58:40067 Arkadiev,
Dimitar. Natural increase of the Bulgarian population in
southern Russia in the mid-nineteenth century. [Estestven prirast
na Balgarskoto naselenie v yuzhna Rusiya okolo sredata na XIX vek.]
Naselenie, No. 4, 1992. 25-30 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in
Eng; Rus.
"A study of the data on [the] natural population growth
of the Bulgarian colony in Southern Russia in the mid-nineteenth
century is undertaken." Projections are also made from the
mid-nineteenth century to the present.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
58:40068 Henige,
David. Native American population at contact: discursive
strategies and standards of proof in the debate. Latin American
Population History Bulletin, No. 22, Fall 1992. 2-23 pp. Minneapolis,
Minnesota. In Eng.
The author reviews the literature on the
estimation of population size in the Americas at the time of European
contact in the late fifteenth century.
Correspondence: D.
Henige, University of Wisconsin, 728 State Street, Madison, WI 53706.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40069
Kaczanowski, Krzysztof; Kurnatowski, Stanislaw; Malinowski,
Andrzej; Piontek, Janusz. Population of the Polish
territories between the thirteenth century B.C. and the fourth century
A.D.: sources and an attempt to evaluate them. [Zaludnienie ziem
Polskich miedzy XIII w. p.n.e. a IV w. n.e.--materialy zrodlowe, proba
oceny.] Monografie i Opracowania, 1992. 250 pp. Szkola Glowna Handlowa,
Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in
Eng; Rus.
This monograph contains a general study on population
developments in the Polish territories from the thirteenth century B.C.
to the fourth century A.D., including three paleodemographic studies of
burial sites.
Correspondence: Szkola Glowna Handlowa,
Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw,
Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40070 Srivastava,
Mohan L. Demographic estimates for Malawi using data from
1926 census. Genus, Vol. 47, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1991. 183-202 pp.
Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"The 1926 Population
Census of Malawi collected data on fertility and child mortality in...a
sample of more than 2,100 women from various districts in the
country....[An analysis of these data] suggests that the fertility in
Malawi has remained unchanged and at a high level of more than 7
children per woman of completed fertility for almost three-quarters of
the 20th century. The mortality estimates reveal that, at least during
the first half of the 20th century, the infant mortality rate was at
about 240 per 1,000 live births. Of the total births, about 38 per cent
died by the age of 5 years and about 45 per cent died by the age of 10
years. The expectation of life at birth for males and females [was]
estimated at 30.4 and 33.5 years respectively. These estimates have
been validated and have been found consistent internally as well as
with those relating to later dates. The distribution of males and
females in 5 year age groups in 1926 has also been
estimated."
Correspondence: M. L. Srivastava, University of
Malawi, Demographic Unit, Zomba, Malawi. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
58:40071
Chandrasekhar, S. A note on the provisional
results of India's 1991 census. Population Review, Vol. 36, No.
1-2, Jan-Dec 1992. 11-4 pp. La Jolla, California. In Eng.
The
author presents basic provisional results from the 1991 fifth decennial
census of India. Information is included on total population,
population growth during the period 1981-1991, population density, sex
ratio, and literacy.
Correspondence: S. Chandrasekhar, P.O.
Box 8093, La Jolla, CA 92038. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
58:40072 Japan.
Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Population estimates as
of October 1, 1991. Population Estimates Series, No. 63, 1992. 83
pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Population estimates
are presented for Japan for 1991 by single years of age and by sex, and
separately for Japanese and foreigners. Selected data are also
provided by prefecture, including population estimates, births and
deaths, migration, and natural increase.
Correspondence:
Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1
Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
58:40073 Miettinen,
Anneli. Population data on Finland 1900-1991.
Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 30, 1992. 110-20 pp.
Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
Population data for Finland are
presented in tabular format for the period 1900-1991. Statistics are
included on resident population, age structure, general fertility,
abortions, marriage and divorce, family size, life expectancy,
mortality, migration, and economic status.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40074 Porter,
Gina. The Nigerian census surprise. Geography, Vol.
77, Pt. 4, No. 337, Oct 1992. 371-4 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
Results from the 1991 census of Nigeria are summarized, and their
political implications are considered. Total populations are provided
by state. Consideration is given to questions of data
quality.
