Volume 63 - Number 1 - Spring 1997

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

63:10063 Kovacsics, József. Population history of Hungary mirrored by the conference-series (896-1870). [Magyarország népességtörténete a konferencia-sorozat tükrében (896-1870).] Demográfia, Vol. 39, No. 2-3, 1996. 145-65 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun.
This paper examines population trends in Hungary from around the year 900 to 1870. It is based on a review of the published literature.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10064 Wright, Russell O. A twentieth-century history of United States population. ISBN 0-8108-3182-1. LC 96-11410. 1996. xx, 203 pp. Scarecrow Press: Lanham, Maryland/Folkestone, England. In Eng.
This study examines population changes in the United States from 1900 to 1990 and projects future trends to the years 2000 and 2050. The author focuses on changes at the state and city level, examining how these changes compare to national trends and identifying which cities and states grew faster and slower than the national average. Attention is given both to the effect of modern communication and transportation systems on population distribution and to the demographic impact of large-scale immigration.
Correspondence: Scarecrow Press, 4720 Boston Way, Lanham, MD 20706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

63:10065 Ales, Milan. Population development in the Czech Republic in 1995 (from the annual report of the Czech Statistical Office). [Populacní vývoj v Ceské Republice v roce 1995 (Z rocní zprávy Ceského statistického úradu).] Demografie, Vol. 38, No. 4, 1996. 233-47 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
The author reviews population trends in the Czech Republic in 1995. Tables and text provide data on total fertility rate, natural increase, immigration, demographic aging, marriage, life expectancy, infant and postneonatal mortality, spatial distribution, and sex distribution.
Correspondence: M. Ales, Federalni Statistický Urad, Sokolovska 142, 18613 Prague 8, Czech Republic. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10066 Byerly, Edwin; Deardorff, Kevin. National and state population estimates: 1990 to 1994. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1127, Jul 1995. xv, 70, [1] pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report represents a synthesis of three previously separate series P25 reports: 1. An annual State estimates report, with age-sex detail and components of population change; 2. An annual national level report with age-race-sex-Hispanic origin detail; [and] 3. A monthly national `boilerplate' report showing monthly estimates for three population universes. This report begins with a brief section highlighting 1990 to 1994 population trends....The second section contains estimates methodology (with appendixes), followed by a third section of detailed tables of U.S., region, division, and State population estimates for 1990 to 1994."
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10067 Kerjosse, Roselyne; Tamby, Irène. The demographic situation in 1994: population changes. [La situation démographique en 1994: mouvement de la population.] Démographie-Société, No. 51-52, ISBN 2-11-066507-6. Nov 1996. 264 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is a review of demographic trends in France in 1994. The report consists primarily of statistical data organized into sections on population, marriages, divorces, legitimizations of children born outside marriage, births, induced abortions, deaths, monthly statistics, migrations, departmental and regional statistics, and international statistics. The French vital statistics system is described in an appendix, and the methodology used to calculate the various rates is presented.
Correspondence: Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10068 Lévy, Michel L. The population of France in 1996. [La population de la France en 1996.] Population et Sociétés, No. 322, Mar 1997. [4] pp. Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is a review of the demographic situation in France in 1996. Particular attention is given to the continuing rise in age at marriage and age at which women have children, the impact of recent changes in the tax laws on marriage patterns, and the relative impact of natural increase and immigration on population growth.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10069 Monnier, Alain; de Guibert-Lantoine, Catherine. The current demographic situation: Europe and other developed countries overseas. [La conjoncture démographique: l'Europe et les pays développés d'outre-mer.] Population, Vol. 51, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1996. 1,005-30 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This is a review of current demographic trends in the developed countries of the world. There are sections on natural increase, fertility, marriage and divorce, abortion, and mortality. Data are from official national sources, the Council of Europe, and Eurostat.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10070 Smith, Stanley K. Demography of disaster: population estimates after hurricane Andrew. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 15, No. 5-6, Dec 1996. 459-77 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Hurricane Andrew blasted through the southern tip of Florida in August 1992, damaging or destroying tens of thousands of homes and forcing hundreds of thousands of persons to move at least temporarily to different places of residence. The hurricane not only disrupted the lives of many Floridians, but destroyed the statistical basis for producing local population estimates in South Florida as well. These estimates are used for many types of decision-making, from the distribution of state revenue-sharing dollars to choosing sites for fast-food restaurants. This article describes the estimation problems created by the hurricane and how those problems were resolved through the use of existing data sources and the collection of new types of data. It closes with a discussion of several conceptual, methodological and procedural issues that will have to be faced in virtually any attempt to estimate the demographic consequences of natural disasters."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1994 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: S. K. Smith, University of Florida, Bureau of Economics and Business Research, 221 Matherly Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

