59:10756 Anderson,
R. M.; May, R. M.; Ng, T. W.; Rowley, J. T. Age-dependent
choice of sexual partners and the transmission dynamics of HIV in
Sub-Saharan Africa. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
Society of London: B. Biological Sciences, Vol. 336, No. 1277, May 29,
1992. 135-55 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"A mathematical model of
the transmission of HIV-1 within heterosexual populations in
Sub-Saharan Africa is described and its properties analysed. The model
incorporates epidemiological and demographic processes and extends
previous work in this area via the inclusion of age and sex dependency
in rates of sexual partner change, and sexual partner choice dependent
on age. Parameter assignments are made on the basis of current data on
the transmission dynamics of HIV-1 and the demography of human
populations in Africa....The paper includes an assessment of the
influence of the timing of changes in sexual behaviour, or the
promotion of the use of condoms, on the predicted course of the
epidemic." The authors conclude that the spread of AIDS could reverse
population growth rates from positive to negative over the course of a
few decades.
Correspondence: R. M. Anderson, London
University, Imperial College, Parasite Epidemiology Research Group,
London SW7 2BB, England. Location: U.S. National Library of
Medicine, Bethesda, MD.
59:10757 Merkle,
Lucie; Zimmermann, Klaus F. The demographics of labour
turnover: a comparison of ordinal probit and censored count data
models. Recherches Economiques de Louvain, Vol. 58, No. 3-4, 1992.
283-306, 488 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
The
authors use date collected in 1977 on unemployed residents of West
Germany aged 15-54 years old to compare two statistical models used to
analyze labor market mobility. "Two classes of statistical models seem
appropriate for this type of analysis, the ordinal probit model
assuming a latent continuous variable behind the observables, and the
count data approach with prominent members as the Poisson and the
negative binomial model....The first point of interest is to explore
whether both approaches lead to similar findings....We outline some
approaches...that enable a...researcher to judge the quality of the
estimated model....[Then] we compare the performance of the ordinal
probit and count data models. Section 2 presents data and hypotheses.
Section 3 discusses the econometric methodology. Section 4 contains
the empirical results and the model
comparisons."
Correspondence: L. Merkle, Universitat
Munchen, Goethestrasse 31, 8000 Munich 2, Germany. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:10758 Morphet,
Clive. The interpretation of small area census data.
Area, Vol. 24, No. 1, Mar 1992. 63-72 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author suggests that the use of small-area statistics from the
1991 British census will require consideration of a number of simple
statistical issues. The issues identified are discussed and some
operational procedures for dealing with them are
proposed.
Correspondence: C. Morphet, Newcastle
Polytechnic, Ellison Place, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, England.
Location: New York Public Library, New York, NY.
59:10759 Rajulton,
Fernando. Life history analysis: guidelines for using the
program LIFEHIST (PC version). Population Studies Centre
Discussion Paper, No. 92-5, ISBN 0-7714-1397-1. Apr 1992. 27 pp.
University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London,
Canada. In Eng.
The author discusses life history data and its
analysis using Markov, semi-Markov, and non-Markov models. The models'
"basic concepts relevant to life history analysis are described...with
minimal mathematical discussions....Section 2 [then] provides the
necessary guidelines for application of these three schemes to any set
of life history data through the [PC software] program LIFEHIST. And
Section 3 presents illustrations on interpreting the results obtained."
Data used are from the 1984 Canadian Fertility
Survey.
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario,
Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:10760 Robinson,
J. Gregory; Das Gupta, Prithwis; Ahmed, Bashir. A case
study in the investigation of errors in estimates of coverage based on
demographic analysis: black adults aged 34 to 54 in 1980. In:
American Statistical Association, 1990 proceedings of the Social
Statistics Section. [1990]. 187-92 pp. American Statistical
Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This paper has
discussed the possibility of error in some specific components that are
used to develop the demographic estimates of population and coverage
for [U.S.] Blacks--namely, births, deaths, base populations
(Coale-Rives estimates). The effect of classification error has also
been considered. It has been shown that the net effect of these
various sources of error is to overstate the current estimates of
percent net undercount for Blacks." The focus is on the 1980
census.
For the estimates by Ansley J. Coale and Norfleet W. Rives,
published in 1973, see 39:2001.
Correspondence: J. G.
Robinson, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:10761 Treyz,
George I.; Rickman, Dan S.; Shao, Gang. The REMI
economic-demographic forecasting and simulation model.
International Regional Science Review, Vol. 14, No. 3, 1992. 221-53 pp.
Morgantown, West Virginia. In Eng.
"This article presents the
Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Economic-Demographic Forecasting
and Simulation (EDFS) model, which is used for regional forecasting and
policy simulation in both the private and public sectors in the United
States. The detailed structure of the model is presented. To
illustrate the dynamic simulation properties of the model, results of
two sample simulations for a REMI multi-area model of a region in
Southern California are presented. Post-sample historical forecasts
for all U.S. states are provided to evaluate the forecasting
capabilities of the model."
Correspondence: G. I. Treyz,
University of Massachusetts, Department of Economics, Amherst, MA
01003. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).
59:10762 Valkovics,
Emil. The estimation of the relationship between
population structure and dynamics for the analysis of Hungary's
population development. [A nepessegstruktura es a nepmozgalom
kapcsolatara vonatkozo uj becslesi rendszerek gyakorlati alkalmazasa
hazank nepessegfejlodesenek elemzesere.] Demografia, Vol. 35, No. 2,
1992. 229-66 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng.
The
author uses three different methods to estimate the relationship
between population structure and dynamics using data for the male
population of Hungary in 1990. The methods considered are those
developed by Preston and Coale, Arthur and Vaupel, and Preston, Himes,
and Eggers.
Correspondence: E. Valkovics, Kozponti
Statisztikai Hivatal, Keleti Karoly U.5-7, 1525 Budapest II, Hungary.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
59:10763
Vanderschrick, Christophe. The Lexis diagram
revisited. [Le diagramme de Lexis revisite.] Population, Vol. 47,
No. 5, Sep-Oct 1992. 1,241-62 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in
Eng; Spa.
The author analyzes the Lexis diagram, which was
formulated in the late nineteenth century, and evaluates similar
methods proposed during the period by Becker and Verweij. The question
of assigning credit for the methodology is
discussed.
Correspondence: C. Vanderschrick, Universite
Catholique de Louvain, CIDEP, Place de l'Universite 1, 1348
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
