Volume 61 - Number 3 - Fall 1995

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

61:30086 Tsubouchi, Yoshihiro. Population of Southeast Asia in the mid-nineteenth century: population counts appearing in the Journal of the Indian Archipelago and Eastern Asia. Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 32, No. 3, Dec 1994. 255-305 pp. Kyoto, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
"This paper aims to compile and evaluate the information on the population of Southeast Asia in the Mid-nineteenth century appearing in the Journal of the Indian Archipelago and Eastern Asia, which was published from 1847 to 1860 in Singapore. The journal contains considerable numbers of population figures for the pre-census period,...[concerning] Sumatra, the Malay Peninsula, the Straits Settlements, Java, Bali, Lombok, Sulawesi, Borneo, and other parts of insular Southeast Asia. The general tendency of the population counts of insular Southeast Asia in this period by the Europeans is toward underestimation. This is especially true for the inland areas of the larger islands, which were remote from the European sphere of influence. Populations of the small islands located on commercial routes are reported relatively accurately or even overestimated. Populations of the European settlements are sometimes overestimated and their growth rates tend to be exaggerated."
Correspondence: Y. Tsubouchi, Kyoto University, Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Shimoadachicho 46, Yoshida, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30087 Wilmoth, John R. Population issues. Perspectives: past and present. American Enterprise, Vol. 5, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1994. 30-5 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author examines print coverage of population issues over the last five decades and describes how perspectives have changed over time. He notes that "since World War II the majority view of population within the American media has been that rapid population growth threatens the welfare of humans and other species."
Correspondence: J. R. Wilmoth, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

61:30088 Batutis, Michael J. Evaluation of 1990 population estimates and the future of the Census Bureau subnational estimates program. In: American Statistical Association, 1993 Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1993]. 123-30 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, the paper establishes a historical context for the 1990 evaluation program. In so doing, the paper attempts to show how the philosophy toward population estimates, as explicated in official publications, has shaped the current evaluation program. Second, the paper attempts to show, in broad outline, the changes in philosophy that are required to move the population estimates program toward the year 2000 and beyond."
Correspondence: M. J. Batutis, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233-0001. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30089 Belgium. Institut National de Statistique (Brussels, Belgium). Total population of Belgium as at January 1, 1994. [Population totale et Belge au 1.1.1994.] Statistiques Demographiques, No. 3A, 1994. 231 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
Population estimates based on data from the Belgian National Population Register are presented for January 1, 1994. Data are included on population characteristics, including sex, age, and marital status down to the communal level.
Correspondence: Institut National de Statistique, 44 rue de Louvain, Centre Albert, 8e etage, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30090 Cornelsen, Carsten. First results of the microcensus, April 1994. [Erste Ergebnisse des Mikrozensus April 1994.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 4, Apr 1995. 279-86 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Results from the April 1994 microcensus of Germany are presented, together with some comparative data for earlier years. Information is included on population growth, labor force participation by age and sex, unemployment, and source of livelihood. Comparisons are made between the former East and West Germany.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

61:30091 Davis, Sam T. Evaluation of postcensal county estimates for the 1980s. In: American Statistical Association, 1993 Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1993]. 131-6 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
This paper examines various issues concerning the evaluation of the official population estimates prepared for U.S. counties. "The first is their overall performance for the whole nation. We are also interested in identifying which types of counties had better estimates, and in that vein we examined the county estimates grouped by population size and estimated growth between 1980 and 1990."
Correspondence: S. T. Davis, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30092 Japan. Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Population estimates as of October 1, 1994. Population Estimates Series, No. 67, May 1995. 82 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
This volume contains population estimates by age and sex for Japan as a whole and for individual prefectures for 1994. Much of the data is presented separately for Japanese and foreigners.
Correspondence: Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30093 Leib, Jurgen; Mertins, Gunter. Pocket atlas of the 1987 population census. [Taschenatlas Volkszahlung 1987.] ISBN 3-89057-012-7. LC 93-216687. 1992. 160 pp. Holler und Zwick: Brunswick, Germany. In Ger.
A selection of maps and tables from the 1987 population census of West Germany is presented and discussed. Comparisons are made with data from the 1970 census.
Correspondence: Holler und Zwick, Homburgstrasse 11, 38116 Brunswick, Germany. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

