61:10063 Duchesne,
Louis. Evolution of the population of Quebec and Canada
over the past century and a half in the absence of migration.
[Evolution de la population au Quebec et au Canada depuis un siecle et
demi en l'absence de migrations.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie,
Vol. 22, No. 1, Spring 1993. 1-21 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with
sum. in Eng; Spa.
"Population projections in the absence of
migration--based on observed or estimated mortality and fertility rates
since 1851--help provide a long-term assessment of migration in Quebec
and Canada, through the comparison of census data with the results of
such projections. Without migration since 1851, Quebec would have had
12 million inhabitants in 1991 instead of the observed 7 million. For
Canada, the projection [excluding] migration since 1871 results in a
population of 26 million persons (without Newfoundland), this being one
million less than the latest census total."
Correspondence:
L. Duchesne, Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec, 117 rue Saint-Andre,
Quebec, Quebec G1K 3Y3, Canada. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
61:10064 Galloway,
Patrick R. A reconstruction of the population of north
Italy from 1650 to 1881 using annual inverse projection with
comparisons to England, France, and Sweden. European Journal of
Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 10, No. 3, 1994.
223-74 pp. Hingham, Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with
sum. in Fre.
"North Italy annual population and vital rates are
reconstructed from 1650 to 1881 using series of vital event indices
from many rural parishes and cities. Inverse projection is applied to
the reconstructed series of vital events and population to generate
annual age distribution, gross reproduction rate, net reproduction
rate, life expectancy at birth, and infant mortality rate. The results
are compared with official sources and detailed demographic rates
produced by annual inverse projection using data from England, France,
and Sweden. Over the long term, North Italy is generally characterized
by stagnant and relatively high mortality. Fertility and nuptiality
are relatively high at the beginning and at the end of the
period."
Correspondence: P. R. Galloway, University of
California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley,
CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10065 Nusteling,
Hubert P. H. English population statistics for the first
half of the nineteenth century: a new answer to old questions.
Annales de Demographie Historique, 1993. 171-89 pp. Paris, France. In
Eng. with sum. in Fre.
The author applies a method for estimating
the size of populations in the past to data from the 1871 English
census. The primary assumption used "is the existence of a homeostatic
equilibrium between fertile marriages and population size, which is
maintained despite...fluctuations in mortality and remarriage, in
migration and age structure, in marriage age and
nuptiality,...despite...certain shifts in fertility. A change in one
factor is counterbalanced by changes in others, through which the
relation between fertile marriages and the population remains the same.
This phenomenon can be referred to by the term demographic
homeostasis." The method is shown to produce reliable estimates in
general, and the author provides explanations for apparent problems
concerning estimates for 1801 and 1841.
Correspondence: H.
P. H. Nusteling, University of Nijmegen, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10066 Rochas,
Jean-Edouard. A retrospective review of the demography of
France by department and region. Volume 1. Natural increase since
1946. Population trends since 1901. [Retrospective demographique
de la France par departement et region. Tome 1. Mouvement domicilie de
la population depuis 1946. Rappel de la population depuis 1901.] INSEE
Resultats: Demographie-Societe, No. 36-37-38, ISBN 2-11-066205-0. Oct
1994. 400 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes
Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
A selection of
retrospective demographic data for France is presented. The data
concern territorial changes affecting departments since 1901, the
population of departments and regions from 1901 to 1990 according to
their present and administrative boundaries, births and deaths by
department of residence, marriages by department of residence, and
intercensal population changes by department and region (including
births, deaths, natural increase, and migration). Most of these data
are presented from the 1940s to the present
day.
Correspondence: Institut National de la Statistique et
des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex
14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10067 Smith,
James E.; Oeppen, Jim. Estimating numbers of kin in
historical England using demographic microsimulation. In: Old and
new methods in historical demography, edited by David S. Reher and
Roger Schofield. 1993. 280-317 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In
Eng.
The authors use techniques of computer microsimulation to
estimate the mean number of living kin, the proportion with living kin,
and mean age of living kin for individuals of various ages in England
from the sixteenth to the eighteenth centuries. The model used,
CAMSIM, is "a Monte Carlo microsimulation model which produces kin sets
for a birth cohort of unrelated egos in a stable
population."
