Volume 59 - Number 1 - Spring 1993

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

59:10079 Beach, D. N. Zimbabwean demography: early colonial data. Zambezia, Vol. 17, No. 1, 1990. 31-83 pp. Harare, Zimbabwe. In Eng.
The author presents available demographic data for the 32 districts that make up modern Zimbabwe for the period 1900-1922. The data consist of population figures supplied by the Southern Rhodesian Native Commissioners for the rural population. The quality of these data is then discussed.
Correspondence: D. N. Beach, University of Zimbabwe, Department of History, P.O. Box MP 167, Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

59:10080 Boomgaard, P.; Gooszen, A. J. Changing economy in Indonesia: a selection of statistical source material from the early 19th century up to 1940. Volume 11: population trends 1795-1942. ISBN 90-6832-652-X. 1991. 256 pp. Royal Tropical Institute: Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
This is one in a series of publications presenting historical data on Indonesia from Dutch sources. "The purpose of this publication is to provide the user with the most reliable figures available on the population of Indonesia (Netherlands Indies) between the years 1795 and 1942. The introductory text...provides general background information on the statistics, while the commentary on the tables is of a more technical nature (e.g., explanation of statistical adjustments, estimates, interpolations and extrapolations)." A brief introduction to the history of population growth in Indonesia is also included.
Correspondence: Royal Tropical Institute, 63 Mauritskade, 1092 AD Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10081 Kapolnai, Ivan. Population of Mezokovesd and its surroundings, 1746-1990. [Mezokovesd varos es kornyeke nepessege, 1746-1990.] Statisztikai Szemle, Vol. 70, No. 12, Dec 1992. 1,053-67 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author describes demographic changes in the town of Mezokovesd, Hungary, during the period 1746-1990. Consideration is given to changes in population size, births and deaths, and religious affiliations of residents.
Correspondence: I. Kapolnai, Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal, Keleti Karoly utca 5-7, Budapest II, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10082 Rallu, Jean-L. From decline to recovery: the Marquesan population 1886-1945. Health Transition Review, Vol. 2, No. 2, Oct 1992. 177-94 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"Population decline in the South Pacific is poorly documented. Civil-registration data from the Marquesas (French Polynesia) from 1882 to 1945 are here used to calculate most of the usual demographic indices. Deterioration of natural equilibria following the arrival of Europeans in the islands and introduction of new diseases in a non-immune population caused a steady decline in the population. Beside catastrophic epidemics such as smallpox, mortality was high mainly because of introduced respiratory diseases. The very high mortality, ranging from 45 per 1,000 to 70 per 1,000 at the end of the nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth century, combined with low fertility due to the high proportion of sterile women (infected by venereal diseases), caused an annual decline of two to three per cent up to 1924."
Correspondence: J. L. Rallu, University of the South Pacific, School of Social and Economic Development, P.O. Box 1168, Suva, Fiji. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

59:10083 Ales, Milan. Population developments in Czechoslovakia in 1991. [Populacni vyvoj v CSFR v roce 1991.] Demografie, Vol. 34, No. 4, 1992. 273-83 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author reviews political and economic trends in Czechoslovakia since late 1989 and their effects on population characteristics, with a focus on the effect of changes in migration policy. A sharp decline in fertility, continued high levels of legal induced abortion due to unmet contraceptive need, and one of the shortest life expectancies in Europe are all noted. Some comparisons are made between the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Correspondence: M. Ales, Federalni Statisticky Urad, Sokolovska 142, 18613 Prague 8, Czech Republic. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10084 Belgium. Institut National de Statistique (Brussels, Belgium). Population on January 1, 1992. [Population au 1 janvier 1992.] Statistiques Demographiques, No. 3, 1992. 99-213 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
Population estimates are presented for Belgium for 1992. The estimates are provided separately by region, province, and arrondissement; by age, sex, and marital status; and for Belgians and foreigners.
For a previous citation concerning 1991, see 58:20080.
Correspondence: Institut National de Statistique, Rue de Louvain 44, Centre Albert, 8e etage, Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10085 Canada. Statistics Canada (Ottawa, Canada). Postcensal estimates of families, Canada, provinces and territories, June 1, 1992. [Estimations postcensitaires des familles, Canada, provinces et territoires, 1er juin 1992.] Pub. Order No. 91-204. Dec 1992. 31 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
Estimates of various family characteristics are presented for Canada, using 1986 census data for the whole country and for its provinces and territories.
Correspondence: Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10086 Canada. Statistics Canada. Demography Division. Population Estimates Section (Ottawa, Canada). Postcensal annual estimates of population by marital status, age, sex and components of growth for Canada, provinces and territories, June 1, 1992. [Estimations annuelles postcensitaires de la population suivant l'etat matrimonial, l'age, le sexe et composantes de l'accroissement, Canada, provinces et territoires au 1er juin 1992.] Vol. 10, Pub. Order No. 91-210. Nov 1992. 100 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
Population estimates for Canada and its provinces and territories as of June 1, 1992, are presented by sex, age, and marital status. Selected data are included for the periods 1955-1992 and 1981-1986. Data are primarily from the 1986 census.
For the report concerning 1988, see 55:10095.
Correspondence: Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Population Estimates Section, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10087 de Guibert-Lantoine, Catherine; Monnier, Alain. The current demographic situation: Europe and developed countries overseas. [La conjoncture demographique: l'Europe et les pays developpes d'outre-mer.] Population, Vol. 47, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1992. 1,017-36 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Population characteristics of Europe and other developed countries that conducted censuses in 1990 or 1991 are enumerated. Data are given in tabular format and concern population totals, fertility, mortality, infant mortality, marriage and divorce, induced abortion, and life expectancy by sex. Some retrospective data are also included for comparative purposes.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10088 Deshpande, Sudha. Census of India 1991: Maharashtra. Journal of Family Welfare, Vol. 37, No. 3, Sep 1991. 74-8 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
"Paper I from the Directorate of Census Operations, Maharashtra [India], provides [1991] data on the size, growth, density, sex ratio and literacy of the population of Maharashtra state, at the district level. The present paper is restricted to an analysis of these characteristics from the above-mentioned document which clearly reveal that Maharashtra, though ahead of the Hindi-speaking belt, trails miles behind Kerala in its demographic performance."
Correspondence: S. Deshpande, University of Bombay, Department of Economics, Bombay 400 098, India. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

