Volume 61 - Number 2 - Summer 1995

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

61:20064 Castro-Rovira, Jose. Santa Ana de Chipaya during the nineteenth century: sources, methods, and results. [Santa Ana de Chipaya au XIXe siecle: sources, methodes et bilan des resultats.] Population, Vol. 49, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1994. 1,057-77 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"The reconstitution of this population of the upper Bolivian plateau is based on seven nominal lists for the period between 1838 and 1871, and parish records of marriages, baptisms, and burials between 1817 and 1871. Henry's method has been used to construct family files, and the two sources have been combined to measure the development and structure of the population as well as its fertility and mortality. The population more than doubled during 50 years in the middle of the nineteenth century. Fertility was of the order of 5.6 births per woman (compared with more than 7 today). Mortality was characterized by a life expectancy of 27 years and an infant mortality rate of 286 per 1,000, compared with 35 years and 186 per 1,000 respectively today."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20065 Haub, Carl. How many people have ever lived on Earth? Population Today, Vol. 23, No. 2, Feb 1995. 4-5 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Approximate estimates of the number of people who have ever lived on Earth are presented together with a discussion of the assumptions on which those estimates are based. The author suggests that 105 billion is a reasonable figure, and that 5.5% of all people ever born are probably alive today.
Correspondence: C. Haub, Population Reference Bureau, 1875 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009-5728. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

61:20066 Booth, Heather. The demography of Kiribati: estimates from the 1985 census. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, Vol. 9, No. 3, Sep 1994. 55-72 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
"This paper presents an analysis of the 1985 census [of Kiribati] and compares projections made on the basis of that analysis with the 1990 enumeration. Comparison is made throughout with the estimates derived from [the] 1978 census." Information is provided on population growth and structure, child and adult mortality, marriage and first birth, and fertility.
Correspondence: H. Booth, Australian National University, National Centre for Development Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20067 Monnier, Alain; de Guibert-Lantoine, Catherine. The current demographic situation: Europe and developed countries overseas. [La conjoncture demographique: l'Europe et les pays developpes d'Outre-Mer.] Population, Vol. 49, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1994. 1,107-28 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
A selection of data is presented for developed countries around the world. The data concern natural increase, fertility, marriage and divorce, induced abortion, and mortality.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20068 Sommer, Bettina. Marriages, births, and deaths, 1992. [Eheschliessungen, Geburten und Sterbefalle 1992.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 12, Dec 1994. 971-7 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Information is presented on marriages, births, and deaths in Germany during 1992, together with an overview of trends since 1950. Comparisons are made between the former East and West Germany. Topics covered include the decline in marriages, births, and deaths and the increase in average age at marriage.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

61:20069 van Hoorn, W. D. Demographic estimates for 1994: decrease in immigration since 1985. [Demografische ramingen voor 1994: laagste migratiesaldo sinds 1985.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 42, No. 12, Dec 1994. 6-8 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"On the basis of monthly observations in the first eight months, annual totals of births, deaths, marriages and migration were estimated for 1994 [for the Netherlands]. The number of births is expected to be slightly higher and the number of deaths somewhat lower than in 1993. The difference in immigration is more important: the inflow will be much lower than last year. Emigration will only be slightly higher. Due to the decrease in immigration total population growth in 1994 will be smaller than in 1993."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20070 van Hoorn, W. D. Ever growing regional differences in population numbers. [Verschil tussen dichtbevolkte en "lege" provincies groeit nog steeds.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 43, No. 2, Feb 1995. 8-11 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"The most urbanized provinces of the Netherlands are North-Holland, South-Holland and Utrecht. In these provinces, the population density (number of inhabitants per square kilometer of land) is five times that of the Northern provinces and Zeeland....According to the Regional Population Forecasts 1994, up to 2015 all the provinces are expected to have a positive population growth. The population of the youngest province Flevoland will grow most rapidly: by about 50%. The population growth, both in relative and absolute terms, will be small in the Northern provinces and Zeeland (in the South West)."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

