this paper we discuss how this dual strategy can be explained, taking the case of Norway. We argue that the strategy of Norwegian mothers is based on arrangements in working life which enable employed mothers to pursue motherhood within the work contract."
Correspondence: A. L. Ellingsæter, Institute for Social Research, Munthes gt. 31, 0260 Oslo, Norway. E-mail: ali@isaf.no. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10199 Farahat, Ahmed M.; Fattah, Mohamed N. A.; Mahgoub, Yousef M. Socio-economic determinants of achieved fertility in Egypt. Egyptian Population and Family Planning Review, Vol. 26, No. 1, Jun 1992. 1-38 pp. Giza, Egypt. In Eng.
The authors investigate socioeconomic determinants of fertility in Egypt. The paper "begins with the intermediate variables and then moves to [a] wider range of social, demographic and environmental influences....The results have shown that age and age related indicators (years since first union and age at first union) are the best group of independent indicators to explain number of children...."
Correspondence: A. M. Farahat, Cairo University, Khartoum Branch, Faculty of Commerce, Department of Statistics, Mathematics and Insurance, P.O. Box 1055, Khartoum, Sudan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10200 Flórez, Carmen E. Social change and transitions in the life histories of Colombian women. In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 252-72 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The relation between fertility behavior and certain aspects of modernization in Colombia is analyzed using a life-history approach and data from surveys carried out in 1984 and 1986. "Specifically, this study has two basic aims. First, it attempts to document changes and differentials in how the early stages of the life history of Colombian women are organized, as a consequence of the demographic and structural changes associated with modernization. Secondly, it aims to document the association between the modernization variables and parity progression ratios, using basic elements of multivariate regression and life-table analysis."
Correspondence: C. E. Flórez, Universidad de los Andes, Carrera 1, No. 18 A-70, Santafé de Bogotá, Colombia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10201 Friedlander, Dov; Okun, Barbara S. Fertility transition in England and Wales: continuity and change. Health Transition Review, Vol. 6, Suppl., 1996. 1-18 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"The focus of this paper is whether the transition from high to low fertility reveals continuity or discontinuity with the past. Our analyses of districts of England and Wales over time reveal an overall picture of continuity. Specifically, we show that (1) a substantial proportion of districts experienced pretransition variations in marital fertility that were so large...they are suggestive of deliberate fertility control; (2) the changes over time in the distributions of marital fertility levels and the relative importance of marital fertility levels to the determination of overall fertility levels were gradual and smooth; (3) the proportion of districts dominated by marital fertility variation, as opposed to nuptiality variation, increased gradually over time, and both marital fertility and nuptiality variations were present in all periods considered; and (4) there are important relationships between changes over time in marital fertility and socio-economic variables in periods both before and after the transition."
Correspondence: D. Friedlander, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus Campus, Jerusalem 91905, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10202 Goldscheider, Frances K.; Kaufman, Gayle. Fertility and commitment: bringing men back in. In: Fertility in the United States: new patterns, new theories, edited by John B. Casterline, Ronald D. Lee, and Karen A. Foote. Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, Suppl., 1996. 87-99 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article explores how recent changes in the family challenge the ways demographers approach the study of fertility. We primarily consider the effects of recent changes in the United States, but the argument applies to fertility study in both more and less industrialized countries. Changes in family patterns are occurring rapidly throughout the world, although the type of change varies. In most cases, the changes shift the roles of men and women, both in relation to each other and in relation to their children....Our argument in this article is that the level of commitment between men and women is the key variable missing in the current study of fertility. We describe what we do know and why we know so little, and we try to convey why this review tells us that we should know a lot more."
Correspondence: F. K. Goldscheider, Brown University, Department of Sociology and Population Studies, Box 1916, Providence, RI 02912. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10203 Guengant, Jean-Pierre. Demographic transition in the Caribbean: an attempt at interpretation. In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 74-94 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The fertility decline that occurred in most of the countries of the Caribbean (defined as the islands of the West Indies, Belize, French Guiana, Guyana, and Suriname) over the course of the 1970s and 1980s is described. Attention is given to the differences in the extent and timing of fertility changes among countries. The analysis "is basically limited to an examination of the role of socio-economic factors. In the first place, the declines in fertility are briefly placed in their historical context, and in the context of the major transformations the countries of the region have undergone since the end of the Second World War. Secondly, an effort has been made to characterize the different types of transition. Finally, the importance of the following factors in the fertility decline is examined: the decline in infant mortality, the diffusion of contraception, the other proximate determinants of fertility, and economic and social change."
Correspondence: J.-P. Guengant, UN Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10204 Guilmoto, Cristophe Z. The microeconomics of fertility: some reflections on the case of India. [Micro-économie de la fécondité: quelques réflexions à partir du cas indien.] ETS Documents de Recherche, No. 2, Nov 1996. 22 pp. Equipe de Recherche Transition de la Fécondité et Santé de la Reproduction [ETS]: Marseilles, France; Institut Français de Recherche Scientifique pour le Développement en Coopération [ORSTOM]: Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"This paper examines the contribution of microeconomic theories to the understanding of social and geographical dimensions of fertility transition in India. In a first part, we present an overview of the two commonest theoretical formulations of the economic approach of fertility. According to the first theory, changes in reproductive behaviour are mainly to be regarded as the responses of households to exogenous changes and to their impact on the relative value and cost of children. The trade-off between quantity and quality of children is then an essential element to understand fertility decline. According to the second model, exogenous changes may also alter the system of norms and preferences which is otherwise assumed to [be] invariable in standard economic theory. The usefulness of these analytical frameworks is then examined in the light of the Indian experience where fertility behaviour is extremely heterogeneous between groups and regions. It is shown that economic explanations per se seem to be far less important than cultural and social dimensions."
Correspondence: Equipe de Recherche Transition de la Fécondité et Santé de la Reproduction, ORSTOM/LPE, Case 10, Centre St. Charles, 3 Place Victor Hugo, 13331 Marseilles Cedex 3, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10205 Haines, Michael R.; Guest, Avery M. Fertility and marriage in New York State in the era of the Civil War. NBER Working Paper Series on Historical Factors in Long Run Growth, No. 70, Jul 1995. 26, [18] pp. National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER]: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"This paper analyzes a five percent systematic sample of households from the manuscripts of the New York State Census of 1865 for seven counties....This census was the first in the United States to ask a question on children ever born. These parity data, along with own-children estimates of age-specific overall and marital fertility rates, are used to examine the relation of fertility with rural-urban residence, occupation, ethnicity, literacy, and location within the state....The parity data provide direct evidence of fertility decline in the United States during the first half of the nineteenth century."
Correspondence: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10206 Hobcraft, John. Fertility in England and Wales: a fifty-year perspective. Population Studies, Vol. 50, No. 3, Nov 1996. 485-524 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper provides a detailed account of fertility levels and trends in England and Wales since 1938, with a briefer coverage of a much longer time-span. The paper is concerned both with the measurement of fertility and with understanding the observed fertility behaviour. We lament and correct the failure of demographers to apply measurement tools available since the 1950s to the analysis of fertility in England and Wales, with a particular emphasis on adjustment of period measures and period parity progression ratios and show how some of the grosser errors of analysis and interpretation might have been avoided by earlier use of these approaches. We also relate these estimates to more recent ones. Once a clearer account of trends has been established, the paper goes on to reinterpret and explain the baby boom and baby bust. The conclusion looks at future prospects for fertility."
Correspondence: J. Hobcraft, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Social Policy and Administration, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10207 Hoem, Britta. Some features of recent demographic trends in Sweden. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 104, ISBN 91-7820-128-4. Apr 1996. 11, [8] pp. Stockholm University, Demography Unit: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"In this report we have summarised some important findings from the 1992 survey Family and Working Life. It shows that just about all women and men in Sweden have had children or expect to have children in the future. The normal expectation is to have at least two children. Despite women's high labour-force participation, gender-role patterns are quite traditional in Swedish families....One noticeable change from our older to our younger cohorts is the strong increase in first unions that are disrupted. This is probably a consequence of the large number of couples that form at young ages."
