Volume 62 - Number 1 - Spring 1996

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

62:10742 Antcliff, Susan. Introduction to DYNAMOD: a dynamic population microsimulation model. DYNAMOD Technical Paper, No. 1, ISBN 0-85889-385-1. Sep 1993. 42 pp. University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling [NATSEM]: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper is the first in a series which will document the dynamic microsimulation model (DYNAMOD) being developed by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling to model economic and demographic change in the Australian population over time. We describe the general structure of the model, with a focus on the areas where it has departed from the practices generally adopted in the past. This relates particularly to the ageing of the population and storage of simulation results."
Correspondence: University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, G.P.O. Box 563, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:10743 Clarke, Martin. A micro-simulation approach to demographic and social accounting. In: Social and demographic accounting, edited by Geoffrey J. D. Hewings and Moss Madden. 1995. 195-221 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"In this chapter we first address some of the issues faced in implementing account-based models and describe how the use of micro-analytical techniques can offer a potentially attractive alternative solution method....[The author] attempts to illustrate some of the model-building design and implementation issues that are faced in a practical application--that of small area demographic updating and projection. The application described concerns the development of a detailed household and individual projection model for the City of Leeds [England], where a full range of demographic and social processes were considered. We also highlight a number of extensions to this model that allow household income and expenditure patterns to be computed."
Correspondence: M. Clarke, University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:10744 Das Gupta, Prithwis. The links between standardization of rates and decomposition of rate differences. In: American Statistical Association, 1992 Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1992]. 241-6 pp. American Statistical Association [ASA]: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"Demographers have traditionally used the technique of direct standardization to eliminate the compositional effects from the overall rates. The technique of decomposition deals with finding the additive contributions of the effects of different factors to the overall difference between two rates. This paper is an attempt to show explicitly the linkage between these two areas." The concepts are illustrated with data from South Korea and the United States.
Correspondence: P. Das Gupta, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:10745 Day, N. E.; Gore, S. M.; De Angelis, D. Acquired immune deficiency syndrome predictions for England and Wales (1992-97): sensitivity analysis, information, decision. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol. 158, No. 3, 1995. 505-24 pp. London, England. In Eng.
Some implications of the use of the back-calculation method for estimating future trends in HIV infections and AIDS incidence in England and Wales are explored. "This paper explores in...detail some aspects of the latest projections which have only been hinted at in the report published by the Public Health Laboratory Service in 1993. The value of additional information on the HIV epidemic in discriminating between different, otherwise equally plausible, scenarios is demonstrated. The role of the backcalculation approach in determining whether, and how, the incubation distribution has been affected by increased uptake of pre-AIDS prophylaxis and treatment is discussed."
Correspondence: N. E. Day, Institute of Public Health, Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 2SR, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

