Volume 60 - Number 3 - Fall 1994

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

60:30068 Andreev, Evgeny M.; Darsky, Leonid E.; Kharkova, Tatiana L. Population dynamics: consequences of regular and irregular changes. In: Demographic trends and patterns in the Soviet Union before 1991, edited by Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov, and Andrei Volkov. 1994. 423-40 pp. Routledge: New York, New York/London, England; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"This chapter critically evaluates the results of the 1926, 1937, and 1939 population censuses [in the former Soviet Union] and makes necessary corrections. We use modern methods to provide a picture of possible population trends in each cohort during these years." Some of the political factors affecting data collection and publication in these censuses are discussed. The demographic impact of various crises are estimated, including the effects of World War I and the civil revolution of 1917 on male mortality, the famine of the early 1930s on birth rates, and World War II on mortality and fertility levels.
Correspondence: E. M. Andreev, State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Institute of Statistics and Economic Research, Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30069 Bernat i Marti, Joan S.; Badenes Martin, Miquel A. Growth of the population of Valencia: analysis and presentation of demographic censuses (1609-1857). [Crecimiento de la poblacion valenciana: analisis y presentacion de los censos demograficos (1609-1857).] Arxius I Documents, No. 11, ISBN 84-7822-098-4. 1994. 360 pp. Edicions Alfons el Magnanim, Institucio Valenciana d'Estudis i Investigacio [IVEI]: Valencia, Spain; Generalitat Valenciana, Diputacio Provincial de Valencia: Valencia, Spain. In Spa.
The authors review trends in population growth in Valencia, Spain, using censal data for the period from 1609, when the Moors were expelled, to 1857, when the demographic transition began. An extensive appendix contains regional population statistics for selected years in tabular format.
Correspondence: Edicions Alfons el Magnanim, Institucio Valenciana d'Estudis i Investigacio, Placa Alfons el Magnanim, 1-46003 Valencia, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30070 Doumani, Beshara B. The political economy of population counts in Ottoman Palestine: Nablus, circa 1850. International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol. 26, No. 1, Feb 1994. 1-17 pp. New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"New evidence, culled from the Nablus advisory council...records and based on an actual Ottoman population count taken in December 1849, indicates that the city's population at that time numbered at least 20,000 people, more than twice the frequently cited figure of 8,000-9,000. This revision raises serious doubts about the veracity of hitherto commonly accepted population figures, most of them based on contemporary estimates by Western observers, for the various regions of Palestine during the first three-quarters of the 19th century. Moreover, when compared to available data for Nablus from the 16th and the late 19th centuries, it seems that the pattern of Nablus's demographic development differs from what the proponents of Ottoman decline and modernization theses have argued."
Correspondence: B. B. Doumani, University of Pennsylvania, Department of History, 207 College Hall, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Location: Princeton University Library (SY).

60:30071 Oomens, C. A. Population movements in the Netherlands in the nineteenth century. Population Statistics Reprint, No. 5, 1993. 40-52 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
The author reports on "a recently concluded study in which Dutch population statistics for the period 1796-1899 and statistics on Dutch immigrants in other countries were used to obtain an overall picture of population movements in the period mentioned. This article briefly describes the methods and results of that study....Basically, the method used was to bring together independent estimates...for periods between censuses...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

60:30072 Gu, Baochang. The world population at the turn of the century. Conclusions from the 1990 round censuses. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal 1993, Volume 3. 1993. 123-6 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
This is a brief overview of papers concerning global population trends as evidenced by 1990 census returns. The papers were presented at the 1993 International Population Conference sponsored by the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.
Correspondence: B. Gu, China Population Information and Research Center, P.O. Box 2444, Beijing 100081, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30073 Hammes, Winfried; Fleischer, Henning. Population trends 1992. [Bevolkerungsentwicklung 1992.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 12, Dec 1993. 893-8 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Information is presented on population trends in Germany in 1992, together with some comparative data for earlier years. The emphasis is on international migration and migration between the former East and West Germany. Live births, deaths, and population size and growth are also briefly considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

