Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.
Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.
62:40072 Anderson, Michael.
British population history, 1911-1991. In: British population
history: from the Black Death to the present day, edited by Michael
Anderson. 1996. 359-409 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New
York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
This is a history of population
developments in Britain from 1911 to 1991. There are sections on
population trends in general, mortality, fertility and nuptiality, and
the economic and social implications of demographic
change.
Correspondence: M. Anderson, University of
Edinburgh, Department of Economic History, Edinburgh EH8 9YL, Scotland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40073 Popov, V. P. Regional
demographic characteristics in Russia in the 1940s. [Regional'nye
osobennosti demograficheskogo polozheniya RSFSR v 40-e gody.]
Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, No. 4, 1996. 58-66 pp. Moscow, Russia.
In Rus.
An analysis of population trends in Russia during the 1940s
is presented. The author examines differences in the rates of
population growth and in the spatial distribution of the population by
region, area, and autonomous republic. Differences between rural and
urban areas are also noted.
Location: Princeton University
Library (PR).
62:40074 Zhang, Lingguang; Jiang,
Zhenghua. Analyzing the prospect of population development
in China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 8, No. 1,
1996. 1-11 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article
analyzes...population development in China...over the past 20 years. It
projects the future of population development in China and proposes
corresponding policies."
Correspondence: L. Zhang,
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Population Research Institute, 5
Jianguomen Nei Da Jie 5 Hao, Beijing, China. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.
62:40075 Belgium. Institut National de
Statistique (Brussels, Belgium). Total population and
population of Belgian nationality on January 1, 1996. [Population
totale et belge au 1.1.1996.] Statistiques Démographiques, No.
1A, 1996. 239 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
Estimates of the total
and Belgian nationality populations are presented by sex, age, and
marital status for the whole country and for its regions, provinces,
and communes.
Correspondence: Institut National de
Statistique, 44 rue de Louvain, Centre Albert, 8e étage, 1000
Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
62:40076 Canada. Statistics Canada. Demography
Division (Ottawa, Canada). Revised intercensal population
and family estimates, July 1, 1971-1991. [Estimations
intercensitaires révisées de la population et des
familles au 1er juillet, 1971-1991.] Pub. Order No. 91-537. ISBN
0-660-54899-2. Jul 1994. x, 749 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
These are revised estimates of the population of Canada for the
period 1971-1991, which take into account the decision made in 1993 to
incorporate net census undercoverage in the population estimates
program. "This publication is composed of three parts: the first
part...[presents] the major features of the demographic evolution
between 1971 and 1991,...discusses sources of data and methods, and
offers a brief evaluation of the quality of the data presented....The
second part...[includes] explanatory tables dealing with the quality of
the estimates; tables presenting the population estimates by age, sex,
and marital status for Canada, provinces and territories from 1971 to
1991; tables providing the total population and components of
population growth for divisions and census metropolitan areas, from
1986 to 1991; and finally, tables covering census families from 1986 to
1991. In the third part, the reader will find a bibliography,
information concerning the availability in electronic form of the
data...and a dictionary covering the principal demographic
concepts."
Correspondence: Statistics Canada,
Demography Division, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40077 Demeny, Paul. World
population growth: trends and prospects, 1960-2020. In: Resources
and population: natural, institutional, and demographic dimensions of
development, edited by Bernardo Colombo, Paul Demeny, and Max F.
Perutz. 1996. 25-47 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Using mostly United Nations estimates, [the author] outlines
salient features of the most recent trends in global population growth
and considers the determinants and likely future evolution of these
trends. The focus of the discussion is on the six decades centered on
1990. Comments on demographic change in a more remote past and glimpses
to more distant demographic futures are also offered to place the
period 1960-2020 into a broader perspective....The discussion begins
with comments on the demographic transition--a descriptive device that
summarizes some common patterns of mortality and fertility that have
driven population change over time in the modern era. This is followed
by a description of recent regional trends in population growth and its
main proximate determinants, mortality and fertility. The concluding
sections interpret these trends and consider future population
prospects."
Correspondence: P. Demeny, Population
Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40078 Macau. Direcção de
Serviços de Estatística e Censos (Macau).
Estimates of the resident population of Macau, December 31,
1994. [Estimativas da população residente de Macau
para 31 de dezembro de 1994.] Jul 1995. 106 pp. Macau. In Chi; Por.
