Volume 59 - Number 2 - Summer 1993

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

59:20049 Grajales Porras, Agustin; Aranda Romero, Jose L. Sociodemographic profile of Tehuacan during the viceroyalty. [Perfil sociodemografico de Tehuacan durante el virreinato.] Estudios Demograficos y Urbanos, Vol. 7, No. 1, Jan-Apr 1992. 53-76 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
The authors outline the development and characteristics of the population of Tehuacan, Mexico, with a focus on the sixteenth to the eighteenth century. Data are mainly from records kept by the colonial military, supplemented by papers left by families then resident in the city.
Correspondence: A. Grajales Porras, Universidad Autonoma de Puebla, Instituto de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades, 4 Sur No. 104, 7200 Puebla, Puebla, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20050 Houston, R. A. The population history of Britain and Ireland 1500-1750. Studies in Economic and Social History, ISBN 0-333-56564-9. 1992. 100 pp. Macmillan Education: Basingstoke, England; Economic History Society: London, England. In Eng.
This is a general introduction to the history of population developments in Britain and Ireland from the sixteenth to the eighteenth century. "The aim of the [first] section...is to discuss sources for early modern demographic history and the ways of exploiting them. Population structures and trends are then outlined before the dynamic components of fertility, nuptiality, mortality and migration are discussed. A substantial chapter on the relationship between demographic behaviour and its economic and social context concludes the [study]."
Correspondence: Macmillan Education, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20051 Laux, Hans-Dieter; Busch, Ursula. Development and structure of the population, 1815 to 1980. [Entwicklung und Struktur der Bevolkerung 1815 bis 1980.] Publikationen der Gesellschaft fur Rheinische Geschichtskunde, XII. Abteilung 1b Neue Folge: Geschichtlicher Atlas der Rheinlande, Beiheft, No. 8/2-8/4, ISBN 3-7927-1127-3. LC 90-189405. 1989. 67 pp. Rheinland-Verlag: Cologne, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
A series of maps depicting population trends in Germany between 1815 and 1980 is presented. They focus on regional population distribution, 1815-1980; regional differences in population structure by age, sex, and marital status, 1871-1970; and differences in employment structure by region, 1882-1970. Some analysis is also included.
Correspondence: Rheinland-Verlag, Abtei Brauweiler, Postfach 2140, W-5024 Pulheim 2, Germany. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

59:20052 Schellekens, Jona. The role of marital fertility in Irish population history, 1750-1840. Economic History Review, Vol. 46, No. 2, May 1993. 369-78 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
This note concerns efforts to identify causes of the rapid population growth that occurred in Ireland during the second half of the eighteenth century and the early nineteenth century. It "aims to show that the employment of a logical framework imposed by demographic constraints may limit the number of possible solutions to questions about the causes of Irish population growth and relatively high marital fertility. For instance, using stable population theory and a fertility model, it can be shown that a rise in marital fertility is unlikely to explain the whole increase in the growth rate in Ireland....I shall suggest that the duration of the post-partum non-susceptible period, which is strongly influenced by breastfeeding patterns, was the more likely cause of a rise in marital fertility. I shall also speculate on the cause of change in breastfeeding patterns in Ireland during the eighteenth century."
Correspondence: J. Schellekens, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus, Jerusalem, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

59:20053 Bracken, Ian. A surface model approach to small area population estimation. Town Planning Review, Vol. 62, No. 2, Apr 1991. 225-37 pp. Liverpool, England. In Eng.
The author applies a surface model approach to the estimation of small-area population and household characteristics. "The representation of population-related information by means of surface concepts offers a way to overcome many of the limitations of traditional, 'fixed' zone-based methods. The approach has the potential to give planners and policy-makers greatly improved flexibility in handling and interpreting spatially referenced data. One practical area of application is the estimation of population at local levels for which the underlying concepts and methods are discussed in this article."
Correspondence: I. Bracken, University of Wales, College of Cardiff, Department of City and Regional Planning, POB 68, Cardiff CF1 3XA, Wales. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

