Volume 62 - Number 2 - Summer 1996

L. Demographic and Noneconomic Interrelations

Studies concerned with the relations between population factors as a whole and noneconomic factors. Relations affecting a single demographic variable are coded under the variable concerned and not in this division. Studies concerned equally with economic and social factors are coded under K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population .

L.1. General Social Development and Population

Studies on interrelations with education, religion, social change, and socioeconomic status.

62:20679 Burmeister, Jürgen; Christa, Harald; Schoolmann, Gerhard. Structural differences in the organization of social insurance systems in industrialized countries, with reference to the implications for families: update and extension of the study on nursing care insurance. [Strukturelle Unterschiede in der Ausgestaltung sozialer Sicherungssysteme in Industrieländern im Hinblick auf ihre Bedeutung für die Familien: Aktualisierung und Erweiterung der Untersuchung auf die Absicherung bei Pflegebedürftigkeit.] Materialien zur Bevölkerungswissenschaft, No. 84, 1995. 69 pp. Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
This work contains updated information intended to supplement a 1991 study comparing social insurance systems in Germany and other industrialized countries. Separate chapters deal with support in old age, widowhood, disability, unemployment, illness, parenthood, and nursing care.
For the 1991 publication, see 58:20654.
Correspondence: Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 6, Postfach 5528, 65180 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20680 Fargues, Philippe. From demographic explosion to social rupture. Middle East Report, Vol. 24, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1994. 6-10 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author discusses determinants of the social developments and crises in contemporary Arab countries. The focus is on the relative impact of rapid population growth, rising democratization, and increased demands for products and services. Changes in family size preferences and in the status of women are explored.
Correspondence: P. Fargues, Centre d'Etudes et de Documentation Economique, Juridique et Sociale, 14 Gameyet el-Nisr Street, Mohandessin Dokki, Cairo, Egypt. Location: Princeton University Library (SY).

62:20681 Feucht, Ralf. Burdens on the system of old-age pension financed by adjustable contributions in the context of demographic change. [Lasten der umlagefinanzierten Altersrente vor dem Hintergrund eines demographischen Wandels.] Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 20, No. 2, 1995. 215-31 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"With a view to a long-term securing of old-age pensions on the background of demographic ageing in 1992...the contribution system of old-age pensions [in Germany] was reformed....Due to a changing ratio of old-age pensioners and gainfully employed persons...there is both a revenue and expenditure adjustment....So far children have not been taken into account in old-age pension funds (with the exception of upbringing periods which is problematic with regard to distribution policy), though children tend to have a stabilizing effect on the financing of the old-age pension system. This contribution [attempts] to show that both types of [contribution systems] result in intergenerational and intragenerational effects that cannot be justified in terms of distribution policy. There is no definite proof of these distributive effects being compensated by other measures of family policy."
Correspondence: R. Feucht, Universität Trier, Fachbereich IV, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften/Mathematik, Universitätsring 15, 54286 Trier, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20682 Haveman, Robert; Wolfe, Barbara. Succeeding generations: on the effects of investments in children. ISBN 0-87154-377-X. LC 93-41141. 1994. xi, 331 pp. Russell Sage Foundation: New York, New York. In Eng.
This study examines the status of children in the United States. It uses data up to 1988 from the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics, an ongoing longitudinal survey of 1,700 children. The emphasis is on the deteriorating status of America's children and on the causes of this decline. The authors first examine the factors affecting the chances that children will be economically successful. They then introduce their research in the context of previous studies on the determinants of children's success. Next, they attempt to sort out some of the relationships among the various possible investments in children. The next few chapters look at the determinants of educational attainment, nonmarital births and welfare recipiency, and economic inactivity. A final chapter summarizes the findings of this research and discusses policy implications.
Correspondence: Russell Sage Foundation, 112 East 64th Street, New York, NY 10021. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

