62:10742 Antcliff,
Susan. Introduction to DYNAMOD: a dynamic population
microsimulation model. DYNAMOD Technical Paper, No. 1, ISBN
0-85889-385-1. Sep 1993. 42 pp. University of Canberra, National Centre
for Social and Economic Modelling [NATSEM]: Canberra, Australia. In
Eng.
"This paper is the first in a series which will document the
dynamic microsimulation model (DYNAMOD) being developed by the National
Centre for Social and Economic Modelling to model economic and
demographic change in the Australian population over time. We describe
the general structure of the model, with a focus on the areas where it
has departed from the practices generally adopted in the past. This
relates particularly to the ageing of the population and storage of
simulation results."
Correspondence: University of
Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, G.P.O. Box
563, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
62:10743 Clarke,
Martin. A micro-simulation approach to demographic and
social accounting. In: Social and demographic accounting, edited
by Geoffrey J. D. Hewings and Moss Madden. 1995. 195-221 pp. Cambridge
University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"In this chapter we first address some of the issues faced in
implementing account-based models and describe how the use of
micro-analytical techniques can offer a potentially attractive
alternative solution method....[The author] attempts to illustrate some
of the model-building design and implementation issues that are faced
in a practical application--that of small area demographic updating and
projection. The application described concerns the development of a
detailed household and individual projection model for the City of
Leeds [England], where a full range of demographic and social processes
were considered. We also highlight a number of extensions to this model
that allow household income and expenditure patterns to be
computed."
Correspondence: M. Clarke, University of Leeds,
School of Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:10744 Das Gupta,
Prithwis. The links between standardization of rates and
decomposition of rate differences. In: American Statistical
Association, 1992 Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1992].
241-6 pp. American Statistical Association [ASA]: Alexandria, Virginia.
In Eng.
"Demographers have traditionally used the technique of
direct standardization to eliminate the compositional effects from the
overall rates. The technique of decomposition deals with finding the
additive contributions of the effects of different factors to the
overall difference between two rates. This paper is an attempt to show
explicitly the linkage between these two areas." The concepts are
illustrated with data from South Korea and the United
States.
Correspondence: P. Das Gupta, U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
62:10745 Day, N. E.;
Gore, S. M.; De Angelis, D. Acquired immune deficiency
syndrome predictions for England and Wales (1992-97): sensitivity
analysis, information, decision. Journal of the Royal Statistical
Society, Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol. 158, No. 3, 1995. 505-24
pp. London, England. In Eng.
Some implications of the use of the
back-calculation method for estimating future trends in HIV infections
and AIDS incidence in England and Wales are explored. "This paper
explores in...detail some aspects of the latest projections which have
only been hinted at in the report published by the Public Health
Laboratory Service in 1993. The value of additional information on the
HIV epidemic in discriminating between different, otherwise equally
plausible, scenarios is demonstrated. The role of the backcalculation
approach in determining whether, and how, the incubation distribution
has been affected by increased uptake of pre-AIDS prophylaxis and
treatment is discussed."
Correspondence: N. E. Day,
Institute of Public Health, Medical Research Council Biostatistics
Unit, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 2SR, England. Location:
Princeton University Library (PF).
62:10746 Freedman,
Vicki A.; Wolf, Douglas A. A case study on the use of
multiple imputation. Demography, Vol. 32, No. 3, Aug 1995. 459-70
pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Multiple imputation is a relatively
new technique for dealing with missing values on items from survey
data. Rather than deleting observations for which a value is missing,
or assigning a single value to incomplete observations, one replaces
each missing item with two or more values. Inferences then can be made
with the complete data set. This paper presents an application of
multiple imputation using the 1987-1988 [U.S.] National Survey of
Families and Households. We impute several binary indicators of whether
the respondent's elderly mother/mother-in-law is married. Descriptive
statistics are then presented for the sample of adult children with an
unmarried mother or mother-in-law."
Correspondence: V. A.
