Volume 58 - Number 4 - Winter 1992

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

58:40067 Arkadiev, Dimitar. Natural increase of the Bulgarian population in southern Russia in the mid-nineteenth century. [Estestven prirast na Balgarskoto naselenie v yuzhna Rusiya okolo sredata na XIX vek.] Naselenie, No. 4, 1992. 25-30 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
"A study of the data on [the] natural population growth of the Bulgarian colony in Southern Russia in the mid-nineteenth century is undertaken." Projections are also made from the mid-nineteenth century to the present.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40068 Henige, David. Native American population at contact: discursive strategies and standards of proof in the debate. Latin American Population History Bulletin, No. 22, Fall 1992. 2-23 pp. Minneapolis, Minnesota. In Eng.
The author reviews the literature on the estimation of population size in the Americas at the time of European contact in the late fifteenth century.
Correspondence: D. Henige, University of Wisconsin, 728 State Street, Madison, WI 53706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40069 Kaczanowski, Krzysztof; Kurnatowski, Stanislaw; Malinowski, Andrzej; Piontek, Janusz. Population of the Polish territories between the thirteenth century B.C. and the fourth century A.D.: sources and an attempt to evaluate them. [Zaludnienie ziem Polskich miedzy XIII w. p.n.e. a IV w. n.e.--materialy zrodlowe, proba oceny.] Monografie i Opracowania, 1992. 250 pp. Szkola Glowna Handlowa, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
This monograph contains a general study on population developments in the Polish territories from the thirteenth century B.C. to the fourth century A.D., including three paleodemographic studies of burial sites.
Correspondence: Szkola Glowna Handlowa, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40070 Srivastava, Mohan L. Demographic estimates for Malawi using data from 1926 census. Genus, Vol. 47, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1991. 183-202 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"The 1926 Population Census of Malawi collected data on fertility and child mortality in...a sample of more than 2,100 women from various districts in the country....[An analysis of these data] suggests that the fertility in Malawi has remained unchanged and at a high level of more than 7 children per woman of completed fertility for almost three-quarters of the 20th century. The mortality estimates reveal that, at least during the first half of the 20th century, the infant mortality rate was at about 240 per 1,000 live births. Of the total births, about 38 per cent died by the age of 5 years and about 45 per cent died by the age of 10 years. The expectation of life at birth for males and females [was] estimated at 30.4 and 33.5 years respectively. These estimates have been validated and have been found consistent internally as well as with those relating to later dates. The distribution of males and females in 5 year age groups in 1926 has also been estimated."
Correspondence: M. L. Srivastava, University of Malawi, Demographic Unit, Zomba, Malawi. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

58:40071 Chandrasekhar, S. A note on the provisional results of India's 1991 census. Population Review, Vol. 36, No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1992. 11-4 pp. La Jolla, California. In Eng.
The author presents basic provisional results from the 1991 fifth decennial census of India. Information is included on total population, population growth during the period 1981-1991, population density, sex ratio, and literacy.
Correspondence: S. Chandrasekhar, P.O. Box 8093, La Jolla, CA 92038. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40072 Japan. Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Population estimates as of October 1, 1991. Population Estimates Series, No. 63, 1992. 83 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Population estimates are presented for Japan for 1991 by single years of age and by sex, and separately for Japanese and foreigners. Selected data are also provided by prefecture, including population estimates, births and deaths, migration, and natural increase.
Correspondence: Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40073 Miettinen, Anneli. Population data on Finland 1900-1991. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 30, 1992. 110-20 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
Population data for Finland are presented in tabular format for the period 1900-1991. Statistics are included on resident population, age structure, general fertility, abortions, marriage and divorce, family size, life expectancy, mortality, migration, and economic status.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40074 Porter, Gina. The Nigerian census surprise. Geography, Vol. 77, Pt. 4, No. 337, Oct 1992. 371-4 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
Results from the 1991 census of Nigeria are summarized, and their political implications are considered. Total populations are provided by state. Consideration is given to questions of data quality.
Correspondence: G. Porter, University of Durham, Department of Geography, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

58:40075 Prevost, Ronald C. Evaluating the utility of population estimates as the basis for distributing federal revenues. Pub. Order No. DA9220946. 1991. 246 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This study, which concerns the United States, was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Bowling Green State University.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1364. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 53(3).

