F. Fertility

F.1. General Fertility

59:10198 Alam, Iqbal; Leete, Richard. Pauses in fertility trends in Sri Lanka and the Philippines? In: The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications, edited by Richard Leete and Iqbal Alam. 1993. 83-95 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
Fertility trends in Sri Lanka and the Philippines are analyzed and compared, with a focus on determinants of the slowing of the fertility decline in both countries. Consideration is given to marital fertility, age factors, contraceptive prevalence and methods chosen, and family planning programs. The influences of the Catholic church and political factors are also discussed.
Correspondence: I. Alam, U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, United Nations Building, Rajdamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10199 Alam, Iqbal; Leete, Richard. Variations in fertility in India and Indonesia. In: The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications, edited by Richard Leete and Iqbal Alam. 1993. 148-72 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
Trends in fertility in India and Indonesia are analyzed and compared, with a focus on the fertility decline in both countries. The authors note that the fertility transition has been more significant and more rapid in Indonesia, and conclude that a major reason for this is "Indonesia's more advanced stage of socio-economic development. However, perhaps of far more importance are the differences in the organization and implementation of their national family planning programmes."
Correspondence: I. Alam, U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, United Nations Building, Rajdamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10200 Ascoli, Luca. The graduation of fertility transitions: application to Italian data. Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione Working Paper, No. 08/90, Sep 1990. 63 pp. Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione [IRP]: Rome, Italy. In Eng.
"This paper deals...with the fitting of the Hadwiger function, the Gamma function, the Lognormal function, the Beta function, a particular third order Polinomial function, the Wald function and the Weibull function to...observed age-specific fertility rates through the method of moments." The study uses official Italian data for the period 1952-1979.
Correspondence: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione, Viale Beethoven 56, 00144 Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10201 Balepa, Martin; Fotso, Medard; Barrere, Bernard. Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey, 1991. [Enquete Demographique et de Sante Cameroun, 1991.] Dec 1992. xxiv, 285 pp. Direction Nationale du Deuxieme Recensement General de la Population et de l'Habitat: Yaounde, Cameroon; Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Fre.
This is the first report from the Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey of 1991. The survey included 3,538 households, 3,871 women aged 15-49, and 814 husbands. Topics covered include survey methodology and respondent characteristics, fertility, family planning, nuptiality and exposure to risk of pregnancy, fertility preferences, maternal and child health, infant nutrition and breast-feeding, mortality among children under five, causes of child mortality, the husband's survey, and the availability of community services.
Correspondence: Direction Nationale du Deuxieme Recensement General de la Population et de l'Habitat, B.P. 7 094 Yaounde, Cameroon. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10202 Balk, Deborah L. Parity and imparity: individual and community aspects of fertility and women's status in rural Bangladesh. Pub. Order No. DA9228564. 1991. 259 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This study was undertaken as a doctoral dissertation at the University of California at Berkeley.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 53(5).

59:10203 Bongaarts, John; Lightbourne, Robert. Fertility preferences in Latin America: trends and differentials in seven countries. [Fecundidad deseada en America Latina: tendencias y diferenciales en siete paises.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 20, No. 55, Jun 1992. 79-102 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
The authors use Bongaarts's fertility preference measurement methodology to examine and compare changes in fertility preferences in Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Jamaica, Peru, and Trinidad and Tobago over the period 1975-1989. "The trends of observed and desired fertility are examined at the national level and by level of education and rural-urban place of residence. The data used comes from fertility surveys....such as the World Fertility Survey (WFS) and the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). The analysis suggests that the changes in fertility between the dates of the two surveys...are not due to changes in desired fertility, but mainly to differences in the degree to which fertility is controlled to coincide with desired levels....Both the WFS and the DHS show that unwanted fertility was significant in all countries, specially in the lower socioeconomic strata."
For the Bongaarts methodology, published in 1990, see 57:10361.
Correspondence: J. Bongaarts, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10204 Bongaarts, John. The supply-demand framework for the determinants of fertility: an alternative implementation. Population Council Research Division Working Paper, No. 44, 1992. 41 pp. Population Council, Research Division: New York, New York. In Eng.
"Easterlin's supply-demand framework for the determinants of fertility is widely accepted because it has brought conceptual clarity to the study of factors underlying the family building process. This model has, however, not succeeded in quantifying the fertility determinants in a convenient and generally accepted manner. The variant of Easterlin's model presented in this paper aims to remove obstacles to empirical implementation. In addition to quantifying the supply and demand factors, a new variable, the degree of preference implementation, is introduced to measure the role of costs and benefits of fertility regulation. Applications of this alternative methodology to data from surveys in 18 developing countries indicate that recent declines in fertility are largely due to reductions in the demand for births and to increases in preference implementation. Changes in the supply of births appear to have played only a minor role."
Correspondence: Population Council, Research Division, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10205 Bos, Eduard; Bulatao, Rodolfo A. Projecting fertility for all countries. Policy, Research, and External Affairs Working Paper: Population, Health, and Nutrition, No. 500, Sep 1990. 29 pp. World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper describes new procedures used to project fertility in World Bank population projections....This comprehensive revision is based on a new review of data and provides a clear rationale for future trends....Focusing on the transition stage, trends are analyzed for countries or economies that experienced at least part of the fertility transition after 1955."
Correspondence: World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

59:10206 Breschi, Marco; De Santis, Gustavo. A new utilization of parish registers. The own-children method and its application in historical demography. [Hacia una nueva utilizacion de las matriculas de feligreses. El metodo de los hijos propios y su aplicacion en demografia historica.] Boletin de la Asociacion de Demografia Historica, Vol. 10, No. 2, 1992. 47-85 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
The authors apply the own-children method to the analysis of fertility trends, using data from historical parish registers. After a discussion of the available data sources and an explanation of the methodology used, they study the 1841 registers from the town of Treppio, Italy. A critical examination of the results is included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10207 Caldwell, John C.; Orubuloye, I. O.; Caldwell, Pat. Fertility decline in Africa: a new type of transition? Population and Development Review, Vol. 18, No. 2, Jun 1992. 211-42, 392-4 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"A number of recent surveys show that fertility has begun to decline in Botswana, Zimbabwe, Kenya, and southern Nigeria. This study of an urban area in southwest Nigeria confirms a fertility decline and throws light on the erosion of traditional supports for high fertility. The authors conclude that the sub-Saharan fertility transition is likely to differ during its early decades from the pattern established by the European and Asian transitions: the greatest demand for fertility control will come not from older women wishing to cease family building but from young married women who wish to maintain or lengthen traditional birth intervals even though the traditional mechanisms for achieving those ends are decaying. The onset of fertility decline is likely to be determined by the attainment of relatively low levels of infant and child mortality, substantial extension in female secondary education, an ample supply of contraceptives, and government leadership toward controlling family size."
Correspondence: J. C. Caldwell, Australian National University, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Health Transition Centre, GPO Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10208 Caldwell, John C. The Asian fertility revolution: its implications for transition theories. In: The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications, edited by Richard Leete and Iqbal Alam. 1993. 299-316 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
Asia's fertility transition and its determinants are explored, with a focus on the significance of the Asian experience for fertility transition theories.
Correspondence: J. C. Caldwell, Australian National University, GPO 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10209 Calot, Gerard. The relationships among cohort and period demographic indicators. [Relations entre indicateurs demographiques longitudinaux et transversaux.] Population, Vol. 47, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1992. 1,189-240 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"Demographers commonly distinguish between period indices which refer to observations at a point in time and cohort indices which refer to generations. In this study we are concerned with establishing relationships that make it possible to switch from one type of index to the other. We first look at renewable events whose frequency is measured by rates, and then at non-renewable events whose frequency is measured by probabilities. The hypothesis on which our method is based is that the variation frequencies over time can be approximated by polynomials over time intervals with a duration equal to that of an individual's exposure to risk. The quality of the relationships which are thus established between period and cohort values is evaluated by looking at fertility in France during the past hundred years: the results are considered satisfactory when based on the assumption that the approximating polynomial is a cubic."
Correspondence: G. Calot, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10210 Cameron, Jan. Why have children? A New Zealand case study. ISBN 0-908812-04-3. 1990. xviii, 142 pp. University of Canterbury Press: Christchurch, New Zealand. In Eng.
This is an analysis of contemporary fertility patterns among white New Zealanders. In addition to using traditional demographic methods of analysis, the author also solicits personal opinions and experiences using methods derived from sociology and ethnology. She attempts to answer such questions as why people want to have children, what is meant by the concept of a family, what factors affect the decision not to have children, and what is the value of children to adults.
Correspondence: University of Canterbury Press, Christchurch, New Zealand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10211 Chackiel, Juan; Schkolnik, Susana. The fertility transition in Latin America. [La transicion de la fecundidad en America Latina.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 20, No. 55, Jun 1992. 161-92 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"In this article fertility behaviour is analyzed between 1950 and 1990, and Latin American countries are classified according to the stages of the transition process. The analysis of fertility decline by age of women indicates that the decrease was more pronounced in women 30 years and over, due principally to a broader access to family planning services. Differences in fertility behaviour by level of urbanization, education and occupation were also analyzed."
Correspondence: J. Chackiel, U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10212 Choe, Minja Kim; Guo, Fei; Wu, Jianming; Zhang, Ruyue. Progression to second and third births in China: patterns and covariates in six provinces. International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 4, Dec 1992. 130-6, 149 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Data on ever-married women of reproductive age from six Chinese provinces were obtained from the 1987 In-Depth Fertility Survey, Phase II, to examine whether government population policies related to child mortality, rural residence, ethnic group and gender of the firstborn child, or individual characteristics such as educational level and living standard, are more important in determining which women have more than one child....While all covariates proved important, the most significant covariate for predicting a second birth, particularly in areas where few women have more than one child, was the death of the previous child. Having a daughter the first time also had a strong positive effect on the likelihood of having a second birth in some areas. While living standard had a significant effect on the likelihood of having a second birth in some areas, the findings do not support conjecture that rural families with the economic means to pay the penalties are more likely to have a second child. The results for third births were similar to those for second births."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1991 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: M. K. Choe, East-West Center, Program on Population, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10213 Clay, Daniel C.; Johnson, Nan E. Size of farm or size of family: which comes first? Population Studies, Vol. 46, No. 3, Nov 1992. 491-505 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The present study extends previous work on the relationship between the size of operational holdings and the number of children born to farm households by: (1) exploring it in [a Sub-Saharan] African country where arable lands are scarce; (2) using a two-stage least-squares...regression model based on cross-sectional data to disentangle the assumed reciprocity of the relationship; and (3) examining how the mode of tenure of farmland might condition the relationship. The results suggest that farm size does increase the marital fertility of farm couples but the possibility of a reciprocal effect (the Reverse Hypothesis) is rejected....It appears that improvements in the farm couple's family economy due to greater access to land raise their natural fertility and child survival rates more strongly than they reduce their demand for children." Data are from a survey of farm families in Rwanda.
Correspondence: D. C. Clay, Michigan State University, Department of Sociology, East Lansing, MI 48824-1111. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10214 Coale, Ansley J.; Freedman, Ronald. Similarities in the fertility transition in China and three other east Asian populations. In: The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications, edited by Richard Leete and Iqbal Alam. 1993. 208-38 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
Patterns in fertility transition in China over the period from the 1950s to 1985 are analyzed and compared with those for Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Total fertility and marital fertility rates are presented for individual Chinese provinces, and the effects of marriage age, geographic factors, and government policies on Chinese fertility decline are described.
Correspondence: A. J. Coale, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10215 de Sherbinin, Alex. Latin America: how a region surprised the experts. Population Today, Vol. 21, No. 2, Feb 1993. 6-7, 9 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author reviews the fertility decline in Latin America since the 1960s and compares it to the higher U.N. projections made in 1963. He finds that "over the past thirty years the regional TFR (total fertility rate...) has been cut in half, from 5.9 to 3.0....[But] some of the poorer countries in Central America (Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua) and the Caribbean (Haiti) still have TFRs of 5 or more."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10216 De Simoni, Alessandro. A simulation to test the effects of variations over time in fertility on the synthetic measure of period fertility. [Una simulazione per verificare gli effetti delle variazioni temporali della fecondita sulle misure sintetiche "del momento"] Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione Working Paper, No. 05/90, [1990]. 53 pp. Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione [IRP]: Rome, Italy. In Ita.
Some methodological concepts in the analysis of period fertility and fertility variations over time are discussed. The concepts are illustrated using official Italian data from the 1980s.
Correspondence: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione, Viale Beethoven 56, 00144 Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10217 Dinkel, Reiner H.; Milenovic, Ina. Cohort fertility of men and women in the Federal Republic of Germany. A measurement with data from empirical social research. [Die Kohortenfertilitat von Mannern und Frauen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Eine Messung mit Daten der empirischen Sozialforschung.] Kolner Zeitschrift fur Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie, Vol. 44, No. 1, 1992. 55-75, 201 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
The availability of mates and the consequences for cohort fertility by sex in Germany are analyzed using pooled data from various fertility surveys conducted since 1900. "All German male cohorts born before 1930 have a greater number of children than their female counterparts. German men up to cohorts around 1930 experienced favourable conditions of the marriage market due to the consequences of the two World Wars....The general decline of births beginning around 1970 will, however, turn around this relative position. Leaving the preferred age-difference between spouses unchanged smaller female cohorts will now be able to select partners from greater (and older) cohorts of potential male partners. These changing relative positions are already visible in the differences between male and female cohort fertility."
Correspondence: R. H. Dinkel, Universitat Bamberg, Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Feldkirchenstrasse 21, 8600 Bamberg, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

