K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations

K.1. Economic Development and Population

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

61:20639 Prskawetz, Alexia; Feichtinger, Gustav. Endogenous population growth may imply chaos. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 8, No. 1, 1995. 59-80 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the influence of endogenous population growth on economic variables, e.g. the per capita capital stock, using a standard neoclassical growth model...in discrete-time." The authors use "the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems [to] obtain numerical results on the qualitative behaviour of time paths for changing parameter values. Besides stable and periodic solutions, erratic time paths may result. In particular, myopic and far-sighted economies--assumed to be characterised by low and high savings rate respectively--are characterised by stable per capita capital stocks, while solutions with chaotic windows exist between these two extremes."
Correspondence: A. Prskawetz, Institute for Demography, Hintere Zollamtsstrasse 2B, 1033 Vienna, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20640 Wallimann, Isidor. Can modernity be sustained? Prevention of mass death and genocide. Population Review, Vol. 38, No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1994. 36-45 pp. La Jolla, California. In Eng.
The author discusses "the view that the social systems that have brought us modernity have not only left fundamental problems unresolved, they also lack adequate problem solving mechanisms to ensure maximum preservation of life in all its forms....In addition to recognizing the perverse effects of modern social organization and process, I would...like to maintain that modernization itself and its associated social systems and techniques--such as the universal market system or centralized planning bureaucracies--cannot be sustained except for some and at the cost of increased mass death which may include the practice of genocide."
Correspondence: I. Wallimann, School of Social Work, 4053 Basel, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20641 Zhang, Wei-Bin. Capital, population and urban patterns. Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 24, No. 2, Apr 1994. 273-86 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In this study a dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population and residential structure is developed. The model is constructed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and two-sector neoclassical growth model. It describes the interdependence between residential structure (the distribution of households and land rent), economic growth (changes in incomes and capital accumulation), population growth, and economic structure (wages, prices and the distribution of labor and capital among different economic sectors) over time and space. The model has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf bifurcation theorem, we also show that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations."
Correspondence: W.-B. Zhang, Institute for Futures Studies, Hagagatan 23B, 3tr, Box 6799, 113 85 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

K.1.2. Developing Countries

61:20642 Alba, Francisco; Cabrera, Gustavo. The population in the contemporary development of Mexico. [La poblacion en el desarrollo contemporaneo de Mexico.] ISBN 968-12-0585-5. 1994. 405 pp. El Colegio de Mexico, Centro de Estudios Demograficos y de Desarrollo Urbano: Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
This volume is the product of a seminar held on December 3-4, 1990, to commemorate the fiftieth anniversary of El Colegio de Mexico, and titled 50 Years: the Population and the Development of Mexico. Among the changes noted in Mexico from 1940 to 1990 are the growth of the population, the movement from a primarily rural society to an urban one, and the growth in economic activity concentrated in the service and industrial sectors. Social and political changes are also discussed. Nineteen papers by various authors are included.
Correspondence: El Colegio de Mexico, Centro de Estudios Demograficos y de Desarrollo Urbano, Camino al Ajusco 20, Pedregal de Santa Teresa, 10740 Mexico, DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20643 Cassen, R. H. Economic implications of demographic change. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 87, Suppl. 1, Apr 1993. 13-8 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper considers the principal economic arguments surrounding the fact of rapid population growth in developing societies. It suggests that the extent of controversy which has attended this topic in the past can be greatly reduced by identifying precisely the indicators in respect of which the economic effects of population growth are judged....The paper also examines some of the principal national and global issues affected by population growth, and suggests that it is not population alone, but the relations between population and income growth and technological and policy choices, which have to be understood if the 'population problem' is to be seen in true perspective."
Correspondence: R. H. Cassen, University of Oxford, International Development Centre, Queen Elizabeth House, 21 St. Giles's Street, Oxford OX1 3LA, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20644 Jha, Satish C.; Deolalikar, Anil B.; Pernia, Ernesto M. Population growth and economic development revisited with reference to Asia. Asian Development Review, Vol. 11, No. 2, 1993. 1-46 pp. Manila, Philippines. In Eng.
"This article takes another look at the old issue of population growth and economic development in the context of recent developments and with the benefit of the increasing stock of knowledge on the subject. It first presents a demographic perspective; then it analyzes the implications of population growth with respect to such integral aspects of economic development as human capital accumulation, income distribution and poverty, the environment, and sustainable economic growth. The approach in each case is to review the theoretical considerations, survey the empirical evidence, and then draw policy implications. An overall conclusion with implications for policy caps the paper." The geographical focus is on Asia.
Correspondence: S. C. Jha, Asian Development Bank, 2330 Roxas Boulevard, Manila 2800, Philippines. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

