Volume 59 - Number 4 - Winter 1993

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

59:40071 Duncan, S. R.; Scott, Susan; Duncan, C. J. Time series analysis of oscillations in a model population: the effects of plague, pestilence and famine. Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol. 158, No. 3, 1992. 293-311 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"We present here the results of time series analysis of the baptism, marriage and burial registers of a single parish and develop a model of the events to explain the different oscillations observed." The town of Penrith (Cumbria), England, is studied for the period 1557-1812. "Time series analysis of the records of this semi-isolated population over 250 years reveals three different types of oscillatory behaviour; furthermore the system remained in steady state for some 200 years before an abrupt transition to a period of exponential growth during the last 50 years of the period under study."
Correspondence: C. J. Duncan, University of Liverpool, Department of Environmental and Evolutionary Biology, Liverpool L69 3BX, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

59:40072 Finland. Tilastokeskus (Helsinki, Finland). Population in communities and municipalities, December 31, 1992. [Vakiluku kunnittain ja suuruusjarjestyksessa 31.12.1992/Befolkning kommunvis och i storleksordning 31.12.1992.] Vaesto/Befolkning/Population 1993, No. 6, 1993. 23 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Fin; Swe.
Population estimates are presented by sex for Finland's small localities, including communities and municipalities.
Correspondence: Tilastokeskus, PL 504, 00101 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40073 Letamo, Gobopamang. The application of indirect techniques of estimation to evaluate Botswana's 1971 population census and the adjustment of the intercensal growth rates from 1964 to 1971 and 1971 to 1981. Population Review, Vol. 37, No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1993. 46-51 pp. La Jolla, California. In Eng.
"The aim of this paper is to asses [Botswana's] intercensal growth rates and the population totals for 1964, 1971, and 1981 so that they can be reconciled to obtain plausible demographic parameters, including intercensal growth rates....Although the results so far obtained could not be claimed to provide hard evidence of the under-count in the 1971 census which in turn gave implausible growth rates, there is persuasive but not conclusive evidence to the effect that the 1971 Census was undercounted."
Correspondence: G. Letamo, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH 43402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40074 Ngondo a Pitshandenge, S.; de Saint Moulin, L.; Tambashe Oleko, B. The population of Zaire on the eve of the elections of 1993 and 1994. [La population du Zaire a la veille des elections de 1993 et 1994.] Zaire-Afrique, No. 268, 1992. 487-506 pp. Kinshasa, Zaire. In Fre.
The authors attempt to provide estimates of the population of Zaire and of those eligible to vote in forthcoming elections by region, subregion, zone, and collective. The data are from available official sources, including the 1984 census.
Correspondence: S. Ngondo a Pitshandenge, Universite de Kinshasa, Departement de Demographie, BP 176, Kinshasa XI, Zaire. Location: Yale University, Sterling Library, New Haven, CT.

59:40075 Stadel, Christoph. Canada's population in 1991: first results of the June 1991 census. Erde, Vol. 123, No. 3, 1992. 251-7 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
Some preliminary results are presented from the 1991 census of Canada. Attention is given to provincial differences and to the relative impact of natural increase and migration on population growth.
Correspondence: C. Stadel, Universitat Salzburg, Geographisches Institut, Hellbrunner Strasse 34, 5020 Salzburg, Austria. Location: New York Public Library, New York, NY.

59:40076 United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis (New York, New York). World population prospects: the 1992 revision. No. ST/ESA/SER.A/135, Pub. Order No. E.93.XIII.7. ISBN 92-1-151253-0. 1993. xiv, 677 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This volume presents the results of the United Nations 1992 Revision of the global population estimates and projections for the world, the more developed and the less developed regions, major areas and countries, including urban and rural areas, and major cities." The data are also available in machine-readable format. The report includes descriptions of the current demographic situation, projections for the future, and the demographic impact of AIDS in 15 African countries.
Correspondence: UN Department of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

59:40077 Blanchet, Didier. Can population forecasts be trusted. [Fiabilite des perspectives demographiques.] Revue d'Economie Financiere, No. 23, Winter 1992. 81-8 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author examines the credibility of current population forecasts for France. The focus is on concern for the future viability of the social security program in light of projected demographic aging. The author concludes that these forecasts are robust, and that the only solutions might be found in either prolonging active labor force participation, which has not been achieved before, or in increasing levels of contribution during the working years.
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