61:30094 Monnier, Alain; de Guibert-Lantoine, Catherine. The demographic situation of Europe and the developed countries overseas: an annual report. Population: English Selection, Vol. 6, 1994. 203-22 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
The authors report on population trends in Europe since 1985. Aspects considered include population change, natality and fertility, nuptiality and divorce, abortion, and mortality.
For a previous report in this series, see 60:30075.
Correspondence: A. Monnier, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30095 Steenkamp, H. A. Population estimates for the RSA by magisterial district and province, 1995. Research Report/Navorsingsverslag, No. 219, ISBN 0-947459-62-6. 1995. ix, 76 pp. University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research: Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
Population estimates for South Africa and its regions and districts are presented for 1995 using data from the 1991 census as well as other official sources. The estimates are presented separately for the four major population groups.
Correspondence: University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research, P.O. Box 392, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30096 United States. National Center for Health Statistics [NCHS] (Hyattsville, Maryland). Vital and health statistics: Russian Federation and United States, selected years 1980-93. Vital and Health Statistics, Series 5: International Vital and Health Statistics Report, No. 9, Pub. Order No. DHHS (PHS) 95-1485. Jun 1995. viii, 28 pp. Hyattsville, Maryland. In Eng.
"This report contains 18 tables covering population size, natural increase in population, birth rates, life expectancy, infant mortality, death rates, incidence of notifiable diseases, AIDS, levels of health personnel, hospital utilization, and ambulatory care in the Russian Federation and the United States. Also included are a glossary of terms used in this report where differences in definitions between the two countries are noted and a special appendix with selected data from the Russian Federation by urban-rural status."
Correspondence: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, 6525 Belcrest Road, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30097 Zakee, R. Population growth in Western Europe in 1994 continues to decrease. [Bevolkingsgroei in West-Europa in 1994 verder afgenomen.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 43, No. 4, Apr 1995. 19-22 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"Fertility in most western [European] countries in 1994 decreased less than it did in 1993....Monthly patterns show few births in most European countries in the second quarter of 1993 and in the third quarter of 1994." Information is also provided on mortality and life expectancy, natural increase, and migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

61:30098 Bourcier de Carbon, Philippe. The population of France: the timetable of a scheduled contraction. [Population de la France: Chronique d'une implosion annoncee.] Population et Avenir, No. 621, Jan-Feb 1995. 6-11 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author reviews recent official population projections for France up to 2050. He notes that, whatever assumptions are made concerning future trends in fertility, there will be a dramatic increase in demographic aging. The implications of the increased financial burden that the population of working age will have to shoulder are discussed.
Correspondence: P. Bourcier de Carbon, Alliance Nationale Population et Avenir, 35 rue Marbeuf, 75008 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30099 Bouvier, Leon F.; Poston, Dudley L. Thirty million Texans? ISBN 1-881290-20-4. LC 92-75793. 1993. [x, 107] pp. Center for Immigration Studies: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this book, we examine how the population of Texas will grow and what this will mean to the state's institutions and its people." Chapters are included on the population situation in 1990, projections to 2020, education, the labor force, the changing nature of Texas culture, the quality of life in the twenty-first century, and beyond 2020.
Correspondence: Center for Immigration Studies, 1815 H Street NW, Suite 1010, Washington, D.C. 20006-3604. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

61:30100 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). Household projections for Japan by prefecture: 1990-2010. Institute of Population Problems Research Series, No. 283, Mar 31, 1995. 227 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Household projections are presented by prefecture for Japan up to the year 2010.
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30101 Rees, Philip. Key issues in subnational projection models. School of Geography Working Paper, No. 94/8, Jun 1994. iv, 25 pp. University of Leeds, School of Geography: Leeds, England. In Eng.
"The paper presents the issues that must be addressed by the designers of population projection models at subnational scales....No ideal choice set is offered for the many design decisions that must be made, but careful consideration of each issue should lead to the development of an effective and usable projection model." The geographical focus is on Great Britain and European Community member countries.
Correspondence: University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30102 Schulz, Erika. Population trends in Germany up to the year 2010, with prospects to 2040. [Bevolkerungsentwicklung in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2010 mit Ausblick auf 2040.] Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung, Wochenbericht, Vol. 60, Jul 22, 1993. 393-404 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Ger.
Population projections for Germany are presented up to the year 2010, and the outlook up the year 2040 is briefly discussed. Two different migration scenarios are used, and comparisons are made between the former East and West Germany.
Location: University of Southern California Library, Los Angeles CA.