59:10218 Fagnani, Jeanne. Work and fertility in France and West Germany: do French women perform miracles? [Travail et fecondite en France et en Allemagne de l'Ouest: les francaises font-elles des prouesses?] Revue Francaise des Affaires Sociales, Vol. 46, No. 2, Apr-Jun 1992. 129-47 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
A comparative analysis of fertility and female employment in France and West Germany is presented. The author concludes that despite many demographic similarities between the two countries, French women both have higher fertility and work more than their German counterparts. Reasons for these differences are sought, including differences in value systems, attitudes toward large families, and pronatalist family allowances.
Correspondence: J. Fagnani, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNAF, Paris, France. Location: Yale University, Sterling Library, New Haven, CT.

59:10219 Fairlamb, Cheryl D.; Nieuwoudt, Wilhelmus L. Economic factors affecting human fertility in the developing areas of southern Africa. Agricultural Economics, Vol. 6, No. 2, 1991. 185-200 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
Economic factors affecting family size in the traditional rural sector of South Africa are analyzed using data from a survey of some 200 KwaZulu households. "Regression analysis was used to estimate the demand function [for children] and principal components analysis confirmed the underlying theoretical linkages. Results show that wife's education (expected income or opportunity cost), child help (benefits) and desired family size were important explanatory variables. Three components extracted represented the substitution effect, the income effect and child investment theory. Results show that investment in education, taken as a proxy for expected earnings, is a strong policy option for reducing family size."
Correspondence: C. D. Fairlamb, University of Natal, Department of Agricultural Economics, P.O. Box 375, Pietermaritzburg 3200, South Africa. Location: Rutgers University Library, New Brunswick, NJ.

59:10220 Georgellis, Yannis; Wall, Howard J. The fertility effect of dependent tax exemptions: estimates for the United States. Applied Economics, Vol. 24, No. 10, Oct 1992. 1,139-45 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The effect of the dependent tax exemption on the fertility rate in the United States is estimated. The estimation is an improvement on previous work in that a non-linear specification is used to better capture the shape of the demand for children. It is found that the marginal effect of the dependent exemption decreases with the level of the exemption. This suggests that although subsidies for childbearing will increase fertility, it becomes increasingly difficult for countries to increase fertility through this type of scheme."
Correspondence: Y. Georgellis, Staffordshire University, Division of Economics, Stoke-on-Trent ST4 2DS, England. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

59:10221 Hossain, Syeda Z. Effect of female education on the proximate determinants of fertility in Bangladesh. Rural Demography, Vol. 16, No. 1-2, 1989. 31-41 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"This paper investigates the effect of female education on fertility in Bangladesh...through three proximate determinants of fertility: marriage, postpartum non-susceptibility to conception, and contraception....The analysis found that a small amount of education tends to increase fertility....The effect of education on proximate determinants shows that it is positive for postpartum non-susceptibility to conception, [while] in contrast it is negative for marriage and contraception. Therefore, [the] contribution of the duration of postpartum non-susceptibility is stronger for less educated women, while marriage and contraception have important effects when education is high at the individual level."
Correspondence: S. Z. Hossain, University of Dhaka, Department of Sociology, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10222 Ishikawa, Akira. An analysis of recent regional fertility changes: the effect of changes in marital structure. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 48, No. 3, Oct 1992. 46-57 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Data on changes in marriage and fertility patterns for regions in Japan during the period 1970-1990 are analyzed and compared.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10223 Jones, Gavin W. Consequences of rapid fertility decline for old-age security. In: The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications, edited by Richard Leete and Iqbal Alam. 1993. 275-95 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The fertility decline in selected Asian countries and its implications for demographic aging are discussed. Consideration is given to changes in traditional family support systems for the aged, shifts to government social security systems, and the effects of industrialization and the rise of individualism in Asia. Some scenarios for the future are outlined.
Correspondence: G. W. Jones, Australian National University, GPO 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10224 Katus, Kalev. Fertility trend and regional differences in Estonia. Rahvastiku-Uuringud/Population Studies Series B, No. 12, 1991. 31 pp. Estonian Interuniversitary Population Research Centre: Tallinn, Estonia. In Eng.
The author analyzes data on fertility trends in Estonia over the period 1881-1989. Comparisons are made with the fertility transition in Europe as a whole over the same period. The author then presents data for Estonia by maakond (county) and assesses regional differences.
Correspondence: Estonian Interuniversitary Population Research Centre, P.O. Box 3012, 200090 Tallinn, Estonia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10225 Knudsen, Christin; McNown, Robert; Rogers, Andrei. Forecasting fertility: an application of time series methods to parameterized model schedules. Social Science Research, Vol. 22, No. 1, Mar 1993. 1-23 pp. Orlando, Florida. In Eng.
"This study employs parameterized model schedules of the age profiles of fertility to summarize age-specific rates with a small number of parameters. Time series models of the parameters capture the temporal patterns of the age profiles, and use this information to project the profiles of future vital rates. The model schedules are estimated by application of nonlinear least squares to fertility rates for [U.S.] women aged 14 through 49, for each calendar year from 1917 through 1988....Forecast evaluation over a 10-year holdout sample demonstrates the viability of the methodology. The time series models are updated through 1988 to generate fertility forecasts to the year 2000. The forecasts, showing an increase in the mean age of childbearing and a 9% rise in the total fertility rate, are compared with projections from the U.S. Bureau of the Census."
Correspondence: R. McNown, University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Campus Box 484, Boulder, CO 80309-0484. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