59:40078 Bouvier, Leon F.; Martin, John L. Four hundred million Americans! The latest Census Bureau projections. Center for Immigration Studies Backgrounder, No. 1-93, Jan 1993. 14 pp. Center for Immigration Studies: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors comment on the latest population projections released by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. "The Bureau projects that by the year 2050, less than sixty years from today, the population of the United States will have grown by over an additional 130 million persons to 383 [million persons]....The new governmental report is especially noteworthy when compared to its last previous projection released less than four years ago. According to the Census Bureau's 1989 medium scenario, the U.S. population would peak in 2040 at 302 million and then begin to fall to 292 million, by 2080."
Correspondence: Center for Immigration Studies, 1815 H Street NW, Suite 1010, Washington, D.C. 20006-3604. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40079 Campbell, Burnham O.; Mason, Andrew; Pernia, Ernesto M. The economic impact of demographic change in Thailand, 1980-2015: an application of the HOMES household forecasting model. ISBN 0-86638-135-X. LC 93-16845. 1993. xxiv, 357 pp. East-West Center: Honolulu, Hawaii; Asian Development Bank: Manila, Philippines. In Eng.
"This report summarizes demographic trends, household projections, and substantive findings from six studies undertaken as part of a project, Demographic and Economic Forecasting Pilot Study for Thailand, organized and funded by the Asian Development Bank. The purpose of the project was to provide a household projections package, HOMES, to the National Economic and Social Development Board and the National Statistical Office of Thailand, to train staff to use the package, and to explore the ways in which detailed household projections can be used to improve economic forecasting and planning."
Correspondence: East-West Center, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40080 Day, Jennifer C. Population projections of the United States, by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin: 1992 to 2050. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1092, Nov 1992. xxx, 65 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Population projections are presented for the United States up to the year 2050. The projections "are consistent with the 1990 census as enumerated. This is the first projections report which presents data for four race groups (White; Black; American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut; and Asian and Pacific Islander) and the Hispanic origin population. The race groups also are separated into their Hispanic and Not Hispanic components."
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-9328. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40081 de Beer, J.; de Jong, A.; Visser, H. National household forecasts 1993. [Nationale huishoudensprognose 1993.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 41, No. 8, Aug 1993. 13-23 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Revised household population forecasts for the Netherlands are presented for 1993, based on recent data from the Annual Household Statistics. "According to the 1993 household forecasts the number of households will increase from 6.2 million in 1992 to 7.3 million in 2010. The main source of the increase is the rise of the number of one-person households from 1.9 million to 2.7 million. As a result the number of households will increase more strongly than population size. Whereas population size in 2010 will be 11% higher than in 1992, the number of households will rise by 17%."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40082 de Beer, Joop. Uncertainty variants of population forecasts. Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Vol. 9, No. 3, 1992. 233-53 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"When using population forecasts it is important to take into account the degree of uncertainty of the results. For that reason the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics publishes low and high variants next to the most probable medium variant....The width of the interval between the variants is based on an analysis of previous forecast errors. The degree of uncertainty of the various forecast results turns out to vary strongly....On the basis of a statistical time-series model of forecast errors of total population growth, a confidence interval of total population size can be estimated."
Correspondence: J. de Beer, Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Population Statistics, Postbus 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (UN).