Correspondence: Stockholm University, Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10208 Hoem, Britta. The social meaning of the age at second birth for third-birth fertility: a methodological note on the need to sometimes respecify an intermediate variable. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 33, 1996. 333-9 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"In hazard regressions for a number of countries, including Sweden, more highly educated women have been found to have higher third-birth rates than other women. In this paper we show that this positive educational gradient disappears when age at second birth is respecified in order to better catch what age at second birth means to women at the various levels of education. Instead of a conventional age grouping that is the same for all educational categories, we suggest that the age factor should be defined so as to reflect what is normal and unusual childbearing behavior for each educational level separately. Considerations of a similar nature can be equally important in other contexts."
Correspondence: B. Hoem, Statistiska Centralbyrån, Karlavägen 100, 115 81 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10209 Horne, A. Dale; El-Khorazaty, M. Nabil. Childbearing and Bongaarts indices for Coale-Trussell's model fertility schedules. Genus, Vol. 52, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1996. 161-80 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng.
"With only knowledge of Coale-Trussell's model parameters, one can obtain ASFRs [age-specific fertility rates] (from a model fertility schedule, MFS) required to calculate the childbearing temporal indices (through the childbearing model), which subsequently can be used to estimate fertility-inhibiting indices (through the multivariate regression model). It is thus possible...to achieve a more comprehensive picture about the fertility and childbearing process, and extend information provided by the Coale-Trussell model by estimating the two sets of childbearing and fertility-inhibiting indices for each of the 795 MFSs, for given plausible values of total fertility rates (TFRs). The present paper provides a broader knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the reproductive patterns in human populations by combining and tying together various recent methodologies and models."
Correspondence: A. D. Horne, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, 1401 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852-1448. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10210 Islam, M. Nurul; Abedin, Samad. Some observations on marriage, contraception and fertility in Bangladesh. Genus, Vol. 52, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1996. 201-7 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng.
"The objectives [of this paper are] (i) to examine the trends in the inherent peculiarities of the nuptiality patterns [in Bangladesh], and (ii) to evaluate the contribution of the factors of contraception and marriage on fertility."
Correspondence: M. N. Islam, Rajshahi University, Department of Statistics, Rajshahi 6205, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10211 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). Total fertility rates and age-specific fertility rates for selected countries. Institute of Population Problems Research Series, No. 287, Mar 25, 1996. 111 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Data are presented on total fertility rates and age-specific fertility rates for most of the countries of the world. The data are from the UN Demographic Yearbook.
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10212 Jejeebhoy, Shireen J. Women's education, autonomy and reproductive behavior: assessing what we have learned. [1996?]. 35 pp. East-West Center, Program on Population [POP]: Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
"The aim of this paper is to review, under various cultural conditions and settings of the developing world, the relationships that exist between women's education, their autonomy and their reproductive behavior. The paper addresses three questions: First, is the relationship of women's education to fertility always inverse, and if not, is there a threshold level of education that a woman must achieve before that inverse relationship becomes apparent? Second, do improvements in women's education empower them in other areas of life...? And third, how does education affect the critical pathways influencing fertility--age at marriage, breast-feeding and postpartum abstinence, desired family size and contraception? Do the changes in women's autonomy fostered by education have consequences for fertility and for its proximate determinants?"
Correspondence: East-West Center, Program on Population, 1601 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10213 Joshi, Heather; David, Patricia. The social and economic context of fertility. In: Démographie: analyse et synthèse. Causes et conséquences des évolutions démographiques, edited by Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin, and Guillaume Wunsch. Aug 1996. 89-128 pp. Centre Français sur la Population et le Développement [CEPED]: Paris, France; Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche: Rome, Italy. In Eng.
"This chapter is mainly concerned with the social and economic explanations of deliberate actions whose cumulated outcome is the rate of human reproduction....Section 1 sketches a behavioural framework for the understanding of social reproduction....Sections 2 and 3 review some approaches from...economics and sociology....Section 4 considers some contemporary issues, in both developing and industrial countries....The questions selected are: Why does fertility decline with development? Can fertility decline in poor countries? Women's education--a materialist or ideational influence? Is childbearing for old age security? What makes fertility fluctuate in rich countries? Are state policies effective in accelerating fertility decline? [and] Are state policies effective in preventing sub-replacement fertility?"
Correspondence: H. Joshi, City University, Social Statistics Research Unit, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10214 Juárez, Fátima; Llera, Silvia. The process of family formation during the fertility transition. In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 48-73 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
This chapter is about the similarities and dissimilarities in the family formation process in various Latin American countries undergoing the transition to lower levels of fertility. The data are from the World Fertility Survey and the Demographic and Health Surveys in Brazil, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, and Peru. "A brief description of changes in general levels of fertility in Latin America is given in the first section; the next section contains details of variations in the family formation process over the past ten years among several countries of the region; then a general overview of family patterns in 1986-7 (inter-country analysis) is given; and finally, evidence is presented on certain variables that intervene in the process of change."
Correspondence: F. Juárez, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10215 Kamarás, Ferenc. The European Fertility and Family Planning Survey in Hungary. [Európai Temékenységi és Családvizsgálat Magyarországon.] Demográfia, Vol. 38, No. 4, 1995. 309-39 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun.
The results of a fertility survey carried out in Hungary in 1992-1993 are presented. Data are included on residential characteristics; the creation and dissolution of marital unions; number of children; timing of fertility; maternal educational status and first, second, and third births; marital status at first birth; family planning; age at first intercourse; number of children desired; and expected family size. Most of the data are presented separately for males and females.
Correspondence: F. Kamarás, Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal, Keleti Karoly Utca 5-7, 1525 Budapest II, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10216 Kane, Penny; Ruzicka, Lado. Women's education and the demographic transition in Africa. Health Transition Review, Vol. 6, Suppl., 1996. 101-13 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"In the attempt to understand how the attitude toward sending girls to school, both of parents and the community at large, has changed and how these changes bring about a transformation of family formation and reproductive behaviour, we have turned to an unconventional source of information: the novel, together with a small sample of autobiographies. The approach has a precedent in Victorian Families in Fact and Fiction by Kane (1994). There she examined nineteenth-century literature, diaries and memoirs in an attempt to identify attitudes and behaviour which might have influenced the course of the demographic transition in Britain. Here we undertake [a] similar examination using a sample of modern African writing from the Heinemann African Writers Series."
Correspondence: P. Kane, The Old School, George Street, Major's Creek, nr. Braidwood, NSW 2622, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10217 Kazakhstan. Academy of Preventive Medicine of Kazakhstan (Almaty, Kazakhstan); Kazakhstan. National Institute of Nutrition (Almaty, Kazakhstan). Kazakstan Demographic and Health Survey, 1995. Nov 1996. xxvi, 260 pp. Almaty, Kazakhstan. In Eng.
This report presents the main results from the Demographic and Health Survey conducted in Kazakhstan in 1995. This survey involved a nationally representative probability sample of 3,771 women aged 15-49. Following introductory chapters describing the country and the survey methodology, there are chapters on fertility, contraception, induced abortion, other proximate determinants of fertility, fertility preferences, infant and child mortality, maternal and child health, the nutrition of women and children, and anemia. The results indicate a continuing decline in fertility (the current total fertility rate is 3.1 among ethnic Kazakhs and 1.7 among ethnic Russians), a continuing decline in infant and child mortality (the infant mortality rate for the period 1990-1994 was 40 per 1,000), an increase in contraceptive practice (84% of women reported having used a method of contraception at some time), and a decline in levels of induced abortion (at current rates, women will have an average of 1.8 abortions over their lifetime).