59:10226 Kravdal, Oystein. The emergence of a positive relation between education and third birth rates in Norway with supportive evidence from the United States. Population Studies, Vol. 46, No. 3, Nov 1992. 459-75 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author examines the effect of women's education on third-birth rates in Norway and compares the findings with a survey conducted in the United States. "Norwegian women who had a second birth during the late 1970s and had received more than 12 years of schooling gave birth to a third child more frequently than women who had only received the minimum compulsory education. Similar results were obtained for American women who had a second birth during the 1970s. Attempts to explain this positive effect of education in terms of economic status, or a differential impact on commitment to work by the mothers, have failed. It also seems that trends and variations in selection to parity 2 play a minor role."
Correspondence: O. Kravdal, Central Bureau of Statistics, Research Department, P.B. 8131, Dep. 0033 Oslo 1, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10227 Kwon, Tai-Hwan. Exploring socio-cultural explanations of fertility transition in South Korea. In: The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications, edited by Richard Leete and Iqbal Alam. 1993. 41-53 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author discusses factors affecting the fertility transition in the Republic of Korea. "Three questions will be considered. First, what are the major conditions associated with the initial decline of fertility in South Korea? Secondly, what development factors have been associated with fertility transition in different stages, and how? Thirdly, how could traditional culture (or fundamental cultural principles of behaviour) have contributed to the process of fertility transition?"
Correspondence: T.-H. Kwon, Seoul National University, Seoul 151, Republic of Korea. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10228 Lam, David A.; Miron, Jeffrey A.; Riley, Ann. Modeling seasonality in fecundability and births. Population Studies Center Research Report, No. 92-244, Jul 1992. 32 pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This paper uses a model of seasonal fluctuations in fecundability and births to analyze the plausibility of several proposed explanations of birth seasonality....We employ the model especially to examine the role of extreme heat in generating the observed seasonal pattern of births in the U.S. South."
This paper was prepared for presentation at the 1992 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1070. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10229 Larsen, Ulla; Vaupel, James W. Hutterite fecundability by age and parity: strategies for frailty modeling of event histories. Demography, Vol. 30, No. 1, Feb 1993. 81-102 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Effective fecundability declines with age and parity. Furthermore, women differ in their effective fecundability: some women have persistently low or high monthly chances of live-birth conception. Estimates are presented concerning the magnitude of these effects in a natural-fertility population: 406 Hutterite women in North America who had 3,206 births, largely in the 1940s and 1950s. The estimates are based on models that incorporate the effects of persistent heterogeneity and that use the full information provided by multiple-spell duration data. In addition, hazards rather than probabilities are modeled, piecewise linear hazard functions are used, and age and parity effects are decomposed systematically. These methods permit the development of more elaborate models of changing fecundability and of heterogeneity in postpartum amenorrhea."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: U. Larsen, State University of New York, Department of Sociology, Stony Brook, NY 11794-4356. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10230 Leete, Richard; Alam, Iqbal. Consequences of fertility transition in Asia. In: The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications, edited by Richard Leete and Iqbal Alam. 1993. 255-74 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This chapter begins by considering the consequences of low fertility for women's life-cycle behaviour in the context of changes from large extended families to small nuclear families. An important question is: To what extent will modernization and societal pressures lead to a convergence in the role of the family and intra-familial behaviour in different societies in Asia? It goes on to consider some of the consequences that rapid fertility decline has had in the East Asian countries of Japan and China....The final section briefly considers some of the issues related to concerns about the consequences of fertility decline on labour supply."
Correspondence: R. Leete, Economic Planning Unit, Prime Minister's Department, Jalan Dato' Onn, 50502 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10231 Leete, Richard; Alam, Iqbal. Fertility transition of similar cultural groups in different countries. In: The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications, edited by Richard Leete and Iqbal Alam. 1993. 239-52 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors discuss "how the fertility transitions of similar cultural groups can be both remarkably similar in differing socio-economic contexts, or quite different in rather similar socio-economic contexts. A summary comparison is made of the fertility transition of the Chinese in Shanghai with that of the Chinese in Hong Kong [and with]...those of the Chinese in the cities of Singapore and Taipei...." Consideration is given to the effects of religion, urban or rural residence, and socioeconomic development. Fertility trends and their determinants in selected western and southern Asian countries are also briefly described.
Correspondence: R. Leete, Economic Planning Unit, Prime Minister's Department, Jalan Dato' Onn, 50502 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10232 Leete, Richard; Alam, Iqbal. The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications. International Studies in Demography, ISBN 0-19-828791-7. LC 92-30010. 1993. xvii, 329 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
These are revised and updated versions of papers originally presented at a seminar on fertility change in Asia, held in Bangkok, Thailand, March 28-31, 1988. The papers are organized under six chapter headings covering an introduction to the fertility transition in Asia, individual country studies, regional and ethnic variations within countries, cross-national comparisons of cultural groups, the consequences of rapid fertility decline in Asia, and implications of the decline for transition theories. A list of authors and their affiliations is included.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Oxford University Press, Walton Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10233 Lehmann, Susan G. Contemporary Russian marriage and childbearing patterns: a challenge to low-fertility theory. Pub. Order No. DA9228237. 1992. 254 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This study was undertaken as a doctoral dissertation at Harvard University.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 53(5).

59:10234 Lesthaeghe, R.; Jolly, C. The start of the Sub-Saharan fertility transition: some answers and many questions. IPD Working Paper, No. 1992-4, 1992. 14, [12] pp. Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Interuniversity Programme in Demography: Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
The authors review fertility trends in Sub-Saharan Africa. "First, we shall document the so-called 'two-stage transition' and evaluate the impact of socio-economic development factors on the countervailing forces of shrinking traditional birth-spacing versus increasing contraceptive use. Second, we shall assess the role of female education in the these processes. Third, the issue of the 'quality-quantity trade-off' will be discussed in the light of Boserup's script (1985) of a 'crisis-led' transition, and finally, some major caveats will be introduced that deal with the reduced investment in key sectors such as health and schooling."
For the article by Ester Boserup, see 51:40334.
Correspondence: Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Centrum Sociologie, Interuniversity Programme in Demography, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10235 Lutz, Wolfgang; Scherbov, Sergei; Pirozhkov, Sergei. Reconstructing Ukrainian fertility during the years of cataclysms in the 1930s and 1940s. In: Acta demographica 1992, edited by Gunter Buttler, Gerhard Heilig, and Gerhard Schmitt-Rink. 1992. 103-16 pp. Physica-Verlag: Heidelberg, Germany. In Eng.
The authors reconstruct twentieth-century fertility rates for the Ukraine using the 1974 model developed by Coale and Trussell. "Because an important part of the problem is the lack of birth statistics for 17 out of 20 years during the 1930s and 1940s, this paper then will make an effort to reconstruct the missing data....By first converting the empirical 5-year age groups into single-year age groups, then transforming the period information into cohort data, applying the model fertility schedules and reconverting them into period data, plausible estimates can be generated that result in a complete record of Ukrainian fertility since 1925." The authors note that the large gaps in data for the period are due to political repression and war.
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10236 McDonald, Peter. Fertility transition hypotheses. In: The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications, edited by Richard Leete and Iqbal Alam. 1993. 3-14 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author first outlines the evolution of fertility transition theory by discussing major hypotheses and their proponents. He then provides an overview of the fertility transition in Asia, with a focus on the case of Japan.
Correspondence: P. McDonald, Australian Institute of Family Studies, 300 Queen Street, Melbourne 3000, Victoria, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10237 Miah, M. Mizanur R.; Mizan, Ainon N. Labor force participation and fertility: a study of married women in Bangladesh. International Journal of Sociology of the Family, Vol. 22, No. 2, Autumn 1992. 69-82 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"Applying multivariate analysis [to] Bangladesh Fertility Survey data, 1975-1976, this paper examines the relationship between women's labor force participation and fertility. The results show that women's modern and traditional occupation as well as higher and secondary education lower their fertility significantly. Other independent variables such as age, religion, practice of family planning...and husband's occupation...have significant positive effects on fertility. The implications of these findings for Bangladesh family planning programs and social development are discussed."
Correspondence: M. M. R. Miah, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL 62901-4515. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10238 Moreno, Lorenzo; Singh, Susheela. Fertility decline and changes in proximate determinants in Latin America and the Caribbean. [Descenso de la fecundidad y cambios en sus determinantes proximos en America Latina y el Caribe.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 20, No. 55, Jun 1992. 129-59 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"The objective of this paper is to discuss the role that three of the proximate determinants of fertility (marriage, contraception and post-partum insusceptibility) have played in fertility change in Latin America and the Caribbean. First we look at issues of data availability and comparability on measures of the proximate determinants from retrospective surveys. Most of the data utilized come from the World Fertility Survey (WFS) and the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) projects. Second, we present results from the most widely applied model for assessing the impact that these proximate determinants have on fertility, that of Bongaarts....Finally, we compare the results from the application of the Bongaarts model with those from an alternative method proposed by Moreno. Both models show that increased use of contraception is by far the most important reason for fertility decline, with marriage and post-partum insusceptibility making much smaller contributions. However, the second model suggests that the role of the marriage and post-partum insusceptibility factors is much smaller than is shown by the Bongaarts model."
Correspondence: L. Moreno, Mathematica Policy Research, P.O. Box 2393, Princeton, NJ 08543-2393. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10239 Odaman, Odion M. Fertility decline in Nigeria: the case of Ekpoma Region, Bendel State. Habitat International, Vol. 16, No. 1, 1992. 113-20 pp. Tarrytown, New York. In Eng.
Data concerning 624 randomly selected mothers in Ekpoma Region, Nigeria, are used to analyze socioeconomic and cultural determinants of fertility. Factors considered include education, occupation, income, religion, age at first marriage, breast-feeding, and contraceptive practice. The author concludes that the conditions for fertility decline are now in place and that this decline could be accelerated by discouraging early marriage, increasing female education, and promoting contraception.
Correspondence: O. M. Odaman, Bendel State University, P.O. Box 67, Ekpoma, Bendel State, Nigeria. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

