Volume 61 - Number 1 - Spring 1995

I. Historical Demography and Demographic History

Studies dealing with the demographic events of any given period from the early historical to the modern, defined as being World War I.

I.1. General Historical Demography

Comprehensive surveys, notes of sources, and items on the state of research. Particularly concerned with the period before modern vital registration was introduced and censuses were taken. Historical items that primarily pertain to one specific demographic variable are classified first under the specific heading and then cross-referenced to this heading.

61:10541 Arnot, Margaret L. Infant death, child care and the state: the baby-farming scandal and the first infant life protection legislation of 1872. Continuity and Change, Vol. 9, No. 2, Aug 1994. 271-311 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
This article looks at baby-farming, which involved the provision of childcare for payment in Victorian England, and which was associated with the mistreatment of children and with high levels of infant mortality. In particular, the author analyzes the debate that took place during the development of legislation designed to regulate this practice. This legislation became the Infant Life Protection Act of 1872.
Correspondence: M. L. Arnot, Roehampton Institute, Department of History, London, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10542 Comba, Rinaldo; Naso, Irma. Demography and society in medieval Italy: the ninth to fourteenth centuries. [Demografia e societa nell'Italia medievale: secoli IX-XIV.] Da Cuneo all'Europa, No. 4, 1994. 497 pp. Societa per gli Studi Storici, Archeologici ed Artistici della Provincia di Cuneo: Cuneo, Italy; Societa Italiana di Demografia Storica [SIDES]: Bologna, Italy. In Ita.
These are the proceedings of an international conference on the demography of Italy in the Middle Ages, held in Cuneo and Carru, Italy, April 28-30, 1994. The 24 papers, 21 of which are in Italian and 3 in French, are divided into three sections, which concern sources, problems, and methods; the city and the countryside; and migration, population policies, and socioeconomic structures.
Correspondence: Societa per gli Studi Storici, Archeologici ed Artistici della Provincia di Cuneo, Via Cacciatori delle Alpi 9, Casella Postale 91, 12100 Cuneo, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10543 Del Panta, Lorenzo; Rettaroli, Rosella. Introduction to historical demography. [Introduzione alla demografia storica.] Manuali Laterza, No. 55, ISBN 88-420-4497-0. 1994. xi, 314 pp. Editori Laterza: Bari, Italy. In Ita.
This is a general introduction to the study of historical demography. It is divided into two sections, which concern sources of data and methods. The geographical focus of the sources is on Italy. In the methodological section separate consideration is given to traditional methods, mortality, fertility, modeling, family reconstruction, aggregative methods, inverse projection, and migration.
Correspondence: Editori Laterza, Via Dante 51, 70121 Bari, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10544 Galloway, Patrick R. Short-run population dynamics among the rich and poor in European countries, rural Jutland, and urban Rouen. In: Old and new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and Roger Schofield. 1993. 84-108 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The present analysis examines how demographic responses to price increases varied between rich and poor European countries, rich and poor districts in a rural portion of Jutland (Arhus diocese) in Denmark, and rich and poor parishes in the city of Rouen in France. The choice of these areas is governed by the desire to examine short-term preventive and positive checks in countries, in a rural setting, and in a major urban centre." The data concern five European countries (England, France, Denmark, Prussia, and Sweden) for the period 1756-1870; 19 rural districts in Arhus, Denmark for the period 1726-1796; and eight parishes in Rouen, France, for the period 1681-1744. The results indicate that the poor were generally the first to experience the impact of economic crises, but that the rich also were affected after a certain time interval.
Correspondence: P. R. Galloway, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10545 Lee, James; Campbell, Cameron; Wang, Feng. The last emperors: an introduction to the demography of the Qing (1644-1911) Imperial Lineage. In: Old and new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and Roger Schofield. 1993. 361-82 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In this chapter we introduce a major new source for the demographic history of the Qing dynasty [of China]--the archives of the Office of the Imperial Lineage (zongren fu)--and present results from our preliminary analysis of portions of these data....In the first section we describe the contents and organization of the Imperial Lineage Office archives. We then outline the particular strengths of these data for demographic analysis and identify several important limitations. Finally, we present our preliminary conclusions on the demography of the Qing imperial lineage including crude demographic rates, as well as specific patterns of cohort and period child and adult mortality."
Correspondence: J. Lee, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10546 Teuteberg, Hans J. Materials on the population history of Munster, 1816-1945. [Materialien zur Bevolkerungsgeschichte Munsters 1816-1945.] Beitrage zur Statistik Munsters, No. 59, Jun 1993. 207 pp. Statistisches Amt: Munster, Germany. In Ger.
This publication contains statistical tables on the population of the city of Munster, Germany, between 1816 and 1945. Data are included on resident population; marital status; religion; live births and stillbirths; births by month, sex, legitimacy, and religion; birth rates; marriages by age, month, marital status, and religion; deaths by religion, month, sex, and age; causes of death; infant mortality; migration; and population growth.
Correspondence: Statistisches Amt, Postfach 59 09, 48127 Munster, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10547 Teuteberg, Hans-Jurgen. Population trends and urban incorporation (1816-1945). [Bevolkerungsentwicklung und Eingemeindungen (1816-1945).] Geschichte der Stadt Munster, Vol. 2, [1994?]. 331-86 pp. Munster, Germany. In Ger.
The demographic history of the city of Munster, Germany, is examined for the period 1816-1945. Information is included on population size and growth, occupational structure, age distribution, religion, marriages, births, mortality and infant mortality, causes of death, in- and out-migration, and the incorporation of surrounding municipalities into the city.
Correspondence: H.-J. Teuteberg, Westfalische Wilhelms-Universitat, Domplatz 20-22, 48143 Munster, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10548 Wrigley, E. A. Historic demography and economy. Annales de Demographie Historique, 1993. 367-81 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
The author examines the relationship between reproduction and production in pre-industrial societies. "I shall begin by briefly summarizing some of the findings of recent work on the economic and demographic history of England and then offer some suggestions about the extent of similarities between England and other countries in the early modern period." He concludes that "Western Europe appears to have been unique among the world's major cultures in having a marriage system which did at least offer the possibility of reconciling successfully the wish to maintain living standards among the current generation with the need to ensure that a new generation would grow up to replace them."
Correspondence: E. A. Wrigley, University of Oxford, All Souls College, Oxford OA1 4AL, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

