Volume 61 - Number 1 - Spring 1995

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

61:10762 Bonneuil, Noel. Nonlinear models in demography. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1994. 122 pp. Gordon and Breach: Langhorne, Pennsylvania/Basel, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Historically, the increasing need to understand observed fertility time-series has promoted interest in non-linear models. Such non-linear research has been beneficial and has led to an increased concern with non-linearities in other demographic questions. This special issue gathers varied contributions on this precise topic: cohort feedback in reproduction, participation in programs of fertility incentives, the two-sex problem, educational planning, regulation to a two-sector economy, and the Malthus-Boserup framework."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Gordon and Breach, c/o International Publishers Distributor, Postfach 4004, Basel, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10763 Chung, Robert. Cycles in the two-sex problem: an investigation of a nonlinear demographic model. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1994. 45-73, 121 pp. Langhorne, Pennsylvania/Basel, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"A fundamental shortcoming of classic stable population theory is its failure to handle populations differentiated by sex. The classic theory is linear while the two-sex problem is inherently nonlinear. Previous two-sex investigations have focused on equilibrium conditions rather than dynamics, and ignored competition between age groups for marriage partners. This study makes a start at analyzing dynamics and models that incorporate competition, which can play an important role in any realistic marriage model and can turn a model with a stable equilibrium sex ratio into one with a cycling equilibrium."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: R. Chung, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10764 Courgeau, Daniel; Lelievre, Eva. New perspectives in life-event history analysis. [Nouvelles perspectives de l'analyse biographique.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 22, No. 1, Spring 1993. 23-43 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"In the last decade, life-event history analysis, also called failure time data analysis or survival analysis, has been widely adopted by demographers. This methodology in demography allows [us] to overcome major hurdles especially when analyzing longitudinal survey data. This paper describes the new perspectives opened to research in that field, and is illustrated by new results and examples of research projects. The authors concentrate on four issues: the analysis of incorrect and imperfect data, the analysis based on more complex data and lastly the study of interaction between phenomena."
Correspondence: D. Courgeau, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10765 Denton, Frank T.; Feaver, Christine H.; Spencer, Byron G. Economic-demographic projection and simulation: a description of the MEDS system of models. In: Studies in applied demography, edited by K. Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 3-12 pp. Bowling Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"MEDS is an acronym for Models of the Economic-Demographic System. It is a series of user-friendly computer models embodying and extending some work on the Canadian economic-demographic system in which we had been engaged for a number of years. The models are designed for use in projection and simulation analysis. They run on standard DOS-based micro-computing equipment, are available to all interested users at low cost, and are freely copyable. The four currently available models are referred to as MEDS1, MEDS2, MEDS4, and MEDS5....We consider first the system as a whole and then each model in turn."
Correspondence: F. T. Denton, McMaster University, Department of Economics, QSEP Program, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4M4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10766 Li, Shaomin. Applications of demographic techniques in modeling customer retention. In: Studies in applied demography, edited by K. Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 183-97 pp. Bowling Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"This paper discusses the application of survival analysis in demography to study customer retention and dynamics between competitors. It is based on a project conducted at a large telecommunication company [in the United States] on customer retention and competitive dynamics. The emphasis of this paper is on the methodology rather than the quantitative results. The data presented here are for illustrative purposes only and have been disguised to protect the proprietary interests of the company."
Correspondence: S. Li, AT&T Business Operations Analysis, P.O. Box 7420, Somerset, NJ 08875-7420. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10767 Schwarz, Louis. Demography's contributions to database marketing: experiences from the private and public sectors. In: Studies in applied demography, edited by K. Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 211-21 pp. Bowling Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"This paper discusses the application of demography and demographic modeling to database marketing efforts in the private and public sectors [in the United States]. Examples are taken from AT&T, American Express, Time Inc., and the St. Louis Public Schools."
Correspondence: L. Schwarz, Management Science Associates, Pittsburgh, PA. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10768 Wachter, Kenneth W. The cohort feedback model with symmetric net maternity. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1994. 25-44, 121 pp. Langhorne, Pennsylvania/Basel, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"In this paper we consider the simplest and most widely used demographic feedback model, the birth-response cohort feedback model. In the case of symmetric net maternity, we put the model into a form in which one of the rare global bifurcation theorems in the mathematical literature can be brought to bear. As a consequence, we prove that the model has solutions with period exactly twice the mean age of net maternity for at least a specified range of parameter values which include cycles of non-infinitesimal amplitude."
Correspondence: K. W. Wachter, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10769 Xie, Yu. Log-multiplicative models for discrete-time discrete-covariate event-history data. Sociological Methodology, Vol. 24, 1994. 301-40 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this paper I develop a new class of discrete-time, discrete-covariate models for modeling nonproportionality in event-history data within the log-multiplicative framework. The models specify nonproportionality in hazards to be a log-multiplicative product of two components: a nonproportionality pattern over time and a nonproportionality level per group. Illustrated with data from the U.S. National Longitudinal Mortality Study...and from the 1980 June Current Population Survey...,the log-multiplicative models are shown to be natural generalizations of proportional hazards models and should be applicable to a wide range of research areas."
Correspondence: Y. Xie, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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