Volume 60 - Number 4 - Winter 1994

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

60:40783 Aliaga, Alfredo; Muhuri, Pradip K. Methods of estimating contraceptive prevalence rates for small areas: applications in the Dominican Republic and Kenya. DHS Methodological Report, No. 3, Jun 1994. iv, 19 pp. Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Calverton, Maryland. In Eng.
Problems involved in generating estimates of basic demographic indicators for small areas from data collected in national surveys are examined, with particular reference to the Demographic and Health Surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. "This paper examines the suitability of two methods for calculating indirect estimates--the synthetic estimation procedure and the regression-based procedure....Estimates of contraceptive prevalence rates are provided for 30 provinces of the Dominican Republic and 32 districts of Kenya using the synthetic and regression methods. These are then compared with the results from the direct estimation procedure. It was found, after carrying out this comparison, that the regression approach is more suitable than the synthetic approach as a indirect method for estimating the prevalence of contraceptive use."
Correspondence: Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys, 11785 Beltsville Drive, Suite 300, Calverton, MD 20705-3119. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:40784 Courgeau, Daniel; Lelievre, Eva. Competing risks and independence: a theoretical framework for reflection. [Risques competitifs et independance: cadre theorique d'une reflexion.] Population, Vol. 49, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1994. 482-98 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The authors critically examine an article by Xavier Thierry concerning the difficulty involved in analyzing current trends in nuptiality, and draw some parallels with their own work in the area of event history analysis. A comment by Patrick Festy is also included (pp. 490-98).
For the article by Thierry, published in 1993, see 60:10386.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:40785 Duncan, S. R.; Scott, Susan; Duncan, C. J. Determination of a feedback vector that generates a non-decaying oscillation in a model population. Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol. 167, 1994. 67-71 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The parish registers of Penrith, Cumbria, [England] have previously been used to provide the records of a model population of value to theoretical population biologists, particularly in the determination of oscillations and computer modelling. The registers contain information on named individuals, so permitting the extraction of further information of the population dynamics of the community. The derivation of a feedback vector by Ackerman's pole placement technique illustrates the expected age-specific gains/losses to the female breeding population (by immigration/emigration and by unmarried women) for any deviation from the steady-state population level to maintain the long-wavelength oscillations in births and deaths."
Correspondence: C. J. Duncan, University of Liverpool, Department of Environmental and Evolutionary Biology, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool L69 3BX, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:40786 Griffith, Daniel A.; Haining, Robert; Arbia, Giuseppe. Heterogeneity of attribute sampling error in spatial data sets. Geographical Analysis, Vol. 26, No. 4, Oct 1994. 300-20 pp. Columbus, Ohio. In Eng.
"This paper considers the standard error of the estimate of the mean of a spatially correlated variable in the case where data are obtained by a process of random sampling. Two distinct mean estimation problems are identified: estimating the area mean and estimating the population mean. Methods are described for obtaining standard error estimates in the two cases and, within the limits of publicly available information, the methods are implemented on average household income data at the census tract scale for Syracuse, New York. The purpose of the paper is to draw attention to issues of data precision in relation to sampled geographic information on averages and in particular to consider the problems of estimating standard errors using such data. The paper also examines the extent to which standard errors vary between census tracts."
Correspondence: D. A. Griffith, Syracuse University, Department of Geography, Syracuse, NY 13244. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

60:40787 Keilman, Nico. Translation formulae for non-repeatable events. Population Studies, Vol. 48, No. 2, Jul 1994. 341-57 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Ryder's translation expressions for repeatable events are extended to the case of non-repeatable events....The degree of distributional distortion (that is, the upward or downward shift in cohort quantum caused by changes in the period age pattern), given a set of occurrence-exposure rates, is generally less for non-repeatable than for repeatable events in this case, in particular at high quantum levels. Furthermore, it is found that when period tempo is constant over time, and period quantum falls linearly, period quantum underestimates cohort quantum for high period quantum levels, and overestimates it for low period quantum levels....Numerical illustrations were computed for first marriages of Norwegian males for the period 1961-90."
Correspondence: N. Keilman, Central Bureau of Statistics, Section for Demography and Analysis of Living Conditions, P.O. Box 8131 Dep., 0033 Oslo 1, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:40788 Knodel, John. Using qualitative data for understanding old age security and fertility. Population Studies Center Research Report, No. 93-299, Dec 1993. 30 pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This paper considers the contribution that qualitative data generated through the focus group method might contribute to our understanding of the old [age] security motive and fertility relationship. The primary example used to illustrate this comes from Thailand and centers around the question of how Thai fertility could have declined so sharply in only a few decades while expectations from children regarding assistance in later years remained intact."
Correspondence: University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1070. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:40789 Morocco. Direction de la Statistique. Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Demographiques [CERED] (Rabat, Morocco). The basic statistics for constructing the INMA model. [Les donnees de base pour la construction du modele INMA.] Etudes Demographiques, 1994. 305 pp. Rabat, Morocco. In Fre.
This work describes the INMA model, developed using data from Morocco for the period 1982-1992 to show the relationship between demographic factors and social and economic factors concerning development. The INMA model consists of four sub-models dealing with population dynamics, macroeconomic factors, education, and health and family planning.
Correspondence: Direction de la Statistique, Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Demographiques, B.P. 178, Rue Mohamed Belhassan, El Ouazzani-Haut Agdal, Rabat, Morocco. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:40790 Rodriguez, German. Statistical issues in the analysis of reproductive histories using hazard models. In: Human reproductive ecology: interactions of environment, fertility, and behavior, edited by Kenneth L. Campbell and James W. Wood. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol. 709, 1994. 266-79 pp. New York Academy of Sciences: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper is a highly selective review of statistical issues that arise in the application of hazard models to the analysis of reproductive histories, focusing largely on the need to make explicit provision in the models for unobserved sources of heterogeneity....[The author presents] a set of propositions that are closer in spirit to practical recommendations than to formal theorems. We will comment specifically on issues of model identification, sensitivity to assumptions and goodness of fit."
Correspondence: G. Rodriguez, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

60:40791 Ruzicka, Lado T. Progress in demographic methodology. Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 11, No. 1, May 1994. 21-31 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper examines developments in demographic methodology during the past decade or so. It focuses on methodological advances in the analysis of mortality of infants and young children, of adults, and on problems of mortality estimation in small populations. The other major areas reviewed here are related to the study of birth intervals, parity progression, proximate determinants of fertility, and the demography of the family. Concluding remarks relate the methodological issues to the information explosion in demography."
Correspondence: L. T. Ruzicka, Australian National University, National Centre for Development Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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