Volume 61 - Number 1 - Spring 1995

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

61:10063 Duchesne, Louis. Evolution of the population of Quebec and Canada over the past century and a half in the absence of migration. [Evolution de la population au Quebec et au Canada depuis un siecle et demi en l'absence de migrations.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 22, No. 1, Spring 1993. 1-21 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"Population projections in the absence of migration--based on observed or estimated mortality and fertility rates since 1851--help provide a long-term assessment of migration in Quebec and Canada, through the comparison of census data with the results of such projections. Without migration since 1851, Quebec would have had 12 million inhabitants in 1991 instead of the observed 7 million. For Canada, the projection [excluding] migration since 1871 results in a population of 26 million persons (without Newfoundland), this being one million less than the latest census total."
Correspondence: L. Duchesne, Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec, 117 rue Saint-Andre, Quebec, Quebec G1K 3Y3, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10064 Galloway, Patrick R. A reconstruction of the population of north Italy from 1650 to 1881 using annual inverse projection with comparisons to England, France, and Sweden. European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 10, No. 3, 1994. 223-74 pp. Hingham, Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"North Italy annual population and vital rates are reconstructed from 1650 to 1881 using series of vital event indices from many rural parishes and cities. Inverse projection is applied to the reconstructed series of vital events and population to generate annual age distribution, gross reproduction rate, net reproduction rate, life expectancy at birth, and infant mortality rate. The results are compared with official sources and detailed demographic rates produced by annual inverse projection using data from England, France, and Sweden. Over the long term, North Italy is generally characterized by stagnant and relatively high mortality. Fertility and nuptiality are relatively high at the beginning and at the end of the period."
Correspondence: P. R. Galloway, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10065 Nusteling, Hubert P. H. English population statistics for the first half of the nineteenth century: a new answer to old questions. Annales de Demographie Historique, 1993. 171-89 pp. Paris, France. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
The author applies a method for estimating the size of populations in the past to data from the 1871 English census. The primary assumption used "is the existence of a homeostatic equilibrium between fertile marriages and population size, which is maintained despite...fluctuations in mortality and remarriage, in migration and age structure, in marriage age and nuptiality,...despite...certain shifts in fertility. A change in one factor is counterbalanced by changes in others, through which the relation between fertile marriages and the population remains the same. This phenomenon can be referred to by the term demographic homeostasis." The method is shown to produce reliable estimates in general, and the author provides explanations for apparent problems concerning estimates for 1801 and 1841.
Correspondence: H. P. H. Nusteling, University of Nijmegen, Nijmegen, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10066 Rochas, Jean-Edouard. A retrospective review of the demography of France by department and region. Volume 1. Natural increase since 1946. Population trends since 1901. [Retrospective demographique de la France par departement et region. Tome 1. Mouvement domicilie de la population depuis 1946. Rappel de la population depuis 1901.] INSEE Resultats: Demographie-Societe, No. 36-37-38, ISBN 2-11-066205-0. Oct 1994. 400 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
A selection of retrospective demographic data for France is presented. The data concern territorial changes affecting departments since 1901, the population of departments and regions from 1901 to 1990 according to their present and administrative boundaries, births and deaths by department of residence, marriages by department of residence, and intercensal population changes by department and region (including births, deaths, natural increase, and migration). Most of these data are presented from the 1940s to the present day.
Correspondence: Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10067 Smith, James E.; Oeppen, Jim. Estimating numbers of kin in historical England using demographic microsimulation. In: Old and new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and Roger Schofield. 1993. 280-317 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors use techniques of computer microsimulation to estimate the mean number of living kin, the proportion with living kin, and mean age of living kin for individuals of various ages in England from the sixteenth to the eighteenth centuries. The model used, CAMSIM, is "a Monte Carlo microsimulation model which produces kin sets for a birth cohort of unrelated egos in a stable population."
Correspondence: J. E. Smith, Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, Unit on Ageing, 27 Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1QA, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