Correspondence: J. E. Smith, Cambridge Group
for the History of Population and Social Structure, Unit on Ageing, 27
Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1QA, England. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10068 Andrle,
Alois. The demographic situation in the Czech
Republic. [Die demographische Situation in der Tschechischen
Republik.] Raumforschung und Raumordnung, Vol. 52, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1994.
138-43 pp. Cologne, Germany. In Ger.
The demographic situation in
the Czech Republic is reviewed using data from the 1991 census.
Information is included on population size and growth, fertility and
population reproduction, age structure, educational status, employment,
and population projections to 2020.
Correspondence: A.
Andrle, TERPLAN, Platnerska 19, 110 00 Prague 1, Czech Republic.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10069 Armitage,
Bob. Retrospective revisions to population estimates for
1981-90. Population Trends, No. 77, Autumn 1994. 33-6 pp. London,
England. In Eng.
"This article explains why revisions have recently
been made to population estimates for the 1980s, and describes briefly
how the revisions were made to both national and local estimates. A
summary analysis is given of the sizes of various revisions--for
example 0.4 per cent of the total 1991 national population in England
and Wales, and an average 2.5 per cent for corresponding estimates for
local authority districts."
Correspondence: B. Armitage,
Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, Population Statistics
Division, St. Catherine's House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10070 Bender,
Rosemary; Verma, Ravi B. P. Role of census coverage in
population estimation of local areas: a comparison between Canada and
the United States. In: Studies in applied demography, edited by K.
Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 273-87 pp. Bowling Green State
University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society Research
Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"In light of the possible
adjustments for census undercoverage to the population estimation
programs in Canada and the United States, this paper examines the
effects on the methodologies used to produce estimates of the total
population for local areas. The first section provides a brief
theoretical background. This is followed by an empirical analysis of
the effects of adjusting for census undercoverage on population
estimates for census divisions in Canada, where the level of census
undercoverage has increased, and for counties in the United States,
where undercoverage rates have decreased."
Correspondence:
R. Bender, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10071 Dyson,
Tim. On the demography of the 1991 census. Economic
and Political Weekly, Vol. 29, No. 51-52, Dec 17-24, 1994. 3,235-9 pp.
Bombay, India. In Eng.
An analysis of preliminary data from the
1991 census of India is presented. "India's true population size is
very much larger than is indicated by the census--and the
post-enumeration check results are a poor indicator of the true level
of underenumeration. While there has probably been considerable
fertility and mortality decline in India during the 1980s, it is much
less certain that the last decade has witnessed any reduction in the
rate of population growth. A picture of constant rate of population
growth between 1971-81 and 1981-91 is far more convincing--coupled with
a higher rate of all-India growth during the 1961-71 decade." The
author also suggests that it is unlikely that the relative mortality
experienced by females has deteriorated.
Location:
Princeton University Library (PF).
61:10072 Gruber,
Stefan; Riede, Thomas. First results of the microcensus of
April 1993. [Erste Ergebnisse des Mikrozensus April 1993.]
Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 7, Jul 1994. 518-33 pp. Wiesbaden,
Germany. In Ger.
Results of the April 1993 microcensus of Germany
are presented, together with some comparative data for 1991 and 1992.
Information is included on population growth, labor force
participation, income, and foreigners. Differences between former East
and West Germany are examined.
Location: Princeton
University Library (PF).
61:10073 Levy,
Michel L. Europe, a review. [L'Europe, aide-memoire.]
Population et Societes, No. 296, Dec 1994. 1-3 pp. Paris, France. In
Fre.
A selection of demographic data is presented for the 37
countries of Europe. They include total population size, density,
births, infant mortality, and an indicator of demographic
aging.
Correspondence: M. L. Levy, Institut National
d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14,
France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10074 Macau.
Direccao de Servicos de Estatistica e Censos (Macau).
