61:20064
Castro-Rovira, Jose. Santa Ana de Chipaya during
the nineteenth century: sources, methods, and results. [Santa Ana
de Chipaya au XIXe siecle: sources, methodes et bilan des resultats.]
Population, Vol. 49, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1994. 1,057-77 pp. Paris, France.
In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"The reconstitution of this
population of the upper Bolivian plateau is based on seven nominal
lists for the period between 1838 and 1871, and parish records of
marriages, baptisms, and burials between 1817 and 1871. Henry's method
has been used to construct family files, and the two sources have been
combined to measure the development and structure of the population as
well as its fertility and mortality. The population more than doubled
during 50 years in the middle of the nineteenth century. Fertility was
of the order of 5.6 births per woman (compared with more than 7 today).
Mortality was characterized by a life expectancy of 27 years and an
infant mortality rate of 286 per 1,000, compared with 35 years and 186
per 1,000 respectively today."
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
61:20065 Haub,
Carl. How many people have ever lived on Earth?
Population Today, Vol. 23, No. 2, Feb 1995. 4-5 pp. Washington, D.C. In
Eng.
Approximate estimates of the number of people who have ever
lived on Earth are presented together with a discussion of the
assumptions on which those estimates are based. The author suggests
that 105 billion is a reasonable figure, and that 5.5% of all people
ever born are probably alive today.
Correspondence: C.
Haub, Population Reference Bureau, 1875 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite
520, Washington, D.C. 20009-5728. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
61:20066 Booth,
Heather. The demography of Kiribati: estimates from the
1985 census. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, Vol. 9, No. 3, Sep
1994. 55-72 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
"This paper presents an
analysis of the 1985 census [of Kiribati] and compares projections made
on the basis of that analysis with the 1990 enumeration. Comparison is
made throughout with the estimates derived from [the] 1978 census."
Information is provided on population growth and structure, child and
adult mortality, marriage and first birth, and
fertility.
Correspondence: H. Booth, Australian National
University, National Centre for Development Studies, Canberra, ACT
0200, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20067 Monnier,
Alain; de Guibert-Lantoine, Catherine. The current
demographic situation: Europe and developed countries overseas.
[La conjoncture demographique: l'Europe et les pays developpes
d'Outre-Mer.] Population, Vol. 49, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1994. 1,107-28 pp.
Paris, France. In Fre.
A selection of data is presented for
developed countries around the world. The data concern natural
increase, fertility, marriage and divorce, induced abortion, and
mortality.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20068 Sommer,
Bettina. Marriages, births, and deaths, 1992.
[Eheschliessungen, Geburten und Sterbefalle 1992.] Wirtschaft und
Statistik, No. 12, Dec 1994. 971-7 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Information is presented on marriages, births, and deaths in
Germany during 1992, together with an overview of trends since 1950.
Comparisons are made between the former East and West Germany. Topics
covered include the decline in marriages, births, and deaths and the
increase in average age at marriage.
Location: Princeton
University Library (PF).
61:20069 van Hoorn,
W. D. Demographic estimates for 1994: decrease in
immigration since 1985. [Demografische ramingen voor 1994:
laagste migratiesaldo sinds 1985.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking,
Vol. 42, No. 12, Dec 1994. 6-8 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with
sum. in Eng.
"On the basis of monthly observations in the first
eight months, annual totals of births, deaths, marriages and migration
were estimated for 1994 [for the Netherlands]. The number of births is
expected to be slightly higher and the number of deaths somewhat lower
than in 1993. The difference in immigration is more important: the
inflow will be much lower than last year. Emigration will only be
slightly higher. Due to the decrease in immigration total population
growth in 1994 will be smaller than in 1993."
