59:40071 Duncan, S.
R.; Scott, Susan; Duncan, C. J. Time series analysis of
oscillations in a model population: the effects of plague, pestilence
and famine. Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol. 158, No. 3, 1992.
293-311 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"We present here the results
of time series analysis of the baptism, marriage and burial registers
of a single parish and develop a model of the events to explain the
different oscillations observed." The town of Penrith (Cumbria),
England, is studied for the period 1557-1812. "Time series analysis of
the records of this semi-isolated population over 250 years reveals
three different types of oscillatory behaviour; furthermore the system
remained in steady state for some 200 years before an abrupt transition
to a period of exponential growth during the last 50 years of the
period under study."
Correspondence: C. J. Duncan,
University of Liverpool, Department of Environmental and Evolutionary
Biology, Liverpool L69 3BX, England. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
59:40072 Finland.
Tilastokeskus (Helsinki, Finland). Population in
communities and municipalities, December 31, 1992. [Vakiluku
kunnittain ja suuruusjarjestyksessa 31.12.1992/Befolkning kommunvis och
i storleksordning 31.12.1992.] Vaesto/Befolkning/Population 1993, No.
6, 1993. 23 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Fin; Swe.
Population
estimates are presented by sex for Finland's small localities,
including communities and municipalities.
Correspondence:
Tilastokeskus, PL 504, 00101 Helsinki, Finland. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:40073 Letamo,
Gobopamang. The application of indirect techniques of
estimation to evaluate Botswana's 1971 population census and the
adjustment of the intercensal growth rates from 1964 to 1971 and 1971
to 1981. Population Review, Vol. 37, No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1993. 46-51
pp. La Jolla, California. In Eng.
"The aim of this paper is to
asses [Botswana's] intercensal growth rates and the population totals
for 1964, 1971, and 1981 so that they can be reconciled to obtain
plausible demographic parameters, including intercensal growth
rates....Although the results so far obtained could not be claimed to
provide hard evidence of the under-count in the 1971 census which in
turn gave implausible growth rates, there is persuasive but not
conclusive evidence to the effect that the 1971 Census was
undercounted."
Correspondence: G. Letamo, Bowling Green
State University, Bowling Green, OH 43402. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
59:40074 Ngondo a
Pitshandenge, S.; de Saint Moulin, L.; Tambashe Oleko, B.
The population of Zaire on the eve of the elections of 1993 and
1994. [La population du Zaire a la veille des elections de 1993 et
1994.] Zaire-Afrique, No. 268, 1992. 487-506 pp. Kinshasa, Zaire. In
Fre.
The authors attempt to provide estimates of the population of
Zaire and of those eligible to vote in forthcoming elections by region,
subregion, zone, and collective. The data are from available official
sources, including the 1984 census.
Correspondence: S.
Ngondo a Pitshandenge, Universite de Kinshasa, Departement de
Demographie, BP 176, Kinshasa XI, Zaire. Location: Yale
University, Sterling Library, New Haven, CT.
59:40075 Stadel,
Christoph. Canada's population in 1991: first results of
the June 1991 census. Erde, Vol. 123, No. 3, 1992. 251-7 pp.
Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
Some preliminary results are presented
from the 1991 census of Canada. Attention is given to provincial
differences and to the relative impact of natural increase and
migration on population growth.
Correspondence: C. Stadel,
Universitat Salzburg, Geographisches Institut, Hellbrunner Strasse 34,
5020 Salzburg, Austria. Location: New York Public Library, New
York, NY.
59:40076 United
Nations. Department of Economic and Social Information and Policy
Analysis (New York, New York). World population prospects:
the 1992 revision. No. ST/ESA/SER.A/135, Pub. Order No.
E.93.XIII.7. ISBN 92-1-151253-0. 1993. xiv, 677 pp. New York, New York.
In Eng.