62:20683 Henripin, Jacques. Financial transfers from individuals with high fertility to those with low fertility. [Les cadeaux financiers des surfeconds aux sous-feconds.] Population, Vol. 50, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1995. 1,053-77 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"Financial transfers between more fertile and less fertile members of a cohort are made indirectly through payment of taxes and the provision of certain services related to age, such as education, health, and pensions. Those whose fertility is low subsidize their more fertile contemporaries by contributing to the cost of education; the more fertile produce taxpayers who will, in their turn become contributors to health and pension funds. The age distribution of the population plays a crucial part in this process of redistribution, and the author assesses its impact by using stable population models. When a population is relatively old, net transfers between groups may be substantial, and benefit those in groups with low fertility, especially those who have substantially less than the average number of children."
Correspondence: J. Henripin, Université de Montreal, C.P. 6128, Succursale A, Montreal, Quebec H3C 3J7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20684 Höhn, Charlotte; Störtzbach, Bernd. Demographic aging in the member countries of the European Union. [Die demographische Alterung in den Ländern der Europäischen Union.] Geographische Zeitschrift, Vol. 82, No. 4, 1994. 198-213 pp. Stuttgart, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"Despite all remaining political, economical and cultural differences in the member countries of the European Union...population ageing is a common phenomena of all these countries....Many spheres of socio-economic life in the countries of the European Union are already affected by this shifting process....Most of the social security and welfare systems of the industrialized countries in the European Union are mainly based on intergenerational solidarity, a solidarity which is highly burdened by the demographic development. In this respect policy makers have to take into consideration the expected changes in the age structure of the economically active population, changing patterns of labour force participation as well as changes in family and household structures in their task to modify existing systems or to build new systems of social security and welfare under the growing burden of an ageing society."
Correspondence: C. Höhn, Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung, Postfach 5528, 65180 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

62:20685 James, K. S. Demographic transition and education in Kerala. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 30, No. 51, Dec 23, 1995. 3,274-6 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
The impact on education of the fertility decline in the Indian state of Kerala is examined in the light of the state government's decision to close 67 schools in the period 1990-1993 due to declining numbers of children of school age.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

62:20686 Kessler, Denis. The aging of the population is going to affect all intergenerational transfers. [Le vieillissement de la population va affecter tous les transferts intergénérationnels.] Population et Avenir, No. 625, Nov-Dec 1995. 7-14 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The future effects of demographic aging on the transfer of wealth between generations in France are explored. Transfers in the private and public sectors are examined separately. The importance of developing the appropriate social policies to cope with these changes is stressed.
Correspondence: D. Kessler, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, 44 rue de la Tour, 75116 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20687 Nair, V. Balakrishnan. Social development and demographic changes in south India. Focus on Kerala. Statistique de la Suisse, ISBN 81-85880-50-6. 1994. [ix], 216 pp. M D Publications: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
This study consists of an analysis of the demographic transition that has occurred in the southern Indian state of Kerala. "The present study is distinct from earlier studies because it shows the relationship between socioeconomic factors and fertility decline in Kerala through a comparative analysis of...two contrasting districts viz, one developed district of [the southern] and another [less] developed district of [the] northern region of Kerala." The author concludes that the fertility differences between the developed and undeveloped regions studied are due to differences in social development, as measured by education, opportunity costs, and infant mortality rates; cultural factors, such as religion, the value of children, and age at marriage; and differences in the efficiency levels of the family planning programs in the two regions.
Correspondence: M D Publications, M D House, 11 Darya Ganj, New Delhi 110 002, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20688 Nawar, Laila; Lloyd, Cynthia B.; Ibrahim, Barbara. Women's autonomy and gender roles in Egyptian families. In: Family, gender, and population in the Middle East: policies in context, edited by Carla M. Obermeyer. 1995. 147-78 pp. American University in Cairo Press: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"This paper attempts to refine an understanding of personal autonomy as it applies to the lives of women--particularly married women--in contemporary Egypt....The paper draws on recent data to link this profile of women's autonomy to some of the assumptions underlying population programs in Egypt....[We] explore several aspects of women's autonomy, starting with early familial influences on the development of autonomy and proceeding to more contemporary assessments of women's gender awareness and views on autonomy, their role in family decision-making, and more overt manifestations of autonomous behavior (in particular, participation in the formal labor force)....The final portion of the paper looks at gender roles within the family in relation to women's autonomy and includes a discussion of possible implications of differing levels of autonomy for the fertility preferences and behavior of Egyptian women."
Correspondence: L. Nawar, Population Council, Cairo, Egypt. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20689 Pampel, Fred C.; Peters, H. Elizabeth. The Easterlin effect. Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 21, 1995. 163-94 pp. Palo Alto, California. In Eng.
"The Easterlin effect posits cyclical changes in demographic and social behavior as the result of fluctuations in birth rates and cohort size during the post-World War II period....The Easterlin effect has generated a large literature in the several decades since it was first proposed. Our review of the empirical studies notes the diversity of support across behaviors, time periods, and nations....Our review emphasizes both the contingent nature of the Easterlin effect and the way in which conditions have changed in recent decades to reduce the salience of cohort size for social and demographic behavior."
Correspondence: F. C. Pampel, University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program, Campus Box 484, Boulder, CO 80309-0484. Location: Princeton University Library (SSRC).