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20070 van Hoorn,
W. D. Ever growing regional differences in population
numbers. [Verschil tussen dichtbevolkte en "lege" provincies
groeit nog steeds.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 43, No. 2,
Feb 1995. 8-11 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"The most urbanized provinces of the Netherlands are North-Holland,
South-Holland and Utrecht. In these provinces, the population density
(number of inhabitants per square kilometer of land) is five times that
of the Northern provinces and Zeeland....According to the Regional
Population Forecasts 1994, up to 2015 all the provinces are expected to
have a positive population growth. The population of the youngest
province Flevoland will grow most rapidly: by about 50%. The
population growth, both in relative and absolute terms, will be small
in the Northern provinces and Zeeland (in the South
West)."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20071 Banens,
Maks. Forecasting subpopulations by the partial trends
method. [La prevision de sous-populations par la methode des
tendances partielles.] Population, Vol. 49, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1994.
1,130-8 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author proposes a new method
for projecting sub-populations. He illustrates its applications using
1962 data for the Languedoc-Roussillon region of France to forecast
departmental populations for 1990.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
61:20072 Bomsdorf,
Eckart. Alternative projections of the elderly population
of Germany up to the year 2050. [Alternative Modellrechungen der
alteren Bevolkerung Deutschlands bis zum Jahr 2050.] ISBN
3-89012-375-9. 1994. 119 pp. Verlag Josef Eul: Bergisch Gladbach,
Germany. In Ger.
Projections of the elderly population of Germany
are presented up to the year 2050 using three different models. The
methodology is also described, and breakdowns by age and sex are
included.
Correspondence: Josef Eul Verlag, Postfach 10 06
56, 51406 Bergisch Gladbach, Germany. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
61:20073 Bucher,
Hansjorg; Gatzweiler, Hans-Peter. Prospects for future
population trends in Germany. Part 1: facts and hypotheses.
[Perspektiven der kunftigen Bevolkerungsentwicklung in Deutschland.
Teil 1: Fakten und Hypothesen.] Informationen zur Raumentwicklung, No.
9-10, 1992. 1-4 pp. Bonn, Germany. In Ger.
This is an introduction
to a special issue of this journal, which contains 13 papers dealing
with the components of future population growth in Germany. Included
are three papers on fertility, two on mortality, five on internal
migration, and three on international migration. A later issue of this
journal will present regional population projections for the period
2000-2010.
Correspondence: H. Bucher,
Bundesforschungsanstalt fur Landeskunde und Raumordnung, Am Michaelshof
8, 5300 Bonn 2, Germany. Location: University of Pennsylvania
Library, Philadelphia, PA.
61:20074 de Beer,
J.; van Hoorn, W.; de Jong, A.; Manting, D. Population and
household forecasts, 1994. [Bevolkings- en huishoudensprognose
1994.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 43, No. 1, Jan 1995. 6-11
pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"The
Netherlands Population and Household Forecasts are updated annually by
Statistics Netherlands....In the 1994 based forecasts the median age at
marriage is expected to be one year higher than in the previous
forecasts (from 29 to 30 years for men born in 1985 and 27 to 28 years
for women born in 1985). Also, the median age at first childbirth is
expected to be a half year higher than in previous forecasts.
Furthermore, non-married cohabitation is expected to rise even faster
than in former forecasts....The increase in one-person households
during this period will be about 610 thousand and the number of couples
(with or without children) will increase by 330
thousand."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20075 Desta,
Zemicael. The population of Ethiopia, 1990-2025:
possibilities for the future. Economics Division Working Paper:
Development Issues, No. 93/3, ISBN 0-7315-1696-6. 1993. iii, 34 pp.
Australian National University, Research School of Pacific Studies,
Economics Division: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
Three future
scenarios of projected population growth in Ethiopia up to the year
2025 are modeled in this paper. The range of projections for 2025 is
from 110 to 144 million, compared with an estimated 1990 population of
49.2 million. "The consequences and policy implications of these
population projections for Ethiopia are clear: since Ethiopia is
unlikely to be able to satisfactorily maintain more than twice its
current population numbers in 35 years, a rapid decline in fertility
rates is essential. A fast fertility decline will require the adoption
and implementation of strong population programs, goals and supporting
institutional changes."
Correspondence: Bibliotech, Reply
Paid 440, ANUTECH, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20076 Ekamper,
Peter; van Imhoff, Evert. 1989-based dynamic household
scenarios for the Netherlands: sensitivity analysis of the LIPRO
household model. NIDI Rapport, No. 38, ISBN 90-70990-48-2. 1994.