62:10746 Freedman, Vicki A.; Wolf, Douglas A. A case study on the use of multiple imputation. Demography, Vol. 32, No. 3, Aug 1995. 459-70 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Multiple imputation is a relatively new technique for dealing with missing values on items from survey data. Rather than deleting observations for which a value is missing, or assigning a single value to incomplete observations, one replaces each missing item with two or more values. Inferences then can be made with the complete data set. This paper presents an application of multiple imputation using the 1987-1988 [U.S.] National Survey of Families and Households. We impute several binary indicators of whether the respondent's elderly mother/mother-in-law is married. Descriptive statistics are then presented for the sample of adult children with an unmarried mother or mother-in-law."
Correspondence: V. A. Freedman, Agency for Health Care Policy and Research, 2101 E. Jefferson Street, Suite 500, Rockville, MD 20852. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:10747 Graham, Alison J.; Hawkes, Christopher H. Twin study using mortality data: a new sampling method. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 24, No. 4, Aug 1995. 758-62 pp. New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors "evaluate the success of a novel approach to twin studies using death discordant twin pairs in a disease of low prevalence....[Data are from] a population study based on all registered deaths...[in] England and Wales, classified under the ICD code 3352.2 (motor neuron disease [MND]) for the period 1979-1989 inclusive. From the above database of 10,872 people, individuals born after 31 December 1899 were traced in the Birth Indices for England & Wales to enable identification of possible twins. In all 131 twin pairs were found....This new twin study method is clearly viable, and has produced a large unbiased sample compared to that possible using traditional methods. It relies heavily on the accuracy of death certificates and zygosity reporting by living co-twins, but is possibly the only way of collecting twins in rare conditions."
Correspondence: C. H. Hawkes, Ipswich Hospital, Department of Clinical Neurology, Heath Road, Ipswich, Suffolk IP4 5PD, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:10748 Hsieh, John J. Conditional and generalized survival functions and expected lifelengths with applications in life table analysis and demography. In: American Statistical Association, 1992 Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1992]. 234-40 pp. American Statistical Association [ASA]: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The objectives of this article are threefold: (1) To develop probabilistic derivation of various conditional and generalized survival functions and expected lifelength functions in terms of conventional life table functions, (2) to present methods of estimating these functions and (3) to provide some applications of the functions so estimated to life table analysis and demography in terms of the stationary population model."
Correspondence: J. J. Hsieh, University of Toronto, 12 Queen's Park Crescent West, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A8, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:10749 Keilman, Nico; van Imhoff, Evert. Cohort quantum as a function of time-dependent period quantum for non-repeatable events. Population Studies, Vol. 49, No. 2, Jul 1995. 347-52 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The paper discusses translation formulae for time-dependent cohort and period quantum for non-repeatable events. Cohort quantum expressions are investigated for two cases: one in which period quantum, and another in which the sum of the period rates decreases linearly with time. In both cases the assumption is that period tempo does not change. Sufficient conditions are given for the situation in which the cohort quantum simply equals the period quantum measured at the time when the cohort reaches the mean age of the period schedule of age-specific rates, given that the period rate sum is a polynomial function of time."
For a related article by Keilman, published in 1994, see 60:40787.
Correspondence: N. Keilman, Statistisk Sentralbyra, Division for Demography and Living Conditions, P.B. 8131 Dep., 0033 Oslo 1, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:10750 Kim, Young J.; Schoen, Robert. Populations with quadratic exponential growth. Johns Hopkins Population Center Papers on Population, No. WP 95-3, 1995. 19, [5] pp. Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Population Center: Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
In this paper, the authors develop further aspects of their concept of hyperstable population models introduced in earlier studies. "Hyperstable models generalize conventional stable populations by allowing vital rates to change over time while specifying the relationship between the net maternity and birth trajectories. Assuming a fixed proportional distribution of births by age of mother, we show that if age-specific net maternity changes exponentially over both age and time, the corresponding birth trajectory is quadratic exponential. The process of convergence to hyperstability is the same as the process of convergence to classical stability."
Correspondence: Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Population Center, 615 North Wolfe Street, Room 2300, Baltimore, MD 21205-2179. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:10751 Kim, Young J.; Schoen, Robert. Populations with sinusoidal birth trajectories. Johns Hopkins Population Center Papers on Population, No. WP 95-2, Apr 1995. 19, [6] pp. Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Population Center: Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"The present paper advances current knowledge of cycling populations by relating a sinusoidal birth wave to its accompanying wave of age-specific net maternity. It provides explicit relationships for the effects of amplitude and period length on the phase shift and relative amplitudes of the net maternity and population waves."
Correspondence: Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Population Center, 615 North Wolfe Street, Room 2300, Baltimore, MD 21205-2179. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:10752 Ordorica, Manuel. The development and application of an expologistical function for the analysis of congruity among demographic sources between 1940 and 1990: the case of Mexico. [Desarrollo y aplicacion de una funcion expologistica para el analisis de congruencia de las fuentes demograficas entre 1940 y 1990: el caso de Mexico.] Revista Mexicana de Sociologia, Vol. 55, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1993. 3-16 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"The purpose of this study is to adjust a mathematical function to population development in Mexico between 1940 and 1990 and to measure the degree of congruity between information from population censuses and statistics. The open expologistical function accurately reproduces the development of birth, death and international migration rates."
Correspondence: M. Ordorica, El Colegio de Mexico, Centro de Estudios Demograficos y de Desarrollo Urbano, Camino al Ajusco 20, 10740 Mexico, DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