59:20054 Doran, Howard E. Using the Kalman filter to estimate sub-populations. Working Papers in Econometrics and Applied Statistics, No. 44, ISBN 0-85834-873-X. Mar 1990. 21, [10] pp. University of New England, Department of Econometrics: Armidale, Australia. In Eng.
The methodology is illustrated using census data for Australia.
Correspondence: University of New England, Department of Econometrics, Armidale, New South Wales 2351, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20055 El-Badry, M. A. World population change: a long-range perspective. Ambio, Vol. 21, No. 1, Feb 1992. 18-23 pp. Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"This paper presents trends of population, fertility, mortality and age-structure over a range starting in the middle of the 20th century and extending through the 21st century. The paper gives due emphasis to the demographic situation in the currently developing countries. The data are derived from the estimates and projections prepared by the United Nations Population Division....The projections constitute a basic outline of the demographic perspective and, even more important, provide material that is essential for studying the interactions between population, resources and environment."
Correspondence: M. A. El-Badry, United Nations, Population Division, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20056 Guatemala. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica [INE] (Guatemala City, Guatemala). Guatemala: urban and rural population estimates by department and municipality, 1990-1995. [Guatemala: poblacion urbana y rural estimada por departamento y municipio 1990-95.] LC 91-213911. Feb 1991. 73 pp. Guatemala City, Guatemala. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Guatemala for the period 1990-1995 for the rural and urban population. The results are based on data from censuses for several periods, including the 1981 census.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Edificio America, 8a Calle 9-55, Zona 1, Guatemala City CA, Guatemala. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

59:20057 Japan. Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Population estimates by prefecture as of October 1, 1986-1989: intercensal adjustment. Population Estimates Series, No. 64, [1992]. 86 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Revised population estimates are presented for Japan for the years 1986 through 1989, taking into account results from the 1990 census. The estimates are presented separately by sex and prefecture.
Correspondence: Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20058 United States. Kansas. Secretary of State (Topeka, Kansas). Adjustment to the 1990 U.S. decennial census. LC 91-623083. [1991]. 46, [21] pp. Topeka, Kansas. In Eng.
This report presents data from the 1990 U.S. census, which has been adjusted for each census block in Kansas to facilitate the 1992 legislative redistricting required by the Kansas Constitution. Information is included on the adjustment procedures used.
Correspondence: State of Kansas, Secretary of State, 2nd Floor, State Capitol, Topeka, KS 66612-1594. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

