Volume 61 - Number 2 - Summer 1995

E. Mortality

Studies that treat quantitative mortality data analytically. Methodological studies primarily concerned with mortality are cited in this division and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models , if necessary. The main references to crude data are in the vital statistics items in S. Official Statistical Publications .

E.1. General Mortality

Studies of overall mortality and comparisons of several types of mortality. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are classified under the major section covered, or, if this is not self-evident, included here under General Mortality.

61:20104 Bucht, Birgitta. Mortality trends in developing countries: a survey. In: The future population of the world. What can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1994. 147-65 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
"This chapter reviews past levels and trends of mortality in developing countries, makes assumptions about future trends made by the United Nations, compares past assumptions with actual performance, and concludes with a review of recent and possible future changes in the pace of mortality decline. Mortality assumptions made more recently by the World Bank are also reviewed." The time focus is from 1950 to 2025.
Correspondence: B. Bucht, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20105 Caselli, Graziella; Mesle, France; Vallin, Jacques. The triumph of modern medicine. Mortality trends in Europe from the beginning of the century. [La triomphe de la medecine. Evolution de la mortalite en Europe depuis le debut du siecle.] INED Dossiers et Recherches, No. 45, Feb 1995. 60 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is an analysis of the decline in mortality that has occurred in Europe over the course of the twentieth century. In the first part, the authors analyze the differences in the timing of this trend in the various countries of Europe, and differences in age-specific mortality. In the second part, the role of modern medicine in bringing about this decline is examined by means of an analysis of changes in causes of death over time. In the third and final part, the authors consider whether inequalities in mortality have increased or decreased over time.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20106 Everson, P. M.; Stevenson, J. C.; Rogers, L. Mortality in a migrating Mennonite church congregation. Human Biology, Vol. 67, No. 1, Feb 1995. 69-86 pp. Detroit, Michigan. In Eng.
"Preston's two-census method of demographic estimation is applied to three pairs of reconstructed censuses from the records of a migrating Mennonite church congregation covering the period 1780-1890. The three pairs of censuses correspond to three periods (1780-1790, 1850-1860, and 1880-1890) and to stays in three settings (Prussia, Russia, and Kansas, respectively). The Mennonites' stay in Prussia was a period of hardship. In Russia they expanded their economic base and developed new farming methods, dramatically increasing their productivity. The Mennonites took these skills to Kansas, where they continued to be successful. The increase in life expectancy at age 5 corroborates this picture. The Prussian period exhibits the shortest life expectancy for both sexes. After the move to Russia, life expectancy increased for both sexes and continued to increase with the move to Kansas. The model also provides limited evidence for fertility depression following the move to Kansas."
Correspondence: P. M. Everson, Western Washington University, Department of Anthropology, MS 9083, Bellingham, WA 98225. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20107 Garenne, Michel. Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and prospects. In: The future population of the world. What can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1994. 167-86 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
"This chapter reviews the available evidence of mortality decline, before and after independence, and discusses the future of mortality. It focuses on the countries of continental sub-Saharan Africa...." The time period is from 1920 to 1990. "The recent history of sub-Saharan Africa indicates a major mortality decline, virtually universal, which began probably as early as 1920 in the most advanced countries. The decline was faster in certain countries than in others. A clear association exists between the pace of the mortality decline, the general level of socioeconomic development, and the intensity of public-health efforts."
Correspondence: M. Garenne, Harvard University, Center for Population and Development Studies, 9 Bow Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20108 Huang, Rongqing. A study of mortality in China in the 1980s. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1994. 387-401 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article offers a detailed discussion of Chinese mortality as confirmed by data from the 1982 and 1990 censuses. It points out that, in measuring the actual mortality in China in the 1980s, attention should be paid not only to infant mortality but also to failures in reporting deaths of old people. Based on age-differentiated population as reported by the two censuses, the author computes the population's average life span and re-evaluates the error in age-differentiated mortality as calculated by using mortality data from the censuses."
Correspondence: R. Huang, Beijing School of Economics, Population Research Institute, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20109 Kawachi, Ichiro; Levine, Sol; Miller, S. Micheal; Lasch, Kathryn; Amick, Benjamin. Income inequality and life expectancy: theory, research, and policy. Society and Health Working Paper Series, No. 94-2, May 1994. 51, [5] pp. Harvard University, School of Public Health, Joint Program in Society and Health: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
The purpose of this paper is to develop a general theory, based on a review of the current literature, concerning the relationship between income distribution and life expectancy around the world. It takes into account differences among countries as well as those within countries. The authors develop a theory "that accommodates both the absolute deprivation (poverty) and relative deprivation (inequality) perspectives." Policy implications are also discussed.
Correspondence: Harvard University, School of Public Health, Joint Program in Society and Health, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20110 Klein, Thomas. Social determinants of life expectancy. [Soziale Determinanten der Lebenserwartung.] Kolner Zeitschrift fur Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie, Vol. 45, No. 4, Dec 1993. 712-30, 828 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"Life expectancy and mortality increasingly are analyzed in the context of social factors. This study analyzes the impact of social position, marital status, and religious confession on cohort life expectancy. The analysis is based on [German data from the] Socio-Economic Panel Survey, wherein proxy-interviewee's parents have been used to estimate cohort mortality. Results confirm a lower mortality risk of the upper classes and of married persons. However, as opposed to other studies, Catholics do not have a lower, but even a higher mortality risk."
Correspondence: T. Klein, Universitat Konstanz, Fakultat Verwaltungswissenschaft, Universitatsstrasse 10, 78434 Constance, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

61:20111 Krishnamoorthy, S.; Kulkarni, P. M. Additions to Pollard's "fun with Gompertz" Genus, Vol. 49, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1993. 205-8 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng.
"In a recent paper, Pollard (1991) has demonstrated that under the Gompertz law of mortality quick accurate or approximate answers can be obtained to many queries on survival. Some of Pollard's formulae can also be developed in the context of multiple decrement life tables so as to arrive at simple solutions to problems on the probability of death due to a given cause and the effect of the elimination of a cause of death. It is realized that the cause-specific force of mortality may not obey the Gompertz law. Still, it may be possible to group the causes in such a way that for each group the Gompertz curve provides a good approximation."
For the article by John H. Pollard, see 58:10113.
Correspondence: S. Krishnamoorthy, Bharathiar University, Department of Population Studies, Coimbatore 641 046, Tamil Nadu, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20112 Krumins, Juris. Length of life--trends and problems of increase. [Iedzivotaju muza ilgums--tendences un palielinasanas problemas.] ISBN 9984-516-24-5. 1993. xxiv, 168 pp. Latvijas Universitate: Riga, Latvia. In Lav. with sum. in Eng.
This study concerns trends and differentials in life expectancy, and is based primarily on published and unpublished data from the Soviet period for Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and other republics of the former Soviet Union, with an emphasis on trends in Latvia. The author describes how life expectancy has changed over the course of the twentieth century, and the relationship between changes in causes of death and life expectancy. Differences in life expectancy by sex, residence characteristics, geographic areas, occupations, educational levels, marital status, and ethnic group are also analyzed. Prospects for further changes in life expectancy are examined.
Correspondence: Latvijas Universitate, Bulvar Raina 19, 1586 Riga, Latvia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20113 Lumey, L. H.; Van Poppel, F. W. A. The Dutch famine of 1944-45: mortality and morbidity in past and present generations. Social History of Medicine, Vol. 7, No. 2, Aug 1994. 229-46 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
Both short-term and long-term effects of the acute famine experienced in the western Netherlands during the last few months of World War II are examined. "The effect on mortality at all ages was very large and immediate. By making use of unpublished data from the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics, estimates [are] made of the changes in mortality by cause of death and age for both sexes. Mortality due to hunger was most common in the very young and the very old whereas the effects in males were more pronounced than in females. Hunger was a contributing factor to the increased mortality due to infectious diseases and diseases of the digestive system. In several follow-up studies on selected populations, long-term consequences of the famine could [also] be studied. They related to reproductive outcomes of women who gave birth during the Hunger Winter, to birth weight, malformations, and perinatal mortality of the newborn who were exposed to the famine during gestation, and to the long-term effects of the famine on the medical and psychological situation of infants born during the famine. Several studies on reproductive outcomes in the subsequent generation are also discussed."
Correspondence: L. H. Lumey, American Health Foundation, Division of Epidemiology, New York, NY 10017. Location: Rutgers University Library, New Brunswick, NJ.