"This volume presents the results of the United Nations
1992 Revision of the global population estimates and projections for
the world, the more developed and the less developed regions, major
areas and countries, including urban and rural areas, and major
cities." The data are also available in machine-readable format. The
report includes descriptions of the current demographic situation,
projections for the future, and the demographic impact of AIDS in 15
African countries.
Correspondence: UN Department of
Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, United Nations,
New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
59:40077 Blanchet,
Didier. Can population forecasts be trusted.
[Fiabilite des perspectives demographiques.] Revue d'Economie
Financiere, No. 23, Winter 1992. 81-8 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author examines the credibility of current population forecasts
for France. The focus is on concern for the future viability of the
social security program in light of projected demographic aging. The
author concludes that these forecasts are robust, and that the only
solutions might be found in either prolonging active labor force
participation, which has not been achieved before, or in increasing
levels of contribution during the working
years.
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Institut National
d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14,
France. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library,
Washington, D.C.
59:40078 Bouvier,
Leon F.; Martin, John L. Four hundred million Americans!
The latest Census Bureau projections. Center for Immigration
Studies Backgrounder, No. 1-93, Jan 1993. 14 pp. Center for Immigration
Studies: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors comment on the latest
population projections released by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. "The
Bureau projects that by the year 2050, less than sixty years from
today, the population of the United States will have grown by over an
additional 130 million persons to 383 [million persons]....The new
governmental report is especially noteworthy when compared to its last
previous projection released less than four years ago. According to
the Census Bureau's 1989 medium scenario, the U.S. population would
peak in 2040 at 302 million and then begin to fall to 292 million, by
2080."
Correspondence: Center for Immigration Studies, 1815
H Street NW, Suite 1010, Washington, D.C. 20006-3604.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:40079 Campbell,
Burnham O.; Mason, Andrew; Pernia, Ernesto M. The economic
impact of demographic change in Thailand, 1980-2015: an application of
the HOMES household forecasting model. ISBN 0-86638-135-X. LC
93-16845. 1993. xxiv, 357 pp. East-West Center: Honolulu, Hawaii; Asian
Development Bank: Manila, Philippines. In Eng.
"This report
summarizes demographic trends, household projections, and substantive
findings from six studies undertaken as part of a project, Demographic
and Economic Forecasting Pilot Study for Thailand, organized and funded
by the Asian Development Bank. The purpose of the project was to
provide a household projections package, HOMES, to the National
Economic and Social Development Board and the National Statistical
Office of Thailand, to train staff to use the package, and to explore
the ways in which detailed household projections can be used to improve
economic forecasting and planning."
Correspondence:
East-West Center, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:40080 Day,
Jennifer C. Population projections of the United States,
by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin: 1992 to 2050. Current
Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1092, Nov 1992. xxx, 65 pp. U.S.
Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Population
projections are presented for the United States up to the year 2050.
The projections "are consistent with the 1990 census as enumerated.
This is the first projections report which presents data for four race
groups (White; Black; American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut; and Asian and
Pacific Islander) and the Hispanic origin population. The race groups
also are separated into their Hispanic and Not Hispanic
components."
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing
Office, Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C.
20402-9328. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:40081 de Beer,
J.; de Jong, A.; Visser, H. National household forecasts
1993. [Nationale huishoudensprognose 1993.] Maandstatistiek van de
Bevolking, Vol. 41, No. 8, Aug 1993. 13-23 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands.
In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Revised household population forecasts
for the Netherlands are presented for 1993, based on recent data from
the Annual Household Statistics. "According to the 1993 household
forecasts the number of households will increase from 6.2 million in
1992 to 7.3 million in 2010. The main source of the increase is the
rise of the number of one-person households from 1.9 million to 2.7
million. As a result the number of households will increase more
strongly than population size. Whereas population size in 2010 will be
11% higher than in 1992, the number of households will rise by
17%."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:40082 de Beer,
Joop. Uncertainty variants of population forecasts.
Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for
Europe, Vol. 9, No. 3, 1992. 233-53 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"When using population forecasts it is important to take into
account the degree of uncertainty of the results. For that reason the
Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics publishes low and high
variants next to the most probable medium variant....The width of the
interval between the variants is based on an analysis of previous
forecast errors. The degree of uncertainty of the various forecast
results turns out to vary strongly....On the basis of a statistical
time-series model of forecast errors of total population growth, a
confidence interval of total population size can be
estimated."
Correspondence: J. de Beer, Netherlands Central
Bureau of Statistics, Department of Population Statistics, Postbus 959,
2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University
Library (UN).
59:40083 de Gans,
Henk A. Breaking into time? Problems of time in
demographic forecasting. PDOD Paper, No. 21, Jul 1993. 27 pp.
Universiteit van Amsterdam, Postdoctorale Onderzoekersopleiding
Demografie [PDOD]: Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
Population
forecasting problems caused by the lack of a social theory of time are
discussed and illustrated. The 1895 population forecasts for England
and Wales prepared by Edwin Cannan are used as a case
study.
Correspondence: Universiteit van Amsterdam,
Planologisch en Demografisch Instituut, Postdoctorale
Onderzoekersopleiding Demografie, Nieuwe Prinsengracht 130, 1018 VZ
Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
59:40084 Duchesne,
Louis. A method of population projection using
multiregional components. Population projections by sex and age for
medium-sized and small areas. An application to regions in Chile,
1980-2000. [Metodo de proyecciones de poblacion por componentes
multirregionales. Proyecciones de poblacion por sexo y edad para areas
intermedias y menores. Aplicacion a las regiones de Chile, 1980-2000.]
CELADE Serie OI, No. 60, Pub. Order No. LC/DEM/G.111. Oct 1991. 85 pp.
Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas [INE]: Santiago, Chile; UN Centro
Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
The component method is adapted to making population projections at
the local level by including data on internal migration. The author
applies the method to data for Chile to make regional projections up to
the year 2000.
Correspondence: UN Instituto Nacional de
Estadisticas, Casilla 7597, Correo 3, Santiago, Chile.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:40085 Finland.
Tilastokeskus (Helsinki, Finland). Population projections,
1993-2030. [Vaestoennusteet, 1993-2030/Befolkningsprognoser,
1993-2030.] Vaesto/Befolkning/Population 1993, No. 10, Summer 1993. 37
pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Fin. with sum. in Eng; Swe.
"This
publication presents three population projections for Finland [up to
the year 2030]. The medium calculation presents the most probable
trend for the time being. The high and the low alternative describe
trends which also are possible in the light of past population
development."
Correspondence: Tilastokeskus, PL 504, 00101
Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
59:40086 Heligman,
Larry; Chen, Nancy; Babakol, Ozer. Shifts in the structure
of population and deaths in less developed regions. In: The
epidemiological transition: policy planning and implications for
developing countries, edited by James N. Gribble and Samuel H. Preston.
1993. 9-41 pp. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper focuses on describing the changes in certain population
characteristics projected to take place during the next quarter-century
in Africa, developing regions of Asia and Oceania, and Latin America.
To put these projected changes into a context, changes during the past
25 years are also described. In particular, we describe past and
projected changes in (1) the number of people, growth, and age
structures of population residing in the total, urban, and rural
sectors of these major areas; and (2) life-table mortality patterns,
numbers dying, and the age structure of deaths for these regions,
including the potential implications of the AIDS pandemic in Africa.
Because Africa exhibits very high mortality and there is greater
uncertainty with respect to future trends, a special section is
included on African mortality....The major sources of data considered
for this paper are the 1990 revisions of the official United Nations
total, urban, and rural population projections for countries of the
world...."
Correspondence: L. Heligman, United Nations,
Population Division, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
59:40087 Honduras.
