Volume 60 - Number 2 - Summer 1994

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

60:20060 Borrie, W. D. The European peopling of Australasia: a demographic history, 1788-1988. ISBN 0-7315-1860-8. 1994. xviii, 403 pp. Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Demography Program: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This study is an account of the colonization by European settlers of the two last major land masses to be added to the British Empire and of their growth through successive waves of immigrant settlers and through their own natural increase. It is not a social history; it is not an economic history; it is a demographic history, so that its primary concern is with the factors and nature of population growth, mortality, fertility and migration. The time-scale of the study is limited to the last two hundred years in the case of Australia and the last one hundred and fifty years in the case of New Zealand."
Correspondence: Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography and Sociology, Demography Program, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20061 Galloway, Patrick R. Secular changes in the short-term preventive, positive, and temperature checks to population growth in Europe, 1460 to 1909. Climatic Change, Vol. 26, 1994. 3-63 pp. Boston, Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Annual variations in births, marriages, deaths, grain prices, and quarterly temperature series in England, France, Prussia, and Sweden [for the period 1460-1909] are analyzed using a distributed lag model. The results provide support for the existence of the short-term preventive, positive and temperature checks to population growth. Decreases in fertility and nuptiality are generally associated with increases in grain prices. Increases in mortality appear to be associated with high grain prices, cold winters and hot summers. Changes in these responses over time are examined within the context of economic development."
For a related paper by the same author, published in 1988, see 54:30546.
Correspondence: P. R. Galloway, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20062 Iacono, Carlo; Manzi, Carlo. Demographic trends in Sicily, 1962-1989. [L'evoluzione demografica in Sicilia nel periodo 1962-1989.] Economia e Credito, No. 31, Mar-Jun 1992. 321-60 pp. Palermo, Italy. In Ita.
A general analysis of population trends in the island of Sicily, Italy, is presented for the period 1962-1989, with particular emphasis on the period from 1982 to 1989. Data is presented on demographic changes occurring in each of the island's 390 communes in order to identify regional differences in such trends.
Correspondence: C. Iacono, Ufficio Studi-Scicilcassa, Sicily, Italy. Location: American Graduate School of International Management, Barton Kyle Yount Library, Glendale, AZ.

60:20063 Nusteling, Hubert P. H. The population of England, 1539-1873: an issue of demographic homeostasis. Histoire et Mesure, Vol. 8, No. 1-2, 1993. 59-92 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
The author constructs a population series for England for the period 1539-1873 using the demographic homeostasis method. The method is evaluated and compared with the use of back projection.
Correspondence: H. P. H. Nusteling, Katholieke Universiteit Nijmegen, Comeniuslaan 4, P.O.B. 9102, 6500 HC Nijmegen, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20064 Sanchez de la Calle, Jose A. Population growth in Plasencia in the nineteenth century. [El crecimiento de la poblacion placentina en el siglo XIX.] Boletin de la Asociacion de Demografia Historica, Vol. 11, No. 2, 1993. 75-116 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"Using sources such as parish registers, civil registers, records of the town hall, inquiries, [censuses] and list of inhabitants, we have been able to confirm the existence of four different stages in the demographic development of Plasencia [Spain]. The first one, between 1800 and 1815, is characterized by a scarce growing....The second one, between 1816 and 1839, shows a certain increase which is restrained at the end of the 30s because of some epidemic illness (cholera and various fevers). The period between 1840 and 1871 is a stage of slow growing due to many subsistence crises. The fourth stage, 1872-1899, continues the same outline with a great rising of mortality, which does not prevent the rising of population in Plasencia caused by a high rate of inmigration."
Correspondence: J. A. Sanchez de la Calle, Los Yebenes 159, 3o D, 28047 Madrid, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20065 Shevyakov, A. A. The all-Union census of population of 1939 need not have happened... [Vsesoyuznaya perepis' naseleniya 1939 g. mogla i ne sostoyat'sya...] Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, No. 5, 1993. 3-13 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
The author examines some social and demographic aspects of the 1939 Soviet census, and points out that this census was taken only because Stalin rejected the results of the 1937 census. Some results of the 1939 census are discussed concerning population growth, spatial distribution, literacy, educational status, age distribution, fertility, marriage, and divorce in the whole of the USSR, in selected republics, and in rural and urban areas.
Correspondence: A. A. Shevyakov, Institute of Russian History, Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