I.2. Methods of Historical Demography

Applications of demographic methodology to the records of the past in order to obtain further demographic information. Relevant items are coded here and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models if of more general interest than to historical demography alone.

61:10549 Bideau, A.; Brunet, G. The construction of individual life histories: application to the study of geographical mobility in the Valserine Valley (French Jura) in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. In: Old and new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and Roger Schofield. 1993. 111-24 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
Using the example of the Valserine Valley in the French Jura, the authors attempt to supplement data from family reconstitution by linking vital records and nominative census schedules. "This has made it possible to construct individual biographies which contain information on all individuals from the two sources, beginning at birth (or at the time when the individual entered observation), and continuing until his or her death, or exit from observation. By using census schedules, dates of entry into or exit from observation can be estimated with a fair degree of accuracy for individuals whose biographies are incomplete." The study concerns the period 1856-1936. The results show that life histories can be used to clear up some problems in historical demography.
Correspondence: A. Bideau, 70 rue Jean Jaures, 69100 Villeurbanne, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10550 Bonneuil, Noel. The trend method applied to English data. In: Old and new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and Roger Schofield. 1993. 57-65 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author introduces "the trend method [that] makes it possible to find a value that can generate the series of observed baptisms and burials. If, in addition, data from an enumeration are available during the period under consideration, the numbers of births and deaths may be adjusted to make the two sets of data consistent. The necessary changes may be attributed to under-registration. Reconstruction of the population of England [for 1541-1871] by this method gives results very close to those obtained by inverse projection, with the same migration figures. It can, therefore, be used to test its sensitivity to under-registration of deaths."
Correspondence: N. Bonneuil, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10551 Chevet, Jean-Michel. Demographic crises in France at the end of the seventeenth century and during the eighteenth century: an attempt at estimation. [Les crises demographiques en France a la fin du XVIIe siecle et au XVIIIe siecle: un essai de mesure.] Histoire et Mesure, Vol. 8, No. 1-2, 1993. 117-44 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author first reviews methods used to measure and quantify the demographic impact of various crises, such as famines or epidemics, which affected populations in the past. Having identified the limitations of those methods, he proposes an alternative based on ARIMA models, and applies it to French data for the period 1670-1789. Various demographic crises affecting mortality that occurred during this period are identified, together with intervening periods of population growth. The author uses this analysis to challenge the concept of auto-regulation of the populations of the ancien regime.
Correspondence: J.-M. Chevet, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, 65 boulevard de Brandebourg, 94205 Ivry Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10552 Diamond, Ian; Davies, Rhodri; Egger, Peter. Some applications of recent developments in event history analysis for historical demography. In: Old and new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and Roger Schofield. 1993. 223-38 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In this paper we will first briefly review event-history analysis and its potential errors. We go on to describe two analytical approaches which may enable historical demographers to gain improved insights into the social, economic, and behavioural processes that influence historical event histories, which are subject to error and unobserved data. These are the analysis of current-status data, and of random-effects logistic regression. These techniques are illustrated with event histories from the parish of Herstmonceux in southern England during the nineteenth century."
Correspondence: I. Diamond, University of Southampton, Department of Social Statistics, Southampton S09 5NH, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10553 Gutmann, Myron P.; Alter, George. Family reconstitution as event-history analysis. In: Old and new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and Roger Schofield. 1993. 159-77 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The object of this paper is to show that it is possible to reconceptualize virtually all family reconstitution data in ways that make event-history analysis possible." A practical example is given using data on marriage and fertility from Gillespie County, Texas, for the period 1846-1910. The results indicate that family reconstitution data are particularly well suited to event-history analysis.
