Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.
Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.
63:10063 Kovacsics, József.
Population history of Hungary mirrored by the conference-series
(896-1870). [Magyarország
népességtörténete a konferencia-sorozat
tükrében (896-1870).] Demográfia, Vol. 39, No. 2-3,
1996. 145-65 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun.
This paper examines
population trends in Hungary from around the year 900 to 1870. It is
based on a review of the published literature.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:10064 Wright, Russell O. A
twentieth-century history of United States population. ISBN
0-8108-3182-1. LC 96-11410. 1996. xx, 203 pp. Scarecrow Press: Lanham,
Maryland/Folkestone, England. In Eng.
This study examines
population changes in the United States from 1900 to 1990 and projects
future trends to the years 2000 and 2050. The author focuses on changes
at the state and city level, examining how these changes compare to
national trends and identifying which cities and states grew faster and
slower than the national average. Attention is given both to the effect
of modern communication and transportation systems on population
distribution and to the demographic impact of large-scale
immigration.
Correspondence: Scarecrow Press, 4720 Boston
Way, Lanham, MD 20706. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.
63:10065 Ales, Milan. Population
development in the Czech Republic in 1995 (from the annual report of
the Czech Statistical Office). [Populacní vývoj v
Ceské Republice v roce 1995 (Z rocní zprávy
Ceského statistického úradu).] Demografie, Vol.
38, No. 4, 1996. 233-47 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Cze. with sum.
in Eng.
The author reviews population trends in the Czech Republic
in 1995. Tables and text provide data on total fertility rate, natural
increase, immigration, demographic aging, marriage, life expectancy,
infant and postneonatal mortality, spatial distribution, and sex
distribution.
Correspondence: M. Ales, Federalni
Statistický Urad, Sokolovska 142, 18613 Prague 8, Czech
Republic. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:10066 Byerly, Edwin; Deardorff,
Kevin. National and state population estimates: 1990 to
1994. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1127, Jul 1995.
xv, 70, [1] pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report represents a synthesis of three previously
separate series P25 reports: 1. An annual State estimates report, with
age-sex detail and components of population change; 2. An annual
national level report with age-race-sex-Hispanic origin detail; [and]
3. A monthly national `boilerplate' report showing monthly estimates
for three population universes. This report begins with a brief section
highlighting 1990 to 1994 population trends....The second section
contains estimates methodology (with appendixes), followed by a third
section of detailed tables of U.S., region, division, and State
population estimates for 1990 to 1994."
Correspondence:
U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:10067 Kerjosse, Roselyne; Tamby,
Irène. The demographic situation in 1994:
population changes. [La situation démographique en 1994:
mouvement de la population.] Démographie-Société,
No. 51-52, ISBN 2-11-066507-6. Nov 1996. 264 pp. Institut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In
Fre.
This is a review of demographic trends in France in 1994. The
report consists primarily of statistical data organized into sections
on population, marriages, divorces, legitimizations of children born
outside marriage, births, induced abortions, deaths, monthly
statistics, migrations, departmental and regional statistics, and
international statistics. The French vital statistics system is
described in an appendix, and the methodology used to calculate the
various rates is presented.
Correspondence: Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard
Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:10068 Lévy, Michel L.
The population of France in 1996. [La population de la France
en 1996.] Population et Sociétés, No. 322, Mar 1997. [4]
pp. Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris,
France. In Fre.
This is a review of the demographic situation in
France in 1996. Particular attention is given to the continuing rise in
age at marriage and age at which women have children, the impact of
recent changes in the tax laws on marriage patterns, and the relative
impact of natural increase and immigration on population
growth.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes
Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14,
France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
63:10069 Monnier, Alain; de Guibert-Lantoine,
Catherine. The current demographic situation: Europe and
other developed countries overseas. [La conjoncture
démographique: l'Europe et les pays développés
d'outre-mer.] Population, Vol. 51, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1996. 1,005-30 pp.
Paris, France. In Fre.