61:20114 Mesle, France; Vallin, Jacques. Mortality around the world: trends and perspectives. [La mortalite dans le monde: tendances et perspectives.] Les Dossiers du CEPED, No. 30, ISBN 2-87762-071-9. Feb 1995. 25 pp. Centre Francais sur la Population et le Developpement [CEPED]: Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
This is a general review of recent mortality trends around the world. The authors note that the health improvements associated with the Industrial Revolution have now spread throughout the world, and that there has been, in consequence, a trend among most populations toward the highest levels of life expectancy. They also note that some African countries are still experiencing high levels of mortality, although many developing countries have higher levels of life expectancy than developed countries because they have so far avoided the diseases associated with industrialization. The likelihood that most countries will converge toward the life expectancy of 85 years projected by the United Nations is examined.
Correspondence: Centre Francais sur la Population et le Developpement, 15 rue de l'Ecole de Medecine, 75270 Paris Cedex 06, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20115 Navaneetham, K. Mortality decline in India: an analysis of regional and temporal variations. Demography India, Vol. 22, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1993. 53-63 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The present study deals with [mortality decline] in India and its regional and temporal variations observed during the period 1970-86. This has been accomplished by estimating both life expectancy at birth as well as...rate of mortality change by different age groups in India and its major states....This paper also deals with the contribution of various age groups for the increase in the life expectancy at birth during the same period. For the purpose of the study, annual estimates of age-specific death rates covering the period 1970 to 1986 have been taken from the annual year book of sample registration system published by the Registrar General of India...."
Correspondence: K. Navaneetham, Centre for Development Studies, Prasanth Nagar Road, Ulloor, Trivandrum 695 011, Kerala, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20116 Ranjan, Alok. Mortality change in India: 1970-85. Demography India, Vol. 22, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1993. 97-112 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The present paper...attempts to analyze the contribution of...mortality in the first year of life and mortality beyond the first year of life to total mortality change...during the period 1970 through 1985 that has taken place in [India] as well as in its major States. The analysis is extended to different sub-groups of the population [and] mortality differentials [are discussed]."
Correspondence: A. Ranjan, Shyman Institute of Public Cooperation and Community Development, Mudian Ka Kuan, Datia, Madhya Pradesh 475 661, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20117 Rogers, Richard G. Sociodemographic characteristics of long-lived and healthy individuals. Population and Development Review, Vol. 21, No. 1, Mar 1995. 33-58, 217, 219 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Most mortality studies have explored the characteristics that contribute to early death. This article instead examines factors that lead to longer lives, to determine whether healthy practices contribute years of life synergistically, additively, or partially, and to show age and sex differences in cause-specific mortality. The results indicate that life expectancies in the United States for healthy agers approach 83 years for males and 93 for females. Even among healthy agers a large sex gap in mortality persists."
Correspondence: R. G. Rogers, University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program, Campus Box 484, Boulder, CO 80309-0484. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20118 Tolley, H. Dennis; Hickman, James C.; Lew, Edward A. Actuarial and demographic forecasting methods. In: Forecasting the health of elderly populations, edited by Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, and Richard M. Suzman. 1993. 39-49 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"In this chapter we review some of the techniques used by actuaries in the private insurance industry operating under U.S. insurance law." The authors note that actuaries in other fields, such as social security and health, are operating under different rules and constraints, therefore "many of the forecasting methods used by actuaries in the life insurance area are not directly portable to other actuarial applications."
Correspondence: H. D. Tolley, Brigham Young University, Center for Statistical and Computing Research, Talmage Math/Computer Building 226, Provo, UT 84602. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20119 United States. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC] (Atlanta, Georgia). Mortality patterns--United States, 1992. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Vol. 43, No. 49, Dec 16, 1994. 916-20 pp. Atlanta, Georgia. In Eng.
"This report summarizes an analysis of final [U.S.] mortality data for 1992 and compares patterns with 1991....Cause-of-death statistics were based on the underlying cause of death. Data are presented only for blacks and whites....The findings in this report indicate that death rates have declined for most leading causes, including chronic diseases (e.g., heart disease and stroke) and unintentional injuries; however, death rates associated with HIV infection have increased. Race-specific differences in death rates may reflect variations in factors such as socioeconomic status, access to medical care, and the prevalence of specific risks."
Correspondence: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20120 Zarate, Alvan O. International mortality chartbook: levels and trends, 1955-91. Pub. Order No. DHHS (PHS) 95-1008. ISBN 0-8406-0497-1. LC 94-28024. Dec 1994. vii, 191 pp. U.S. National Center for Health Statistics [NCHS]: Hyattsville, Maryland. In Eng.
"This report contains figures showing country rankings and trends for selected causes of death and variations in patterns of mortality in the United States and 40 industrialized countries. Tables showing mortality rates from selected causes for each country are also provided." The data are primarily from the U.S. National Vital Statistics System and the World Health Organization, and are for the period 1955-1991.
Correspondence: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, 6525 Belcrest Road, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.2. Prenatal and Perinatal Mortality

Studies dealing primarily with fetal and neonatal mortality, except those dealing with spontaneous abortions, which are classified under F.3. Sterility and Other Pathology , and those studies dealing with induced abortions, which are classified under F.4.5. Induced Abortion . Perinatal mortality is defined as mortality occurring between the twenty-eighth week of gestation and the seventh day of life.

61:20121 Nolan, Brian; Magee, Hugh. Perinatal mortality and low birthweight by socio-economic background: evidence for Ireland. Economic and Social Review, Vol. 25, No. 4, Jul 1994. 321-41 pp. Dublin, Ireland. In Eng.
"Newly-available data from the perinatal reporting system are used to examine the variation across socio-economic groups in perinatal mortality and low birthweight rates in Ireland. The results show significant effects of socio-economic background, mother's age and parity (number of previous births) on both perinatal mortality and low birthweight. The risk of perinatal mortality is highest where the father is an unskilled manual worker or unemployed, and this effect is most pronounced where the mother is aged 35 or more. Low birthweight is most prevalent for mothers from that socio-economic background aged under 20."
Correspondence: B. Nolan, Economic and Social Research Institute, 4 Burlington Road, Dublin 4, Ireland. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

61:20122 Wilcox, Allen; Skjaerven, Rolv; Buekens, Pierre; Kiely, John. Birth weight and perinatal mortality: a comparison of the United States and Norway. JAMA: Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 273, No. 9, Mar 1, 1995. 709-11 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
Perinatal mortality in Norway and the United States is compared using data on 7,445,914 U.S. births and 105,084 Norwegian births for the years 1986 and 1987. The authors conclude that "the prevention of excess mortality among U.S. infants depends on the prevention of preteen births, not on changes in mean birth weight."
Correspondence: A. Wilcox, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Epidemiology Branch, P.O. Box 12233, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

E.3. Infant and Childhood Mortality

Studies of infant mortality under one year of age, including neonatal mortality occurring after the seventh day of life, and childhood mortality after one year of age. The subject of infanticide, deliberate or implied, is also classified under this heading.

61:20123 Aguirre, Alejandro. Extension of the preceding birth technique. Genus, Vol. 50, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1994. 151-69 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"The Preceding Birth Technique (PBT) consists [of] asking women at a moment close to a delivery about the survival of their previous children. The proportion of preceding children dead produces an index of early childhood mortality....An extension of the PBT is developed to correct [errors in] child mortality estimates. The extension is illustrated with an application to data collected by the Mexican Institute for Social Security."
Correspondence: A. Aguirre, El Colegio de Mexico, Camino al Ajusco 20, 01000 Mexico, DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20124 Ahonsi, Babatunde A. Age variations in the proximate determinants of child mortality in south-west Nigeria. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 27, No. 1, Jan 1995. 19-30 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"Age variations in the influences of three sets of proximate factors on child survival in Ondo State, Nigeria, during 1981-86 are described. Biodemographic factors covary very strongly with mortality risks during the first month of life, weakly during months 1-11, and imperceptibly beyond infancy. Microenvironmental factors progressively strongly covary with mortality after the neonatal period, while health services accessibility and care factors broadly covary strongly with mortality throughout early childhood. Patterns in the size of the hypothetical population-level impacts of these factors suggest that promoting assisted use of toilet facilities within households by under-5s and wider provision of dispensaries and hospitals would yield cost-effective and notable reductions in overall childhood mortality levels in the study setting."
Correspondence: B. A. Ahonsi, University of Lagos, Department of Sociology, Lagos, Nigeria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20125 Bennett, Trude; Braveman, Paula; Egerter, Susan; Kiely, John L. Maternal marital status as a risk factor for infant mortality. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 26, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1994. 252-6, 271 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Our current study examines the interactions between marital status and other risk factors for infant mortality to gain a better understanding of the specific contribution of marital status....We used the linked [U.S.] infant birth and death certificates that were available at the time of this study--data for the years 1983 to 1985." Results indicate that "the increased risk of infant mortality associated with single motherhood is neither consistent among social and demographic subgroups nor inevitable....Maternal age is the only variable found to have a significant interaction with marital status among black mothers, and the risk associated with unmarried status increases with age. Among white mothers, age, educational level and receipt of prenatal care all show significant interactions with marital status; the increased risks of infant mortality attributed to unmarried motherhood are concentrated among subgroups usually thought to be at lower risk."
Correspondence: T. Bennett, University of North Carolina, School of Public Health, Department of Maternal and Child Health, Chapel Hill, NC 27514. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20126 Binka, F. N.; Maude, G. H.; Gyapong, M.; Ross, D. A.; Smith, P. G. Risk factors for child mortality in northern Ghana: a case-control study. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 24, No. 1, Feb 1995. 127-35 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"A population-based case-control study was carried out to investigate potential risk factors for post-neonatal and child mortality in northern Ghana where child survival rates are among the lowest in Africa....The mortality rate for children aged 6 months to 4 years was estimated as 23.9/1,000 children/year....Few strong risk factors for mortality were identified, perhaps because living conditions within the study population are relatively homogeneous."
Correspondence: F. N. Binka, Ministry of Health, Navrongo Health Research Centre, P.O. Box 114, Navrongo, Ghana. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20127 Bird, Sheryl T.; Bauman, Karl E. The relationship between structural and health services variables and state-level infant mortality in the United States. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 85, No. 1, Jan 1995. 26-9 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This study compared the relative strength of the associations of a set of structural (social, economic, and political) variables and a set of health services variables with state-level infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality [in the United States]. It also examined whether health services mediate the relationships between structural variables and state-level infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality." The authors conclude that "a substantial portion of the variance in state-level infant mortality is accounted for by states' structural characteristics, which are partially mediated by health services."
Correspondence: S. T. Bird, University of Pittsburgh, University Center for Social and Urban Research, Office of Child Development/Policy and Evaluation Project, 121 University Place, Pittsburgh, PA 15260. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20128 Brockerhoff, Martin. Child survival in big cities: the disadvantages of migrants. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 40, No. 10, May 1995. 1,371-83 pp. Tarrytown, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Data from 15 Demographic and Health Surveys are used to examine whether rural-urban migrants in developing countries experience higher child mortality after settling in towns and cities than do lifelong urban residents, and if so, what individual or household characteristics account for this. Findings indicate that children of female migrants from the countryside generally have much poorer survival chances than other urban children." Differences by region and by size of city are reviewed.
Correspondence: M. Brockerhoff, Population Council, Research Division, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