Estimates of the resident population by sex and five-year age
groups, 1951-1991: projections of the resident population,
1990-2000. [Estimativas da populacao residente, por sexos e grupos
etarios quinquenais, 1951-1991: projeccoes da populacao residente,
1990-2000.] Apr 1994. 231 pp. Macau. In Chi; Por.
This report
presents population estimates for Macau. The first part concerns the
period 1951-1991 by age and sex, based on data from the 1991 census.
The second part presents population projections up to the year 2000,
also by age and sex.
Correspondence: Direccao de Servicos
de Estatistica e Censos, Documentation and Information Centre, Rua
Inacio Baptista 4D-6, 3o andar, Macau. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
61:10075 Merrick,
Thomas W. Population dynamics in developing
countries. In: Population and development: old debates, new
conclusions, edited by Robert Cassen. 1994. 79-105 pp. Transaction
Publishers: New Brunswick, New Jersey/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Developing countries are currently undergoing a massive surge in
population--a result of death rates declining earlier and faster than
birth rates....This chapter reviews current demographic trends and
explores the potential of public policies and programs to create
alternative demographic scenarios."
Correspondence: T. W.
Merrick, World Bank, Population, Health and Nutrition Department, 1818
H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
61:10076 Otto,
Johannes. World population--past developments and future
trends. [Weltbevolkerung--bisherige Entwicklungen, gegenwartige
Strukturen und zukunftige Trends.] Zeitschrift fur
Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 19, No. 3, 1993-1994. 323-63 pp.
Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The author
reviews past and possible future developments in world population.
Information is included on population size and growth, regional
distribution, total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth, mortality
differentials, infant and child mortality, age distribution, urban
population, international migration, and
refugees.
Correspondence: J. Otto, Bundesinstitut fur
Bevolkerungsforschung, 65180 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10077 Prevost,
Ron. State housing unit and household estimates: April 1,
1980, to July 1, 1993. Current Population Reports, Series P-25:
Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1123, Oct 1994. xi, 10 pp.
U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This report
presents estimates of households for the United States, regions, and
individual states for the period 1990-1993; it includes information on
age of householder as well as housing
estimates.
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office,
Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10078 Rees,
P. Estimating and projecting the populations of urban
communities. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 26, No. 11, Nov
1994. 1,671-97 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The author describes a
model for estimating and projecting the populations of communities
living in small areas within cities. The model provides a means of
updating the demographic inputs needed for projection between censuses
and means of developing scenarios of demographic change and housing
development. The method for estimating small-area populations between
censuses is evaluated with recently published 1991 [U.K.] Census data.
Single-year age-group detail is provided and the associated databases
are embedded in a flexible user interface. Illustrative projections
are discussed and interpreted for the northern English city of
Bradford....The model, although particular to districts of West
Yorkshire, has been specified in a general way and could be adapted for
use with any British district."
Correspondence: P. Rees,
University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England.
Location: Princeton University Library (UES).
61:10079
Shahidullah, Mohammed. An evaluation of the
accuracy of 1990 population estimates by age, sex and race for Florida
and its counties. In: Studies in applied demography, edited by K.
Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 109-19 pp. Bowling Green State
University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society Research
Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"In this paper we evaluate the
accuracy of the 1990 population estimates by age, sex and race for
Florida and its 67 counties....The findings...indicate that use of
vital records and Medicare data can improve age, sex and race estimates
for the youngest and oldest age groups. In a situation where
assumption on age specific birth rates for nonwhites is not reliable
the substitution of estimated births can help significantly to improve
the estimate for the youngest age group. We suspect that high
migration rates and census undercounts are responsible for high rates
of inaccuracy for estimates in the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups,
particularly for nonwhites."
Correspondence: M.
Shahidullah, University of Florida, College of Business Administration,
Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Gainesville, FL 32611.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10080 Stankovic,
Vladimir. The 1991 census and the current demographic
situation in Serbia. [Osvrt na neke vaznije rezultate popisa 1991.
i aktuelno demografsko stanje u Republici Srbiji.] Stanovnistvo, Vol.
30-31, 1992-1993. 178-82 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr.
