61:10762 Bonneuil,
Noel. Nonlinear models in demography. Mathematical
Population Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1994. 122 pp. Gordon and Breach:
Langhorne, Pennsylvania/Basel, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Historically, the increasing need to understand observed fertility
time-series has promoted interest in non-linear models. Such
non-linear research has been beneficial and has led to an increased
concern with non-linearities in other demographic questions. This
special issue gathers varied contributions on this precise topic:
cohort feedback in reproduction, participation in programs of fertility
incentives, the two-sex problem, educational planning, regulation to a
two-sector economy, and the Malthus-Boserup framework."
Selected
items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population
Index.
Correspondence: Gordon and Breach, c/o International
Publishers Distributor, Postfach 4004, Basel, Switzerland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10763 Chung,
Robert. Cycles in the two-sex problem: an investigation
of a nonlinear demographic model. Mathematical Population Studies,
Vol. 5, No. 1, 1994. 45-73, 121 pp. Langhorne, Pennsylvania/Basel,
Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"A fundamental shortcoming
of classic stable population theory is its failure to handle
populations differentiated by sex. The classic theory is linear while
the two-sex problem is inherently nonlinear. Previous two-sex
investigations have focused on equilibrium conditions rather than
dynamics, and ignored competition between age groups for marriage
partners. This study makes a start at analyzing dynamics and models
that incorporate competition, which can play an important role in any
realistic marriage model and can turn a model with a stable equilibrium
sex ratio into one with a cycling equilibrium."
This is a revised
version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of
the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: R.
Chung, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232
Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
61:10764 Courgeau,
Daniel; Lelievre, Eva. New perspectives in life-event
history analysis. [Nouvelles perspectives de l'analyse
biographique.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 22, No. 1, Spring
1993. 23-43 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"In the last decade, life-event history analysis, also called
failure time data analysis or survival analysis, has been widely
adopted by demographers. This methodology in demography allows [us] to
overcome major hurdles especially when analyzing longitudinal survey
data. This paper describes the new perspectives opened to research in
that field, and is illustrated by new results and examples of research
projects. The authors concentrate on four issues: the analysis of
incorrect and imperfect data, the analysis based on more complex data
and lastly the study of interaction between
phenomena."
Correspondence: D. Courgeau, Institut National
d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14,
France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10765 Denton,
Frank T.; Feaver, Christine H.; Spencer, Byron G.
Economic-demographic projection and simulation: a description of
the MEDS system of models. In: Studies in applied demography,
edited by K. Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 3-12 pp. Bowling
Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society
Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"MEDS is an acronym
for Models of the Economic-Demographic System. It is a series of
user-friendly computer models embodying and extending some work on the
Canadian economic-demographic system in which we had been engaged for a
number of years. The models are designed for use in projection and
simulation analysis. They run on standard DOS-based micro-computing
equipment, are available to all interested users at low cost, and are
freely copyable. The four currently available models are referred to
as MEDS1, MEDS2, MEDS4, and MEDS5....We consider first the system as a
whole and then each model in turn."
Correspondence: F. T.
Denton, McMaster University, Department of Economics, QSEP Program,
Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4M4, Canada. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
61:10766 Li,
Shaomin. Applications of demographic techniques in
modeling customer retention. In: Studies in applied demography,
edited by K. Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 183-97 pp. Bowling
Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society
Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"This paper discusses
the application of survival analysis in demography to study customer
retention and dynamics between competitors. It is based on a project
conducted at a large telecommunication company [in the United States]
on customer retention and competitive dynamics. The emphasis of this
paper is on the methodology rather than the quantitative results. The
data presented here are for illustrative purposes only and have been
disguised to protect the proprietary interests of the
company."
Correspondence: S. Li, AT&T Business Operations
Analysis, P.O. Box 7420, Somerset, NJ 08875-7420. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10767 Schwarz,
Louis. Demography's contributions to database marketing:
experiences from the private and public sectors. In: Studies in
applied demography, edited by K. Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks.
1994. 211-21 pp. Bowling Green State University, Department of
Sociology, Population and Society Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio.
In Eng.
"This paper discusses the application of demography and
demographic modeling to database marketing efforts in the private and
public sectors [in the United States]. Examples are taken from AT&T,
American Express, Time Inc., and the St. Louis Public
Schools."
Correspondence: L. Schwarz, Management Science
Associates, Pittsburgh, PA. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
61:10768 Wachter,
Kenneth W. The cohort feedback model with symmetric net
maternity. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1994.
25-44, 121 pp. Langhorne, Pennsylvania/Basel, Switzerland. In Eng. with
sum. in Fre.
"In this paper we consider the simplest and most
widely used demographic feedback model, the birth-response cohort
feedback model. In the case of symmetric net maternity, we put the
model into a form in which one of the rare global bifurcation theorems
in the mathematical literature can be brought to bear. As a
consequence, we prove that the model has solutions with period exactly
twice the mean age of net maternity for at least a specified range of
parameter values which include cycles of non-infinitesimal
amplitude."
Correspondence: K. W. Wachter, University of
California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley,
CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10769 Xie,
Yu. Log-multiplicative models for discrete-time
discrete-covariate event-history data. Sociological Methodology,
Vol. 24, 1994. 301-40 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this paper I
develop a new class of discrete-time, discrete-covariate models for
modeling nonproportionality in event-history data within the
log-multiplicative framework. The models specify nonproportionality in
hazards to be a log-multiplicative product of two components: a
nonproportionality pattern over time and a nonproportionality level per
group. Illustrated with data from the U.S. National Longitudinal
Mortality Study...and from the 1980 June Current Population
Survey...,the log-multiplicative models are shown to be natural
generalizations of proportional hazards models and should be applicable
to a wide range of research areas."
Correspondence: Y. Xie,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