61:20129 Bulut, Aysen; Gokcay, Gulbin; Neyzi, Olcay; Shorter, Frederic. Perinatal, neonatal, and under-five mortality in Istanbul based on representative samples of burial records. In: Measurement of maternal and child mortality, morbidity and health care: interdisciplinary approaches, edited by J. Ties Boerma. [1994]. 153-73 pp. Ordina Editions: Liege, Belgium; International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
The authors report on a study conducted in Turkey, which attempted "to determine whether current information could be obtained from the burial records of Istanbul City in 1987-88 without a serious time lag for compilation and publication....This study poses the following questions: Is it possible to obtain a reasonably complete count of deaths below age 5 in the city and to learn some of their most important characteristics: age, sex, place of death, and cause of death? Do any of the patterns by age, sex, or cause of death suggest 'soft spots' that are opportunities for improvement in the health care system of the city?"
Correspondence: A. Bulut, University of Istanbul, Institute of Child Health, Beyazit, Istanbul, Turkey. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20130 Burkhalter, Barton R.; Miller, Roy I.; Silva, Leiser; Burleigh, Elizabeth. Variations in estimates of Guatemalan infant mortality, vaccination coverage, and ORS use reported by different sources. Bulletin of the Pan American Health Organization, Vol. 29, No. 1, Mar 1995. 1-24 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"All available estimates of rates of infant mortality, vaccination coverage (for BCG, DPT 3, polio 3, measles, and tetanus toxoid), and ORS [oral rehydration salts] use in Guatemala in the 1980s were identified and investigated. A large number of sources and estimates were found. Large discrepancies were also found between the estimates for a given indicator, even when the estimates were reported for the same year by the same source....Part of [the] discussion illustrates how organizations contribute to such variation by incorrectly citing, using, and reporting estimates from other sources."
Correspondence: B. R. Burkhalter, BASICS Project, 1600 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA 22209. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20131 Caceres, Francisco I. Morbidity, mortality, and maternal-child health in the Dominican Republic. [Morbi-mortalidad y salud materno infantil en la Republica Dominicana.] Serie Monografica, No. 5, Dec 1994. 45 pp. Asociacion Dominicana Pro-Bienestar de la Familia [PROFAMILIA], Instituto de Estudios de Poblacion y Desarrollo [IEPD]: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. In Spa.
The main results from a survey on maternal and child health in the Dominican Republic are presented. The first chapter analyzes infant mortality trends and differentials by region, educational level and occupation of parents, and housing conditions; causes of infant deaths; and maternal mortality. The second chapter examines the morbidity of preschool-age children, and the third chapter looks at maternal morbidity and maternal health services.
Correspondence: Asociacion Dominicana Pro-Bienestar de la Familia, Instituto de Estudios de Poblacion y Desarrollo, Socorro Sanches No. 64, Zona 1, Apartado Postal 1053, Santo Domingo, DN, Dominican Republic. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20132 Centro de Estudios de Poblacion y Paternidad Responsable [CEPAR] (Quito, Ecuador). Biological variables and infant survival. [Las variables biologicas y sobrevivencia infantil.] Temas Poblacionales, No. 4, Dec 1990. 20 pp. Quito, Ecuador. In Spa.
The determinants of infant and child mortality in Ecuador are investigated, with a focus on the impact of reproductive patterns and various biological factors. Aspects considered include birth spacing, maternal age, birth order, and number of children.
Correspondence: Centro de Estudios de Poblacion y Paternidad Responsable, Toribio Montes 423 y Daniel Hidalgo, Casilla No. 17-01-2327, Quito, Ecuador. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20133 Elo, Irma T.; Miller, Jane E. Ever-breastfed status and health at birth. In: Measurement of maternal and child mortality, morbidity and health care: interdisciplinary approaches, edited by J. Ties Boerma. [1994]. 309-31 pp. Ordina Editions: Liege, Belgium; International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"In this paper we use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys in Peru and the Dominican Republic to investigate the relations among health of the infant at birth, breastfeeding initiation, and infant survival in two populations where breastfeeding is initiated for the vast majority of infants....The principal objective of this analysis is to evaluate a number of different strategies for removing cases for which poor health at birth caused both failure to initiate breastfeeding and death of the infant. We examine three possible approaches to removing spurious cases from the analysis of the relation between ever-breastfed status and infant survival: 1) controlling for birth weight or prematurity status, 2) excluding the first week or first month of life from the age range under study, and 3) using mother's reports of reasons for why the infant was never breastfed as the basis for excluding cases of reverse causation."
Correspondence: I. T. Elo, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20134 Fauveau, Vincent; Briend, Andre; Chakraborty, J.; Khan, S. A. Chest circumference at birth and risk of early mortality: a valid alternative to birth weight. In: Measurement of maternal and child mortality, morbidity and health care: interdisciplinary approaches, edited by J. Ties Boerma. [1994]. 299-308 pp. Ordina Editions: Liege, Belgium; International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"This study reports on the experience of a community-based measurement of chest circumference at birth (CCB) in a rural Bangladeshi population. We verify the correlation of CCB with birth weight and analyze the risk of early mortality according to CCB."
Correspondence: V. Fauveau, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Matlab MCH-FP Project, G.P.O. Box 128, Dhaka 2, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20135 Gray, Ronald H. Interview based diagnosis of morbidity and causes of death. In: Measurement of maternal and child mortality, morbidity and health care: interdisciplinary approaches, edited by J. Ties Boerma. [1994]. 61-84 pp. Ordina Editions: Liege, Belgium; International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"[This] review will examine verbal autopsy diagnoses for childhood conditions of public health importance in developing countries. For each disease we briefly review the main questions used in verbal autopsy diagnoses, and evidence for the accuracy of verbal autopsy diagnoses, as well as experience with field studies."
Correspondence: R. H. Gray, Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20136 Greenhalgh, Susan. The social dynamics of child mortality in village Shaanxi. Population Council Research Division Working Paper, No. 66, 1994. 44 pp. Population Council, Research Division: New York, New York. In Eng.
"Today there is widespread consensus that the rapid decline in mortality achieved by China after 1949 was due to large investments in public health and nutrition and, to a lesser extent, education. While not challenging the crucial role of public health investments, this paper argues that little-explored social factors may also be important. Its most basic proposition is that the Communist revolution of 1949 reduced mortality in part by fundamentally altering family structure and organization....Drawing on field data gathered from three villages in the northwestern province of Shaanxi, the paper develops and tests a series of hypotheses about the links between changes in family organization and the decline in infant and child mortality during the decades 1940-79."
Correspondence: Population Council, Research Division, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20137 Hao, Hongsheng; Kim, Minja; Wang, Feng. The effect of gender and other factors on early child mortality in China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 6, No. 3, 1994. 251-62 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper examines the degree of sex differentials [in China] and their correlated factors through analysis of early child [mortality]....We consider gender as one of the many factors related to child mortality risks. In order to control other factors likely to affect differentials in child mortality, [our] analyses have included community-level and family-level covariates commonly related to child mortality....Although child mortality in China has fallen by a large margin in recent years, differentials in mortality still exist among different socio-economic groups....The data analysis also shows that experience of previous infant or child death and preceding birth interval have strong effects on the survival of second- or higher-order births."
Correspondence: H. Hao, Chinese People's University, Institute of Population Research, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20138 Hill, Kenneth; Upchurch, Dawn M. Gender differences in child health: evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Population and Development Review, Vol. 21, No. 1, Mar 1995. 127-51, 218, 220 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Our objective is to use data from the DHS [for developing countries] to measure the extent of gender differences in infant and child mortality and to explore the reasons for these differences in terms of gender differences in health status, disease incidence, preventive and curative treatment, and social status. The presentation is in terms of girl-boy differences. For mortality measures, we develop an index based on historical differences in child mortality by sex in settings that demonstrate relatively low gender discrimination. For other indicators, the measure used is generally the absolute difference between the percentages of girls and boys with a particular characteristic."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1994 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: K. Hill, Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Department of Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20139 Kertzer, David I.; White, Michael J. Cheating the angel-makers: surviving infant abandonment in nineteenth-century Italy. Continuity and Change, Vol. 9, No. 3, Dec 1994. 451-80 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"Until the end of the nineteenth century in a large part of Europe, huge numbers of babies were consigned to a system of institutionalized infant abandonment. Although one of the primary justifications given for the system was that of saving the lives of babies who would otherwise die, nineteenth-century reformers charged that foundling homes were nothing more than 'slaughter-houses', the site of 'legalized infanticide'. In this article the Italian evidence for this claim is evaluated, with special attention given to the case of the Bologna foundling home in the years 1809-1870."
Correspondence: D. I. Kertzer, Brown University, Population Studies and Training Center, Box 1916, Providence, RI 02912. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20140 Kintner, Hallie J. Infant mortality decline in Germany, 1871-1925: the roles of changes in variables and changes in the structure of relations. Genus, Vol. 50, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1994. 117-32 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"This paper applies regression decomposition procedures to the infant mortality decline in Germany 1871-1925....Data concern 59 administrative areas at seven times. In contrast to contemporary less developed countries, little of this historical infant mortality decline is explained either by changes in the relationships between infant mortality and the variables considered here or by exogenous factors. Rather, trends in variable values account for most of the decline. Smaller family size and more hygienic child care improved living conditions for infants, thereby increasing their survivorship."