Freedman, Agency for Health Care Policy and Research, 2101 E. Jefferson
Street, Suite 500, Rockville, MD 20852. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
62:10747 Graham,
Alison J.; Hawkes, Christopher H. Twin study using
mortality data: a new sampling method. International Journal of
Epidemiology, Vol. 24, No. 4, Aug 1995. 758-62 pp. New York, New
York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors "evaluate the success of
a novel approach to twin studies using death discordant twin pairs in a
disease of low prevalence....[Data are from] a population study based
on all registered deaths...[in] England and Wales, classified under the
ICD code 3352.2 (motor neuron disease [MND]) for the period 1979-1989
inclusive. From the above database of 10,872 people, individuals born
after 31 December 1899 were traced in the Birth Indices for England &
Wales to enable identification of possible twins. In all 131 twin pairs
were found....This new twin study method is clearly viable, and has
produced a large unbiased sample compared to that possible using
traditional methods. It relies heavily on the accuracy of death
certificates and zygosity reporting by living co-twins, but is possibly
the only way of collecting twins in rare
conditions."
Correspondence: C. H. Hawkes, Ipswich
Hospital, Department of Clinical Neurology, Heath Road, Ipswich,
Suffolk IP4 5PD, England. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
62:10748 Hsieh, John
J. Conditional and generalized survival functions and
expected lifelengths with applications in life table analysis and
demography. In: American Statistical Association, 1992 Proceedings
of the Social Statistics Section. [1992]. 234-40 pp. American
Statistical Association [ASA]: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The
objectives of this article are threefold: (1) To develop probabilistic
derivation of various conditional and generalized survival functions
and expected lifelength functions in terms of conventional life table
functions, (2) to present methods of estimating these functions and (3)
to provide some applications of the functions so estimated to life
table analysis and demography in terms of the stationary population
model."
Correspondence: J. J. Hsieh, University of Toronto,
12 Queen's Park Crescent West, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A8, Canada.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:10749 Keilman,
Nico; van Imhoff, Evert. Cohort quantum as a function of
time-dependent period quantum for non-repeatable events.
Population Studies, Vol. 49, No. 2, Jul 1995. 347-52 pp. London,
England. In Eng.
"The paper discusses translation formulae for
time-dependent cohort and period quantum for non-repeatable events.
Cohort quantum expressions are investigated for two cases: one in which
period quantum, and another in which the sum of the period rates
decreases linearly with time. In both cases the assumption is that
period tempo does not change. Sufficient conditions are given for the
situation in which the cohort quantum simply equals the period quantum
measured at the time when the cohort reaches the mean age of the period
schedule of age-specific rates, given that the period rate sum is a
polynomial function of time."
For a related article by Keilman,
published in 1994, see 60:40787.
Correspondence: N.
Keilman, Statistisk Sentralbyra, Division for Demography and Living
Conditions, P.B. 8131 Dep., 0033 Oslo 1, Norway. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:10750 Kim, Young
J.; Schoen, Robert. Populations with quadratic exponential
growth. Johns Hopkins Population Center Papers on Population, No.
WP 95-3, 1995. 19, [5] pp. Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene
and Public Health, Population Center: Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
In this paper, the authors develop further aspects of their concept
of hyperstable population models introduced in earlier studies.
"Hyperstable models generalize conventional stable populations by
allowing vital rates to change over time while specifying the
relationship between the net maternity and birth trajectories. Assuming
a fixed proportional distribution of births by age of mother, we show
that if age-specific net maternity changes exponentially over both age
and time, the corresponding birth trajectory is quadratic exponential.
The process of convergence to hyperstability is the same as the process
of convergence to classical stability."
Correspondence:
Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health,
Population Center, 615 North Wolfe Street, Room 2300, Baltimore, MD
21205-2179. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:10751 Kim, Young
J.; Schoen, Robert. Populations with sinusoidal birth
trajectories. Johns Hopkins Population Center Papers on
Population, No. WP 95-2, Apr 1995. 19, [6] pp. Johns Hopkins
University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Population Center:
Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"The present paper advances current
knowledge of cycling populations by relating a sinusoidal birth wave to
its accompanying wave of age-specific net maternity. It provides
explicit relationships for the effects of amplitude and period length
on the phase shift and relative amplitudes of the net maternity and
population waves."
Correspondence: Johns Hopkins
University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Population Center, 615
North Wolfe Street, Room 2300, Baltimore, MD 21205-2179.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:10752 Ordorica,
Manuel. The development and application of an
expologistical function for the analysis of congruity among demographic
sources between 1940 and 1990: the case of Mexico. [Desarrollo y
aplicacion de una funcion expologistica para el analisis de congruencia
de las fuentes demograficas entre 1940 y 1990: el caso de Mexico.]
Revista Mexicana de Sociologia, Vol. 55, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1993. 3-16 pp.
Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"The purpose of this
study is to adjust a mathematical function to population development in
Mexico between 1940 and 1990 and to measure the degree of congruity
between information from population censuses and statistics. The open
expologistical function accurately reproduces the development of birth,
death and international migration rates."
Correspondence:
M. Ordorica, El Colegio de Mexico, Centro de Estudios Demograficos y de
Desarrollo Urbano, Camino al Ajusco 20, 10740 Mexico, DF, Mexico.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
62:10753 Rogers,
Andrei. Combatting demographic innumeracy with social
accounting principles: heterogeneity, selection, and the dynamics of
interdependent populations. In: Social and demographic accounting,
edited by Geoffrey J. D. Hewings and Moss Madden. 1995. 180-94 pp.
Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In
Eng.
"This chapter focuses on demographic innumeracies committed in
mathematical representations of demographic processes involving
multiple interdependent populations and goes on to show
how...demographic accounting principles...can be used to identify some
of the misspecifications that are thereby introduced." The demographic
accounting principles referred to are those developed by Richard Stone.
"First, we examined the impacts of heterogeneity and selection on
population dynamics. Second, we considered the prevalence rate and its
problems. Then we focussed on the net rate and its biases. Our
principal conclusion is that aggregate measures of multi-state
population dynamics depend on initial conditions and therefore become
increasingly biased as the effects of selection make themselves
felt."
Correspondence: A. Rogers, University of Colorado,
Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program, Campus Box 484,
Boulder, CO 80309-0484. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
62:10754
Schmertmann, Carl P. An introduction to
nonparametric regression in demographic research. European Journal
of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 11, No. 2, 1995.
169-92 pp. Hingham, Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with
sum. in Fre.
"My intent in this...paper is to alert demographers to
the existence of useful new methods, known collectively as
nonparametric (NP) regressions, that have been made possible by
reductions in computing costs over the last several decades. NP
regressions use brute force computing power to free researchers from
the need to make strong a priori assumptions about functional forms,
thus allowing greater flexibility and accuracy in modelling
relationships than in standard parametric approaches. Increased
flexibility and computing power do not eliminate the central role of
theory in guiding social science research, but they free empirical
analysis from the requirement that relationships between variables must
have mathematically convenient shapes....I begin this paper with a
discussion of bias-variance tradeoffs in regression models, followed by
a discussion of localized regression. Subsequent sections discuss
specific NP techniques for bivariate and multivariate regressions, with
examples. Throughout this paper I will illustrate with data from 17,851
mothers aged 15-45 who were interviewed in the 1988 U.S. National
Maternal and Infant Health Survey."
Correspondence: C. P.
Schmertmann, Florida State University, Center for the Study of
Population, 659-C Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:10755 Sembajwe,
Israel. Evaluation of demographic data: some selected
procedures. RIPS Monograph Series, No. 8, ISBN 9964-971-10-9.
1993. v, 56 pp. University of Ghana, Regional Institute for Population
Studies [RIPS]: Legon, Ghana. In Eng.
This publication describes
procedures for evaluating the quality of demographic data, with
particular reference to data on the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa.
Both direct and indirect methods of data evaluation are
described.
Correspondence: University of Ghana, Regional
Institute for Population Studies, P.O. Box 96, Legon, Ghana.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:10756 Stelder,
Dirk; Oosterhaven, Jan. Consistency in regional
demo-economic models: the case of the northern Netherlands. In:
Social and demographic accounting, edited by Geoffrey J. D. Hewings and
Moss Madden. 1995. 132-44 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New
York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
The authors present a model of the
northern provinces of the Netherlands and examine the issues related to
the development of a consistent integrated approach in such regional
demo-economic models. They consider problems of consistency at both the
demand and supply side of the labor market, as well as for the model as
a whole, and note that consistency problems are very
data-specific.
Correspondence: D. Stelder, University of
Groningen, Department of Economics, Institute of Economic Research,
P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
62:10757 Zeifman, A.
I. On the estimation of probabilities for birth and death
process. Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 32, No. 3, Sep 1995.
623-34 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
"Let X(t) be a
non-homogeneous birth and death process. In this paper we develop a
general method of estimating bounds for the state probabilities for
X(t), based on inequalities for the solutions of the forward Kolmogorov
equations."
Correspondence: A. I. Zeifman, Vologda State
Pedagogical Institute, S. Orlova 6, 160600 Vologda, Russia.
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).