Secretaria de Planificacion, Coordinacion y Presupuesto. Departamento
de Poblacion (Tegucigalpa, Honduras). Population
projections for Honduras by sex and age, 1988-2050. By year 1988-2010
and by five-year period 2015-2050. [Proyecciones de poblacion de
Honduras por sexo y edad 1988-2050. Anuales 1988-2010 y quinquenales
2015 a 2050.] Sep 1992. 91 pp. Tegucigalpa, Honduras. In Spa.
Population projections are presented for Honduras by sex and age up
to the year 2050. A description of the methodology used is
included.
Correspondence: Secretaria de Planificacion,
Coordinacion y Presupuesto, Departamento de Poblacion, Tegucigalpa,
Honduras. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:40088 Jia,
Shan. The provincial variations in the aging process and
its implications in China by provinces. Center for the Study of
Population Working Paper, No. 93-100, Dec 1992. 49, [5] pp. Florida
State University, College of Social Sciences, Center for the Study of
Population: Tallahassee, Florida. In Eng.
"The primary concern of
this paper is to project and analyze the different ways the aging
process will happen in each province of China by using appropriate
assumptions for the demographic conditions of each
province."
Correspondence: Robert H. Weller, Editor,
Working Paper Series, Florida State University, Center for the Study of
Population, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
59:40089 Keilman,
Nico; Cruijsen, Harri. National population forecasting in
industrialized countries. NIDI/CBGS Publication, No. 24, ISBN
90-265-1304-6. LC 93-108670. 1992. 365 pp. Swets and Zeitlinger:
Berwyn, Pennsylvania/Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This book
gives a detailed account of the current practices that statistical
agencies in thirty industrialized countries follow in producing
official population forecasts at the national level. International
comparisons are given for methodological aspects and for assumption
levels regarding fertility, mortality and international migration. In
addition, new approaches for modelling and extrapolating fertility, for
the use of birth expectations, for the analysis of mortality, and for
handling forecast uncertainty are presented. The book concludes with
discussions on research needs and future aspects regarding national
population forecasting."
Correspondence: Swets and
Zeitlinger, Heveweg 347B, 2161 CA Lisse, Netherlands.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:40090 Ketkar,
Kusum W. A log-linear approach to disaggregated
micro-level population forecasts. International Journal of
Forecasting, Vol. 6, No. 2, Jul 1990. 241-51 pp. Amsterdam,
Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper proposes the use of a log-linear
model to obtain long-range micro-level population projections from the
aggregative projections. The proposed model is tested using U.S. data.
The total population of households is decomposed into 120 subgroups on
the basis of the household's region of location, age, size and the
female's employment status. The estimated number of households from the
log-linear technique is compared against the random-walk and time-trend
methods. A comparison of the size of the observed and estimated
subgroups for the years 1960 and 1980 suggests that the log-linear
technique is superior to the other two methods. Five different
measures of errors are used to evaluate the
projections."
Correspondence: K. W. Ketkar, Seton Hall
University, W. Paul Stillman School of Business, Department of
Economics, South Orange, NJ 07079-2696. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
59:40091 Korcelli,
Piotr. Regional population projections: a multiple
base-point approach. Geographia Polonica, No. 59, 1992. 21-32 pp.
Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
Some alternative population projections are
presented for Poland's major regions, based on a series of selected
base years from 1977 to 1985. The author "interprets the corresponding
observed demographic patterns as alternative model patterns on which
consecutive projection runs are based." The projections, which are
extended to 2050, exclude estimates for international
migration.
Correspondence: P. Korcelli, Polish Academy of
Sciences, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Krakowskie
Przedmiescie 30, 00-927 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton
University Library (FST).
59:40092
Kupiszewski, Marek. Multiregional demographic
projections: Polish experiences. School of Geography Working
Paper, No. 92/22, [1992]. 22 pp. University of Leeds, School of
Geography: Leeds, England. In Eng.
The use of multiregional
population projection methods in Poland in the 1980s is
evaluated.
Correspondence: University of Leeds, School of
Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
59:40093
Kupiszewski, Marek. The projection of the
population number and structure in the Katowice region against current
demographic trends. Geographia Polonica, No. 59, 1992. 155-64 pp.
Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
This is an analysis of population
characteristics and trends in Katowice, a region of southern Poland,
with a focus on population projections up to
2044.
Correspondence: M. Kupiszewski, Polish Academy of
Sciences, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Warsaw,
Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).
59:40094 Lecaillon,
Jean-Didier. Are demographers wrong? [Les demographes
se trompent-ils.] Defense Nationale, Vol. 49, No. 4, Apr 1993. 67-74
pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author reviews the ability of
demographers to project future rates of population growth. The
distinction between projections and forecasts is established. The
author also points out that populations can continue to grow in
numbers, even though fertility is below replacement level, because of
demographic inertia. The need to interpret demographic data with care
for policy purposes is stressed.
Correspondence: J.-D.
Lecaillon, Universite de Nancy II, 25 rue Baron Louis, BP 454, 54001
Nancy Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library
(PR).
59:40095 Lutz,
Wolfgang; Prinz, Christopher; Langgassner, Jeannette.
World population projections and possible ecological
feedbacks. Popnet, No. 23, Summer 1993. 11 pp. International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In
Eng.
"This issue...highlights some of the recent IIASA work on
global population projections and relates them to the issue of global
environmental change....Usually, population projections are based on
the assumption that the...components are independent and that there are
no feedbacks from certain outcomes (population size, age structure,
regional distributions) on fertility, mortality, and migration....We
attempt to define scenarios that explicitly assume
feedbacks."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:40096 O'Leary,
John. Population and household projections for Australia,
states and territories, 1991 to 2031. Demographic Information
Paper, No. 6, ISBN 0-7306-3096-X. Sep 1992. ix, 103 pp. Victorian
Department of the Treasury: Melbourne, Australia. In Eng.
"This
paper describes population projections for the States and Territories
of Australia and a set of household projections for Victoria and
Australia....These projections provide population estimates by age and
sex as at June from 1992 to 2031....Estimates of households are
provided for Australia as a whole and for
Victoria."
Correspondence: Victorian Department of the
Treasury, 1 Treasury Place, Melbourne, 3002 Victoria, Australia.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:40097 Oe,
Moriyuki. A method for projecting households by family
type in terms of headship cohort change. Part 1: a proposal of the
net transition rate method by family type. Jinko Mondai
Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 49, No. 1, Apr 1993. 39-46
pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
A new method for projecting households in
Japan is proposed.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
59:40098 Albrecht,
Don E. The renewal of population loss in the
nonmetropolitan Great Plains. Rural Sociology, Vol. 58, No. 2,
Summer 1993. 233-46 pp. Bozeman, Montana. In Eng.
"An analysis of
population trends in 293 nonmetropolitan Great Plains counties [of the
United States] from 1950 to 1990 reveals that the population turnaround
of the 1970s has indeed ended. During the 1980s, 84 percent of these
nonmetropolitan counties had total population declines, a proportion
greater than any other decade studied. A majority of counties had
natural population increase, but such increases were offset by net
outmigration as 96 percent of the counties had such losses during the
1980s....The most important variable in producing positive population
trends was the ability of the county to attract retirement
migrants."
Correspondence: D. E. Albrecht, Texas A & M
University, Department of Rural Sociology, College Station, TX 77843.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:40099 Johnson,
Kenneth M. When deaths exceed births: natural decrease in
the United States. International Regional Science Review, Vol. 15,
No. 2, 1993. 179-98 pp. Morgantown, West Virginia. In Eng.
"This
article delineates the incidence and regional variation [in the United
States] of natural decrease since 1950, considers the demographic
factors that caused natural decrease, assesses each factor's relative
impact, identifies shared characteristics of areas experiencing natural
decrease, and considers the implications of natural decrease." Factors
considered include shifts in the age structure, fertility declines,
increases in mortality, and migration.
Correspondence: K.
M. Johnson, Loyola University, Department of Sociology, Chicago, IL
60626. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).