Correspondence: Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys, 11785 Beltsville Drive, Calverton, MD 20705-3119. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10218 Kelly, Robert. An evolutionary perspective on population growth. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 33, 1996. 319-27 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"This article is a preliminary attempt to evaluate the effect that evolution has on fertility. First, the conditions necessary for an evolutionary effect are discussed, the most important condition being the existence of fertility-enhancing traits (not necessarily genetic) which can be passed from parent to child. Next, two mathematical models are discussed which give insight into the relation between evolution and fertility. The models yield a crude approximation relating the correlation (r) between number of siblings and number of children born to women in a given population to a subsequent evolution-related rise in fertility in the same population over one generation. The approximation is evaluated using the value of r as determined from a 1981 study sample of Swedish-born women. Finally, the possibilities of long-term fertility predictions and control of population growth are discussed."
Correspondence: R. Kelly, Amsthospitalet i Vordingborg, Vordingborg, Denmark. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10219 Khan, H. T. Abdullah; Raeside, Robert. Factors affecting the most recent fertility rates in urban-rural Bangladesh. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 44, No. 3, Feb 1997. 279-89 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper reports on a study which has been undertaken using data from the 1989 Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) to determine the significance of influences on the probability of birth in the year preceding the survey. In the survey a total of 11,905 ever-married women of reproductive age were asked a battery of questions relating to fertility aspects of women. Variables selected in this study were grouped into demographic, socio-economic, cultural and decision-making variables. Findings from the study indicate that the mother's age, whether contraception has ever been used, the death of a child at any time, whether the woman has ever worked, religion, region of residence, and female independence are the important covariates for explaining recent fertility in Bangladesh. Models are developed for the probabilities of a woman giving birth in urban and rural areas, dependent on her demographic and socio-economic conditions. Also developed are models for contraceptive use in urban-rural Bangladesh."
Correspondence: H. T. A. Khan, University of Dhaka, Department of Statistics, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

63:10220 Khuda, Barkat; Hossain, Mian B. Fertility decline in Bangladesh: toward an understanding of major causes. Health Transition Review, Vol. 6, Suppl., 1996. 155-67 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"The paper examines the nature of fertility transition in Bangladesh, looks at the trends in contraceptive use and fertility, and identifies the major factors accounting for the fertility decline, despite poor socio-economic conditions. Two types of factors in the decline are: (a) positive factors which encourage eligible couples to contracept, and (b) negative factors which compel women to contracept, for spacing or limiting births. The effects of positive and negative factors on contraceptive use and fertility are analysed with data from a rural sample of 4,194 women from the 1993-94 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS), 2,597 women from the MCH-FP Extension Project area, and 8,110 women from the Matlab MCH-FP Project area. Logistic regression is used in the analysis. Strong and highly significant effects of female education, female employment and access to media on contraceptive use and fertility have been found."
Correspondence: Barkat-e-Khuda, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10221 Kizito, P. M. L.; Obungu, Walter; Kibet, Moses; Njogu, Wamucii. Fertility transition in Kenya. DHS Further Analysis Studies, No. 11, Dec 1991. 23 pp. Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Calverton, Maryland. In Eng.
"This study adopts the proximate determinants framework to examine fertility change in Kenya. Three objectives are pursued. The first one is to describe fertility levels and trends at the aggregate and subgroup level, classified by level of education and type and region of residence. The second objective is to document trends in the proximate determinants of fertility (breastfeeding, contraceptive use, marital patterns, postpartum infecundability, and sterility). The third objective is to examine the relative role of the various determinants [of] the fertility decline."
Correspondence: Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys, 11785 Beltsville Drive, Calverton, MD 20705-3119. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10222 Ladier-Fouladi, Marie. The fertility transition in Iran. [La transition de la fécondité en Iran.] Population, Vol. 51, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1996. 1,101-27 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"In Iran, fertility has remained high for a long time, and only began to decline significantly during the second half of the 1980s. That the fertility transition in Iran began under the Islamic Republic's regime leads one to question the hypothesis that the resurgence of Islam on the political and legal scene was responsible for the high level of fertility and the delayed transition. In fact, changes in the law, and more specifically the institutionalisation of the sharia rules did not affect demographic developments. The delayed beginning of the transition may be explained by the poor cultural and socio-economic environment which resulted in successive governments granting considerable support to facilitate the transition. An examination of both close and remote determinants clearly shows that evolving sociocultural and economic circumstances are the principal cause of fertility decline."
Correspondence: M. Ladier-Fouladi, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10223 Levine, Phillip B.; Staiger, Douglas; Kane, Thomas J.; Zimmerman, David J. Roe v. Wade and American fertility. NBER Working Paper, No. 5615, Jun 1996. 17, [11] pp. National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER]: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"We consider the effect of abortion legalization on births in the United States. A simple theoretical model demonstrates that the impact of abortion legalization on the birth rate is ambiguous, because both pregnancy and abortion decisions could be affected. We use variation in the timing of legalization across states in the early 1970s to estimate the effect of abortion on birth rates. Our findings indicate that states legalizing abortion experienced a 5% decline in births relative to other states."
Correspondence: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

63:10224 Low, Bobbi S. Men, women, and sustainability. Population and Environment, Vol. 18, No. 2, Nov 1996. 111-41 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Here I will argue that in the evolutionary history of all living things, `more' has always been reproductively more profitable--either more babies, or better-provisioned (more consumptive) babies. This distinction is crucial: the most successful reproductive tactic in many environments is not to make the maximum number of offspring, but to make fewer, better-invested offspring. When lowered fertility produces greater lineage success through fewer, better-invested children...lowered fertility produces no solution to the population-consumption dilemma. Several scholars estimate that a child raised in the developed world today consumes 15 times the amount used by a child in the less developed world. When this is true, a two-fold decrease in fertility, accompanied by a fifteen-fold increase in consumption, does not bode well for our ecological future. We need a new approach to understanding the relationships among resource consumption, fertility, and sustainability."
Correspondence: B. S. Low, University of Michigan, School of Natural Resources and Environment, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1115. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10225 Mackinnon, Alison. Were women present at the demographic transition? Questions from a feminist historian to historical demographers. Gender and History, Vol. 7, No. 2, Aug 1995. 222-40 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"One of the most fundamental and least understood of the forces reshaping relations between the sexes in late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century society is the strangely named `fertility decline' in modern Western states. In this brief essay I outline some major strands of the discourses around fertility and reflect on their omissions. I also consider the persistence of certain rhetorical formulations which continue to operate as explanatory systems. I suggest that women, while far from invisible in the fertility literature, are portrayed either as lacking decision-making ability or, when recognized as decision makers, as responsible for poor or selfish decisions."
Correspondence: A. Mackinnon, University of South Australia, Institute of Social Research, St. Bernard Road, Magill, SA 5072, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10226 Macunovich, Diane J. Relative income and price of time: exploring their effects on U.S. fertility and female labor force participation. In: Fertility in the United States: new patterns, new theories, edited by John B. Casterline, Ronald D. Lee, and Karen A. Foote. Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, Suppl., 1996. 223-57 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The analyses presented in this article have attempted to develop a comprehensive framework for understanding the dramatic changes in fertility, female labor force participation, and female enrollments that we have observed in the 20-24 age group in the United States over the past 25 years. This has been accomplished using a blending of the two primary economic models developed for that purpose: the Easterlin `relative income' model and the `price of time' model. This combination, together with the assumption of a changing strength of the income effect of the female wage, has produced models with extraordinarily good explanatory power for the period since the mid-1960s....The results presented here are strongly supportive of the hypothesis that [male relative income] has been a dominant influence on many of the most significant socioeconomic changes observed in the past three decades."