62:20690 Smith, Johan D. Rapid population growth: effects on the social infrastructures of Southern Africa. Africa Insight, Vol. 25, No. 1, 1995. 61-6 pp. Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
"The aim of this article...is to look at the effects of rapid population growth, as seen in Southern Africa, on social infrastructure."
Correspondence: J. D. Smith, Africa Institute of South Africa, Box 630, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

62:20691 United States. Bureau of the Census. Population Division. International Programs Center (Washington, D.C.). Women in Poland. Profiles of the World's Women, No. WID/95-1, Jul 1995. 8 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This report investigates the status of women in Poland. Tabular information is provided on population trends, marital status, family planning, education, labor force participation, unemployment, income, and women in politics. It is the first in a planned series on the status of women in different countries around the world.
Correspondence: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, International Programs Center, Population Studies Branch, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20692 Veith, Karin; Bucher, Hansjörg. Demographic aging in Germany and the need for care in private households: a regional perspective. [Demographische Alterung und Pflegebedürftigkeit in privaten Haushalten Deutschlands im regionalen Vergleich.] Geographische Zeitschrift, Vol. 82, No. 4, 1994. 214-25 pp. Stuttgart, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"In the Federal Republic of Germany there are regional differences in the ageing process. As a result the increase of people needing care and attention differs regionally, too. The authors deal with the following questions: Which particular regions will be most affected by the ageing process and to which extent? How is the proportion of people needing care and those providing it in private households affected by this? To which extent can private households cope with the demands of nursing elderly people at home?" The focus is on the period 1992 to 2010.
Correspondence: K. Veith, Bundesforschungsanstalt für Landeskunde und Raumordnung, Am Michaelshof 8, 53177 Bonn, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

L.2. Demographic and Political Factors

Studies on the political aspects of population growth, including the demographic impact of war.

62:20693 Barkley, Andrew P.; McMillan, John. Political freedom and the response to economic incentives: labor migration in Africa, 1972-1987. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 45, No. 2, Dec 1994. 393-406 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Policy reforms in developing countries often address in isolation either an economic or a political problem. This study examines the interaction between political institutions and responses of labor migration to economic incentives. Migration data from thirty-two African countries were used to quantify the statistical relationships between political institutions and labor migration out of agriculture. Regression results indicate that the presence of political freedoms and civil liberties increases the responsiveness of labor migration to economic incentives."
Correspondence: A. P. Barkley, Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics, Manhattan, KS 66506-4011. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