Correspondence: H. J. Kintner, University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20141 Kumar, Narender. Regression diagnostics with aggregate data. Demography India, Vol. 22, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1993. 77-88 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The present paper has developed a regression model for under five mortality, and the significance of diagnostic checks for aggregate data has been brought out....[Results indicate] that transformation of data may not always be necessary even if data consists of rates and percentages." Data are for 92 countries and concern selected years from 1980 to 1986.
Correspondence: N. Kumar, Indian Council on Medical Research, Division of N.C.D., Ansari Nagar, New Delhi 110 029, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20142 Madise, Nyovani J.; Diamond, Ian. Determinants of infant mortality in Malawi: an analysis to control for death clustering within families. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 27, No. 1, Jan 1995. 95-106 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"The 1988 Malawi Traditional and Modern Methods of Child Spacing Survey data are used to identify determinants of infant mortality in Malawi. The logistic binomial analysis shows that socioeconomic factors are significant even during the neonatal period while the length of the preceding birth interval is significant in the post-neonatal period only. There is a strong familial correlation of mortality risks during both the neonatal and post-neonatal periods but the effect of geographical area of residence is stronger in the post-neonatal period."
Correspondence: N. J. Madise, University of Southampton, Department of Social Statistics, Southampton S09 5NH, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20143 Palloni, Alberto; Pinto Aguirre, Guido; Lastiri, Santiago. Reproductive regimes and early childhood mortality in Mexico. CDE Working Paper, No. 93-14, Nov 1993. 38, [29] pp. University of Wisconsin, Center for Demography and Ecology: Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
Early childhood mortality in Mexico is analyzed using data from the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey. The two primary objectives of the study are "first, to assess the effects of pace of childbearing and breastfeeding on early child mortality. Second, to evaluate the impact that changes in pace of childbearing and associated changes in patterns of breastfeeding may have on infant and child mortality. Part of this goal is to evaluate the potential survival benefits that are likely to accrue from policies aimed at reducing fertility."
Correspondence: University of Wisconsin, Center for Demography and Ecology, 4412 Social Science Building, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706-1393. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20144 Park, Chai Bin; Siasakul, Sakol; Saengtienchai, Chanpen. Effect of birth spacing on infant survival in Thailand: two-stage logit analysis. East-West Center Reprints: Population Series, No. 306, 1994. [10] pp. East-West Center, Program on Population [POP]: Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
"We formulated a two-stage causal model for infant survival and applied it to data drawn from the 1987 Thai Demographic and Health Survey covering the fate of 5,074 index children....The analysis suggests that the birth interval not only directly affected the chance of infant survival but it played the role of the filtering factor through which other variables indirectly operate on infant mortality. The effect of preceding child's death was very strong...."
This paper is reprinted from the Southeast Asian Journal of Tropical Medicine and Public Health (Bangkok, Thailand), Vol. 25, No. 1, 1994, pp. 50-9.
Correspondence: East-West Center, Program on Population, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20145 Ren, Xinhua Steve. Sex differences in infant and child mortality in three provinces in China. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 40, No. 9, May 1995. 1,259-69 pp. Tarrytown, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Despite the Communist government's campaign to narrow the sexual inequality in China since the 1949 Revolution, male dominance and son preference are still evident in many parts of the country. Using retrospective reports on infant and child mortality from the 1985 and 1987 In-Depth Fertility Surveys in Shaanxi, Liaoning and Guangdong provinces of China, the study examines the effects of this persistence of sexual inequality on the differential survival for males and females. The study shows that female infants and children have higher than expected mortality rates, suggesting that son preference may lead to discriminatory practices against females. The study also reveals that the one-child policy of the late 1970s has a strong influence on the survivorship for female infants and children."
Correspondence: X. S. Ren, Harvard University, School of Public Health, Health Institute, 750 Washington Street, P.O. Box 345, Boston, MA 02111. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20146 Riveron Corteguera, Raul L. Strategies and causes of reduced infant and young child diarrheal disease mortality in Cuba, 1962-1993. Bulletin of the Pan American Health Organization, Vol. 29, No. 1, Mar 1995. 70-80 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This article describes the basic strategies employed by Cuba's Diarrheal Disease Control Program (DDCP) to reduce acute diarrheal disease (ADD) mortality among infants and young children from 1962 through 1993, together with the diarrheal disease trends recorded in these years....Efforts have concentrated on providing improved sanitation, effective health education, proper nutrition (including promotion of breast-feeding and food hygiene), and adequate health care (which in recent times has placed increasing emphasis on oral rehydration therapy and primary care). Largely as a result, recorded infant ADD mortality fell from 12.9 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1962 to 0.3 in 1993, while recorded mortality from this cause among children 1-4 years old dropped from 6.4 deaths per 10,000 children in this age group in 1962 to 0.1 in 1993. Besides describing the work performed through 1993, the author also outlines plans for the period through 1999 that are directed at maintaining and perhaps augmenting these gains."
Correspondence: R. L. Riveron Corteguera, Calzada 602, Apartado 302 entre B y C, Vedado, Plaza, 10400 Havana 4, Cuba. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20147 Salway, Sarah M.; Nasim, S. M. Asib. Levels, trends and causes of mortality in children below 5 years of age in Bangladesh: findings from a national survey. Journal for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Vol. 12, No. 3, Sep 1994. 187-93 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"A nationwide survey, conducted in 1992-93 by the Control of Diarrhoeal Disease Programme, Government of Bangladesh, made national estimates of levels and causes of child mortality. A gradual downward trend in infant and child mortality was observed from the mid 1980s. Current mortality rates among infants and children below 5 years were estimated to be around 100 and 150 per 1,000 live births respectively. More than a quarter of deaths in children below 5 years were found to be associated with diarrhoea. Acute respiratory tract infections were also shown to be a major killer of young children."
Correspondence: S. M. Salway, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Urban Health Extension Project, G.P.O. Box 128, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20148 Singh, Gopal K.; Kposowa, Augustine J. A comparative analysis of infant mortality in major Ohio cities: significance of socio-biological factors. Applied Behavioral Science Review, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1994. 77-94 pp. Greenwich, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
"Using linked birth and infant death records for Ohio for the 1984-87 birth cohorts, this paper examines differentials in neonatal, postneonatal, and infant mortality rates in four major Ohio cities....It was found that, compared to Toledo, Cleveland had 51% higher risk of infant death, Cincinnati had 45% higher risk, [and] Columbus had 13% higher risk of infant death. Although in each of these cities, black infants had significantly higher risk of death than white infants, controlling for race alone reduced but did not eliminate the infant mortality differentials among the cities. The results of the hazards analyses reveal that maternal education, marital status, maternal age, birth order, prenatal care, gestational age, and birth weight had a profound net impact on the risk of infant death and that, even after controlling for these and other maternal and infant characteristics, significant city differentials persisted in infant mortality."
Correspondence: G. K. Singh, U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, Division of Health Statistics, 6525 Belcrest Road, Room 840, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20149 Stockwell, Edward G.; Goza, Franklin W.; Jiang, Yunan; Luse, Verl O. Trends in the relationship between socioeconomic status and infant mortality in metropolitan Ohio, 1960-1990. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 13, No. 4, Dec 1994. 399-410 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper presents the results of an ecological analysis of the relationship between infant mortality and economic status in metropolitan Ohio at four points in time centering on the censuses of 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1990....The most important conclusion to be drawn from the data is that in spite of some very remarkable declines in infant mortality for all socioeconomic groups since 1960, there continues to be a very clear and pronounced inverse association between income status and infant mortality. Indeed, there is some evidence to suggest that it is stronger in 1990 than it was three decades earlier. The general inverse association is observed for both sexes, for whites and nonwhites, and for all major causes of death. At the same time, the data reveal notable variations in the pattern of the relationship over time, as well as several differences between whites and nonwhites in the nature and magnitude of the relationship. Some macro-economic hypotheses are offered to explain these temporal and racial differences in the pattern of the relationship between economic status and infant mortality."
Correspondence: E. G. Stockwell, Bowling Green State University, Department of Sociology, Bowling Green, OH 43403-0231. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20150 United Nations. Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis. Population Division (New York, New York). The health rationale for family planning: timing of births and child survival. No. ST/ESA/SER.A/141, Pub. Order No. E.95.XIII.3. ISBN 92-1-151275-1. 1994. vii, 112 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The present study has been undertaken to examine the relations between fertility and child survival in the 1980s, a decade when the movement for child survival became important, and to formulate policy guidelines based on more recent findings. In the first part of the study, tabular analysis is used to assess the excess risks of child mortality associated with child-bearing too early or with short intervals between births. The second part uses multivariate analysis in order to examine how far the differences observed are affected by a range of controls, such as mother's education, father's education, father's occupation and place of residence. The study uses data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and covers 25 developing countries."
Correspondence: UN Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20151 United States. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC] (Atlanta, Georgia). Infant mortality--United States, 1992. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Vol. 43, No. 49, Dec 16, 1994. 905-9 pp. Atlanta, Georgia. In Eng.
"This report characterizes [U.S.] infant mortality in 1992 using information from birth and death certificates compiled by CDC's National Center for Health Statistics and compares findings with those for 1991. In this report, cause-of-death statistics are based on the underlying cause of death reported on the death certificate....This analysis examines race-specific mortality rates."
Correspondence: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.4. Mortality at Other Ages