This is a review of current demographic
trends in the developed countries of the world. There are sections on
natural increase, fertility, marriage and divorce, abortion, and
mortality. Data are from official national sources, the Council of
Europe, and Eurostat.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
63:10070 Smith, Stanley K.
Demography of disaster: population estimates after hurricane
Andrew. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 15, No. 5-6,
Dec 1996. 459-77 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Hurricane Andrew blasted through the southern tip of Florida
in August 1992, damaging or destroying tens of thousands of homes and
forcing hundreds of thousands of persons to move at least temporarily
to different places of residence. The hurricane not only disrupted the
lives of many Floridians, but destroyed the statistical basis for
producing local population estimates in South Florida as well. These
estimates are used for many types of decision-making, from the
distribution of state revenue-sharing dollars to choosing sites for
fast-food restaurants. This article describes the estimation problems
created by the hurricane and how those problems were resolved through
the use of existing data sources and the collection of new types of
data. It closes with a discussion of several conceptual, methodological
and procedural issues that will have to be faced in virtually any
attempt to estimate the demographic consequences of natural
disasters."
This is a revised version of a paper originally
presented at the 1994 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of
America.
Correspondence: S. K. Smith, University of
Florida, Bureau of Economics and Business Research, 221 Matherly Hall,
Gainesville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.
63:10071 Ales, Milan; Simek,
Miroslav. Population projection for the Czech Republic,
1995-2020. [Projekce obyvatelstva Ceské republiky,
1995-2020.] Demografie, Vol. 38, No. 1, 1996. 1-17 pp. Prague, Czech
Republic. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
"In Autumn 1995 the Czech
Statistical Office published the new population prognosis until the
year 2020....The change of population climate connected with the
over-all change of economic and social conditions in the process of
social transformation appears to be profound and fundamental. It is
therefore unlikely that there would occur a turn in the near future and
that...natality would grow...again to a...significant
extent."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:10072 Andreev, Evgeni; Scherbov, Sergei;
Willekens, Frans. The population of Russia: fewer and
older. Demographic scenarios for Russia and its regions.
Population Research Centre Demographic Reports, No. 22, 1997. 242 pp.
University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences: Groningen,
Netherlands. In Eng.
"The paper presents the first ever
demographic scenarios for the regions of Russia. Scenarios are
developed for 49 oblasts (regions), 6 krays (territories), 21
republics, 1 autonomous oblast and two national cities, Moscow and St.
Petersburg. Five scenarios are considered: two optimistic scenarios,
two medium scenarios and one pessimistic scenario....The main results
are presented graphically for the 79 areas. Detailed results and a
discussion of the differences between the scenarios are presented for
11 economic-geographic regions." The main conclusions are that the
population decline will continue in all scenarios, although
in-migration will mitigate some of its effects. The expected decline
over the period 1995-2025 ranges from 2 million in an optimistic
scenario to 32 million in a pessimistic scenario. Demographic aging
will reach unprecedented levels, and by 2025, Russia will have 20 to 50
percent fewer children than today. The spatial redistribution of the
population away from Siberia to European Russia is likely to
continue.
Correspondence: University of Groningen, Faculty
of Spatial Sciences, Population Research Centre, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV
Groningen, Netherlands. E-mail: FACULTY@FRW.RUG.NL. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:10073 Argentina. Instituto Nacional de
Estadística y Censos [INDEC] (Buenos Aires, Argentina); United
Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE]
(Santiago, Chile). Projections of the urban and rural
population and of the economically active population, 1990-2025.
[Proyección de la población urbana y rural y de la
población economicamente activa, 1990-2025.] Serie
Análisis Demográfico, No. 1, 1995. 66 pp. Buenos Aires,
Argentina. In Spa.
This report contains population projections for
Argentina up to the year 2025. The projections are presented separately
for the rural and urban population by age and sex, and for the labor
force by rural and urban residence, sex, and
age.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de
Estadística y Censos, Avenida Presidente Julio A. Roca 609, 1067
Buenos Aires, Argentina. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
63:10074 Guillemot, Danielle; Gubian, Alain;
Marioni, Pierre; Brondel, Daniel; Lincot, Liliane.