Population estimates are presented by age and sex for Macau for
1994. The estimates are used to calculate revised projections of the
population up to the year 2000.
Correspondence:
Direcção de Serviços de Estatística e
Censos, Rua Inácio Baptista 4D-6, 3° andar, Macau. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40079 McDevitt, Thomas M.
World population profile: 1996. No. WP/96, ISBN 0-16-048732-3.
Jul 1996. v, 88, [96] pp. U.S. Agency for International Development
[USAID]: Washington, D.C.; U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C.
In Eng.
This report presents updates of the U.S. Census Bureau's
"population estimates and projections for all the countries and
regions of the world. It includes information on population
composition, population growth, fertility, mortality, and use of
contraception. A special section focuses on adolescent fertility in the
developing world."
Correspondence: U.S. Government
Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP,
Washington, D.C. 20402-9328. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
62:40080 Sommer, Bettina.
Marriages, births, and deaths, 1994. [Eheschließungen,
Geburten und Sterbefälle 1994.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 6,
Jun 1996. 351-6 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Information is
presented on marriages, births, deaths, life expectancy, and
stillbirths in Germany in 1994. Special attention is given to
comparisons between the former East and West Germany. Some data for
earlier years are also provided.
Location: Princeton
University Library (PF).
62:40081 Steenkamp, H. A.
Population estimates for the RSA by magisterial district and
province, 1996. Research Report/Navorsingsverslag, No. 230, ISBN
0-947459-73-1. 1996. ix, 72 pp. University of South Africa, Bureau of
Market Research: Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
Population
estimates for South Africa and its regions and districts are presented
for 1996 using data from various official sources, including the 1991
census. The estimates are presented separately for the four main ethnic
groups.
For previous estimates for 1995, see 61:30095.
Correspondence: University of South Africa, Bureau of
Market Research, P.O. Box 392, 0001 Pretoria, South Africa.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40082 Toucan Valley Publications (Milpitas,
California). American population change annual. 2nd
ed. ISBN 1-884925-06-5. 1996. ix, 380 pp. Milpitas, California. In Eng.
This publication is designed as a supplement to decennial U.S.
census publications, and provides population estimates for local areas
and information on population changes since 1990. Data are provided
down to the county level or local equivalent.
Correspondence:
Toucan Valley Publications, 142 N. Milpitas Boulevard, Suite 260,
Milpitas, CA 95035. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.
62:40083 Bomsdorf, Eckart. Life
table for the 2000 cohort: modeling approaches, model calculations,
sensitivity considerations, and economic consequences.
[Kohortensterbetafel 2000: Modellierungsansätze, Modellrechnungen,
Sensitivitätsbetrachtungen und ökonomische Konsequenzen.] In:
Sterblichkeitsentwicklung--unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des
Kohortenansatzes, edited by Reiner H. Dinkel, Charlotte Höhn, and
Rembrandt D. Scholz. 1996. 67-88 pp. R. Oldenbourg Verlag: Munich,
Germany; Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden,
Germany. In Ger.
This article explores the question of German
mortality in future cohorts. The example of the 1996 cohort is used to
present a model, its underlying assumptions, and the results of the
extrapolation. The economic consequences are also discussed. Decreased
mortality has strong effects on the age structure and consequently on
social costs. Periodic life tables are of only limited usefulness for
population projections and for the calculation of life, retirement, and
health insurance, since they provide no information about future
developments.
Correspondence: E. Bomsdorf, Universität
zu Köln, Fakultät für Wirtschaft und
Sozialwissenschaften, 5000 Cologne, Germany. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40084 Brahimi, Rabah.
Demography: population projections, 1990-2020.
[Démographie: projections de population, 1990-2020.] Collections
Statistiques, No. 66, 1994. 73 pp. Office National des Statistiques:
Algiers, Algeria. In Fre.
This publication has chapters on
population trends in Algeria as a whole, population characteristics,
and the urban population. It includes statistical tables presenting
population estimates and alternative projections by wilaya (district)
from 1990 to 2020.
Correspondence: Office National des
Statistiques, 8-10 Rue des Moussebiline, Algiers, Algeria.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40085 Cleland, John.