60:20066 Byerly, Edwin R.; Schmidley, Dianne. Population estimates for counties and metropolitan areas: July 1, 1991. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1108, Feb 1994. viii, 60 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents July 1, 1991 estimates for counties and metropolitan areas (MA's) in the United States, together with their April 1, 1990 census counts. These estimates are consistent with the population as enumerated in the 1990 census, and have not been adjusted for census coverage errors. The report also includes for counties, the components of population change--births, deaths, and residual change--between April 1, 1990 and July 1, 1991."
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20067 Macau. Direccao de Servicos de Estatistica e Censos (Macau). Estimates of the resident population, by sex and five-year age groups, 1951-1991: projections of the resident population, 1990-2000. Dec 1993. 140 pp. Macau. In Eng.
Population estimates are presented in the first part of this report for Macau by sex and age, based on preliminary results from the 1991 census and on other official sources. The second part gives population projections up to the year 2000, also by age and sex.
Correspondence: Direccao de Servicos de Estatistica e Censos, Documentation and Information Centre, Rua Inacio Baptista 4D-6, 3o andar, Macau. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20068 Miettinen, Anneli. Population data on Finland, 1900-1992. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 31, 1993. 133-42 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
Tabular data for Finland for the period 1900-1992 are provided on population size, age and sex distribution, fertility, maternal age, marriage age, abortions, marriage, divorce, family characteristics, mortality, life expectancy, international and internal migration, and the labor force.
Correspondence: A. Miettinen, Vaestoliitto, Population Research Institute, Kalevankatu 16, 00100 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20069 United Kingdom. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS]. Population Statistics Division (London, England). Rebasing the annual population estimates. Population Trends, No. 73, Autumn 1993. 27-31 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The revised final, rebased, mid-1991 population estimates for England and Wales were recently published. This article describes what was involved in preparing these estimates and what further work is in progress."
Correspondence: Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, Population Statistics Division, St. Catherine's House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20070 Verma, Ravi B. P. Regression-based estimates of total population for local areas: then and now. In: Readings in population research: policy, methods and perspectives, edited by P. Krishnan, Chi-Hsien Tuan, and Kuttan Mahadevan. 1992. 165-78 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper provides an overview of the methodological developments in the regression method for estimating local area population....The estimation procedure [is] applied to census divisions in Canada...."
Correspondence: R. B. P. Verma, 1270 Plante Drive, Ottawa, Ontario K1V 9G2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20071 Wegman, Myron E. Annual summary of vital statistics--1991. Pediatrics, Vol. 90, No. 6, Dec 1992. 835-45 pp. Elk Grove Village, Illinois. In Eng.
Vital statistics for selected countries are presented and summarized. Among the findings, the author notes that for the United States, "between 1990 and 1991, provisional data show that the infant mortality rate decreased again, from 9.1 to 8.9, a decline of 2% in contrast to the 7% decline from 1989 to 1990. Birth, death, and marriage rates were also lower, but the divorce rate stayed at about the same level as in 1990. Natural increase in population, excess of births over deaths, was less than 2 million, 4% less than the increase in 1990....Some 12.5 million births, less that 9% of the world total, took place in countries with under-5 mortality rates of less than 20 per 1,000. At the other end of the scale, 42% of the world's births occurred in countries with under-5 mortality rates of more than 140 per 1,000. The median under-5 mortality rate for those countries in 1990 was 189 per 1,000, meaning that almost 20% of the infants born alive in these countries died before their fifth birthday."
For a previous review for 1990, see 58:40078.
Correspondence: M. E. Wegman, University of Michigan, School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

