60:30746 Arriaga,
Eduardo E.; Johnson, Peter D.; Jamison, Ellen. Techniques
for evaluating completeness of death reporting. IIVRS Technical
Paper, No. 57, Jun 1994. 15 pp. International Institute for Vital
Registration and Statistics [IIVRS]: Bethesda, Maryland. In Eng.
"This paper presents a number of techniques for evaluating and
adjusting data on deaths by age and sex for both missed events
(incomplete coverage) and for misreporting of age. In addition to a
description of the techniques, computer programs are described which
may be used to carry out the required calculations." The geographical
scope is worldwide with a focus on developing
countries.
Correspondence: International Institute for
Vital Registration and Statistics, 9650 Rockville Pike, Bethesda, MD
20814-3998. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30747 Bender,
Deborah E.; Ewbank, Douglas. The focus group as a tool for
health research: issues in design and analysis. Health Transition
Review, Vol. 4, No. 1, Apr 1994. 63-80 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper presents detailed methodology for the conduct of focus
groups and analysis of focus-group data with the intention of improving
its use among researchers and health-care professionals. Data from two
studies, immunization compliance in West Africa, and barriers to use of
prenatal-care services in Bolivia, are used as illustrative
examples."
Correspondence: D. E. Bender, University of
North Carolina, School of Public Health, Department of Health Policy
and Administration, Chapel Hill, NC 27599. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30748
Bocquet-Appel, J.-P. The detection of the rupture
zones of spatialized demographical variables. In: International
Population Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal
1993, Volume 3. 1993. 259-68 pp. International Union for the Scientific
Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"In this
paper, I will first introduce a method for the detection of the zones
of abrupt change of spatialized variables, originally conceived in the
frame for research on the biology of population, and christened
generalized Wombling....This method can be used to identify the zones
of rupture of demographic variables and of any spatialized variables in
general. Then, as an example, I will perform a generalized Wombling to
identify the zones of rupture of real (the local mobility in France
around 1900) and simulated data representing a set of uncorrelated and
correlated variables."
Correspondence: J.-P. Bocquet-Appel,
Centre National de la Recherche Scientific, URA 49, Laboratoire
d'Anthropologie, Musee de l'Homme, Paris, France. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30749 Capasso,
Vincenzo. Mathematical structures of epidemic
systems. Lecture Notes in Biomathematics, No. 97, ISBN
3-540-56526-4. 1993. xiv, 283 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New
York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
This work concerns the dynamics of
infectious diseases. The author presents a framework for organizing
the diverse mathematical models that have been developed to study these
dynamics. He develops the general mathematical theory and considers a
broad range of examples that can be treated within the frameworks
described. Some consideration is given to HIV infections and AIDS as a
case study.
Correspondence: Springer-Verlag, Heidelberger
Platz 3, 1000 Berlin 33, Germany. Location: Princeton
University Library (SZ).
60:30750
Castillo-Chavez, Carlos; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge X.; Fridman,
Samuel. Modeling contact structures in biology.
Population and Development Program Working Paper Series, No. 93.03,
[1993]. 23, [5] pp. Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology,
Population and Development Program: Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
This
study concerns the modeling of contacts between individuals in
epidemiological studies. The authors "review briefly our mixing/pair
formation framework and illustrate its application to population models
of the type currently used in demography, epidemiology, and social
dynamics. A new application to frequency dependent competitive
interactions is discussed in more detail. Connections between
deterministic and stochastic processes are presented. The results of
the simulations of a demographic two-sex stochastic model that follows
the dynamics of pairs are presented."
Correspondence:
Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and
Development Program, 134 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30751
Castillo-Chavez, Carlos; Fridman, Samuel; Luo,
Xiaolong. Stochastic and deterministic models in
epidemiology. Population and Development Program Working Paper
Series, No. 93.02, [1993]. 15 pp. Cornell University, Department of
Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program: Ithaca, New York.
In Eng.
"This article explores the relationship between stochastic
and deterministic models in demography and epidemiology. We conduct a
large number of simulations of our stochastic demographic
pair-formation model and concentrate on the average behavior of the
model and its variability. We provide an outline of future work in
this area."
