Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.
Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.
62:30055 Larivière,
Jean-Pierre. What demographic transition in China?
[Quelle transition démographique en Chine?] Espace, Populations,
Sociétés, No. 1, 1996. 153-60 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq,
France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"A better knowledge of the
demographic evolution since the beginning of the 18th century shows
that the originality of China lies mostly in the sustained growth
during part of the last centuries of the traditional demographic
regime. The demographic transition, however, seems to have taken place
from the interwar years onwards, following a classic pattern--first, a
lasting decline of mortality, a decrease in fertility starting in the
early stages of the People's Republic."
Correspondence:
J.-P. Larivière, Université de Rennes 2,
Département de Géographie, 6 Avenue Gaston Berger, 35043
Rennes Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.
62:30056 Belgium. Institut National de
Statistique (Brussels, Belgium). Foreign population as at
January 1, 1996. [Population étrangère au 1.1.1996.]
Statistiques Démographiques, No. 1B, 1996. 289 pp. Brussels,
Belgium. In Fre.
Estimates are presented of the foreign population
of Belgium by marital status, nationality, age, and sex for 1996. The
estimates are presented separately for the whole country, the major
regions, and the provinces.
Correspondence: Institut
National de Statistique, 44 rue de Louvain, Centre Albert, 8e
étage, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
62:30057 Macau. Direcção de
Serviços de Estatística e Censos (Macau).
Estimates of the resident population of Macau as of December 31,
1995. [Estimativas da população residente de Macau
para 31 de dezembro de 1995.] Mar 1996. 63 pp. Macau. In Chi; Por.
Population estimates by sex are presented for Macau for individual
years from 1992 to 1995. Selected demographic indicators for the same
years are also provided.
Correspondence:
Direcção de Serviços de Estatística e
Censos, Centro de Documentação e Difusão, Rua
Inácio Baptista 4D-6, 3° andar, Macau. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:30058 Macau. Direcção de
Serviços de Estatística e Censos (Macau).
The methodology for preparing population estimates.
[Metodologia das estimativas da população.] Mar 1996. 12
pp. Macau. In Chi; Por.
This report describes the methodology used
for preparing official population estimates of population in
Macau.
Correspondence: Direcção de
Serviços de Estatística e Censos, Centro de
Documentação e Difusão, Rua Inácio Baptista
4D-6, 3° andar, Macau. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
62:30059 Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael; Yau,
Ellen. How well can IRS count the population? In:
American Statistical Association, 1993 Proceedings of the Government
Statistics Section. [1993]. 138-42 pp. American Statistical Association
[ASA]: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
This study explores the extent
to which data developed by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service for tax
analysis purposes can be used to prepare population estimates.
"First, we will demonstrate how administrative records can be used
to compute a population estimate. Then we will discuss the reliability
of this estimate. Next, we will compare estimates from our data base,
classified by age, sex, and state, to results from the 1990 Census. And
finally, we will summarize our conclusions and make some
recommendations for further research."
Correspondence:
P. Sailer, Internal Revenue Service, (O:S), P.O. Box 2608,
Washington, D.C. 20013-2608. Location: Princeton University
Library (FST).
62:30060 United Kingdom. Scotland. General
Register Office (Edinburgh, Scotland). Mid-1995 population
estimates: Scotland. ISBN 0-11-495809-2. 1996. 26 pp. Edinburgh,
Scotland. In Eng.
Population estimates are presented for Scotland
for 1995. "Data are given for the new council areas that came into
existence on 1 April 1996...and for health board areas. Some relevant
historical information and a table giving land areas and population
densities are also presented. An additional set of tables gives data
for the local authority regions, districts, and islands areas that
existed in 1995."
Correspondence: HMSO Publications
Centre, P.O. Box 276, London SW8 5DT, England. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:30061 Verma, Ravi B. P.; Riordan, Robert;
Stout, Cameron. The accuracy of the regression method for
estimating the population of small areas in Canada, 1981 to 1991.
In: American Statistical Association, 1993 Proceedings of the
Government Statistics Section. [1993]. 179-83 pp. American Statistical
Association [ASA]: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
The purpose of
this paper is to examine whether the three methods used by Statistics
Canada to produce population estimates of small areas are comparable
over time. This is achieved by "(1) comparing the 1991 postcensal
Regression-direct, Regression-nested, and preliminary Component
estimates of the population in relative terms with the 1991 Census
counts; and, (2) by comparing the level of accuracy of the three
methods with those observed in the evaluations conducted for the 1981
and 1986 Censuses."
Correspondence: R. B. P. Verma,
Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6,
Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).
Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.
62:30062 Ananta, Aris; Anwar, Evi N.
Projection of Indonesian population and labor force:
1995-2025. Population Projection Series, No. 5, ISBN
979-525-048-5. Jun 1995. xi, 69 pp. University of Indonesia, Faculty of
Economics, Demographic Institute: Jakarta, Indonesia. In Eng.