61:20645 Qu, Xihua. The relationship between supporting economic development and enhancing population quality in China's poverty-stricken areas. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1994. 355-66 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"In order to qualitatively portray the combined quality level of community population and societal development [in China], this author has developed a model for evaluating the quality of population and development in poor communities (or regions) and comparing cross-region developmental differences on the basis of an in-depth field study conducted in some poor counties and communities."
Correspondence: X. Qu, Sichuan University, College of Vocational Education, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20646 United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA] (New York, New York). Population and development strategies. UNFPA Technical Report, No. 19, ISBN 0-89714-230-6. 1994. [vi], 168 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
This report includes selected papers presented at the Round Table on Population and Development held in Bangkok, Thailand, November 17-19, 1993. "The aim of the Round Table, and of this publication, is to explore new approaches to integrating population concerns into development planning, taking stock of the changing socio-economic circumstances that developing countries find themselves confronting and the new development paradigms that have recently found wide acceptance." Particular attention is given to the implications for population policy.
Correspondence: United Nations Population Fund, 220 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20647 Zhang, Zhiliang; Zhu, Li. Trends and corresponding policies related to population, resources, environment and economic development in northwest China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 6, No. 2, 1994. 155-66 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The authors discuss the interrelations among population, economic development, and the environment in northwestern China, with a focus on the need for policies to regulate these trends. "On the basis of economic growth and population control, the five provinces and autonomous regions in the northwest will definitely be able to coordinate the development of their population, resources, environment and economy as long as they follow scientific rules and the law of nature in exploiting their resources, improve ecological environment, increase investment on agriculture, and fortify the productivity of land."
Correspondence: Z. Zhang, Lanzhou University, Northwest Research Institute, 78 Tianshui Road, 730000 Lanzhou, Gansu Province, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20648 Zhu, Baoshu. A study on regional match model between population and the economy-resource bearing capacity. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 6, No. 2, 1994. 167-76 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The author of this article proposes that when studying the relationship between population and population bearing capacity in different regions [of China], economy bearing capacity and resource bearing capacity should be analyzed together as well as separately and detailed observations should be conducted on the inter-relationship among population, economy and resource bearing capacity. The [author's] analysis would reveal that, in theory as well as in practice, the match between population and economy-resource bearing capacity...in different regions varies in both form and content."
Correspondence: B. Zhu, East China Normal University, Institute of Population Research, Shanghai 220062, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.3. Developed Countries

61:20649 Klose, Hans-Ulrich. Aging has a future: population trends and a dynamic economy. [Altern hat Zukunft: Bevolkerungsentwicklung und dynamische Wirtschaft.] ISBN 3-531-12542-7. 1993. 310 pp. Westdeutscher Verlag: Opladen, Germany. In Ger.
This collection of 15 papers by various authors deals with the long-term economic and social effects of an aging population in Germany and with innovative options for meeting the resulting challenges. Topics examined include population trends and consequences, demographic effects of policy measures, the labor market, technological change and the need for education, immigration, female employment, the social security system, and productivity of the elderly.
Correspondence: Westdeutscher Verlag, Postfach 5829, 65048 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20650 Matkovic, Gordana. Population and labor force in the Golija region. [Stanovnistvo i radna snaga na podrucju Golije.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 31-32, 1993-1994. 123-33 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
"Demographic analyses of the Golija region [of Serbia represent] a part of the broader study conducted for the purpose of creating a socio-economic development program for this under-developed area. The research is carried out at the settlement level. Differences in population composition by nationality, size of the settlements and their location generated settlement polarization by natural increase, age structure, size of the average household and also by economic activity rates. On the other hand, similarities may be found in the depopulation tendencies as caused by the excessive migration flow, in the low educational level of the population, and in the high share of the agricultural population and agricultural labour force."
Correspondence: G. Matkovic, Ekonomski Institut, Srpskih Vladara 16, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20651 Penev, Slavica. Demographic investments in Serbia. [Demografske investicije u Srbiji.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 31-32, 1993-1994. 109-21 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
"The analysis of demographic investments...enables us to...observe the impact of investment efficiency and demographic developments on economic performance....The empirical analysis of demographic investments across three regions of Serbia (Kosovo and Metohia, Central Serbia and Vojvodina) is quite representative from the point of view of determining the interdependence of the rates of growth in demographic investment and the level of development of the respective regions. During the 1966-80 period of a dynamic economic growth, the differences in demographic investments rates registered across Serbia were very pronounced....In the period from 1981 to 1990, when...Serbia was under a severe economic strain and the efficiency of investment declined drastically, the differences in demographic investments between the three unequally developed regions were no longer discernable."
Correspondence: S. Penev, Institut za Ekonomiku Investiranja, Beogradska Banka, Pariske Komune 22, New Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