59:10240 Otani, Kenji. A hazard analysis of birth timing in Japan since the 1960s. Kansai Daigaku Keizai Ronshu, Vol. 41, No. 4, 1991. 75-105 pp. Osaka, Japan. In Jpn.
"This paper carried out a multivariate hazard analysis of the first, second and third birth timings by applying [a] log-logistic model. The results are as follows: (1) When wives are employed, the first, second and third birth hazards are all smaller than others....(2) Coresiding with couple's parents is likely to raise the first, second and third birth hazards irrespective of wife's employment status; (3) Wives with tertiary level education are accompanied by a smaller first birth hazard compared with others, while wife's educational attainment does not show any effect on the second and third birth hazards; (4) White-collar husbands are associated with a smaller first birth hazard when their wife is employed; (5) Even after controlling for several background variables, the first, second and third birth timings were accelerated in the cohorts of the late 1960s. This result suggests that the birth timing change in the late 1960s was caused by some heterogeneity which is not considered in this study." An English summary is available from the author.
Correspondence: K. Otani, Kansai University, 3-35 Yamate-cho 3-chome, Suita-shi, Osaka 564, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10241 Otani, Kenji. The tempo and quantum components in trends in period fertility measures in present-day Japan: a Butz-Ward-type model and its application. Kansai Daigaku Keizai Ronshu, Vol. 40, No. 6, 1991. 69-95 pp. Osaka, Japan. In Jpn.
"This paper examined the validity of a Butz-Ward-type model by applying it to trends in Japan's fertility rates from 1968 to 1986. Most of the existing studies on the Butz-Ward model used total fertility rates as the dependent variable. As the Butz-Ward model is concerned with couples' fertility behaviors, [the author uses]...total marital fertility rates. We first calculated total marital fertility rates (TMFR) from 1968 to 1986 by using data of Japan's National Fertility Surveys....As a result of the auto-regression analysis of TMFR, we found a statistically significant negative effect of a rise in employed wife's wage rate as was expected. As for the timing indices, the third birth timing index was significantly positively affected by an increase in husband's income when his wife was employed, while the third birth was likely to be delayed by a rise in employed wife's wage rate." An English summary is available from the author.
Correspondence: K. Otani, Kansai University, 3-35 Yamate-cho 3-chome, Suita-shi, Osaka 564, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10242 Otani, Kenji. Trends in period fertility rates since the 1960s and Hino-e-uma in Japan. Kansai Daigaku Keizai Ronshu, Vol. 41, No. 2, 1991. 115-43 pp. Osaka, Japan. In Jpn.
The author calculates Japan's total marital fertility rate for the period 1962-1986 using national fertility survey data. A large drop in fertility is observed for 1966, a Hino-e-uma year; it is believed that women born in that year will eventually destroy their husbands. Differences between women in arranged and nonarranged marriages in fertility prevention strategies and second-birth timing patterns are discussed. An English summary is available from the author.
Correspondence: K. Otani, Kansai University, 3-35 Yamate-cho 3-chome, Suita-shi, Osaka 564, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10243 Parveen, Salma. Fertility estimates of Bangladesh using 1974 and 1981 census data. Rural Demography, Vol. 16, No. 1-2, 1989. 69-83 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"This paper provides some estimates of fertility level for different periods from 1974 and 1981 census data [for Bangladesh]. The fertility levels were estimated using some indirect methods of estimation. The birth rate during the 70's decade was observed to fall in the range of 45-48 per thousand....During the last intercensal period no significant change was observed between the measures of fertility."
Correspondence: S. Parveen, University of Dhaka, Institute of Statistical Research and Training, Ramna, Dhaka 2, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10244 Poggio, Sara Z. Gender inequality as a determinant of fertility among Mexican migrants, Mexican-Americans, and non-Hispanics in the United States. Pub. Order No. DA9222752. 1991. 129 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Maryland at College Park.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Location: Princeton University Library (DR). Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 53(4).

59:10245 Pool, Ian. The New Zealand family: structural changes in the context of shifts in societal values. New Zealand Population Review, Vol. 18, No. 1-2, May-Nov 1992. 69-86 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
"The fertility decline in New Zealand during the last two decades is explored in the light of experiences elsewhere, and of some of the theories developed to explain them. Much in New Zealand fits wider patterns, except for the special history of the Maori. Two key issues are addressed: The importance of changing ideas and social structural contexts, and the remarkable convergence and concurrence of worldwide trends. Stress is laid upon the impact of shared language and norms, and of the media to spread these."
Correspondence: I. Pool, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, Hamilton, New Zealand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10246 Rele, J. R.; Alam, Iqbal. Fertility transition in Asia: the statistical evidence. In: The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications, edited by Richard Leete and Iqbal Alam. 1993. 15-37 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
Data concerning the fertility transition in Asia are analyzed and compared by region. Consideration is given to total fertility rates, 1960-1990; proportion of women ever married by age, 1960-1990; and socioeconomic determinants, including maternal educational status, paternal occupation, and urban or rural residence.
Correspondence: I. Alam, U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, United Nations Building, Rajdamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10247 Robinson, Warren C. Kenya enters the fertility transition. Population Studies, Vol. 46, No. 3, Nov 1992. 445-57 pp. London, England. In Eng.
In the first part of this article, data pointing to a fertility decline in Kenya are discussed, including those from the 1989 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS). "In the second part of the paper the earlier almost universally pessimistic predictions regarding fertility in Kenya, which now appear to have been wrong are considered. Since Kenya has emerged as a bellwether among sub-saharan African states, these earlier predictions are re-examined with a view to learning from their mistakes. It is concluded that incorrect theoretical paradigms and assumptions led to the erroneous results, rather more than incorrect data, or analysis."
Correspondence: W. C. Robinson, Pennsylvania State University, Population Issues Research Center, University Park, PA 16802. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10248 Rosero Bixby, Luis. Nuptiality trends and the fertility transition in Latin America. [Las tendencias de la nupcialidad y la transicion de la fecundidad en America Latina.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 20, No. 55, Jun 1992. 103-28 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
The author uses census data to examine the impact of nuptiality on the fertility transition in Latin America. He finds that fertility decreased among adolescents during the 1960s, although no trend was observed for later decades. However, "an increase of legal marriages in connection with consensual unions was also observed. Apart from an [increase] in the number of illegitimate children, the impact of the increase of consensual unions upon fertility is uncertain. No regional trend was observed in connection with age at marriage. This stability suggests that Latin American patterns of marriage are determined by cultural factors rather than socioeconomic reasons."
Correspondence: L. Rosero Bixby, Universidad de Costa Rica, INISA, San Jose, Costa Rica. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10249 Sander, William. Catholicism and the economics of fertility. Population Studies, Vol. 46, No. 3, Nov 1992. 477-89 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this paper, we examine the effect of Catholicism on fertility in the United States. Several new findings are presented. Most importantly, it is shown that many studies on Catholicism and fertility are seriously flawed because of sample selection bias, which occurs because ex-Catholics prefer smaller families than non-Catholics. We also show that religious activity has no effect on fertility if it is treated as an endogenous variable. Further, it is shown that the fertility transition in the United States is partly related to the changing effect of Catholic norms. Thus, the direct effect of economic variables, such as women's earnings, on fertility might have been overstated...."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1991 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: W. Sander, DePaul University, Department of Economics, Chicago, IL 60604. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10250 Schott, Jurgen. Fertility analysis for East Germany, 1968 and 1986. [Zur Analyse der fertilitat in der DDR im Zeitraum 1968 bis 1986.] In: Acta demographica 1992, edited by Gunter Buttler, Gerhard Heilig, and Gerhard Schmitt-Rink. 1992. 223-35 pp. Physica-Verlag: Heidelberg, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
Fertility trends in the former East Germany are analyzed and compared using birth order data for the years 1968 and 1986. The author concludes that the trend toward a smaller family size increased over the period.
Correspondence: J. Schott, Geschwister-Scholl-Strasse 19, D-3320 Salzgitter 1, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10251 Shah, Iqbal H.; Cleland, John G. High fertility in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan: motives vs. means. In: The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications, edited by Richard Leete and Iqbal Alam. 1993. 175-207 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Despite a long history of family planning promotion, fertility in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan remains high....This chapter re-examines the dominant explanations given for the persistence of high fertility in these countries. In particular, it assesses the hypothesis that their socio-economic structures provide an economic rationality or institutional logic for high fertility. An examination is also made of the evidence that the high cost of contraception, broadly defined, is a major barrier to fertility decline."
Correspondence: I. H. Shah, World Health Organization, Special Program in Human Reproduction, Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10252 Sharif, Mohammed; Saha, Ranjan K. The observed landholding-fertility relationship--is it monotonic? Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 29, No. 2, Jan 1993. 319-41 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The authors study the effect of land tenure on fertility using data collected in 1986 in rural villages in Bangladesh. It is noted that "the uncontrolled effect of landholding on fertility is positive; however, when the impact of pooling land in extended families is controlled for, the effect turns negative; yet the addition of a quadratic term for landholding provides a significantly U-shape relationship. The non-monotonic relationship is analysed in terms of 'prestige-cost' of child labour which is assumed to increase with landholding, but to generate differential child contributions to household income and potential old-age support to parents."
Correspondence: M. Sharif, University of Rhode Island, Department of Economics, Kingston, RI 02881. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