61:10068 Andrle, Alois. The demographic situation in the Czech Republic. [Die demographische Situation in der Tschechischen Republik.] Raumforschung und Raumordnung, Vol. 52, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1994. 138-43 pp. Cologne, Germany. In Ger.
The demographic situation in the Czech Republic is reviewed using data from the 1991 census. Information is included on population size and growth, fertility and population reproduction, age structure, educational status, employment, and population projections to 2020.
Correspondence: A. Andrle, TERPLAN, Platnerska 19, 110 00 Prague 1, Czech Republic. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10069 Armitage, Bob. Retrospective revisions to population estimates for 1981-90. Population Trends, No. 77, Autumn 1994. 33-6 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This article explains why revisions have recently been made to population estimates for the 1980s, and describes briefly how the revisions were made to both national and local estimates. A summary analysis is given of the sizes of various revisions--for example 0.4 per cent of the total 1991 national population in England and Wales, and an average 2.5 per cent for corresponding estimates for local authority districts."
Correspondence: B. Armitage, Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, Population Statistics Division, St. Catherine's House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10070 Bender, Rosemary; Verma, Ravi B. P. Role of census coverage in population estimation of local areas: a comparison between Canada and the United States. In: Studies in applied demography, edited by K. Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 273-87 pp. Bowling Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"In light of the possible adjustments for census undercoverage to the population estimation programs in Canada and the United States, this paper examines the effects on the methodologies used to produce estimates of the total population for local areas. The first section provides a brief theoretical background. This is followed by an empirical analysis of the effects of adjusting for census undercoverage on population estimates for census divisions in Canada, where the level of census undercoverage has increased, and for counties in the United States, where undercoverage rates have decreased."
Correspondence: R. Bender, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10071 Dyson, Tim. On the demography of the 1991 census. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 29, No. 51-52, Dec 17-24, 1994. 3,235-9 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
An analysis of preliminary data from the 1991 census of India is presented. "India's true population size is very much larger than is indicated by the census--and the post-enumeration check results are a poor indicator of the true level of underenumeration. While there has probably been considerable fertility and mortality decline in India during the 1980s, it is much less certain that the last decade has witnessed any reduction in the rate of population growth. A picture of constant rate of population growth between 1971-81 and 1981-91 is far more convincing--coupled with a higher rate of all-India growth during the 1961-71 decade." The author also suggests that it is unlikely that the relative mortality experienced by females has deteriorated.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

61:10072 Gruber, Stefan; Riede, Thomas. First results of the microcensus of April 1993. [Erste Ergebnisse des Mikrozensus April 1993.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 7, Jul 1994. 518-33 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Results of the April 1993 microcensus of Germany are presented, together with some comparative data for 1991 and 1992. Information is included on population growth, labor force participation, income, and foreigners. Differences between former East and West Germany are examined.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

61:10073 Levy, Michel L. Europe, a review. [L'Europe, aide-memoire.] Population et Societes, No. 296, Dec 1994. 1-3 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
A selection of demographic data is presented for the 37 countries of Europe. They include total population size, density, births, infant mortality, and an indicator of demographic aging.
Correspondence: M. L. Levy, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10074 Macau. Direccao de Servicos de Estatistica e Censos (Macau). Estimates of the resident population by sex and five-year age groups, 1951-1991: projections of the resident population, 1990-2000. [Estimativas da populacao residente, por sexos e grupos etarios quinquenais, 1951-1991: projeccoes da populacao residente, 1990-2000.] Apr 1994. 231 pp. Macau. In Chi; Por.
This report presents population estimates for Macau. The first part concerns the period 1951-1991 by age and sex, based on data from the 1991 census. The second part presents population projections up to the year 2000, also by age and sex.
Correspondence: Direccao de Servicos de Estatistica e Censos, Documentation and Information Centre, Rua Inacio Baptista 4D-6, 3o andar, Macau. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10075 Merrick, Thomas W. Population dynamics in developing countries. In: Population and development: old debates, new conclusions, edited by Robert Cassen. 1994. 79-105 pp. Transaction Publishers: New Brunswick, New Jersey/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Developing countries are currently undergoing a massive surge in population--a result of death rates declining earlier and faster than birth rates....This chapter reviews current demographic trends and explores the potential of public policies and programs to create alternative demographic scenarios."
Correspondence: T. W. Merrick, World Bank, Population, Health and Nutrition Department, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10076 Otto, Johannes. World population--past developments and future trends. [Weltbevolkerung--bisherige Entwicklungen, gegenwartige Strukturen und zukunftige Trends.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 19, No. 3, 1993-1994. 323-63 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The author reviews past and possible future developments in world population. Information is included on population size and growth, regional distribution, total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth, mortality differentials, infant and child mortality, age distribution, urban population, international migration, and refugees.
Correspondence: J. Otto, Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung, 65180 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10077 Prevost, Ron. State housing unit and household estimates: April 1, 1980, to July 1, 1993. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1123, Oct 1994. xi, 10 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This report presents estimates of households for the United States, regions, and individual states for the period 1990-1993; it includes information on age of householder as well as housing estimates.
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10078 Rees, P. Estimating and projecting the populations of urban communities. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 26, No. 11, Nov 1994. 1,671-97 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The author describes a model for estimating and projecting the populations of communities living in small areas within cities. The model provides a means of updating the demographic inputs needed for projection between censuses and means of developing scenarios of demographic change and housing development. The method for estimating small-area populations between censuses is evaluated with recently published 1991 [U.K.] Census data. Single-year age-group detail is provided and the associated databases are embedded in a flexible user interface. Illustrative projections are discussed and interpreted for the northern English city of Bradford....The model, although particular to districts of West Yorkshire, has been specified in a general way and could be adapted for use with any British district."
Correspondence: P. Rees, University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