62:10753 Rogers, Andrei. Combatting demographic innumeracy with social accounting principles: heterogeneity, selection, and the dynamics of interdependent populations. In: Social and demographic accounting, edited by Geoffrey J. D. Hewings and Moss Madden. 1995. 180-94 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"This chapter focuses on demographic innumeracies committed in mathematical representations of demographic processes involving multiple interdependent populations and goes on to show how...demographic accounting principles...can be used to identify some of the misspecifications that are thereby introduced." The demographic accounting principles referred to are those developed by Richard Stone. "First, we examined the impacts of heterogeneity and selection on population dynamics. Second, we considered the prevalence rate and its problems. Then we focussed on the net rate and its biases. Our principal conclusion is that aggregate measures of multi-state population dynamics depend on initial conditions and therefore become increasingly biased as the effects of selection make themselves felt."
Correspondence: A. Rogers, University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program, Campus Box 484, Boulder, CO 80309-0484. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:10754 Schmertmann, Carl P. An introduction to nonparametric regression in demographic research. European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 11, No. 2, 1995. 169-92 pp. Hingham, Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"My intent in this...paper is to alert demographers to the existence of useful new methods, known collectively as nonparametric (NP) regressions, that have been made possible by reductions in computing costs over the last several decades. NP regressions use brute force computing power to free researchers from the need to make strong a priori assumptions about functional forms, thus allowing greater flexibility and accuracy in modelling relationships than in standard parametric approaches. Increased flexibility and computing power do not eliminate the central role of theory in guiding social science research, but they free empirical analysis from the requirement that relationships between variables must have mathematically convenient shapes....I begin this paper with a discussion of bias-variance tradeoffs in regression models, followed by a discussion of localized regression. Subsequent sections discuss specific NP techniques for bivariate and multivariate regressions, with examples. Throughout this paper I will illustrate with data from 17,851 mothers aged 15-45 who were interviewed in the 1988 U.S. National Maternal and Infant Health Survey."
Correspondence: C. P. Schmertmann, Florida State University, Center for the Study of Population, 659-C Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:10755 Sembajwe, Israel. Evaluation of demographic data: some selected procedures. RIPS Monograph Series, No. 8, ISBN 9964-971-10-9. 1993. v, 56 pp. University of Ghana, Regional Institute for Population Studies [RIPS]: Legon, Ghana. In Eng.
This publication describes procedures for evaluating the quality of demographic data, with particular reference to data on the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. Both direct and indirect methods of data evaluation are described.
Correspondence: University of Ghana, Regional Institute for Population Studies, P.O. Box 96, Legon, Ghana. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:10756 Stelder, Dirk; Oosterhaven, Jan. Consistency in regional demo-economic models: the case of the northern Netherlands. In: Social and demographic accounting, edited by Geoffrey J. D. Hewings and Moss Madden. 1995. 132-44 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
The authors present a model of the northern provinces of the Netherlands and examine the issues related to the development of a consistent integrated approach in such regional demo-economic models. They consider problems of consistency at both the demand and supply side of the labor market, as well as for the model as a whole, and note that consistency problems are very data-specific.
Correspondence: D. Stelder, University of Groningen, Department of Economics, Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:10757 Zeifman, A. I. On the estimation of probabilities for birth and death process. Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 32, No. 3, Sep 1995. 623-34 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
"Let X(t) be a non-homogeneous birth and death process. In this paper we develop a general method of estimating bounds for the state probabilities for X(t), based on inequalities for the solutions of the forward Kolmogorov equations."
Correspondence: A. I. Zeifman, Vologda State Pedagogical Institute, S. Orlova 6, 160600 Vologda, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

Copyright © 1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.