Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.
62:20753 Blackorby, Charles; Bossert, Walter;
Donaldson, David. Intertemporal population ethics:
critical-level utilitarian principles. Econometrica, Vol. 63, No.
6, Nov 1995. 1,303-20 pp. Evanston, Illinois. In Eng.
"This
paper considers the problem of social evaluation in a model where
population size, individual lifetime utilities, lengths of life, and
birth dates vary across states. In an intertemporal framework, we
investigate principles for social evaluation that allow history to
matter to some extent. Using an axiom called independence of the
utilities of the dead, we provide a characterization of critical-level
generalized utilitarian rules. As a by-product of our analysis, we show
that social discounting is ruled out in an intertemporal welfarist
environment. A simple population-planning example is also
discussed."
Correspondence: C. Blackorby, University
of British Columbia, Department of Economics, 997-1873 East Mall,
Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z1, Canada. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPIA).
62:20754 Blayo, Chantal. The
concept of homogeneity in demographic analysis and in the statistical
analysis of life histories. [La condition
d'homogénéité en analyse démographique et
en analyse statistique des biographies.] Population, Vol. 50, No. 6,
Nov-Dec 1995. 1,501-17 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This article
offers a comparison between different methods of demographic analysis:
the new methods of statistical analysis, such as event history
analysis, and the more traditional methods developed by Louis Henry and
others. The author explores the ability of new methods of statistical
analysis to overcome some of the restraints that have limited the
traditional analysis of demographic data. She concludes that both
approaches are equally dependent on the quality of the data under
analysis, and on resolving issues concerning the homogeneity of the
population being studied.
Correspondence: C. Blayo,
Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur,
75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
62:20755 Breslow, N. E.
Statistics in epidemiology: the case-control study. JASA:
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 91, No. 433, Mar
1996. 14-28 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
This article presents
a general review of the major trends in the conceptualization,
development, and success of case-control methods for the study of
disease causation and prevention. "Recent work on nested
case-control, case-cohort, and two-stage case control designs
demonstrates the continuing impact of statistical thinking on
epidemiology. The influence of R. A. Fisher's work on these
developments is mentioned wherever possible. His objections to the
drawing of causal conclusions from observational data on cigarette
smoking and lung cancer are used to introduce the problems of
measurement error and confounding bias."
Correspondence:
N. E. Breslow, University of Washington, Department of
Biostatistics, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton
University Library (SM).
62:20756 Bura, Stéphane;
Guérin-Pace, France; Mathian, Hélène; Pumain,
Denise; Sanders, Lena. Multiagent systems and the dynamics
of a settlement system. Geographical Analysis, Vol. 28, No. 2, Apr
1996. 161-78 pp. Columbus, Ohio. In Eng.
A multiagent systems
model, SIMPOP, is introduced and applied to the analysis of human
settlement patterns. "`Multiagent systems' provides a flexible
modeling method for dealing with the multiple spatial interactions of
cooperation and competition and relations that generate and regulate
the evolution of a settlement system. Its principles are described and
applied to building an evolutionary model, including a simulation tool.
The model combines economic and spatial rules to produce birth, growth,
decline, and functional diversification of the towns. The `urban
transition' from an agrarian settlement system toward a hierarchical
system of trade- and manufacturing-oriented towns and cities can be
simulated."
Correspondence: S. Bura, Université
Paris VI, 4 place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France. Location:
Princeton University Library (UES).
62:20757 Casterline, John B.
Biosocial models: can demographers ignore them? Population
Research and Policy Review, Vol. 14, No. 3, Sep 1995. 359-71 pp.
Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In this article, I offer a
highly personal assessment of what biosocial models have to offer to
social demography...[based] mainly on the articles in this volume. I
begin with a summary of the main lessons about biosocial models that
emerge from these articles. I then identify `next steps' in advancing
biosocial approaches in social demographic research. Finally, I raise
the fundamental question of whether or not social demography must adopt
biosocial models if the determinants and consequences of those
behaviors of primary interest to the discipline are to be correctly
understood."
Correspondence: J. B. Casterline,
Population Council, Research Division, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New
York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:20758 Festy, Patrick. The
calculation of period measures. [La mesure des indices du moment.]
European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de
Démographie, Vol. 11, No. 4, Dec 1995. 323-31 pp. Dordrecht,
Netherlands. In Fre.
With particular reference to two recent
articles by Jan Hoem and Gunnar Andersson, the author comments on some
problems concerning the calculation of period measures in demography.
The focus is on the problems inherent in the synthesis of period
measures and in standardization.
For the articles by Hoem and
Andersson, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: P.
Festy, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du
Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
62:20759 Hoem, Jan M. Harmless
omission in the standardization of demographic rates. European
Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie,
Vol. 11, No. 4, Dec 1995. 313-22 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
with sum. in Fre.