This
report contains projections of the rural and urban population of
Indonesia by age and sex, as well as projections of the labor force to
the year 2025. The projections include a chosen scenario and three
alternative projections taking variations in fertility developments
into account. The data are from the 1990 census and the 1991
Demographic and Health Survey.
Correspondence: University
of Indonesia, Faculty of Economics, Demographic Institute, Jalan
Salemba Raya 4, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
62:30063 Anwar, Evi N.; Fadjri, Panpan A.;
Setiati, M. U. Ira. Population projection, 1995-2025: West
Java. Population Projection Series, No. 6, ISBN 979-525-055-8. Jan
1995. ix, 57 pp. University of Indonesia, Faculty of Economics,
Demographic Institute: Jakarta, Indonesia. In Eng.
This is one in a
series of publications presenting population projections for Indonesia
by province and by age and sex up to the year 2025. The projections are
based on data from the 1990 census and the 1991 Demographic and Health
Survey, and take into account different assumptions concerning
fertility, mortality, and migration.
Correspondence:
University of Indonesia, Faculty of Economics, Demographic
Institute, Jalan Salemba Raya 4, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:30064 Argentina. Instituto Nacional de
Estadística y Censos [INDEC] (Buenos Aires, Argentina).
Population estimates for the period 1950-1990: projections by sex
and age for the period 1990-2050 (medium variant). [Estimaciones
demográficas del periodo 1950-1990: proyecciones por sexo y edad
del periodo 1990-2050 (variante media o recomendada).] Documentos de
Trabajo INDEC, No. 19, LC 94-236725. 1994. 17 pp. Buenos Aires,
Argentina. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are
presented for Argentina based on data from the 1991 census. The
estimates are for total population by sex for individual years from
1950 to 1990. The projections are by age and sex up to 2050. Estimates
of the major demographic indicators are also given for the same
period.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de
Estadística y Censos, Ministerio de Economía y Obras y
Servicios Públicos, Secretaría de Planificación,
Buenos Aires, Argentina. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
62:30065 Bäckman, Jeanette B.;
Schéele, Siv. Uncertainty in population forecasts
for small areas. In: Demography, economy and welfare, edited by
Christer Lundh. 1995. 419-34 pp. Lund University Press: Lund, Sweden;
Chartwell-Bratt: Bromley, England. In Eng.
"This presentation
concerns the estimation of errors in population forecasts for small
areas. Errors can be divided into random errors, errors in assumptions,
errors due to divergence of housing plans and model errors....This
study concentrates on random errors and the total error of the
forecast. A measure is used that is independent of the size of the
area, but depends on the age-class of the population and the duration
of the forecast. The random errors are estimated by a theoretical
model, whereas the total error is estimated by evaluation of old
forecasts....To estimate total forecasting error forecasts from four
municipalities in the County of Stockholm [Sweden] have been
evaluated."
Correspondence: J. B. Bäckman,
Stockholm Office of Research and Statistics, Stockholm, Sweden.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:30066 Birg, Herwig. World
population projections for the 21st century: theoretical
interpretations and quantitative simulations. Research Reports of
the Institute for Population Research and Social Policy (IBS), Vol. 21,
ISBN 3-593-35432-2. LC 95-16629. 1995. 498 pp. Campus Verlag: New York,
New York/Frankfurt, Germany; St. Martin's Press: New York, New York. In
Eng.
"This book builds a bridge between the central
propositions of population theory and demographic projections of global
population growth in the 21st Century. It analyses the historical and
philosophical interrelations between demography, ethics and politics,
and goes on to draw conclusions for the design of population-oriented
policies for the future." The book has chapters on population
theory and human ecology; intercultural differences in human
reproduction and the decline in world fertility; population projections
for the twenty-first century; population growth, development, and the
environment; and ethical aspects of population policy. The projections
are provided in extensive graphs and tables.
Correspondence:
St. Martin's Press, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:30067 Ecuador. Consejo Nacional de
Desarrollo (Quito, Ecuador); Ecuador. Instituto Nacional de
Estadística y Censos [INEC] (Quito, Ecuador); United Nations.
Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile);
United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA] (New York, New York).
Ecuador: population estimates and projections, 1950-2010.
[Ecuador: estimaciones y proyecciones de población, periodo
1950-2010.] Mar 1993. 110, iv pp. Quito, Ecuador. In Spa.
After an
initial chapter on methodology, this report has chapters on population
trends in Ecuador, 1950-1990; population projections by sex and age,
1990-2010; rural and urban populations; and alternative projections to
2010 depending on varying assumptions concerning
fertility.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de
Estadística y Censos, Avenida 10 de Agosto 229, Edificio San
Luis, Quito, Ecuador. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
62:30068 Hirosima, Kiyosi.
