60:40783 Aliaga,
Alfredo; Muhuri, Pradip K. Methods of estimating
contraceptive prevalence rates for small areas: applications in the
Dominican Republic and Kenya. DHS Methodological Report, No. 3,
Jun 1994. iv, 19 pp. Macro International, Demographic and Health
Surveys [DHS]: Calverton, Maryland. In Eng.
Problems involved in
generating estimates of basic demographic indicators for small areas
from data collected in national surveys are examined, with particular
reference to the Demographic and Health Surveys that have been carried
out in many developing countries. "This paper examines the suitability
of two methods for calculating indirect estimates--the synthetic
estimation procedure and the regression-based procedure....Estimates of
contraceptive prevalence rates are provided for 30 provinces of the
Dominican Republic and 32 districts of Kenya using the synthetic and
regression methods. These are then compared with the results from the
direct estimation procedure. It was found, after carrying out this
comparison, that the regression approach is more suitable than the
synthetic approach as a indirect method for estimating the prevalence
of contraceptive use."
Correspondence: Macro International,
Demographic and Health Surveys, 11785 Beltsville Drive, Suite 300,
Calverton, MD 20705-3119. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
60:40784 Courgeau,
Daniel; Lelievre, Eva. Competing risks and independence:
a theoretical framework for reflection. [Risques competitifs et
independance: cadre theorique d'une reflexion.] Population, Vol. 49,
No. 2, Mar-Apr 1994. 482-98 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The authors
critically examine an article by Xavier Thierry concerning the
difficulty involved in analyzing current trends in nuptiality, and draw
some parallels with their own work in the area of event history
analysis. A comment by Patrick Festy is also included (pp.
490-98).
For the article by Thierry, published in 1993, see
60:10386.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:40785 Duncan, S.
R.; Scott, Susan; Duncan, C. J. Determination of a
feedback vector that generates a non-decaying oscillation in a model
population. Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol. 167, 1994. 67-71
pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The parish registers of Penrith,
Cumbria, [England] have previously been used to provide the records of
a model population of value to theoretical population biologists,
particularly in the determination of oscillations and computer
modelling. The registers contain information on named individuals, so
permitting the extraction of further information of the population
dynamics of the community. The derivation of a feedback vector by
Ackerman's pole placement technique illustrates the expected
age-specific gains/losses to the female breeding population (by
immigration/emigration and by unmarried women) for any deviation from
the steady-state population level to maintain the long-wavelength
oscillations in births and deaths."
Correspondence: C. J.
Duncan, University of Liverpool, Department of Environmental and
Evolutionary Biology, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool L69 3BX, England.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:40786 Griffith,
Daniel A.; Haining, Robert; Arbia, Giuseppe. Heterogeneity
of attribute sampling error in spatial data sets. Geographical
Analysis, Vol. 26, No. 4, Oct 1994. 300-20 pp. Columbus, Ohio. In Eng.
"This paper considers the standard error of the estimate of the
mean of a spatially correlated variable in the case where data are
obtained by a process of random sampling. Two distinct mean estimation
problems are identified: estimating the area mean and estimating the
population mean. Methods are described for obtaining standard error
estimates in the two cases and, within the limits of publicly available
information, the methods are implemented on average household income
data at the census tract scale for Syracuse, New York. The purpose of
the paper is to draw attention to issues of data precision in relation
to sampled geographic information on averages and in particular to
consider the problems of estimating standard errors using such data.
The paper also examines the extent to which standard errors vary
between census tracts."
Correspondence: D. A. Griffith,
Syracuse University, Department of Geography, Syracuse, NY 13244.
Location: Princeton University Library (UES).
60:40787 Keilman,
Nico. Translation formulae for non-repeatable events.
Population Studies, Vol. 48, No. 2, Jul 1994. 341-57 pp. London,
England. In Eng.
"Ryder's translation expressions for repeatable
events are extended to the case of non-repeatable events....The degree
of distributional distortion (that is, the upward or downward shift in
cohort quantum caused by changes in the period age pattern), given a
set of occurrence-exposure rates, is generally less for non-repeatable
than for repeatable events in this case, in particular at high quantum
levels. Furthermore, it is found that when period tempo is constant
over time, and period quantum falls linearly, period quantum
underestimates cohort quantum for high period quantum levels, and
overestimates it for low period quantum levels....Numerical
illustrations were computed for first marriages of Norwegian males for
the period 1961-90."
Correspondence: N. Keilman, Central
Bureau of Statistics, Section for Demography and Analysis of Living
Conditions, P.O. Box 8131 Dep., 0033 Oslo 1, Norway. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:40788 Knodel,
John. Using qualitative data for understanding old age
security and fertility. Population Studies Center Research Report,
No. 93-299, Dec 1993. 30 pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies
Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This paper considers the
contribution that qualitative data generated through the focus group
method might contribute to our understanding of the old [age] security
motive and fertility relationship. The primary example used to
illustrate this comes from Thailand and centers around the question of
how Thai fertility could have declined so sharply in only a few decades
while expectations from children regarding assistance in later years
remained intact."
Correspondence: University of Michigan,
Population Studies Center, 1225 South University, Ann Arbor, MI
48109-1070. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:40789 Morocco.
Direction de la Statistique. Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches
Demographiques [CERED] (Rabat, Morocco). The basic
statistics for constructing the INMA model. [Les donnees de base
pour la construction du modele INMA.] Etudes Demographiques, 1994. 305
pp. Rabat, Morocco. In Fre.
This work describes the INMA model,
developed using data from Morocco for the period 1982-1992 to show the
relationship between demographic factors and social and economic
factors concerning development. The INMA model consists of four
sub-models dealing with population dynamics, macroeconomic factors,
education, and health and family planning.
Correspondence:
Direction de la Statistique, Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches
Demographiques, B.P. 178, Rue Mohamed Belhassan, El Ouazzani-Haut
Agdal, Rabat, Morocco. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
60:40790 Rodriguez,
German. Statistical issues in the analysis of reproductive
histories using hazard models. In: Human reproductive ecology:
interactions of environment, fertility, and behavior, edited by Kenneth
L. Campbell and James W. Wood. Annals of the New York Academy of
Sciences, Vol. 709, 1994. 266-79 pp. New York Academy of Sciences: New
York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper is a highly selective review of
statistical issues that arise in the application of hazard models to
the analysis of reproductive histories, focusing largely on the need to
make explicit provision in the models for unobserved sources of
heterogeneity....[The author presents] a set of propositions that are
closer in spirit to practical recommendations than to formal theorems.
We will comment specifically on issues of model identification,
sensitivity to assumptions and goodness of
fit."
Correspondence: G. Rodriguez, Princeton University,
Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ
08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).
60:40791 Ruzicka,
Lado T. Progress in demographic methodology. Journal
of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 11, No. 1, May 1994.
21-31 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper examines
developments in demographic methodology during the past decade or so.
It focuses on methodological advances in the analysis of mortality of
infants and young children, of adults, and on problems of mortality
estimation in small populations. The other major areas reviewed here
are related to the study of birth intervals, parity progression,
proximate determinants of fertility, and the demography of the family.
Concluding remarks relate the methodological issues to the information
explosion in demography."
Correspondence: L. T. Ruzicka,
Australian National University, National Centre for Development
Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
