Volume 60 - Number 3 - Fall 1994

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

60:30746 Arriaga, Eduardo E.; Johnson, Peter D.; Jamison, Ellen. Techniques for evaluating completeness of death reporting. IIVRS Technical Paper, No. 57, Jun 1994. 15 pp. International Institute for Vital Registration and Statistics [IIVRS]: Bethesda, Maryland. In Eng.
"This paper presents a number of techniques for evaluating and adjusting data on deaths by age and sex for both missed events (incomplete coverage) and for misreporting of age. In addition to a description of the techniques, computer programs are described which may be used to carry out the required calculations." The geographical scope is worldwide with a focus on developing countries.
Correspondence: International Institute for Vital Registration and Statistics, 9650 Rockville Pike, Bethesda, MD 20814-3998. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30747 Bender, Deborah E.; Ewbank, Douglas. The focus group as a tool for health research: issues in design and analysis. Health Transition Review, Vol. 4, No. 1, Apr 1994. 63-80 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper presents detailed methodology for the conduct of focus groups and analysis of focus-group data with the intention of improving its use among researchers and health-care professionals. Data from two studies, immunization compliance in West Africa, and barriers to use of prenatal-care services in Bolivia, are used as illustrative examples."
Correspondence: D. E. Bender, University of North Carolina, School of Public Health, Department of Health Policy and Administration, Chapel Hill, NC 27599. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30748 Bocquet-Appel, J.-P. The detection of the rupture zones of spatialized demographical variables. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal 1993, Volume 3. 1993. 259-68 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"In this paper, I will first introduce a method for the detection of the zones of abrupt change of spatialized variables, originally conceived in the frame for research on the biology of population, and christened generalized Wombling....This method can be used to identify the zones of rupture of demographic variables and of any spatialized variables in general. Then, as an example, I will perform a generalized Wombling to identify the zones of rupture of real (the local mobility in France around 1900) and simulated data representing a set of uncorrelated and correlated variables."
Correspondence: J.-P. Bocquet-Appel, Centre National de la Recherche Scientific, URA 49, Laboratoire d'Anthropologie, Musee de l'Homme, Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30749 Capasso, Vincenzo. Mathematical structures of epidemic systems. Lecture Notes in Biomathematics, No. 97, ISBN 3-540-56526-4. 1993. xiv, 283 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
This work concerns the dynamics of infectious diseases. The author presents a framework for organizing the diverse mathematical models that have been developed to study these dynamics. He develops the general mathematical theory and considers a broad range of examples that can be treated within the frameworks described. Some consideration is given to HIV infections and AIDS as a case study.
Correspondence: Springer-Verlag, Heidelberger Platz 3, 1000 Berlin 33, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