59:20059 Ahlburg, Dennis A.; Land, Kenneth C. Population forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 8, No. 3, Nov 1992. 289-542 pp. Elsevier Science Publishers: Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
This is a collection of papers by various authors on topics in population forecasting. Subjects covered include forecasting theory, methods, and accuracy, with a focus on new approaches and alternative methodologies. Several papers consider the forecasting of the spread of AIDS and of cause-specific mortality.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Elsevier Science Publishers, P.O. Box 1991, 1000 BZ Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20060 Alho, Juha M. The magnitude of error due to different vital processes in population forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 8, No. 3, Nov 1992. 301-14 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The propagation of error in stochastic cohort-component forecasts of population is discussed....Empirically based (ex post) estimates of each source are presented and propagated first through a simplified analytical model of population growth....Then, we consider numerical estimates based on the (ex ante) errors of an actual vector ARIMA forecast of the vital rates and propagate them through a forecast of the U.S. female population....The uncertainty in the forecasts of fertility is shown to be so much higher than that in the other sources that the latter can be ignored in the propagation of error calculations for those cohorts that are born after the jump-off year of the forecast....However, both the uncertainty of the jump-off population, migration, and mortality needs to be considered in the propagation of error for those alive at the jump-off time of the forecast."
Correspondence: J. M. Alho, University of Joensuu, Department of Statistics, P.O. Box 111, 80101 Joensuu, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20061 Ananta, Aris; Arifin, Evi N. Demographic transition in Indonesia: a projection into the year 2020. Population Projection Series, No. 1, Nov 1990. iii, 30 pp. University of Indonesia, Faculty of Economics, Demographic Institute: Jakarta, Indonesia. In Eng.
The authors project changes in the demographic characteristics of the population of Indonesia to the year 2020. Topics examined include population size, demographic aging, urbanization, educational status, morbidity, and the sex ratio. The introductory text is accompanied by extensive statistical data in tables and charts.
Correspondence: University of Indonesia, Faculty of Economics, Demographic Institute, Jalan Salemba Raya 4, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20062 Bloom, David E.; Glied, Sherry. Projecting the number of new AIDS cases in the United States. International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 8, No. 3, Nov 1992. 339-65 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper reviews the two leading methods used to project the number of AIDS cases: back calculation and extrapolation. These methods are assessed in light of key features of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and of data on the epidemic; they are also assessed in terms of the quality of the projections they yield. Our analysis shows that both methods have tended to overproject, often by sizable amounts, the number of AIDS cases in the United States....A new method for projecting AIDS cases is proposed that exploits knowledge about the process generating AIDS cases and that incorporates readily available information about rates of new HIV infection....Relative to the method of extrapolation, this method projects 22,000 fewer new AIDS cases for 1995 (a 36% difference). This method also projects that intravenous drug users will replace homosexual/bisexual men as the dominant transmission category for AIDS."
Correspondence: S. Glied, Columbia University, Department of Economics, New York, NY 10027. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20063 Bos, Eduard; Vu, My T.; Levin, Ann. East Asia and Pacific region, South Asia region: population projections, 1992-93 edition. Policy Research Working Paper: Population, Health, and Nutrition, No. WPS 1032, Nov 1992. xcv, 151 pp. World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is one in a series of six World Bank papers that present annual regional population projections.
Correspondence: World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