63:10071 Ales, Milan; Simek, Miroslav. Population projection for the Czech Republic, 1995-2020. [Projekce obyvatelstva Ceské republiky, 1995-2020.] Demografie, Vol. 38, No. 1, 1996. 1-17 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
"In Autumn 1995 the Czech Statistical Office published the new population prognosis until the year 2020....The change of population climate connected with the over-all change of economic and social conditions in the process of social transformation appears to be profound and fundamental. It is therefore unlikely that there would occur a turn in the near future and that...natality would grow...again to a...significant extent."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10072 Andreev, Evgeni; Scherbov, Sergei; Willekens, Frans. The population of Russia: fewer and older. Demographic scenarios for Russia and its regions. Population Research Centre Demographic Reports, No. 22, 1997. 242 pp. University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences: Groningen, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The paper presents the first ever demographic scenarios for the regions of Russia. Scenarios are developed for 49 oblasts (regions), 6 krays (territories), 21 republics, 1 autonomous oblast and two national cities, Moscow and St. Petersburg. Five scenarios are considered: two optimistic scenarios, two medium scenarios and one pessimistic scenario....The main results are presented graphically for the 79 areas. Detailed results and a discussion of the differences between the scenarios are presented for 11 economic-geographic regions." The main conclusions are that the population decline will continue in all scenarios, although in-migration will mitigate some of its effects. The expected decline over the period 1995-2025 ranges from 2 million in an optimistic scenario to 32 million in a pessimistic scenario. Demographic aging will reach unprecedented levels, and by 2025, Russia will have 20 to 50 percent fewer children than today. The spatial redistribution of the population away from Siberia to European Russia is likely to continue.
Correspondence: University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Population Research Centre, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands. E-mail: FACULTY@FRW.RUG.NL. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10073 Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos [INDEC] (Buenos Aires, Argentina); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Projections of the urban and rural population and of the economically active population, 1990-2025. [Proyección de la población urbana y rural y de la población economicamente activa, 1990-2025.] Serie Análisis Demográfico, No. 1, 1995. 66 pp. Buenos Aires, Argentina. In Spa.
This report contains population projections for Argentina up to the year 2025. The projections are presented separately for the rural and urban population by age and sex, and for the labor force by rural and urban residence, sex, and age.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, Avenida Presidente Julio A. Roca 609, 1067 Buenos Aires, Argentina. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10074 Guillemot, Danielle; Gubian, Alain; Marioni, Pierre; Brondel, Daniel; Lincot, Liliane. Projections of the economically active population, 1995-2040. [Projections de population active 1995-2040.] INSEE Résultats: Emploi-Revenus, No. 516, ISBN 2-11-066519-X. Jan 1997. 91 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Labor force projections are presented for France up to the year 2040. Attention is given to the methodological aspects of preparing the projections. The projections are given separately by age and sex.
Correspondence: Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10075 IBIS Business Information (Melbourne, Australia). Australian households in the 21st century. IBIS Business Paper, May 1995. iv, 22 pp. Melbourne, Australia. In Eng.
Using primarily a business perspective, this report looks at probable future trends in the Australian population, particularly as they affect households. Topics examined include population growth, ethnicity and immigration, spatial distribution, age structure, housing and home ownership, and household characteristics.
Correspondence: IBIS Business Information, 1 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10076 Lutz, Wolfgang. The future population of the world. What can we assume today? Rev. ed. ISBN 1-85383-344-4. 1996. xxii, 500 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
This book contains 17 studies by various authors on aspects of the probable growth of the world's population over the next 100 years. "This revised and updated version incorporates completely new scenario projections based on updated starting values and revised assumptions, plus several methodological improvements. It also contains the best currently available information on global trends in AIDS mortality and the first ever fully probabilistic world population projections. The projections, given up to 2100, add important additional features to those of the UN and the World Bank: they show the impacts of alternative assumptions for all three components (mortality and migration, as well as fertility); they explicitly take into account possible environmental limits to growth; and, for the first time, they define confidence levels for global populations."
For the first edition, published in 1994, see 61:20085.