59:10253 Singh, Girish; Bhardwaj, S. D.; Singh, A. S. Fertility analysis by linear regression model. Health and Population: Perspectives and Issues, Vol. 13, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1990. 68-75 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng. with sum. in Hin.
The authors use a linear regression model to analyze factors affecting fertility in 15 states in India. Included in the analysis are infant mortality rates, couple protection rates, and female literacy, age at marriage, and employment. Data are from 1986 official sources.
Correspondence: G. Singh, Banaras Hindu University, Department of Statistics, Varanasi, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10254 Skeldon, Ronald. On mobility and fertility transitions in east and southeast Asia. Asian and Pacific Migration Journal, Vol. 1, No. 2, 1992. 220-49 pp. Quezon City, Philippines. In Eng.
"The relationship between fertility and mobility is examined with reference to Zelinsky's [1971] mobility transition hypothesis. Five Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, China) at different stages of development and mobility transition are compared with respect to shifting sectoral patterns of migration and changing levels of fertility. National trends suggest that the development sequence proposed by Zelinsky on the basis of the European experience does not generally apply to Asia. In four out of five cases examined, fertility declined before substantial urbanization took place. Zelinsky's sequence of mobility change should be modified to fit the experience of developing countries...."
Correspondence: R. Skeldon, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10255 Srivastava, J. N. Impact of female age at marriage, age at first termination, parental education and occupational status on fertility in Lucknow City. Health and Population: Perspectives and Issues, Vol. 13, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1990. 114-28 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng. with sum. in Hin.
"Using the data collected from a sample of 916 mothers of Lucknow [India] in...a follow-up of hospital delivery cases of the city's largest maternity hospital, an attempt has been made to study the impact of important policy...factors on fertility through analysis of fertility differentials. The findings revealed that a rise in age at marriage of mother and her age at first termination have been associated with the marked decline in fertility. Educational level of both parents has a negative influence on fertility but the negative influence of mother's educational level has been far larger than that of the father. Occupational status of father has also been inversely related with fertility of the couple. Lastly, mother's participation in economic activities, particularly in white collar and technical occupations, has a sharp negative influence on her fertility."
Correspondence: J. N. Srivastava, Lucknow University, Department of Economics, Population Research Centre, Lucknow 226 007, Uttar Pradesh, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10256 Steahr, Thomas E.; McMullin-Messier, Pamela. Fertility trends in Connecticut by race and by town, 1980 to 1990. Storrs Agricultural Experiment Station Research Report, No. 85, Sep 1992. 30, [32] pp. University of Connecticut, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Storrs Agricultural Experiment Station: Storrs, Connecticut. In Eng.
"A purpose of this report is to examine trends in births in Connecticut from 1980 to 1990 and to provide an initial analysis of the numerical pattern of change. This will be accomplished by an examination of fertility patterns by race and by town and county levels."
Correspondence: T. E. Steahr, University of Connecticut, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Storrs, CT 06269. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10257 United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Development (New York, New York). Patterns of fertility in low-fertility settings. No. ST/ESA/SER.A/131, Pub. Order No. E.92.XIII.11. ISBN 92-1-151248-4. 1992. viii, 134 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The present publication provides an overall assessment of fertility levels and trends in low-fertility countries for the period from 1965 to 1989 or to the most recent year for which pertinent data are available. The study is both descriptive and analytical. Reproductive behaviour is examined in terms not only of fertility rates (mainly period rates but of cohort rates whenever data were available), as well as in terms of total number of births. Various other aspects of fertility, including population replacement, adolescent fertility, birth order and illegitimate fertility, are also examined."
Correspondence: U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Development, Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10258 Varea, Carlos. Marriage, age at last birth and fertility in a traditional Moroccan population. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 25, No. 1, Jan 1993. 1-15 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"A sample of 842 rural women from Morocco (Amizmiz, Marrakech) was used to examine the relationship between a number of biosocial variables and fertility patterns. For women still in their reproductive years there were significant correlations between family size and woman's age, age at marriage and years of marriage. Among women with completed families, those with early age at marriage ceased childbearing about 10 years before reaching menopause, while women who married later continued to bear children until the end of their fertile life."
Correspondence: C. Varea, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Departamento de Biologia, Unidad de Antropologia, 28049 Madrid, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10259 Ventura, Stephanie J.; Taffel, Selma M.; Mosher, William D.; Henshaw, Stanley. Trends in pregnancies and pregnancy rates, United States, 1980-88. NCHS Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 41, No. 6, Suppl., Pub. Order No. DHHS (PHS) 93-1120. Nov 16, 1992. 12 pp. U.S. National Center for Health Statistics [NCHS]: Hyattsville, Maryland. In Eng.
"This is the third in a series of reports that estimates the number of [U.S.] pregnancies and pregnancy rates by age and race of woman based on the latest available information....Although data on pregnancies and pregnancy rates for 1976-88 are shown in this report, information for the period 1976-79 is included mainly for historical reference. The focus of the present analysis is on changes in the overall number and rate of pregnancies and its components during the 1980's, and on differences for the year 1988 by mother's age and race. The most recent year covered is 1988...." Data are from official published sources.
Correspondence: National Center for Health Statistics, 6525 Belcrest Road, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10260 Winegarden, C. R.; Wheeler, Mark. The role of economic growth in the fertility transition in Western Europe: econometric evidence. Economica, Vol. 59, No. 236, Nov 1992. 421-35 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors "construct a structural model in which economic growth causes nonlinear changes in fertility, and then...test this model with time-series data for four Western European countries....In [Section I] of the paper, we briefly review the theoretical background of our topic. Section II then presents the econometric model and explains its rationale. Data and estimation methods are discussed in Section III. Regression results are presented and examined in Section IV. In Section V we discuss alternative methods and specifications used to test for robustness. Section VI describes our simulations, both historical and counterfactual." Data for Germany, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom for the period 1850-1930 are used to illustrate the model.
Correspondence: C. R. Winegarden, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

59:10261 Wowkova, Wlaburga; Fialova, Ludmila. Fertility of women married before 1800 at Jablonec nad Nisou. [Plodnost vdanych zen v Jablonci nad Nisou do roku 1800.] Demografie, Vol. 34, No. 3, 1992. 223-34 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Using data from parish registers and family reconstitution methods, the authors analyze fertility levels and trends for women married before 1800 in the town of Jablonec nad Nisou, Czech Republic. "Analyzing matrimonial fertility of these families we have found...that during the whole 18th century the level of matrimonial fertility...was stable....The number of children in a family depended on the age of woman at the time of marriage and length of marriage duration."
Correspondence: W. Wowkova, Okresni Archiv, Jablonec nad Nisou, Czech Republic. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10262 Wu, Cangping; Jia, Shan. The Chinese culture and fertility decline. Population Research, Vol. 8, No. 4, Dec 1991. 1-8, 49 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
Fertility trends in China since 1949 are analyzed and regional patterns are compared. The focus is on the effects of culture, including religion, collectivism, and sex preference. Some comparisons with other developing and Asian countries are made.
Correspondence: C. Wu, People's University of China, Institute of Population Research, 39 Haidian Road, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10263 Xie, Yu; Pimentel, Ellen E. Age patterns of marital fertility: revising the Coale-Trussell method. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 87, No. 420, Dec 1992. 977-84 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This article revises the Coale-Trussell method for analyzing data from the World Fertility Survey by proposing and testing alternative log-linear and log-multiplicative models. The models, in one form or another, represent the structural constraint underlying the Coale-Trussell method on the variation in the age pattern of human fertility. With a Poisson distribution assumption for the number of births, several parameters of the models are simultaneously estimated via maximum likelihood. It is shown that the new approach can be adopted whenever fertility limitation is compared across multiple populations or subpopulations."
Correspondence: Y. Xie, University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

59:10264 Xie, Yu; Pimentel, Ellen E. Age patterns of marital fertility: revising the Coale-Trussell method. Population Studies Center Research Report, No. 92-241, Jun 1992. 13, [10] pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This paper revises the Coale-Trussell method for analyzing data from the World Fertility Survey by proposing and testing alternative loglinear and log-multiplicative models. The models, in one form or another, represent the structural constraint underlying the Coale-Trussell method on the variation in the age pattern of human fertility." The focus is on developing countries.
Correspondence: University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1070. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.2. Differential Fertility

59:10265 Belacek, Jaromir. Regional fertility differentials in the north Bohemian region. [Regionalni diferenciace plodnosti v Severoceskem kraji.] Demografie, Vol. 34, No. 4, 1992. 284-300 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author summarizes the results of a fertility survey carried out in 71 northern Bohemian regions of former Czechoslovakia. Information is given by region on birth weight, birth order, legitimacy, economic and educational status of mother, total fertility, and age-specific fertility. Data concern the period 1982-1987.
Correspondence: J. Belacek, Ceskoslovenska Academie Ved, Socialne Ekonomicky Ustav, Prague, Czech Republic. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10266 Bentley, Gillian R.; Goldberg, Tony; Jasienska, Grazyna. The fertility of agricultural and non-agricultural traditional societies. Population Issues Research Center Working Paper, No. 1992-02, Feb 1992. 27, [21] pp. Pennsylvania State University, Institute for Policy Research and Evaluation, Population Issues Research Center: University Park, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
"A comparison of demographic data in a comparative sample of traditional, natural fertility societies demonstrates that the mean total fertility rate of populations practicing intensive agriculture is significantly higher than that of foragers and horticulturalists. Our findings support the association that demographers and economists have long maintained between the intensification of subsistence technology and increases in human fertility. This higher fertility probably results from changes in the nutritional status, marriage patterns and breastfeeding practices that frequently accompany subsistence intensification. Our findings also contradict claims by Kenneth Campbell and James Wood that there are no significant differences in the total fertility rates of traditional natural fertility populations. This contradiction is resolved by a re-examination of Campbell and Wood's sample of populations which includes several transitional, acculturating groups with higher fertility in their foraging category."
The article by Campbell and Wood was published in "Natural Human Fertility: Social and Biological Mechanisms", edited by P. Diggory, S. Teper, and M. Potts, pp. 39-69, London, England, 1988.
Correspondence: Pennsylvania State University, Institute for Policy Research and Evaluation, Population Issues Research Center, 22 Burrowes Building, University Park, PA 16802. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10267 Caldas, Stephen J. Current theoretical perspectives on adolescent pregnancy and childbearing in the United States. Journal of Adolescent Research, Vol. 8, No. 1, Jan 1993. 4-20 pp. Newbury Park, California. In Eng.
"The purpose of this article is to synthesize and place in perspective contemporary theories and explanations of the high rates of adolescent pregnancy and childbearing in the United States. The study examined the strengths and weaknesses of the more prominent explanations of adolescent pregnancy and childbearing in light of current research....This article casts doubt on the hypothesis that the lack of reproductive information is in and of itself an important determinant of adolescent pregnancy in the United States. Many other factors are discussed that intervene to negate the effect of reproductive knowledge alone as a deterrent to adolescent pregnancy and childbearing. Suggestions for an integrative research agenda, as well as educational and health strategies focusing on adolescent pregnancy and childbearing are proposed."
Correspondence: S. J. Caldas, Louisiana Department of Education, P.O. Box 94064, Baton Rouge, LA 70804-9064. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10268 Grindstaff, Carl F. A vanishing breed: women with large families: Canada in the 1980s. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 19, No. 2, 1992. 145-62 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The purpose of this paper is to examine a selection of socio-demographic variables associated with three different parity distributions (no children, two children and four or more children) of women aged 35-39...in Canada in 1981. Data are primarily from the 1981 Census of Canada, Public Use Sample Tape. The findings are examined within the context of Caldwell's theory of flow of wealth within families. The large family is clearly a 'vanishing breed' in Canada, as only 15% of ever-married women aged 35-39 have four or more children. These women are distinguished by early age at marriage and low levels of human capital accumulation."
Correspondence: C. F. Grindstaff, University of Western Ontario, Department of Sociology, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10269 Haque, Muhammad M. A multilevel contextual analysis of fertility differentials in Bangladesh. Pub. Order No. DA9226193. 1992. 238 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Utah.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Location: Princeton University Library (DR). Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 53(4).