59:20064 Bos, Eduard; Bulatao, Rodolfo A. The demographic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa: short- and long-term projections. International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 8, No. 3, Nov 1992. 367-84 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper describes the methodology used to incorporate AIDS mortality in recently revised World Bank population projections....The paper first reviews different approaches for projecting AIDS and its demographic consequences. This is followed by a summary of an epidemiological model that simulates the spread of HIV used in this analysis, and a demographic model that translates mortality from AIDS into population outcomes. These models are then used in a set of simulations, from which the effect of current HIV prevalence on projected future mortality is extracted. Finally, the extracted equations linking current HIV prevalence with future mortality indicators are applied to sub-Saharan countries with a measurable level of current HIV prevalence."
Correspondence: E. Bos, World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20065 Bos, Eduard; Vu, My T.; Levin, Ann; Bulatao, Rodolfo A. World population projections, 1992-93 edition: estimates and projections with related demographic statistics. ISBN 0-8018-4644-7. 1992. vii, 515 pp. World Bank: Washington, D.C.; Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"This volume contains demographic estimates and projections for the world and its subdivisions--countries, regions, and income groups. This introduction section summarizes, explains, and interprets the detailed tables that comprise the main section of the book. It also discusses the projection methodology, and lists the sources of current population estimates and vital rates." This year's edition contains two major changes from earlier editions. "First, projected mortality from AIDS has been incorporated in the tables for Sub-Saharan African countries. Second, demographic estimates and projections are provided separately for each of the fifteen countries that constituted the Soviet Union."
For a previous projection in this series, published in 1990, see 56:40089.
Correspondence: World Bank, Publications Sales Unit, Department F, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20066 Cole, Rodney V. Pacific 2010: challenging the future. Pacific Policy Paper, No. 9, ISBN 0-7315-1671-0. 1993. xvii, 134 pp. Australian National University, National Centre for Development Studies: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
This volume contains a collection of studies on the consequences for Pacific Island nations of a continuation of current rates of population growth. Three general chapters provide information on the negative consequences of such growth, the relationship between population and development, and population projections up to the year 2010. Additional chapters focus on specific countries, including Fiji, Kiribati, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu, and Western Samoa.
Correspondence: Australian National University, National Centre for Development Studies, GPO Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20067 Edmonston, Barry; Passel, Jeffrey S. Immigration and immigrant generations in population projections. International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 8, No. 3, Nov 1992. 459-76 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper proposes a new model for population projections. This model projects an initial population under conditions of fertility, mortality, and international migration (like standard cohort-component models), but considers the population arrayed by generation....Consideration of the model also makes apparent that assignment of births to generations may not follow a simple form; the paper presents a method for including the empirical description of intergenerational births within the generational framework. As an example, we examine the next century of population growth for the Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White non-Hispanic populations in the United States, comparing their growth rates and their composition within the total U.S. population."
Correspondence: J. S. Passel, Urban Institute, Program for Research on Immigration Policy, 2100 M Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20068 Hodgkinson, Harold L. A demographic look at tomorrow. ISBN 0-937846-57-0. Jun 1992. 18 pp. Institute for Educational Leadership, Center for Demographic Policy: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author analyzes demographic trends in the United States since 1980, then makes projections to the year 2010. The focus is on minorities, spatial distribution, fertility, and social class; and the implications for education, the labor force, and policy.
Correspondence: Institute for Educational Leadership, Center for Demographic Policy, 1001 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 310, Washington, D.C. 20036. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20069 Israel. Central Bureau of Statistics (Jerusalem, Israel). Projections of the population in Israel up to 2005. Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, Vol. 42, No. 10, Suppl., Oct 1991. 19-44 pp. Jerusalem, Israel. In Eng; Heb.
"The Central Bureau of Statistics presents herewith new projections of the development of the population in Israel up to 2005. The projections are for the years 1995, 2000 and 2005. At the base of these projections is the estimated population at the end of 1990, by sex, age and population group...."
Correspondence: Central Bureau of Statistics, Prime Minister's Office, P.O.B. 13015, Jerusalem 91130, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

59:20070 Isserman, Andrew M. The right people, the right rates: making population estimates and forecasts with an interregional cohort-component model. Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1, Winter 1993. 45-64 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
"Innocent looking technical choices can cause large differences in population projections. This article offers suggestions for making those choices and creating a more thoughtful population forecasting process. Emphasis is on an interregional cohort-component approach made possible by newly available inmigration and outmigration data for all [U.S.] counties. The interregional approach avoids conceptual problems and biases of conventional net migration approaches and can be used to make county population estimates, projections, and forecasts. Sample spreadsheets with formulas demonstrate the procedures for calculating rates and making projections. Population projections for fifty-five counties illustrate the effects of several methodological choices."
Correspondence: A. M. Isserman, West Virginia University, Regional Research Institute, Morgantown, WV 26506. Location: Princeton University Library (SF).