59:10089 Heer, David M.; Herman, Pini. Estimating the population of Los Angeles County census tracts by ethnicity. In: American Statistical Association, 1990 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1990]. 83-8 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
The authors derive "postcensal estimates of the population of Los Angeles County [California] by census tract and within each census tract by detailed ethnicity." A variation of the censal ratio method is used, which "consists in using as symptomatic indicators the expected values from a linear regression equation relating the number of births (or deaths) in each year from 1980 through 1986 to time as the independent variable." Results are compared with U.S. Bureau of the Census figures.
Correspondence: D. M. Heer, University of Southern California, Population Research Laboratory, 3716 South Hope Street, Los Angeles, CA 90007-4377. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10090 Hin, Monika. First results of the microcensus of April 1991. [Erste Ergebnisse des Mikrozensus April 1991.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 9, Sep 1992. 627-35 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Selected results from the April 1991 microcensus of Germany are presented. This was the first microcensus to include East Germany. The emphasis of the present article is on labor force participation, employment, unemployment, and economic status. Comparisons are made between eastern and western areas of the country.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

59:10091 King, Russell. Italy reaches zero population growth. Geography, Vol. 78, Pt. 1, No. 338, Jan 1993. 63-9 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
Some preliminary results from the 1991 Italian census are presented and discussed. They show that "Italy has arrived at zero population growth, its birth rate is the lowest in the world, it has a rapidly ageing population, and the regional demographic divisions between North and South are disappearing. Moreover it is no longer a country of emigration but one of mass immigration. In terms of internal migration, Italians are rejecting life in the big cities in favour of small- and medium-sized towns."
Correspondence: R. King, Trinity College, Dublin 2, Ireland. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

59:10092 Luxembourg. Service Central de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [STATEC] (Luxembourg). Population statistics. [Statistiques de population.] Bulletin du STATEC, Vol. 39, No. 5, 1992. 150-63 pp. Luxembourg. In Fre.
Population trends in Luxembourg in 1991 are first reviewed, with separate consideration given to nuptiality and divorce, fertility, mortality, and migration. Next, revised estimates of international migration and of the resident population are presented for the period 1987-1991. Finally, three alternative estimates of the population for 1991 are provided.
Correspondence: Service Central de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Boite Postale 304, 19-21 Boulevard Royal, L-2013 Luxembourg. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10093 Parasuraman, Sulabha; Roy, T. K. Some observations on the 1991 census population of India. Journal of Family Welfare, Vol. 37, No. 3, Sep 1991. 62-8 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
"An attempt has been made in this paper to appraise the preliminary results of the 1991 census [of India] in the perspective of the 1981 census and the estimates of vital rates from the Sample Registration System. Five alternate sets of population projections for India for the period 1981-91 have been attempted...."
Correspondence: S. Parasuraman, International Institute for Population Sciences, Department of Population Policies and Programmes, Deonar, Bombay 400 088, India. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