60 pp. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute [NIDI]: The
Hague, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The current report documents the
compilation of a new, 1989-based set of LIPRO household scenarios that
is consistent with the official national population forecast produced
by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics (NCBS). The purpose of
the study is to perform a sensitivity analysis of the LIPRO household
projection model. The results of the current scenarios will be compared
with those of the 1985-based LIPRO scenarios, as well as with the
official 1992 NCBS household forecast. We are particularly interested
in the main sources of any potential differences between these various
household projections."
Correspondence: Netherlands
Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The
Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
61:20077 Frejka,
Tomas. Long-range global population projections: lessons
learned. In: The future population of the world. What can we
assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1994. 3-15 pp. International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria;
Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
"This chapter
provides an overview of the leading long-term population projections
that have been developed to date: their basic characteristics and an
examination of this experience to extract the lessons learned and to
attempt to formulate some general principles on what makes long-range
projections interesting and useful and what kinds of circumstances
justify the creation of a new set of
projections."
Correspondence: T. Frejka, UN Economic
Commission for Europe, Palais des Nations, 2322 Geneva 10, Switzerland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20078 George, M.
V.; Norris, M. J.; Nault, F.; Loh, S.; Dai, S. Y.
Population projections for Canada, provinces and territories,
1993-2016. [Projections demographiques pour le Canada, les
provinces et les territoires, 1993-2016.] Pub. Order No. 91-520. ISBN
0-660-58916-8. Dec 1994. xv, 195 pp. Statistics Canada, Demography
Division, Population Projections Section: Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
"This report contains a range of population projections [for
Canada], describes the methodology and assumptions, and provides a
brief analysis of the results. The projections...use 1993 preliminary
population estimates adjusted for net census undercoverage as their
base. They also include two new components: non-permanent residents,
and returning Canadians. Moreover, they take into account emerging
demographic trends, primarily based on recent changes in the components
of population growth."
Correspondence: Statistics Canada,
Demography Division, Population Projections Section, Ottawa, Ontario
K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20079 Goldstein,
Joshua R.; Lutz, Wolfgang; Pflug, Georg. Estimating the
uncertainty in population projections by resampling methods. IIASA
Working Paper, No. WP-94-106, Oct 1994. iii, 23 pp. International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In
Eng.
"This paper proposes a new approach to introducing
quantitatively measured uncertainty into population projections. It is
to a lesser degree based on past time-series than other approaches,
since it uses random walk models for migration, mortality and
fertility, for which upper and lower bounds are defined. No parametric
distribution is fitted to the observations, but the random walk is
resampled from the past data." The method is used to project
population size and characteristics for Austria, Mauritius, and the
United States up to the year 2050.
Correspondence:
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1,
2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
61:20080 Hirosima,
Kiyosi; Mita, Fusami. Natural increase and net migration
in population projections by prefecture: 1990-2010. Jinko Mondai
Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 49, No. 4, Jan 1994. 34-42
pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
This study examines the relative
contribution of natural increase and migration to population
projections for the prefectures of Japan up to the year
2010.
Correspondence: K. Hirosima, Institute of Population
Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki,
Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
61:20081 Kotowska,
Irena E. Population dynamics in Poland, 1950-2050:
internal migration and marital status changes. IIASA Working
Paper, No. WP-94-74, Aug 1994. xi, 25 pp. International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"This
paper reports the findings of the Polish case study in which population
projections by age, marital status and region of residence have been
calculated by use of the LIPRO model....Several assumptions regarding
the components of population dynamics were formulated. In the
scenarios, special attention was given to internal migration and its
possible influences on population composition (age and marital status)
and population dynamics (births, deaths, marriages and
divorces)."
Correspondence: International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20082 Kranczer,
Stanley. Outlook for U.S. population growth.
Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 75, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1994. 19-26 pp. New York,
New York. In Eng.
The author discusses population projections for
the United States to the year 2020. Information is provided on changes
in racial composition and among racial groups, age differentials,
regional and state variations, and state changes by age
group.