Studies of age-specific mortality and of mortality in special groups defined by age.

61:20152 Kannisto, Vaino; Lauritsen, Jens; Thatcher, A. Roger; Vaupel, James W. Reductions in mortality at advanced ages: several decades of evidence from 27 countries. Population and Development Review, Vol. 20, No. 4, Dec 1994. 793-810, 921-4 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"It is widely assumed that mortality at advanced ages is attributable to old age per se and that death rates at advanced ages cannot be substantially reduced. Using a larger body of data than previously available, the authors find that developed countries have made progress in reducing death rates even at the highest ages. Furthermore, the pace of this progress has accelerated over the course of the twentieth century. In most developed countries outside Eastern Europe, average death rates at ages 80-99 have declined at a rate of 1 to 2 percent per year for females and 0.5 to 1.5 percent per year for males since the 1960s. For an aggregate of nine countries with reliable data through 1991, the annual average rate of improvement between 1982-86 and 1987-91 was 1.7 percent for male octogenarians and 2.5 percent for female octogenarians."
Correspondence: V. Kannisto, Campo Grande 1-6D, 1700 Lisbon, Portugal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20153 Losonczy, Katalin G.; Harris, Tamara B.; Cornoni-Huntley, Joan; Simonsick, Eleanor M.; Wallace, Robert B.; Cook, Nancy R.; Ostfeld, Adrian M.; Blazer, Dan G. Does weight loss from middle age to old age explain the inverse weight mortality relation in old age? American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 141, No. 4, Feb 15, 1995. 312-21 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"The authors examined body mass index at middle age, body mass index in old age, and weight change between age 50 years and old age in relation to mortality in old age. The study population from the [U.S.] Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly consisted of 6,387 whites age 70 years or older who experienced 2,650 deaths during the period 1982-1987. Mortality risk was highest for persons in the heaviest quintile of body mass index at age 50...compared with persons in the middle quintile. This pattern was reversed for body mass index in old age, with persons in the lowest quintile having the highest mortality risk....This reversal was explained, in part, by weight change. Compared with persons with stable weight, those who lost 10 percent or more of body weight between age 50 and old age had the highest risk of mortality....The inverse association of weight and mortality in old age appears to reflect illness-related weight loss from heavier weight in the middle-age. Weight history may be critical to understanding weight and mortality relations in old age."
Correspondence: K. G. Losonczy, National Institute on Aging, Epidemiology, Demography and Biometry Program, Gateway Building, Room 3C-309, 7201 Wisconsin Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20892-9205. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20154 Vaupel, James W.; Lundstrom, Hans. The future of mortality at older ages in developed countries. In: The future population of the world. What can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1994. 295-315 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
The authors note that "most deaths in developed countries occur at older ages, future trends in death rates at older ages are particularly uncertain, and alternative trends have very different demographic implications...." They therefore "review the reasons for the uncertainty surrounding the future of death rates at older ages and then present some new evidence based on Swedish data." They conclude that the Swedish example suggests that it is possible to reduce death rates significantly after age 80.
Correspondence: J. W. Vaupel, Odense University Medical School, 5230 Odense M, Denmark. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.5. Life Tables

Studies that present actual life table data and all studies concerned primarily with life tables, including the appropriate methodological studies. Life table studies that are concerned with topics other than mortality are classified under the appropriate heading and cross-referenced to this heading.

61:20155 Belgium. Institut National de Statistique (Brussels, Belgium). Life tables, 1991-1993. [Tables de mortalite, 1991-1993.] 1994. 81 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
Life tables are presented for Belgium for the period 1991-1993. The tables are presented separately for Belgians and foreigners, by sex and region, and by sex and province. Data are also presented on mortality trends from 1880 to 1993.
Correspondence: Institut National de Statistique, 44 rue de Louvain, Centre Albert, 8e etage, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20156 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). The 44th abridged life tables (April 1, 1990-March 31, 1991). Institute of Population Problems Research Series, No. 271, Feb 14, 1992. 29 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Abridged life tables arranged by sex are presented for Japan for 1990-1991.
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20157 Ponnapalli, Krishna M.; Parasuraman, Sulbha. SRS based abridged life tables 1986-90 (using Schoen (1978) method). IIPS Research Report Series, No. 10, 1993-1994. i, 35 pp. International Institute for Population Sciences [IIPS]: Bombay, India. In Eng.
"An attempt has been made here to construct [in the absence of any official ones] abridged life tables for the period 1986-90 for India and major States separately by sex, rural and urban areas....A comparative picture of the present life tables with that of 1970-75, 1976-80 and 1981-85 life tables made by the Office of the Registrar General of India was provided in terms of different summary tables...." Data are from the Sample Registration System.
Correspondence: International Institute for Population Sciences, Govandi Station Road, Deonar, Bombay 400 088, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20158 Spain. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica [INE] (Madrid, Spain). Life tables for the Spanish population, 1990-1991. [Tablas de mortalidad de la poblacion Espanola, 1990-91.] ISBN 84-260-2818-7. 1993. 44 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
Life tables are presented by sex and age for Spain using 1991 census data.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Paseo de la Castellana 183, 28071 Madrid 16, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.6. Differential Mortality

Studies on the ratio of mortality in different subgroups of a population, classified according to certain criteria, such as sex, social class, occupation, and marital status. Also includes studies on excess mortality and comparative mortality.