Projections of the economically active population, 1995-2040.
[Projections de population active 1995-2040.] INSEE Résultats:
Emploi-Revenus, No. 516, ISBN 2-11-066519-X. Jan 1997. 91 pp. Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris,
France. In Fre.
Labor force projections are presented for France up
to the year 2040. Attention is given to the methodological aspects of
preparing the projections. The projections are given separately by age
and sex.
Correspondence: Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard,
75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
63:10075 IBIS Business Information (Melbourne,
Australia). Australian households in the 21st
century. IBIS Business Paper, May 1995. iv, 22 pp. Melbourne,
Australia. In Eng.
Using primarily a business perspective, this
report looks at probable future trends in the Australian population,
particularly as they affect households. Topics examined include
population growth, ethnicity and immigration, spatial distribution, age
structure, housing and home ownership, and household
characteristics.
Correspondence: IBIS Business Information,
1 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:10076 Lutz, Wolfgang. The
future population of the world. What can we assume today? Rev. ed.
ISBN 1-85383-344-4. 1996. xxii, 500 pp. International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan
Publications: London, England. In Eng.
This book contains 17
studies by various authors on aspects of the probable growth of the
world's population over the next 100 years. "This revised and
updated version incorporates completely new scenario projections based
on updated starting values and revised assumptions, plus several
methodological improvements. It also contains the best currently
available information on global trends in AIDS mortality and the first
ever fully probabilistic world population projections. The projections,
given up to 2100, add important additional features to those of the UN
and the World Bank: they show the impacts of alternative assumptions
for all three components (mortality and migration, as well as
fertility); they explicitly take into account possible environmental
limits to growth; and, for the first time, they define confidence
levels for global populations."
For the first edition,
published in 1994, see 61:20085.
Correspondence: Earthscan
Publications, 120 Pentonville Road, London N1 9JN, England. E-mail:
earthinfo@earthscan.co.uk. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
63:10077 Mathews, Georges. The
demographic future of the regions: a critical analysis and the
implications of the most recent population projections of the Quebec
Statistics Bureau. [L'avenir démographique des
régions: analyse critique et implications des plus
récentes perspectives démographiques du BSQ.] Recherches
Sociographiques, Vol. 37, No. 3, Sep-Dec 1996. 411-37, 609 pp. Quebec,
Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The most recent population
projections for the regions of the Canadian province of Quebec are
presented for the period up to 2016. The projections indicate that the
differences between the Montreal region and the rest of the province
will increase over time. Although only four outlying regions will
experience actual population declines in this period, the demographic
situation appears to be serious in many regions apart from Montreal,
and declines in population size may be anticipated.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:10078 McKibben, Jerome N. The
impact of policy changes on forecasting for school districts.
Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 15, No. 5-6, Dec 1996.
527-36 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper
describes a case study in which a professional demographic consulting
team was brought in to aid in the development of a long-term building
and reorganization plan for an Indiana school district. Just prior to
the start of this process, a state-level policy was promulgated that
changed the age of eligibility for entering kindergarten in such a
manner that it temporarily produced the appearance of an increase in
the number of kindergartners in districts throughout Indiana....Having
uncovered both the policy and its effect, the consultants produced an
enrollment forecast that was not confounded by the artificial
appearance of growth. This forecast showed much less growth than
expected by the district's officials and residents, both of whom had
been conditioned to expect future enrollment growth by not only the
policy effect but by local media reports on the national `Baby
Boomlet', a phenomenon not actually occurring in their district. The
demographers successfully defended their forecast in the face of strong
initial disbelief as well as outright opposition by the
residents."
Correspondence: J. N. McKibben, University
of Southern Mississippi, Department of Sociology, Box 5074,
Hattiesburg, MS 39402. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:10079 Opitz, Wolfgang; Nelson,
Harold. Short-term, population-based forecasting in the
public sector: a dynamic caseload simulation model. Population
Research and Policy Review, Vol. 15, No. 5-6, Dec 1996. 549-63 pp.
Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Development of a new
`population-based' method to solve the problem of forecasting income
assistance caseloads for the state of Washington represents yet another
effort in which the demographic perspective helps solve two major
public-policy problems: (1) providing accurate and useful forecasts of
caseloads, and (2) creating a dynamic model with which to analyze
alternative policy proposals....Population-based forecasting, as
reported here, is really quite a novel approach to forecasting public
assistance caseloads....Characteristics associated with entries and
exits can be used to develop dynamic models of current and future
caseload changes. For budgeting purposes, these models can be readily
translated into average annual caseload levels and can be directly used
to examine policy alternatives and programmatic options. Entry and exit
rates and volumes can be related to historical, current, and
anticipated changes in economic, social, and programmatic conditions to
develop models of caseload behavior, and ultimately, forecasts of
caseload levels that are used for budget
development."
Correspondence: W. Opitz, Washington
State Department of Social and Health Services, Budget Division, P.O.
Box 45843, Olympia, WA 98504-5843. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
63:10080 Penev, Goran; Sekulic, Ljiljana;
Cicovic, Dragoljupka. Population projections of the
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, 1991-2021. [Projektsije
stanovnistva Savezne Republike Jugoslavije, 1991-2021.] ISBN
86-7479-030-5. 1996. 311 pp. Savezni Zavod za Statistiku: Belgrade,
Yugoslavia; Univerzitet u Beogradu, Institut Drustvenih Nauka, Centar
za Demografska Istrazivanja: Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Eng; Scc.
Population projections are presented for Yugoslavia, its republics
(Serbia and Montenegro), and the provinces (Montenegro, Central Serbia,
Vojvodina, and Kosovo-Metohija) by age and sex up to the year 2021. Ten
alternative variants are presented, based on various assumptions
concerning fertility, mortality, and migration.
Correspondence:
Savezni Zavod za Statistiku, Kneza Milosa 20, P.O. Box 203, 11000
Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
63:10081 Tayman, Jeff.
Forecasting, growth management and public policy decision
making. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 15, No. 5-6,
Dec 1996. 491-508 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This
paper's objective is to describe the interplay between forecasting and
decision making. It shows how a forecast helped shape public policy
and, in turn, how public policy influenced a forecast, within the
context of the growth management effort underway in the San Diego
region. The forecast identified economic challenges and land use issues
facing the region and public policy actions were developed to address
them. Normative forecasting best describes the relationship between the
forecast and these public policy decisions. This `active' approach to
forecasting involves first deciding what future outcome is desirable
and, then, designing policies and actions to achieve these
outcomes."
Correspondence: J. Tayman, San Diego
Association of Governments, 401 B Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA
92101. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:10082 Tayman, Jeff; Swanson, David
A. On the utility of population forecasts.
Demography, Vol. 33, No. 4, Nov 1996. 523-8 pp. Silver Spring,
Maryland. In Eng.
"Many customers demand population forecasts,
particularly for small areas. Although the forecast evaluation
literature is extensive, it is dominated by a focus on accuracy. We go
beyond accuracy by examining the concept of forecast utility in an
evaluation of a sample of 2,709 [U.S.] counties and census tracts. We
find that forecasters provide `value-added' knowledge for areas
experiencing rapid change or areas with relatively large populations.
For other areas, reduced value is more common than added value. Our
results suggest that new forecasting strategies and methods such as
composite modeling may substantially improve forecast
utility."
This is a revised version of a paper originally
presented at the 1995 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of
America.
Correspondence: J. Tayman, San Diego Association
of Governments, 401 B Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA 92101.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:10083 van Hoorn, Willem; de Beer, Joop; van
Poppel, Frans. Future population in the European Economic
Area: the impact of age structure, fertility, mortality and
migration. In: Démographie: analyse et synthèse.
Causes et conséquences des évolutions
démographiques, edited by Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin, and
Guillaume Wunsch. Aug 1996. 367-88 pp. Centre Français sur la
Population et le Développement [CEPED]: Paris, France;
Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di
Scienze Demografiche: Rome, Italy. In Eng.