Correspondence: S. Kranczer, Metropolitan Life
Insurance Company, One Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10010.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20083 Lutz,
Wolfgang; Goldstein, Joshua R.; Prinz, Christopher.
Alternative approaches to population projection. In: The
future population of the world. What can we assume today? edited by
Wolfgang Lutz. 1994. 17-50 pp. International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications:
London, England. In Eng.
"This chapter on alternative approaches to
population projection gives a broad and nontechnical exposition of some
fundamental questions involved in population projection....We have
considered who wants projections and for what reasons, what should be
the time horizon and spatial resolution, what output parameters are
expected, and what are the alternative approaches to address the issue
of uncertainty in population projections."
Correspondence:
W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
61:20084 Lutz,
Wolfgang; Prinz, Christopher; Langgassner, Jeannette.
Special world population scenarios to 2100. In: The future
population of the world. What can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang
Lutz. 1994. 423-41 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London,
England. In Eng.
In this chapter, the authors extend global
population projections that were made up to the year 2030, taking them
through the year 2100. "One set of scenarios attempts to define
plausible long-term extensions for all 12 world regions. A major
assumption in the scenario design is that of a reasonable course of
demographic transition, linking fertility and mortality. Three
scenarios are specified for each region; parameter assumptions are made
for the whole projection period. Another set of scenarios mainly serves
to illustrate certain features of population dynamics. A number of
possible interactions between demographic components and feedbacks from
population size/density and aging on fertility and mortality are
included. Only selected regions are considered."
For a related
study by the same authors published in the same volume, see elsewhere
in this issue.
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg,
Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20085 Lutz,
Wolfgang. The future population of the world. What can we
assume today? ISBN 1-85383-239-1. 1994. xx, 484 pp. International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria;
Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
This collective
work "provides a thorough analysis of the components of population
change--fertility, mortality and migration--and translates these
factors into a series of projections for the population of 12 world
regions. The projections...are the first to explicitly take into
account possible environmental limits to population growth, and to
consider a range of other germane factors, such as the impact of AIDS.
These new, alternative scenarios differ significantly from those
already available from the UN and the World Bank...."
Selected items
will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population
Index.
Correspondence: Earthscan Publications, 120
Pentonville Road, London N1 9JN, England. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
61:20086 Lutz,
Wolfgang; Prinz, Christopher; Langgassner, Jeannette. The
IIASA world population scenarios to 2030. In: The future
population of the world. What can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang
Lutz. 1994. 391-422 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London,
England. In Eng.
Global population projections are presented up to
the year 2030 based on information presented in 14 papers published in
the same volume as the present study. Eight alternative scenarios are
included, based on high and low estimates of fertility, mortality, and
migration, including a scenario resulting from the averaging of the
high and low assumptions of the three components. Comparisons are made
with UN and World Bank projections.
For a related study by the same
authors, published in the same volume, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20087 Manton,
Kenneth G.; Stallard, Eric; Liu, Korbin. Frailty and
forecasts of active life expectancy in the United States. In:
Forecasting the health of elderly populations, edited by Kenneth G.
Manton, Burton H. Singer, and Richard M. Suzman. 1993. 159-81 pp.
Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
The
authors present a model to forecast multidimensional changes in active
life expectancy that takes into account different levels of disability.
The model is applied to U.S. data from the National Long Term Care
Survey for 1982 and 1984. Projections are made for males and females
up to the year 2020.
Correspondence: K. G. Manton, Duke
University, Center for Demographic Studies, 2117 Campus Drive, Durham,
NC 27708-0088. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20088 Munz,
Rainer; Ulrich, Ralf. Demographic trends in eastern
Germany and in selected regions: analysis and forecast up to 2010.
[Demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland und in ausgewahlten
Regionen: Analyse und Prognose bis 2010.] Zeitschrift fur
Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 19, No. 4, 1993-1994. 475-515 pp.
Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"This study
examines the prospects for future population development in East
Germany and 8 selected regions...until the year 2010....The results of
the projections indicate a further population decline in East Germany
as a whole by about 20 percent for the period 1990 to 2010. In some
regions the decline will be even steeper, while in others migration
gains might compensate birth losses....In all regions there will be a
steep decline of the young population, in some regions by up to 70
percent. On the other hand the population over 60 will increase
everywhere....[The] negative consequences will create an additional
burden for the economic and social prospects of some regions in the
long run."
Correspondence: R. Munz, Humboldt-Universitat,
Philosophische Fakultat III, Lehrstuhl Bevolkerungswissenschaft, 10099
Berlin, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20089 Oe,
Moriyuki. The method for projecting households by family
type in terms of headship cohort change--Part 2. Projecting marital
status and headship rates by family type in household formation
stage. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol.
49, No. 4, Jan 1994. 1-22 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
"This article is Part 2 of the study on the method for projecting
households [in Japan] by family type....Part 1 was on modelling the
transition process among different family types of households headed by
[persons] over 35 years old, and on the method for projecting
households by family type using the transition model....Part 2 focuses
on the method for projecting households in the formation stage headed
by [those] under 34 years old....Among projection outcomes, the
proportion never married of males aged 30-34 goes up from 32.8 per cent
to 37.3 per cent between 1990 and 2010, and the proportion never
married of females aged 25-29 from 40.4 per cent to 47.1 per cent.
[The] tendency of late marriage will continue to the beginning of the
twenty-first century."
For Part 1 by Kiyosi Hirosama et al., also
published in 1994, see 60:20077.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
61:20090
Pardthaisong, Tieng. A critical period in the
evolution of the population of Thailand. Journal of Population and
Social Studies, Vol. 4, No. 1-2, Jul-Jan 1992-1993. 51-78, 126-7 pp.
Nakhon Pathom, Thailand. In Tha. with sum. in Eng.
"The paper,
based on population projections for Thailand...examines the growth and
the structure of the Thai population between 1990 and 2115. The
projections are prepared on the basis of the sex and age distribution
of the 1990 population....The study concludes that in order to
maintain...economic and social prosperity, security and [prevent] the
eradication of the Thai race, the government will have to raise
fertility of the population at least up to the replacement
level."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20091 Poursin,
Jean-Marie. Some recent surprises in global
demography. [Les fausses surprises de la demographie mondiale.]
Futuribles, No. 183, Jan 1994. 19-31 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The
author points out that, despite the fact that the inherent inertia in
demographic phenomena should facilitate the preparation of accurate
population projections, several recently identified trends have come as
a surprise to many demographers. These trends include the recent
Nigerian census indicating that the population is much smaller than had
been estimated, increases in U.S. projections for the year 2050, and
the Chinese paradox involving a rapid decline in fertility as the
population continues to grow too fast. The implications of these
surprises for future projections are assessed.
Location:
Princeton University Library (FST).
61:20092 Prinz,
Christopher; Lutz, Wolfgang. Alternative demographic
scenarios for 20 large member states of the Council of Europe,
1990-2050. IIASA Research Report, No. RR-94-3, Feb 1994. v, 64 pp.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]:
Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
This report, originally published as a
chapter in the 1993 Council of Europe publication entitled The Future
of Europe's Population: A Scenario Approach, is reprinted here,
together with an additional appendix providing data on projections for
individual countries.
For the work referred to, edited by Robert
Cliquet, see 60:40104.
Correspondence: International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg,
Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20093 Schulz,
Erika. Effects of increased migration on regional
population trends in Germany. Forecasts up to the year 2000.
[Auswirkung verstarkter Wanderungen auf die regionale
Bevolkerungsentwicklung Deutschlands. Prognosen bis zum Jahr 2000.]
Demographie Aktuell, No. 1, 1993. 21, [8] pp. Humboldt-Universitat zu
Berlin, Philosophische Fakultat III, Institut fur Soziologie, Lehrstuhl
Bevolkerungswissenschaft: Berlin, Germany. In Ger.
Regional
population projections for Germany are presented up to the year 2000
using two different migration scenarios. Consideration is given to
international migration of foreigners and ethnic Germans, migration
from East to West Germany, and internal
migration.