61:20159 Blair, Steven N.; Kohl, Harold W.; Barlow, Carolyn E.; Paffenbarger, Ralph S.; Gibbons, Larry W.; Macera, Caroline A. Changes in physical fitness and all-cause mortality: a prospective study of healthy and unhealthy men. JAMA: Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 273, No. 14, Apr 12, 1995. 1,093-8 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
This study examines the relationship between changes in physical fitness and risk of mortality using data on 9,777 U.S. men who were given two clinical examinations about five years apart. The results show that "men who maintained or improved adequate physical fitness were less likely to die from all causes and from cardiovascular disease during follow-up than persistently unfit men. Physicians should encourage unfit men to improve their fitness by starting a physical activity program."
Correspondence: S. N. Blair, Cooper Institute for Aerobics Research, Division of Epidemiology, 12330 Preston Road, Dallas, TX 75230. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20160 Bosma, H.; Appels, A.; Sturmans, F.; Grabauskas, V.; Gostautas, A. Educational level of spouses and risk of mortality: the WHO Kaunas-Rotterdam Intervention Study (KRIS). International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 24, No. 1, Feb 1995. 119-26 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"A 9.5-year follow-up of the Kaunas-Rotterdam Intervention Study (KRIS) provided the opportunity of investigating whether the educational level of wives was associated with their husbands' risk of mortality and coronary heart disease (CHD), independently of the educational level of the husbands themselves....The data represent populations consisting of 2,452 Lithuanian men and 3,365 Dutch men....We found that men whose spouses had little education apparently had an increased risk of all-cause mortality, even when their own educational level was taken into account."
Correspondence: A. Appels, University of Limburg, Cardiovascular Research Institute, Department of Medical Psychology, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20161 Carmelli, Dorit; Swan, Gary E.; Page, William F.; Christian, Joe C. World War II-veteran male twins who are discordant for alcohol consumption: 24-year mortality. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 85, No. 1, Jan 1995. 99-101 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The role of genetic and shared environmental influences in the association of alcohol with mortality was studied by using the [U.S.] National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council World War II-veteran male twin registry." The results indicate a protective effect for light or moderate drinking as compared to abstention, an effect which did not persist in twins who were smokers.
Correspondence: D. Carmelli, SRI International, Health Sciences Program, 333 Ravenswood Avenue, Menlo Park, CA 94025. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20162 Chaurasia, Alok. Regional variations in age pattern of mortality in India. Journal of Institute of Economic Research, Vol. 27, No. 2, Jul 1992. 1-11 pp. Dharwad, India. In Eng.
"Using the cluster analysis technique and Heligman-Pollard mortality model, the present paper analyses the regional variations in age pattern of mortality in India around 1986-88. The paper identifies three broad patterns of age-specific mortality rates in the country--the Central-India Pattern; the South-India Pattern; and the North-West India Pattern. In addition, Kerala has its own typical pattern of age-specific mortality. Similarly, Assam (Males) and Jammu and Kashmir (Males) have their own typical pattern of age-specific mortality rates while the same is also true for Rajasthan (Females). The implications of age patterns of mortality identified in this analysis have also been discussed."
Correspondence: A. Chaurasia, Shyam Institute of Public Co-operation and Community Development, Mudian, Ka Kuan, Datia, Madhya Pradesh 475 661, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20163 Courbage, Youssef; Khlat, Myriam. Mortality and causes of death of Moroccans in France, 1979-1991. [La mortalite et les causes de deces des Marocains en France, 1979-1991.] Population, Vol. 50, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1995. 7-32 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"Official French death statistics for Moroccan men in France (1979-91) suggest very substantial under-mortality. Moroccan women have higher death rates than French women. The doubts raised by these findings suggest that an indirect assessment of the completeness of these death figures could be worthwhile....Assessment of official French child mortality statistics for the under 20s (two-thirds of whom were born in France) suggest that the rates are accurately reported. Although there are few omissions in the death rates for women aged over 20, the same does not apply to men. Despite adjustment, death rates are lower than for French men...."
Correspondence: Y. Courbage, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20164 de Gouw, Heidi W. F. M.; Westendorp, Rudi G. J.; Kunst, Anton E.; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Vandenbroucke, Jan P. Decreased mortality among contemplative monks in the Netherlands. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 141, No. 8, Apr 15, 1995. 771-5 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
Levels of mortality are examined among a population of contemplative monks living in the Netherlands. "Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and death rates were calculated from 1,523 monks whose data were abstracted from the monastery rolls of the period 1900-1994. For this period the SMR was 0.88....A lower SMR was present in almost all of the age categories and in all except one of the monasteries....Taken together, the present and earlier data suggest that, among contemplative monks, a simple lifestyle is associated with an extension of life in which they suffer from nonfatal morbidity."
Correspondence: R. G. J. Westendorp, Leiden University Hospital, Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Building 1, C0-45, P.O. Box 9600, 2300 RC Leiden, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20165 Dormor, Duncan J. The status of women and mortality. Genus, Vol. 50, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1994. 13-45 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"This paper examines empirically the relationship between the status of women and mortality using cross-sectional data on a large sample of developed and developing nations. Four measures of mortality are considered: infant mortality rate, child death rate, life expectancy at birth and life expectancy at age five. A multiple regression analysis showed that the status of women has an independent effect on mortality, after controlling for other socio-economic factors known to affect mortality. This suggests that policies aimed at enhancing the status of women in developing nations are likely to assist in the reduction of mortality in these nations."
Correspondence: D. J. Dormor, Ripon College, Flat 5, Runcie Buildings, Cuddesdon, Oxford OX44 9EX, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20166 Fuchs, Charles S.; Stampfer, Meir J.; Colditz, Graham A.; Giovannucci, Edward L.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Kawachi, Ichiro; Hunter, David J.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Hennekens, Charles H.; Rosner, Bernard; Speizer, Frank E.; Willett, Walter C. Alcohol consumption and mortality among women. New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 332, No. 19, May 11, 1995. 1,245-50 pp. Boston, Massachusetts. In Eng.
The relationship between alcohol drinking and reductions in overall mortality are analyzed for U.S. women, taking into account the increased risk of breast cancer associated with alcohol drinking. The data are from the Nurses' Health Study, and concern 85,709 healthy women aged 34-59 who completed an original questionnaire in 1980 and were then followed-up over a 12 year period. The results indicate that "among women, light-to-moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a reduced mortality rate, but this apparent survival benefit appears largely confined to women at greater risk for coronary heart disease."
Correspondence: C. S. Fuchs, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, 44 Binney Street, Boston, MA 02115. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20167 Jin, Yangsun; Su, Li; Chang, Pei; Wang, Husheng. A study on patterns in the average life expectancies and mortality rates of 56 nationalities in China in 1990. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 6, No. 3, 1994. 263-79 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article will provide descriptions and comparative analyses of the cross-nationality, cross-region, and cross-gender distribution characteristics of the average life expectancies and mortality rates in China's 56 nationalities (not including Taiwan) so as to evaluate the health conditions in these nationalities....The large differences found in the life expectancies across various nationalities precisely reflect huge gaps in different regions' social and natural conditions."
Correspondence: Y. Jin, Medical Institute of Inner Mongolia, Office of Teaching and Research in Hygienics, Inner Mongolia, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20168 Juel, Knud. High mortality in the Thule cohort: an unhealthy worker effect. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 23, No. 6, Dec 1994. 1,174-8 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
This is an analysis of mortality among the Thule cohort, consisting of 4,322 Danish men employed at the Thule air base in Greenland between 1963 and 1971, some of whom participated in the clean-up operations following a 1968 crash of a U.S. bomber carrying nuclear weapons. The results indicate that "the high mortality and the mortality pattern in the Thule cohort shows strong evidence for selection and provides strong support for the suggestion that these workers constitute a group in poor health probably caused by lifestyle. The study demonstrates that an incomplete analysis (i.e. one limited to a subgroup of workers involved in the radiation clean-up) could lead to spurious conclusions about hazardous occupational exposures."
Correspondence: K. Juel, Danish Institute for Clinical Epidemiology, 25 Svanemollevej, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20169 Lee, I-Min; Hsieh, Chung-cheng; Paffenbarger, Ralph S. Exercise intensity and longevity in men. The Harvard Alumni Health Study. JAMA: Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 273, No. 15, Apr 19, 1995. 1,179-84 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
The independent associations of both vigorous and nonvigorous physical activity with longevity are analyzed using data from the Harvard Alumni Health Study, an ongoing cohort study involving over 17,000 disease-free men followed-up from the 1960s to 1988. The results "demonstrate a graded inverse relationship between total physical activity and mortality. Furthermore, vigorous activities but not nonvigorous activities were associated with longevity. These findings pertain only to all-cause mortality; nonvigorous exercise has been shown to benefit other aspects of health."
Correspondence: I-M. Lee, Harvard University, School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20170 Leon, David A.; Smith, George D.; Shipley, Martin; Strachan, David. Adult height and mortality in London: early life, socioeconomic confounding, or shrinkage? Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Vol. 49, No. 1, Feb 1995. 5-9 pp. London, England. In Eng.
Using the 1967 and 1969 Whitehall study of 18,403 London civil service males, aged 40-64, who were followed up for mortality until the end of January 1987, the authors examine the cause-specific associations between height and mortality. "There was considerable variation in the strength of height-mortality association by cause. Respiratory disease showed the strongest inverse association, cardiovascular disease a moderate effect, and all neoplasms virtually no effect....The cause specific variation in the height-mortality association lends little support to the contention that impaired growth in childhood is a marker of general susceptibility to disease in adulthood."
Correspondence: D. A. Leon, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20171 Rose, Elaina. Consumption smoothing and excess female mortality in rural India. Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper, No. 95-1, Jan 1995. 20, [8] pp. University of Washington, Seattle Population Research Center: Seattle, Washington; Battelle Seattle Research Center: Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"This paper examines the relationship between consumption smoothing and excess female mortality, by asking if favorable rainfall shocks in childhood increase the survival probabilities of girls to a greater extent than they increase boys' survival probabilities for a sample of rural Indian children....The impacts of households' landholdings, parents' education and the availability of health and educational institutions are also assessed."
Correspondence: Seattle Population Research Center, c/o University of Washington, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology Library, Department of Sociology DK-40, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20172 Salhi, Mohamed; Thiltges, Evelyne. The determinants of differential mortality in Norway from 1960 to 1985: a comparison of two life history approaches. [Les determinants de la mortalite differentielle en Norvege entre 1960 et 1985: comparaison de deux approches biographiques.] Institut de Demographie Working Paper, No. 175, ISBN 2-87209-355-9. May 1994. 41 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Fre.
Two methods of studying differential mortality using event history data are applied to the analysis of adult mortality differentials in Norway for the period 1960-1985. Data are from censuses and vital statistics sources.
For a related study by Salhi, published in 1993, see 60:10178.
Correspondence: Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie, Place Montesquieu 1, B.P. 17, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20173 van der Veen, Willem J. Does it matter where I live in Western Europe? An analysis of regional mortality differentials in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1994. 319-48 pp. Hingham, Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Regional differentials in life expectancy at birth during the 1980s in Belgium, The Netherlands and some parts of the former Federal Republic of Germany are presented and commented upon. Life expectancy at birth during the 1980s was highest in the Netherlands, and lowest in some parts of southern Belgium. Substantial differentials existed in 1980, particularly because of differential mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system, lung cancer, breast cancer, motor vehicle accidents and suicide. These differentials persisted throughout the 1980s, but gradually converged. Gains in life expectancy were mainly due to declining cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality. Sharp and persistent differentials between border regions in the study area point to societal and cultural forces bringing about dividing lines between relatively homogeneous mortality profiles."
Correspondence: W. J. van der Veen, University of Groningen, Population Research Centre, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.7. Mortality by Cause

Studies of demographic relevance on causes of death. Studies of morbidity and of public health measures are included only if they relate specifically to mortality. Also included are maternal mortality and comparisons of causes.