Some of
the main results of the 1991 census of Yugoslavia are summarized,
focusing on data concerning Serbia. Recent demographic trends in
Serbia and its regions are described.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
61:10081 Steenkamp,
H. A. Population estimates for the RSA by magisterial
district and province, 1994. Research Report/Navorsingsverslag,
No. 212, ISBN 0-947459-55-3. 1994. ix, 80 pp. University of South
Africa, Bureau of Market Research: Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
Population estimates are presented for South Africa based on data
from the 1991 census. The estimates are presented by major population
group, province, metropolitan area, statistical region, and magisterial
district for 1991 and 1994.
Correspondence: University of
South Africa, Bureau of Market Research, Box 392, Pretoria 0001, South
Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10082 Tayman,
Jeff. Estimating population, housing and employment for
micro-geographic areas. In: Studies in applied demography, edited
by K. Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 101-7 pp. Bowling Green
State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society
Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"This paper described
procedures for developing current estimates of population, housing and
place-of-work employment for micro-geographic areas [in San Diego
County, California]. It demonstrates that with the proper technology
and innovative use of nontraditional data sources, it is possible to
estimate these activities for sub-census tract geographic areas. The
procedures represent an interdisciplinary approach to the problem,
blending the theory and methods from demography and
geography....Residential meter and wage and salary employer
address-level files allow a reasonably accurate determination of the
micro-geographic location of employment and residential
activities."
Correspondence: J. Tayman, San Diego
Association of Government, 401 B Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA
92101. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10083 Andrews,
William P. Facing the Malthusian threat: some
implications of the world population explosion. Mankind Quarterly,
Vol. 33, No. 1, Fall 1992. 121-6 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The
author examines the implications of current global population trends,
with the emphasis on qualitative as well as quantitative issues. He
shows that the projected population numbers will adversely affect the
quality of life within one generation, and that current demographic
trends will lead to a measurable decline in the intelligence of the
population of the United States during the twenty-first
century.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10084 Carnahan,
Douglas; Johnson, Patricia. Selection of migration rates
in local area population projections: metropolitan Boston as a case
study. In: Studies in applied demography, edited by K. Vaninadha
Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 29-49 pp. Bowling Green State University,
Department of Sociology, Population and Society Research Center:
Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"The present authors...were recently
faced with making new population age group projections for metropolitan
Boston. Our evaluation of possible assumptions about future
demographic and economic trends led us to identify local area
characteristics that could help us decide whether recent data is
appropriate to extend into the future....[We review] the changes in
demographic and economic conditions since 1970. After the review, we
return to the impact on migration during each of the [last two]
decades. This is followed by a discussion of the assumptions we made
about future trends and their influence on our projections. We
conclude by suggesting several guidelines for making local area
population projections."
Correspondence: D. Carnahan,
Metropolitan Area Planning Council, Metropolitan Data Center, Boston,
MA 02215. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10085 Deschamps,
Linda; Le Gleau, Jean-Pierre. What will regional
populations look like in 2015? [Quelle population pour les regions
en 2015?] Economie et Statistique, No. 274, 1994. 33-42, 93, 95, 97 pp.
Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Spa.
The authors
analyze the geographic implications for France of projected population
growth up to the year 2015. "There would be a higher concentration of
people in the Mediterranean and Paris area regions, while the Massif
Central and the North-East quarter of the country, with the exception
of Alsace, would see their populations fall. Migratory movements should
help the Paris area to best resist the general aging in France. The
fact that the Paris area attracts students and young working people
contributes to both its demographic growth and its youthfulness
compared with the rest of France. Conversely, the aging of the West
will escalate if the arrival of people around retirement age
continues."
Correspondence: L. Deschamps, Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Division Statistiques et
Etudes Regionales, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14,
France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10086 Dinh, Quang
Chi. The population of France up to 2050. [La
population de la France a l'horizon 2050.] Economie et Statistique, No.
274, 1994. 7-32, 93, 95, 97 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in
Eng; Ger; Spa.
Population projections are presented for France up
to the year 2050. Three alternative hypotheses concerning fertility
are included in the projections. The projections indicate that the
population will continue to grow in size up to the year 2020. At that
time, the population over age 60 will be larger both absolutely and
proportionately than the population under age
20.