59:20071 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). Population projections by prefectures, 1990-2010. Institute of Population Problems Research Series, No. 275, ISBN 4-87511-067-7. Oct 30, 1992. 187 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population projections are presented for Japan up to the year 2010 by prefecture and sex.
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20072 Lee, Ronald D. Stochastic demographic forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 8, No. 3, Nov 1992. 315-27 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper describes a particular approach to stochastic population forecasting, which is implemented for the U.S.A. through 2065. Statistical time series methods are combined with demographic models to produce plausible long run forecasts of vital rates, with probability distributions. The resulting mortality forecasts imply gains in future life expectancy that are roughly twice as large as those forecast by the Office of the Social Security Actuary....Resulting stochastic forecasts of the elderly population, elderly dependency ratios, and payroll tax rates for health, education and pensions are presented."
Correspondence: R. D. Lee, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20073 Manton, Kenneth G.; Stallard, Eric; Singer, Burton. Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population. International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 8, No. 3, Nov 1992. 433-58 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented. The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and their interaction. Health changes are simulated by altering parameters controlling the age trajectory and diffusion of risk factor means, variances, and covariances....By increasing the information used in projections it may be possible to better (a) anticipate the state of health at extreme ages, (b) forecast changes in health at specific ages over time, (c) stimulate the effects of specific interventions, and (d) determine the sensitivity of outcomes to a range of interventions."
Correspondence: K. G. Manton, Duke University, Center for Demographic Studies, 2117 Campus Drive, Durham, NC 27706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20074 Mason, Andrew; Racelis, Rachel. A comparison of four methods for projecting households. International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 8, No. 3, Nov 1992. 509-27 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to extend the headship rate method for projecting households to encompass both sexes. Four models are considered that explicitly incorporate the impact of changes in the number of men and women on the number and joint age distribution of husband-wife households. The models are applied to the Philippines using data from the 1988 National Demographic Survey to project households to 2010. The models are also evaluated by 'backcasting' and comparing the results with special tabulations from the 1970 and 1980 censuses and the 1975 National Demographic Survey."
Correspondence: A. Mason, East-West Center, Program on Population, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20075 McMurray, Christine. Population projections for Nauru, 1983-2013. Economics Division Working Paper: South Pacific, No. 92/1, ISBN 0-7315-0980-3. 1992. iii, 19 pp. Australian National University, Research School of Pacific Studies, Economics Division: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
Four alternative projections are presented for the population of Nauru up to the year 2013.
Correspondence: FreePost 440, Bibliotech, ANUTech Pty Ltd., Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20076 Neupert, Ricardo F. Population projections for Mongolia: 1989-2019. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, Vol. 7, No. 4, Dec 1992. 61-80 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
"This note provides updates of the population projections prepared by the State Statistical Office of Mongolia in 1989....A standard cohort component method was used in preparing these projections....This method yields the projected population by sex and five-year age groups for the end of each quinquennium of the projection period, in this case, for each quinquennium between 1989 and 2019....The computer program DEMPROJ was utilized to perform the projections....[The conclusion is that] the population profile of the Mongolian population in future decades will not be much different from that exhibited by most of the countries that have recently experienced fertility reductions."
Correspondence: R. F. Neupert, State Statistical Office, Ulan Bator, Mongolia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20077 Olthof, W. Population projections on the PC: an appraisal of four software programmes. Review of Rural and Urban Planning in Southern and Eastern Africa, No. 1, 1991. 101-18 pp. Harare, Zimbabwe. In Eng.
"In this article the use of PCs for projection purposes will be discussed and a comparison made of four software programmes....Four cohort-survival programmes are compared and appraised: Demproj, Ottensmann's model, PEOPLE, and TM1. These four programmes were selected for the mere fact that they can be run on any (IBM compatible) PC, with or without a hard disk."
Location: Cornell University Library, Ithaca, NY.

59:20078 Pant, Prakash D. New population projection for Nepal (1986-2016). Economic Journal of Nepal, Vol. 14, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1991. 38-52 pp. Katmandu, Nepal. In Eng.
Population projections for Nepal are presented for the period 1981-2016.
Correspondence: P. D. Pant, Tribhuvan University, Centre for Economic Development and Administration, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

59:20079 Pflaumer, Peter. Forecasting U.S. population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach. International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 8, No. 3, Nov 1992. 329-38 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The use of the Box-Jenkins approach for forecasting the population of the United States up to the year 2080 is discussed. It is shown that the Box-Jenkins approach is equivalent to a simple trend model when making long-range predictions for the United States. An investigation of forecasting accuracy indicates that the Box-Jenkins method produces population forecasts that are at least as reliable as those done with more traditional demographic methods."
Correspondence: P. Pflaumer, Universitat Konstanz, SFB 178, D-7750 Konstanz, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20080 Sircelj, Milivoja; Ilic, Milena; Kuhar, Avgustina; Zupancic, Marta. Population projections for the Federal Republic of Slovenia, 1986-2006. [Projekcije prebivalstva SR Slovenije 1986-2006.] ISBN 86-81141-30-9. LC 91-183876. 1990. 79 pp. Zavod SR Slovenije za Statistiko: Ljubljana, Yugoslavia. In Slv.
Population projections are presented for Slovenia for the period 1986-2006, based on the application of sophisticated analytical techniques to data from official Yugoslav sources.
Correspondence: Zavod SR Slovenije za Statistiko, Vozarski pot 12, 61000 Ljubljana, Slovenia. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