Correspondence: D. J. Macunovich, Williams College, Williamstown, MA 01267. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10227 Martina, Alan. The quantity/quality of children hypothesis in developing countries: testing by considering some demographic experiences in China, India and Africa. Health Transition Review, Vol. 6, Suppl., 1996. 191-212 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"Initially a general regression equation is estimated, making use of cross-country data, relating the level of the total fertility rate to a range of variables, including the level of per capita real income. There is a statistically significant negative relationship between the level of the total fertility rate and real income per capita. Once the theory of the quantity-cum-quality of children hypothesis is set out formally, and in a flexible form, it is clear that this statistical relationship is not inconsistent with this theory....To provide more satisfactory tests of this hypothesis, additional relevant information from various developing countries is used. Information on recent demographic changes in China provides a comparatively powerful, direct test of the theory. More indirect tests of the theory are provided by drawing on data for India in the 1960s, and for sub-Saharan African countries in the 1980s and early 1990s. These various tests suggest that the quantity-cum-quality hypothesis, in its flexible form, appears to explain some of the changes in fertility rates observed in various developing countries in recent decades."
Correspondence: A. Martina, Australian National University, Department of Economic History, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10228 McClamroch, Kristi. Total fertility rate, women's education, and women's work: what are the relationships? Population and Environment, Vol. 18, No. 2, Nov 1996. 175-86 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper presents the results of a statistical study, using cross-national data, on the relationships between total fertility rate and women's level of education and women's labor participation. Aggregate data on seventy-one countries were collected from numerous sources. Eight variables related to women's fertility, mortality, economic status, labor participation, and education are analyzed using multivariate linear regression analyses. Two models are considered....Although the data are crude, the results of the analyses suggest that the model which incorporates women's level of education and women's labor participation captures the data better than the smaller model. The full model suggests that the percentage of women in the labor force is directly related to total fertility rate, whereas the average number of years of education for women is indirectly related to total fertility rate."
Correspondence: K. McClamroch, University of Michigan, Population-Environment Dynamics Project, SPHII, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10229 Micheli, Giuseppe A. New patterns of family formation in Italy. Which tools for which interpretations? Genus, Vol. 52, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1996. 15-52 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Ita; Fre.
"The author puts forward a key to interpreting the change having taken place in social and demographic reproduction processes in Italy during the last few decades; he corroborates his arguments with a range of sources that are not...necessarily orthodox in demographic terms, in order to answer five questions: when and where was the demographic change triggered? If changes occur not so much in behaviour as in its underlying rationale, how does the rationale of action change? What `explains' this change of rationale? What historical situations may have helped to activate this mechanism? And, lastly, what logical scheme is required to interpret the coexistence, in the same contexts, of the present demographic stagnation and some anomic mutations that undermined reciprocity systems during the epochal transition of the 1940s?"
Correspondence: G. A. Micheli, Università Cattolica di Milano, Istituto di Statistica, Via Necchi 9, 20123 Milan, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10230 Montgomery, Mark R.; Casterline, John B. Social learning, social influence, and new models of fertility. In: Fertility in the United States: new patterns, new theories, edited by John B. Casterline, Ronald D. Lee, and Karen A. Foote. Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, Suppl., 1996. 151-75 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Our objective [is] to describe a model for fertility that contains elements that have been neglected--although often parenthetically acknowledged--in most fertility research." The authors begin by "developing the concepts of social learning and social influence, drawing upon insights from several social science disciplines. The model set out in the first section has general applicability, we believe, although we highlight various aspects that may be of greater interest in the developed-country context. We then consider promising lines of inquiry in the context of the United States, with particular attention to decisionmaking among adolescents, contraceptive method choice, and service delivery strategies. In the final section we discuss some of the methodological difficulties that will confront new research and present our conclusions."
Correspondence: M. R. Montgomery, State University of New York, Department of Economics, Stony Brook, NY 11790. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10231 Moreno, Lorenzo; Singh, Susheela. Fertility decline and changes in proximate determinants in the Latin American and Caribbean regions. In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 113-34 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
This chapter is concerned with changes in the proximate determinants of fertility over time in the various countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. The authors use the available WFS and DHS data. "We first look at the pattern of change by absolute measures of the three proximate determinants. Secondly, we present results from the most widely applied model, that of Bongaarts, comparing the pattern of changes in indices from an earlier period of higher fertility with a later period of lower fertility, for a number of countries. Inconsistencies that arise from the comparison of changes in the actual measures of the determinants and changes in the indices are discussed. We then compare results from the Bongaarts model with those from the model developed by Moreno."
Correspondence: L. Moreno, Mathematica Policy Research, P.O. Box 2393, Princeton, NJ 08543-2393. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10232 Morgan, S. Philip. Characteristic features of modern American fertility. In: Fertility in the United States: new patterns, new theories, edited by John B. Casterline, Ronald D. Lee, and Karen A. Foote. Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, Suppl., 1996. 19-63 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"These pages describe recent trends and differentials in U.S. fertility....The article uses standard tools of the trade. I begin by describing longterm trends, thereby placing recent experience in historical perspective. These trends are decomposed into `timing' and `number' changes and are disaggregated by age and parity....The dominant analytic frameworks in social demography (proximate determinants and life course) are introduced to guide a closer examination of post-1960 trends and differentials. Data show persistently high teenage childbearing, increases in fertility among women in their 30s, and a slowed pace of transition to second and third births for women in all age groups. Contraceptive use, contraceptive failure, and abortion are key proximate determinants of fertility for all age groups. Finally, because of the popular attention they receive and because of their import for public policy discussion, I devote special attention to nonmarital childbearing and to racial/ethnic fertility differences."
Correspondence: S. P. Morgan, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10233 Moring, Beatrice. The regulation of fertility in pre-industrial populations: a local study from eighteenth century Finland. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 33, 1996. 284-94 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"The crude birth rate in Finland in the eighteenth century was more than 40 per thousand. At the same time there was considerable regional diversity. This study of a coastal population in southwestern Finland reveals that the fertility was well below that of the country as a whole and as low or even lower than that recorded for neighboring countries. A more detailed study of families in Houtskär indicates that the pattern of fertility varied according to the socioeconomic standing of the family head. Differences in age at first marriage were a critical determinant of these variations but other important factors were birth spacing and the timing of the last birth. A conscious attempt was made to limit family size."
Correspondence: B. Moring, Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, 27 Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1QA, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10234 Nair, Sukumari N. Determinants of birth intervals in Kerala: an application of Cox's hazard model. Genus, Vol. 52, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1996. 47-65 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Ita; Fre.
"The present study is an attempt to delineate the differences in the patterns and determinants of birth intervals which appear highly relevant in a transitional population such as Kerala [India]. In this country two comparable surveys, with a period difference of 20 years, were conducted. The study tries to estimate the effects of socio-economic, demographic and proximate variables using Cox's proportional hazard model. For the former data-set, socio-economic variables have [a] significant effect on birth intervals, while for the latter data proximate variables are the significant determinants of birth intervals."
Correspondence: S. N. Nair, University of Kerala, Population Research Centre, Thiruvananthapuram 695 581, Kerala, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10235 Notkola, Veijo. Parish records from Namibia 1925-1990--an attempt to analyze fertility and mortality in Ovamboland. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 33, 1996. 295-305 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"The general aim of the study is to describe and to try to understand the population development (mortality and fertility) in Ovamboland in North-Namibia....According to the results both a clear decline and increase in fertility have occurred during 1930-1980 although fertility has been all the time close to natural fertility. Mortality declined in the 1950s in Ovamboland. The main cause for the mortality decline was probably the health care system built by the missionaries. At the same time, however, there [were] no more bad famines in the area during the 1950s and in general the nutrition level also improved during the 1950s."