61:20652 Burns, Thomas J.; Kick, Edward L.; Murray, David A.; Murray, Dixie A. Demography, development and deforestation in a world-system perspective. International Journal of Comparative Sociology, Vol. 35, No. 3-4, Sep-Dec 1994. 221-39 pp. Leiden, Netherlands. In Eng.
The authors develop a model to examine worldwide deforestation from a demographic, cultural, and economic perspective. "Results indicate that factors leading to deforestation vary across world-system positions. Deforestation has been most severe in the semiperiphery during the past several decades, and the effects of rural encroachment on deforestation have been greatest there as well. Growth in secondary education is associated with less deforestation in the semiperiphery, both directly and indirectly through its tendency to counteract rural encroachment. Population growth has a direct effect on deforestation only in the core, but leads to rural encroachment in all sectors. Growth in service and manufacturing, especially in the periphery, has a countervailing effect on deforestation. Deforestation in turn is associated with economic decline, especially in the periphery."
Correspondence: T. J. Burns, University of Utah, Department of Sociology, Salt Lake City, UT 84112. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

61:20653 Cai, Zongxia; Sigwalt, Pierre. The Chinese demographic challenge. [Le defi demographique chinois.] Bulletin de l'Association de Geographes Francais, Vol. 70, No. 2, Mar 1993. 150-65 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
Recent official vital statistics data from China are used to emphasize the seriousness of the demographic situation in China, and to highlight the continued pressure on limited resources exerted by a growing population that is struggling to achieve socioeconomic development. The authors conclude that "the pessimistic scenarios of evolution of Chinese vital factors justify the pursuit, or even the intensification, of the birth control programme. New educational programmes should focus on the necessity to develop new solidarities, to achieve a [reasonable] vital growth at least during the next five decades, which could lead to a better balanced...development of the economy."
Correspondence: Z. Cai, Academie des Sciences de Chine, Institut de Geographie, Paris, France. Location: Dartmouth College Library, Hanover, NH.