61:20071 Banens, Maks. Forecasting subpopulations by the partial trends method. [La prevision de sous-populations par la methode des tendances partielles.] Population, Vol. 49, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1994. 1,130-8 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author proposes a new method for projecting sub-populations. He illustrates its applications using 1962 data for the Languedoc-Roussillon region of France to forecast departmental populations for 1990.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20072 Bomsdorf, Eckart. Alternative projections of the elderly population of Germany up to the year 2050. [Alternative Modellrechungen der alteren Bevolkerung Deutschlands bis zum Jahr 2050.] ISBN 3-89012-375-9. 1994. 119 pp. Verlag Josef Eul: Bergisch Gladbach, Germany. In Ger.
Projections of the elderly population of Germany are presented up to the year 2050 using three different models. The methodology is also described, and breakdowns by age and sex are included.
Correspondence: Josef Eul Verlag, Postfach 10 06 56, 51406 Bergisch Gladbach, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20073 Bucher, Hansjorg; Gatzweiler, Hans-Peter. Prospects for future population trends in Germany. Part 1: facts and hypotheses. [Perspektiven der kunftigen Bevolkerungsentwicklung in Deutschland. Teil 1: Fakten und Hypothesen.] Informationen zur Raumentwicklung, No. 9-10, 1992. 1-4 pp. Bonn, Germany. In Ger.
This is an introduction to a special issue of this journal, which contains 13 papers dealing with the components of future population growth in Germany. Included are three papers on fertility, two on mortality, five on internal migration, and three on international migration. A later issue of this journal will present regional population projections for the period 2000-2010.
Correspondence: H. Bucher, Bundesforschungsanstalt fur Landeskunde und Raumordnung, Am Michaelshof 8, 5300 Bonn 2, Germany. Location: University of Pennsylvania Library, Philadelphia, PA.