"This paper
examines the relative contribution of [the relevant demographic]
factors to future changes in the population of the countries of the
European Economic Area (EEA), i.e. the fifteen countries of the
European Union plus Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. Section 2
describes five population scenarios for the countries of the EEA based
on three sets of assumptions on future fertility, mortality and
migration. Section 3 gives a...concise description of these
assumptions. Section 4 presents some main results of the five
population scenarios. Section 5 examines the impact of the current age
structure on the future demographic development. Section 6 assesses the
impact of future fertility, mortality and migration on the size and age
structure of the population. Finally section 7 summarizes the main
conclusions."
Correspondence: W. van Hoorn, Statistics
Netherlands, Department of Population, P.O. Box 4000, 2270 JM Voorburg,
Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.
63:10084 Burdack, Joachim.
Regional demographic trends in France: an examination at the level
of employment zones. [Regionale Bevölkerungsentwicklung in
Frankreich: eine Untersuchung auf der Ebene der zones d'emploi.] Europa
Regional, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1995. 25-37, 41, 43 pp. Leipzig, Germany. In
Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre; Rus.
"The paper studies the
regional demographic trends in France from 1968 to 1990....The study
follows two main objectives: (1) Analysis of the main regional
migration and population trends over the three census periods from 1968
to 1990. (2) Analysis of the growth trends of different types of
regions on the basis of typifying the `zones d'emploi' (labour market
regions) according to economic criteria and settlement structure
criteria. The large-scale patterns of the population and migration
trends seem to be relatively stable in comparison to the massive change
in the general economic and political framework in France and Western
Europe....The different region types, however, show more distinct
changes."
Correspondence: J. Burdack, Institut
für Länderkunde, Bereich Regionale Geographie Europas, 04329
Leipzig, Germany. Location: New York Public Library, New York,
NY.
63:10085 Hong Kong. Census and Statistics
Department (Hong Kong). Demographic trends in Hong Kong
1986-1995. Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, Oct 1996. 1-19
pp. Hong Kong. In Eng; Chi.
Population trends in Hong Kong for the
period from 1986 to 1995 are described. There are sections on
population size and growth, age structure, sex structure, fertility,
mortality, life expectancy, and marriage.
Correspondence:
Census and Statistics Department, 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour
Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
63:10086 Italy. Istituto Nazionale di
Statistica [ISTAT] (Rome, Italy). The resident population
of the communes. The censuses from 1861 to 1991: territorial divisions
as of October 20, 1991. [Popolazione residente dei comuni.
Censimenti dal 1861 al 1991: circoscrizioni territoriali al 20 ottobre
1991.] LC 95-219465. 1994. 484 pp. Rome, Italy. In Ita.
Data are
presented on the resident population of the communes of Italy from 1861
to 1991. The data are adjusted, where necessary, to the administrative
divisions existing on October 20, 1991. The data presented in this
volume are also available on floppy disk.
Correspondence:
Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, Via Cesare Balbo 11a, 00184
Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
63:10087 Juhola, Katariina; Juhola,
Martti. Malthusian parameter on the Finnish population in
the 20th century. International Journal of Bio-Medical Computing,
Vol. 41, No. 1, 1996. 5-11 pp. Limerick, Ireland. In Eng.
"We
were interested in studying a demographic indicator, the Malthusian
parameter which had not been investigated earlier in the case of the
Finnish population. We computed the Malthusian parameter with a known
renewal equation, which is, as usual, approximated on discrete data by
using normal distribution, on the Finnish population in the 20th
century....In addition to this parameter we computed the gross and net
reproduction rates, the total fertility index, and the mean and
variance age of females at child-bearing. The Malthusian parameter
seems to be a rather good means of characterizing the development of
the population. If the parameter is positive for long enough, the
population tends to grow. If it is negative, as has been the case in
Finland since 1969, the population starts to diminish sooner or
later."
Correspondence: M. Juhola, University of
Kuopio, Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, P.O.
Box 1627, 70211 Kuopio, Finland. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