58:40076 Roe, Linda K.; Carlson, John F.; Swanson, David A. A variation of the Housing Unit Method for estimating the population of small, rural areas: a case study of the local expert procedure. Applied Demography, Vol. 7, No. 2, Summer 1992. 3-5 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors describe a variation on the Housing Unit Method (HUM) that "combines two methods....These are: (1) random sampling; and (2) 'local expert' interviews....These methods, combined with the HUM may lead to a means of obtaining the population size and, eventually, composition data required to meet the information needs of impact assessment projects and other activities affecting small, rural areas." The methods are tested using data for Nye County, Nevada, a proposed site for a geologic nuclear waste repository.
This is a condensed version of a paper originally presented at the 1992 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: L. K. Roe, Science Applications International Corporation, Las Vegas, NV. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40077 Schmitt, Robert C. Estimating Hawaii's de facto population. Applied Demography, Vol. 7, No. 2, Summer 1992. 1-3 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Methods for estimating de facto population figures for Hawaii are described and illustrated using official data for the period 1951-1990. Other applications for these methods are also discussed.
Correspondence: R. C. Schmitt, Hawaii State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, Honolulu, HI. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40078 Wegman, Myron E. Annual summary of vital statistics--1990. Pediatrics, Vol. 88, No. 6, Dec 1991. 1,081-92 pp. Elk Grove Village, Illinois. In Eng.
This is an annual review of trends in vital rates in the United States, based on official data from the U.S. NCHS Monthly Vital Statistics Report. International trends are also reviewed using data from U.N. sources. The author notes that "infant mortality declined more rapidly between 1989 and 1990 than in any year since 1977; the provisional 1990 rate, 9.1 per 1,000 live births was the lowest ever recorded....Births increased in number and rate; there were more women in the childbearing years and they had higher fertility rates. Marriages and divorces both increased slightly. Deaths increased but the death rate decreased; the estimated age-adjusted death rate was the lowest ever."
For a previous review for 1987, see 55:40074.
Correspondence: M. E. Wegman, University of Michigan, School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

58:40079 Bouvier, Leon F.; Weller, Bob. Florida in the 21st century: the challenge of population growth. LC 92-72750. 1992. xii, 203 pp. Center for Immigration Studies: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This study looks at past, present, and future population change in Florida. The authors pay particular attention to the impact of population growth, demographic aging, and increasing ethnic diversity on the state's social institutions and on its resources and infrastructure. Chapters are included on children, health and the elderly, education, the economy and the labor force, and the environment.
Correspondence: Center for Immigration Studies, 1815 H Street NW, Suite 1010, Washington, D.C. 20006. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40080 Dittmann, Pawel. Disaggregation in demographic forecasting. Studia Demograficzne, No. 3/105, 1991. 129-37 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
"The goal of our study is to find a method which allows [us] to disaggregate demographic forecasts...." These forecasts "can be worked out for the whole population under consideration, as well as for particular subpopulations, taking into account various criteria, for instance: sex, place of residence, profession, level of education, [and] source of maintenance."
Correspondence: P. Dittmann, Akademia Ekonomiczna we Wroclawiu, Komandorska 118/120, 53-345 Wroclaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40081 Edmonston, Barry; Lee, Sharon. Analyzing the impact of international migration on population growth: an application of the stationary population equivalent model for Singapore. In: American Statistical Association, 1989 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1989]. 196-201 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The [stationary population equivalent] model offers an alternative method to standard population projections for understanding the future Singaporean population under various demographic alternatives. This paper...[proposes] an explicit population model for addressing debate on the future implication of immigration and emigration on national social and economic structure. We first review the results for the total population of Singapore, then discuss separately the results for the Chinese, Indian, and Malay populations."
Correspondence: B. Edmonston, Urban Institute, Population Studies Center, 2100 M Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40082 Fullerton, Howard N. Evaluation of labor force projections to 1990. Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 115, No. 8, Aug 1992. 3-14 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This article examines the errors in the [U.S.] labor force projections to 1990 and their sources. It does this by examining projected levels of the labor force and the rates of labor force participation of specific age groups for men and women, and for whites and blacks and others." The results indicate that "the projections to 1990, although more accurate than those of the 1975, 1980, and 1985 labor force, were significantly affected by population projections."
Correspondence: H. N. Fullerton, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment Projections, Washington, D.C. 20212. Location: Princeton University Library (Docs).