Correspondence: M. P. Gutmann, University of Texas, Department of Sociology, Population Research Center, 1800 Main Building, Austin, TX 78712-1088. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10554 Hammel, E. A. Incomplete histories in family reconstitution: a sensitivity test of alternative strategies with historical Croatian data. In: Old and new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and Roger Schofield. 1993. 125-44 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In this paper I explore alternative strategies for dealing with incomplete marriage histories in the study of fertility by family reconstitution, and explicitly test two of them. The study is based on some 220,000 records of baptisms, burials, and marriages from seven adjacent parishes in Slavonia, Croatia, for the period 1714-1898. Analysis is restricted to fertile first marriages with at least one child."
Correspondence: E. A. Hammel, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10555 Lee, Ronald D. Inverse projection and demographic fluctuations: a critical assessment of new methods. In: Old and new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and Roger Schofield. 1993. 7-28 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author reviews developments in two analytical approaches to the study of macro-aspects of historical demography, which are "inverse projection and related methods for estimating vital rates and age distributions from series of births and deaths; and the statistical analysis of short-run fluctuations in series of births, deaths, and marriages in relation to economic and meteorological variables."
Correspondence: R. D. Lee, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10556 Livi Bacci, Massimo; Reher, David S. Other paths to the past: from vital series to population patterns. In: Old and new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and Roger Schofield. 1993. 66-83 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In the present paper we present some indirect methods of estimating population size, fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, and discuss the validity of the methods used in the light of the results obtained." The data are from parish registers from New Castile, Spain, for the period from the early sixteenth century to 1900. The results suggest that "on the whole, the basic method of reconstructing past population trends has proved successful, having fared well when results were compared with independently derived estimates of population size, age structure, and crude rates."
Correspondence: M. Livi Bacci, Universita degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento Statistico, Via Curtatone 1, 50123 Florence, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10557 McCaa, Robert. Benchmarks for a new inverse population projection program: England, Sweden, and a standard demographic transition. In: Old and new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and Roger Schofield. 1993. 40-56 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper evaluates a new inverse projection microcomputer program, 'Populate', in which three standard populations are used as benchmarks; and in the process it suggests some limitations and advantages of the program and the method." Three standard populations are used to calibrate Populate, a hypothetical data set constructed by McGirr and Rutstein, Wrigley and Schofield's back projection of the population of England, and Sundbarg's data for Sweden for the period 1750-1875. The author concludes that "these tests illustrate the remarkable robustness of inverse projection."
Correspondence: R. McCaa, University of Minnesota, Department of History, 267 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10558 Oeppen, Jim. Generalized inverse projection. In: Old and new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and Roger Schofield. 1993. 29-39 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author introduces a model framework for the estimation of population stocks from birth and death flows called generalized inverse projection (GIP). This method encloses both inverse projection and back projection and seems to be applicable to a variety of problems in population reconstruction, interpolation, and data correction.
Correspondence: J. Oeppen, Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, 27 Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1QA, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10559 Trussell, James; Guinnane, Timothy. Techniques of event-history analysis. In: Old and new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and Roger Schofield. 1993. 181-205 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In this paper, we explain the logic of failure-time models in terms that will be familiar to historical demographers who are conversant with standard statistical techniques, such as logistic regression....In the first section we provide a brief introduction to event-history analysis. In the second section we consider the generalization of life-table methodology to accommodate covariates. The third section briefly describes several alternative specifications of failure-time models, including parametric representations of the hazard and accelerated failure-time models. In the fourth section the issues of analyses of concurrent processes, non-informative censoring, unobserved heterogeneity, and goodness of fit are discussed. We close with an illustrative analysis of remarriage in Germany that demonstrates the power of these new techniques."
Correspondence: J. Trussell, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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