61:20074 de Beer, J.; van Hoorn, W.; de Jong, A.; Manting, D. Population and household forecasts, 1994. [Bevolkings- en huishoudensprognose 1994.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 43, No. 1, Jan 1995. 6-11 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"The Netherlands Population and Household Forecasts are updated annually by Statistics Netherlands....In the 1994 based forecasts the median age at marriage is expected to be one year higher than in the previous forecasts (from 29 to 30 years for men born in 1985 and 27 to 28 years for women born in 1985). Also, the median age at first childbirth is expected to be a half year higher than in previous forecasts. Furthermore, non-married cohabitation is expected to rise even faster than in former forecasts....The increase in one-person households during this period will be about 610 thousand and the number of couples (with or without children) will increase by 330 thousand."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20075 Desta, Zemicael. The population of Ethiopia, 1990-2025: possibilities for the future. Economics Division Working Paper: Development Issues, No. 93/3, ISBN 0-7315-1696-6. 1993. iii, 34 pp. Australian National University, Research School of Pacific Studies, Economics Division: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
Three future scenarios of projected population growth in Ethiopia up to the year 2025 are modeled in this paper. The range of projections for 2025 is from 110 to 144 million, compared with an estimated 1990 population of 49.2 million. "The consequences and policy implications of these population projections for Ethiopia are clear: since Ethiopia is unlikely to be able to satisfactorily maintain more than twice its current population numbers in 35 years, a rapid decline in fertility rates is essential. A fast fertility decline will require the adoption and implementation of strong population programs, goals and supporting institutional changes."
Correspondence: Bibliotech, Reply Paid 440, ANUTECH, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20076 Ekamper, Peter; van Imhoff, Evert. 1989-based dynamic household scenarios for the Netherlands: sensitivity analysis of the LIPRO household model. NIDI Rapport, No. 38, ISBN 90-70990-48-2. 1994. 60 pp. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute [NIDI]: The Hague, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The current report documents the compilation of a new, 1989-based set of LIPRO household scenarios that is consistent with the official national population forecast produced by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics (NCBS). The purpose of the study is to perform a sensitivity analysis of the LIPRO household projection model. The results of the current scenarios will be compared with those of the 1985-based LIPRO scenarios, as well as with the official 1992 NCBS household forecast. We are particularly interested in the main sources of any potential differences between these various household projections."
Correspondence: Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20077 Frejka, Tomas. Long-range global population projections: lessons learned. In: The future population of the world. What can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1994. 3-15 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
"This chapter provides an overview of the leading long-term population projections that have been developed to date: their basic characteristics and an examination of this experience to extract the lessons learned and to attempt to formulate some general principles on what makes long-range projections interesting and useful and what kinds of circumstances justify the creation of a new set of projections."
Correspondence: T. Frejka, UN Economic Commission for Europe, Palais des Nations, 2322 Geneva 10, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20078 George, M. V.; Norris, M. J.; Nault, F.; Loh, S.; Dai, S. Y. Population projections for Canada, provinces and territories, 1993-2016. [Projections demographiques pour le Canada, les provinces et les territoires, 1993-2016.] Pub. Order No. 91-520. ISBN 0-660-58916-8. Dec 1994. xv, 195 pp. Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Population Projections Section: Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
"This report contains a range of population projections [for Canada], describes the methodology and assumptions, and provides a brief analysis of the results. The projections...use 1993 preliminary population estimates adjusted for net census undercoverage as their base. They also include two new components: non-permanent residents, and returning Canadians. Moreover, they take into account emerging demographic trends, primarily based on recent changes in the components of population growth."
Correspondence: Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Population Projections Section, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20079 Goldstein, Joshua R.; Lutz, Wolfgang; Pflug, Georg. Estimating the uncertainty in population projections by resampling methods. IIASA Working Paper, No. WP-94-106, Oct 1994. iii, 23 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"This paper proposes a new approach to introducing quantitatively measured uncertainty into population projections. It is to a lesser degree based on past time-series than other approaches, since it uses random walk models for migration, mortality and fertility, for which upper and lower bounds are defined. No parametric distribution is fitted to the observations, but the random walk is resampled from the past data." The method is used to project population size and characteristics for Austria, Mauritius, and the United States up to the year 2050.
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20080 Hirosima, Kiyosi; Mita, Fusami. Natural increase and net migration in population projections by prefecture: 1990-2010. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 49, No. 4, Jan 1994. 34-42 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
This study examines the relative contribution of natural increase and migration to population projections for the prefectures of Japan up to the year 2010.
Correspondence: K. Hirosima, Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20081 Kotowska, Irena E. Population dynamics in Poland, 1950-2050: internal migration and marital status changes. IIASA Working Paper, No. WP-94-74, Aug 1994. xi, 25 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"This paper reports the findings of the Polish case study in which population projections by age, marital status and region of residence have been calculated by use of the LIPRO model....Several assumptions regarding the components of population dynamics were formulated. In the scenarios, special attention was given to internal migration and its possible influences on population composition (age and marital status) and population dynamics (births, deaths, marriages and divorces)."
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20082 Kranczer, Stanley. Outlook for U.S. population growth. Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 75, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1994. 19-26 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author discusses population projections for the United States to the year 2020. Information is provided on changes in racial composition and among racial groups, age differentials, regional and state variations, and state changes by age group.
Correspondence: S. Kranczer, Metropolitan Life Insurance Company, One Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20083 Lutz, Wolfgang; Goldstein, Joshua R.; Prinz, Christopher. Alternative approaches to population projection. In: The future population of the world. What can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1994. 17-50 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
"This chapter on alternative approaches to population projection gives a broad and nontechnical exposition of some fundamental questions involved in population projection....We have considered who wants projections and for what reasons, what should be the time horizon and spatial resolution, what output parameters are expected, and what are the alternative approaches to address the issue of uncertainty in population projections."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20084 Lutz, Wolfgang; Prinz, Christopher; Langgassner, Jeannette. Special world population scenarios to 2100. In: The future population of the world. What can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1994. 423-41 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
In this chapter, the authors extend global population projections that were made up to the year 2030, taking them through the year 2100. "One set of scenarios attempts to define plausible long-term extensions for all 12 world regions. A major assumption in the scenario design is that of a reasonable course of demographic transition, linking fertility and mortality. Three scenarios are specified for each region; parameter assumptions are made for the whole projection period. Another set of scenarios mainly serves to illustrate certain features of population dynamics. A number of possible interactions between demographic components and feedbacks from population size/density and aging on fertility and mortality are included. Only selected regions are considered."
For a related study by the same authors published in the same volume, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20085 Lutz, Wolfgang. The future population of the world. What can we assume today? ISBN 1-85383-239-1. 1994. xx, 484 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
This collective work "provides a thorough analysis of the components of population change--fertility, mortality and migration--and translates these factors into a series of projections for the population of 12 world regions. The projections...are the first to explicitly take into account possible environmental limits to population growth, and to consider a range of other germane factors, such as the impact of AIDS. These new, alternative scenarios differ significantly from those already available from the UN and the World Bank...."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Earthscan Publications, 120 Pentonville Road, London N1 9JN, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20086 Lutz, Wolfgang; Prinz, Christopher; Langgassner, Jeannette. The IIASA world population scenarios to 2030. In: The future population of the world. What can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1994. 391-422 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
Global population projections are presented up to the year 2030 based on information presented in 14 papers published in the same volume as the present study. Eight alternative scenarios are included, based on high and low estimates of fertility, mortality, and migration, including a scenario resulting from the averaging of the high and low assumptions of the three components. Comparisons are made with UN and World Bank projections.
For a related study by the same authors, published in the same volume, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20087 Manton, Kenneth G.; Stallard, Eric; Liu, Korbin. Frailty and forecasts of active life expectancy in the United States. In: Forecasting the health of elderly populations, edited by Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, and Richard M. Suzman. 1993. 159-81 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
The authors present a model to forecast multidimensional changes in active life expectancy that takes into account different levels of disability. The model is applied to U.S. data from the National Long Term Care Survey for 1982 and 1984. Projections are made for males and females up to the year 2020.
Correspondence: K. G. Manton, Duke University, Center for Demographic Studies, 2117 Campus Drive, Durham, NC 27708-0088. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20088 Munz, Rainer; Ulrich, Ralf. Demographic trends in eastern Germany and in selected regions: analysis and forecast up to 2010. [Demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland und in ausgewahlten Regionen: Analyse und Prognose bis 2010.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 19, No. 4, 1993-1994. 475-515 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"This study examines the prospects for future population development in East Germany and 8 selected regions...until the year 2010....The results of the projections indicate a further population decline in East Germany as a whole by about 20 percent for the period 1990 to 2010. In some regions the decline will be even steeper, while in others migration gains might compensate birth losses....In all regions there will be a steep decline of the young population, in some regions by up to 70 percent. On the other hand the population over 60 will increase everywhere....[The] negative consequences will create an additional burden for the economic and social prospects of some regions in the long run."
Correspondence: R. Munz, Humboldt-Universitat, Philosophische Fakultat III, Lehrstuhl Bevolkerungswissenschaft, 10099 Berlin, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20089 Oe, Moriyuki. The method for projecting households by family type in terms of headship cohort change--Part 2. Projecting marital status and headship rates by family type in household formation stage. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 49, No. 4, Jan 1994. 1-22 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
"This article is Part 2 of the study on the method for projecting households [in Japan] by family type....Part 1 was on modelling the transition process among different family types of households headed by [persons] over 35 years old, and on the method for projecting households by family type using the transition model....Part 2 focuses on the method for projecting households in the formation stage headed by [those] under 34 years old....Among projection outcomes, the proportion never married of males aged 30-34 goes up from 32.8 per cent to 37.3 per cent between 1990 and 2010, and the proportion never married of females aged 25-29 from 40.4 per cent to 47.1 per cent. [The] tendency of late marriage will continue to the beginning of the twenty-first century."
For Part 1 by Kiyosi Hirosama et al., also published in 1994, see 60:20077.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20090 Pardthaisong, Tieng. A critical period in the evolution of the population of Thailand. Journal of Population and Social Studies, Vol. 4, No. 1-2, Jul-Jan 1992-1993. 51-78, 126-7 pp. Nakhon Pathom, Thailand. In Tha. with sum. in Eng.
"The paper, based on population projections for Thailand...examines the growth and the structure of the Thai population between 1990 and 2115. The projections are prepared on the basis of the sex and age distribution of the 1990 population....The study concludes that in order to maintain...economic and social prosperity, security and [prevent] the eradication of the Thai race, the government will have to raise fertility of the population at least up to the replacement level."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20091 Poursin, Jean-Marie. Some recent surprises in global demography. [Les fausses surprises de la demographie mondiale.] Futuribles, No. 183, Jan 1994. 19-31 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author points out that, despite the fact that the inherent inertia in demographic phenomena should facilitate the preparation of accurate population projections, several recently identified trends have come as a surprise to many demographers. These trends include the recent Nigerian census indicating that the population is much smaller than had been estimated, increases in U.S. projections for the year 2050, and the Chinese paradox involving a rapid decline in fertility as the population continues to grow too fast. The implications of these surprises for future projections are assessed.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