59:40083 de Gans, Henk A. Breaking into time? Problems of time in demographic forecasting. PDOD Paper, No. 21, Jul 1993. 27 pp. Universiteit van Amsterdam, Postdoctorale Onderzoekersopleiding Demografie [PDOD]: Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
Population forecasting problems caused by the lack of a social theory of time are discussed and illustrated. The 1895 population forecasts for England and Wales prepared by Edwin Cannan are used as a case study.
Correspondence: Universiteit van Amsterdam, Planologisch en Demografisch Instituut, Postdoctorale Onderzoekersopleiding Demografie, Nieuwe Prinsengracht 130, 1018 VZ Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40084 Duchesne, Louis. A method of population projection using multiregional components. Population projections by sex and age for medium-sized and small areas. An application to regions in Chile, 1980-2000. [Metodo de proyecciones de poblacion por componentes multirregionales. Proyecciones de poblacion por sexo y edad para areas intermedias y menores. Aplicacion a las regiones de Chile, 1980-2000.] CELADE Serie OI, No. 60, Pub. Order No. LC/DEM/G.111. Oct 1991. 85 pp. Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas [INE]: Santiago, Chile; UN Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
The component method is adapted to making population projections at the local level by including data on internal migration. The author applies the method to data for Chile to make regional projections up to the year 2000.
Correspondence: UN Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas, Casilla 7597, Correo 3, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40085 Finland. Tilastokeskus (Helsinki, Finland). Population projections, 1993-2030. [Vaestoennusteet, 1993-2030/Befolkningsprognoser, 1993-2030.] Vaesto/Befolkning/Population 1993, No. 10, Summer 1993. 37 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Fin. with sum. in Eng; Swe.
"This publication presents three population projections for Finland [up to the year 2030]. The medium calculation presents the most probable trend for the time being. The high and the low alternative describe trends which also are possible in the light of past population development."
Correspondence: Tilastokeskus, PL 504, 00101 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40086 Heligman, Larry; Chen, Nancy; Babakol, Ozer. Shifts in the structure of population and deaths in less developed regions. In: The epidemiological transition: policy planning and implications for developing countries, edited by James N. Gribble and Samuel H. Preston. 1993. 9-41 pp. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper focuses on describing the changes in certain population characteristics projected to take place during the next quarter-century in Africa, developing regions of Asia and Oceania, and Latin America. To put these projected changes into a context, changes during the past 25 years are also described. In particular, we describe past and projected changes in (1) the number of people, growth, and age structures of population residing in the total, urban, and rural sectors of these major areas; and (2) life-table mortality patterns, numbers dying, and the age structure of deaths for these regions, including the potential implications of the AIDS pandemic in Africa. Because Africa exhibits very high mortality and there is greater uncertainty with respect to future trends, a special section is included on African mortality....The major sources of data considered for this paper are the 1990 revisions of the official United Nations total, urban, and rural population projections for countries of the world...."
Correspondence: L. Heligman, United Nations, Population Division, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40087 Honduras. Secretaria de Planificacion, Coordinacion y Presupuesto. Departamento de Poblacion (Tegucigalpa, Honduras). Population projections for Honduras by sex and age, 1988-2050. By year 1988-2010 and by five-year period 2015-2050. [Proyecciones de poblacion de Honduras por sexo y edad 1988-2050. Anuales 1988-2010 y quinquenales 2015 a 2050.] Sep 1992. 91 pp. Tegucigalpa, Honduras. In Spa.
Population projections are presented for Honduras by sex and age up to the year 2050. A description of the methodology used is included.
Correspondence: Secretaria de Planificacion, Coordinacion y Presupuesto, Departamento de Poblacion, Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40088 Jia, Shan. The provincial variations in the aging process and its implications in China by provinces. Center for the Study of Population Working Paper, No. 93-100, Dec 1992. 49, [5] pp. Florida State University, College of Social Sciences, Center for the Study of Population: Tallahassee, Florida. In Eng.
"The primary concern of this paper is to project and analyze the different ways the aging process will happen in each province of China by using appropriate assumptions for the demographic conditions of each province."
Correspondence: Robert H. Weller, Editor, Working Paper Series, Florida State University, Center for the Study of Population, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40089 Keilman, Nico; Cruijsen, Harri. National population forecasting in industrialized countries. NIDI/CBGS Publication, No. 24, ISBN 90-265-1304-6. LC 93-108670. 1992. 365 pp. Swets and Zeitlinger: Berwyn, Pennsylvania/Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This book gives a detailed account of the current practices that statistical agencies in thirty industrialized countries follow in producing official population forecasts at the national level. International comparisons are given for methodological aspects and for assumption levels regarding fertility, mortality and international migration. In addition, new approaches for modelling and extrapolating fertility, for the use of birth expectations, for the analysis of mortality, and for handling forecast uncertainty are presented. The book concludes with discussions on research needs and future aspects regarding national population forecasting."
Correspondence: Swets and Zeitlinger, Heveweg 347B, 2161 CA Lisse, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40090 Ketkar, Kusum W. A log-linear approach to disaggregated micro-level population forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 6, No. 2, Jul 1990. 241-51 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper proposes the use of a log-linear model to obtain long-range micro-level population projections from the aggregative projections. The proposed model is tested using U.S. data. The total population of households is decomposed into 120 subgroups on the basis of the household's region of location, age, size and the female's employment status. The estimated number of households from the log-linear technique is compared against the random-walk and time-trend methods. A comparison of the size of the observed and estimated subgroups for the years 1960 and 1980 suggests that the log-linear technique is superior to the other two methods. Five different measures of errors are used to evaluate the projections."
Correspondence: K. W. Ketkar, Seton Hall University, W. Paul Stillman School of Business, Department of Economics, South Orange, NJ 07079-2696. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40091 Korcelli, Piotr. Regional population projections: a multiple base-point approach. Geographia Polonica, No. 59, 1992. 21-32 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
Some alternative population projections are presented for Poland's major regions, based on a series of selected base years from 1977 to 1985. The author "interprets the corresponding observed demographic patterns as alternative model patterns on which consecutive projection runs are based." The projections, which are extended to 2050, exclude estimates for international migration.
Correspondence: P. Korcelli, Polish Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Krakowskie Przedmiescie 30, 00-927 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