61:20654 Clarke, John I.; Rhind, David W.; Becket, Clare; Wilkes, Ann; Sadler, Graham; Short, Joanna. Population data and global environmental change. HDP Report, No. 3, ISBN 92-9107-001-9. 1992. 147 pp. International Social Science Council, Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme: Barcelona, Spain. In Eng.
This report attempts to review the availability of the demographic data relevant to the study of global environmental change. It therefore attempts to "inventory the demographic data currently available; evaluate the adequacy of these data for Global Environmental Change (GEC) studies; recommend how currently available data could be made more useful for the study of GEC; [and] consider what types of additional demographic data may be required." The report also introduces both the theory and practice of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and discusses its application to the monitoring of environmental change. Specific attention is given to the U.S. Bureau of the Census Center for International Research's global population database.
Correspondence: International Social Science Council, Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme, Pomaret 21, 08017 Barcelona, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20655 Collomb, Philippe; Levy, Michel L.; Belle, Paul. Mankind and water. [L'homme et l'eau.] Population et Societes, No. 298, Feb 1995. 4 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This report examines the adequacy of available supplies of fresh water in the light of current projections of world population. The authors conclude that the demand for water can probably be met through international cooperation and the transfer of technical and financial resources from the developed to the developing world.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20656 Ebanks, G. Edward. Urbanization and the environment in the Greater Antilles (Cuba, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic). Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 94-7, ISBN 0-7714-1689-X. Jul 1994. 24 pp. University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
"This paper focuses on urbanization and its consequences for the environment within the context of the Greater Antilles, viz Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Puerto Rico."
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario, Department of Sociology, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20657 Heilig, Gerhard K. How many people can be fed on earth? In: The future population of the world. What can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1994. 207-61 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
The author discusses the wide range of estimates that have been made concerning the size of the global population that the world could support. Four reasons for these differences are identified: "dissent about the reference area, disagreement about the means of sustenance, controversy on the mode of reaction to limitations, and confusion about the time frame." The author concludes that, with fundamental political, social, and economic changes, the planet could provide enough food for the estimated global population of the twenty-first century.
Correspondence: G. K. Heilig, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20658 Heilig, Gerhard K. Neglected dimensions of global land-use change: reflections and data. Population and Development Review, Vol. 20, No. 4, Dec 1994. 831-59, 922, 924 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"The author questions the conventional approach to studying global land-use changes, which is focused on agriculture-related alterations driven by population growth. He argues the need to abandon the oversimplified model of a linear relationship between population growth, increase in food demand, and agricultural expansion and intensification, leading to deforestation and land-cover modification....The author presents FAO data which indicate that a significant proportion of arable land worldwide is cultivated for lifestyle-related products, such as stimulants, sugar, and tobacco. A review of historical trends also shows that changes in land-use patterns were frequently linked to changes in lifestyles."
Correspondence: G. K. Heilig, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20659 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). Feasibility study on the impact of population growth in developing countries on global environment. Institute of Population Problems Research Series, No. 281, Aug 30, 1994. 149 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
This study examines the impact of population growth on the environment in developing countries.
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20660 Kalipeni, Ezekiel. Population growth and environmental degradation in southern Africa. ISBN 1-55587-512-2. LC 94-2569. 1994. xii, 236 pp. Lynne Rienner: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
This is a collection of studies by authors from various disciplines on aspects of population and the environment in the countries of eastern and southern Africa. "In chapters that are clearly written and free of technical jargon, the book provides an understanding of the dynamics of population growth, the environment, and access to resources. The contributors examine the following specific subjects: policy implications of rapid population growth, the impact of population growth on the environment and economic sectors, rapid population growth and rural-urban migration, the environmental legacy of apartheid, the environmental issue as a critical factor in the stability of southern Africa, and access to resources, especially for traditionally marginalized groups such as women in both rural and urban areas."
Correspondence: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1800 30th Street, Boulder, CO 80301. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20661 King, Maurice. Demographic entrapment. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 87, Suppl. 1, Apr 1993. 23-8 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Demographic entrapment is a situation in which a population exceeds the carrying capacity of its own ecosystem and its 'connectedness' to other ecosystems. It can be looked upon as a disorder of the demographic transition which presents serious ethical problems in that there are occasions on which there is a conflict between the interests of the child and the community. Reasons are given for the aid agencies' recognizing the existence of entrapment, which presently they do not."
Correspondence: M. King, University of Leeds, Academic Unit of Public Health Medicine, 20 Hyde Terrace, Leeds LS2 9LN, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20662 Loening, Ulrich E. The ecological challenges to population growth. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 87, Suppl. 1, Apr 1993. 9-12 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Human societies have developed by overcoming the constraints of nature. The result is population growth that will exceed, and probably has already exceeded, the carrying capacity....There can be no simple technical answer; solutions must come from the co-ordinated attention to environment, population, poverty, and equity....Two approaches are outlined: a tool for thought for communities to determine their aims in terms of fundamental human needs, and a resource modelling system to assess whether such aims are physically possible."