59:20081 Smith, Stanley K.; Sincich, Terry. Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states. International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 8, No. 3, Nov 1992. 495-508 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"A common perception among producers (and users) of population projections is that complex and/or sophisticated techniques produce more accurate forecasts than simple and/or naive techniques. In this paper we test the validity of that perception by evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of eight commonly used projection techniques drawn from...four categories [trend extrapolation, ratio extrapolation, cohort-component, and structural]. Using data for [U.S.] state population projections from a number of different time periods, we find no evidence that complex and/or sophisticated techniques produce more accurate or less biased forecasts than simple, naive techniques."
Correspondence: S. K. Smith, University of Florida, Department of Economics, Gainesville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20082 Spicer, Keith; Diamond, Ian; Ni Bhrolchain, Maire. Into the twenty-first century with British households. International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 8, No. 3, Nov 1992. 529-39 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper takes [U.K.] General Household Survey (GHS) data at the micro level and ages these households by simulation to the year 2001. Differing scenarios are considered in order to accommodate high and low variants of each household type in the British household distribution."
Correspondence: K. Spicer, University of Southampton, Department of Social Statistics, Southampton SO9 5NH, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20083 Tuljapurkar, Shripad. Stochastic population forecasts and their uses. International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 8, No. 3, Nov 1992. 385-91 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The properties and uses of stochastic forecasts are discussed here. For linear stochastic projections, we show how the computation of forecast moments and the statistical distribution of forecasts depend on the multiplicative and autoregressive structure of the dynamics. Both scalar and vector projection methods are discussed, and their similarities are explored. Next we discuss the uses of stochastic forecasts, arguing that it is important to relate forecasts to the specific decision-making criteria of particular forecast users. The example of [the U.S. system of] Social Security is used to show how a dynamic programming approach may be used to explore alternative decisions in a probabilistic context."
Correspondence: S. Tuljapurkar, Stanford University, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford, CA 94305. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20084 United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Development (New York, New York). Projection methods for integrating population variables into development planning. Volume 1: methods for comprehensive planning. Module Three: techniques for preparing projections of household and other incomes, household consumption and savings and government consumption and investment. No. ST/ESA/SER.R/90/Add2, 1993. xxxii, 446 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This is the third and final module of the first volume of the manual on projection methods for integrating population concerns into development planning [developed by the United Nations]....This module describes techniques for preparing projections of household and other incomes, household consumption and savings and government consumption and investment. These techniques can be used to make a series of interrelated projections of demographic and socio-economic variables for comprehensive planning that take into account key linkages between population and socio-economic change."
For Module 2, published in 1990, see 56:20102.
Correspondence: U.N. Department of Economic and Social Development, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20085 Vu, My T.; Bos, Eduard; Levin, Ann. Europe and Central Asia region, Middle East and North Africa region: population projections, 1992-93 edition. Policy Research Working Paper: Population, Health, and Nutrition, No. WPS 1016, Nov 1992. xcv, 203 pp. World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is one in a series of six World Bank papers that present annual regional population projections.
Correspondence: World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

59:20086 Vu, My T.; Bos, Eduard; Levin, Ann. Latin America and the Caribbean region (and Northern America): population projections, 1992-93 edition. Policy Research Working Paper: Population, Health, and Nutrition, No. WPS 1033, Nov 1992. xcv, 145 pp. World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is one in a series of six World Bank papers that present annual regional population projections.
Correspondence: World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