61:20092 Prinz, Christopher; Lutz, Wolfgang. Alternative demographic scenarios for 20 large member states of the Council of Europe, 1990-2050. IIASA Research Report, No. RR-94-3, Feb 1994. v, 64 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
This report, originally published as a chapter in the 1993 Council of Europe publication entitled The Future of Europe's Population: A Scenario Approach, is reprinted here, together with an additional appendix providing data on projections for individual countries.
For the work referred to, edited by Robert Cliquet, see 60:40104.
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20093 Schulz, Erika. Effects of increased migration on regional population trends in Germany. Forecasts up to the year 2000. [Auswirkung verstarkter Wanderungen auf die regionale Bevolkerungsentwicklung Deutschlands. Prognosen bis zum Jahr 2000.] Demographie Aktuell, No. 1, 1993. 21, [8] pp. Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin, Philosophische Fakultat III, Institut fur Soziologie, Lehrstuhl Bevolkerungswissenschaft: Berlin, Germany. In Ger.
Regional population projections for Germany are presented up to the year 2000 using two different migration scenarios. Consideration is given to international migration of foreigners and ethnic Germans, migration from East to West Germany, and internal migration.
Correspondence: Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin, Philosophische Fakultat III, Institut fur Soziologie, Lehrstuhl Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20094 Simon, Marc. Population projections for the French regions, 1990-2020. [Projections de population des regions francaises: horizon 1990-2020.] INSEE Resultats: Demographie-Societe, No. 39-40-41, ISBN 2-11-066237-9. Jan 1995. 439 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Population projections are presented for France and its regions up to the year 2020. Part 1 concerns metropolitan France, and begins with a description of the methodology used in making the projections. The detailed projections are then given by region and department, and include information on population by sex and age at selected years according to four alternative scenarios concerning fertility, mortality, and migration. Part 2 presents similar information for the overseas departments of Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, and Reunion.
Correspondence: Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20095 Smith, Stanley K.; Shahidullah, Mohammed. An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 90, No. 429, Mar 1995. 64-71 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"In this article we evaluate the accuracy and bias of projections of total population and population by age group for census tracts in three counties in Florida. We use [U.S. census] data from 1970 and 1980 and several simple extrapolation techniques to produce projections for 1990; we then compare these projections with 1990 census counts and evaluate the differences. For the total sample, we find mean absolute errors of 17%-20% for the three most accurate techniques for projecting total population and find no indication of overall bias. For individual age groups, mean absolute errors range from 20%-29%."
This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: S. K. Smith, University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 221 Matherly Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

