Volume 61 - Number 3 - Fall 1995

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

61:30764 Burch, Thomas K. Estimating the Goodman, Keyfitz, Pullum kinship equations: an alternative procedure. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 5, No. 2, 1995. 161-70, 183 pp. Langhorne, Pennsylvania/Basel, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"In a pioneering paper, Goodman, Keyfitz and Pullum...presented a general analytic system for studying the relationships between mortality and fertility and kin numbers. For stable populations with varying regimes of fertility and mortality, they provide formulas to calculate average numbers of kin, by category of kin, for females of various ages....This note illustrates an alternative procedure for evaluating the kinship integrals, using computer software developed since their paper first appeared....The procedure involves two steps: 1) analytic expressions are found to represent empirical data on age-specific fertility and survivorship; 2) these expressions are substituted into the theoretical integral equations for kin numbers...which are then evaluated numerically....The procedure is illustrated for children and grandchildren for 1981 Canadian data...."
For the study by Leo Goodman et al., see 40:3393 and 42:21501.
Correspondence: T. K. Burch, University of Western Ontario, Department of Sociology, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30765 Dionne, Claude. Intergenerational relations and some models derived from them. [Les relations intergenerationnelles et quelques modeles qui en decoulent.] European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 11, No. 1, 1995. 85-101 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"Lotka's model of population consists of a dynamic process of population renewal which connects fertility, survival and age-structure with each other. It requires the assumption of stability of demographic parameters. We suggest here a static approach, which relates different cohorts to each other by chains (links, bonds) of descent and ascent, and which does not require any assumptions about demographic stability."
Correspondence: C. Dionne, Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec, 200 Chemin Sainte-Foy, Saint-Andre, Quebec, Quebec G1R 5T4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30766 Hill, Allan G.; Brass, William. The analysis of maternity histories. ISBN 2-87040-045-4. [1992]. 498 pp. Editions Derouaux-Ordina: Liege, Belgium; International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
This is a collection of studies on the analysis of maternity histories. The works were originally presented at a meeting organized by the IUSSP Committee on the Comparative Analysis of Fertility in the early 1980s. "The volume in Part I starts by covering some quite general methodological issues. Then in Part II, several authors present different aspects of the analysis of the reliability of the data on the maternity histories. Part III focuses more on the interpretation of the analyses. Parts IV and V include some case studies from high and low fertility countries including comparisons of data from birth histories with accurate vital registration data."
Correspondence: Editions Derouaux-Ordina, 10 place Saint Jacques, 4000 Liege, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30767 Krishnan, Parameswara. Modeling demographic catastrophes. In: American Statistical Association, 1993 Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1993]. 32-4 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"Stochastic process approximations of the occurrence of demographic catastrophes are presented. Data on Indian famines and Canadian fertility are employed to illustrate the models."
Correspondence: P. Krishnan, University of Alberta, Department of Sociology, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30768 Scrivener, Glen; Lloyd, David C. E. F. Allocating census data to general practice populations: implications for study of prescribing variation at practice level. British Medical Journal, Vol. 311, No. 6998, Jul 15, 1995. 163-6 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The aims of our study were...to make use of the new directory [which links postcodes and enumeration districts for the United Kingdom] to place patients of general practices in their enumeration district of residence and...to test the accuracy to which the population structure for practices can be predicted from census data using proportional allocation techniques at different geographical levels." The authors "assign census data to general practice populations and...test accuracy of different procedures for estimating the proportion of patients aged over 64. [They find that] although predicted values correlated with actual values, the failure of the allocation procedures to correctly predict values, especially at the extremes, casts doubt on the validity of similar techniques for allocating census variables to general practice populations." Data are from the 1991 census of the United Kingdom.
Correspondence: G. Scrivener, University of Leeds, Academic Unit of General Practice, Prescribing Research Unit, Leeds LS2 9NZ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:30769 Termote, Marc; Bonaguidi, Alberto. Stable multiregional population as a tool for economic analysis. An application to Italy, 1977-1986. [La population multiregionale stable comme instrument d'analyse conjoncturelle. Une application a l'Italie, 1977-1986.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 22, No. 2, Fall 1993. 313-38 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"The intensity of short-term fluctuations in a population's demographic behaviour is often overshadowed by a force of inertia resulting from the structures inherited from past behaviour. Stable population theory produces an effective way to eliminate this 'weight of the past'. This article presents the results of an application of this approach in analyzing changes in the fertility, migration and mortality regime of the Italian population during the 1977-1986 period."
Correspondence: M. Termote, Universite du Quebec, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique-Urbanisation, 3465 rue Durocher, Montreal, Quebec H2X 2C6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30770 Toulemon, Laurent. Logistic regression and hazard analysis: two course papers. [Regression logistique et regression sur les risques: deux supports de cours.] INED Dossiers et Recherches, No. 46, Mar 1995. 34, 15 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This publication includes two separate papers developed as supporting documentation for methodological courses. The first one concerns logistic regression and the second deals with hazard analysis. Both texts focus on how regression works and on the necessary conditions for the application of such methods.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30771 Wood, S. N. Obtaining birth and mortality patterns from structured population trajectories. Ecological Monographs, Vol. 64, No. 1, Feb 1994. 23-44 pp. Tempe, Arizona. In Eng.
"A method is presented for unravelling the demographic equation for structured populations. A solution to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation is constructed using spline functions and this is fitted to stage-structured population data in such a way that the solution is smooth, positive, and does not imply negative death rates. The smoothness of the surface, and hence the complexity of the population model, is determined in a statistically optimum manner using cross validation. Time- and age-dependent death rates can be obtained as well as time-dependent birth rates. Confidence intervals are obtained for population size and death rates that give a 95% probability that the true population dynamics are within the intervals. Practical application of the method is demonstrated, and comparison made with three alternative methods."
Correspondence: S. N. Wood, Imperial College at Silwood Park, NERC Centre for Population Biology, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:30772 Xie, Zhenming; Lou, Binbin. Collection and application of qualitative data: the method of focus group discussion. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 7, No. 1, 1995. 39-44 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The authors outline the use of focus group discussions in population research in China, with a focus on advantages and disadvantages when compared with quantitative research methods.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30773 Yashin, Anatoli I.; Vaupel, James W.; Iachine, Ivan A. Correlated individual frailty: an advantageous approach to survival analysis of bivariate data. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 5, No. 2, 1995. 145-59, 183 pp. Langhorne, Pennsylvania/Basel, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"We develop a new model of bivariate survival based on the notion of correlated individual frailty. We analyze the properties of this model and suggest a new approach to the analysis of bivariate data that does not require a parametric specification--but permits estimation--of the form of the hazard function for individuals. We empirically demonstrate the advantages of the model in the statistical analysis of bivariate data."
Correspondence: A. I. Yashin, Odense University Medical School, Winslowparken 17, 1, 5000 Odense C, Denmark. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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