62:20694 Blum, Alain; Gousseff, Catherine. From Soviet demographic space to contemporary divisions. [De l'espace démographique soviétique au morcellement contemporain.] Revue d'Etudes Comparatives Est-Ouest, Vol. 26, No. 4, Dec 1995. 143-69, 200 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"The present article examines the relationship which, prior to independence, existed among the various component peoples of the USSR; a start is made with behavioral demographic patterns, in order to understand how they have influenced the contemporary situation. Two major aspects are examined. The consequences of the Russian presence in Central Asia are studied through changes in fertility rates, beginning with an enquiry on this subject carried out in Uzbekistan in 1992....In the second part, the article considers how the different levels of territorial division and the specific nature of the Soviet territory led to particular alignments of Soviet geographical space which partially anticipated the carving-up into fifteen states. This present study has been carried out by using detailed data from the 1989 census to analyze population movements between place of birth and domicile. In particular, it shows how republican frontiers could already, to some extent, be regarded as national frontiers."
Correspondence: A. Blum, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

62:20695 Labbé, Morgane. A demographic interpretation of the East-West frontier. [Une lecture démographique de la frontière Est-Ouest.] Revue d'Etudes Comparatives Est-Ouest, Vol. 26, No. 4, Dec 1995. 55-74, 196-7 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"Analysis of the effects of politics on populations helps towards an understanding of recent demographic developments in the countries of Eastern Europe. The greatest differences between Western Europe and Eastern Europe are to be found in their mortality rates. These differences arise from the public health systems, for the worsening of adult mortality was common to the whole of Europe. The higher mortality in East European countries can thus be explained by the problems of setting up a preventive policy, since this calls for the encouragement of a new kind of relationship between the individual and the institution. From this institutional perspective, it can be seen that the divide between East and West does not operate in family contexts, such as marriage, divorce or fertility, when the legal conditions were very different."
Correspondence: M. Labbé, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

62:20696 McNicoll, Geoffrey. Demography in the unmaking of civil society. Population Council Research Division Working Paper, No. 79, 1995. 31 pp. Population Council, Research Division: New York, New York. In Eng.
"A major question in development studies is whether the curtailment of civil liberties seen in the successful `development states'--notably, those of East Asia--is a cost worth paying to achieve rapid economic growth. The question implies a tradeoff between liberty (roughly gauged by the strength of civil society) and security (in the sense of a stable political and social order). The tradeoff has implications for demographic change, working through the resulting pace of economic growth and through effects on government capacity to promote demographic objectives. Those implications are explored in this essay, drawing mainly on recent Indonesian and Philippine history."
Correspondence: Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20697 Trebici, Vladimir. Territorial losses of Romania in the summer of 1940: a demographic account. [Pierderile teritoriale ale Romaniei in vara anului 1940: bilant demografic.] Probleme Economice, No. 32, 1995. 19 pp. Academia Romana, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice: Bucharest, Romania; Centrul de Informare si Documentare Economica Bucuresti: Bucharest, Romania. In Rum.
The territorial losses experienced by Romania in 1940 and subsequent changes affecting the national territory during World War II are described. The study focuses on the demographic consequences of these changes for the population of Romania and particularly on its ethnic composition.
Correspondence: V. Trebici, Romanian Academy, Centre of Demographic Research, Calea 13 Septembrie No. 73, 76117 Bucharest, Romania. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

L.3. Demographic Factors and Health

Studies on nutrition and health, including psychological aspects and sex behavior. Studies that are concerned with the impact of these factors on fertility are coded under F.5. Factors Other Than Contraception Affecting Fertility .