61:20096 Stycos, J. Mayone. Population, projections, and policy: a cautionary perspective. Population and Environment, Vol. 16, No. 3, Jan 1995. 205-19 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Population projections depend on censuses, vital statistics and sample surveys, all of which have deficiencies that are most marked in the less developed countries (LDCs)....The United Nations typically prepares 'high,' 'medium' and 'low' projections. Even the high projection contains optimistic assumptions about fertility decline, while assumptions of constant or increasing fertility receive no serious attention. The paper suggests that high and constant fertility projections should receive more attention from policy makers, with medium estimates treated more as targets achievable only through considerable programmatic effort. At the same time, economic and social plans should be laid for dealing with the population sizes implied by the 'high' variants."
Correspondence: J. M. Stycos, Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, 134 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20097 Swanson, David A.; Tayman, Jeff; Beck, Don. On the utility of lagged ratio-correlation as a short-term county population projection method: a case study of Washington State. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 21, No. 1, 1995. 1-16 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
The utility of a new, short-term method of projecting future population at the county level is evaluated and compared with two alternative methods, exponential extrapolation and the cohort-component method, using data for Washington State for 1970, 1980, and 1990. "The evaluation suggests that the lagged ratio-correlation method consistently has a high level of utility for all three timepoints. It achieves reductions in error that are comparable to those achieved by the Cohort-Component Method, yet with much less resource requirements. The exponential extrapolation method is found to have high and moderate utility in two of the three timepoints."
Correspondence: D. A. Swanson, University of Arkansas, Arkansas Institute for Economic Advancement, 2801 South University, Little Rock, AR 72204-1099. Location: Princeton University Library (SF).