61:30103 Secomski, Kazimierz. Present and forecasted demographic problems in Poland to the year 2010. Polish Population Review, No. 5, 1994. 232-53 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
The author describes potential future demographic trends in Poland, with attention to economic conditions, the labor force, demographic aging, family allowances, excess mortality, population size, and age distribution.
Correspondence: K. Secomski, Government Population Commission, Plac Trzech Krzyzy 5, 00507 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30104 Shorter, Frederic C.; Sendek, Robert; Bayoumy, Yvette. Computational methods for population projections: with particular reference to development planning. 2nd ed. ISBN 0-87834-021-1. LC 94-40153. 1995. viii, 125 pp. Population Council: New York, New York. In Eng.
This manual explains the logical foundations of population projections and the kinds of inputs required to make them, particularly in developing countries, using the FIVFIV software distributed and supported by the Population Council. "FIVFIV comes in four languages, English, French, Spanish, and Turkish....It runs on a personal computer (PC) under DOS 2.0 or higher if the PC has at least 256 Kb of memory--more is better, of course. It runs on either floppy-disk or hard-disk systems. Anyone who has used earlier releases of FIVFIV can use their old control files. Release 11.0 includes all the original options and maintains full upward compatibility." New features in release 11.0 include "a page of indicators concerning fertility, mortality, migration, and population growth year by year for the first 15 years (ask for REGROUP to get it), which can be extended by chaining projections. Migration assumptions can be made in four different ways. These assumptions give the user control over whether they refer to actual migration during the period or to survivors of those individuals who migrated during the period." An IBM/PC version of FIVFIV is included on a diskette.
For the first edition, published in 1974, see 41:1774.
Correspondence: Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30105 Stillwell, John. The adjustment of population and household projections for strategic planning purposes. School of Geography Working Paper, No. 94/19, Oct 1994. 27 pp. University of Leeds, School of Geography: Leeds, England. In Eng.
"This paper reports on an applied research project...to investigate the validity of the existing OPCS/DoE [Department of the Environment] 1989-based population and household projections for local authority areas in the light of data from the 1991 [U.K.] Census and other sources. This paper contains a description of historical and projected population and household change, a comparison of the 1989-based projections for mid-1991 with the revised final mid-1991 rebased population estimates, a time series analysis of migration trends, a comparison of the assumptions about marital status used in the official projections with those recorded by the 1991 Census, and a comparison of the headship rate assumptions used in the projections with those identified in the 1991 Census."
Correspondence: University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30106 United Kingdom. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS]. Social Survey Division (London, England). National population projections, 1992-based. Series PP2, No. 19, ISBN 0-11-691617-6. 1995. vii, 51 pp. London, England. In Eng.
Population projections are presented for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries up to the year 2032, based on 1992 population estimates. Following the introductory text describing the methodology used and an appendix detailing sex and age structure of the projected population by country, the detailed projections are provided on microfiche.
Correspondence: Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, Social Survey Division, St. Catherine's House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30107 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Latin America: population by calendar years and single ages. Period 1990-2000. [America Latina: poblacion por anos calendario y edades simples. Periodo 1990-2000.] Boletin Demografico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 28, No. 55, Jan 1995. 282 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
Data are presented for Latin America as a whole and for the 20 individual countries on population by sex and single years of age for calendar years from 1990 to 2000.
Correspondence: UN Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

61:30108 Chauvel, Louis. Rural depopulation: 1954-1990. [La desertification du territoire: 1954-1990.] Observations et Diagnostics Economiques, No. 51, Oct 1994. 89-121, 184-5 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to present evidence for a long term link between employment and population [in rural France]. A model is built in order to describe the interaction between employment, migration and natural population increase over 1962-1990. This shows how declining departments are bound within a vicious mechanism: while the decline of local employment leads to population outflow, the population decline contributes to a further employment fall."
Correspondence: L. Chauvel, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques, Cellule de Sociologie, 69 quai d'Orsay, 75007 Paris, France. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