59:10094 Atoh, Makoto; Kaneko, Takeharu; Takahashi, Shigesato; Kaneko, Ryuichi; Ohba, Tamotsu; Mita, Fusami. Population projections for Japan: 1991-2025. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 48, No. 3, Oct 1992. 16-45 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population projections for Japan to 2025 are presented and discussed. Consideration is given to life expectancy by age and sex, and to mortality rates. Some discussion of the methodology used in the analysis is offered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10095 Colliez, Jean-Paul. At current rates of growth, 100,000 more people in Reunion in only nine years. [Au rythme de croissance actuel 100,000 Reunionnais de plus dans neuf ans.] Economie de la Reunion, No. 57, Jan-Feb 1992. 2-9 pp. Ste.-Clothilde, Reunion. In Fre.
Results from the 1990 census are used to project probable rates of population growth in Reunion to the year 2000.
Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

59:10096 de Beer, J. Population forecasts, 1992. [Bevolkingsprognose 1992.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 40, No. 12, Dec 1992. 18-27 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The author summarizes the 1992 update of the official population projection to the year 2030 for the Netherlands and compares it with the forecast made in 1991. A rise in life expectancy is anticipated. "The odds are two to one that population size in 2030 will be between 16.4 million and 18.2 million."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10097 de Beer, J.; Meyer, P. The effects of uncertainty about future fertility, mortality, and migration on the development of the population. [Effect van onzekerheid over toekomstige geboorte, sterfte en migratie op bevolkingsontwikkeling.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 40, No. 10, Oct 1992. 21-7 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The authors compare the effects of uncertainty about future fertility, mortality, and migration trends on the accuracy of predictions about the size and age structure of a population. Data for the Netherlands are used to illustrate.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10098 de Jong, A. H. On the average females are living alone five years longer than males. Results of a life-table approach to household forecasts. [Vrouwen zijn gemiddeld vijf jaar langer alleenstaand dan mannen. Uitkomsten van een overlevingstafelbenadering van de huishoudensprognose.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 40, No. 10, Oct 1992. 12-20 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Using National Household Forecasts data, the author projects the population of the Netherlands by age, sex, position in the household, and marital status for the period 1992-2009. The focus is on time spent living alone by sex.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10099 Drzewieniecka, Krystyna; Dzienio, Kazimierz. Predicted changes, in the years 1990-2010, in the state and structure of productive age population in Poland and in selected European countries and their consequences for external migrations. Polish Population Review, No. 2, 1992. 148-63 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
Trends in the number and structure of working-age populations in Europe and Poland are projected for the period 1990-2010. Among their predictions, the authors anticipate that "in Western Europe...the working age population will be reduced by...2%. In both Southern and Northern Europe the working age population will grow...by 1.3% and 3.6% [respectively]. On the other hand, in Eastern Europe the population concerned will grow substantially in those years: this growth is estimated [at]...9.1%." A 14.7 percent increase is predicted for Poland.
Correspondence: K. Drzewieniecka, Government Population Commission, Plac Trzech Krzyzy 5, 00-507 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10100 Grunewald, Werner. Methods for projecting private households. [Projektionsverfahren privater Haushalte nach Haushaltsgruppen.] Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv, Vol. 76, No. 3, 1992. 208-25 pp. Gottingen, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"Although there exists a reasonable number of methods for projecting the number of private households, only a few of them are used in practice. The reason for this discrepancy is...analysed. All important methods which had been developed until now will be presented, focusing on their assumptions and the data needed."
Correspondence: W. Grunewald, Universitat Bamberg, Lehrstuhl fur Statistik, Feldkirchenstrassee 21, 8600 Bamberg, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

59:10101 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). Population projections for Japan: 1991-2090. Institute of Population Problems Research Series, No. 274, Sep 30, 1992. ii, 140 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population projections are presented for Japan for five-year intervals from 1990 to 2025. Data are given by age and sex.
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10102 McNicoll, Geoffrey. The United Nations' long-range population projections. Population and Development Review, Vol. 18, No. 2, Jun 1992. 333-40, 394, 396 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Population projections to 2150 have been prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations, based on the Division's 1990 assessment of world population. These projections are described and compared to earlier UN series and analogous projections published by the World Bank. In the medium variant, widely used as a 'best guess' of the demographic future, world population reaches 10 billion by 2050 but adds only another 1.5 billion over the 100 years following. Low and high variant totals, defined by long-run fertility levels of 1.7 and 2.5 lifetime births per woman, are 8 and 12.5 billion in 2050 and 4 and 28 billion in 2150."
Correspondence: G. McNicoll, Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Demography Program, GPO Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10103 Otero, Jose M.; Martin, Guillermina; Trujillo, Francisco; Fernandez, Antonio. Population, labour force and unemployment in Andalusia: prospects for 1993. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 7, No. 4, Mar 1992. 483-92 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper is concerned with forecasting population, employment, labour force and unemployment in Andalusia [Spain] to 1993. For this purpose, a block-recursive demoeconomic model is presented. The demographic submodel is based on the component-cohort method of forecasting population by age and sex. The economic submodel uses econometric and time series analysis to forecast employment both in the medium and short-term. In the labour market part, the labour force is forecasted taking into account the encouraged-discouraged worker effects of changes in the demand for labour."
Correspondence: J. M. Otero, Universidad de Malaga, Facultad de Ciencias Economicas, El Ejido s/n, 29013 Malaga, Spain. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