59:20087 Woods and Poole Economics (Washington, D.C.). CEDDS 1992: the complete economic and demographic data source. 1992. 3,617 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This three-volume work presents data from a regional forecasting model of the United States for the period 1990-2015. Volume 1 begins with an overview chapter summarizing the results of the 1992 forecasts. Chapter 2 is a technical description of the database, and Chapter 3 defines the geographical areas used. The volume also includes tables ranking states and counties in terms of population, employment, and income growth, as well as statistical tables for the United States, regions, states, CMSAs, and MSA/PMSAs. The remainder of the volume, as well as Volumes 2 and 3, consists of county-level data concerning total population, Hispanic population, population over age 65, income, employment, number of households, and retail sales by category.
Correspondence: Woods and Poole Economics, 1794 Columbia Road NW, Suite 4, Washington, D.C. 20009. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

59:20088 Badari, V. S. Population growth rate in India: some hopeful signs. Demography India, Vol. 20, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1991. 209-14 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
This study "provides convincing evidence in favour of the hypothesis that the population growth rate of India is on a declining trend. The confusion and debate concerning the trend in India's population growth rate are mainly due to the fact that the major States of India are in different stages of demographic transition (with some States experiencing increasing and others declining growth rates), resulting in a near stationary growth rate at the all-India level." Data concern the period 1971-1991.
Correspondence: V. S. Badari, Population Centre, 2nd Cross, Malleswaram, Bangalore 560 003, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20089 Bartlett, Albert A. The arithmetic of growth: methods of calculation. Population and Environment, Vol. 14, No. 4, Mar 1993. 359-87 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This is a tutorial on the relations between population data and the rates of growth that are calculated from the data. For the calculation of rates of growth, discrete and continuous compounding will be compared so that the reader can see the reasons for using the mathematics of continuous compounding, which is the mathematics of exponential growth. Some properties of exponential growth are developed. Semi-logarithmic graphs will be discussed as a device for representing the size of growing populations and for analyzing the nature of the growth. Illustrative examples will be worked out in order to emphasize applications and utility." Data for the United States are used to illustrate.
Correspondence: A. A. Bartlett, University of Colorado, Department of Physics, Boulder, CO 80309-0390. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20090 Das, N. P.; Bhavsar, Saroj. Population growth rate in India: emerging trend in the light of 1991 census results. Demography India, Vol. 20, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1991. 227-41 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"An attempt has been made here to examine the available state level data [for India] from the census and other sources to examine whether acceleration in the pace of population growth at the national level has reversed during the last decade as observed based on 1991 census results. Since India is a large country with its states at various stages of demographic evolution and [an] all India trend is likely to confound changes taking place in a few states which are leading in the transition process, the demographic trends in the major states are particularly examined to anticipate the pattern at the national level."
Correspondence: N. P. Das, Population Research Centre, Faculty of Science, Baroda 390 002, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20091 Das, Nitai C. Vital rates of India for intercensal period with declining fertility and declining mortality. Genus, Vol. 48, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1992. 199-215 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
Census data for 1971 and 1981 for India are used to estimate vital rates for the country, its provinces, and regions during the intercensal period. The estimation techniques are described.
Correspondence: N. C. Das, Ministry of Planning, Department of Statistics, Survey Design and Research Division, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20092 Gulati, S. C. Population growth and development: a district level analysis. Demography India, Vol. 20, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1991. 199-208 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This study attempts to highlight the relative significance of different demographic and development factors in influencing the district level patterns of population growth in India during 1981-91....This study first elicits indices depicting sectoral aspects of economic development...[and then develops] an index depicting natural growth potential based on some basic demographic parameters like fertility, mortality, contraception and marital pattern at the district level....The study [also] highlights the linkages between population growth and the components of development."
Correspondence: S. C. Gulati, University Enclave, Institute of Economic Growth, Population Research Centre, Delhi 110 007, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20093 Hill, Kenneth. Fertility and mortality trends in the developing world. Ambio, Vol. 21, No. 1, Feb 1992. 79-83 pp. Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"The focus of this paper will...be on the components of natural increase, that is, fertility and mortality, in the developing world in general. The time frame taken will be the last 30 years....[The author concludes that] the net effect of declining fertility and declining mortality has been to leave the population growth rate of the developing world more or less where it was 30 years ago." The impact of AIDS is also assessed.
Correspondence: K. Hill, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20094 Schnell, George A. Population change and its components in Pennsylvania, 1980-1990. Journal of the Pennsylvania Academy of Science, Vol. 66, No. 2, 1992. 83-9 pp. Easton, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
The author analyzes patterns of population growth in Pennsylvania by county. "Although Pennsylvania's population increased only slightly from 1980-1990, the pattern of change portrays noteworthy growth in many counties in the eastern half of the Commonwealth and decline throughout much of the west....Analysis of the components of change--fertility, mortality, and net-migration--reveals significant differences in the role played by reproductive change in the demographic equation among counties which grew in population and, to a lesser extent, among those which declined. Changes in numbers of inhabitants and their components are related to location and selected demographic, social, and economic characteristics of the county populations."
Correspondence: G. A. Schnell, State University of New York, College at New Paltz, Department of Geography, New Paltz, NY 12561-2499. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20095 Srivastava, M. L. Growth of Malawi's population by sex, 1901-87. Malawian Geographer, No. 28, 1989. 45-61 pp. Zomba, Malawi. In Eng.
Trends in population growth in Malawi are reviewed over the period 1901-1987. Data are from official sources, including the 1987 census. Estimates are given for the population by sex for selected years. Some information is provided on population at the regional and district levels.
Location: Yale University, Sterling Library, New Haven, CT.