Correspondence: G. Porter, University of Durham,
Department of Geography, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, England.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
58:40075 Prevost,
Ronald C. Evaluating the utility of population estimates
as the basis for distributing federal revenues. Pub. Order No.
DA9220946. 1991. 246 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann
Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This study, which concerns the United
States, was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Bowling Green State
University.
Correspondence: University Microfilms
International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1364.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities
and Social Sciences 53(3).
58:40076 Roe, Linda
K.; Carlson, John F.; Swanson, David A. A variation of the
Housing Unit Method for estimating the population of small, rural
areas: a case study of the local expert procedure. Applied
Demography, Vol. 7, No. 2, Summer 1992. 3-5 pp. Washington, D.C. In
Eng.
The authors describe a variation on the Housing Unit Method
(HUM) that "combines two methods....These are: (1) random sampling;
and (2) 'local expert' interviews....These methods, combined with the
HUM may lead to a means of obtaining the population size and,
eventually, composition data required to meet the information needs of
impact assessment projects and other activities affecting small, rural
areas." The methods are tested using data for Nye County, Nevada, a
proposed site for a geologic nuclear waste repository.
This is a
condensed version of a paper originally presented at the 1992 Annual
Meeting of the Population Association of
America.
Correspondence: L. K. Roe, Science Applications
International Corporation, Las Vegas, NV. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
58:40077 Schmitt,
Robert C. Estimating Hawaii's de facto population.
Applied Demography, Vol. 7, No. 2, Summer 1992. 1-3 pp. Washington,
D.C. In Eng.
Methods for estimating de facto population figures for
Hawaii are described and illustrated using official data for the period
1951-1990. Other applications for these methods are also
discussed.
Correspondence: R. C. Schmitt, Hawaii State
Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, Honolulu, HI.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40078 Wegman,
Myron E. Annual summary of vital statistics--1990.
Pediatrics, Vol. 88, No. 6, Dec 1991. 1,081-92 pp. Elk Grove Village,
Illinois. In Eng.
This is an annual review of trends in vital rates
in the United States, based on official data from the U.S. NCHS Monthly
Vital Statistics Report. International trends are also reviewed using
data from U.N. sources. The author notes that "infant mortality
declined more rapidly between 1989 and 1990 than in any year since
1977; the provisional 1990 rate, 9.1 per 1,000 live births was the
lowest ever recorded....Births increased in number and rate; there were
more women in the childbearing years and they had higher fertility
rates. Marriages and divorces both increased slightly. Deaths
increased but the death rate decreased; the estimated age-adjusted
death rate was the lowest ever."
For a previous review for 1987, see
55:40074.
Correspondence: M. E. Wegman, University of
Michigan, School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029.
Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.
58:40079 Bouvier,
Leon F.; Weller, Bob. Florida in the 21st century: the
challenge of population growth. LC 92-72750. 1992. xii, 203 pp.
Center for Immigration Studies: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This study
looks at past, present, and future population change in Florida. The
authors pay particular attention to the impact of population growth,
demographic aging, and increasing ethnic diversity on the state's
social institutions and on its resources and infrastructure. Chapters
are included on children, health and the elderly, education, the
economy and the labor force, and the
environment.
Correspondence: Center for Immigration
Studies, 1815 H Street NW, Suite 1010, Washington, D.C. 20006.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40080 Dittmann,
Pawel. Disaggregation in demographic forecasting.
Studia Demograficzne, No. 3/105, 1991. 129-37 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In
Eng.
"The goal of our study is to find a method which allows [us]
to disaggregate demographic forecasts...." These forecasts "can be
worked out for the whole population under consideration, as well as for
particular subpopulations, taking into account various criteria, for
instance: sex, place of residence, profession, level of education,
[and] source of maintenance."
Correspondence: P. Dittmann,
Akademia Ekonomiczna we Wroclawiu, Komandorska 118/120, 53-345 Wroclaw,
Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40081 Edmonston,
Barry; Lee, Sharon. Analyzing the impact of international
migration on population growth: an application of the stationary
population equivalent model for Singapore. In: American
Statistical Association, 1989 proceedings of the Social Statistics
Section. [1989]. 196-201 pp. American Statistical Association:
Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The [stationary population
equivalent] model offers an alternative method to standard population
projections for understanding the future Singaporean population under
various demographic alternatives. This paper...[proposes] an explicit
population model for addressing debate on the future implication of
immigration and emigration on national social and economic structure.
