60:30001 Akimov, A.
V. The global population: looking ahead. [Mirovoe
naselenie: v zglyad v budushchee.] ISBN 5-02-017263-4. 1992. 199 pp.
Nauka, Glavnaya Redaktsiya Vostochnoi Literatury: Moscow, Russia. In
Rus. with sum. in Eng.
A model to project world population trends
is presented. The first two chapters describe the model and its
development. The model is then used to forecast population growth
trends in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. It is also applied to past
trends, and shown to fit such trends in China from 1745, Russia from
1678, and Europe and Asia excluding Russia from the start of the
Christian era to 1800. The author also examines issues concerning the
quality of the data used in making these projections, the repercussions
of nuclear war, and the effect of longer life spans. The effect of
economic changes, which might include either increasing labor demands
as the economy grows, or declining labor demands due to advances in
technology, is assessed. A case for cyclical changes in both future
economic and demographic trends is made.
Correspondence:
Nauka, Glavnaya Redaktsiya Vostochnoi Literatury, Tsvetnoi Bul'var 21,
103051 Moscow K-51, Russia. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
60:30002 Burch,
Thomas K. Fertility transitions: toward more formal
theory. Materiali di Studi e di Ricerche, No. 5, Dec 1993. 20, [7]
pp. Universita degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze
Demografiche: Rome, Italy. In Eng.
The author critically examines
theories of demographic transition to date and finds "that theoretical
progress and unification are possible...,but only if fertility
transition theories are stated in more rigorous terms than previously.
The requirement is for sufficient formalization to make the theories
unambiguous in their assertions and thus in their logical implications,
at least to the point that they are capable of disproof. This paper
attempts to show by example: 1) that current theoretical statements on
fertility transition can be translated into formal terms fairly easily,
especially by the use of flexible computer tools for modelling and
simulation; [and] 2) that the effort of translation leads to a better
understanding of the theory at issue and its limitations....The
illustration consists of a restatement, further specification and
simulation of the Easterlin-Crimmins 'supply-demand' synthesis....The
chief concern here is with translation of their theory into more
rigorous form....The language of formalization is Dynamo, a...computer
package for the simulation of dynamic
systems."
Correspondence: Universita degli Studi di Roma La
Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, Via Nomentana 41, 00161
Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30003 Burch,
Thomas K. Fertility transitions: toward more formal
theory. Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 94-1, ISBN
0-7714-1594-X. Nov 1993. 34, [7] pp. University of Western Ontario,
Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
The author notes
that there has been little progress toward the formalization of
demographic transition theory since Notestein's seminal work published
in 1945. The aim of this paper "is to illustrate that considerable
formalization of current behavioural theories of fertility decline is
not only feasible but relatively easy, given modern computer
technology." The author applies the computer program Dynamo to the
Easterlin-Crimmins supply and demand synthesis as an
illustration.
Correspondence: University of Western
Ontario, Department of Sociology, Population Studies Centre, London,
Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
60:30004 Fogel,
Robert W. Economic growth, population theory, and
physiology: the bearing of long-term processes on the making of
economic policy. American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 3, Jun
1994. 369-95 pp. Nashville, Tennessee. In Eng.
"This lecture
sketches a theory of the secular decline in morbidity and mortality
that takes account of changes induced in physiological functioning
since 1700. The synergism between technological and physiological
improvements has produced a form of human evolution, biological though
not genetic, rapid, culturally transmitted, and not necessarily stable,
which is still ongoing in both OECD and developing countries.
Thermodynamic and physiological aspects of economic growth are defined
and their impact on growth rates is assessed. Implications of this
theory for population forecasting, measurement of national income,
demand for leisure, pension policies, and demand for health care are
considered."
Correspondence: R. W. Fogel, University of
Chicago, Graduate School of Business, 1101 East 58th Street, Chicago,
IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
60:30005 Keyfitz,
Nathan. Beyond stable theory: intercohort changes in
USSR, U.S.A., and Europe. In: Demographic trends and patterns in
the Soviet Union before 1991, edited by Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov,
and Andrei Volkov. 1994. 461-75 pp. Routledge: New York, New
York/London, England; International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
The author compares a
method for estimating intercohort population change with the stable
population method. He then examines intercohort population increases
and decreases in the former Soviet Union and compares them with those
in Europe and the United States. Among the findings it is concluded
that the size of upcoming generations is of great importance for both
political and economic reasons.