Correspondence: Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin,
Philosophische Fakultat III, Institut fur Soziologie, Lehrstuhl
Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20094 Simon,
Marc. Population projections for the French regions,
1990-2020. [Projections de population des regions francaises:
horizon 1990-2020.] INSEE Resultats: Demographie-Societe, No.
39-40-41, ISBN 2-11-066237-9. Jan 1995. 439 pp. Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Population projections are presented for France and its regions up
to the year 2020. Part 1 concerns metropolitan France, and begins with
a description of the methodology used in making the projections. The
detailed projections are then given by region and department, and
include information on population by sex and age at selected years
according to four alternative scenarios concerning fertility,
mortality, and migration. Part 2 presents similar information for the
overseas departments of Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, and
Reunion.
Correspondence: Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard,
75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
61:20095 Smith,
Stanley K.; Shahidullah, Mohammed. An evaluation of
population projection errors for census tracts. JASA: Journal of
the American Statistical Association, Vol. 90, No. 429, Mar 1995. 64-71
pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"In this article we evaluate the
accuracy and bias of projections of total population and population by
age group for census tracts in three counties in Florida. We use [U.S.
census] data from 1970 and 1980 and several simple extrapolation
techniques to produce projections for 1990; we then compare these
projections with 1990 census counts and evaluate the differences. For
the total sample, we find mean absolute errors of 17%-20% for the three
most accurate techniques for projecting total population and find no
indication of overall bias. For individual age groups, mean absolute
errors range from 20%-29%."
This is a revised version of a paper
presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of
America.
Correspondence: S. K. Smith, University of
Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 221 Matherly Hall,
Gainesville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library
(SM).
61:20096 Stycos, J.
Mayone. Population, projections, and policy: a cautionary
perspective. Population and Environment, Vol. 16, No. 3, Jan 1995.
205-19 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Population projections
depend on censuses, vital statistics and sample surveys, all of which
have deficiencies that are most marked in the less developed countries
(LDCs)....The United Nations typically prepares 'high,' 'medium' and
'low' projections. Even the high projection contains optimistic
assumptions about fertility decline, while assumptions of constant or
increasing fertility receive no serious attention. The paper suggests
that high and constant fertility projections should receive more
attention from policy makers, with medium estimates treated more as
targets achievable only through considerable programmatic effort. At
the same time, economic and social plans should be laid for dealing
with the population sizes implied by the 'high'
variants."
Correspondence: J. M. Stycos, Cornell
University, Department of Rural Sociology, 134 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY
14853-7801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20097 Swanson,
David A.; Tayman, Jeff; Beck, Don. On the utility of
lagged ratio-correlation as a short-term county population projection
method: a case study of Washington State. Journal of Economic and
Social Measurement, Vol. 21, No. 1, 1995. 1-16 pp. Amsterdam,
Netherlands. In Eng.
The utility of a new, short-term method of
projecting future population at the county level is evaluated and
compared with two alternative methods, exponential extrapolation and
the cohort-component method, using data for Washington State for 1970,
1980, and 1990. "The evaluation suggests that the lagged
ratio-correlation method consistently has a high level of utility for
all three timepoints. It achieves reductions in error that are
comparable to those achieved by the Cohort-Component Method, yet with
much less resource requirements. The exponential extrapolation method
is found to have high and moderate utility in two of the three
timepoints."
Correspondence: D. A. Swanson, University of
Arkansas, Arkansas Institute for Economic Advancement, 2801 South
University, Little Rock, AR 72204-1099. Location: Princeton
University Library (SF).
61:20098 United
Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago,
Chile). Latin America: population projection,
1950-2050. [America Latina: proyecciones de poblacion,
1950-2050.] Boletin Demografico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 27, No. 54,
Jun 1994. 198 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
In this
publication, "the population projections for the 20 Latin American
countries, period 1950-2050, are published. As usual...the projections
are presented by sex and age groups, including a set of implicit
demographic indicators." Data are from censuses and other official
sources.