62:20698 Botting, Bev. A review of the health of our children, decennial supplement. Population Trends, No. 82, Winter 1995. 27-31 pp. London, England. In Eng.
This article, "the second in OPCS's latest series of decennial supplements, brings together data from a wide variety of sources to paint a picture of the lifestyle and health of British children in the 1970s and 1980s. This review presents the main findings from the volume."
Correspondence: B. Botting, Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, Health Statistics, St. Catherine's House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20699 Caldwell, John C.; Caldwell, Pat. The African AIDS epidemic. Scientific American, Vol. 274, No. 3, Mar 1996. 62-8 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The scourge of AIDS falls hard on parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Half of all cases are found within a chain of countries home to just 2 percent of the world's population. Unlike the scenario in most regions, here the virus causing the disease spreads almost entirely through heterosexual intercourse. Only one factor seems to correlate with the exceptionally high susceptibility: lack of male circumcision."
Correspondence: J. C. Caldwell, Australian National University, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Health Transition Centre, G.P.O. Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

62:20700 Cohen, Barney; Trussell, James. Preventing and mitigating AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa: research and data priorities for the social and behavioral sciences. ISBN 0-309-05480-X. LC 96-11347. 1996. xi, 356 pp. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
This is a report from the Panel on Data and Research Priorities for Arresting AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa. The panel was set up by the Committee on Population of the National Research Council's Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Its purpose is to consider the needs for research and data in the social and behavioral sciences, in order to help improve and extend existing programs and to devise more effective strategies for new programs aimed at preventing HIV transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa. The report begins by presenting information on the societal context and the basic epidemiology of the HIV epidemic. It then proceeds to identify strategies for preventing its further spread and for mitigating its effects. "This report offers recommendations in five critical areas: monitoring of the overall status and context of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Africa, gathering of information on sexual behaviors associated with the spread of the epidemic, primary HIV-prevention strategies, strategies for mitigating the impact of the epidemic, and the need for building an indigenous capacity for AIDS-related research in Africa." A summary of the report, in both English and French, is published separately.
Correspondence: National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Box 285, Washington, D.C. 20055. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20701 Commission Scientifique de Démographie (Paris, France). Populations of the South and health: journeys and horizons. A tribute to Pierre Cantrelle. [Populations du sud et santé: parcours et horizons. Hommage à Pierre Cantrelle.] ISBN 2-7099-1276-7. 1995. 302 pp. Institut Français de Recherche Scientifique pour le Développement en Coopération, ORSTOM Editions: Paris, France. Distributed by Commission Scientifique de Démographie, 72 route d'Aulnay, 93143 Bondy Cedex, France. In Eng; Fre.
This is a collection of studies presented in either English or French by authors from various disciplines. The studies address aspects of the demography of developing countries with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa. The publication was prepared as a tribute to the French scholar and demographer Pierre Cantrelle. The first part is devoted to the work of Cantrelle himself. The second part is on the theme of observation, and contains five studies on problems of data collection. The third part contains eight studies that are concerned with data analysis. The fourth part consists of two papers that examine the contribution of demographic research to population policy. Topics covered include infant mortality, fertility, and reproductive health.