60:30074 Long, John F. Methods for postcensal population estimation: flow methods vs. stock methods. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal 1993, Volume 3. 1993. 211-21 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"This paper tries to explain the population estimates system of the United States in a systematic way that both illustrates the use of nontraditional data sets and invites comparisons with similar methods applicable to other nations with quite different data sets."
Correspondence: J. F. Long, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30075 Monnier, Alain; de Guibert-Lantoine, Catherine. The demographic situation of Europe and the developed countries overseas: an annual report. Population. English Selection, Vol. 5, 1993. 249-71 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
The authors present data on population dynamics in the European Community for 1991 and 1992, with some comparisons made with previous years. Tables provide information on population size, births, deaths, infant mortality, fertility, first marriage rates, divorce, legal abortion, and mean length of life.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30076 Slater, Courtenay M.; Hall, George E. 1994 county and city extra. Annual metro, city and county data book. 3rd ed. ISBN 0-89059-021-4. LC 92-657333. 1994. xxxvii, 1,043, [131] pp. Bernan Press: Lanham, Maryland. In Eng.
This "is an annual publication providing the most up-to-date statistical information available for every state, county, metropolitan area, and congressional district, and for all cities with a 1990 population of 25,000 or more in the United States." In addition to a selection of 1990 census data, the volume also includes "the latest available data on personal income, employment and unemployment, health resources, crime, the distribution of federal funds, city government finances, and many other topics."
Correspondence: Bernan Press, 4611-F Assembly Drive, Lanham, MD 20706-4391. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

60:30077 Birg, Herwig. Model calculations of population trends in Lower Saxony with special reference to migration. [Modellrechnungen zur Bevolkerungsentwicklung in Niedersachsen unter besonderer Berucksichtigung von Wanderungen.] IBS-Materialien, No. 34, ISBN 3-923340-28-1. 1993. iv, 141 pp. Universitat Bielefeld, Institut fur Bevolkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik [IBS]: Bielefeld, Germany. In Ger.
Population projections by age and sex are presented for the state of Lower Saxony, Germany, for the period 1990-2050. Emphasis is on the impact of varying assumptions concerning international migration. The methodology used is also described.
Correspondence: Universitat Bielefeld, Institut fur Bevolkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik, Universitatsstrasse, Postfach 8640, 4800 Bielefeld 1, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30078 Bouvier, Leon F. Fifty million Californians? ISBN 1-881290-24-7. LC 91-76410. 1991. x, 93 pp. Center for Immigration Studies: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Current and future population trends in California are analyzed, using data from the 1990 census. The author examines probable changes in the ethnic composition of the population, and the future situation with regard to education, the economy, cultural change, and the environment. The impacts of these trends on the state's social institutions, its resources, and infrastructure are discussed.
Correspondence: Center for Immigration Studies, 1815 H Street NW, Suite 1010, Washington, D.C. 20006-3604. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30079 Campbell, Paul R. Population projections for states, by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin: 1993 to 2020. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1111, Mar 1994. xxxiii, 40, [7] pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This is the first State population projections by the U.S. Bureau of the Census to present data for four race groups (White; Black; American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut; and Asian and Pacific Islander), and the Hispanic origin population. The four race groups sum to the State totals. Projections for Hispanic origin are treated separately and are not additive. Many trends described here are substantially different from those shown in the previous projections. These differences are primarily due to change over to the 1990 census base and to changes in the national population projections used as controls for these projections...."
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-9328. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30080 de Beer, J. National population and household forecasts: methods, assumptions and main outcomes. Population Statistics Reprint, No. 5, 1993. 148-72 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This article sets out in broad lines how forecasts are made. It describes the methods used for making the assumptions underlying the forecasts, discusses the assumptions and describes the main outcomes of recent forecasts [for the Netherlands]."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30081 Lutz, Wolfgang. The future of world population. Population Bulletin, Vol. 49, No. 1, Jun 1994. 47 pp. Population Reference Bureau: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The world population will continue to grow; developing countries will account for an increasing share of the world total; and the average age of the population will rise in all geographic regions. Beyond these certainties, there is a wide range of possibilities for the future of world population. The author draws upon the work of demographers and other population specialists to assess past demographic trends in major world regions in order to develop assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality, and migration." He also presents a framework of addressing human rights, socioeconomic development, and global interdependence concerns in the development of population policy.
Correspondence: Population Reference Bureau, 1875 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009-5728. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30082 Panama. Direccion de Estadistica y Censo (Panama City, Panama). The demographic situation. Projections of the population of the whole country by sex according to age group: 1990-2025. Special bulletin. [Situacion demografica. Proyeccion de la poblacion total del pais por sexo, segun grupos de edad: anos 1990-2025. Boletin especial.] Estadistica Panamena, Seccion 221: Movimiento de la Poblacion, Apr 1993. 24 pp. Panama City, Panama. In Spa.
Population projections are presented for Panama by age and sex up to the year 2025, using data from the 1990 census. Data are also presented on estimates and trends for the period 1950-1990.
Correspondence: Direccion de Estadistica y Censo, Contraloria General de la Republica, Apartado 5213, Panama City 5, Panama. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30083 Swanson, David A.; Beck, Donald M. A new short-term county population projection method. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 20, No. 1, 1994. 25-50 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper proposes a new method for short-term county population projections. It is based on a modification of the ratio-correlation method of population estimation. The modified ratio-correlation method can produce projections with a high potential for accuracy without requiring substantial data and intensive intellectual labor inputs. Tests of accuracy are examined for the modified ratio-correlation method and two currently available alternatives using data from Washington state. The tests suggest that the new method performs well."
Correspondence: D. A. Swanson, University of Arkansas, Arkansas Institute for Economic Advancement, 2801 South University, Little Rock, AR 72204-1099. Location: Princeton University Library (SF).

