Volume 62 - Number 2 - Summer 1996

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

62:20753 Blackorby, Charles; Bossert, Walter; Donaldson, David. Intertemporal population ethics: critical-level utilitarian principles. Econometrica, Vol. 63, No. 6, Nov 1995. 1,303-20 pp. Evanston, Illinois. In Eng.
"This paper considers the problem of social evaluation in a model where population size, individual lifetime utilities, lengths of life, and birth dates vary across states. In an intertemporal framework, we investigate principles for social evaluation that allow history to matter to some extent. Using an axiom called independence of the utilities of the dead, we provide a characterization of critical-level generalized utilitarian rules. As a by-product of our analysis, we show that social discounting is ruled out in an intertemporal welfarist environment. A simple population-planning example is also discussed."
Correspondence: C. Blackorby, University of British Columbia, Department of Economics, 997-1873 East Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z1, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

62:20754 Blayo, Chantal. The concept of homogeneity in demographic analysis and in the statistical analysis of life histories. [La condition d'homogénéité en analyse démographique et en analyse statistique des biographies.] Population, Vol. 50, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1995. 1,501-17 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This article offers a comparison between different methods of demographic analysis: the new methods of statistical analysis, such as event history analysis, and the more traditional methods developed by Louis Henry and others. The author explores the ability of new methods of statistical analysis to overcome some of the restraints that have limited the traditional analysis of demographic data. She concludes that both approaches are equally dependent on the quality of the data under analysis, and on resolving issues concerning the homogeneity of the population being studied.
Correspondence: C. Blayo, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20755 Breslow, N. E. Statistics in epidemiology: the case-control study. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 91, No. 433, Mar 1996. 14-28 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
This article presents a general review of the major trends in the conceptualization, development, and success of case-control methods for the study of disease causation and prevention. "Recent work on nested case-control, case-cohort, and two-stage case control designs demonstrates the continuing impact of statistical thinking on epidemiology. The influence of R. A. Fisher's work on these developments is mentioned wherever possible. His objections to the drawing of causal conclusions from observational data on cigarette smoking and lung cancer are used to introduce the problems of measurement error and confounding bias."
Correspondence: N. E. Breslow, University of Washington, Department of Biostatistics, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

62:20756 Bura, Stéphane; Guérin-Pace, France; Mathian, Hélène; Pumain, Denise; Sanders, Lena. Multiagent systems and the dynamics of a settlement system. Geographical Analysis, Vol. 28, No. 2, Apr 1996. 161-78 pp. Columbus, Ohio. In Eng.
A multiagent systems model, SIMPOP, is introduced and applied to the analysis of human settlement patterns. "`Multiagent systems' provides a flexible modeling method for dealing with the multiple spatial interactions of cooperation and competition and relations that generate and regulate the evolution of a settlement system. Its principles are described and applied to building an evolutionary model, including a simulation tool. The model combines economic and spatial rules to produce birth, growth, decline, and functional diversification of the towns. The `urban transition' from an agrarian settlement system toward a hierarchical system of trade- and manufacturing-oriented towns and cities can be simulated."
Correspondence: S. Bura, Université Paris VI, 4 place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