Correspondence: Institut Français de Recherche Scientifique pour le Développement en Coopération, 24 rue Bayard, 75008 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20702 Dunnell, Karen. Population review: (2) are we healthier? Population Trends, No. 82, Winter 1995. 12-8 pp. London, England. In Eng.
This is the second in a planned series reviewing the changing composition of the population of the United Kingdom. "This article describes how OPCS statistics can be used to monitor health, to try and answer the question `are we healthier?' Three aspects of health are covered: mortality, morbidity, and behaviour known to have an impact on health. The discussion covers only those statistics which measure health directly, rather than those deriving from the use of health services. The article does not put forward any particular definition of health nor does it attempt to draw together a single measure of health. It concentrates on the last 10-20 years and aims to cover the whole spectrum of age and sex groups. The model can be applied to any subgroup of the population." The geographical focus is on England and Wales.
For the first article in this series, written by Bob Armitage and published in 1995, see 62:10560.
Correspondence: K. Dunnell, Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, Health Statistics, St. Catherine's House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20703 Holtzman, Deborah; Rubinson, Richard. Parent and peer communication effects on AIDS-related behavior among U.S. high school students. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 27, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1995. 235-40, 268 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Data from a 1989 national probability sample of 8,098 high school students in the United States indicate that young people's discussions about the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) with parents and with peers are highly correlated and have opposite effects on behavior: Students who discussed HIV with their parents were less likely than those who did not to have had multiple sex partners, to have had unprotected sexual intercourse and to have ever injected drugs; on the other hand, students who discussed HIV with their peers were more likely than those who did not to have had multiple partners and to have had unprotected sexual intercourse. Subgroup analyses show that young women were influenced more by HIV discussions with parents, while young men were influenced more by discussions with peers; some communication effects differed by race and ethnicity. Students who received HIV instruction in school were more likely to have talked about HIV with both parents and peers."
Correspondence: D. Holtzman, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Office of Surveillance and Analysis, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20704 Lam, Nina S.-N.; Fan, Ming; Liu, Kam-biu. Spatial-temporal spread of the AIDS epidemic, 1982-1990: a correlogram analysis of four regions of the United States. Geographical Analysis, Vol. 28, No. 2, Apr 1996. 93-107 pp. Columbus, Ohio. In Eng.
The authors "applied correlogram analysis to county-level AIDS data of four regions--the Northeast..., California, Florida, and Louisiana--for the period 1982-1990 to characterize the spatial-temporal spread of the AIDS epidemic. Correlograms computed from yearly incidence rates differ substantially among these four regions, revealing regional differences in the spatial patterns and intensity of AIDS spread. A general trend of increasing spread to rural America, however, can still be detected. Contagious spread was predominant in the Northeast throughout the nine-year period, whereas California was dominated by hierarchical spread through time. The spatial-temporal changes of AIDS incidence patterns were most drastic in Florida, where the correlograms show hierarchical spread in the early years and then contagious spread in the later years. As a representative region for most other states in the United States, Louisiana has low spatial autocorrelation and no definite spatial pattern of spread."
Correspondence: N. S.-N Lam, Louisiana State University, Department of Geography, Baton Rouge, LA 70803. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