61:20174 Bongaarts, John. Projection of the mortality impact of AIDS in Africa. In: The future population of the world. What can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1994. 187-205 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
"The overall objective of this chapter is to obtain estimates of plausible upper and lower boundaries of the mortality impact of the AIDS epidemic in Africa by the end of this century. A brief review of recent trends in the epidemic and the causes of intra-country variation is presented first. This is followed by an application of a computer simulation model to project alternative scenarios for the future HIV epidemic and its mortality impact in Africa."
Correspondence: J. Bongaarts, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20175 Chin, James. Scenarios for the AIDS epidemic in Asia. Asia-Pacific Population Research Report, No. 2, Feb 1995. 15 pp. East-West Center, Program on Population [POP]: Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
"This report traces the origin of HIV infection in Asia, estimates current levels of infection, and develops several scenarios for the future course of the epidemic in the region to the year 2010. Current and projected HIV infection levels for Asia are compared with those documented in sub-Saharan Africa and in North America and Western Europe. Alternative scenarios are also developed for the impact of AIDS on the adult populations of Hong Kong, where the infection rate is low, and of Thailand, where an HIV epidemic is in full swing."
Correspondence: East-West Center, Program on Population, 177 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20176 D'Agostino, Ralph B.; Belanger, Albert J.; Kannel, William B.; Higgins, Millicent. Role of smoking in the U-shaped relation of cholesterol to mortality in men: the Framingham Study. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 141, No. 9, May 1, 1995. 822-7 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"The authors used data collected on 1,959 [U.S.] males aged 35-69 years from the fourth Framingham Study examination to analyze the relations between total serum cholesterol levels and 409 coronary deaths, 325 cancer deaths, and 534 other deaths for a 32-year follow-up." The roles of smoking and alcohol drinking are also taken into account. "A significant U-shaped relation with all-cause mortality was noted, as were an inverse relation to cancer mortality and a monotonic increasing relation with coronary disease mortality. In subset analyses, the association of low serum cholesterol...with cancer mortality was observed in men who smoked cigarettes."
Correspondence: R. B. D'Agostino, Boston University, Department of Mathematics, 111 Cummington Street, Boston, MA 02215. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20177 de la Fuente, Luis; Barrio, Gregorio; Vicente, Julian; Bravo, Maria J.; Santacreu, Jose. The impact of drug-related deaths on mortality among young adults in Madrid. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 85, No. 1, Jan 1995. 102-5 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The trend from 1983 to 1990 of drug-related mortality (defined as the sum of deaths from acute drug reactions and the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome [AIDS] in drug users) among the population 15 to 39 years of age in Madrid, Spain, was studied and compared with mortality from all causes." The results show a general increase in mortality in this age group. "Drug-related mortality represented 60% of the increase in the rate from all causes in males and 170% of the increase in females. The increases in drug-related mortality are likely to continue in the future."
Correspondence: L. de la Fuente, Ministerio de Sanidad y Consumo, Delegacion del Gobierno para el Plan Nacional sobre Drogas, Paseo del Prado 18-20, 28014 Madrid, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20178 Duffy, John C. Alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 24, No. 1, Feb 1995. 100-5 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Prospective studies of alcohol and mortality in middle-aged men almost universally find a U-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and risk of mortality. This review demonstrates the extent to which different studies lead to different risk estimates, analyses the putative influence of abstention as a risk factor and uses available data to produce point and interval estimates of the consumption level apparently associated with minimum risk from two studies in the U.K....The analysis supports the view that abstention may be a specific risk factor for all-cause mortality, but is not an adequate explanation of the apparent protective effect of alcohol consumption against all-cause mortality."
Correspondence: J. C. Duffy, Alcohol Research Group, Department of Psychiatry, Morningside Park, Edinburgh EH10 5HF, Scotland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20179 Eckberg, Douglas L. Estimates of early twentieth-century U.S. homicide rates: an econometric forecasting approach. Demography, Vol. 32, No. 1, Feb 1995. 1-16 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Bureau of the Census death registration records, as reported in Mortality Statistics, are a primary source for early twentieth-century U.S. homicide statistics. Those data appear to show a massive rise in homicide during the first decade of the century, with a continuing increase through 1933. This increase is quite at variance with the trend away from violence in other industrialized societies. During the first one-third of the century, however, death registration was incomplete....Further, in the first decade of the century homicides within the registration area often were reported as accidental deaths. As a result, apparent increases in rates of homicide in the United States between 1900 and 1933 may be illusory. I use a two-step process to address these problems. Drawing on internal evidence and commentaries in early volumes of Mortality Statistics, I use GLS regression to estimate the prevalence of undercounts. Then I create a series of GLS models that use registration area data to estimate early twentieth-century national rates. These estimates call into question the extent of homicide change early in the century."
Correspondence: D. L. Eckberg, Winthrop University, Department of Sociology, Rock Hill, SC 29733. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20180 Fargues, Philippe. Indirect measures of maternal mortality. In: Measurement of maternal and child mortality, morbidity and health care: interdisciplinary approaches, edited by J. Ties Boerma. [1994]. 175-99 pp. Ordina Editions: Liege, Belgium; International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"This paper will evaluate four methods for measuring maternal mortality that might satisfy the needs of...public health planners. Each method will be judged on its ability: to estimate the general level of maternal mortality; to observe any long-term trends; to monitor short-term variations; and to identify differentials in the maternal mortality rate." Methods reviewed include continuous registration, the sisterhood method, life table estimates, and case control studies. The geographical focus is on developing countries.
Correspondence: P. Fargues, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20181 Garnett, Geoff P.; Anderson, Roy M. No reason for complacency about the potential demographic impact of AIDS in Africa. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 87, Suppl. 1, Apr 1993. 19-22 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Much uncertainty surrounds the likely demographic impact of AIDS in the worst afflicted regions of the developing world such as sub-Saharan Africa....This paper reports new analyses of the demographic impact of AIDS, based on observed age-stratified prevalences of HIV-1 infection amongst women of child bearing age. It is assumed that the observed patterns reflect the final endemic state and the implications of this assumption for adult and infant mortality and female reproductive life expectancy are assessed. It is concluded that a variety of scenarios is possible, depending on the detail of assumptions concerning life expectancy before the arrival of AIDS, the incubation period of the disease, and the rate of vertical transmission."
Correspondence: G. P. Garnett, University of London, Imperial College, Department of Biology, Parasite Epidemiology Research Group, London SW7 2BB, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20182 Grab, Christopher. Deaths in 1993 by causes of death. [Sterbefalle 1993 nach Todesursachen.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 12, Dec 1994. 1,033-41 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Data are presented on causes of death in Germany in 1993. Trends since 1990 are also analyzed, and comparisons are made between the former East and West Germany.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

61:20183 Gupta, P. C.; Sankaranarayanan, R.; Ferlay, J. Cancer deaths in India: is the model-based approach valid? Bulletin of the World Health Organization/Bulletin de l'Organisation Mondiale de la Sante, Vol. 72, No. 6, 1994. 943-4 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The model-based cancer mortality estimates for India (775,800) are nearly double the data-based estimates (433,000), and are higher than even the incidence estimates (612,300). The model-based approach is therefore, at least in the case of India, incorrect. Established practice is to use real data to validate theoretical models, not to reject the data if apparently the model does not fit."
Correspondence: R. Sankaranarayanan, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert-Thomas, 69372 Lyons Cedex 08, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20184 Hernandez, B.; Chirinos, J.; Romero, M.; Langer, A. Estimating maternal mortality in rural areas of Mexico: the application of an indirect demographic method. International Journal of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Vol. 46, No. 3, 1994. 285-9 pp. Limerick, Ireland. In Eng.
The sisterhood method of indirect estimation is used to analyze levels of maternal mortality using survey data on 10,443 rural women aged 12-49 in the Mexican state of Morelos. "Estimates of maternal mortality related to a period of 10-12 years before the application of the census were obtained. An innovation to the original method was the calculation of a confidence interval for the estimated maternal mortality rate (MMR)....The MMR in this region was 18.68 [per] 10,000 live births....The average risk of dying due to maternal causes was 1 in 87 for women between 12 and 49 years of age. [The authors conclude that] the sisterhood method was effective for estimating maternal mortality in a small region, with no previous information about this indicator."
Correspondence: B. Hernandez, Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica, Avenida Universidad 655, Col. Santa Maria Ahuacatitlan, C.P. 62508 Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20185 Lassalle, Didier. Suicide in Northern Ireland from 1971 to 1991. [Le suicide en Irlande du Nord de 1971 a 1991.] Population, Vol. 49, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1994. 1,146-59 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
A review of trends in suicide in Northern Ireland is presented covering the period 1971-1991. The author notes that the suicide rate, which was much lower than that in the rest of the United Kingdom in 1970, has increased to about the same level in 1990, and that a parallel trend has occurred in the Republic of Ireland.
Correspondence: D. Lassalle, Universite de Paris XIII, avenue Jean-Baptiste Clement, 93430 Villetaneuse, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20186 Leinsalu, Mall. Time trends in cause-specific mortality in Estonia from 1965 to 1989. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 24, No. 1, Feb 1995. 106-13 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In order to evaluate the consequences to health and to evaluate trends in health, cause-specific mortality was studied in Estonia....The study was based on national death records from 1965 to 1989....From 1965-1969 to 1985-1989, the age-standardized mortality rate for all causes combined increased by 4.0% for males and decreased by 1.5% for females. The greatest increase was observed for ages 45-54 among males (26.3%) and for ages 55-64 among females (7.0%)....Chronic diseases, together with injuries and poisoning, remain a serious public health problem in Estonia."
Correspondence: M. Leinsalu, Institute of Experimental and Clinical Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Hiiu 42, Tallinn EE0016, Estonia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20187 Lester, David. Explaining regional differences in suicide rates. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 40, No. 5, Mar 1995. 719-21 pp. Tarrytown, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Social characteristics of the states of America in 1959-1961 predicted the suicide rate of those born in noncontiguous states and abroad, but not the suicide rates of those born in-state or in contiguous states. The results were seen as supporting the selective migration explanation of state suicide rates and as not supporting composition and local area explanations."
Correspondence: D. Lester, Center for the Study of Suicide, RR41, 5 Stonegate Court, Blackwood, NJ 08012. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

