Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.
62:40727 Behar, Cem L. The
Reverend Jean-Louis Muret (1715-1796): from depopulation controversy to
demographic analysis. [Le pasteur Jean-Louis Muret (1715-1796): de
la controverse sur la dépopulation à l'analyse
démographique.] Population, Vol. 51, No. 3, May-Jun 1996. 609-44
pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"The
demographic work of the Swiss minister, Jean-Louis Muret...remains a
significant contribution to `political arithmetic'. His sound study of
the population of the Vaud region, published in 1766, ranks Muret among
the leading demographers of the eighteenth century. He was responsible
for a number of technical innovations. He calculated the first [life]
table for women by marital status, using the double entry for single
women. Together with Struyck he was the first to break down the life
table during the first year of life into months, and the first month
further into weeks. He was also the first to construct `standardized'
demographic indices using yearly deaths, marriages and baptisms and
was, therefore, a pioneer in using crude birth, marriage and death
rates."
Correspondence: C. L. Behar, Bogaziçi
Üniversitesi, 80815 Bebek, Istanbul, Turkey. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40728 Courgeau, Daniel; Lelièvre,
Eva. Shifting the paradigm in demography. [Changement
de paradigme en démographie.] Population, Vol. 51, No. 3,
May-Jun 1996. 645-54 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"The classical paradigm in demography states that only one
demographic process can be studied at a time....Such a conceptual stand
forbids the study of multiple processes, [whether] interactive or
competing, and necessitates the decomposition of the initial population
into an ever increasing number of homogeneous sub-groups. As the size
of each sub-population gets smaller, it [quickly] becomes impossible to
conduct a valid analysis. A change of paradigm is therefore inevitable
to conduct a study of interacting processes and an exploration of the
heterogeneity of a population. This new approach deals with individual
life courses in a greater complexity, [with] each new development being
dependent on the past experience and the information available to
individuals. This new paradigm has opened the way to life event history
analysis, in place for already 15 years."
Correspondence:
D. Courgeau, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27
rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40729 Ghilagaber, Gebrenegus.
Analysis of survival data with single and multiple causes of
failure: applications in family demography. Oct 1996. 41, 31 pp.
Uppsala Universitet, Department of Statistics: Uppsala, Sweden. In Eng.
This thesis consists of two related studies involving hazard-rate
models. Using the example of the correlates of marital dissolution, the
first study explores similarities among a number of models for the rate
of occurrence of an event and for the duration until the occurrence.
The second study focuses on the analysis of survival data with more
than one cause of failure, using the example of the influence of
socio-demographic characteristics on the rate of family initiation, and
more particularly, on the choice of marriage and cohabitation in first
unions. Official data from Sweden are used to illustrate the concepts
studied.
Correspondence: Uppsala University, Department of
Statistics, P.O. Box 513, 751 20 Uppsala, Sweden. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40730 Kim, Young J.; Schoen,
Robert. Populations with quadratic exponential
growth. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1, 1996.
19-33, 67 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Here we examine dynamic-hyperstable-models with increasing or
decreasing vital rates, providing the first detailed analysis of a
closed form model of monotonic demographic change. Using two different
approaches, we demonstrate how exponentiated quadratic birth
trajectories are related to exponentially increasing vital rates.
Focusing on the plausible assumption of a fixed proportional
distribution of births by age of mother, we show how convergence to
hyperstability parallels convergence to classical stability. Our
analysis focuses on net maternity rates, allowing considerable
flexibility in patterns of change in either fertility or mortality.
Under the assumption of constant mortality over time, we specify the
hyperstable population's age structure and its relationship to its
associated stable population at every point in
time."
Correspondence: Y. J. Kim, Johns Hopkins
University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Department of
Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40731 Marchetti, Cesare; Meyer, Perrin S.;
Ausubel, Jesse H. Human population dynamics revisited with
the logistic model: how much can be modeled and predicted?
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 52, No. 1, May 1996.
1-30 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"We revive the logistic
model, which was tested and found wanting in early-20th-century studies
of aggregate human populations, and apply it instead to life expectancy
(death) and fertility (birth)....For death...the logistic portrays the
situation crisply. Human life expectancy is reaching the culmination of
a two-hundred year-process that forestalls death until about 80 for men
and the mid 80s for women. No breakthroughs in longevity are in sight
unless genetic engineering comes to help. For birth, the logistic
covers quantitatively its actual morphology. However, because we have
not been able to model this essential parameter in a predictive way
over long periods, we cannot say whether the future of human population
is runaway growth or slow implosion...From a niche point of view,
resources are the limits to numbers, and access to resources depends on
technologies. The logistic makes clear that for homo faber, the limits
to numbers keep shifting. These moving edges may most confound
forecasting the long-run size of humanity."
Correspondence:
J. H. Ausubel, Rockefeller University, Program for the Human
Environment, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10021-6399. Location:
Princeton University Library (PR).
62:40732 Schoen, Robert; Kim, Young
J. Stabilization, birth waves, and the surge in the
elderly. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1, 1996.
35-53, 67 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
This study examines the transition of a population to stability
following a shift to a new fixed set of vital rates. Specifically, the
authors develop a simple discrete population model and use it to derive
an explicit solution for the birth trajectory. "The new vital
rates interact with the population's initial age composition and
generate birth waves whose amplitude and attenuation depend on the
ratio of ultimate to initial growth and on the new pattern of stable
net maternity. A greater change in growth and a later stable net
maternity pattern produce larger fluctuations in the number of births.
Stabilization begins at the youngest ages and proceeds upward. Sixty
years after the shift, the birth waves have largely disappeared and the
proportion under age 15 approximates the stable level implied by the
new rates. Those patterns are manifest in the stabilization of both
observed and Coale-Demeny model stable
populations."
Correspondence: R. Schoen, Johns Hopkins
University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Department of
Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40733 Wéry, René.
Demo-economic modeling: the experience of the Bachue models.
[Modélisation démo-économique: l'expérience
des modèles Bachue.] Population et Développement, No. 4,
ISBN 2-87209-421-0. 1996. 215 pp. Academia-Bruylant: Louvain-la-Neuve,
Belgium; L'Harmattan: Paris, France; Centre International de Formation
et de Recherche en Population et Développement [CIDEP]:
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
This volume
contains a selection of articles, some of which have been previously
published, on the Bachue models, which were developed by the
International Labour Organization during the 1970s and 1980s as a tool
for integrating demographic variables into the development planning
process in developing countries. These models were developed to study
the relationships between population growth and spatial distribution in
the context of socioeconomic development, employment growth, income
distribution, and poverty. The reasons for abandoning efforts to build
development models along these lines are also
discussed.
Correspondence: Bruylant-Academia, 25/115 Grand
Rue, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