Correspondence: U. E. Loening, University of Edinburgh, Centre for Human Ecology, 16 Buccleuch Place, Edinburgh EH8 9LN, Scotland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20663 Lutz, Wolfgang. Population and environment. [Bevolkerung und Umwelt.] In: Spannungsfeld Umwelt und Entwicklung, edited by Arnulf Grubler, Otmar Hall, Walther Lichem, and Christian Rakos. ISBN 3-85191-020-6. 1994. 67-77 pp. Dachs-Verlag: Vienna, Austria. In Ger.
The relative impact of population growth, standard of living, and technological efficiency on the global environment is discussed. The importance of women's status as a factor affecting population growth is noted. Consideration is also given to the effects of the environment on demographic factors such as mortality, life expectancy, and migration.
Correspondence: Dachs-Verlag, Rainergasse 38, 1050 Vienna, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20664 May, John F. Policies on population, land use, and environment in Rwanda. Population and Environment, Vol. 16, No. 4, Mar 1995. 321-34 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The paper first describes the interactions, between population growth, land use, and environment in Rwanda....These interactions are modelled using a conceptual framework applied to the neighboring Kivu region in Zaire, but adapted to the Rwandan case study. Second, the paper contends that the emphasis put on increasing agricultural production, mostly through the use of marginal land, as well as the lack of timely implementation of a family planning program and a national population policy, have led to a worsening of the interactions between population growth, land use, and environment. In an attempt to demonstrate this hypothesis, demography-driven projection scenarios are applied to the agricultural colonization and intensification processes."
This paper was originally presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: J. F. May, Futures Group International, 1050 17th Street NW, Suite 1000, Washington, D.C. 20036. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20665 McConnell, Robert L. The human population carrying capacity of the Chesapeake Bay watershed: a preliminary analysis. Population and Environment, Vol. 16, No. 4, Mar 1995. 335-51 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author investigates the human population carrying capacity of the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the United States. "New sediment data allow precise determination of time of onset of [degradation] by recognizing changes in ratio of benthic to planktonic diatoms. These data, coupled with analyses of living resource populations, indicate that the most significant episode of Bay degradation commenced in the 1950s, and suggest that the human population carrying capacity for the watershed does not exceed 8 million without substantial changes in energy consumption and lifestyle."
Correspondence: R. L. McConnell, Mary Washington College, Department of Environmental Science and Geology, Fredericksburg, VA 22401-5358. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20666 Price, David. Energy and human evolution. Population and Environment, Vol. 16, No. 4, Mar 1995. 301-19 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"By using extrasomatic energy to modify more and more of its environment to suit human needs, the human population effectively expanded its resource base so that for long periods it has exceeded contemporary requirements....But the exhaustion of fossil fuels, which supply three quarters of this energy, is not far off, and no other energy source is abundant and cheap enough to take their place. A collapse of the earth's human population cannot be more than a few years away....The human species may be seen as having evolved in the service of entropy, and it cannot be expected to outlast the dense accumulations of energy that have helped define its niche."
Correspondence: D. Price, Cornell University, 254 Carpenter Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20667 Rogers, Peter. Population and environmental deterioration: a 20-year retrospective. CEPS Discussion Paper Series, No. 15, 1993. 32 pp. Winrock International, Center for Economic Policy Studies [CEPS]: Arlington, Virginia. In Eng.
"This paper deals with the relationship between population and environmental deterioration." Both the direct and indirect impacts of human population growth and size upon the environment are considered. The author notes that "recent thinking about the population-environment nexus suggests that there is an inverse U-shaped relationship between per capita income and environmental insult." The implications of this new paradigm for future global environmental trends are discussed.
Correspondence: Winrock International, Center for Economic Policy Studies, 1611 North Kent Street, Arlington, VA 22209. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20668 Shapiro, David. Population growth, changing agricultural practices, and environmental degradation in Zaire. Population and Environment, Vol. 16, No. 3, Jan 1995. 221-36 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper examines linkages between the demographic changes taking place in Zaire, particularly overall population growth and rapid urbanization, changes in agricultural practices, and related environmental degradation. Pressures to feed Zaire's rapidly increasing urban population, which fall on a rural population that has been growing relatively slowly in recent years, as well as population growth and increased population density in certain areas of the country, have resulted in changes in agricultural practices that are described in the paper. These changes in turn are leading to declining soil fertility, deforestation, and degradation of the natural resource base. Given present technology and the state of Zaire's economy, the changes in agricultural practices that have emerged in response to population growth, increased population density, and growth in demand for food production do not appear to be sustainable in the long run."
Correspondence: D. Shapiro, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Economics, 416 Kern Graduate Building, University Park, PA 16802-3306. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20669 Stycos, J. Mayone. Population and the environment: polls, policies, and public opinion. Population and Development Program Working Paper Series, No. 94.13, 1994. 21 pp. Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program: Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
"In this paper I will deal with several questions...1. Has the demand for better policies on population and the environment produced an increase in the social science knowledge base on these subjects? 2. What data are available and what data are needed to assess the attitudes of governments toward population and environmental problems? 3. What data are available and needed to assess public attitudes on population and environmental problems?"
Correspondence: Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program, 134 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20670 Verliat, Serge. The impact of population growth on Tamba Kosi, a Himalayan valley in Nepal. [Consequences de la croissance demographique dans la Tamba Kosi, vallee himalayenne du Nepal.] Cahiers d'Outre-Mer, Vol. 47, No. 186, Apr-Jun 1994. 225-44 pp. Talence, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The impact of rapid population growth on the Tamba Kosi valley in Nepal is analyzed. Despite attempts to intensify the agro-pastoral system, out-migration has become the only way to cope with the growing population. Population growth has lead to changes in techniques of house construction due to shortages in materials and to degradation of the environment, including soil erosion.
Correspondence: S. Verliat, College Paul Badu du Tampon, Reunion. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