60:20072 Chakrabarty, D.; Baruah, H. K. A numerical method of population projection. Journal of the Assam Science Society, Vol. 35, No. 3, Sep 1993. 170-9 pp. Gauhati, India. In Eng.
"In this paper a numerical method has been developed to project the total population of a geographical region. The method has been applied to the Indian situation. It is found that the total population of India was expected to lie between [836 million and 850 million in 1991 and between 986 million and 1,042 million] in 2001."
Correspondence: D. Chakrabarty, Handique Girls College, Gauhati 781 001, Assam, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20073 Day, Jennifer C. Population projections of the United States, by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin: 1993 to 2050. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1104, Nov 1993. xli, 62, [28] pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report includes population projections of the United States by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for the years 1993 to 2050. These numbers are based on an estimated July 1, 1992 resident population consistent with the 1990 census as enumerated, and are projected forward using the cohort-component method with alternative assumptions for future fertility, life expectancy, and net immigration levels."
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20074 Edmonston, Barry; Passel, Jeffrey S. Immigration and ethnicity in national population projections. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal 1993, Volume 2. 1993. 277-99 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"This paper proposes a new demographic model for population projections that incorporates immigration. This model projects an initial population under conditions of fertility, mortality, and international migration (like standard cohort component models), but considers the population arrayed by generation....As an example, we examine the next century of population growth for the Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White non-Hispanic populations in the United States, comparing their growth rates and their composition within the total U.S. population."
Correspondence: B. Edmonston, National Academy of Sciences, Committee on National Statistics, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20418. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20075 Grinblat, Joseph A. Population in the 22nd century, from the United Nations long range projections. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal 1993, Volume 2. 1993. 249-58 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"This document provides information based on the United Nations long-range projections of the population of the world and nine major areas to the year 2150....The long-range population projections are carried out using a cohort-component approach with five-year projection intervals....The seven extensions differ according to the assumed future trend of fertility. All assume the same trend in mortality, and no net international migration after 2025 for the world's major areas."
Correspondence: J. A. Grinblat, UN Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20076 Hablicsek, Laszlo. Population projections for Hungary, 1993-2020. [Magyarorszag nepessegenek eloreszamitasa, 1993-2020.] Demografiai Tajekoztato Fuzetek, No. 14, 1993. 55 pp. Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal, Nepessegtudomanyi Kutato Intezet, Kutatasi Jelentesei: Budapest, Hungary. In Hun.
Population projections for Hungary for the period 1993-2020 are presented. Sections cover updated and previous projections by age, sex, and region. Data are also presented for internal migration, fertility and live births, and mortality.
Correspondence: Kozponti Statistikai Hivatal, Nepessegtudomanyi Kutato Intezet, Kutatasi Jelentesei, Keleti Karoly Utca 5-7, 1525 Budapest II, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20077 Hirosima, Kiyosi; Oe, Moriyuki; Yamamoto, Chizuko; Kojima, Katsuhisa. Household projections for Japan: 1990-2010. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 49, No. 3, Oct 1993. 72-86 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Household projections are made for Japan for the period 1990-2010 by age. The methodology used to make the projections and the assumptions on which they are based are explained.
Correspondence: K. Hirosima, Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20078 Mali. Direction Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Informatique. Bureau Central de Recensement (Bamako, Mali). Mali general census of population and housing. Analysis. Part 6: perspectives of the resident population of Mali from 1987 to 2022. [Recensement general de la population et de l'habitat au Mali. Analyse. Tome 6: perspectives de la population residente du Mali de 1987 a 2022.] Jun 1992. 286 pp. Bamako, Mali. In Fre.
This publication presents population estimates and projections up to the year 2022 for Mali, based on results from the 1987 census. The projections are provided separately by age and sex, for the rural and urban population, and by region.
Correspondence: Direction Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Informatique, Bureau Central de Recensement, Ministere du Plan, Bamako, Mali. Location: Northwestern University Library, Evanston, IL. Source: Northwestern University Library Acquisitions, 1994.

60:20079 Ordorica Mellado, Manuel. The population of Mexico in the dawn of the twenty-first century: prediction or projection? [La poblacion de Mexico en los albores del siglo XXI: prediccion o proyeccion?] Comercio Exterior, Vol. 43, No. 7, Jul 1993. 634-41 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
The author reviews and compares various projections of Mexico's population growth, beginning with the UN projection published in 1954 and concluding with a 1993 study conducted by CONAPO (the Consejo Nacional de Poblacion). He then examines the impact of such growth on the country's social and economic structure.
Correspondence: M. Ordorica Mellado, El Colegio de Mexico, Centro de Estudios Demograficos y de Desarrollo Urbano, Camino al Ajusco 20, 10740 Mexico City, DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