Projection of living arrangements of the elderly in Japan:
1990-2010. Institute of Population Problems Working Paper Series,
No. 22, Dec 1995. 22 pp. Institute of Population Problems: Tokyo,
Japan. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"We devise a method relying
mainly upon mortality [trends in Japan] to project the elderly
population by marital status which we call `cohort growth rate ratio
method'....The projected increase of the elderly population over the
twenty years from 1990 increases the elderly in all the types of
household and accounts for most of the elderly's increase in all the
types of...household according to the results of...three projections;
population (official), marital status, and household
status."
Correspondence: Institute of Population
Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki,
Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
62:30069 Hong Kong. Census and Statistics
Department (Hong Kong). Hong Kong population projections
1992-2011. [1992]. iii, 47 pp. Hong Kong. In Eng.
Based on
results from the 1991 census, population projections are presented by
age and sex for Hong Kong up to the year 2011. The report includes a
description of the methodologies and assumptions
used.
Correspondence: Census and Statistics Department,
Demographic Statistics Section, 2/F Koway Court, 111 Chai Wan Road,
Chai Wan, Hong Kong. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
62:30070 Joshi, Heather.
Projections of European population decline: serious demography or
false alarm? In: Europe's population in the 1990s, edited by David
Coleman. 1996. 222-66 pp. Oxford University Press: New York, New
York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The purpose of this chapter is
to review some demographic projections of the foreseeable future [in
Europe]....This chapter looks first at the UN's total population
projections for the broadly defined Europe, and the breakdown of these
into broad regions. We then turn to the sub-regions covered by the EC
and Eurostat's Two Long-term Population Scenarios to the year
2020....After comparing the two agencies' projections for the same
area, we focus further on the EC countries. We review some features of
the aggregate projection, in particular, share in world population and
age structure. Finally we look at individual countries within the EC,
and at the differences among them in terms of the assumptions used in
the projections."
Correspondence: H. Joshi, City
University, Social Statistics Research Unit, Northampton Square, London
EC1V 0HB, England. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
62:30071 Kerr, D.; Kopustas, N.
Projections of households and families for Canada, provinces and
territories, 1994-2016. [Projections des ménages et des
familles pour le Canada, les provinces et les territoires, 1994-2016.]
Pub. Order No. 91-522. ISBN 0-660-58932-X. Oct 1995. 100 pp. Statistics
Canada, Demography Division, Population Projections Section: Ottawa,
Canada. In Eng; Fre.
"This report presents new household and
family projections [for Canada] by type and size, covering the period
1994 to 2016....For the first time, the population projections, which
form the base, were produced using population estimates adjusted for
net census undercoverage, and included two new components, namely,
non-permanent residents and returning Canadians....Four projection
series have been included. They provide a range of plausible
alternatives in the number, size, and characteristics of households and
families, with such breakdowns as family and non-family households, and
lone-parent families."
Correspondence: Statistics
Canada, Demography Division, Population Projections Section, Ottawa,
Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
62:30072 Morocco. Direction de la Statistique.
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Démographiques [CERED] (Rabat,
Morocco). Population projections, 1994-2014.
[Projections de la population, 1994 à 2014.] Mar 1996. 79 pp.
Rabat, Morocco. In Fre.
These are official population projections
for Morocco up to the year 2014. Data are presented separately for
rural and urban populations and by province and prefecture. An analysis
of the projections and a description of the methodology used to prepare
them are included.
Correspondence: Direction de la
Statistique, Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Démographiques,
Rue Mohamed Belhassan el Ouazzani, Haut-Agdal, B.P. 178, Rabat,
Morocco. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:30073 Morrison, Peter A.
Forecasting enrollments during court-ordered desegregation.
Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 15, No. 2, Apr 1996. 131-46
pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Distinctive issues arise
when a demographer must forecast enrollments in a context of
court-ordered desegregation. The key issue studied here is whether
magnet schools have strengthened a district's overall attractiveness to
enrollees from outside or merely siphoned students away from other
nonmagnet schools within the district, without any real districtwide
enrollment gain. To clarify this issue, I analyze patterns of change in
grade progression rates [in Missouri] over several years as magnet
schools were phased in at a large urban school district. Generally,
magnet schools induced little actual gain, merely slowing the overall
weakening of districtwide retention. These findings furnished an
important `reality check' on the judgement for crafting appropriate
forecasting assumptions and the resulting forecast proved reasonably
accurate." A comment by E. Walter Terrie and a rejoinder by
Morrison are included (pp. 65-9).
This is a revised version of a
paper originally presented at the 1994 Annual Meeting of the Population
Association of America.
Correspondence: P. A. Morrison,
RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:30074 Roy, Luc; Guimond, Eric.