61:20671 World Resources Institute (Washington, D.C.); United Nations Environment Programme (New York, New York); United Nations Development Programme [UNDP] (New York, New York). World resources, 1994-95. ISBN 0-19-521044-1. LC 86-659504. 1994. xii, 400 pp. Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
This is an annual publication presenting data on the global environment and development issues, and is the sixth in the series. "This volume has a special focus on people and the environment, in support of the 1994 United Nations International Conference on Population and Development. Part I consists of three special chapters that highlight different aspects of people and the environment: natural resource consumption trends and their environmental consequences; the complex interactions among population growth, environmental degradation, and other factors; and the special and indeed essential role of women in sustainable development."
Correspondence: Oxford University Press, 200 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016. Location: Princeton University Library (SSRC).

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

61:20672 Blank, Rebecca M. Changes in inequality and unemployment over the 1980s: comparative cross-national responses. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 8, No. 1, 1995. 1-21 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"This paper reviews the research evidence regarding high and persistent unemployment in the western European nations and widening inequality in the United States and selected European countries. It has been suggested that both of these problems are due to fundamental economic shifts in labor demand within the more industrialized world that have led to declines in the demand for less skilled workers: the effect on countries with more regulated labor markets was rising unemployment, while in less regulated labor markets it was rising wage inequality. The paper considers the evidence for this hypothesis, as well as the research questions and policy issues that it raises."
Correspondence: R. M. Blank, Northwestern University, Department of Economics, 2003 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20673 Calhoun, Charles A. The impact of children on the labour supply of married women: comparative estimates from European and U.S. data. European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1994. 293-318 pp. Hingham, Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper presents estimates of the impact of the age pattern and level of fertility on the probability of labour force participation by married and cohabiting women in twelve Eastern and Western European countries and the United States. Logit models for labour force participation probabilities are estimated conditional on age, age at marriage or union, educational attainment, current parity, and number of years in parity, using data on married and cohabiting women from the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Comparative Study of World Fertility Surveys....Four distinct patterns are identified that depend on the empirical significance of distinct number-of-children and age-of-youngest-child effects. The role of family policies and the extent to which the labour supply reductions associated with childbearing can be interpreted as opportunity costs are considered."
Correspondence: C. A. Calhoun, Urban Institute, 2100 M Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20674 de Jong, A. H. Developments in the labor force participation rate of mothers. [Ontwikkelingen in de arbeidsparticipatie van moeders.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 42, No. 11, Nov 1994. 6-18 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"This article deals with the analysis of recent developments in labour participation by mothers [in the Netherlands]....The results of the analysis show a strong period effect, although the rate of change is declining. Further, young women who have their first child at the ages 20-24 have a significantly lower labour participation rate compared with older women. The educational level has a strong influence on the labour participation rate...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20675 De Jong, Gordon F.; Blair, Marilou C. L. Occupational status of rural outmigrants and return migrants. Rural Sociology, Vol. 59, No. 4, Winter 1994. 693-707 pp. Bozeman, Montana. In Eng.
"This research analyzes the occupational status payoffs to short-term outmigration and return migration for male workers in a developing country. Using an occupational status model that integrates explanations from the status attainment and migration literatures and longitudinal data from the Philippine Migration Survey, the results show that both outmigrants and return migrants have lower occupational prestige scores than nonmigrants. Regression standardization and decomposition analyses reveal that while rural outmigrants are positively selected on socioeconomic characteristics compared with nonmigrants, their lower occupational prestige scores are largely because their prior farming and fishing occupational experience does not properly prepare them for the urban labor market. Return migrants' lower occupational status scores are due to negative selection on socioeconomic characteristics."
Correspondence: G. F. De Jong, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Sociology, 211 Oswald Tower, University Park, PA 16802-6411. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20676 Deseran, Forrest A.; Keithly, Diane. Teenagers in the U.S. labor force: local labor markets, race, and family. Rural Sociology, Vol. 59, No. 4, Winter 1994. 668-92 pp. Bozeman, Montana. In Eng.
"Drawing on theories of family organization and labor-market structures, it is argued that teenagers represent a useful target population for research on the effects of race, household characteristics, and local labor markets on labor-force participation. Toward this end, predictive models of labor-force participation are applied to a sample of all white and black 16- to 18-year-olds living at home in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan labor-market areas in the United States. Beyond the higher labor-force participation of white youths, both local labor-market characteristics and family resources affect teenage labor-force participation. Participation of white youths was more closely linked to family resources and local economic conditions than that of black youths. Queuing theories of labor-force participation are used to interpret these findings."
Correspondence: F. A. Deseran, Louisiana State University, Department of Sociology, 126 Stubbs Hall, Baton Rouge, LA 70803-5411. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20677 Dustmann, Christian. Differences in the labour market behaviour between temporary and permanent migrant women. CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 947, May 1994. [iii], 25 pp. Centre for Economic Policy Research [CEPR]: London, England. In Eng.
"This paper analyses labour market behaviour of married migrant women. The theoretical analysis shows that migrants who intend to remain only temporarily in the host country are likely to exhibit a different labour market behaviour than migrants who wish to stay permanently." The author develops a two-period model which illustrates how a return to the country of origin may influence labor market behavior and applies it to data from the first wave of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
Correspondence: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 25-28 Old Burlington Street, London W1X 1LB, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20678 Ettner, Susan L. The impact of "parent care" on female labor supply decisions. Demography, Vol. 32, No. 1, Feb 1995. 63-80 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Data from the 1986-1988 Survey of Income and Program Participation panels were used to analyze how informal caregiving of disabled elderly parents affected female labor supply. Instrumental variables analyses suggested that coresidence with a disabled parent leads to a large, significant reduction in work hours, due primarily to withdrawal from the labor force. Although the impact of nonhousehold member caregiving was insignificant, evidence of an effect was stronger when commitment of caregiving time was greater. Projections of female labor force participation rates should account for potential increases in caregiving demand due to the aging of the U.S. population."
Correspondence: S. L. Ettner, Harvard University, Harvard Medical School, Department of Health Care Policy, 25 Shattuck Street, Boston, MA 02115. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20679 Green, A. E. A comparison of alternative measures of unemployment. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 27, No. 4, Apr 1995. 535-56 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper is concerned with comparing and contrasting information available on unemployment [in the United Kingdom] from three main data sources--the Employment Department claimant count, the Census of Population, and the Labour Force Survey. The main substantive focus is on a comparison of the census and claimant-based counts for different subgroups of the population (disaggregated by age and gender) at a range of spatial scales....It is concluded that the most appropriate way forward would appear to involve the use of alternative parallel measures of unemployment, specifically tailored to the purpose in hand. This necessitates a greater understanding on the part of users of the strengths and weaknesses of alternative sources, in order that the most appropriate measure is selected."
Correspondence: A. E. Green, University of Warwick, Institute for Employment Research, Coventry CV4 7AL, England. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