62:20705 Löytönen, Markku; Arbona, Sonia I. Forecasting the AIDS epidemic in Puerto Rico. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 42, No. 7, Apr 1996. 997-1,010 pp. Tarrytown, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The purpose of this study is to model and predict the diffusion of the AIDS epidemic in Puerto Rico. Specifically we aim at identifying primary influences in the geographical distribution of the population affected with AIDS to produce a reasonable projection of the time and space paths that will be followed by the epidemic. The study is based on AIDS incidence data from 1982 through 1992....The results indicate a clear hierarchical tendency at the beginning of the epidemic, later a wave-like diffusion pattern is also observed. While the absolute number of new cases is expected to remain higher in the more urbanized areas, the relative growth of AIDS cases is likely to become much higher in the rural municipalities. The forecasting procedure employed here is applicable to population with diverse epidemiological profiles."
Correspondence: M. Löytönen, University of Turku, Department of Geography, 20500 Turku, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

62:20706 McCauley, Ann P.; Salter, Cynthia; Kiragu, Karungari; Senderowitz, Judith. Meeting the needs of young adults. Population Reports, Series J: Family Planning Programs, Vol. 23, No. 3, Oct 1995. 43 pp. Johns Hopkins University, Center for Communication Programs, Population Information Program [PIP]: Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
This report concerns the health needs of adolescents around the world. It points out that one-fifth of the world's population is aged between 10 and 19, and that each year some 15 million women under age 20 give birth, accounting for almost 20% of all births worldwide. "Surveys in some developing countries show between 20% to 60% of current pregnancies and most recent births among married and unmarried women under 20 were mistimed or unwanted...."
Correspondence: Johns Hopkins University, Center for Communication Programs, Population Information Program, 111 Market Place, Suite 310, Baltimore, MD 21202-4012. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20707 Omran, Abdel R.; Yunes, Joao; Solis, Jose A.; Lopez, Guillermo. Reproductive health in the Americas. ISBN 92-75-12047-1. 1992. xii, 593 pp. Pan American Health Organization [PAHO]: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This work, which is also available in Spanish, concerns patterns of human reproduction in Latin America. It contains a selection of papers by various authors whose aims are "(a) to describe for the Americas the various reproductive patterns; (b) to evaluate the impact on health of family formation patterns and changing attitudes toward reproduction; (c) to provide the most up-to-date accounts of methods of fertility regulation; (d) to display the existing experiences in reproductive health; and (e) to identify unmet needs in service and research in these areas, and suggest strategies for filling the gaps."
Correspondence: Pan American Health Organization, 525 23rd Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20708 Orubuloye, I. O.; Caldwell, John C.; Caldwell, Pat. The cultural, social and attitudinal context of male sexual behaviour in urban south-west Nigeria. Health Transition Review, Vol. 5, No. 2, Oct 1995. 207-22 pp. Canberra, Asutralia. In Eng.
"From 1989 onward a research program based at Ondo State University, Nigeria, investigated the social and behavioural context of the sexually transmitted disease and AIDS epidemics....Between 1989 and 1993 the researchers reached the conclusion that premarital and extramarital sexual activities were on a sufficient scale in Ondo State to maintain an STD epidemic and possibly to maintain an AIDS epidemic....The researchers also concluded that the economic returns to young women from commercial sex were so substantial and the current and later social sanctions so weak that no government intervention was likely to reduce the inflow of recruits to the occupation sufficiently to stem the STD epidemic or reduce the risk of a major AIDS epidemic. Clearly something would be achieved by a program aimed at increasing the practice of safe sex, especially the use of condoms, by everyone participating in sexual networking, particularly prostitution....The research increasingly suggested that the best chance of halting the AIDS epidemic and mitigating the impact of STDs was a change in male sexual behaviour."
Correspondence: I. O. Orubuloye, Ondo State University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Ado-Ekiti, Ondo State, Nigeria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20709 Philipson, Tomas; Posner, Richard A. The microeconomics of the AIDS epidemic in Africa. Population and Development Review, Vol. 21, No. 4, Dec 1995. 835-48, 922, 924-5 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"The AIDS epidemic has ravaged sub-Saharan Africa, particularly the Central and Eastern regions. Although data are poor, the authors contend that a rational-choice approach, which has proved illuminating with respect to AIDS in the United States, can be fruitfully applied to the African experience as well. They suggest that differences in the prevalence of prostitution and other nonmonogamous sexual activity, the prevalence of other sexually transmitted diseases, and the real economic costs of condoms can be used to explain differences between the U.S. and African patterns of the epidemic, including the positive correlation in Africa between income and the likelihood of being infected by the AIDS virus, in contrast to the negative correlation in the United States. They also argue that some of the policy interventions that seem promising in the U.S. context, such as partner notification, are unlikely to be effective in Africa, and that the most effective method of controlling the African epidemic might be through measures that increase economic equality between women and men."
Correspondence: T. Philipson, University of Chicago, Department of Economics, 1126 East 59th Street, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20710 Rimm, Eric B.; Klatsky, Arthur; Grobbee, Diederick; Stampfer, Meir J. Review of moderate alcohol consumption and reduced risk of coronary heart disease: is the effect due to beer, wine, or spirits? British Medical Journal, Vol. 312, No. 7033, Mar 23, 1996. 731-6 pp. London, England. In Eng.
This study attempts to "review the effect of specific types of alcoholic drink on coronary risk....[It is designed as a] systematic review of ecological, case-control, and cohort studies in which specific associations were available for consumption of beer, wine, and spirits and risk of coronary heart disease....Results from observational studies, where alcohol consumption can be linked directly to an individual's risk of coronary heart disease, provide strong evidence that all alcoholic drinks are linked with lower risk. Thus, a substantial portion of the benefit is from alcohol rather than other components of each type of drink."
Correspondence: E. B. Rimm, Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Nutrition, Boston, MA 02115. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