Correspondence: V. Notkola, University of Helsinki, Population Research Unit, P.O. Box 33, 00014 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10236 Odimegwu, Clifford O.; Zerai, Assata. Understanding the proximate determinants of fertility of a Nigerian ethnic group. Genus, Vol. 52, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1996. 67-87 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Ita; Fre.
"This paper uses data from a 1992/93 sample survey of 1,000 women aged 15-49 in selected areas of Imo State, Nigeria. The purpose of the survey was to get information/data on birth-spacing dynamics of the area. In this paper, we applied the basic Bongaarts model and its extended version to identify the proximate determinants of Igbo fertility. A total fertility rate [of] 6.7 births per woman is estimated from the model compared with a TFR of 7.26 actually observed from the survey. When compared with earlier studies, it is shown that the principal proximate determinant of fertility in the area is no more lactational infecundability, but delayed marriage. Explanations for this change, future research needs and policy implications are discussed."
Correspondence: C. O. Odimegwu, Obafemi Awolowo University, Department of Demography and Social Statistics, Ile-Ife, Nigeria. E-mail: codimeg@ogu.net. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10237 Palivos, Theodore; Scotese, Carol A. Fertility, growth and the financing of public education and health. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 9, No. 4, 1996. 415-28 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"This paper considers the implications of the financing of government services to children when fertility decisions are endogenously determined. In particular, it is shown that when the services are financed by taxation, the equilibrium outcome is biased away from the socially preferred result. The bias results in higher fertility rates and lower economic growth rates than the efficient social optimum. This arises because each household internalizes the benefits, but not the costs of the tax-financed services. We consider alternative methods of financing the public provision of services and find that a combination of taxation and vouchers can eliminate the bias in the equilibrium outcome."
Correspondence: C. A. Scotese, Indiana State University, Graduate School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy, Bloomington, IN 47405-1701. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10238 Pandey, Himanshu. On a probability model of open birth interval. Genus, Vol. 52, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1996. 39-45 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Ita; Fre.
"Many authors [have] pointed out that analysis of open birth interval (the period elapsed from the last live birth till the date of the survey) could be of great interest to study the process of human reproduction, because it directly exhibits changes in fertility due to recent use of contraception or incidence of secondary sterility. Moreover, open birth intervals may be chosen to study the linkage between fertility and migration. A probability model for describing variations in the length of open birth intervals has been applied separately to couples with both spouses present at home, and to couples with one spouse having migrated away. The model has then been applied to [survey data for India] to get an estimate of the risk of conception and of secondary sterility."
Correspondence: H. Pandey, Gorakhpur University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, 3 Professor Colony, Gorakhpur 273 009 Uttar Pradesh, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10239 Pantelides, Edith A. A century and a quarter of fertility change in Argentina: 1869 to the present. In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 345-58 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
Fertility change in Argentina is analyzed from 1869 to the present. There are sections on the beginning of the fertility transition, fertility differentials, mechanisms for fertility control, and recent trends in fertility. The author concludes that the decline in fertility began after 1895, and that the massive arrival of immigrants from countries with lower levels of fertility than Argentina had a significant effect on lowering levels of fertility, particularly in urban areas. Changes in age at marriage do not seem to have decisively affected fertility. There was a "baby boom" during the 1970s, causing a real increase in completed cohort fertility.
Correspondence: E. A. Pantelides, Centro de Estudios de Población, Casilla 4397, Correo Central, 1000 Buenos Aires, Argentina. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10240 Parr, Nicholas J. Changes in the factors affecting fertility in Ghana during the early stages of the fertility decline. Actuarial Studies and Demography Research Paper Series 3, No. 013-96, ISBN 1-86408-258-5. Aug 1996. 8 pp. Macquarie University, School of Economic and Financial Studies: Sydney, Australia. In Eng.
"This study uses data from the 1988 and the 1993 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys to analyze the changing importance both of the proximate determinants of fertility and of demographic, socio-economic, cultural, and location factors affecting fertility in this West African country. The rising level of contraceptive use is found to be the main proximate cause of the decline in fertility. A woman's age, education, religion, place of residence and child mortality experience are found to be important factors affecting fertility indirectly. The most significant change in Ghanian fertility has been the decline in fertility in urban areas outside the Greater Accra region."
Correspondence: Macquarie University, School of Economic and Financial Studies, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia. Author's E-mail: nparr@efs.mq.edu.au. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10241 Predojevic, Jelena. Fertility in the city of Belgrade. [Fertilitet stanovnistva grada Beograda.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 34, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1996. 73-87 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
"The main topic of this paper is the investigation of various aspects of fertility in the city of Belgrade [Yugoslavia] based on the available data from population censuses and vital statistics compiled in the period after the Second World War and particularly, between the two census years, 1971 and 1991. First, an analysis has been made of the movement in the number of live births and the crude birth rate....The author also discusses distribution of the communes by the crude birth rate."
Correspondence: J. Predojevic, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Institut Drustvenih Nauka, Centar za Demografska Istrazivanja, Narodnog fronta 45, 11000 Belgrade,Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10242 Rajaretnam, T. Proximate determinants of fertility decline in Athoor block of Tamil Nadu State in India, 1959-1985. Demography India, Vol. 25, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1996. 1-20 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper attempts to study the trend in fertility decline and its proximate determinants in Athoor block [Tamil Nadu, India] since the late 1950s....The significant feature of the rapid decline of fertility in Athoor block is that it has occurred despite the socioeconomic backwardness of the area....The observed small increase in age at marriage of females has contributed substantially to the decline of fertility in this block. However, the largest part of the decline in fertility of this block is to be attributed to the intensive family planning programme of this block which is believed to have induced a desire for smaller family size and wider use of family planning methods among couples."
Correspondence: T. Rajaretnam, JSS Institute of Economic Research, Vidyagiri, Dharwad 580 004, Karnataka, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10243 Rasevic, Mirjana. Female fertility, by population censuses. Yugoslav Survey, Vol. 36, No. 3, 1995. 3-22 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Eng.
"Consideration will be given in this paper to the number of live-born children by female age groups according to [Yugoslav] population census results. This methodological approach makes it possible to supplement the results of the analyses based on annual reports on the number of births, and thereby to confirm and possibly extend the findings about the level and properties of fertility of the Yugoslav population and its subpopulations."
Correspondence: M. Rasevic, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Institut Drustvenih Nauka, Centar za Demografska Istrazivanja, Narodnog fronta 45, 11000 Belgrade,Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

63:10244 Renne, Elisha P. Shifting boundaries of fertility change in Southwestern Nigeria. Health Transition Review, Vol. 6, Suppl., 1996. 169-90 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"Anthropologists and demographers rely on distinctive methodologies and forms of evidence even while they share a common interest in explaining fertility change. This paper proposes a cultural anthropological approach that focuses on the process whereby meanings associated with practices and things are reinterpreted over time. Using the image of shifting boundaries of kinship relations, it examines changing interpretations of three fundamental aspects of social life--family land, marriage, and foster parenthood--in the Ekiti area of Southwestern Nigeria which suggest an attenuation of the mutual obligations of extended kin. While these reinterpretations have moral associations that legitimate practices supporting fertility decline, political and economic uncertainty may counter this process."
Correspondence: E. P. Renne, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10245 Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Brewster, Karin L. Childrearing and fertility. In: Fertility in the United States: new patterns, new theories, edited by John B. Casterline, Ronald D. Lee, and Karen A. Foote. Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, Suppl., 1996. 258-89 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"We have argued that variation in the degree of role incompatibility experienced by working mothers may partially explain the diversity in fertility levels and trends across advanced industrial economies. In making this argument, we have emphasized the potential fertility-enhancing effects of changes in the social organization of work and childcare arrangements. We contend, in other words, that insofar as women's participation in the paid labor force acts to constrain fertility, any easing of the conflict between work responsibilities and childrearing will lead to an increase in fertility, other things being equal....We have addressed a number of variables likely to influence the extent to which the mother and worker roles are incompatible. Our review suggests that childcare arrangements may play a pivotal role in mediating the relationship between work and fertility."