59:10104 Perreault, J.; Declos, M.; Costa, R.; Larrivee, D.; Loh, S. Population projections for Canada, provinces and territories, 1989-2011. [Projections demographiques pour le Canada, les provinces et les territoires, 1989-2011.] Pub. Order No. 91-520. ISBN 0-660-54850-X. Mar 1990. xii, 192 pp. Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Population Projections Section: Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
Population projections for Canada, its provinces, and its territories are presented up to the year 2011. The projections are provided for each year by age and sex. The estimates are based on data from the 1986 census.
Correspondence: Statistics Canada, Publication Sales, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10105 Pollard, Kelvin. Faster growth, more diversity in U.S. projections. Population Today, Vol. 21, No. 2, Feb 1993. 3, 10 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author reviews the U.S. Bureau of the Census report entitled "Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1992 to 2050". "This report...is the first to present separate projections for Asian Americans and Native Americans--as well as for whites and blacks. It is also the first to incorporate the impact of AIDS in the middle series. And...it is the first to separate all racial groups into their Hispanic and non-Hispanic components, so that racial/ethnic breakdowns add to 100 percent."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10106 Saitsu, Yoshiaki. Long-range world population projections: two centuries of population growth, 1950-2150, prepared by the United Nations in 1992. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 48, No. 2, Jul 1992. 40-53 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Long-range global population projections are presented in tabular and graph formats for the period 1950-2150. Data are from official U.N. publications.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10107 Zeng, Yi; Vaupel, J. Some problems of future demographic processes in China. Social Sciences in China, Vol. 13, No. 1, Jan 1992. 43-53 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
"In this paper, which is based on a projection model of rural-urban population dynamics established by the authors, we make use of the investigative data of the one percent national population sample of 1987 and analog calculations on almost 200 demographic parameters to clarify the problematic relations between some key issues in China's future demographic processes. We advance a number of suggestions for the reference of policy-makers and planners."
Location: Princeton University Library (Gest).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

59:10108 Natarajan, K. S. The provisional results of 1991 census: implications of the population growth for future size of population. Demography India, Vol. 20, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1991. 29-33 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
Selected results from the 1991 census of India are discussed, with a focus on changes in population growth rates for states and regions. It is noted that "the population of India during the decade 1981-91 has increased by 23.50 per cent....The average annual growth rate (exponential) works out to be 2.11 per cent during the decade 1981-91 as against 2.20 per cent and 2.22 per cent respectively during 1961-71 and 1971-81. This is the first decade in this century when the growth rate has declined...."
Correspondence: K. S. Natarajan, Office of the Registrar General (Demography), Sewa Bhawan, R. K. Puram, New Delhi 110 066, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10109 Pathak, K. B.; Ram, F. Dynamics of population change in India: lessons from the 1991 census. Journal of Family Welfare, Vol. 37, No. 3, Sep 1991. 52-61 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
The authors review results from the 1991 census of India and compare them to results from the previous decade. Consideration is given to geographic variation in population growth, natural increase, sex ratio, survival rates by sex, and migration.
Correspondence: K. B. Pathak, International Institute for Population Sciences, Department of Fertility Studies, Deonar, Bombay 400 088, India. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

59:10110 Pathak, K. B.; Ram, F. Pattern of population growth and redistribution in India. Demography India, Vol. 20, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1991. 7-14 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper examines the pattern of population growth and its redistribution in India with greater emphasis on Kerala and 'BIMARU' [Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh] states. It is felt that transition in the growth rate at the national level may be determined in future by the BIMARU states. While Kerala took nearly three decades to come out of the 'Two Per Cent Growth Rate Syndrome' in spite of [a] very favourable social environment,...it may be very difficult for the BIMARU states and, hence, for India to come out of the above two per cent growth rate in less than three decades....It seems that the BIMARU states may continue to grow above two per cent for another two or three decades unless family planning [programs], along with supporting educational...and health [programs] become more responsive to local needs and become more acceptable to the people." Data concern the period 1951-1991, with a focus on the past 20 years.
Correspondence: K. B. Pathak, International Institute for Population Sciences, Deonar, Bombay 400 088, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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