59:10270 Hoffman, Saul D.; Foster, E. Michael; Furstenberg, Frank F. Reevaulating the costs of teenage childbearing. Demography, Vol. 30, No. 1, Feb 1993. 1-13 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Teenage childbearing in the United States has long been regarded as an important social problem with substantial costs to teen mothers and their children. Recently, however, several researchers have argued that the apparent negative effects of teenage childbearing primarily reflect unmeasured family background rather than the true consequences of a teen birth. To distinguish the effect of teen childbearing from that of family background, we use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and compare teen mothers with their sisters. We find that accounting for unobserved family background reduces, but does not eliminate, the estimated consequences of early childbearing. Statistically significant and quantitatively important effects of teen parenthood remain for high school graduation, family size, and economic well-being."
Correspondence: S. D. Hoffman, University of Delaware, Department of Economics, Newark, DE 19716. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10271 Johnson, N. E. Hindu and Christian fertility in India: a test of three hypotheses. Population Studies Center Research Report, No. 92-237, Apr 1992. 20, [7] pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
The author uses three hypotheses to analyze fertility differences between Hindus and Christians in India. "This study used data from the 1981 Census of India to calculate mean numbers of children ever born per wife aged 35-44 years....The implications for theory and policy are explored."
Correspondence: University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1070. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10272 Krishnan, Vijaya; Krotki, Karol J. Immigrant fertility: an examination of social characteristics and assimilation. Sociological Focus, Vol. 25, No. 1, Feb 1992. 27-38 pp. Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"This study compares the fertility patterns of foreign-born and native-born women in Canada and examines whether [the] same set of social characteristics accounts for differential fertility among both the groups. The study also assesses the importance of social characteristics and assimilation on immigrant fertility behavior. Two generations of currently married/cohabiting women with spouse present are analyzed using multiple regressions. The results reveal similar effects on fertility of social characteristics for foreign-born and native-born, while in the case of younger generations the effects are stronger."
Correspondence: V. Krishnan, Family and Social Services, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

59:10273 Leete, Richard; Tan, Boon Ann. Contrasting fertility trends among ethnic groups in Malaysia. In: The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications, edited by Richard Leete and Iqbal Alam. 1993. 128-47 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
Fertility patterns among ethnic groups in Malaysia are compared for the period 1955-1990. Separate consideration is given to net reproduction rates, female labor force participation, occupational status, marriage age, parity, and contraceptive prevalence rates for Chinese, Indians, and Malays. The effect of the Islamic religion on the Malays' higher fertility rate is discussed.
Correspondence: R. Leete, Economic Planning Unit, Prime Minister's Department, Jalan Dato' Onn, 50502 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10274 Moore, Kristin A. A state-by-state look at teenage childbearing in the U.S. 1991. 110, [4] pp. Charles Stewart Mott Foundation: Flint, Michigan. In Eng.
This report presents statistics on U.S. adolescent childbearing by state. "Among the data contained in the book are: birthrates by mother's age; births to unmarried mothers; births by race and age; and first births to teens by race. In many instances, data are shown for 1970, 1980 and 1988...for ease of comparison. In addition to providing some abortion data, the book also examines teenage pregnancy and birth figures (including breakdowns by marital status and race) for the major cities in each state." Data are from a variety of official and other sources.
Correspondence: Charles Stewart Mott Foundation, 1200 Mott Foundation Building, Flint, MI 48502-1851. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10275 Ooms, Theodora; Herendeen, Lisa. Teenage pregnancy prevention programs: what have we learned? Background briefing report and meeting highlights. LC 91-188434. 1990. v, 22 pp. American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy, Research and Education Foundation, Family Impact Seminar: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is a report from a seminar on teenage pregnancy prevention programs in the United States, held May 26, 1989, in Washington, D.C. The panelists examine which programs work and why, and discuss the role of federal funding in the prevention of adolescent pregnancy.
Correspondence: American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy, Research and Education Foundation, Family Impact Seminar, 1100 Seventeenth Street NW, Tenth Floor, Washington, D.C. 20036. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10276 Pandey, G. D. Fertility in the Kol tribe of Madhya Pradesh. Journal of Family Welfare, Vol. 37, No. 4, Dec 1991. 59-64 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
"An attempt has been made to study fertility levels in Kol women of Satna district of Madhya Pradesh [India]...based on retrospective data [from 1990] on the fertility performance of a sample of 919 eligible tribal couples consisting of 442 Kol couples and 477 couples belonging to other tribes....The results indicate that Kol women take longer to conceive after marriage as compared to women of other tribes. Since the age at marriage for women belonging to the two tribal groups does not differ considerably, it appears that fecundability is lower among the Kol women."
Correspondence: G. D. Pandey, Medical College, Regional Medical Research Centre for Tribals, Jabalpur 482 003, India. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

59:10277 Peng, Xizhe. Regional differentials in China's fertility transition. In: The revolution in Asian fertility: dimensions, causes, and implications, edited by Richard Leete and Iqbal Alam. 1993. 99-127 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
Regional trends in the fertility decline in China since the 1950s are discussed. Consideration is given to marital fertility, age patterns, the timing of first births, nuptiality, local traditions and kinship influences, and the effect of sex preference. The author concludes that "the fertility transition occurred much earlier, say by about one decade, in the urban areas....Nevertheless, changes...in both urban and rural populations have been influenced by the government's determined efforts in population control."
Correspondence: X. Peng, Fudan University, 220 Handan Road, Shanghai, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10278 Petersen, Donna J.; Alexander, Greg R. Seasonal variation in adolescent conceptions, induced abortions, and late initiation of prenatal care. Public Health Reports, Vol. 107, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1992. 701-6 pp. Rockville, Maryland. In Eng.
"The monthly distribution of conceptions among adolescents and the proportion of adolescent pregnancies that are voluntarily terminated by induced abortion by month of conception are the objects of this study. Additionally, seasonal variations in the timing of initiation of prenatal care services by adolescents are investigated....There was a significant difference between adolescents and adults in the monthly distribution of conceptions. The peak month of adolescent conceptions coincided with the end of the school year. Pregnancies of adolescents occurring at this time further demonstrated later access of prenatal care services than conceptions occurring at other times of the year, most notably during the school term. These findings suggest that there is considerable opportunity for improving the availability of reproductive health care services for adolescents." Data are for the state of South Carolina and cover the period 1979-1986.
Correspondence: D. J. Petersen, Minnesota Department of Health, Maternal and Child Health Division, 717 Delaware Street SE, Minneapolis, MN 55440. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10279 Rosenheim, Margaret K.; Testa, Mark F. Early parenthood and coming of age in the 1990s. ISBN 0-8135-1815-6. LC 91-40325. 1992. xiii, 264 pp. Rutgers University Press: New Brunswick, New Jersey. In Eng.
This volume presents an interdisciplinary approach to the study of adolescent parenthood. "By considering how the contexts of early parenthood have changed historically, compare cross-nationally, and differ by age, race, and class in the United States, the [13] essays try to clarify the nature of the contemporary problem of teenage parenthood and to sharpen the focus of policies aimed at preventing teenage pregnancy and supporting adolescent parents and their children." The primary focus is on the United States, but two of the essays examine the situation in South Korea and Sweden.
Correspondence: Rutgers University Press, 109 Church Street, New Brunswick, NJ 08901. Location: New York Public Library.

59:10280 Shapiro, David; Tambashe, Oleko. Fertility differentials by education and employment in Kinshasa and prospects for changes in fertility behavior. Population Issues Research Center Working Paper, No. 1992-12, Jun 1992. 29, [10] pp. Pennsylvania State University, Institute for Policy Research and Evaluation, Population Issues Research Center: University Park, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
"This paper examines fertility behavior of women in Kinshasa, Zaire's capital city....The principal data source for the empirical analyses is a household survey of reproductive-age women that was carried out in 1990....The bulk of the paper looks at relationships linking women's education, employment, and fertility behavior (children ever born, age at first marriage, contraception, breastfeeding, and postpartum abstinence)....We examine differences in lifetime fertility and in key proximate determinants of fertility by education and by employment status. Other things equal, there are significant differences by educational attainment and by employment status in lifetime fertility and in most of the proximate determinants as well."
This paper was originally presented at the 1992 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: Pennsylvania State University, Institute for Policy Research and Evaluation, Population Issues Research Center, 22 Burrowes Building, University Park, PA 16802. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10281 Srivastava, J. N. Fertility differentials among white collar workers. Health and Population: Perspectives and Issues, Vol. 13, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1990. 162-70 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng. with sum. in Hin.
"Utilising data collected from a sample of 1,210 white collar workers working in the Uttar Pradesh State Government Secretariat, Lucknow City, [India,] this paper attempts to investigate fertility differentials among white collar workers. The findings revealed that age at marriage of wife, her education, and her participation in white collar occupations exercise strong negative influence on fertility....Per capita income and family status have also been observed to exercise negative influence on fertility. Fertility differentials by origin of the couples, by religion and caste status have also been considered, which suggest the strength of cultural factors in influencing fertility even among educated and...employed sections of the Indian population."
Correspondence: J. N. Srivastava, Lucknow University, Department of Economics, Population Research Centre, Lucknow 226 007, Uttar Pradesh, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10282 United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP] (Bangkok, Thailand). Adolescent reproductive behaviour: Asian and Pacific region. Population Research Leads, No. 41, 1992. 10 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
"This note reviews aspects of adolescent childbearing, marriage and sexual exposure, and contraceptive practice in [Asia and the Pacific]."
Correspondence: U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, Population Information Section, United Nations Building, Rajdamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.3. Sterility and Other Pathology

59:10283 Garnett, Geoffrey P.; Swinton, Jonathan; Brunham, Robert C.; Anderson, Roy M. Gonococcal infection, infertility, and population growth: II. The influence of heterogeneity in sexual behaviour. Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology, Vol. 9, No. 2, 1992. 127-44 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The authors describe the development of a simple mathematical model, incorporating...heterogeneity [in sexual behavior], to investigate the demographic impact of gonorrhoea on human population growth in developing countries where the disease is endemic. Earlier predictions, based on a model with homogeneous mixing, are shown to be in good qualitative agreement with the predictions of a more complex mathematical framework in which the population is stratified both by sex and into two subgroups representing low and high sexual activity, defined on the basis of rates of sexual partner change....The more complex model supports earlier conclusions that gonorrhoea, via its impact on fertility, can significantly reduce net population growth rates."
For a related study by Swinton et al., see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: G. P. Garnett, London University, Imperial College, Parasite Epidemiology Research Group, London SW7 2BB, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10284 Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Partin, Melissa. Determinants of low birthweight: a comparative study. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 25, No. 1, Jan 1993. 87-100 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"The study compares biological, socioeconomic and behavioural determinants of low birthweight in Cameroon and the United States. Some factors in low birthweight are found to be cross-national, but others are specific to the setting. Positive risk factors of low birthweight in both countries include unmarried motherhood, female sex, multiple births, and preterm births. Outcome of the previous pregnancy is a positive risk factor in the U.S., but not in Cameroon. Significant negative risk factors include prenatal care visits (in both countries), mother's education (in the U.S. only), births to mothers aged 20-34 and birth orders of 2 or more (in Cameroon only). Separate analyses of all births and the subsamples of singleton births reveal that estimates for the two groups differ only marginally."
Correspondence: B. Kuate Defo, University of Wisconsin, Center for Demography and Ecology, 4412 Social Science Building, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706-1393. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10285 Swinton, Jonathan; Garnett, Geoffrey P.; Brunham, Robert C.; Anderson, Roy M. Gonococcal infection, infertility, and population growth: I. Endemic states in behaviourally homogeneous growing populations. Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology, Vol. 9, No. 2, 1992. 107-26 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors develop a simple model describing the conditions under which sexually transmitted diseases can cause infertility in growing developing-country populations in which sexual partners are chosen at random. The model is used to show how gonorrhea can reduce the rate of population growth in some communities. "For example, the simple model predicts that [an infection] prevalence of 20% in sexually active adults results in a 50% reduction in the population growth rate. Finally, the authors discuss how potential control initiatives may change the parameter values that determine transmission and alter the demographic impact of gonorrhoea."
For a related study by Garnett et al., see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: J. Swinton, London University, Imperial College, Parasite Epidemiology Research Group, London SW7 2BB, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.4. Actions and Activities Directly Affecting Fertility