61:20680 Greenwood, Michael J.; Hunt, Gary L. Economic effects of immigrants on native and foreign-born workers: complementarity, substitutability, and other channels of influence. Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 61, No. 4, Apr 1995. 1,076-97 pp. Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
The extent to which immigrant workers cause a reduction of domestic wage rates and displace domestic workers from jobs in the United States is explored. The focus is on the several ways immigrants can effect native workers apart from the production structure channel. The authors "develop a structural model of immigrant/native labor demand and labor supply that allows us to distinguish the effects of immigrants in such a way as to identify the channels through which wages and employment are influenced. We show that although immigrants and natives are substitutes in production, when other channels of influence are taken into account, immigrants can positively affect the employment and wages of native workers. However, they cause somewhat lower wages among other immigrants."
Correspondence: M. J. Greenwood, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0484. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

61:20681 Ishikawa, Akira. Abridged working life tables for Japanese men and women: 1990. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 49, No. 4, Jan 1994. 57-70 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Abridged working life tables are presented for Japan for the period from 1950 to 1990 by sex.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20682 Krishnamurty, J. Implications of technological transformation for human resource planning in low fertility countries. In: Low fertility in East and Southeast Asia: issues and policies. Aug 1994. 201-13 pp. Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs [KIHASA]: Seoul, Korea, Republic of. In Eng.
"This chapter examines the effects of low fertility on the quantity and quality of the labour force; gives a broad overview of the main trends in technological development, and assesses the likely human resource implications. It attempts to link low fertility, which is primarily a demographic phenomenon, with technological change and human resource planning, both of which relate to the implications of the growth and utilisation of the stock of scientific knowledge." The geographic focus is on East and Southeast Asia.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20683 Lemelin, Andre; Polese, Mario. The location of employment in developing countries. Models of urbanization and comparative analyses of the Canadian and Mexican urban systems. [La localizacion del empleo en los paises en desarrollo. Modelos de urbanizacion y analisis comparativos de los sistemas urbanos canadiense y mexicano.] Estudios Demograficos y Urbanos, Vol. 8, No. 2, May-Aug 1993. 331-60, 484-5 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
The authors attempt to determine if "economic activity now [locates] according to different rules in developing nations....[They] first undertake an econometric analysis of the relationship between urbanization, urban size and development for 96 nations, followed by a comparative analysis of the location of employment, by economic sector, for Mexico and Canada."
Correspondence: A. Lemelin, Universite du Quebec, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique-Urbanisation, 3465 rue Durocher, Montreal, Quebec H2X 2C6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20684 Li, Shuzhuo; Zhu, Chuzhu. Women's participation and a new mechanism of population control in the current transformation process in rural China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 6, No. 3, 1994. 243-9 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"One important component in the new rural population control mechanism [in China] is to shape up a community environment that is conducive to the promotion of women's employment and the increase of their family and social status, and to encourage women's general participation in the whole process of social development so as to change women's perception on reproduction and their reproductive behavior. However, under the market economic system...rural women have already partially lost policy protection previously guaranteed them in the planned economic system. Women's participation at the present stage depends mainly on women's own intentions and overall competitive prowess on the market."
Correspondence: S. Li, Xi'an Transportation University, Population Research Institute, 26 Xianning Road, Xian, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20685 Morelos, Jose B. The internal consistency of corrected labor force data in the census (1960-1980) and the estimation of labor force participation rates by age and sex for 1980. [La consistencia interna de los datos corregidos de la poblacion activa censal (1960-1980) y la estimacion de las tasas de participacion por edad y sexo para 1980.] Estudios Demograficos y Urbanos, Vol. 8, No. 2, May-Aug 1993. 307-29, 484 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"Results from a number of studies suggest that, beginning in 1960, the quality of [Mexican] census information on the condition of activity alternates between overestimation and underestimation. The labour force was significantly overestimated in the census of 1960 and 1980. These facts are used to estimate the direction and level of the tendency in labour force participation rates by age and sex for 1980. The document concludes by discussing the results and providing examples to illustrate the significance of overestimation and underestimation of the labour force."
Correspondence: J. B. Morelos, El Colegio de Mexico, Centro de Estudios Demograficos y de Desarrollo Urbano, Camino al Ajusco 20, 10740 Mexico City, DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20686 Ngo, Hang-yue. The economic role of immigrant wives in Hong Kong. International Migration, Vol. 32, No. 3, 1994. 403-23 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Recent census data on Hong Kong are analysed to achieve 3 objectives: 1. compare the employment pattern of immigrant wives with native-born wives in Hong Kong; 2. examine the independent influences of socio-demographic characteristics and assimilation experience on employment behaviour of immigrant wives; and 3. establish the extent to which immigrant wives' employment is affected by social and demographic factors and conditioned on the assimilation strategy adopted by their families."
Correspondence: H.-y. Ngo, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Management, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20687 Parish, William L.; Zhe, Xiaoye; Li, Fang. Nonfarm work and marketization of the Chinese countryside. Population Research Center Discussion Paper Series, No. 95-6, 1995. 24, [12] pp. University of Chicago, National Opinion Research Center [NORC], Population Research Center: Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
"Focusing on nonfarm work, this paper examines the extent to which labour markets are emerging in the Chinese countryside and whether women participate in those new markets. This examination is based on a 1993 survey that provides new detail on types of work, employment channels, migration, and income."
Correspondence: University of Chicago, National Opinion Research Center, Population Research Center, 1155 East 60th Street, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20688 Rubin-Kurtzman, Jane R. Determinants of female labor supply in Mexico City, 1970. [Los determinantes de la oferta de trabajo femenino en la ciudad de Mexico, 1970.] Estudios Demograficos y Urbanos, Vol. 6, No. 3, Sep-Dec 1991. 545-82, 780 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"The present analysis of 1970, a year of relative economic prosperity in Mexico, is part of a study which examines why and how the female labor force in Mexico City continued to expand despite deteriorating economic conditions in the 1970s and 1980s. The principal determinants of female employment in 1970 were marital status, gender of the household head and the number of additional non-workers in the household. The most disadvantaged women, namely formerly-married women with children, women living in female-headed households, and poor rural migrants, were most likely to work."
Correspondence: J. R. Rubin-Kurtzman, 228 Euclid Street, Santa Monica, CA 90402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20689 Sacks, Michael P. Ethnic and gender divisions in the work force of Russia. Post-Soviet Geography, Vol. 36, No. 1, Jan 1995. 1-12 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"This paper presents preliminary findings from a study of newly available occupational data from the 1989 census detailing ethnic and gender differences in Russia. Measurements are presented showing differences between the occupations of Russians and the next 11 largest ethnic groups, producing a clear hierarchy of groups. The extent of occupational gender differences within each ethnic group is measured and contrasted with the level of differences between ethnic groups. These data are important for showing potential sources of group conflict and for providing a baseline to measure changing forms of inequality that have been promoted by post-Soviet developments."
Correspondence: M. P. Sacks, Trinity College, Department of Sociology, Hartford, CT 06106. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