Correspondence: R. R. Rindfuss, University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center, University Square, CB 8120, 124 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10246 Rodríguez, Germán. The spacing and limiting components of the fertility transition in Latin America. In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 27-47 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In this chapter we present the results of an analysis of trends in marital fertility within categories of key socio-economic factors using data from six Latin American countries: Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Trinidad and Tobago. These countries were selected for analysis because they have completed high quality surveys for two points in time, as part of the WFS and the DHS programmes....The socio-economic factors selected for analysis are three: type of place of residence, wife's education, and husband's occupation....The results of our analysis reveal the presence of remarkable regularities in the process of fertility transition in the six countries analysed, in spite of their diversity. In all social strata where fertility has started to decline the indices of spacing and limiting seem to have followed the same broad but well-defined paths over time....The general trends are consistent with a simple process of social diffusion...."
Correspondence: G. Rodríguez, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10247 Roy, T. K.; Parasuraman, Sulabha. Fertility in India: dynamics and prospects for future decline. Population Research Centre Demographic Reports, No. 21, 1996. 37 pp. University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences: Groningen, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The study, based on National Family Health Survey [data], reveals substantial variation in fertility in India among the different regions. Although the variations in fertility depend on the educational composition of women, they persist even among women of a specific education group. Such a variation in fertility arises due to the residual level of demand for children and infant mortality. [The authors suggest that] better conditions of living, greater media exposure among women and strengthening of the programme (referring mainly to utilization of MCH services) will reduce the residual levels of demand for children and infant mortality and hence can accelerate the decline in fertility."
Correspondence: University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Population Research Centre, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands. E-mail: FACULTY@FRW.RUG.NL. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10248 Schoen, Robert; Kim, Young J.; Nathanson, Constance A.; Fields, Jason; Astone, Nan M. Why do Americans want children? Johns Hopkins Population Center Papers on Population, No. 96-09, Aug 1996. 33, [9] pp. Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Department of Population Dynamics: Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"Prevailing theories of fertility behavior do not explain why fertility has not fallen to zero in industrialized countries. Extending Coleman's concept of social capital, we argue that the social resource value of children is an important factor motivating childbearing. Data for the U.S. from the 1987-88 National Survey of Families and Households are used to test hypotheses regarding how the social resource value of children, the economic costs of children, the career impact of children, and attitudes toward childlessness influence fertility intentions. The social resource value of children emerges as a powerful predictor of fertility intentions."
Correspondence: Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Department of Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10249 Schweizer, Urs. Endogenous fertility and the Henry George Theorem. Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 61, No. 2, Aug 1996. 209-28 pp. Lausanne, Switzerland. In Eng.
"Models of endogenous demographic change deal with population size as an additional object of the welfare analysis. In these models the overlapping-generations (OLG) model serves as the basic framework. In club theory, too, population size is treated as an endogenous variable. In local public goods (LPG) models, the so-called Henry George Theorem, which requires local public expenditures to be financed by a 100% tax on aggregate land rent, is known as a (first-order) condition for club efficiency. The present paper establishes and exploits an isomorphism between steady states of the OLG model and allocations of the LPG model. The paper revisits Samuelson's fallacy concerning his goldenest golden rule and it explores institutional arrangements that sustain the optimum growth of population."
Correspondence: U. Schweizer, University of Bonn, Department of Economics, Adenaueralle 24, 53113 Bonn, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

63:10250 Sugino, Motosuke. A child as public goods: in view of the theory of socioeconomics. Jinkogaku Kenkyu/Journal of Population Studies, No. 19, May 1996. 19-27 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
"There is a rising crisis-consciousness in Japan that the decline of fertility rates may result in retarding a healthy social development....The study was done...to decide whether it was feasible to regard a child as public goods or social goods instead of private goods as in the past....In Japan, if the domestic household market principle can decide the number of children for each family to have, there may be a chance of not fulfilling the adequate numbers of children needed for the society."
Location: Princeton University Library (Gest).

63:10251 Sushama, P. N. Transition from high to replacement-level fertility in a Kerala village. Health Transition Review, Vol. 6, Suppl., 1996. 115-36 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper uses a micro-approach to examine the motivation and processes of rapid fertility decline in a Kerala village [in India]. Fertility declined in the village substantially during the 1970s and continued to decline to reach replacement level at the time of study. The proximate determinants are postponement of marriage and extensive use of contraceptives. However, the changes in these factors were the result of changing socioeconomic conditions. At the time of study the singulate age at marriage was 29 years for males and 23 years for females, higher than elsewhere in India. Delayed age at marriage was a combined effect of favourable attitudes to education and economic changes. Smaller families became advantageous because of decreasing agricultural opportunities, expanded education and mortality decline. Contraceptives were available with the implementation of the family planning program. Higher use of contraceptives can be attributed to favourable conditions resulting from socio-economic changes."
Correspondence: P. N. Sushama, B28 Quatab Insitutional Area, Tara Crescent, New Delhi 100 016, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10252 Szreter, Simon. Falling fertilities and changing sexualities in Europe since c. 1850: a comparative survey of national demographic patterns. Working Papers in Demography, No. 62, 1996. 35 pp. Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Department of Demography: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"The aim of this paper is to examine comparative national trends of fertility change in Europe since the mid-nineteenth century or a means of assessing patterns of difference in sexual cultures. Can there be a demography of sexuality? The Princeton European Fertility Project produced a set of comparative national indices tracking changing levels of marital fertility, non-marital fertility, and proportions of women marrying, c.1850-1980. Comparison of these indices...shows that...the relationship between marital fertility, proportions marrying, and non-marital fertility...exhibited a number of distinctive patterns....On the basis of the demographic evidence presented here, a typology of sexual cultures is suggested for the countries of Europe, showing in many cases remarkable forms of persistence through adaption over the last two centuries."
Correspondence: Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Department of Demography, G.P.O. 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10253 Tambashe, B. Oleko; Shapiro, David. Family background and early life course transitions in Kinshasa. Journal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 58, No. 4, Nov 1996. 1,029-37 pp. Minneapolis, Minnesota. In Eng.
"Drawing on a sample of approximately 2,400 women aged 13-49 surveyed in Kinshasa, Zaire, in 1990, this article examines the impact of aspects of a woman's family background on transitions to sexual activity, marriage, and motherhood. We document how parental education, parental survival status, the number of siblings, and the type of place where a woman grew up are important for these transitions to adult roles. Our findings suggest that continued increases in educational levels should contribute to delays in these life course transitions and ultimately to some reductions in fertility."
Correspondence: B. O. Tambashe, Tulane University, 1400 Canal Street, Suite 2200, New Orleans, LA 70112-2737. E-mail: otambas1@mailhost.tcs.tulane.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10254 Thomson, Elizabeth; Hoem, Jan M. Couple childbearing plans and births in Sweden. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 113, ISBN 91-7820-146-2. Oct 1996. 17 pp. Stockholm University, Demography Unit: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"We have used data from a nationally representative sample of Swedish couples to estimate effects of partners' childbearing plans on the rate of second and higher-order births. Among couples in their active childbearing years, only 16 percent expressed conflicting plans for another child, but an additional 25 percent expressed different levels of certainty about their plans....Both men and women exerted veto-power over the birth of a child. When men were willing to have a child, however, the woman's certainty about her plans had a stronger effect than did the man's certainty....We discuss the findings in the context of Sweden's public supports for gender equality and for parenthood, and argue for the collection of partner data in family or fertility surveys."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1996 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: Stockholm University, Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10255 Toga, Teshome; Chaudhury, Rafiqul H. Child survival and fertility performance in rural Ethiopia: is there any relationship? Population and Development Bulletin, Vol. 2, No. 1, Mar 1994. 11-26 pp. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In Eng.
