Volume 60 - Number 1 - Spring 1994

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

60:10090 Andreev, Eugenii; Darskij, Leonid; Kharkova, Tatiana. A review of population trends in the USSR. 1920-1959. [L'histoire de la population de l'URSS. 1920-1959.] Annales de Demographie Historique, 1992. 61-150 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The authors use recently accessible data to critically analyze official demographic data sources in the Soviet Union during the period 1920-1959. Consideration is given to census quality, birth and death registration, data reliability and bias, and the possibility of data alteration and manipulation. After correcting the data for bias, they reconstruct the population, focusing on fertility and mortality trends, demographic indicators, and age distribution. Political factors and their effect on data collection and analysis are also discussed.
This is a translation of the Russian article in Istorija Statistiki (Moscow, USSR), No. 3-5, 1990.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:10091 Blum, Alain; Ely, Maite; Zakharov, Serge. Soviet demography 1920-1950, rediscovered. [Demographie sovietique--1920-1950, une redecouverte.] Annales de Demographie Historique, 1992. 7-22 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
Using data recently made available, the authors describe demographic trends in the Soviet Union during the period 1920-1950. They note that while short-term demographic changes followed the political climate, long-term changes seem to be independent of political factors. Reasons for this dichotomy are discussed.
Correspondence: A. Blum, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

60:10097 Andriot, Donna; Andriot, Jay; Andriot, Jeanne; Andriot, Laurie. Population abstract of the United States. 1993. 1,080 pp. Documents Index: McLean, Virginia. In Eng.
This volume provides current and historical data on population size in the United States. The statistics are presented by state, and include "a breakdown of urban and rural population from the earliest census to the present; current and historical population totals for all counties and incorporated places of 10,000 or more; and 1990 population totals for county subdivisions and places....An extensive index lists all places included in this work, followed by the county and state in which each is located. The Rank and Population tables follow the index. These rankings are divided into two sections, one for counties and one for cities."
Correspondence: Documents Index, Box 195, McLean, VA 22101. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:10098 Buschenfeld, Herbert. Results of the 1991 population census in Yugoslavia. [Ergebnisse der Volkszahlung 1991 in Jugoslawien.] Osteuropa, Vol. 42, No. 12, Dec 1992. 1,095-101 pp. Stuttgart, Germany. In Ger.
Results are presented from the March 1991 census of Yugoslavia, which was the last census taken before the breakup of the country. Information is included on population size, growth, and geographic distribution.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

60:10105 Bruns, Gerd. Error analysis of population projections with special reference to migration. [Fehleranalyse von Bevolkerungsprognosen unter besonderer Berucksichtigung der Migration.] Sonderforschungsbereich 178, Internationalisierung der Wirtschaft, Diskussionsbeitrage, Serie II, No. 145, Jun 1991. 39 pp. Universitat Konstanz, Fakultat fur Wirtschaftswissenschaften und Statistik: Konstanz, Germany. In Ger.
The accuracy of UN population projections for 101 countries for the period 1960-1980 is evaluated. Various techniques for measuring errors are first outlined. The accuracy of the projections is then assessed, with special attention given to the effects of migration, the time frame of the projections, and several country-specific factors.
Correspondence: Universitat Konstanz, Fakultat fur Wirtschaftswissenschaften und Statistik, Postfach 5560, 7750 Konstanz, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:10106 Bruns, Gerd. Multinational population forecasts with special reference to migration. [Multinationale Bevolkerungsprognosen unter besonderer Berucksichtigung der Migration.] Sonderforschungsbereich 178, Internationalisierung der Wirtschaft, Diskussionsbeitrage, Serie II, No. 172, Mar 1992. 50 pp. Universitat Konstanz, Fakultat fur Wirtschaftswissenschaften und Statistik: Konstanz, Germany. In Ger.
Multinational population projections for Germany, Spain, and Turkey are presented for the period 1995-2100. The projections are based on the cohort component model and incorporate varying assumptions concerning migration. Alternative projections using a stochastic model are also provided.
Correspondence: Universitat Konstanz, Fakultat fur Wirtschaftswissenschaften und Statistik, Postfach 5560, 7750 Konstanz, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

60:10121 Cabre, Anna M. The role of migration in population growth in Catalonia, 1880-1980. [Les migracions en la reproduccio de la poblacio catalana, 1880-1980.] Documents d'Analisi Geografica, No. 19-20, 1991-1992. 33-55 pp. Barcelona, Spain. In Cat. with sum. in Eng; Fre; Spa.
"This article is based on the author's recent study: 'The reproduction of Catalan cohorts, 1856-1960', conceived in answer to the book by J. A. Vandellos, [titled] Catalunya, poble decadent. The main conclusions are that, in contradiction to Vandellos' assertions, the Catalan population would not have decreased in the absence of immigration and, on the contrary, the present population would be considerably higher than in 1900. Nevertheless, 60% of the demographic growth during the last hundred years can be counted...[by] immigration which, alone, has sufficed to maintain population even if no births had occurred."
Correspondence: A. M. Cabre, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Departament de Geografia, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

60:10122 Nejasmic, Ivica. Basic characteristics of depopulation in Croatia in the period 1953-1981. [Osnovne znacajke depopulacije u Hrvatskoj u razdoblju 1953-1981.] Sociologija Sela, Vol. 28, No. 107-108, Jan-Jun 1990. 33-50 pp. Zagreb, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng; Ger.
Trends in population decrease in Croatia during the period 1953-1981 are analyzed. The author notes that by 1981, 82.4% of all settlements had experienced a population decline, the majority occurring in rural areas. Demographic characteristics of depopulated areas are examined, including age and sex distribution and educational status. Data are from official and other published sources.
Correspondence: I. Nejasmic, Sveucilista u Zagrebu, Institut za Migracije i Narodnosti, P.O. Box 294, Trnjanska b.b., 41000 Zagreb, Croatia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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