Correspondence: Earthscan Publications, 120 Pentonville Road, London N1 9JN, England. E-mail: earthinfo@earthscan.co.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10077 Mathews, Georges. The demographic future of the regions: a critical analysis and the implications of the most recent population projections of the Quebec Statistics Bureau. [L'avenir démographique des régions: analyse critique et implications des plus récentes perspectives démographiques du BSQ.] Recherches Sociographiques, Vol. 37, No. 3, Sep-Dec 1996. 411-37, 609 pp. Quebec, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The most recent population projections for the regions of the Canadian province of Quebec are presented for the period up to 2016. The projections indicate that the differences between the Montreal region and the rest of the province will increase over time. Although only four outlying regions will experience actual population declines in this period, the demographic situation appears to be serious in many regions apart from Montreal, and declines in population size may be anticipated.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10078 McKibben, Jerome N. The impact of policy changes on forecasting for school districts. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 15, No. 5-6, Dec 1996. 527-36 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper describes a case study in which a professional demographic consulting team was brought in to aid in the development of a long-term building and reorganization plan for an Indiana school district. Just prior to the start of this process, a state-level policy was promulgated that changed the age of eligibility for entering kindergarten in such a manner that it temporarily produced the appearance of an increase in the number of kindergartners in districts throughout Indiana....Having uncovered both the policy and its effect, the consultants produced an enrollment forecast that was not confounded by the artificial appearance of growth. This forecast showed much less growth than expected by the district's officials and residents, both of whom had been conditioned to expect future enrollment growth by not only the policy effect but by local media reports on the national `Baby Boomlet', a phenomenon not actually occurring in their district. The demographers successfully defended their forecast in the face of strong initial disbelief as well as outright opposition by the residents."
Correspondence: J. N. McKibben, University of Southern Mississippi, Department of Sociology, Box 5074, Hattiesburg, MS 39402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10079 Opitz, Wolfgang; Nelson, Harold. Short-term, population-based forecasting in the public sector: a dynamic caseload simulation model. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 15, No. 5-6, Dec 1996. 549-63 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Development of a new `population-based' method to solve the problem of forecasting income assistance caseloads for the state of Washington represents yet another effort in which the demographic perspective helps solve two major public-policy problems: (1) providing accurate and useful forecasts of caseloads, and (2) creating a dynamic model with which to analyze alternative policy proposals....Population-based forecasting, as reported here, is really quite a novel approach to forecasting public assistance caseloads....Characteristics associated with entries and exits can be used to develop dynamic models of current and future caseload changes. For budgeting purposes, these models can be readily translated into average annual caseload levels and can be directly used to examine policy alternatives and programmatic options. Entry and exit rates and volumes can be related to historical, current, and anticipated changes in economic, social, and programmatic conditions to develop models of caseload behavior, and ultimately, forecasts of caseload levels that are used for budget development."
Correspondence: W. Opitz, Washington State Department of Social and Health Services, Budget Division, P.O. Box 45843, Olympia, WA 98504-5843. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10080 Penev, Goran; Sekulic, Ljiljana; Cicovic, Dragoljupka. Population projections of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, 1991-2021. [Projektsije stanovnistva Savezne Republike Jugoslavije, 1991-2021.] ISBN 86-7479-030-5. 1996. 311 pp. Savezni Zavod za Statistiku: Belgrade, Yugoslavia; Univerzitet u Beogradu, Institut Drustvenih Nauka, Centar za Demografska Istrazivanja: Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Eng; Scc.
Population projections are presented for Yugoslavia, its republics (Serbia and Montenegro), and the provinces (Montenegro, Central Serbia, Vojvodina, and Kosovo-Metohija) by age and sex up to the year 2021. Ten alternative variants are presented, based on various assumptions concerning fertility, mortality, and migration.
Correspondence: Savezni Zavod za Statistiku, Kneza Milosa 20, P.O. Box 203, 11000 Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10081 Tayman, Jeff. Forecasting, growth management and public policy decision making. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 15, No. 5-6, Dec 1996. 491-508 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper's objective is to describe the interplay between forecasting and decision making. It shows how a forecast helped shape public policy and, in turn, how public policy influenced a forecast, within the context of the growth management effort underway in the San Diego region. The forecast identified economic challenges and land use issues facing the region and public policy actions were developed to address them. Normative forecasting best describes the relationship between the forecast and these public policy decisions. This `active' approach to forecasting involves first deciding what future outcome is desirable and, then, designing policies and actions to achieve these outcomes."