60:30750 Castillo-Chavez, Carlos; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge X.; Fridman, Samuel. Modeling contact structures in biology. Population and Development Program Working Paper Series, No. 93.03, [1993]. 23, [5] pp. Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program: Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
This study concerns the modeling of contacts between individuals in epidemiological studies. The authors "review briefly our mixing/pair formation framework and illustrate its application to population models of the type currently used in demography, epidemiology, and social dynamics. A new application to frequency dependent competitive interactions is discussed in more detail. Connections between deterministic and stochastic processes are presented. The results of the simulations of a demographic two-sex stochastic model that follows the dynamics of pairs are presented."
Correspondence: Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program, 134 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30751 Castillo-Chavez, Carlos; Fridman, Samuel; Luo, Xiaolong. Stochastic and deterministic models in epidemiology. Population and Development Program Working Paper Series, No. 93.02, [1993]. 15 pp. Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program: Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
"This article explores the relationship between stochastic and deterministic models in demography and epidemiology. We conduct a large number of simulations of our stochastic demographic pair-formation model and concentrate on the average behavior of the model and its variability. We provide an outline of future work in this area."
Correspondence: Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program, 134 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30752 Hoem, Jan M. Event-history analysis in demography. Classical demographic methods of analysis and modern event-history techniques. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal 1993, Volume 3. 1993. 281-91 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"My purpose is to display the links between some classical methods of demographic analysis and their modern generalizations in event-history analysis. I will do so mostly by means of illustrative examples....[I] will outline the connections between life-table and standardization techniques on the one hand, and event-history analysis on the other." Marital status and fertility data for Sweden are used to illustrate.
Correspondence: J. M. Hoem, Stockholm University, Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30753 Ingram, Deborah D.; Makuc, Diane M. Statistical issues in analyzing the NHANES I epidemiologic followup study. Vital and Health Statistics, Series 2: Data Evaluation and Methods Research, No. 121, Pub. Order No. DHHS (PHS) 94-1395. ISBN 0-8406-0487-4. LC 93-46586. May 1994. iv, 30 pp. U.S. National Center for Health Statistics [NCHS]: Hyattsville, Maryland. In Eng.
"This report presents alternative strategies for analysis of data from the NHANES I Epidemiological Followup Study (NHEFS) using Cox proportional hazards and person-time logistic regression models. Analytic issues related to the complex survey design of the NHANES I and the variable length of followup of NHEFS participants are discussed."
Correspondence: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, 6525 Belcrest Road, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30754 Khlat, Myriam. Use of case-control methods for indirect estimation in demography. Epidemiologic Reviews, Vol. 16, No. 1, 1994. 124-33 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
The author examines the applicability of case-control methods to demographic studies and finds that "of the numerous epidemiologic research strategies, case-control studies are of particular interest whenever direct estimation of demographic indices is questionable. I shall elaborate upon two applications...,in order to demonstrate the usefulness of the case-control method for better investigation of mortality rates and differentials in various contexts." The geographical scope is worldwide, with a focus on developing countries.
Correspondence: M. Khlat, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

60:30755 Lancaster, Tony. The analysis of panel data: statistics versus econometrics. PSTC Working Paper Series, No. 94-02, Apr 1994. 13 pp. Brown University, Population Studies and Training Center [PSTC]: Providence, Rhode Island. In Eng.
"In this paper I propose to discuss the econometrician's approach to panel data and the relevance of standard statistical tools to the work of the econometrician....I will build my discussion around an example of panel data in which the units of observations are firms and the data are the inputs and outputs of each firm in each time period in which it is under observation."
Correspondence: Brown University, Population Studies and Training Center, Box 1916, Providence, RI 02912. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30756 Larson, Ann; Stevens, Adele; Wardlaw, Grant. Indirect estimates of "hidden" populations: capture-recapture methods to estimate the numbers of heroin users in the Australian Capital Territory. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 39, No. 6, Sep 1994. 823-31 pp. Tarrytown, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper describes a method of estimating the size of a population based on matching the individuals from the population appearing in two or more nonrandom samples....The method is applied to a data set of heroin users seeking treatment or counselling or arrested on drug charges in 1988 or 1989 in a small Australian city....Although estimates produced by this method should be validated with other techniques it provides a simple, quick method to estimate the numbers of people in other hidden populations which are difficult to access."
Correspondence: A. Larson, University of Queensland Medical School, Tropical Health Program, Herston Road, Herston, Queensland 4006, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