F.4.1. General Fertility Control and Contraception

59:10286 Altaf, Samia W. The nature of demand for contraceptive service: implications for family planning programmes in Pakistan. Health and Population: Perspectives and Issues, Vol. 14, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1991. 125-30 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng. with sum. in Hin.
"The present study was designed to determine the nature of demand for the contraceptive services, in [the] context of the existing socio-economic and cultural conditions [in Pakistan]. The findings revealed that a majority of the women surveyed practised contraception, even though they considered it against their religious beliefs....It was suggested that the programmes be targeted much more towards males because...critical decisions regarding reproduction continue to be made by them." The study was conducted during 1985-1986 among 93 married Muslim women attending a medical clinic in Karachi.
Correspondence: S. W. Altaf, Development Research and Management Services, 23 Golf Avenue Canal Bank, Moghalpura, Lahore, Pakistan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10287 Bangladesh Academy for Rural Development (Comilla, Bangladesh). Sustainability of family planning NGOs in Bangladesh. Workshop report, August 27-28, 1991. [1992?]. [194] pp. Pathfinder International: Watertown, Massachusetts. In Eng.
These are the proceedings of a workshop held in Comilla, Bangladesh, on August 27-28, 1991, concerning the sustainability of family planning nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and USAID Cooperating Agencies (CAs) in Bangladesh. "The workshop's purpose was to share the experiences of CAs and NGOs in working towards financial sustainability, specifically addressing cost-saving and cost-recovery activities....Eleven papers documenting CA and NGO financial sustainability experiences were presented. Participants were divided into five groups to discuss the papers, USAID strategy, and to identify issues of concern, need, and future action." A list of participants is included.
Correspondence: Pathfinder International, 9 Galen Street, Watertown, MA 02172-4501. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

59:10288 Bhuyan, K. C. Social mobility and family planning practices in rural Bangladesh--a case study. Journal of Family Welfare, Vol. 37, No. 4, Dec 1991. 46-58 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
"In this paper, an attempt has been made to study family planning behaviour of couples by their educational and occupational status by analysing the changes in these factors among their parents. The present study was based on data obtained from a survey on a case study of the socio-economic condition of rural people in Bangladesh....In all, 1,250 couples were interviewed [about]...the social mobility of female respondents (wives) and their family planning behaviour."
Correspondence: K. C. Bhuyan, Jehangirnagar University, Department of Statistics, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

59:10289 Bulatao, Rodolfo A. Family planning: the unfinished revolution. Finance and Development, Vol. 29, No. 4, Dec 1992. 5-8 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is a general overview of family planning programs in developing countries, with a focus on east and southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The author concludes that "by the year 2000, the number of contraceptive users in developing countries will have to be 40 percent higher if fertility declines are to match projections." Suggestions for program improvement are included.
Correspondence: R. A. Bulatao, World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department, Population Policy and Advisory Staff, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10290 Catholics for a Free Choice (Washington, D.C.). Contraception in Catholic doctrine: the evolution of an earthly code. Powerful Conceptions: A Series on Bishops and Birth Control, ISBN 0-915365-21-9. 1991. 28 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This publication provides a critical examination of the Catholic church's official ban on artificial contraception. It "traces the impact of sexism, anti-sexual ideology, population pressures, and other worldly forces on the development of the ban....The booklet chronicles the long history of dissent to the teaching--up to present-day objections raised by bishops, theologians, and others the world over. The publication also explores the church's attitude toward feminism....Finally, the booklet offers an explanation for the church's obdurate stance on contraception."
Correspondence: Catholics for a Free Choice, 1436 U Street NW, Suite 301, Washington, D.C. 20009. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10291 Chandra, Savita. Demographic features of tubectomy acceptors in Goa. Journal of Family Welfare, Vol. 38, No. 1, Mar 1992. 23-9 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
"This study aimed at analysing selected characteristics of female acceptors who underwent sterilisation in the Obstetrics and Gynaecology Department of Goa Medical College [in India]....The data were collected...over the five-year period from 1st January 1986 to 31st December 1990....Tubectomy is observed to be accepted at a young age (average 30.1 years) with 67 per cent of acceptors having two or three children. Over half or 56.1 per cent of the acceptors are self-motivated and 21.2 per cent have children of one sex only." Other factors considered are literacy and religion, with 79 percent of acceptors being Hindu.
Correspondence: S. Chandra, Goa Medical College, Post-Partum Programme, Panaji, Goa 403 202, India. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

59:10292 Chi, I-Cheng; Thapa, Shyam. Postpartum tubal sterilisation: an international perspective on some programmatic issues. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 25, No. 1, Jan 1993. 51-61 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"This paper discusses primarily the programmatic issues of postpartum sterilisation, with particular attention to developing countries in relation to: (1) demand for postpartum sterilisation, relative to interval sterilisation; (2) the appropriate timing of postpartum sterilisation; (3) effects on lactation; (4) the risk factors of regret in women after postpartum sterilisation; (5) the dual protection issue [the contraceptive effects of postpartum contraception and the temporary natural suppression of fertility after delivery]; and (6) actual service provision."
Correspondence: I-C. Chi, Family Health International, One Triangle Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10293 Chowdhury, A. I.; Fauveau, Vincent; Aziz, K. M. A. Effect of child survival on contraceptive use in Bangladesh. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 24, No. 4, Oct 1992. 427-32 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"This paper examines the changes in couples' contraceptive behaviour as a result of infant or child mortality over a 24-month period. Differential contraceptive use was also examined in relation to mother's age, parity, husband's education and sex of the last child. The data are from the Matlab upazila study of a rural community in Bangladesh, which...concerned...the 2,111 women who were present in three surveys in 1977, 1978 and 1979."
Correspondence: A. I. Chowdhury, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, GPO Box 128, Dhaka 2, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10294 Cotten, Niki; Stanback, John; Maidouka, Halima; Taylor-Thomas, Joseph T.; Turk, Tom. Early discontinuation of contraceptive use in Niger and the Gambia. International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 4, Dec 1992. 145-9 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"In 1989 and 1990, studies were conducted among 650 new contraceptive users in Niger and 570 in the Gambia to assess the extent of and reasons for contraceptive discontinuation within the first eight months of acceptance. Approximately 30% of new family planning clients discontinued contraceptive use within that time. Side effects, travel by either partner, spousal disapproval, and desired pregnancy were the principal reasons given for stopping use, although in some cases clients may have simply offered what they felt was an acceptable reason. Discontinuation was higher among clients who felt they did not receive adequate counseling than it was among those who felt they had."
Correspondence: N. Cotten, Family Health International, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10295 Dixon-Mueller, Ruth; Germain, Adrienne. Stalking the elusive "unmet need" for family planning. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 23, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1992. 330-5 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The authors define the concept of unmet family planning need in order to better adapt that concept to the family planning environment in developing countries. Consideration is given to unmet needs among unmarried women and among contraceptive users. Ways in which an inappropriate choice of definition can bias research results are also discussed.
Correspondence: R. Dixon-Mueller, International Women's Health Coalition, 24 East 21st Street, New York, NY 10010. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10296 Donaldson, Peter J.; Cernada, George P. Developing more effective family planning, family health and family welfare programmes: opportunities for government-NGO collaboration. Population Research Leads, No. 42, 1992. 10 pp. U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]: Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
The role that nongovernmental organizations can play in providing family planning services in Asia and Oceania is explored. The authors note that only government could provide the level of resources necessary to develop effective programs in the many large countries of the region. However, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) play an important part in testing innovative approaches to family planning, providing alternative methods of contraceptive delivery, and helping to improve quality, coverage, and equality of access to services.
Correspondence: U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, Population Information Section, United Nations Building, Rajdamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10297 Echeverry, Gonzalo. Against wind and tide: 25 years of family planning in Colombia. [Contra viento y marea: 25 anos de planificacion familiar en Colombia.] Sep 1991. xviii, 252 pp. Asociacion Colombiana para el Estudio de la Poblacion [ACEP]: Santa Fe de Bogota, Colombia; Asociacion Pro-Bienestar de la Familia Colombiana [PROFAMILIA]: Bogota, Colombia. In Spa.
The author reviews the history of organized family planning efforts in Latin America since 1960, with a focus on Colombia.
Correspondence: Asociacion Colombiana para el Estudio de la Poblacion, Carrera 23, Numero 39, Santa Fe de Bogota, D.C., Colombia. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

59:10298 Gaal, Gergely. Population policy and family planning issues in China. [A nepessegpolitika es a csaladtervezes kerdesei Kinaban.] Demografia, Vol. 35, No. 2, 1992. 267-76 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun.
Population policy and family planning issues in China are reviewed. Data are from official sources and concern female education, the crude birth rate, death rate, and rate of natural increase from 1949-1989.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10299 Goodwin, Mary M. 1987 Guatemala Demographic and Health Survey: further analysis of data. A. Women 15-44 years of age. Pub. Order No. 0009170991. Oct 1991. 41, [53] pp. U.S. Centers for Disease Control [CDC], National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Reproductive Health: Atlanta, Georgia. In Eng.
This "secondary analysis of the 1987 Guatemala Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) provides a more detailed look at family planning and other health related data than was included in the published DHS report for Guatemala (1989)....These include: 1) current knowledge, use and source of contraceptive methods; 2) preventive health care and behavioral risk factors; 3) planning status of last pregnancy, premarital conceptions, and desire for more children; 4) surgical contraception; 5) characteristics of women in need of family planning services; and 6) history of spontaneous and induced abortion."
Correspondence: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Reproductive Health, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