Correspondence: J. Tayman, San Diego Association of Governments, 401 B Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA 92101. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10082 Tayman, Jeff; Swanson, David A. On the utility of population forecasts. Demography, Vol. 33, No. 4, Nov 1996. 523-8 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"Many customers demand population forecasts, particularly for small areas. Although the forecast evaluation literature is extensive, it is dominated by a focus on accuracy. We go beyond accuracy by examining the concept of forecast utility in an evaluation of a sample of 2,709 [U.S.] counties and census tracts. We find that forecasters provide `value-added' knowledge for areas experiencing rapid change or areas with relatively large populations. For other areas, reduced value is more common than added value. Our results suggest that new forecasting strategies and methods such as composite modeling may substantially improve forecast utility."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1995 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: J. Tayman, San Diego Association of Governments, 401 B Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA 92101. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10083 van Hoorn, Willem; de Beer, Joop; van Poppel, Frans. Future population in the European Economic Area: the impact of age structure, fertility, mortality and migration. In: Démographie: analyse et synthèse. Causes et conséquences des évolutions démographiques, edited by Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin, and Guillaume Wunsch. Aug 1996. 367-88 pp. Centre Français sur la Population et le Développement [CEPED]: Paris, France; Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche: Rome, Italy. In Eng.
"This paper examines the relative contribution of [the relevant demographic] factors to future changes in the population of the countries of the European Economic Area (EEA), i.e. the fifteen countries of the European Union plus Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. Section 2 describes five population scenarios for the countries of the EEA based on three sets of assumptions on future fertility, mortality and migration. Section 3 gives a...concise description of these assumptions. Section 4 presents some main results of the five population scenarios. Section 5 examines the impact of the current age structure on the future demographic development. Section 6 assesses the impact of future fertility, mortality and migration on the size and age structure of the population. Finally section 7 summarizes the main conclusions."
Correspondence: W. van Hoorn, Statistics Netherlands, Department of Population, P.O. Box 4000, 2270 JM Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

63:10084 Burdack, Joachim. Regional demographic trends in France: an examination at the level of employment zones. [Regionale Bevölkerungsentwicklung in Frankreich: eine Untersuchung auf der Ebene der zones d'emploi.] Europa Regional, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1995. 25-37, 41, 43 pp. Leipzig, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre; Rus.
"The paper studies the regional demographic trends in France from 1968 to 1990....The study follows two main objectives: (1) Analysis of the main regional migration and population trends over the three census periods from 1968 to 1990. (2) Analysis of the growth trends of different types of regions on the basis of typifying the `zones d'emploi' (labour market regions) according to economic criteria and settlement structure criteria. The large-scale patterns of the population and migration trends seem to be relatively stable in comparison to the massive change in the general economic and political framework in France and Western Europe....The different region types, however, show more distinct changes."
Correspondence: J. Burdack, Institut für Länderkunde, Bereich Regionale Geographie Europas, 04329 Leipzig, Germany. Location: New York Public Library, New York, NY.

63:10085 Hong Kong. Census and Statistics Department (Hong Kong). Demographic trends in Hong Kong 1986-1995. Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, Oct 1996. 1-19 pp. Hong Kong. In Eng; Chi.
Population trends in Hong Kong for the period from 1986 to 1995 are described. There are sections on population size and growth, age structure, sex structure, fertility, mortality, life expectancy, and marriage.
Correspondence: Census and Statistics Department, 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10086 Italy. Istituto Nazionale di Statistica [ISTAT] (Rome, Italy). The resident population of the communes. The censuses from 1861 to 1991: territorial divisions as of October 20, 1991. [Popolazione residente dei comuni. Censimenti dal 1861 al 1991: circoscrizioni territoriali al 20 ottobre 1991.] LC 95-219465. 1994. 484 pp. Rome, Italy. In Ita.
Data are presented on the resident population of the communes of Italy from 1861 to 1991. The data are adjusted, where necessary, to the administrative divisions existing on October 20, 1991. The data presented in this volume are also available on floppy disk.
Correspondence: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, Via Cesare Balbo 11a, 00184 Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:10087 Juhola, Katariina; Juhola, Martti. Malthusian parameter on the Finnish population in the 20th century. International Journal of Bio-Medical Computing, Vol. 41, No. 1, 1996. 5-11 pp. Limerick, Ireland. In Eng.
"We were interested in studying a demographic indicator, the Malthusian parameter which had not been investigated earlier in the case of the Finnish population. We computed the Malthusian parameter with a known renewal equation, which is, as usual, approximated on discrete data by using normal distribution, on the Finnish population in the 20th century....In addition to this parameter we computed the gross and net reproduction rates, the total fertility index, and the mean and variance age of females at child-bearing. The Malthusian parameter seems to be a rather good means of characterizing the development of the population. If the parameter is positive for long enough, the population tends to grow. If it is negative, as has been the case in Finland since 1969, the population starts to diminish sooner or later."
Correspondence: M. Juhola, University of Kuopio, Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, P.O. Box 1627, 70211 Kuopio, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1997, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.