60:30757 Lubkin, S.; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos. A pair formation approach to modeling inheritance of social traits. Population and Development Program Working Paper Series, No. 93.12, [1993]. 8 pp. Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program: Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
"Transmission of cultural traits behaves superficially like genetic transmission, but is substantially more complicated, since transmission is influenced by the population at large, as is disease transmission. We present a framework for modeling cultural transmission by a system of ordinary differential equations, with nonlinearities both in the transmission and in the formation of pairs....Our objective here is to illustrate the use of our axiomatic approach for the construction of dynamic models that may prove useful in the study of the propagation or survival of social traits such as religion and language."
Correspondence: Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program, 134 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30758 Manton, Kenneth G.; Stallard, Eric; Woodbury, Max A.; Dowd, J. Ed. Time-varying covariates in models of human mortality and aging: multidimensional generalizations of the Gompertz. Journal of Gerontology: Biological Sciences, Vol. 49, No. 4, Jul 1994. B169-90 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Models of mortality and aging depend on assumptions about physiological change even if they are not made explicit. Standard models, like the Gompertz, often fail to describe mortality at extreme ages, suggesting a need for biologically more detailed and flexible models. One solution is to model the interaction of time-varying covariates with mortality to better describe the age dependence of mortality, test hypotheses about the relation of physiological change and mortality, and use longitudinal data to generalize assumptions about physiological change. This model is applied to (a) a 34-year follow-up of risk factors and mortality and (b) a 9.5-year follow-up of function and mortality from longitudinal surveys of the U.S. elderly population."
Correspondence: K. G. Manton, Duke University, Center for Demographic Studies, 2117 Campus Drive, Durham, NC 27706. Location: Princeton University Library (SW).

60:30759 Mitra, S. Derivations of complex roots of a stable model for a special distribution of net maternity rates: an alternative method. Janasamkhya, Vol. 9, No. 1-2, Jun 1991. 1-14 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"Several mathematical models representing the age distribution of net maternity rate p(x) have...tried in the past [to] generate estimates of the parameters of a stable population model....In an earlier paper, Mitra and Levin (1990) experimented with a generalized model....Among other things, that model generated a pair of nonlinear equations from which the intrinsic roots, real as well as complex, had to be solved. The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative method of solving the same pair of equations which reveals another set of interesting features characteristic of this different approach."
Correspondence: S. Mitra, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30760 Schmitz, Shu-Fang H.; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos. Completion of mixing matrices for non-closed social networks. Population and Development Program Working Paper Series, No. 93.16, [1993]. 11 pp. Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program: Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
The contact structure of a population is modeled in such a way as to allow partnerships between members of that population and also with individuals from other populations. The data concern a population of college students. The focus is on the relevance for sexual disease transmission.
Correspondence: Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program, 134 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30761 Schoen, Robert; Kim, Young J. Cyclically stable populations. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 4, No. 4, 1994. 283-95 pp. New York, New York/Yverdon, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper examines cyclically stable populations, models where the schedules of vital rates change over time but where there is a sequence of rate schedules that repeats itself indefinitely....The present paper extends previous work by offering a new algebraic representation of cyclically stable models, by deriving some additional relationships that hold in those models, and by providing an application of cyclical stationarity to contemporary U.S. experience."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: R. Schoen, Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Department of Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30762 Schoen, Robert; Kim, Young J. Modelling the effects of group identification on group survival. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal 1993, Volume 3. 1993. 113-20 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"There is increasing awareness that the size and composition of minority populations may be influenced by the group affiliations of persons with multiple heritages. Here, a model population with two distinct groups is used to analyze how group survival and group size are affected by the extent of intergroup fertility and by the group identification of intergroup births....[It is found that] group identification plays a key role in the dynamics of multigroup populations."
Correspondence: R. Schoen, Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Department of Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30763 Thomas, R. W. Forecasting global HIV-AIDS dynamics: modelling strategies and preliminary simulations. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 26, No. 7, Jul 1994. 1,147-66 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In the light of the considerable biomathematical effort devoted to building models of the incidence of HIV and AIDS in communities, in this paper a multiregion specification is developed that includes a parsimonious cross-infection mechanism where high-risk and low-risk populations are distinguished by their promiscuity rates. The nature of this mixing is compared with some existing modelling formats, and some preliminary simulations are presented for the timing and spread of the epidemic in a sixteen-city global system."
Correspondence: R. W. Thomas, University of Manchester, School of Geography, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, England. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).


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