61:20098 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Latin America: population projection, 1950-2050. [America Latina: proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2050.] Boletin Demografico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 27, No. 54, Jun 1994. 198 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
In this publication, "the population projections for the 20 Latin American countries, period 1950-2050, are published. As usual...the projections are presented by sex and age groups, including a set of implicit demographic indicators." Data are from censuses and other official sources.
Correspondence: UN Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20099 United Nations. Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis (New York, New York). Population and development projection methods for microcomputers: a user's guide. No. ST/ESA/SER.R/123, 1993. ix, 66 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
This volume was developed by the UN Population Division as a supplement to its manual on projection methods for integrating population variables into development planning. It first gives a brief overview of the Population and Development Projection Methods for Personal or Microcomputer (PDPM/PC), and then gives the steps to follow in making projections, dealing with any problems that may arise, and accessing the results of those projections.
For the manual referred to, see 55:40094, 56:20102, and 59:20084.
Correspondence: UN Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

61:20100 Jelonek, Adam. Natural movement of population in Poland in the 1948-1988 period. [Ruch naturalny ludnosci w Polsce w latach 1948-1988.] Zeszyty Naukowe, Uniwersytetu Jagiellonskiego, Prace Geograficzne, No. 92, ISBN 83-233-0567-6. 1992. 176 pp. Uniwersytet Jagiellonski: Krakow, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng.
Detailed data on vital statistics are presented for each year from 1948 to 1988. They concern total population, marriages, births, deaths, infant deaths, and natural increase, as well as the equivalent rates. The data are presented separately for Poland and the 49 voivodships, and for urban and rural populations by voivodship. The methodology used to prepare these estimates, which takes into account changes in administrative divisions during this period, is explained.
Correspondence: Uniwersytet Jagiellonski, Golebia 24, 31-007 Krakow, Poland. Location: University of Pennsylvania Library, Philadelphia, PA.

61:20101 Mitra, R. G. Analysis of population growth in Mizoram. Demography India, Vol. 22, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1993. 65-75 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper seeks to find plausible reasons for...unusual fluctuations in the rates of growth of population of Mizoram [India] during the last three decades....It first examines in detail the real growth in population separately for the decades 1961-71 and 1971-81....The paper then attempts to find the likely rates of growth of population for the decades between 1961 and 1981. The 1981-91 growth of population of Mizoram is also briefly discussed in light of the changed values of the decadal growth as estimated for the previous two decades."
Correspondence: R. G. Mitra, Office of the Registrar General, Vital Statistics Division, Ministry of Home Affairs, West Block-I, R. K. Puram, New Delhi 110 066, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:20102 Morrill, Richard L. Aging in place, age specific migration and natural decrease. Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 29, No. 1, 1995. 41-66 pp. Secaucus, New Jersey/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"This analysis of regional demographic change evaluates the roles of 'aging in place' and of age-specific migration on the geographic pattern of the advent of natural decrease in the United States. The spread of natural decrease is projected on the basis of recent births and deaths, in the absence of migration. Age-specific migration data for Oregon and Washington are used to develop a typology of counties that can be used in turn to modify the probable timing of natural decrease."
Correspondence: R. L. Morrill, University of Washington, Department of Geography, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

61:20103 Pilar, Ortiz M.; Alban, Estuardo; Zumarraga, Magnolia; Mora, Mariana; Sanchez, Plutarco; Lopez, Marco; Baez, Ximena. Guayaquil, Quito, and the rest of the country: a comparative socio-demographic study. [Guayaquil, Quito y resto del pais: un estudio socio-demografico comparativo.] Jul 1994. 75, [32] pp. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos [INEC]: Quito, Ecuador. In Spa.
The authors outline the principal features of demographic change in Guayaquil, Quito, and the rest of Ecuador during the period 1982-1990. Separate sections focus on population and housing. The chapter on population presents data on general population characteristics, aspects of fertility and infant mortality, migration, education, and economic characteristics of the population. Data are from the 1990 census of population and housing.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos, Avenida 10 de Agosto 229, Edificio San Luis, Quito, Ecuador. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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