Volume 59 - Number 3 - Fall 1993

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

59:30685 Brunborg, Helge; Keilman, Nico. MOSART-H: a combined micro-macro model for simulation of households. Working Papers from Department for Statistics on Individuals and Households: Population and Living Conditions, Vol. 4, 1992. 57-87 pp. Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Eng.
"This paper describes work in progress concerning the construction of MOSART-H, a model which is intended to simulate the dynamics in future household structures in Norway. The model consists of two parts: one for macrosimulation, and one for microsimulation....[The authors also] describe in the paper some of the difficulties...in estimating the input parameters and in the compilation of the initial population."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30686 Courgeau, Daniel; Lelievre, Eva. The event history approach in demography. Population. English Selection, Vol. 3, 1991. 63-79 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
"In the present paper, we shall examine...changes in the field of demography, by following the progression from period analysis to cohort analysis. We shall discuss the hypotheses underlying each of these approaches and show how their distance from actual human behaviour could lead to mistaken or incomplete conclusions. We shall then show how event history analysis can solve these problems and we shall define the hypotheses implied by this new approach. Finally, we shall come back to the complimentarity of the different social sciences."
This is a translation of the article published in 1990 in French and cited in 56:10693.
Correspondence: D. Courgeau, Institut National d' Etudes, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30687 Grummer-Strawn, Laurence M. Regression analysis of current-status data: an application to breast-feeding. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 88, No. 423, Sep 1993. 758-65 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"Although techniques for calculating mean survival time from current-status data are well known, their use in multiple regression models is somewhat troublesome. Using data on current breast-feeding behavior, this article considers a number of techniques that have been suggested in the literature, including parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric models as well as the application of standard schedules. Models are tested in both proportional-odds and proportional-hazards frameworks....I fit [the] models to current status data on breast-feeding from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in six countries: two African (Mali and Ondo State, Nigeria), two Asian (Indonesia and Sri Lanka), and two Latin American (Colombia and Peru)."
Correspondence: L. M. Grummer-Strawn, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Reproductive Health, Atlanta, GA 30341. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

59:30688 Keilman, Nico. Translation formulas for non-repeatable events. Working Papers from Department for Statistics on Individuals and Households: Population and Living Conditions, Vol. 4, 1992. 109-40 pp. Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Eng.
"Existing translation formulas, originally derived by Ryder, express the relation between changes in cohort quantum and tempo, and changes in period quantum and tempo. These formulas have been developed for repeatable events, such as age-specific births irrespective of parity....This paper derives translation formulas for non-repeatable events. Expressions are investigated for the cohort quantum indicator as a function of period quantum and period tempo, and changes therein....One of the results of this paper is that cohort quantum is a constant function of time when period quantum is constant, and period tempo, as measured by the age pattern of the occurrence-exposure rates, changes linearly with time....Furthermore it was found that when tempo is constant, and period quantum falls with time according to a straight line, period tempo underestimates cohort quantum for high period quantum levels, and overestimates it for low period quantum levels." Some data for Norway are used as illustrations.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30689 Mahadevan, Kuttan; Krishnan, Parameswara. Methodology for population studies and development. ISBN 0-8039-9431-1. LC 92-15028. 1993. 469 pp. Sage Publications: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
This is a selection of 20 papers by various authors on aspects of research methodology used in the study of population and development. The papers are divided into five sections covering general theory and research design, interdisciplinary methods, models for data analysis and development, projections and estimations, and action research. Most of the papers included in the volume were presented at a seminar held in honor of N. Krishnan Namboodiri at Sri Venkateswara University in Tirupati, India.
Correspondence: Sage Publications India Pvt, M-32 Greater Kailash Market 1, New Delhi 110 048, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30690 Miljanic, Maja. Introduction to life event history analysis. [Uvod u analizu istorija dogadaja.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 24, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1991. 71-87 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
"The paper presents basic features of...life event history analysis....Discrete time method, continuous time data methods and the proportional risk models are presented. An attempt is made at distinguishing the censoring-related problems from those of the time-varying explanatory variables. The method proposed is that of...maximum likelihood. The final chapter deals with the PC software applicable for such analysis...."
Correspondence: M. Miljanic, Univerziteta u Beogradu, Instituta Drustvenih Nauka, Centar za Demografska Istrazivanja, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30691 Pinheiro, Jose C. da R. C.; de Lima, Jose M. A measure to evaluate estimates from the population census. [Avaliacao dos efeitos de reducao da fracao de amostragem no censo demografico.] Revista Brasileira de Estatistica, Vol. 51, No. 195, Jan-Jun 1990. 53-84 pp. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In Por. with sum. in Eng.
"A measure of efficiency loss for the precision of estimates implied by sampling fractions reduction is described here....A study of the sampling fractions needed to guarantee a given precision level to estimate characteristics...is also performed. An application of the methodology suggested is included. The example is based on household characteristics investigated in [Brazil's]...Census of 1980, with estimates published at a county level and for the set of alternative sampling fractions for the 1990...Census."
Correspondence: J. C. da R. C. Pinheiro, Fundacao Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia y Estatistica, Avenida Franklin Roosevelt 166, 20021 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30692 Sanderson, Warren C. Simulation models of economic, demographic, and environmental interactions: are they on a sustainable development path? IIASA Working Paper, No. WP-92-87, Dec 1992. x, 44 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"The main purpose of this paper is to put the IIASA Mauritius model into perspective by (1) comparing it with other simulation models that include environmental considerations, and (2) showing how these models contribute to the debate about economic, environmental, and demographic interactions." The model is a simulation of the relationships among development, population, and environment in Mauritius.
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30693 Shi, Xilai; Geng, Zhi; Hu, Dekun. Statistical analysis of in-depth fertility surveys by collapsing contingency tables. In: Fertility in China. Proceedings of the International Seminar on China's In-Depth Fertility Survey, Beijing, February 13-17, 1990. 1991. 73-101 pp. International Statistical Institute [ISI]: Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
The authors examine theoretical and practical aspects of analyzing qualitative variables using data from China's In-Depth Fertility Survey of 1985 and 1987. "The statistical analysis methods in this paper are as follows: (1) to sift explanatory variables using AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion) principle. (2) to analyze contingency tables with a response variable of interest and sifted explanatory variables. (3) to select models and to analyze relational structure using log-linear models."
Correspondence: X. Shi, People's University of China, Department of Sociology, 39 Haidian Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30694 Valkovics, Emil. Different possibilities for using an indirect procedure of demographic modeling. [Nehany gondolat egy indirekt modellezesi eljaras alkalmazasi lehetosegeirol a demografiaban.] Demografia, Vol. 36, No. 1, 1993. 69-98 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng.
"The paper presents a new procedure of indirect modelling for the representation of increasing or decreasing values of certain demographic variables....We report in detail on a modelling of the survivorship function in the life table; the cumulated values of general age-specific fertility rates; the age-specific rates of marital fertility; [and] the distribution of women in a marriage cohort by the number of children they have borne, and the consequent estimation of parity progression ratios, and the distribution of their progeny by birth order. The method is not universally applicable....However, the accuracy of the results yielded by the model suggests its value for forecasting." Data from Hungary, Norway, and France are used to illustrate the procedure.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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