61:20690 Schwarz, Karl. The professional work of women over the life cycle, yesterday and today. [Frauenerwerbstatigkeit im Lebenslauf gestern und heute.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 19, No. 4, 1993-1994. 541-75 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The author examines the status and economic activity of women in Germany. Comparisons are made of male and female unemployment, age, number of children, part-time work, qualifications, educational status, and old-age pensions.
Correspondence: K. Schwarz, Klopstockstrasse 14, 65187 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20691 Tienda, Marta; Hsueh, Sheri. Gender, ethnicity and labor force instability. Population Research Center Discussion Paper Series, No. 94-12, Oct 1994. 30, [6] pp. University of Chicago, National Opinion Research Center [NORC], Population Research Center: Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
"We analyze the 1986 and 1987 Panels of the [U.S.] Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to examine the extent and magnitude of employment instability among black, Hispanic and white men and women to address two questions about the character and correlates of labor force instability. First, what is the frequency of employment transitions during an annual observation period, and how are transitions distributed among race, ethnic and gender groups? Second, what are the social and demographic correlates of labor force instability?...Consistent with several recent studies, our results show that labor force instability is more prevalent than previously believed, that it is higher among women than among men, and that it is higher among black and Hispanic workers than among nonHispanic whites."
This paper was originally presented at the 1994 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: University of Chicago, National Opinion Research Center, Population Research Center, 1155 East 60th Street, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20692 Young, Christabel. The future population and the future labour force. People and Place, Vol. 2, No. 4, 1994. 15-21 pp. Monash, Australia. In Eng.
"The combination of two recent publications by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides a useful insight into feasible future trends in the population, the labour force and dependency ratios. In addition, earlier ABS census data and its regular publications from the Labour Force Surveys clarify the historical trends in the relative number of dependants and nondependants. These various sources of data are brought together in this paper....Official population projections...highlight the fact that the combination of annual zero net migration and 10 per cent below replacement fertility would not produce an immediate decline in Australia's population....The conventional labour-force dependency ratio suggests that the dependency situation in Australia in 2041 will be no worse than it was in the early 1980s."
Correspondence: C. Young, Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Demography Program, G.P.O. Box 4, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).