60:30084 Vallin, Jacques. Reflections on the future of world population. [Reflexions sur l'avenir de la population mondiale.] Les Dossiers du CEPED, No. 26, ISBN 2-87762-064-6. May 1994. 24 pp. Centre Francais sur la Population et le Developpement [CEPED]: Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"The author first discusses the reliability of the United Nations world population projections, with a particular attention to the possible effects on the expected changes in mortality and fertility levels....He then mentions new findings on the relationships between population growth and economic development...."
Correspondence: Centre Francais sur la Population et le Developpement, 15 rue de l'Ecole de Medecine, 75270 Paris Cedex 06, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30085 van Imhoff, Evert; van Wissen, Leo; Spiess, Katharina. Regional population projections in the countries of the European Economic Area. NIDI/CBGS Publication, No. 31, ISBN 90-265-1396-8. 1994. 145 pp. Swets and Zeitlinger: Berwyn, Pennsylvania/Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"As a first step towards achieving a consistent set of European regional population projections, this book investigates and evaluates the current state of the art with respect to regional population projections in the EC and EFTA countries. An introductory chapter presents a concise yet comprehensive overview of general issues in regional demographic forecasting. The core of the book consists of a systematic comparison of the countries involved, on a large number of relevant aspects of regional population projections. Also, an evaluation is made of the quality of these countries' regional projection models, the consistency between regional and national forecasts, the quality of the input data, and the type of assumptions on future trends in demographic behaviour."
Correspondence: Swets and Zeitlinger, Heereweg 347B, 2161 CA Lisse, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30086 van Imhoff, Evert; Schoorl, Jeannette; van der Erf, Rob; van der Gaag, Nicole. Regional population projections of those of Turkish, Moroccan, Surinamese, or Caribbean origin, 1992-2000. [Regionale prognose bevolking van Turkse, Marokkaanse, Surinaamse of Antilliaanse afkomst, 1992-2000.] NIDI Rapport, No. 33, ISBN 90-70990-41-5. 1994. 207 pp. Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut [NIDI]: The Hague, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"This report presents forecasts of the population in the Netherlands of Turkish, Moroccan, Surinamese or Antillian origin, by 28 labour market regions. 'Origin' is operationalized as nationality, country of birth, mother's country of birth, or father's country of birth, and thus includes the so-called second generation. The forecast covers the period 1992-2000. The forecasts have been produced with a simultaneous cohort-component model, where internal migration is handled using a migration-pool approach."
Correspondence: Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut, Postbus 11650, Lange Houtstraat 19, 2511 CV The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:30087 Vyatkin, A. R. Developing countries of the East: a demographic forecast. [Razvivayushchiesya strany Vostoka: demograficheskii prognoz.] ISBN 5-02-016497-6. LC 91-111484. 1990. 160 pp. Nauka, Glavnaya Redaktsiya Vostochnoi Literatury: Moscow, USSR. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
The author first examines methodological aspects of making population projections for developing countries. Changes in fertility that occurring as a result of the demographic transition and how they affect those projections are considered. The study concludes with a review of the role that demographic forecasting can play in developing countries both today and in the future. The geographical focus is on Asia, with special attention paid to India.
Correspondence: Nauka, Glavnaya Redaktsiya Vostochnoi Literatury, Tsvetnoi Bul'var 21, 103051 Moscow K-51, Russia. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

60:30088 Fan, C. Cindy. The temporal and spatial dynamics of income and population growth in Ohio, 1950-1990. Regional Studies, Vol. 28, No. 3, 1994. 241-58 pp. Abingdon, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"This paper focuses on spatial variation of growth within a state. Using Ohio as a case study, two hypotheses are extracted from the literature. First, the theories of polarization and polarization reversal suggest that in the old industrial core the leading sector role of manufacturing has diminished in old manufacturing poles, and that income growth trends differ substantially between these old poles and new centres of development. Second, the theories of suburbanization and migration reversals suggest that population growth is contingent upon level of urbanization, and that the relationship has changed drastically between the pre-1970s, 1970s, and post-1970s periods."
Correspondence: C. C. Fan, University of California, Department of Geography, 405 Hilgard Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90024. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

60:30089 Levy, Michel L. Population trends in France, 1990-1993. [La population de la France de 1990 a 1993.] Population et Societes, No. 288, Mar 1994. 4 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Recent demographic trends in France are summarized using data from published official studies. A significant decline in fertility over the period 1990-1993 is noted.
Correspondence: M. L. Levy, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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