58:40083 Golini, A.; De Simoni, A.; Heins, F. Three scenarios concerning possible population trends in the regions of Italy by 2038 (based on 1988). [Tre scenari per il possibile sviluppo della popolazione delle regioni italiane al 2038 (base 1988).] 1989. 421 pp. Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione [IRP]: Rome, Italy. In Ita.
Three alternative projections of the population of Italy by major and minor region are presented for the year 2038, based on official data for 1988. The three scenarios are based on different assumptions concerning developments in fertility. The projections are broken down by age and sex.
Correspondence: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione, Viale Beethoven 56, 00144 Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40084 Israel. Central Bureau of Statistics (Jerusalem, Israel). Projection of population in Israel up to 2005. Central Bureau of Statistics Special Series, No. 913, Jul 1992. 127, xxix pp. Jerusalem, Israel. In Eng; Heb.
Revised population projections are presented for Israel up to the year 2005, based on the permanent population of Israel at the end of 1990. Four alternative projections are made using various hypotheses concerning international migration and fertility. The projections are provided by sex and age group.
Correspondence: Central Bureau of Statistics, Hakirya, Romema, Jerusalem 91130, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

58:40085 Keilman, Nico; Kucera, Tomas. The impact of forecasting methodology on the accuracy of national population forecasts: evidence from the Netherlands and Czechoslovakia. Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 10, No. 4, Jul 1991. 371-98 pp. New York, New York/Chichester, England. In Eng.
"This study considers the accuracy of national population forecasts of the Netherlands and the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic....We look at the demographic components employed in each forecast, the procedure to extrapolate fertility and the level at which assumptions for each component are formulated. Errors in total population size, fertility, mortality and foreign migration, and age structure are considered. We discuss trends in errors and methodology since 1950 and compare the situations in the two countries. The findings suggest that methodology has only a very limited impact on the accuracy of national population forecasts."
Correspondence: N. Keilman, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

