60:30001 Akimov, A.
V. The global population: looking ahead. [Mirovoe
naselenie: v zglyad v budushchee.] ISBN 5-02-017263-4. 1992. 199 pp.
Nauka, Glavnaya Redaktsiya Vostochnoi Literatury: Moscow, Russia. In
Rus. with sum. in Eng.
A model to project world population trends is presented. The first two chapters describe the model and its development. The model is then used to forecast population growth trends in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. It is also applied to past trends, and shown to fit such trends in China from 1745, Russia from 1678, and Europe and Asia excluding Russia from the start of the Christian era to 1800. The author also examines issues concerning the quality of the data used in making these projections, the repercussions of nuclear war, and the effect of longer life spans. The effect of economic changes, which might include either increasing labor demands as the economy grows, or declining labor demands due to advances in technology, is assessed. A case for cyclical changes in both future economic and demographic trends is made.
Correspondence: Nauka, Glavnaya Redaktsiya Vostochnoi Literatury, Tsvetnoi Bul'var 21, 103051 Moscow K-51, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
No citations in this issue.
Thomas K. Fertility transitions: toward more formal
theory. Materiali di Studi e di Ricerche, No. 5, Dec 1993. 20, 
pp. Universita degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze
Demografiche: Rome, Italy. In Eng.
The author critically examines theories of demographic transition to date and finds "that theoretical progress and unification are possible...,but only if fertility transition theories are stated in more rigorous terms than previously. The requirement is for sufficient formalization to make the theories unambiguous in their assertions and thus in their logical implications, at least to the point that they are capable of disproof. This paper attempts to show by example: 1) that current theoretical statements on fertility transition can be translated into formal terms fairly easily, especially by the use of flexible computer tools for modelling and simulation; [and] 2) that the effort of translation leads to a better understanding of the theory at issue and its limitations....The illustration consists of a restatement, further specification and simulation of the Easterlin-Crimmins 'supply-demand' synthesis....The chief concern here is with translation of their theory into more rigorous form....The language of formalization is Dynamo, a...computer package for the simulation of dynamic systems."
Correspondence: Universita degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, Via Nomentana 41, 00161 Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Thomas K. Fertility transitions: toward more formal
theory. Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 94-1, ISBN
0-7714-1594-X. Nov 1993. 34,  pp. University of Western Ontario,
Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
The author notes that there has been little progress toward the formalization of demographic transition theory since Notestein's seminal work published in 1945. The aim of this paper "is to illustrate that considerable formalization of current behavioural theories of fertility decline is not only feasible but relatively easy, given modern computer technology." The author applies the computer program Dynamo to the Easterlin-Crimmins supply and demand synthesis as an illustration.
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario, Department of Sociology, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Robert W. Economic growth, population theory, and
physiology: the bearing of long-term processes on the making of
economic policy. American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 3, Jun
1994. 369-95 pp. Nashville, Tennessee. In Eng.
"This lecture sketches a theory of the secular decline in morbidity and mortality that takes account of changes induced in physiological functioning since 1700. The synergism between technological and physiological improvements has produced a form of human evolution, biological though not genetic, rapid, culturally transmitted, and not necessarily stable, which is still ongoing in both OECD and developing countries. Thermodynamic and physiological aspects of economic growth are defined and their impact on growth rates is assessed. Implications of this theory for population forecasting, measurement of national income, demand for leisure, pension policies, and demand for health care are considered."
Correspondence: R. W. Fogel, University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business, 1101 East 58th Street, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
Nathan. Beyond stable theory: intercohort changes in
USSR, U.S.A., and Europe. In: Demographic trends and patterns in
the Soviet Union before 1991, edited by Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov,
and Andrei Volkov. 1994. 461-75 pp. Routledge: New York, New
York/London, England; International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
The author compares a method for estimating intercohort population change with the stable population method. He then examines intercohort population increases and decreases in the former Soviet Union and compares them with those in Europe and the United States. Among the findings it is concluded that the size of upcoming generations is of great importance for both political and economic reasons.