61:10079 Shahidullah, Mohammed. An evaluation of the accuracy of 1990 population estimates by age, sex and race for Florida and its counties. In: Studies in applied demography, edited by K. Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 109-19 pp. Bowling Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"In this paper we evaluate the accuracy of the 1990 population estimates by age, sex and race for Florida and its 67 counties....The findings...indicate that use of vital records and Medicare data can improve age, sex and race estimates for the youngest and oldest age groups. In a situation where assumption on age specific birth rates for nonwhites is not reliable the substitution of estimated births can help significantly to improve the estimate for the youngest age group. We suspect that high migration rates and census undercounts are responsible for high rates of inaccuracy for estimates in the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups, particularly for nonwhites."
Correspondence: M. Shahidullah, University of Florida, College of Business Administration, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Gainesville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10080 Stankovic, Vladimir. The 1991 census and the current demographic situation in Serbia. [Osvrt na neke vaznije rezultate popisa 1991. i aktuelno demografsko stanje u Republici Srbiji.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 30-31, 1992-1993. 178-82 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr.
Some of the main results of the 1991 census of Yugoslavia are summarized, focusing on data concerning Serbia. Recent demographic trends in Serbia and its regions are described.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10081 Steenkamp, H. A. Population estimates for the RSA by magisterial district and province, 1994. Research Report/Navorsingsverslag, No. 212, ISBN 0-947459-55-3. 1994. ix, 80 pp. University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research: Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
Population estimates are presented for South Africa based on data from the 1991 census. The estimates are presented by major population group, province, metropolitan area, statistical region, and magisterial district for 1991 and 1994.
Correspondence: University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research, Box 392, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10082 Tayman, Jeff. Estimating population, housing and employment for micro-geographic areas. In: Studies in applied demography, edited by K. Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 101-7 pp. Bowling Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"This paper described procedures for developing current estimates of population, housing and place-of-work employment for micro-geographic areas [in San Diego County, California]. It demonstrates that with the proper technology and innovative use of nontraditional data sources, it is possible to estimate these activities for sub-census tract geographic areas. The procedures represent an interdisciplinary approach to the problem, blending the theory and methods from demography and geography....Residential meter and wage and salary employer address-level files allow a reasonably accurate determination of the micro-geographic location of employment and residential activities."
Correspondence: J. Tayman, San Diego Association of Government, 401 B Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA 92101. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