"Standardization is a well-known technique
used to avoid compositional effects when schedules of demographic rates
are compared for two or more subpopulations. Common sense tells us that
such standardization can be omitted when the subpopulations have the
same structure with respect to the covariates one could standardize
for. The present paper gives a theoretical justification of this
intuitive insight and relates it to the theory for harmless model
mis-specification in intensity-regression analysis. The idea of the
latter notion is that under certain circumstances one can omit factors
without producing biases which affect the coefficients of remaining
covariates, even when the omitted factors genuinely affect the
investigated behavior." The method is illustrated using risk of
divorce.
Correspondence: J. M. Hoem, Stockholm University,
Demography Division, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:20760 Kostova, Tanya; Milner, Fabio
A. An age-structured model of population dynamics with
dominant ages, delayed behavior, and oscillations. Mathematical
Population Studies, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1995. 359-75, 377 pp. Amsterdam,
Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"An age-structured
model of population dynamics with age-dominance is proposed and
analyzed. Existence and uniqueness of solutions are established as well
as the uniqueness and local asymptotic stability of steady-states.
Conditions for convergence to or oscillation about the steady-state are
specified in some cases."
Correspondence: T. Kostova,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Mathematics, 7 Noemvri 1,
1040 Sofia, Bulgaria. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
62:20761 Levin, B. R.; Bull, J. J.; Stewart,
F. M. The intrinsic rate of increase of HIV/AIDS:
epidemiological and evolutionary implications. Mathematical
Biosciences, Vol. 132, No. 1, Feb 1996. 69-96 pp. New York, New York.
In Eng.
"A method derived from demographic theory is presented
for modeling the epidemiology of an infectious disease....The method is
employed to examine (1) how changes in transmission rates during
different stages of infection affect the rate of spread of HIV/AIDS
both in wholly susceptible populations and in populations where the
number of potential hosts is limited, (2) the way the relative
frequencies of the different stages of infection vary over time, (3)
how the rate at which the epidemic is growing (or diminishing) affects
the fraction of HIV-infected individuals who manifest the symptoms of
AIDS, (4) the effect of treatment on the rate of spread of HIV, and (5)
the potential effects of natural selection on the virulence of
HIV."
Correspondence: B. R. Levin, Emory University,
Department of Biology, Atlanta, GA 30322. Location: Princeton
University Library (SM).
62:20762 Manton, Kenneth G.; Stallard, Eric;
Singer, Burton H. Methods for projecting the future size
and health status of the U.S. elderly population. In: Studies in
the economics of aging, edited by David A. Wise. NBER Project Report,
1994. 41-77 pp. University of Chicago Press: Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
"In this chapter we (i) introduce integrated models of risk
factor dynamics and mortality processes, calibrated from longitudinal
data, to forecast preventive and curative intervention effects; (ii)
compare actuarial forecasts with those based on multivariate stochastic
processes; and (iii) introduce models integrating disability dynamics
with mortality processes, as a step toward integrating the dynamics of
multiple biological levels...."
Correspondence: K. G.
Manton, Duke University, Center for Demographic Studies, 2117 Campus
Drive, Durham, NC 27706. Location: Princeton University
Library (FST).
62:20763 Menken, Jane; Coale, Ansley J.;
Heuveline, Patrick. Demographic models: the first 50 years
of "Population." [Modèles démographiques:
les cinquante premières anées de Population.] Population,
Vol. 50, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1995. 1,545-64 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The authors review developments in population modeling over the
past 50 years. They note that there was a surge in the development of
such models during the 1960s and 1970s, which was followed by a
relative slowdown. They also note the importance of the articles that
have been published in the journal "Population" on the
subject of demographic models.
Correspondence: J. Menken,
University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust
Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
62:20764 Schmidbauer, Harald; Rösch,
Angi. Populations with constant immigration.
Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1995. 341-58, 377 pp.
Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"We consider
a Leslie-type model of a one-sex (female) population of natives with
constant immigration. The fertility and mortality schedule of the
natives may be below or above replacement level. Immigrants retain
their fertility and mortality, their children adopt the fertility and
mortality of the natives. It is shown how this model may be written in
a homogeneous form (without additive term) with a Leslie-type matrix.
Reproductive values of individuals in each age group are discussed in
terms of a left eigenvector of this matrix. The homogeneous form of our
projection model permits the transformation into a Markov chain with
transient and recurrent states. The Markov chain is the basis for the
definition of genealogies, which incorporate immigration. It is shown
that genealogies describe the life histories of individuals in a
population with immigration. We calculate absorption times of the
Markov chain and relate them to genealogies. This extends the theory
originally designed for closed populations to populations with
immigration."
Correspondence: H. Schmidbauer,
Universität München, Seminar für Angewandte Stochastik,
Akademiestrasse 1/IV, 80799 Munich, Germany. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:20765 Toulemon, Laurent. The
standardization of revised rates. [La standardisation des
quotients instantanés.] European Journal of Population/Revue
Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 11, No. 4, Dec 1995.
333-42 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Fre.
The author examines some
questions concerning the standardization of revised rates in
demography. This is done with particular reference to their application
to data on divorce in Sweden in recent articles by Jan Hoem and Gunnar
Andersson.
For the articles by Hoem and Andersson, see elsewhere in
this issue.
Correspondence: L. Toulemon, Institut National
d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex
14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