62:20757 Casterline, John B. Biosocial models: can demographers ignore them? Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 14, No. 3, Sep 1995. 359-71 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In this article, I offer a highly personal assessment of what biosocial models have to offer to social demography...[based] mainly on the articles in this volume. I begin with a summary of the main lessons about biosocial models that emerge from these articles. I then identify `next steps' in advancing biosocial approaches in social demographic research. Finally, I raise the fundamental question of whether or not social demography must adopt biosocial models if the determinants and consequences of those behaviors of primary interest to the discipline are to be correctly understood."
Correspondence: J. B. Casterline, Population Council, Research Division, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20758 Festy, Patrick. The calculation of period measures. [La mesure des indices du moment.] European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 11, No. 4, Dec 1995. 323-31 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Fre.
With particular reference to two recent articles by Jan Hoem and Gunnar Andersson, the author comments on some problems concerning the calculation of period measures in demography. The focus is on the problems inherent in the synthesis of period measures and in standardization.
For the articles by Hoem and Andersson, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: P. Festy, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20759 Hoem, Jan M. Harmless omission in the standardization of demographic rates. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 11, No. 4, Dec 1995. 313-22 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Standardization is a well-known technique used to avoid compositional effects when schedules of demographic rates are compared for two or more subpopulations. Common sense tells us that such standardization can be omitted when the subpopulations have the same structure with respect to the covariates one could standardize for. The present paper gives a theoretical justification of this intuitive insight and relates it to the theory for harmless model mis-specification in intensity-regression analysis. The idea of the latter notion is that under certain circumstances one can omit factors without producing biases which affect the coefficients of remaining covariates, even when the omitted factors genuinely affect the investigated behavior." The method is illustrated using risk of divorce.
Correspondence: J. M. Hoem, Stockholm University, Demography Division, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20760 Kostova, Tanya; Milner, Fabio A. An age-structured model of population dynamics with dominant ages, delayed behavior, and oscillations. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1995. 359-75, 377 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"An age-structured model of population dynamics with age-dominance is proposed and analyzed. Existence and uniqueness of solutions are established as well as the uniqueness and local asymptotic stability of steady-states. Conditions for convergence to or oscillation about the steady-state are specified in some cases."
Correspondence: T. Kostova, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Mathematics, 7 Noemvri 1, 1040 Sofia, Bulgaria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20761 Levin, B. R.; Bull, J. J.; Stewart, F. M. The intrinsic rate of increase of HIV/AIDS: epidemiological and evolutionary implications. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 132, No. 1, Feb 1996. 69-96 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A method derived from demographic theory is presented for modeling the epidemiology of an infectious disease....The method is employed to examine (1) how changes in transmission rates during different stages of infection affect the rate of spread of HIV/AIDS both in wholly susceptible populations and in populations where the number of potential hosts is limited, (2) the way the relative frequencies of the different stages of infection vary over time, (3) how the rate at which the epidemic is growing (or diminishing) affects the fraction of HIV-infected individuals who manifest the symptoms of AIDS, (4) the effect of treatment on the rate of spread of HIV, and (5) the potential effects of natural selection on the virulence of HIV."
Correspondence: B. R. Levin, Emory University, Department of Biology, Atlanta, GA 30322. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

62:20762 Manton, Kenneth G.; Stallard, Eric; Singer, Burton H. Methods for projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population. In: Studies in the economics of aging, edited by David A. Wise. NBER Project Report, 1994. 41-77 pp. University of Chicago Press: Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
"In this chapter we (i) introduce integrated models of risk factor dynamics and mortality processes, calibrated from longitudinal data, to forecast preventive and curative intervention effects; (ii) compare actuarial forecasts with those based on multivariate stochastic processes; and (iii) introduce models integrating disability dynamics with mortality processes, as a step toward integrating the dynamics of multiple biological levels...."
Correspondence: K. G. Manton, Duke University, Center for Demographic Studies, 2117 Campus Drive, Durham, NC 27706. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

62:20763 Menken, Jane; Coale, Ansley J.; Heuveline, Patrick. Demographic models: the first 50 years of "Population." [Modèles démographiques: les cinquante premières anées de Population.] Population, Vol. 50, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1995. 1,545-64 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The authors review developments in population modeling over the past 50 years. They note that there was a surge in the development of such models during the 1960s and 1970s, which was followed by a relative slowdown. They also note the importance of the articles that have been published in the journal "Population" on the subject of demographic models.
Correspondence: J. Menken, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20764 Schmidbauer, Harald; Rösch, Angi. Populations with constant immigration. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1995. 341-58, 377 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"We consider a Leslie-type model of a one-sex (female) population of natives with constant immigration. The fertility and mortality schedule of the natives may be below or above replacement level. Immigrants retain their fertility and mortality, their children adopt the fertility and mortality of the natives. It is shown how this model may be written in a homogeneous form (without additive term) with a Leslie-type matrix. Reproductive values of individuals in each age group are discussed in terms of a left eigenvector of this matrix. The homogeneous form of our projection model permits the transformation into a Markov chain with transient and recurrent states. The Markov chain is the basis for the definition of genealogies, which incorporate immigration. It is shown that genealogies describe the life histories of individuals in a population with immigration. We calculate absorption times of the Markov chain and relate them to genealogies. This extends the theory originally designed for closed populations to populations with immigration."
Correspondence: H. Schmidbauer, Universität München, Seminar für Angewandte Stochastik, Akademiestrasse 1/IV, 80799 Munich, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20765 Toulemon, Laurent. The standardization of revised rates. [La standardisation des quotients instantanés.] European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 11, No. 4, Dec 1995. 333-42 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Fre.
The author examines some questions concerning the standardization of revised rates in demography. This is done with particular reference to their application to data on divorce in Sweden in recent articles by Jan Hoem and Gunnar Andersson.
For the articles by Hoem and Andersson, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: L. Toulemon, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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