Population growth in the 21st century: cause for crisis or
celebration? Tropical Medicine and International Health, Vol. 1,
No. 1, Feb 1996. 15-26 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Between
now and the end of the next century, the population of the planet is
projected to grow from 5.7 billion to somewhere between 9 and 16
billion. In the next 25 years, continued rapid growth is inescapable
because of the youthful age structures of many countries. Beyond that
point much depends on fertility trends in the coming decades. Continued
population growth does not make inevitable any global catastrophe but
it will exacerbate greatly problems of underemployment. The prognosis
for further fertility declines is good, because the communications
revolution is hastening the spread of new ideas and political attitudes
are becoming favourable."
Correspondence: J. Cleland,
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Centre for Population
Studies, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 7HT, England. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40086 Cruijsen, H.; Eding, H.
An evaluation of recent population scenarios for the EEA and
Switzerland. Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 44, No. 7, Jul
1996. 20-30 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This article
will review the quality of the national long-term population scenarios
[for the EEA and Switzerland] compiled by Eurostat in Spring 1991
(former European Community) and Spring 1993 (former European Free Trade
Association). By means of a limited number of figures it will be shown
how close these projections were for the period 1990-1994. Each item
will be briefly explained."
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
62:40087 de Beer, J.; de Jong, A.
National population scenarios for countries of the European
Economic Area. Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 44, No. 7,
Jul 1996. 7-19 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This
article presents new population scenarios for the 18 countries of the
European Economic Area (EEA) for the period 1995-2050. In most of these
countries population size will continue to grow for some two to three
decades. A major exception is Italy, which will see its population size
decline rather sharply. According to the baseline scenario total
population size of the 18 EEA countries will increase from 376 million
in 1995 to 393 million in 2020. Around 2025 the total population size
will start to decline. It will be about equal to the current level in
2050. Ageing is a common trend in all countries. The pace of the ageing
process however differs between countries. Italy and Spain in
particular will face a strongly ageing population. According to the
baseline scenario, the percentage of the population aged 65 years or
over in the 18 EEA countries will increase from 15 in 1995 to 28 in
2050."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40088 Eding, J. H.; Willekens, F. J.;
Cruijsen, H. Long-term demographic scenarios for the
European Union. Population Research Centre Demographic Reports,
No. 20, 1996. [vii], 249 pp. University of Groningen, Faculty of
Spatial Sciences: Groningen, Netherlands. In Eng.
This report
presents five alternative projections of future population trends in
the countries of the European Community up to the year 2025. The
projections were prepared in cooperation with EUROSTAT in the context
of a prospective study on pension expenditures, and are based on
available data concerning the population on January 1, 1994. The
projections range from an increase in population of 49 million to a
decrease of 18 million. Significant differences in demographic aging
are identified both among the various projections and among the
countries included in the projections.
Correspondence:
University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Population
Research Centre, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40089 Görzig, Bernd; Gornig, Martin;
Schulz, Erika. Quantitative scenarios for population and
economic development in Germany to the year 2000. [Quantitative
Szenarien zur Bevölkerungs- und Wirtschaftsentwicklung in
Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2000.] Beiträge zur Strukturforschung,
No. 150, ISBN 3-428-08001-7. LC 94-156812. 1994. 114 pp. Deutsches
Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung: Berlin, Germany. In Ger.
In
the wake of German reunification and the opening of Eastern Europe, two
possible scenarios, labeled "integration" and
"stagnation", are presented for the development of Germany's
population and economy from 1992 to 2000. The integration scenario
assumes success in liberalizing world trade and stabilization of the
Eastern European economy, and a correspondingly strong global economy.
The stagnation scenario assumes obstacles to global trade and negative
effects of the economic conversion in Eastern Europe. Prognoses are
made in various categories, including net migration and population
changes by age, as well as labor force participation, percentage of
foreigners, productivity, unemployment, occupational structure, and
income distribution. In each category, projections are presented for
the former East and West Germany.
Correspondence: Deutsches
Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Königin-Luise-Straße
5, 14195 Berlin, Germany. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
62:40090 Hall, Ray; White, Paul.
Europe's population: towards the next century. ISBN
1-85728-178-0. 1995. xiii, 208 pp. UCL Press: London, England. In Eng.