62:20711 Rollet, Catherine. State influence on the health of the child. [La santé du premier âge sous le regard de l'état.] Cahiers Québécois de Démographie, Vol. 23, No. 2, Autumn 1994. 257-95 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"This article follows the major historical steps with respect to the protection of the child aged less than three years in France and in Canada over the course of a century. Analysis focuses first on the motives behind increased intervention by political leaders on behalf of the child; next on the protection of the welfare of the mother and child; and finally on the evolution of demographic characteristics, in relation with processes of social and geographic differentiation. A remarkable convergence is observed between the two countries, despite veritable differences in political pressures and actions, traceable back to certain common structural traits, and linked with emerging patterns of international exchanges favouring the modelling of a new culture regarding childhood."
Correspondence: C. Rollet, Université de Versailles, Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20712 Stewart, M. Kathryn; Stanton, Cynthia K.; Festin, Mario; Jacobson, Nora. Issues in measuring maternal morbidity: lessons from the Philippines Safe Motherhood Survey Project. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 27, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1996. 29-35 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This report explores the limitations of survey research for obtaining population-based data to define the magnitude of maternal morbidity in settings that lack a well-developed infrastructure to support women's health requirements. The experience gained in the Philippines Safe Motherhood Survey Project is described. The drawbacks and benefits of the preliminary validation and qualitative phase of research conducted to develop the questionnaire are presented. The survey results indicate that interview-based diagnosis, although it implies the commitment of considerable resources, may be the only way to obtain an idea of the prevalence of some kinds of maternal morbidity in a given population, information necessary to the improvement of obstetric care and women's overall health status."
Correspondence: M. K. Stewart, Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys, 11785 Beltsville Drive, Calverton, MD 20705-3119. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:20713 Thomas, Richard. Alternative population dynamics in selected HIV/AIDS modeling systems: some cross-national comparisons. Geographical Analysis, Vol. 28, No. 2, Apr 1996. 108-25 pp. Columbus, Ohio. In Eng.
"This paper examines how demographic representations for the different risk populations influence the epidemic outputs of a simple process-based HIV/AIDS model. Alternative demographic specifications are presented in conjunction with transmission rules for both community and regional settings. Then, the existence, or nonexistence, of equilibrium solutions to these various models is determined to evaluate whether the forecast AIDS series will persist indefinitely or eventually terminate. Last, simulations for countries with distinctive birth and death rates are used to summarize the effect of this variation on the timing and size of the epidemic. All the results assume an epidemic that is unaffected by the practice of safer sex."
Correspondence: R. Thomas, University of Manchester, School of Geography, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, England. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

62:20714 Tulchinsky, Theodore H.; Varavikova, Elena A. Addressing the epidemiologic transition in the former Soviet Union: strategies for health system and public health reform in Russia. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 86, No. 3, Mar 1996. 313-20 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is a review of Russia's health crisis. It provides an analysis of the financing, organization, and future needs of the Russian health sector. The authors conclude that "longevity is declining; mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases and trauma are high and rising; maternal and infant mortality are high. Vaccine-preventable diseases have reappeared in epidemic form. Nutrition status is problematic." They go on to address the basic reforms that are needed to improve the health situation of the country.
Correspondence: T. H. Tulchinsky, Hadassah-Hebrew University, School of Public Health, Ein Karem, Jerusalem 91010, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

L.4. Demographic Factors and Human Genetics

Studies on consanguinity and isolates, inbreeding, and twinning.

62:20715 Weller, Bob. Biosocial models of demographic behavior. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 14, No. 3, Sep 1995. 277-371 pp. Kluwer Academic: Norwell, Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"A workshop on biosocial models of demographic behavior was organized to provide information to members of the Social Sciences and Population Study Section (SSP), the group entrusted by the [U.S.] National Institutes of Health (NIH) with the responsibility for conducting the first level of peer review of demographic applications submitted to NIH for possible funding....This [special issue] contains papers that focus upon various stages of the life cycle and explore the importance of biosocial variables in explaining selected aspects of human behavior."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Kluwer Academic Publishers Group, P.O. Box 322, 3300 AH Dordrecht, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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