59:10300 Greenhalgh, Susan. Negotiating birth control in village China. Population Council Research Division Working Paper, No. 38, 1992. 46 pp. Population Council, Research Division: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This essay is part of a larger project on the political economy of reproduction in three villages in the northwestern province of Shaanxi [China] during the decades 1947-87....The present analysis focuses on the one-child policy period, which began in 1979." The author "shows how, through resistance to some of [the policy's] harshest provisions, peasant women, acting on their own and as members of patriarchal families, have shaped the development of village fertility policy and, in turn, its effects on their bodies, reproductive outcomes, and options for living."
Correspondence: Population Council, Research Division, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10301 Hammerslough, Charles R.; Gard, Samuel N. Estimating contraceptive continuation from program acceptor data. Population Studies Center Research Report, No. 92-233, Jan 1992. 19 pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This paper presents a new method to estimate contraceptive continuation rates from clinical acceptor data. It requires only counts of new and continuing acceptors for each year of the clinic's existence....[The authors use] the new technique to evaluate contraceptive continuation in clinical projects run by Family Planning International Assistance and Family Planning Association of Kenya clinics."
Correspondence: University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1070. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10302 Hawkins, Kirstan. Male participation in family planning: a review of programme approaches in Africa. Sep 1992. 93 pp. International Planned Parenthood Federation [IPPF]: London, England. In Eng.
This is a collection of 14 papers presented by various authors at a workshop on male participation in family planning in Africa, which was held on November 25-28, 1991, in Banjul, Gambia. Topics covered include attitudes toward contraception and AIDS, an overview of male involvement in family planning, and needs assessment techniques. Field reports from nine countries are included.
Correspondence: International Planned Parenthood Federation, Regent's College, Inner Circle, Regent's Park, London NW1 4NS, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10303 Indonesia. Central Bureau of Statistics (Jakarta, Indonesia); Indonesia. National Family Planning Coordinating Board (Jakarta, Indonesia); Indonesia. Ministry of Health (Jakarta, Indonesia); Macro International. Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS] (Columbia, Maryland). Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey, 1991. Oct 1992. xxiv, 231 pp. Jakarta, Indonesia. In Eng.
This report summarizes findings of the 1991 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey. The survey covered a nationally representative sample of some 27,000 households and interviewed 7,051 rural and 15,858 urban ever-married women aged 15-49. The volume includes chapters on background characteristics of households and respondents, fertility, knowledge and ever-use of family planning, current use of family planning, fertility preferences, nonuse and intention to use family planning, other proximate determinants of fertility, infant and child mortality, maternal and child health, and infant feeding. The results indicate that fertility in Indonesia continues to decline, and that since 1985 the total fertility rate has declined by one. Furthermore, fertility has declined to near-replacement level in a few provinces, including Jakarta, East Java, Yogyakarta, and Bali. Some 56 percent of urban and 47 percent of rural women are currently using contraception.
Correspondence: Central Bureau of Statistics, Jl. Dr. Sutomo 8, Jakarta 10710, Indonesia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10304 Islam, M. Mazharul. Contraceptive use and its fertility impact in Bangladesh. Journal of Family Welfare, Vol. 37, No. 2, Jun 1991. 3-13 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
"This paper makes an attempt to examine contraceptive prevalence levels and trends and their fertility impact [in Bangladesh]." Data are from the 1985 nationwide Contraceptive Prevalence Survey, and are compared with results from 1969, 1975, 1979, 1981, and 1983 fertility surveys.
Correspondence: M. M. Islam, University of Dhaka, Department of Statistics, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

59:10305 Islam, M. Nurul; Mallick, S. A.; Billah, M. M. Contraceptive behaviour in the areas served by family welfare assistants and midwives in rural Bangladesh: a comparative analysis. Rural Demography, Vol. 16, No. 1-2, 1989. 19-29 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"The study is an attempt to investigate contraceptive behaviour in the areas served independently by FWAs [family welfare assistants] and Dais [midwives] in...selected areas of Bangladesh....[Findings] indicated that almost every woman (98.5 percent in FWA area and 99.3 percent in dai area) has a basic awareness of at least one method of contraception....The results...suggest that a basic awareness has developed...in both the areas....A significant increase in the response on the knowledge of specific contraceptive methods was observed after prompting had been adopted while interviewing in both the areas. This clearly reveals the influences of prompting...on measures of knowledge among the target population." Data are from surveys conducted in 1985.
Correspondence: M. N. Islam, University of Dhaka, Department of Statistics, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10306 Jain, Anrudh; Visaria, Leela; Visaria, Pravin; Shah, Vimal P. Impact of family planning program inputs on use of contraceptives in Gujarat State, India. Gujarat Institute of Development Research Working Paper, No. 43, Jun 1992. iv, 24 pp. Gujarat Institute of Development Research: Ahmedabad, India. In Eng.
"This paper reports on our efforts to understand the factors responsible for the observed differences in contraceptive practice among two comparable districts in Gujarat state [India]. The districts had markedly different effective couple protection rates...but were similar in terms of some of the macro-level demand factors such as urbanization and tribal population. Information was collected through a primary survey on program and non-program factors to ascertain the extent to which these districts are different in terms of demographic, social and economic conditions, and the extent to which these differences could explain the observed differences in contraceptive use." The survey was conducted in 1987.
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1992 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: Gujarat Institute of Development Research, Gota, Ahmedabad 382 481, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10307 Jain, Anrudh; Bruce, Judith; Mensch, Barbara. Setting standards of quality in family planning programs. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 23, No. 6, Pt. 1, Nov-Dec 1992. 392-5 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The authors discuss the feasibility of setting global standards for family planning programs. "We argue here that decisions regarding the intended and achievable levels of care--as with issues regarding access or coverage--must be defined within the context of an individual program by persons responsible for that program." Some suggestions for program planners are included.
Correspondence: A. Jain, Population Council, Programs Division, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10308 Larson, Ann; Mitra, S. N. Family planning in Bangladesh: an unlikely success story. International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 4, Dec 1992. 123-9, 144 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The results of two independent national surveys conducted in 1989 show that Bangladesh has achieved a moderate level of contraceptive use....The method mix, historically characterized by use of a wide range of methods, is increasingly dominated by oral contraceptives, which accounted for 29% of use in 1989. Reflecting the increase in contraceptive prevalence, the total fertility rate declined from seven lifetime births during the mid-1970s to about five lifetime births by the end of the 1980s. Mean desired family size in 1989, however, was three children, indicating that there may still be considerable unmet need for family planning services."
Correspondence: A. Larson, University of Queensland, Tropical Health Program, Herston, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10309 Mbizvo, M. T.; Adamchak, D. J. Male fertility regulation: a study on acceptance among men in Zimbabwe. Central African Journal of Medicine, Vol. 38, No. 2, Feb 1992. 52-7 pp. Harare, Zimbabwe. In Eng.
Male fertility regulation rates and practices are examined for Zimbabwe. "Acceptance of male sterilisation (vasectomy), condom use and male contraceptive pill were investigated in a representative sample of 711 Zimbabwean men....Results indicate that more education and promotional information on methods available to men should be made available."
Correspondence: M. T. Mbizvo, University of Zimbabwe Medical School, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Box A178 Avondale, Harare, Zimbabwe. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10310 Mukherjee, Suneeta. Family welfare programmes in India with special reference to NGO's collaboration. Health and Population: Perspectives and Issues, Vol. 14, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1991. 109-17 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng. with sum. in Hin.
The author suggests the formation of a government agency in India to coordinate regional volunteer family health and welfare programs. Agency objectives and activities are outlined.
Correspondence: S. Mukherjee, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Nirman Bhavan, New Delhi 110 001, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10311 Oheneba-Sakyi, Yaw. Determinants of current contraceptive use among Ghanaian women at the highest risk of pregnancy. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 24, No. 4, Oct 1992. 463-75 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"This study uses data from the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS) of 1988 to examine factors determining the continued low levels of contraceptive use in Ghana. The women currently using efficient contraception are those who have sexual intercourse regularly, who discuss family planning with their partner, whose husbands approve of the use of family planning, and who live in the northern sector of the country. The finding that husband's approval is an important determinant of efficient contraceptive use has significant policy implications for Ghana and other African countries, to motivate both husbands and wives to share fertility control responsibilities."
Correspondence: Y. Oheneba-Sakyi, State University of New York, Potsdam College, Department of Sociology, Potsdam, NY 13676. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10312 Omran, Abdel R. Family planning in the legacy of Islam. ISBN 0-415-05541-5. LC 92-11914. 1992. xxi, 284 pp. Routledge: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
"The work surveys Islamic views on family life and family planning through fourteen centuries up to the present day, clarifying and updating teachings and opinions while dispelling misunderstandings....Many leading scholars and theologians were consulted during the preparation of the text. The draft manuscript underwent the scrutiny of a committee of scholars from Muslim countries, which strongly endorsed the basic work, made several constructive suggestions and recommended unanimously that the final manuscript be translated into the key languages spoken by Muslim peoples....In addition, quotations from the Qur' an [Koran] and the traditions of the Prophet were reviewed and authenticated by a committee of theologians from Al-Azhar University in Cairo." The work was prepared for the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
Correspondence: Routledge, 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10313 Pratinidhi, A. K.; Natu, Maya; Joshi, J. K. Perimarital counselling on family planning. Health and Population: Perspectives and Issues, Vol. 14, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1991. 118-24 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng. with sum. in Hin.
Results from a survey on contraceptive acceptance conducted among 269 adolescent couples married in Maharashtra, India, during 1989-1990 are discussed. Data are included on marriage age, educational status, knowledge of family planning, and family size attitudes. Recommendations are made for targeting adolescent couples with family planning counseling and education efforts.
Correspondence: A. K. Pratinidhi, B. J. Medical College, Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Pune 1, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10314 Raina, B. L.