This collective work has its roots in a session at the 1992 Annual
Conference of British Geographers on future population change in
Europe, organized by the Population Geography Study Group. "The
aim of [this book]...is to contribute to informed discussion of the
demographic futures of Europe as a whole. The whole range of population
geography is covered, including considerations of fertility and
mortality, household and family structures, labour-force issues,
population redistribution and international migration. The authors were
each asked to look to the year 2000 and, where possible, beyond. The
approach adopted eschews highly technical projections, instead
highlighting issues and alternative scenarios within general contexts
of societal and economic evolution." The primary focus is on the
countries of the European Union.
Selected items will be cited in
this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence:
UCL Press, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E
6BT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40091 Höhn, Charlotte.
Population projections for the world, the European Community member
states, and Germany. [Bevölkerungsvorausberechnungen für
die Welt, die EU-Mitgliedsländer und Deutschland.] Zeitschrift
für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 21, No. 2, 1996. 171-218
pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"The
article is a study for the parliamentary ad hoc Commission on
Demographic Change [in Germany] and contains the following sections:
introductory remarks regarding methodology, population projections of
the United Nations for the world and its regions, population
projections for the EU member countries, and official population
projections for...the Federal Republic of Germany prior to
unification....Summarising the results in a single sentence, it can be
established that all populations in the world will undergo ageing in
the future. The industrialised countries have already progressed
considerably farther in this direction,
however."
Correspondence: C. Höhn, Statistisches
Bundesamt, Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung, 65180
Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
62:40092 Honduras. Secretaría de
Planificación, Coordinación y Presupuesto (Tegucigalpa,
Honduras); United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA] (New York, New York);
Honduras. Dirección General de Estadística y Censos
(Tegucigalpa, Honduras). Honduras: population projections.
National, departmental, and municipal. [Honduras: proyecciones de
población. Nacionales, departamentales, municipales.] Jan 1996.
313 pp. Tegucigalpa, Honduras. In Spa.
Population projections are
presented for Honduras by age and sex and for various geographical
subdivisions. The projections for the whole country are for the period
1988-2050, those for departments for 1988-2010, and those for
municipalities for 1988-2000.
Correspondence:
Secretaría de Planificación, Coordinación y
Presupuesto, Dirección General de Estadística y Censos,
Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
62:40093 Hussein, Mounira A. Time
series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in
Egypt until year 2010. Egyptian Population and Family Planning
Review, Vol. 27, No. 2, Dec 1993. 67-81 pp. Giza, Egypt. In Eng.
"Egypt's population has rapidly increased since the beginning
of the twentieth century. This rapid increase reflects mainly both
fertility and mortality. Here, a class of autoregressive integrated
moving average (ARIMA) model is used to analyze a time series of crude
birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR). Predicted values for both
CBR and CDR in Egypt for the time period 1992-2010 are derived. We used
these predictions to get predicted values for Natural Increase Rate
(NIR) for the time period 1992-2010."
Correspondence:
M. A. Hussein, Menoufia University, College of Commerce, Shebeen
El-Kome, Egypt. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40094 Luxembourg. Service Central de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [STATEC] (Luxembourg).
Population projections. [Prévisions de population.]
Bulletin du STATEC, Vol. 43, No. 6, 1996. 171-98 pp. Luxembourg. In
Fre.
Population projections are presented for Luxembourg up to the
year 2010. The first section has projections for each year by age, with
four assumptions concerning migration. The second section has
projections of the labor force and school-age population. The third
section presents household projections.
Correspondence:
Service Central de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques,
Boîte Postale 304, 19-21 Boulevard Royal, 2013 Luxembourg.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40095 van Poppel, Frans; de Beer,
Joop. Evaluation of standard mortality projections for the
elderly. In: Health and mortality among elderly populations,
edited by Graziella Caselli and Alan D. Lopez. 1996. 288-312 pp.
Clarendon Press: Oxford, England; International Union for the
Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liège, Belgium. In Eng.
"In this chapter we will discuss how the official population
projections, made by governmental agencies, have treated mortality at
higher ages, and evaluate how successful they have been in making
projections of the future number of elderly people. Attention will be
restricted to the experiences in developed countries and, in
particular, to the situation in European countries....We first give an
overview of the different approaches used in projecting mortality. In
the next section, we will review the recent population projections made
by the statistical agencies in Western countries, giving particular
attention to how the highest age-groups are treated in these
projections. We will then evaluate the accuracy of a series of
population projections for the elderly population made in developed
countries during the period 1950-90."