Correspondence: N. Keyfitz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30006 Liao, Tim
F. A three-dimensional framework of theory construction in
demography. In: International Population Conference/Congres
International de la Population: Montreal 1993, Volume 3. 1993. 389-404
pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]:
Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"A three-dimensional framework of demographic theory construction is discussed. In this framework a theory can be evaluated in the dimensions of confirmation and falsification, of scope conditions, and of its potential for inducing new theoretical paradigms. Examples of stable population theory, relative deprivation theory in migration, and the development of fertility theory are used to demonstrate how they fare in the framework. These examples include pure deductive demographic theory, theory adopted and adapted from other disciplines, and empirical generalizations that can be regarded as de facto theories."
Correspondence: T. F. Liao, University of Illinois, Department of Sociology, 702 South Wright Street, Urbana, IL 61801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Giuseppe A. Models: logic, semantics, life cycles.
[Modeles: logique, semantique, cycles de vie.] In: International
Population Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal
1993, Volume 3. 1993. 361-76 pp. International Union for the Scientific
Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Fre.
The author examines the development of population theory during the modern era. He then discusses the theoretical logic and semantics behind demographic models, and evaluates the use of the life cycle concept.
Correspondence: G. A. Micheli, via Breguzzo 5, 20148 Milan, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Guillaume. The foundations of demographic models:
theories or empirical exercises? In: International Population
Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal 1993,
Volume 3. 1993. 355-9 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study
of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
The theoretical constructs behind demographic models are critically discussed, with a focus on the differences between models that stem from theory and those that do not.
Correspondence: G. Wunsch, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie, 1 place Montesquieu, B.P. 17, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Guillaume. Theories, models, and data. Demografie,
Vol. 36, No. 1, 1994. 20-9 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Eng. with
sum. in Rus; Cze.
The author discusses the definition of and the relation between theories and models, and the extent to which they can be confirmed or falsified by data. He focuses on "empirically testable explanatory theories, that is those theories which have been developed in order to explain the occurrence of specific demographic events (e.g. the fall in fertility in Europe) and which can be temporarily confirmed or falsified by data."
Correspondence: G. Wunsch, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie, 1 place Montesquieu, B.P. 17, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Arthur E. To live a fulfilled life--to die a peaceful
death. [Erfullt leben--in Gelassenheit sterben.] Zeitschrift fur
Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 19, No. 2, 1993-1994. 169-88 pp.
Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The author reports on an interdisciplinary symposium held in Germany in 1993. Five monographs issued as a result of the symposium are briefly reviewed.
Correspondence: A. E. Imhof, Freie Universitat Berlin, Fachbereich Geschichtswissenschaften, Habelschwerdter Allee 45, 14195 Berlin, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Gary E. Population and human survival. Ideas in
Conflict, ISBN 0-86596-089-5. 1993. 158 pp. Gary E. McCuen
Publications: Hudson, Wisconsin. In Eng.
This is a collection of short studies on population topics designed for use in schools. The 22 studies, most of which have been published before, are organized under the topics of the global population crisis, debating population growth, population and the environment, feeding a crowded planet, and population control and social justice.
Correspondence: Gary E. McCuen Publications, 411 Mallalieu Drive, Hudson, WI 54106. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
David A.; Rogerson, Peter A. The geographical analysis of
population: with applications to planning and business. ISBN
0-471-51014-9. LC 93-48671. 1994. xvi, 417 pp. John Wiley and Sons: New
York, New York/Chichester, England. In Eng.
This textbook concerns the geographical analysis of population dynamics focusing on change at the local level, and on the application of this approach to planning and business. "Chapters 1 and 2 introduce some of the fundamental geographic notions that provide a foundation for the geographical analysis of population....Chapter 3 contains material on fertility and mortality, while Chapter 4 focuses exclusively upon the migration component of change....Chapters 5 and 6 treat the traditional demographic problems of population estimation and projection, and in Chapter 7 we devote special attention to the modeling and forecasting of migration flows. The second half of the book is concerned with the implications that population distribution, composition, and change have on applications in the public and private sectors." The primary geographical focus is on the United States.
Correspondence: John Wiley and Sons, 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158-0012. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).