61:20188 Mackenbach, J. P.; Kunst, A. E.; Lautenbach, H.; Bijlsma, F.; Oei, Y. B. Competing causes of death: an analysis using multiple-cause-of-death data from the Netherlands. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 141, No. 5, Mar 1, 1995. 466-75 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
Data for the year 1990 on multiple causes of death in the Netherlands are analyzed to examine whether those saved from a specific cause are at the same risk of dying from other causes as the general population. "Two series of calculations were performed: one with all other coded conditions present at death and one with a selection of conditions that were eligible to become the new underlying cause of death after the present underlying cause had been eliminated. The results suggested that there are major differences between underlying causes of death in the prevalence at death of other conditions."
Correspondence: J. P. Mackenbach, Erasmus University, Department of Public Health, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20189 Manton, Kenneth G.; Singer, Burton H.; Stallard, Eric. Cancer forecasting: cohort models of disease progression and mortality. In: Forecasting the health of elderly populations, edited by Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, and Richard M. Suzman. 1993. 109-36 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"In this chapter we describe the following: 1. Biologically based cohort models of cancer initiation, progression, and mortality; 2. Their use in (a) forecasting lung and breast cancer mortality, (b) assessing the impact of breast cancer screening, and (c) estimating mesothelioma incidence; [and] 3. Effects of cross-cohort parameter restrictions in forecasts." The geographic focus is on the United States.
Correspondence: K. G. Manton, Duke University, Center for Demographic Studies, 2117 Campus Drive, Durham, NC 27708-0088. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20190 Manton, Kenneth G.; Dowd, John E.; Stallard, Eric. The effects of risk factors on male and female cardiovascular risks in middle and late age. In: Forecasting the health of elderly populations, edited by Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, and Richard M. Suzman. 1993. 137-58 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
In this chapter, the authors "examine the robustness of a multivariate model for cardiovascular disease...and total mortality and study the effect of the use of multiple data sources in its estimation in a series of simulations. We analyzed the 20-year follow-up of male and female cohorts from the U.S. Framingham heart study. There were 2,336 male and 2,873 females aged 29 to 62 years who started the study in 1950 and who were examined at 2-year intervals."
Correspondence: K. G. Manton, Duke University, Center for Demographic Studies, 2117 Campus Drive, Durham, NC 27708-0088. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20191 Miller, Peter; Loza, Sarah; Terreri, Nancy; Nagaty, Ahmed; Bayoumi, Magdi; Hisrchhorn, Norbert; Gipson, Reginald. Diarrhoea and mortality in Menoufia, Egypt. Journal for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Vol. 12, No. 3, Sep 1994. 173-81 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"From 1982 the Ministry of Health of Egypt implemented the National Control of Diarrhoeal Diseases Project (NCDDP) which attempted to improve case management of childhood diarrhoea by making oral rehydration salts (ORS) widely available and used, to improve feeding patterns during diarrhoea, and other measures. National data indicate a high level of success in achieving the targets. However, impact evaluation is hampered by weak national baseline information available prior to NCDDP on case management of diarrhoea and causes of infant and childhood mortality. A study in Menoufia Governorate in 1979-80 obtained such information. Consequently, in 1988 the area was revisited to examine subsequent changes. Findings showed marked improvement in case management of diarrhoea and rapid mortality decline, with diarrhoeal mortality apparently declining somewhat faster than mortality from other causes."
Correspondence: P. Miller, Population Council, House No. 21, Road 118, Gulshan, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20192 Morocco. Direction de la Statistique. Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Demographiques [CERED] (Rabat, Morocco). Maternal mortality levels and determinants in Morocco. [Niveaux et determinants de la mortalite maternelle au Maroc.] Dec 1994. 47 pp. Rabat, Morocco. In Fre.
This study examines maternal mortality in Morocco. It includes consideration of the sources of data available and data quality, the extent of maternal mortality and its importance as a cause of death, the percentage of women who use public- or private-sector medical services to avoid maternal death in the various regions of the country, and the ways in which social and cultural factors affect the level of maternal mortality.
Correspondence: Direction de la Statistique, Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Demographiques, B.P. 178, Rue Mohamed Belhassan, El Ouazzani-Haut Agdal, Rabat, Morocco. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20193 Ryan, Michael. Alcoholism and rising mortality in the Russian Federation. British Medical Journal, Vol. 310, No. 6980, Mar 11, 1995. 646-8 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The association between the high incidence of alcohol drinking and drunkenness and rising death rates in Russia is explored using data from official sources. The author notes that a significant reduction in alcohol-related mortality was achieved in the mid-1980s through state action to curtail supplies. However, the data show a sharp increase in consumption after 1987. There has also been a decline in state control over the quality of alcohol available for purchase. "Average expectation of life at birth has fallen especially sharply for men; by 1993 it had slumped to 59.0 years--that is, to below the age at which a pension starts to be paid."
Correspondence: M. Ryan, University of Wales, Centre of Russian and East European Studies, Swansea SA2 8PP, Wales. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20194 Scrimshaw, Susan C. M. Rapid anthropological assessment procedures (RAP): applications to the measurement of maternal and child mortality, morbidity and health care. In: Measurement of maternal and child mortality, morbidity and health care: interdisciplinary approaches, edited by J. Ties Boerma. [1994]. 109-27 pp. Ordina Editions: Liege, Belgium; International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"Rapid anthropological assessment procedures (RAP) are an adaptation of anthropological data collection techniques for the purpose of conducting relatively rapid research in order to enhance and guide programme planning and evaluation....This paper discusses the development of this adaptation of traditional anthropology, the specific methods involved, the strengths and weaknesses of the approach, the complementarity of qualitative and quantitative data, and the uses of RAP in looking at maternal and child mortality, morbidity, and health care."
Correspondence: S. C. M. Scrimshaw, University of California, School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA 90024. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20195 Seltzer, Frederic. Trend in mortality from violent deaths: unintentional injuries, United States, 1960-1991. Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 76, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1995. 19-28 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
Trends in mortality from unintentional injuries in the United States are reviewed for the period 1960-1991. The author notes that, although the death rate from accidents has declined from a peak of 85.9 per 100,000 in 1936 to 34.4 in 1993, it still remains the fifth leading cause of death, and continues to claim a large number of young lives, particularly through motor-vehicle accidents.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20196 Stecklov, Guy. Maternal mortality estimation: separating pregnancy-related and non-pregnancy-related risks. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 26, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1995. 33-8 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This report explains how to calculate separate mortality rates for women during and outside of pregnancy....In certain situations, removing the estimated non-pregnancy-related mortality from current estimates of maternal mortality may yield more accurate data. If maternal mortality calculations are to assist in the evaluation of health interventions in developing countries, the risks to both pregnant and nonpregnant women should be considered....The data used for this analysis are from the 1989 Bolivia DHS, in which some 7,923 women provided information on their 11,934 ever-married sisters."
Correspondence: G. Stecklov, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20197 Strachan, D. P.; Leon, D. A.; Dodgeon, B. Mortality from cardiovascular disease among interregional migrants in England and Wales. British Medical Journal, Vol. 310, No. 6977, Feb 18, 1995. 423-7 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The extent to which geographic variations in mortality from ischemic heart disease and stroke are influenced by factors in early life or in adulthood is analyzed. Data are from a one percent sample of residents of England and Wales from the 1971 census who were born before October 1939. "Geographical variations in mortality from cardiovascular disease in Britain may be partly determined by genetic factors, environmental exposures, or lifestyle acquired early in life, but the risk of fatal ischaemic heart disease and stroke changes on migration between areas with differing mortality."
Correspondence: D. P. Strachan, St. George's Hospital Medical School, Department of Public Health Sciences, London SW17 0RE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20198 United States. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC] (Hyattsville, Maryland). Differences in maternal mortality among black and white women--United States, 1990. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Vol. 44, No. 1, Jan 13, 1995. 6-7, 13-4 pp. Atlanta, Georgia. In Eng.
"This report summarizes race-specific differences in maternal mortality among black and white women for 1990 [in the United States] and compares these with trends in mortality from 1940-1990." It is found that "despite overall improved maternal survival during 1940-1990, black women were more than three times more likely than white women to die from complications of pregnancy, childbirth, and the puerperium."
Correspondence: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20199 Varnik, Airi; Wasserman, Danuta; Eklund, Gunnar. Suicides in the Baltic countries, 1968-90. Scandinavian Journal of Social Medicine, Vol. 22, No. 3, Sep 1994. 166-9 pp. Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
Trends in suicide in the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are analyzed over the period 1968-1990 by sex. The authors note that suicide rates were three to five times higher for men than for women during this period, and that, as throughout the USSR as a whole, suicide rates dropped sharply after 1986, the year marking the onset of turbulent social change.
Correspondence: D. Wasserman, Karolinska Hospital, Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention, Box 230, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20200 Vartiainen, Erkki; Sarti, Cinzia; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Kuulasmaa, Kari. Do changes in cardiovascular risk factors explain changes in mortality from stroke in Finland? British Medical Journal, Vol. 310, No. 6984, Apr 8, 1995. 901-4 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The authors analyzed "the extent to which changes in blood pressure, smoking, and total serum cholesterol concentration can explain the fall in mortality [in Finland] from stroke and evaluated the relative importance of each of these risk factors." The data concern 14,054 men and 14,546 women aged 30-59 randomly selected from the national population register. The authors conclude that "two thirds of the fall in mortality from stroke in men and half in women can be explained by changes in the three main cardiovascular risk factors."
Correspondence: E. Vartiainen, National Public Health Institute, Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, Mannerheimintie 166, 00300 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

61:20201 Yu, T. S.; Wong, S. L.; Lloyd, O. L.; Wong, T. W. Ischaemic heart disease: trends in mortality in Hong Kong, 1970-89. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Vol. 49, No. 1, Feb 1995. 16-21 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The authors "describe the time trends for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in Hong Kong between 1970 and 1989, and...examine these trends in relation to the risk factors for IHD....The influences of risk factors, including hypertension, diet, and smoking, on the time trends of IHD were explored. The role of improved hospital treatment of myocardial infarction on the trends of mortality from categories of IHD was also examined....The substantial and steady decline of IHD mortality seen in most western countries in the past two decades was not observed in Hong Kong...."
Correspondence: T. S. Yu, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Lek Yuen Health Centre, Department of Community and Family Medicine, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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