Correspondence: Q. C. Dinh, Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Division des Enquetes et Etudes
Demographiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14,
France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10087 Ecuador.
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos [INEC] (Quito,
Ecuador). Ecuador: population projections by province,
canton, area, sex, and age-group. 1990-2000. [Ecuador:
proyecciones de poblacion por provincias, cantones, areas, sexo y
grupos de edad. Periodo 1990-2000.] Aug 1994. 101 pp. Quito, Ecuador.
In Spa.
Population projections are presented for Ecuador up to the
year 2000. The projections are given by sex and age group by province,
area, and rural and urban canton. Data are mainly from the 1982 and
1990 censuses.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de
Estadistica y Censos, Avenida 10 de Agosto 229, Edificio San Luis,
Quito, Ecuador. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10088 Gowariker,
Vasant. Demographic transition in India. Economic and
Political Weekly, Vol. 29, No. 49, Dec 3, 1994. 3,106-8 pp. Bombay,
India. In Eng.
The author responds to a critique by K. C. Seal and
P. P. Talwar of his suggestion that the population of India will be
substantially lower than is indicated in most recent projections. He
continues to maintain that India's population will not exceed China's
in size, and that India is on the verge of achieving its goal of
controlling population growth.
For the article by Seal and Talwar,
also published in 1994, see elsewhere in this issue.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
61:10089 Hirschman,
Charles. The meaning of race and ethnic population
projections. Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper, No.
94-4, Apr 1994. 33 pp. University of Washington, Seattle Population
Research Center: Seattle, Washington; Battelle Seattle Research Center:
Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"In this essay, I question the
technical bases and conventional interpretation of the long-term
projections of the U.S. population by race and
ethnicity."
Correspondence: Seattle Population Research
Center, c/o University of Washington, Center for Studies in Demography
and Ecology Library, Department of Sociology DK-40, Seattle, WA 98195.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10090 Lee, Ronald
D.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad. Stochastic population forecasts
for the United States: beyond high, medium, and low. JASA:
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 89, No. 428, Dec
1994. 1,175-89 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This article
presents and implements a new method for making stochastic population
forecasts that provide consistent probability intervals. We blend
mathematical demography and statistical time series methods to estimate
stochastic models of fertility and mortality based on U.S. data back to
1900 and then use the theory of random-matrix products to forecast
various demographic measures and their associated probability intervals
to the year 2065. Our expected total population sizes agree quite
closely with the Census medium projections, and our 95 percent
probability intervals are close to the Census high and low scenarios.
But Census intervals in 2065 for ages 65+ are nearly three times as
broad as ours, and for 85+ are nearly twice as broad. In contrast, our
intervals for the total dependency and youth dependency ratios are more
than twice as broad as theirs, and our ratio for the elderly dependency
ratio is 12 times as great as theirs. These items have major
implications for policy, and these contrasting indications of
uncertainty clearly show the limitations of the conventional
scenario-based methods."
Correspondence: R. D. Lee,
University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont
Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University
Library (SM).
61:10091 Norway.
Statistisk Sentralbyra (Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway).
Population projections, 1993-2050: national and regional
figures. [Framskriving av folkemengden, 1993-2050: nasjonale og
regionale tall.] Norges Offisielle Statistikk/Official Statistics of
Norway, No. C 176, ISBN 82-537-4047-6. 1994. 166 pp. Oslo-Kongsvinger,
Norway. In Nor. with sum. in Eng.
Population projections are
presented for Norway by age, sex, and region. "The new projections
cover the period up to 2050 for the country as a whole and for
counties, whereas results at the municipal level have only been
computed up to 2020. This publication presents county data up to 2030
only...."
Correspondence: Statistisk Sentralbyra, P.B. 8131
Dep., 0033 Oslo 1, Norway. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
61:10092
Ramachandran, P. Multiregional projection model
and its application to India. In: Studies in applied demography,
edited by K. Vaninadha Rao and Jerry W. Wicks. 1994. 51-63 pp. Bowling
Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society
Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"This paper begins
with the development of a multiregional demographic model for
population projections and its extension. Section 2 describes briefly
the multiregional projection model. Section 3 discusses the
application and use of models with incomplete data to India. Section 4
presents the issues relating to the application of the model to
developing countries."