59:20096 Tsubouchi, Yoshihiro. Changes in population and households in a Malay village, 1971-1991. Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 30, No. 2, Sep 1992. 192-212 pp. Kyoto, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
"The Malay village of Galok in Kelantan was revisited [in]...1991 to investigate the changes in the population and households in the 20 years since the first intensive community study was conducted there in 1970/71. Major economic activities in 1970/71 were paddy cultivation in rain-fed fields, small scale rubber tapping, and newly introduced tobacco cultivation. The village's population increased from 690 in 1971 to 1,100 in 1991, and the number of households from 145 to 211. Despite the increase in population and households, the households cultivating paddy decreased from 71 to 36, those tapping rubber from 94 to 53, and those growing tobacco from 124 to 40, while regular employment, irregular wage labor in the surrounding areas, and temporary migratory work in Singapore increased remarkably. Many people moved out of the village and many others moved in. Though the former exceed the latter in number, the village population is still increasing owing to the high fertility...."
Correspondence: Y. Tsubouchi, Kyoto University, Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Shimoadachicho 46, Yoshida, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20097 Wertheimer-Baletic, Alicia; Gelo, Jakov. Total and natural population increase in Croatia. [Ukupno i prirodno kretanje stanovnistva Hrvatske.] Sociologija Sela, Vol. 28, No. 107-108, Jan-Jun 1990. 1-18 pp. Zagreb, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Population developments in Croatia are examined over the period 1857-1981. The main focus is on trends since World War II. The authors note that from 1948 to 1981 "the population in Croatia grew more slowly than in other republics and provinces of Yugoslavia: it increased by 21.7% (in Yugoslavia by 41.6%) and the participation of Croatia's population in the total population of Yugoslavia decreased from 23.9% to 20.5%." Regional differences within Croatia are also analyzed.
Correspondence: A. Wertheimer-Baletic, Sveucilista u Zagrebu, Ekonomski Fakultet, Trg Marsala Tita 14, 41000 Zagreb, Croatia. Location: University of Michigan Library, Ann Arbor, MI.


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