"The subject matter of the present investigations is to explore the relationship, if any, between child survival status and fertility behaviour in the high fertility and mortality settings of rural Ethiopia. In other words, the purpose of this research is to examine whether the fertility performance varies between women with and without child loss experience, holding other factors such as age, parity and literacy status constant."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10256 Tórrez Pinto, Hugo. Bolivia: the social and geographic context of trends in fertility. In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 359-72 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
Patterns of fertility in Bolivia are analyzed over the past 15 to 20 years using data from the 1976 census and recent surveys, including the 1989 National Demographic and Health Survey. The author concludes that, although overall fertility declined in the 12 to 15 years before 1988, this decline was confined to urban areas; fertility remained high in rural areas, and in some cases actually increased in response to high rates of infant mortality. The author also notes that Bolivia's extreme differences in income distribution are associated with differentials in fertility, and that fertility levels, particularly among the poor, are likely to remain high while these inequalities persist.
Correspondence: H. Tórrez Pinto, Ministerio de Desarrollo Sostenible, Dirección de Políticas de Población, La Paz, Bolivia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10257 Udry, J. Richard. Biosocial models of low-fertility societies. In: Fertility in the United States: new patterns, new theories, edited by John B. Casterline, Ronald D. Lee, and Karen A. Foote. Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, Suppl., 1996. 325-36 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article suggests how theoretical biosocial models may give insight into fertility-related processes in modern, permissive societies....Low-fertility societies provide wide behavior choice. Where behavior choice is broad and opportunities are egalitarian, biological variables, reflecting natural differences in behavioral predispositions, explain increasing variation in behavior. Application of this principle to demographic research suggests that, increasingly, gendered behavior, fertility, contraception, abortion, nuptiality, occupational choice, and other behaviors of interest to demographers will be influenced by biological choice. But the influence of these processes will be invisible in research guided by traditional social science theories and executed with traditional social science research designs. Research designs are already available that are appropriate for incorporating biological data collection into survey research."
Correspondence: J. R. Udry, University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center, University Square, CB 8120, 124 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10258 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Latin American fertility, 1950-2050. [América Latina fecundidad, 1950-2050.] Boletín Demográfico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 29, No. 58, Pub. Order No. LC/DEM/G.163. Jul 1996. 151 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
"This Demographic Bulletin presents updated information on fertility based on the estimates and projections made in the 20 Latin American countries for the period 1950-2050. It includes age-specific fertility rates, total fertility rates, gross and net reproduction rates and other related indicators, such as population projections based on three hypotheses [of] future trends in fertility; absolute values for population growth, births and deaths; and birth, death and migration rates."
Correspondence: UN Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10259 van de Kaa, Dirk J. Anchored narratives: the story and findings of half a century of research into the determinants of fertility. Population Studies, Vol. 50, No. 3, Nov 1996. 389-432 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper reviews half a century of research into the determinants of fertility. It is argued that the quest for the determinants of fertility behaviour and change during that period can best be interpreted as the development of a series of sub-narratives from different disciplinary perspectives and orientations. These are normally based upon the initial narrative of the demographic transition and usually take the form of a verbal theory illustrated by a `box and arrow' diagram. On occasions formalization has been attempted....There is every reason to believe that the research process identified will continue and will lead to a further accumulation of knowledge. In fact, all important variables have probably already been identified. That it will, ultimately, lead to a single, consolidated narrative fully satisfactory for all settings and for all time is, however, highly unlikely."
Correspondence: D. J. van de Kaa, Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research, Laan van Nieuw Oost Indie 131, 2539 BM The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10260 Westoff, Charles F.; Moreno, Lorenzo. Reproductive intentions and fertility in Latin America. In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 242-51 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In this chapter we analyse reproductive preferences at three levels. The first objective is to examine family-size norms and to determine whether there has been any change in the number of children considered ideal in various Latin American populations. We then focus on the extent of unwanted fertility, from which we can deduce the level of fertility that would prevail if all births were wanted. Finally, we turn our attention to the reproductive intentions of the women of these populations, offer some fertility forecasts based on these intentions, and review trends and differentials in these preferences over recent years." Data are from the relevant WFS and DHS surveys.
Correspondence: C. F. Westoff, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10261 Xie, Weike; Wang, Shaoxian. A methodological study of fertility projection using fertility models and the conversion between cohort index and period index. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 8, No. 3, 1996. 315-25 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article discusses the methodology for and significance of building fertility models with complete, incomplete, or no fertility data. It holds for the first time that the non-least-square method in building Brass correlated fertility models (the Zeng Yi method) is superior to [the] least-square method and offers a rationale of this claim." The geographical focus is on China.
Correspondence: W. Xie, Beijing Medical University, Health Statistics and Medical Demographic Research Bureau, Xue Yuan Lu, Northern Suburb, Beijing 100083, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10262 Zhang, Erli; Chen, Jianli. A birth duration fertility model with consideration of contraception factors. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 8, No. 3, 1996. 327-34 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"In view of the special characteristics of family planning and contraceptive choices in China, this article introduces contraception factors into the fertility model of birth duration and establishes a fertility model that takes into consideration birth duration. The model may be used in...studying the influence of simulated contraception factors on the fertility level and the fertility model and in making predictions on the number of births."
Correspondence: E. Zhang, State Family Planning Commission, Planning and Statistics Department, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.2. Differential Fertility

Studies on differences in fertility patterns and levels in subgroups of a population. Also included are studies on age-specific fertility, such as teenage pregnancy.

63:10263 Crognier, E. Behavioral and environmental determinants of reproductive success in traditional Moroccan Berber groups. American Journal of Physical Anthropology, Vol. 100, No. 2, 1996. 181-90 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The reproductive histories of women aged 45-70 years from a homogeneous Berber population of South Morocco were sampled from three contrasting environments: a small town (n=75), villages in the lowlands (n=217), and villages in the highlands (n=128)....Path analysis confirms [differences among these populations in] reproductive behaviors and suggests the existence of mechanisms for controlling family size in town and in the rural lowlands, but not in the highlands. The estimates of survival function show significant differences among the three groups, the conditions for survival in the highlands being clearly less favorable. Rank tests of the association of survival data with several covariates indicate the association of survival data with vaccinations and with conditions of delivery. In spite of the lower rate of offspring survival, the highlander group would demonstrate a higher overall number of children reaching reproductive maturity, [due] to an extended reproductive span."
Correspondence: E. Crognier, Pavillion de Lanfant, 346 Route des Alpes, 13100 Aix-en-Provence, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10264 den Draak, Maaike; Hutter, Inge. Fertility in the Irish Republic: nurtured by Irish law and the Catholic Church. Population Research Centre Working Paper, No. 1996-6, Jun 1996. 21, [4] pp. University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Population Research Centre: Groningen, Netherlands. In Eng.
"During the last three decades Irish total fertility has been one of the highest in Europe....This article seeks an explanation for the long lasting high level of fertility in Ireland. Secondly, it discusses how Irish women were able--in a relatively short life span--to approach the low pattern of fertility that their European counterparts had established much earlier in the century. A model of fertility including proximate determinants and societal factors...as well as theoretical considerations on norms, rules and values and social change, are applied." The results show that the Catholic Church has had a strong impact on ideas and attitudes. "Irish Catholicism is a particularly puritanical and orthodox form of Catholicism....It is a state religion and is strongly intertwined with law, education and social services."
Correspondence: University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Population Research Centre, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands. E-mail: PRC@FRW.RUG.NL. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10265 Flórez, Carmen E. High-fertility groups in Colombia, 1990. [Los grupos de alta fecundidad en Colombia, 1990.] Desarrollo y Sociedad, Sep 1994. 9-52 pp. Bogotá, Colombia. In Spa.