60:20080 Shaw, Chris. 1991-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries. Population Trends, No. 72, Summer 1993. 45-50 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The 1991-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 57.6 million in mid-1991 to over 62 million in around forty years' time before starting to decline. The annual rate of increase is projected to be 0.4 per cent in the early years of the projection, and then to fall steadily. There will be a gradual shift to an older age distribution with, in particular, the number of persons aged 75 and over projected to double by the middle of the next century. Compared with the previous (1989-based) projections, important changes have been made to the underlying assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality, and migration, and these combine to produce some significant changes in the results of the projections."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20081 Tabah, Leon. World population prospects. [L'avenir de la population mondiale.] In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal 1993, Volume 2. 1993. 235-47 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Fre.
The author summarizes both what is known and what is still only conjectural about future trends in world population growth in this introduction to a conference session on the topic.
Correspondence: L. Tabah, 9 avenue Franco-Russe, 75007 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20082 United Kingdom. Government Actuary's Department (London, England). National population projections: a new methodology for determining migration assumptions. OPCS Occasional Paper, No. 42, ISBN 1-85774-181-1. 1993. iii, 26 pp. London, England. In Eng.
This study outlines changes in assumptions concerning trends in both international and internal migration in the United Kingdom, used for the purpose of making population projections. These changes affect projections for the United Kingdom as a whole and for the four constituent countries. The effects on estimates of the age and sex distribution of the population are also discussed.
Correspondence: Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, St. Catherine's House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20083 United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa [ECA]. Population Division (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia). Consistency of United Nations' projections with those produced by selected ECA member states. No. POP/TP/93/3[2(b)1X], Jun 1993. 26 pp. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In Eng.
"The present study on consistency between population projections prepared by the United Nations and selected [African ECA] member States found that differences, which were substantial for some countries, exist between the two sets of projections. The basic reasons for the differences [are] related to alternative assessments of: (a) the bench-mark data on population sizes and (b) the bench-mark estimates and projections on fertility, mortality and migration."
Correspondence: UN Economic Commission for Africa, Population Division, P.O. Box 3001, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20084 van Hoorn, W. D. The future population development of the Dutch provinces. [De toekomstige bevolkingsontwikkeling van de provincies.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 42, No. 1, Jan 1994. 14-6 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Population size and growth rates for provinces in the Netherlands are analyzed using data from official sources. The emphasis is on provincial differences in probable growth rates up to the year 2015.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20085 Wirakartakusumah, M. Djuhari. Demographic transitions in Indonesia and its implications in the 21st century. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population: Montreal 1993, Volume 2. 1993. 259-76 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
The author reviews findings from the 1990 Indonesian census and from population projections made by the University of Indonesia's Demographic Institute, with a focus on recent demographic changes and implications for the next century. Aspects considered include fertility and mortality changes, the size of the elderly population, demands for urban employment, improvements in education, illness at older ages, and women in the labor force.
Correspondence: M. D. Wirakartakusumah, Universitas Indonesia, Fakultas Ekonomi, Lembaga Demografi, P.O.B. 295, J1. Salemba Raya 4, Jakarta, Indonesia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20086 Zeng, Yi; Wang, Zhenglian; Ma, Zhongdong; Chen, Chunju. A simple method for modelling and projecting demographic rates. Institute of Population Research Working Paper, No. 16, [1993?]. 21 pp. Peking University, Institute of Population Research: Beijing, China. In Eng.
A method for modeling and projecting age- and duration-specific demographic rates is proposed. The method "links analytically the parameters [alpha] and [beta] in the Brass Relational Gompertz model with median and interquartile range." It is tested using a selection of data concerning China and other countries around the world.
Correspondence: Peking University, Institute of Population Research, Beijing 100871, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

60:20087 Nejasmic, Ivica. Depopulation in Croatia: roots, current situation, and trends. [Depopulacija u Hrvatskoj: korijeni, stanje, izgledi.] ISBN 86-343-0663-0. 1991. 344 pp. Globus Nakladni Zavod: Zagreb, Croatia; Sveuciliste u Zagrebu, Institut za Migracije i Narodnosti: Zagreb, Croatia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
"The study analyses the causes, traits and implications of demographic regression in Croatia in the period from the middle of the 19th century to 1981." Three distinct phases of depopulation are identified, the period up to 1910, 1910-1948, and the period from 1948 to 1981. The author examines the demographic impact of epidemics and wars as well as emigration. The demographic consequences of population decline for the regions of origin are analyzed.
Correspondence: Globus Nakladni Zavod, Ilica 12, 41000 Zagreb, Croatia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20088 Zlotnik, Hania. Latin America and Mexico in the global population panorama. [America Latina y Mexico ante el panorama de la poblacion mundial.] Comercio Exterior, Vol. 43, No. 7, Jul 1993. 625-33 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
The author presents global population growth and infant mortality statistics and projections for the period 1960-2025. The focus is on the demographics of Latin America, and especially of Mexico, in comparison with other developing countries. She finds that Mexico's demographic transition has progressed rapidly despite its relatively late start.
Correspondence: H. Zlotnik, UN Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).


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