Correspondence: P. Ramachandran, Sri
Venkateswara University, Department of Population Studies, Tirupati 517
502, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10093 Romaniuc,
Anatole. Reflection on population forecasting: from
prediction to prospective analysis. Canadian Studies in
Population, Vol. 21, No. 2, 1994. 165-80 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng.
with sum. in Fre.
"The notion of predictability, central to the
conventional meaning given to projection, is de-emphasized, and that of
analytical credibility stressed. The usefulness of a projection is to
be judged by the extent to which it contributes to decisions shaping
the future. The author explores the epistemological base for this
reconceptualization of the projection as an instrument of 'creating'
rather than 'discovering' the future. To this end, he turns to the
contemporary developments in the philosophy of
science."
Correspondence: A. Romaniuc, University of
Alberta, Department of Sociology, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2HA, Canada.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10094 Seal, K.
C.; Talwar, P. P. The billion plus population: another
dimension. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 29, No. 36, Sep 3,
1994. 2,344-7 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
The authors present a
critique of a recent study by Vasant Gowariker, in which it was
suggested that the population of India will be substantially lower than
indicated in most current projections. "The study focuses attention on
(a) plausible levels of the vital rates in the future, (b) realistic
time horizon for attaining the replacement level fertility (NRR = 1.0),
and (c) likely population size by 2000 AD. Some comments are also
offered on the validity of Gowariker's assessment that India's
population will never exceed China's population."
Location:
Princeton University Library (PF).
61:10095 Shaw,
Chris. Accuracy and uncertainty of the national population
projections for the United Kingdom. Population Trends, No. 77,
Autumn 1994. 24-32 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This article
considers how accurate recent national population projections for the
United Kingdom, made since 1971, have turned out to be. The overall
size of the population has generally been forecast fairly accurately,
although this often turns out to have been a consequence of
compensating errors in the projections of births, deaths, and migrants.
Fertility has tended to be overestimated, mortality assumptions have
been too pessimistic, and net migration into the United Kingdom has
consistently been underestimated. However, there is evidence that the
accuracy, at least over the short-term, has improved in more recent
projections. The article also discusses 'variant' projections, the
traditional method of illustrating uncertainty in national population
projections."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
61:10096 Sommer,
Bettina. Population trends up to 2040. [Entwicklung
der Bevolkerung bis 2040.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 7, Jul 1994.
497-503 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Population projections for
Germany are presented for the period 1993-2040 using three different
variants. The projections are the eighth in a series carried out by
the state statistical offices and coordinated by the Federal
Statistical Office. Assumptions are first discussed, and then results
are provided for Germany as a whole and for former East and West
Germany. Special attention is given to changes in age
structure.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
61:10097 Zaire.
Institut National de la Statistique (Kinshasa, Zaire).
Scientific population census, 1984. Population projections for
Zaire and its regions, 1984-2000. [Recensement scientific de la
population, 1984. Projections demographiques, Zaire et regions,
1984-2000.] 1993. 56, [3] pp. Kinshasa, Zaire. In Fre.
Population
projections are presented for Zaire and its regions up to the year
2000. Data are from the 1984 census.
Correspondence:
Institut National de la Statistique, Ministere du Plan et Amenagement
du Territoire, Kinshasa, Zaire. Location: New York Public
Library, New York, NY.
61:10098 Coulibaly,
Sidiki; Samson, Lamleen B. Can population grow forever in
Africa? Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 19, No. 3,
1993-1994. 282-90 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Eng.
"Is
it...possible...to slow down...population growth in Africa? The paper
will first try to describe the facts, [focusing on the] African
population situation compared to the rest of the world....Then we will
try to show why the trends of growth may be sustained in Africa for a
certain length of time, and thirdly why the trends of growth may not be
sustained."
Correspondence: L. B. Samson, Institut de
Formation et de Recherche Demographiques, B.P. 1556, Yaounde, Cameroon.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