61:30109 Horiuchi, Shiro. The cohort approach to population growth: a retrospective decomposition of growth rates for Sweden. Population Studies, Vol. 49, No. 1, Mar 1995. 147-63 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Demographic changes affect population growth not only during the same period, but also in later years. A method for measuring those later effects is developed in this paper, by adopting a cohort perspective of population growth and decomposing the current growth rate into contributions of past demographic changes. Its application to 210 years of Swedish demographic history indicates that events several decades ago could exert substantial impacts on current population growth. The decomposition results reflect some typical patterns of demographic and epidemiological transitions as well as such historically unique events as the baby boom of the mid-1940s and the emigration boom to the United States. In addition, the results provide a quantitative explanation for the puzzling combination of the positive actual and negative intrinsic growth rates in recent Sweden."
Correspondence: S. Horiuchi, Rockefeller University, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10021. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30110 Jordaan, Johannes; Mfono, Zanele; Tshabalala, Mandla. Population growth--our time bomb: the solution to South Africa's population problem. ISBN 0-627-01789-4. LC 92-183206. 1991. 154 pp. J. L. van Schaik: Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
The authors make the case that South Africa is suffering from overpopulation, and that the country's economic and social problems are not only exacerbated by rapid population growth, but cannot be resolved unless the leaders of the country's major ethnic and cultural groups can agree on policies and measures to bring the rate of population growth quickly downward. Particular attention is given to the attitudes of black South Africans toward population issues. The various programs in both public and private sectors that exist and could be further developed in the area of family planning are described.
Correspondence: J. L. van Schaik, 1064 Arcadia Street, Hatfield, Pretoria, South Africa. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

61:30111 Penev, Goran. The demographic situation in border area settlements of Serbia, 1981-1991. [Demografska situacija u pogranicnim naseljima Srbije u periodu 1981-1991.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 32, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1994. 121-38 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
"This paper analyses population dynamics in 180 settlements located in border areas of Serbia with Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania....The author argues that the border area settlements of Serbia constitute the emigration zone....The author differentiates between two types of border area settlements with regard to natural movement: (1) high fertility versus low mortality settlements...and (2) settlements...displaying negative rates of natural increase....The author points to a very heterogenous national composition of the population in border areas of Serbia."
Correspondence: G. Penev, Institut Drustvenih Nauka, Centar za Demografska Istrazivanja, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30112 Radovanovic, Svetlana; Stankovic, Vladimir. Depopulation in Serbia by type of settlement in the period 1981-1991. [Depopulaciona kretanja na prostorima Srbije prema tipu naselja u periodu 1981-1991.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 32, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1994. 103-20 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
"Population in the Republic of Serbia has for quite some time been recording significant differences in its development patterns: demographic explosion in Kosovo and Metohia and demographic implosion in Central Serbia and in Vojvodina. The consequences of such developments are reflected in a very dynamic downward tendency of a positive natural growth in Central Serbia and Vojvodina, as well as in an intensified depopulation in Kosovo and Metohia conglomerations inhabited by the Serbs."
Correspondence: S. Radovanovic, Institut Drustvenih Nauka, Centar za Demografska Istrazivanja, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:30113 Vojkovic, Gordana; Devedzic, Mirjana. Population development in the Republic of South Africa from 1950 to 1990. [Razvoj stanovnistva Juznoafricke Republike u periodu 1950-1990.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 32, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1994. 139-52 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
"The specific character of demographic development in South Africa reflects all the controversies of the country's historical, social and economic development....All of the South African population groups are in different demographic transition phases....[The] population is characterized by a progressive age structure with a marked predominance of young. The resulting increase of fertile and working-age population points to future demographic problems and the need to contain the population growth. If the current upward trend continues, the size of the South African population will double by 2025."
Correspondence: G. Vojkovic, Srpske Akademije Nauka i Umetnosti, Geografski Institut Jovan Cvijic, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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