Correspondence:
F. van Poppel, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic
Institute, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40096 Yadava, K. N. S.; Yadava, S. N.;
Sarin, D. Population growth under changed fertility
schedule in stability conditions. Mathematical Population Studies,
Vol. 6, No. 1, 1996. 55-65, 67 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with
sum. in Fre.
"This paper aims to investigate some models for
population projection under a gradual change in fertility schedule, and
to evaluate integrals therein for their actual values....Some formulae
for population projection have been derived under stability conditions.
The proposed formulae are also illustrated with some numerical values
of the parameters involved therein. The merits and shortcomings are
also discussed."
Correspondence: K. N. S. Yadava,
Banaras Hindu University, Department of Statistics, Varanasi 221 005,
India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:40097 Yousif, Hassan M.; Hammouda, Ahmad
A. Alternative population projection scenarios by
education attainment for Egypt, the Sudan and Tunisia. Population
Bulletin of ESCWA, No. 43, 1995. 55-98 pp. Amman, Jordan. In Eng.
"This paper presents alternative population projections for
Egypt, the Sudan and Tunisia using the scenario approach developed at
the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Its primary
objective is to show how education attainment and policies influence
the future population patterns in these countries....Section I gives a
brief presentation of the scenario approach. Sections II and III show
fertility and mortality conditions in Egypt, the Sudan and
Tunisia....Section V presents the stands of Governments on population
policies and in shaping future population patterns. We [then] present
our assumptions, scenario setting and projection
results...."
Correspondence: H. M. Yousif, University
of Botswana, Private Bag 0022, Gaborone, Botswana. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.
62:40098 Bourcier de Carbon,
Philippe. The population of France: a chronicle of the
coming implosion. [Population de la France: chronique d'une
implosion annoncée.] Futuribles, No. 203, Nov 1995. 63-92 pp.
Paris, France. In Fre.
The author first notes that in France, as in
most other countries that have completed the demographic transition,
fertility has stabilized at a level below that necessary to replace the
population. A consequence of this is a continuing process of
demographic aging, leading to increasing allocations of the nation's
resources to meet the needs of the elderly at the expense of the young,
which in turn leads to even lower levels of fertility. The author
argues for policies to redistribute wealth toward families with
children, pointing out that the longer the initiation of such policies
is delayed, the more unpopular they are likely to prove politically. He
concludes that unless such policies are adopted, the population will
not only age, but will begin an inexorable process of decline in total
size.
Correspondence: P. Bourcier de Carbon, Institut
National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675
Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library
(FST).
62:40099 Hammel, E. A.
Demographic constraints on population growth of early humans:
emphasis on the probable role of females in overcoming such
constraints. Human Nature, Vol. 7, No. 3, 1996. 217-55 pp. New
York, New York. In Eng.
"The human population grew at very low
average rates for most of its existence. Mortality was reasonably
severe and expectation of life at birth was low. The level of fertility
necessary to achieve even infinitesimal population growth under such
mortality implies birth intervals sufficiently short to conflict with
the ability to care for and carry children in a mobile foraging
economy. Techniques for the control of mortality, especially of
children before puberty and of women in childbirth, and of child care
exchange, probably developed by females, may have been essential in
permitting population growth under conditions of mobile
foraging."
Correspondence: E. A. Hammel, University of
California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley,
CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SW).
62:40100 Khalatbari, Parviz.
Population and underdevelopment--thoughts on the Cairo
International Conference on Population and Development.
[Bevölkerung und Unterentwicklung--Gedanken zur Kairoer Konferenz
über Bevölkerung und Entwicklung.] Asien, Afrika,
Lateinamerika, Vol. 24, 1996. 1-16 pp. New York, New York/Chur,
Switzerland. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
The continuing rapid growth
of world population, particularly in the developing countries, is
described. "The backward social and economic environment is not
able to keep pace with the growing population. The result is an
increasing population pressure which finds its expression in
unemployment, hunger, the depletion of...nature, deforestation as well
as migration, uncontrolled expansion of the cities and slum-building.
These problems [already have] global dimensions and their aggravation
is expected in the next 30 years. Our civilisation is exposed to these
global risks. And we have no practicable conception for solving
them."
Correspondence: P. Khalatbari, Gesellschaft
für Demographie, Parkaue 3, 10367 Berlin, Germany. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