Correspondence: UN Centro Latinoamericano de
Demografia, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla
91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
61:20099 United
Nations. Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy
Analysis (New York, New York). Population and development
projection methods for microcomputers: a user's guide. No.
ST/ESA/SER.R/123, 1993. ix, 66 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
This
volume was developed by the UN Population Division as a supplement to
its manual on projection methods for integrating population variables
into development planning. It first gives a brief overview of the
Population and Development Projection Methods for Personal or
Microcomputer (PDPM/PC), and then gives the steps to follow in making
projections, dealing with any problems that may arise, and accessing
the results of those projections.
For the manual referred to, see
55:40094, 56:20102, and 59:20084.
Correspondence: UN
Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis,
Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20100 Jelonek,
Adam. Natural movement of population in Poland in the
1948-1988 period. [Ruch naturalny ludnosci w Polsce w latach
1948-1988.] Zeszyty Naukowe, Uniwersytetu Jagiellonskiego, Prace
Geograficzne, No. 92, ISBN 83-233-0567-6. 1992. 176 pp. Uniwersytet
Jagiellonski: Krakow, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng.
Detailed
data on vital statistics are presented for each year from 1948 to 1988.
They concern total population, marriages, births, deaths, infant
deaths, and natural increase, as well as the equivalent rates. The data
are presented separately for Poland and the 49 voivodships, and for
urban and rural populations by voivodship. The methodology used to
prepare these estimates, which takes into account changes in
administrative divisions during this period, is
explained.
Correspondence: Uniwersytet Jagiellonski,
Golebia 24, 31-007 Krakow, Poland. Location: University of
Pennsylvania Library, Philadelphia, PA.
61:20101 Mitra, R.
G. Analysis of population growth in Mizoram.
Demography India, Vol. 22, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1993. 65-75 pp. Delhi, India.
In Eng.
"This paper seeks to find plausible reasons for...unusual
fluctuations in the rates of growth of population of Mizoram [India]
during the last three decades....It first examines in detail the real
growth in population separately for the decades 1961-71 and
1971-81....The paper then attempts to find the likely rates of growth
of population for the decades between 1961 and 1981. The 1981-91
growth of population of Mizoram is also briefly discussed in light of
the changed values of the decadal growth as estimated for the previous
two decades."
Correspondence: R. G. Mitra, Office of the
Registrar General, Vital Statistics Division, Ministry of Home Affairs,
West Block-I, R. K. Puram, New Delhi 110 066, India. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:20102 Morrill,
Richard L. Aging in place, age specific migration and
natural decrease. Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 29, No. 1,
1995. 41-66 pp. Secaucus, New Jersey/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"This
analysis of regional demographic change evaluates the roles of 'aging
in place' and of age-specific migration on the geographic pattern of
the advent of natural decrease in the United States. The spread of
natural decrease is projected on the basis of recent births and deaths,
in the absence of migration. Age-specific migration data for Oregon
and Washington are used to develop a typology of counties that can be
used in turn to modify the probable timing of natural
decrease."
Correspondence: R. L. Morrill, University of
Washington, Department of Geography, Seattle, WA 98195.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
61:20103 Pilar,
Ortiz M.; Alban, Estuardo; Zumarraga, Magnolia; Mora, Mariana; Sanchez,
Plutarco; Lopez, Marco; Baez, Ximena. Guayaquil, Quito,
and the rest of the country: a comparative socio-demographic
study. [Guayaquil, Quito y resto del pais: un estudio
socio-demografico comparativo.] Jul 1994. 75, [32] pp. Instituto
Nacional de Estadistica y Censos [INEC]: Quito, Ecuador. In Spa.
The authors outline the principal features of demographic change in
Guayaquil, Quito, and the rest of Ecuador during the period 1982-1990.
Separate sections focus on population and housing. The chapter on
population presents data on general population characteristics, aspects
of fertility and infant mortality, migration, education, and economic
characteristics of the population. Data are from the 1990 census of
population and housing.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional
de Estadistica y Censos, Avenida 10 de Agosto 229, Edificio San Luis,
Quito, Ecuador. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