58:40086 Kotowska, Irena E. Application of the LIPRO model for projection of Poland's population by marital status and place of residence. Studia Demograficzne, No. 4/106, 1991. 3-26 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
The author uses the multidimensional projection model LIPRO to project Poland's population by marital status and place of residence. Data are from official sources. "First, [a] brief description of the marital status version of the LIPRO model is given. Next, the selected results of projections for the period 1985-2050 are discussed. Some of them are compared with the DIALOG projections prepared [by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria]."
Correspondence: I. E. Kotowska, Warsaw School of Economics, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40087 Lutz, Wolfgang; Prinz, Christopher. Long range population prospects of Finland in the European context. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 30, 1992. 68-80 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"The population of Finland is projected along eleven different scenarios assuming widely diverging alternative trends in fertility, mortality and migration up to the year 2100....The results show that no matter what scenario is chosen, the next 30 years will bring an enormous increase of the population over age 65. The proportion in working age will be relatively stable up to the year 2010 and then strongly decline under all conditions, which is a consequence of the Finnish baby boom of the late 1940s. Projected total population sizes in 2050 will range from 3.5 million in the fertility decline scenario to 6.6 million in the high immigration scenario."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Population Projects, A-2631 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40088 Pflaumer, Peter. On local population forecasting. In: American Statistical Association, 1989 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1989]. 192-5 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"In this paper a Monte Carlo simulation model for projecting the population of Dortmund, a German city, is presented. Fertility and migration rates vary as random variables with a specific (subjective) distribution....The results of the stochastic model are compared with results of the traditional approach that calculates a low and a high forecast variant."
Correspondence: P. Pflaumer, Universitat Konstanz, SFB 178, Postfach 5560, D-7750 Konstanz, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40089 Samuel, T. John. Visible minorities in Canada: a projection. Jun 1992. 53 pp. Canadian Advertising Foundation, Race Relations Advisory Council on Advertising: Toronto, Canada. In Eng.
Projections are made of Canada's minority populations up to the year 2001. The author concludes that the minority population will increase from 6.3 percent of the total in 1986 to 17.7 percent in 2001. The analysis examines the ethnic proportions of the minority population for Canada as a whole and its probable distribution by province and city.
Correspondence: Canadian Advertising Foundation, 350 Bloor Street East, Suite 402, Toronto, Ontario M4W 1H5, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40090 Sutton, Gordon F.; Danziger, George. Are accuracy and quality the same thing in projections of local area population? In: American Statistical Association, 1989 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1989]. 186-91 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This paper offers a method which promises to increase the acceptability of population projections as forecasts by drawing on ecological models of growth and by calling forth theories of age and family life cycle patterns in residential preferences. Sum results from the study of the differences in the shape of age distributions among communities are presented." The method is illustrated with data for Massachusetts from 1970 to 1980.
Correspondence: G. F. Sutton, University of Massachusetts, MISER, Amherst, MA 01003. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40091 Sweden. Statistiska Centralbyran (Stockholm, Sweden). The future population of Sweden: projection for the years 1991-2025. [Sveriges framtida befolkning: prognos for aren 1991-2025.] Demografiska Rapporter 1991, No. 1, ISBN 91-618-0506-8. Dec 1991. 106 pp. Stockholm, Sweden. In Swe. with sum. in Eng.
Population projections are presented for Sweden to the year 2025. Changes in the age distribution over time are examined.
Correspondence: Statistiska Centralbyran, Karlavagen 100, S102 50 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

58:40092 Avramov, Dragana. Population decline: from phenomenon to problem. [Opadanje stanovnistva: od populacionog fenomena do populacionog problema.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 28-29, No. 3-4/1-2, Jul-Dec/Jan-Jun 1990-1991. 227-43 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
"The author monitors the population 'climate' in Europe which is characterized by fear of the population growth slowdown in the first decades of the [twentieth] century and by concerns for social, economic and demographic implications of population decline in the last decades of this century."
Correspondence: D. Avramov, Univerziteta u Beogradu, Centar za Demografska Istrazivanja, Instituta Drustvenih Nauka, 11000 Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40093 Li, Nan. Calculation of actual population momentum. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 3, No. 3, 1991. 241-6 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author proposes a formula for the calculation of population momentum, defined as "the value of a population that suddenly becomes static at a certain time and at an age-specific rate; it is the ratio between the ultimate size and the current size of a population. Obviously, the greater the population momentum, the stronger the momentum for growth." The method is tested using 1982 data for China.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40094 Lu, Li. Population development in 50 years in Zouping County, Shandong Province. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 2, No. 3, 1990. 257-68 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Population trends in Zouping County, China, since 1935 are analyzed. Separate consideration is given to population density; birth, death, and natural growth; sex composition; educational and marital status; households; and occupations.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:40095 Potter, Robert B. Demographic change in a small island state: St. Vincent and the Grenadines, 1980-1991. Geography, Vol. 77, Pt. 4, No. 337, Oct 1992. 374-6 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
Preliminary estimates of the population of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines are presented based on the 1991 census, and population trends over the period 1980-1991 are analyzed.
Correspondence: R. B. Potter, University of London, Royal Holloway, Egham Hill, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

58:40096 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Population trends in the 1980's. Current Population Reports, Series P-23: Special Studies, No. 175, May 1992. vi, 63 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents the current results of analysis of the [U.S.] population estimates program since 1980. These data are consistent with the coverage attained in the 1980 census and include no 1990 census results....This report contains four chapters presenting the cumulative results of national estimates, State estimates, annual interstate migration, and substate estimates (counties, places, and metropolitan areas) produced during the decade. Each chapter is written by authors responsible for developing estimates at each level of geography."
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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