59:40092 Kupiszewski, Marek. Multiregional demographic projections: Polish experiences. School of Geography Working Paper, No. 92/22, [1992]. 22 pp. University of Leeds, School of Geography: Leeds, England. In Eng.
The use of multiregional population projection methods in Poland in the 1980s is evaluated.
Correspondence: University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40093 Kupiszewski, Marek. The projection of the population number and structure in the Katowice region against current demographic trends. Geographia Polonica, No. 59, 1992. 155-64 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
This is an analysis of population characteristics and trends in Katowice, a region of southern Poland, with a focus on population projections up to 2044.
Correspondence: M. Kupiszewski, Polish Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

59:40094 Lecaillon, Jean-Didier. Are demographers wrong? [Les demographes se trompent-ils.] Defense Nationale, Vol. 49, No. 4, Apr 1993. 67-74 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author reviews the ability of demographers to project future rates of population growth. The distinction between projections and forecasts is established. The author also points out that populations can continue to grow in numbers, even though fertility is below replacement level, because of demographic inertia. The need to interpret demographic data with care for policy purposes is stressed.
Correspondence: J.-D. Lecaillon, Universite de Nancy II, 25 rue Baron Louis, BP 454, 54001 Nancy Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

59:40095 Lutz, Wolfgang; Prinz, Christopher; Langgassner, Jeannette. World population projections and possible ecological feedbacks. Popnet, No. 23, Summer 1993. 11 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"This issue...highlights some of the recent IIASA work on global population projections and relates them to the issue of global environmental change....Usually, population projections are based on the assumption that the...components are independent and that there are no feedbacks from certain outcomes (population size, age structure, regional distributions) on fertility, mortality, and migration....We attempt to define scenarios that explicitly assume feedbacks."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40096 O'Leary, John. Population and household projections for Australia, states and territories, 1991 to 2031. Demographic Information Paper, No. 6, ISBN 0-7306-3096-X. Sep 1992. ix, 103 pp. Victorian Department of the Treasury: Melbourne, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper describes population projections for the States and Territories of Australia and a set of household projections for Victoria and Australia....These projections provide population estimates by age and sex as at June from 1992 to 2031....Estimates of households are provided for Australia as a whole and for Victoria."
Correspondence: Victorian Department of the Treasury, 1 Treasury Place, Melbourne, 3002 Victoria, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40097 Oe, Moriyuki. A method for projecting households by family type in terms of headship cohort change. Part 1: a proposal of the net transition rate method by family type. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 49, No. 1, Apr 1993. 39-46 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
A new method for projecting households in Japan is proposed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

59:40098 Albrecht, Don E. The renewal of population loss in the nonmetropolitan Great Plains. Rural Sociology, Vol. 58, No. 2, Summer 1993. 233-46 pp. Bozeman, Montana. In Eng.
"An analysis of population trends in 293 nonmetropolitan Great Plains counties [of the United States] from 1950 to 1990 reveals that the population turnaround of the 1970s has indeed ended. During the 1980s, 84 percent of these nonmetropolitan counties had total population declines, a proportion greater than any other decade studied. A majority of counties had natural population increase, but such increases were offset by net outmigration as 96 percent of the counties had such losses during the 1980s....The most important variable in producing positive population trends was the ability of the county to attract retirement migrants."
Correspondence: D. E. Albrecht, Texas A & M University, Department of Rural Sociology, College Station, TX 77843. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:40099 Johnson, Kenneth M. When deaths exceed births: natural decrease in the United States. International Regional Science Review, Vol. 15, No. 2, 1993. 179-98 pp. Morgantown, West Virginia. In Eng.
"This article delineates the incidence and regional variation [in the United States] of natural decrease since 1950, considers the demographic factors that caused natural decrease, assesses each factor's relative impact, identifies shared characteristics of areas experiencing natural decrease, and considers the implications of natural decrease." Factors considered include shifts in the age structure, fertility declines, increases in mortality, and migration.
Correspondence: K. M. Johnson, Loyola University, Department of Sociology, Chicago, IL 60626. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).


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