Correspondence: Cornell University, Department
of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program, 134 Warren
Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
60:30752 Hoem, Jan
M. Event-history analysis in demography. Classical
demographic methods of analysis and modern event-history
techniques. In: International Population Conference/Congres
International de la Population: Montreal 1993, Volume 3. 1993. 281-91
pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]:
Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"My purpose is to display the links between
some classical methods of demographic analysis and their modern
generalizations in event-history analysis. I will do so mostly by
means of illustrative examples....[I] will outline the connections
between life-table and standardization techniques on the one hand, and
event-history analysis on the other." Marital status and fertility
data for Sweden are used to illustrate.
Correspondence: J.
M. Hoem, Stockholm University, Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm,
Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30753 Ingram,
Deborah D.; Makuc, Diane M. Statistical issues in
analyzing the NHANES I epidemiologic followup study. Vital and
Health Statistics, Series 2: Data Evaluation and Methods Research, No.
121, Pub. Order No. DHHS (PHS) 94-1395. ISBN 0-8406-0487-4. LC
93-46586. May 1994. iv, 30 pp. U.S. National Center for Health
Statistics [NCHS]: Hyattsville, Maryland. In Eng.
"This report
presents alternative strategies for analysis of data from the NHANES I
Epidemiological Followup Study (NHEFS) using Cox proportional hazards
and person-time logistic regression models. Analytic issues related to
the complex survey design of the NHANES I and the variable length of
followup of NHEFS participants are
discussed."
Correspondence: U.S. National Center for Health
Statistics, 6525 Belcrest Road, Hyattsville, MD 20782.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30754 Khlat,
Myriam. Use of case-control methods for indirect
estimation in demography. Epidemiologic Reviews, Vol. 16, No. 1,
1994. 124-33 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
The author examines
the applicability of case-control methods to demographic studies and
finds that "of the numerous epidemiologic research strategies,
case-control studies are of particular interest whenever direct
estimation of demographic indices is questionable. I shall elaborate
upon two applications...,in order to demonstrate the usefulness of the
case-control method for better investigation of mortality rates and
differentials in various contexts." The geographical scope is
worldwide, with a focus on developing
countries.
Correspondence: M. Khlat, Institut National
d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14,
France. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).
60:30755 Lancaster,
Tony. The analysis of panel data: statistics versus
econometrics. PSTC Working Paper Series, No. 94-02, Apr 1994. 13
pp. Brown University, Population Studies and Training Center [PSTC]:
Providence, Rhode Island. In Eng.
"In this paper I propose to
discuss the econometrician's approach to panel data and the relevance
of standard statistical tools to the work of the econometrician....I
will build my discussion around an example of panel data in which the
units of observations are firms and the data are the inputs and outputs
of each firm in each time period in which it is under
observation."
Correspondence: Brown University, Population
Studies and Training Center, Box 1916, Providence, RI 02912.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30756 Larson,
Ann; Stevens, Adele; Wardlaw, Grant. Indirect estimates of
"hidden" populations: capture-recapture methods to estimate the
numbers of heroin users in the Australian Capital Territory.
Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 39, No. 6, Sep 1994. 823-31 pp.
Tarrytown, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper describes
a method of estimating the size of a population based on matching the
individuals from the population appearing in two or more nonrandom
samples....The method is applied to a data set of heroin users seeking
treatment or counselling or arrested on drug charges in 1988 or 1989 in
a small Australian city....Although estimates produced by this method
should be validated with other techniques it provides a simple, quick
method to estimate the numbers of people in other hidden populations
which are difficult to access."
Correspondence: A. Larson,
University of Queensland Medical School, Tropical Health Program,
Herston Road, Herston, Queensland 4006, Australia. Location:
Princeton University Library (PR).
60:30757 Lubkin, S.;
Castillo-Chavez, Carlos. A pair formation approach to
modeling inheritance of social traits. Population and Development
Program Working Paper Series, No. 93.12, [1993]. 8 pp. Cornell
University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development
Program: Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
"Transmission of cultural traits
behaves superficially like genetic transmission, but is substantially
more complicated, since transmission is influenced by the population at
large, as is disease transmission. We present a framework for modeling
cultural transmission by a system of ordinary differential equations,
with nonlinearities both in the transmission and in the formation of
pairs....Our objective here is to illustrate the use of our axiomatic
approach for the construction of dynamic models that may prove useful
in the study of the propagation or survival of social traits such as
religion and language."