61:10083 Andrews, William P. Facing the Malthusian threat: some implications of the world population explosion. Mankind Quarterly, Vol. 33, No. 1, Fall 1992. 121-6 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author examines the implications of current global population trends, with the emphasis on qualitative as well as quantitative issues. He shows that the projected population numbers will adversely affect the quality of life within one generation, and that current demographic trends will lead to a measurable decline in the intelligence of the population of the United States during the twenty-first century.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10084 Carnahan, Douglas; Johnson, Patricia. Selection of migration rates in local area population projections: metropolitan Boston as a case study. In: Studies in applied demography, edited by K. Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 29-49 pp. Bowling Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"The present authors...were recently faced with making new population age group projections for metropolitan Boston. Our evaluation of possible assumptions about future demographic and economic trends led us to identify local area characteristics that could help us decide whether recent data is appropriate to extend into the future....[We review] the changes in demographic and economic conditions since 1970. After the review, we return to the impact on migration during each of the [last two] decades. This is followed by a discussion of the assumptions we made about future trends and their influence on our projections. We conclude by suggesting several guidelines for making local area population projections."
Correspondence: D. Carnahan, Metropolitan Area Planning Council, Metropolitan Data Center, Boston, MA 02215. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10085 Deschamps, Linda; Le Gleau, Jean-Pierre. What will regional populations look like in 2015? [Quelle population pour les regions en 2015?] Economie et Statistique, No. 274, 1994. 33-42, 93, 95, 97 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Spa.
The authors analyze the geographic implications for France of projected population growth up to the year 2015. "There would be a higher concentration of people in the Mediterranean and Paris area regions, while the Massif Central and the North-East quarter of the country, with the exception of Alsace, would see their populations fall. Migratory movements should help the Paris area to best resist the general aging in France. The fact that the Paris area attracts students and young working people contributes to both its demographic growth and its youthfulness compared with the rest of France. Conversely, the aging of the West will escalate if the arrival of people around retirement age continues."
Correspondence: L. Deschamps, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Division Statistiques et Etudes Regionales, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10086 Dinh, Quang Chi. The population of France up to 2050. [La population de la France a l'horizon 2050.] Economie et Statistique, No. 274, 1994. 7-32, 93, 95, 97 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Spa.
Population projections are presented for France up to the year 2050. Three alternative hypotheses concerning fertility are included in the projections. The projections indicate that the population will continue to grow in size up to the year 2020. At that time, the population over age 60 will be larger both absolutely and proportionately than the population under age 20.
Correspondence: Q. C. Dinh, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Division des Enquetes et Etudes Demographiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10087 Ecuador. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos [INEC] (Quito, Ecuador). Ecuador: population projections by province, canton, area, sex, and age-group. 1990-2000. [Ecuador: proyecciones de poblacion por provincias, cantones, areas, sexo y grupos de edad. Periodo 1990-2000.] Aug 1994. 101 pp. Quito, Ecuador. In Spa.
Population projections are presented for Ecuador up to the year 2000. The projections are given by sex and age group by province, area, and rural and urban canton. Data are mainly from the 1982 and 1990 censuses.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos, Avenida 10 de Agosto 229, Edificio San Luis, Quito, Ecuador. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10088 Gowariker, Vasant. Demographic transition in India. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 29, No. 49, Dec 3, 1994. 3,106-8 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
The author responds to a critique by K. C. Seal and P. P. Talwar of his suggestion that the population of India will be substantially lower than is indicated in most recent projections. He continues to maintain that India's population will not exceed China's in size, and that India is on the verge of achieving its goal of controlling population growth.
For the article by Seal and Talwar, also published in 1994, see elsewhere in this issue.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

61:10089 Hirschman, Charles. The meaning of race and ethnic population projections. Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper, No. 94-4, Apr 1994. 33 pp. University of Washington, Seattle Population Research Center: Seattle, Washington; Battelle Seattle Research Center: Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"In this essay, I question the technical bases and conventional interpretation of the long-term projections of the U.S. population by race and ethnicity."
Correspondence: Seattle Population Research Center, c/o University of Washington, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology Library, Department of Sociology DK-40, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10090 Lee, Ronald D.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad. Stochastic population forecasts for the United States: beyond high, medium, and low. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 89, No. 428, Dec 1994. 1,175-89 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This article presents and implements a new method for making stochastic population forecasts that provide consistent probability intervals. We blend mathematical demography and statistical time series methods to estimate stochastic models of fertility and mortality based on U.S. data back to 1900 and then use the theory of random-matrix products to forecast various demographic measures and their associated probability intervals to the year 2065. Our expected total population sizes agree quite closely with the Census medium projections, and our 95 percent probability intervals are close to the Census high and low scenarios. But Census intervals in 2065 for ages 65+ are nearly three times as broad as ours, and for 85+ are nearly twice as broad. In contrast, our intervals for the total dependency and youth dependency ratios are more than twice as broad as theirs, and our ratio for the elderly dependency ratio is 12 times as great as theirs. These items have major implications for policy, and these contrasting indications of uncertainty clearly show the limitations of the conventional scenario-based methods."
Correspondence: R. D. Lee, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