Correspondence: N. Keyfitz,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1,
2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
60:30006 Liao, Tim
F. A three-dimensional framework of theory construction in
demography. In: International Population Conference/Congres
International de la Population: Montreal 1993, Volume 3. 1993. 389-404
pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]:
Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"A three-dimensional framework of
demographic theory construction is discussed. In this framework a
theory can be evaluated in the dimensions of confirmation and
falsification, of scope conditions, and of its potential for inducing
new theoretical paradigms. Examples of stable population theory,
relative deprivation theory in migration, and the development of
fertility theory are used to demonstrate how they fare in the
framework. These examples include pure deductive demographic theory,
theory adopted and adapted from other disciplines, and empirical
generalizations that can be regarded as de facto
theories."
Correspondence: T. F. Liao, University of
Illinois, Department of Sociology, 702 South Wright Street, Urbana, IL
61801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30007 Micheli,
Giuseppe A. Models: logic, semantics, life cycles.
[Modeles: logique, semantique, cycles de vie.] In: International
Population Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal
1993, Volume 3. 1993. 361-76 pp. International Union for the Scientific
Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Fre.
The author
examines the development of population theory during the modern era.
He then discusses the theoretical logic and semantics behind
demographic models, and evaluates the use of the life cycle
concept.
Correspondence: G. A. Micheli, via Breguzzo 5,
20148 Milan, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
60:30008 Wunsch,
Guillaume. The foundations of demographic models:
theories or empirical exercises? In: International Population
Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal 1993,
Volume 3. 1993. 355-9 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study
of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
The theoretical
constructs behind demographic models are critically discussed, with a
focus on the differences between models that stem from theory and those
that do not.
Correspondence: G. Wunsch, Universite
Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie, 1 place Montesquieu,
B.P. 17, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
60:30009 Wunsch,
Guillaume. Theories, models, and data. Demografie,
Vol. 36, No. 1, 1994. 20-9 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Eng. with
sum. in Rus; Cze.
The author discusses the definition of and the
relation between theories and models, and the extent to which they can
be confirmed or falsified by data. He focuses on "empirically testable
explanatory theories, that is those theories which have been developed
in order to explain the occurrence of specific demographic events (e.g.
the fall in fertility in Europe) and which can be temporarily confirmed
or falsified by data."
Correspondence: G. Wunsch,
Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie, 1 place
Montesquieu, B.P. 17, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30010 Imhof,
Arthur E. To live a fulfilled life--to die a peaceful
death. [Erfullt leben--in Gelassenheit sterben.] Zeitschrift fur
Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 19, No. 2, 1993-1994. 169-88 pp.
Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The author
reports on an interdisciplinary symposium held in Germany in 1993.
Five monographs issued as a result of the symposium are briefly
reviewed.
Correspondence: A. E. Imhof, Freie Universitat
Berlin, Fachbereich Geschichtswissenschaften, Habelschwerdter Allee 45,
14195 Berlin, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
60:30011 McCuen,
Gary E. Population and human survival. Ideas in
Conflict, ISBN 0-86596-089-5. 1993. 158 pp. Gary E. McCuen
Publications: Hudson, Wisconsin. In Eng.
This is a collection of
short studies on population topics designed for use in schools. The 22
studies, most of which have been published before, are organized under
the topics of the global population crisis, debating population growth,
population and the environment, feeding a crowded planet, and
population control and social justice.
Correspondence: Gary
E. McCuen Publications, 411 Mallalieu Drive, Hudson, WI 54106.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
60:30012 Plane,
David A.; Rogerson, Peter A. The geographical analysis of
population: with applications to planning and business. ISBN
0-471-51014-9. LC 93-48671. 1994. xvi, 417 pp. John Wiley and Sons: New
York, New York/Chichester, England. In Eng.
This textbook concerns
the geographical analysis of population dynamics focusing on change at
the local level, and on the application of this approach to planning
and business. "Chapters 1 and 2 introduce some of the fundamental
geographic notions that provide a foundation for the geographical
analysis of population....Chapter 3 contains material on fertility and
mortality, while Chapter 4 focuses exclusively upon the migration
component of change....Chapters 5 and 6 treat the traditional
demographic problems of population estimation and projection, and in
Chapter 7 we devote special attention to the modeling and forecasting
of migration flows. The second half of the book is concerned with the
implications that population distribution, composition, and change have
on applications in the public and private sectors." The primary
geographical focus is on the United States.
Correspondence:
John Wiley and Sons, 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158-0012.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