Correspondence: Cornell University,
Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program, 134
Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
60:30758 Manton,
Kenneth G.; Stallard, Eric; Woodbury, Max A.; Dowd, J. Ed.
Time-varying covariates in models of human mortality and aging:
multidimensional generalizations of the Gompertz. Journal of
Gerontology: Biological Sciences, Vol. 49, No. 4, Jul 1994. B169-90
pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Models of mortality and aging depend
on assumptions about physiological change even if they are not made
explicit. Standard models, like the Gompertz, often fail to describe
mortality at extreme ages, suggesting a need for biologically more
detailed and flexible models. One solution is to model the interaction
of time-varying covariates with mortality to better describe the age
dependence of mortality, test hypotheses about the relation of
physiological change and mortality, and use longitudinal data to
generalize assumptions about physiological change. This model is
applied to (a) a 34-year follow-up of risk factors and mortality and
(b) a 9.5-year follow-up of function and mortality from longitudinal
surveys of the U.S. elderly population."
Correspondence: K.
G. Manton, Duke University, Center for Demographic Studies, 2117 Campus
Drive, Durham, NC 27706. Location: Princeton University
Library (SW).
60:30759 Mitra,
S. Derivations of complex roots of a stable model for a
special distribution of net maternity rates: an alternative
method. Janasamkhya, Vol. 9, No. 1-2, Jun 1991. 1-14 pp.
Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"Several mathematical models
representing the age distribution of net maternity rate p(x)
have...tried in the past [to] generate estimates of the parameters of a
stable population model....In an earlier paper, Mitra and Levin (1990)
experimented with a generalized model....Among other things, that model
generated a pair of nonlinear equations from which the intrinsic roots,
real as well as complex, had to be solved. The purpose of this paper
is to present an alternative method of solving the same pair of
equations which reveals another set of interesting features
characteristic of this different approach."
Correspondence:
S. Mitra, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30760 Schmitz,
Shu-Fang H.; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos. Completion of mixing
matrices for non-closed social networks. Population and
Development Program Working Paper Series, No. 93.16, [1993]. 11 pp.
Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and
Development Program: Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
The contact
structure of a population is modeled in such a way as to allow
partnerships between members of that population and also with
individuals from other populations. The data concern a population of
college students. The focus is on the relevance for sexual disease
transmission.
Correspondence: Cornell University,
Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program, 134
Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
60:30761 Schoen,
Robert; Kim, Young J. Cyclically stable populations.
Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 4, No. 4, 1994. 283-95 pp. New
York, New York/Yverdon, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper examines cyclically stable populations, models where
the schedules of vital rates change over time but where there is a
sequence of rate schedules that repeats itself indefinitely....The
present paper extends previous work by offering a new algebraic
representation of cyclically stable models, by deriving some additional
relationships that hold in those models, and by providing an
application of cyclical stationarity to contemporary U.S.
experience."
This is a revised version of a paper originally
presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of
America.
Correspondence: R. Schoen, Johns Hopkins
University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Department of
Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30762 Schoen,
Robert; Kim, Young J. Modelling the effects of group
identification on group survival. In: International Population
Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal 1993,
Volume 3. 1993. 113-20 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study
of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"There is increasing
awareness that the size and composition of minority populations may be
influenced by the group affiliations of persons with multiple
heritages. Here, a model population with two distinct groups is used
to analyze how group survival and group size are affected by the extent
of intergroup fertility and by the group identification of intergroup
births....[It is found that] group identification plays a key role in
the dynamics of multigroup populations."
Correspondence: R.
Schoen, Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health,
Department of Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore,
MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30763 Thomas, R.
W. Forecasting global HIV-AIDS dynamics: modelling
strategies and preliminary simulations. Environment and Planning
A, Vol. 26, No. 7, Jul 1994. 1,147-66 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In the light of the considerable biomathematical effort devoted to
building models of the incidence of HIV and AIDS in communities, in
this paper a multiregion specification is developed that includes a
parsimonious cross-infection mechanism where high-risk and low-risk
populations are distinguished by their promiscuity rates. The nature
of this mixing is compared with some existing modelling formats, and
some preliminary simulations are presented for the timing and spread of
the epidemic in a sixteen-city global
system."
Correspondence: R. W. Thomas, University of
Manchester, School of Geography, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL,
England. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).