61:10091 Norway. Statistisk Sentralbyra (Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway). Population projections, 1993-2050: national and regional figures. [Framskriving av folkemengden, 1993-2050: nasjonale og regionale tall.] Norges Offisielle Statistikk/Official Statistics of Norway, No. C 176, ISBN 82-537-4047-6. 1994. 166 pp. Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor. with sum. in Eng.
Population projections are presented for Norway by age, sex, and region. "The new projections cover the period up to 2050 for the country as a whole and for counties, whereas results at the municipal level have only been computed up to 2020. This publication presents county data up to 2030 only...."
Correspondence: Statistisk Sentralbyra, P.B. 8131 Dep., 0033 Oslo 1, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10092 Ramachandran, P. Multiregional projection model and its application to India. In: Studies in applied demography, edited by K. Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 51-63 pp. Bowling Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"This paper begins with the development of a multiregional demographic model for population projections and its extension. Section 2 describes briefly the multiregional projection model. Section 3 discusses the application and use of models with incomplete data to India. Section 4 presents the issues relating to the application of the model to developing countries."
Correspondence: P. Ramachandran, Sri Venkateswara University, Department of Population Studies, Tirupati 517 502, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10093 Romaniuc, Anatole. Reflection on population forecasting: from prediction to prospective analysis. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 21, No. 2, 1994. 165-80 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The notion of predictability, central to the conventional meaning given to projection, is de-emphasized, and that of analytical credibility stressed. The usefulness of a projection is to be judged by the extent to which it contributes to decisions shaping the future. The author explores the epistemological base for this reconceptualization of the projection as an instrument of 'creating' rather than 'discovering' the future. To this end, he turns to the contemporary developments in the philosophy of science."
Correspondence: A. Romaniuc, University of Alberta, Department of Sociology, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2HA, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10094 Seal, K. C.; Talwar, P. P. The billion plus population: another dimension. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 29, No. 36, Sep 3, 1994. 2,344-7 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
The authors present a critique of a recent study by Vasant Gowariker, in which it was suggested that the population of India will be substantially lower than indicated in most current projections. "The study focuses attention on (a) plausible levels of the vital rates in the future, (b) realistic time horizon for attaining the replacement level fertility (NRR = 1.0), and (c) likely population size by 2000 AD. Some comments are also offered on the validity of Gowariker's assessment that India's population will never exceed China's population."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

61:10095 Shaw, Chris. Accuracy and uncertainty of the national population projections for the United Kingdom. Population Trends, No. 77, Autumn 1994. 24-32 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This article considers how accurate recent national population projections for the United Kingdom, made since 1971, have turned out to be. The overall size of the population has generally been forecast fairly accurately, although this often turns out to have been a consequence of compensating errors in the projections of births, deaths, and migrants. Fertility has tended to be overestimated, mortality assumptions have been too pessimistic, and net migration into the United Kingdom has consistently been underestimated. However, there is evidence that the accuracy, at least over the short-term, has improved in more recent projections. The article also discusses 'variant' projections, the traditional method of illustrating uncertainty in national population projections."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

61:10096 Sommer, Bettina. Population trends up to 2040. [Entwicklung der Bevolkerung bis 2040.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 7, Jul 1994. 497-503 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Population projections for Germany are presented for the period 1993-2040 using three different variants. The projections are the eighth in a series carried out by the state statistical offices and coordinated by the Federal Statistical Office. Assumptions are first discussed, and then results are provided for Germany as a whole and for former East and West Germany. Special attention is given to changes in age structure.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

61:10097 Zaire. Institut National de la Statistique (Kinshasa, Zaire). Scientific population census, 1984. Population projections for Zaire and its regions, 1984-2000. [Recensement scientific de la population, 1984. Projections demographiques, Zaire et regions, 1984-2000.] 1993. 56, [3] pp. Kinshasa, Zaire. In Fre.
Population projections are presented for Zaire and its regions up to the year 2000. Data are from the 1984 census.
Correspondence: Institut National de la Statistique, Ministere du Plan et Amenagement du Territoire, Kinshasa, Zaire. Location: New York Public Library, New York, NY.

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

61:10098 Coulibaly, Sidiki; Samson, Lamleen B. Can population grow forever in Africa? Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 19, No. 3, 1993-1994. 282-90 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Eng.
"Is it...possible...to slow down...population growth in Africa? The paper will first try to describe the facts, [focusing on the] African population situation compared to the rest of the world....Then we will try to show why the trends of growth may be sustained in Africa for a certain length of time, and thirdly why the trends of growth may not be sustained."
Correspondence: L. B. Samson, Institut de Formation et de Recherche Demographiques, B.P. 1556, Yaounde, Cameroon. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


Copyright © 1995-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.