The author identifies high-fertility groups in Colombia by geographic subregion and socioeconomic variables. Data are from the 1990 Demographic and Health Survey and the 1985 census. The impact of nuptiality, type of union, and contraceptive use is considered.
Correspondence: C. E. Flórez, Universidad de los Andes, Carrera 1, No. 18 A-70, Santa Fe de Bogotá, Colombia. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

63:10266 Forste, Renata; Tienda, Marta. What's behind racial and ethnic fertility differentials? In: Fertility in the United States: new patterns, new theories, edited by John B. Casterline, Ronald D. Lee, and Karen A. Foote. Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, Suppl., 1996. 109-33 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"In this article we briefly review and critique `first-generation' studies of racial and ethnic differences in fertility. We argue that residual approaches to variation in sexual and reproductive behavior have been a major roadblock to creative theorizing about the forces that generate fertility differentials among people of color. Subsequently, we review recent studies of family formation to identify behavioral differences that maintain, augment, or diminish fertility differentials along racial and ethnic lines. In particular, we focus on differences in the timing of first births, the marital context of childbearing, and completed family size. Second, based on insights from qualitative data drawn from the Social Opportunity Study...we propose several hypotheses about the social forces that undergird racial and ethnic fertility differences. Specifically, we analyze responses from unstructured interviews with parents from Chicago's inner city to illustrate differences in attitudes about nonmarital fertility; perceptions of links between parental supervision of children and the timing of births; views about the role and value of children in family life; and the meaning of marriage...."
Correspondence: R. Forste, Brigham Young University, Department of Sociology, Provo, UT 84602. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10267 Gupta, H. S.; Baghel, A. Fertility differentials in Madhya Pradesh, India. Population Geography, Vol. 16, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1994. 49-58 pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
"The present paper explains the fertility differentials among socio-cultural groups and regions in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh and examines the role of such factors as general and female literacy, age at marriage and infant mortality in determining the fertility levels. The study indicates that no single factor is of overwhelming importance. These factors in combination, as revealed by multivariate analysis, account for about 29 percent inter-district variation in fertility in the state."
Correspondence: H. S. Gupta, Pandit Ravishankar Shukla University, School of Studies in Geography, Raipur 492 010, Madhya Pradesh, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10268 Halli, S. S.; Dai, S. Y.; George, M. V.; Verma, R. B. P. Visible minority fertility in Canada, 1981-1986. Genus, Vol. 52, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1996. 181-9 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng.
"Visible minorities are one of the four designated employment equity groups in Canada which include women, aboriginal peoples, visible minorities, and persons with disabilities at work....As part of the data program for the employment equity groups, Statistics Canada developed population projections of visible minority groups for Canada and regions covering the period 1991-2016....To develop them, studies on the components of demographic change (fertility, mortality, and migration) were undertaken. The purpose of this paper is to summarize the methodology used to study the fertility of the various visible minority groups in Canada between 1981 and 1986 and present the main findings."
Correspondence: S. S. Halli, University of Manitoba, Department of Sociology, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 2N2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10269 Hirosima, Kiyosi; Mita, Fusami. An analysis on fertility by prefecture: 1980-1990. Institute of Population Problems Research Series, No. 284, Mar 31, 1995. 102 pp. Institute of Population Problems: Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
An analysis of differential fertility by province in Japan for the period 1980-1990 is presented. The focus is on marital fertility, and the authors propose a new measure, the ever-married total fertility rate, which takes into account age at marriage. Data are from the ninth National Fertility Survey, carried out in 1987, and the 1990 census. The authors conclude that "the lowest completed fertility in metropolitan prefectures is not due to the employment rate itself but due to the lowest proportion married and the lowest marital fertility among employed women. The reduced fertility, proportion married and marital fertility in those prefectures are assumably caused by the environment peculiar to metropolitan prefectures in respect to childbearing, childrearing and even marriage such as hard working condition, housing, childcare and child education."
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10270 Hjarnø, Jan. International migration, fertility, lifestyles, and social structure. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 33, 1996. 119-35 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"This paper has two aims. First, it calls attention to the neoracists, who exploit the results of demographic research for...propaganda. Second, it raises the question whether the subject matter of demography is the appropriate category to work with if demographers really want to make a substantial contribution to an understanding of social development. The presentation starts with neoracism and presents an example of how one Danish demographer has published strange research most pleasing to the neoracist way of thinking. Then a model for structural lifestyle analysis is presented....Finally, the model for structural lifestyle analysis [is] applied to a set of empirical data [for Denmark] on three groups of immigrants to demonstrate how we may gain new insight into the importance of certain lifestyles in economic development. In addition, we will see how specific lifestyles and rates of fertility may be related and cause the high rates of fertility in some of the new ethnic minorities...."
Correspondence: J. Hjarnø, Danish Centre for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Esbjerg, Denmark. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10271 Kalipeni, Ezekiel; Harrington, Luke. Regional variations of fertility in Malawi. Scandinavian Journal of Development Alternatives, Vol. 14, No. 1-2, Mar-Jun 1995. 222-47 pp. Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"This paper briefly examines the regional variations of fertility rates in Malawi between 1977 and 1987....The results of the analysis contained in this paper indicate that, at the regional and district levels, there is generally a weak relationship between fertility rates on the one hand and demographic/socioeconomic variables on the other hand. The explanation for this is twofold. First, the high levels of fertility across the districts of the country are largely due to deeply rooted traditions that encourage large family sizes. Second, the infusion of modernization has tended to weaken certain effective traditional norms that worked to lengthen child spacing between successive births. The non-existence of modern family planning techniques has meant rising fertility rates even among the highly educated women and those residing in urban areas."
Correspondence: E. Kalipeni, Colgate University, 13 Oak Drive, Hamilton, NY 13346. Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

63:10272 Maxim, Paul S. Estimating fertility differentials between immigrant and nonimmigrant women in Canada. Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 96-7, ISBN 0-7714-1948-1. Jun 1996. 26 pp. University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
"This paper focuses on the problem of estimating fertility differentials among Canadian born and foreign born women based on the census indicator of `children ever born'. Using the individual level public use file from the 1991 census, a series of models is estimated that examine the impact of women's place of birth and year of immigration on fertility, controlling for the woman's age and formal educational background....The substantive results indicate that the long standing pattern of immigrant women having lower fertility rates than Canadian born women may have reversed itself. Furthermore, significant heterogeneity exists among the fertility patterns of foreign born women, particularly when theoretically significant covariates are introduced into the models."
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10273 McDaniel, Antonio. Fertility and racial stratification. In: Fertility in the United States: new patterns, new theories, edited by John B. Casterline, Ronald D. Lee, and Karen A. Foote. Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, Suppl., 1996. 134-50 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article focuses on expanding the way in which racial differences are viewed in fertility research. First, I briefly outline three major perspectives on race: essentialism, assimilationism, and racial stratification. Second, I describe the racial differences in fertility and family formation from the racial stratification perspective. I then return to the three perspectives on race and comment on them, taking into consideration fertility and family formation. Finally, I make several suggestions concerning the future of fertility research in the United States."
Correspondence: A. McDaniel, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10274 Prada-Salas, Elena. The fertility transition and adolescent childbearing: the case of Colombia. In: The fertility transition in Latin America, edited by José M. Guzmán, Susheela Singh, Germán Rodríguez, and Edith A. Pantelides. 1996. 310-22 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The aim of this study is to examine the recent fertility behaviour of adolescents during the years of Colombia's demographic transition, especially in terms of educational levels; the consequences of early childbearing; the country's present situation compared with that of others in the Latin American region; and a possible future course of action for the coming years." Data are primarily taken from the 1986 Colombian Demographic and Health Survey.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10275 Ranjan, Alok. Age patterns of fertility in Madhya Pradesh. Population Geography, Vol. 16, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1994. 59-66 pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
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