Demography perspectives and forecasts of the demand for
electricity. [Perspectives démographiques et
prévision de la demande d'électricité.] Cahiers
Québécois de Démographie, Vol. 24, No. 1, Spring
1995. 87-108 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"Demographic perspectives form an integral part in the
development of electric load forecasts. These forecasts in turn are
used to justify the addition and repair of generating facilities that
will supply power in the coming decades. The goal of this article is to
present how demographic perspectives are incorporated into the electric
load forecasting in Quebec. The first part presents the methods,
hypotheses and results of population and household projections used by
Hydro-Québec in updating its latest development plan. The second
section demonstrates applications of such demographic projections for
forecasting the electric load, with a focus on the residential
sector."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:30075 Russia. Gosudarstvennyi Komitet
Rossiiskoi Federatsii po Statistike. Goskomstat Rossii (Moscow,
Russia). The estimated population of the Russian
Federation. [Predpolozhitel'naya chislennost' naseleniya
Rossiiskoi Federatsii.] 1992. 358 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Population projections are presented for the Russian Federation up
to the year 2016. Data from the 1989 census and vital statistics for
the period 1989-1990 are used. The projections are for the total
population and the economically active population. Presented separately
are projections for the whole country, individual republics, krai
(major regions), and oblasts (districts). Figures are also provided for
major age groups and the rural and urban
population.
Correspondence: Gosudarstvennyi Komitet
Rossiiskoi Federatsii po Statistike, ul. Kirova 39, 103450 Moscow,
Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:30076 Stojanovic, Branislav; Stevanovic,
Radoslav. Model of demogeographic development: physical
plan of Serbia. [Model demogeografskog razvoja: na primeru
prostornog plana Srbije.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 33, No. 1-4, Jan-Dec 1995.
103-17 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
"To
implement one of the major segments of the Physical Plan of Serbia
relating to the projection and distribution of the population in the
plan period (until 2011), a model of demogeographic development of
these regions was formulated and applied....The model gives projections
of demographic development by basic elements, like changes in
population sizes down to the level of micro units,...future changes in
population composition by age and the projected sizes of basic
functional quotas."
Correspondence: R. Stevanovic,
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Institut Drustvenih Nauka, Centar za
Demografska Istrazivanja, Narodnog Fronta 45, 11000
Belgrade,Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
62:30077 Tayman, Jeff. The
accuracy of small-area population forecasts based on a spatial
interaction land-use modeling system. Journal of the American
Planning Association, Vol. 62, No. 1, Winter 1996. 85-98 pp. Chicago,
Illinois. In Eng.
"The present case study of San Diego County
evaluates census tract forecasts based on [a spatial interaction
modeling system known as DRAM/EMPAL]....This case study illustrates
measures that provide a broader look at forecast error. Mean absolute
and algebraic percent errors are the most commonly used measures of
precision and bias....But measures based on the average can overstate
the typical error, because forecast error distributions are often
positively skewed. Skewed error distributions, which occur with greater
frequency in small areas...often result in different values for the
median and the average of the central tendency. Therefore, this study
measures error with both statistics....The unit of analysis in this
study is 1980 census tracts within San Diego County,
California."
Correspondence: J. Tayman, San Diego
Association of Governments, San Diego, CA. Location: Princeton
University Library (UES).
62:30078 Voit, Hermann. Trends in
private households up to 2015. [Entwicklung der Privathaushalte
bis 2015.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 2, Feb 1996. 90-6 pp.
Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Projections of the number and size of
private households in Germany up to the year 2015 are presented.
Methodological aspects are also reviewed, and results are analyzed
separately for the former East and West Germany. Two alternative
projections are discussed.
Location: Princeton University
Library (PF).
62:30079 Werschler, T.; Nault, F.
Projecting interregional migration balances within a multiregional
cohort-component framework. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 28,
No. 5, May 1996. 769-82 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The main
themes of the paper are developed in three parts. First, the setting
for the study is established by reviewing the foundational theory of
multiregional population projections, and by detailing how
interregional migration is projected within this approach. Second, we
will identify the requirements for making multiregional population
projections in Canada and undertake to explain why the conventional
approach to projecting interregional migration produces less than
satisfactory results. Third, an alternative method for projecting
interregional migration is proposed."
Correspondence:
T. Werschler, Statistics Canada, Geography Division, Jean Talon
Building, Ottawa K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton
University Library (UES).
Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.
62:30080 Gu, Baochang. Shanghai:
a case study of negative population growth. Chinese Journal of
Population Science, Vol. 7, No. 3, 1995. 267-76 pp. New York, New York.
In Eng.
"How does the negative increase of population occur?
What are the demographic and nondemographic factors that give rise to
such [a] phenomenon? And what are the implications? The negative
increase of population in Shanghai provided an instance and opportunity
for the research on these issues, which this study is intended to
discuss."
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