We first review the results for the total population of Singapore, then
discuss separately the results for the Chinese, Indian, and Malay
populations."
Correspondence: B. Edmonston, Urban
Institute, Population Studies Center, 2100 M Street NW, Washington,
D.C. 20037. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40082 Fullerton,
Howard N. Evaluation of labor force projections to
1990. Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 115, No. 8, Aug 1992. 3-14 pp.
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This article examines the errors in the
[U.S.] labor force projections to 1990 and their sources. It does this
by examining projected levels of the labor force and the rates of labor
force participation of specific age groups for men and women, and for
whites and blacks and others." The results indicate that "the
projections to 1990, although more accurate than those of the 1975,
1980, and 1985 labor force, were significantly affected by population
projections."
Correspondence: H. N. Fullerton, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, Office of Employment Projections, Washington, D.C.
20212. Location: Princeton University Library (Docs).
58:40083 Golini, A.;
De Simoni, A.; Heins, F. Three scenarios concerning
possible population trends in the regions of Italy by 2038 (based on
1988). [Tre scenari per il possibile sviluppo della popolazione
delle regioni italiane al 2038 (base 1988).] 1989. 421 pp. Consiglio
Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione [IRP]:
Rome, Italy. In Ita.
Three alternative projections of the
population of Italy by major and minor region are presented for the
year 2038, based on official data for 1988. The three scenarios are
based on different assumptions concerning developments in fertility.
The projections are broken down by age and
sex.
Correspondence: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche,
Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione, Viale Beethoven 56, 00144 Rome,
Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40084 Israel.
Central Bureau of Statistics (Jerusalem, Israel).
Projection of population in Israel up to 2005. Central Bureau
of Statistics Special Series, No. 913, Jul 1992. 127, xxix pp.
Jerusalem, Israel. In Eng; Heb.
Revised population projections are
presented for Israel up to the year 2005, based on the permanent
population of Israel at the end of 1990. Four alternative projections
are made using various hypotheses concerning international migration
and fertility. The projections are provided by sex and age
group.
Correspondence: Central Bureau of Statistics,
Hakirya, Romema, Jerusalem 91130, Israel. Location: Princeton
University Library (PR).
58:40085 Keilman,
Nico; Kucera, Tomas. The impact of forecasting methodology
on the accuracy of national population forecasts: evidence from the
Netherlands and Czechoslovakia. Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 10,
No. 4, Jul 1991. 371-98 pp. New York, New York/Chichester, England. In
Eng.
"This study considers the accuracy of national population
forecasts of the Netherlands and the Czechoslovak Socialist
Republic....We look at the demographic components employed in each
forecast, the procedure to extrapolate fertility and the level at which
assumptions for each component are formulated. Errors in total
population size, fertility, mortality and foreign migration, and age
structure are considered. We discuss trends in errors and methodology
since 1950 and compare the situations in the two countries. The
findings suggest that methodology has only a very limited impact on the
accuracy of national population forecasts."
Correspondence:
N. Keilman, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O.
Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: World
Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.
58:40086 Kotowska,
Irena E. Application of the LIPRO model for projection of
Poland's population by marital status and place of residence.
Studia Demograficzne, No. 4/106, 1991. 3-26 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
The author uses the multidimensional projection model LIPRO to
project Poland's population by marital status and place of residence.
Data are from official sources. "First, [a] brief description of the
marital status version of the LIPRO model is given. Next, the selected
results of projections for the period 1985-2050 are discussed. Some of
them are compared with the DIALOG projections prepared [by the
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg,
Austria]."
Correspondence: I. E. Kotowska, Warsaw School of
Economics, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw, Poland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40087 Lutz,
Wolfgang; Prinz, Christopher. Long range population
prospects of Finland in the European context. Yearbook of
Population Research in Finland, Vol. 30, 1992. 68-80 pp. Helsinki,
Finland. In Eng.
"The population of Finland is projected along
eleven different scenarios assuming widely diverging alternative trends
in fertility, mortality and migration up to the year 2100....The
results show that no matter what scenario is chosen, the next 30 years
will bring an enormous increase of the population over age 65. The
proportion in working age will be relatively stable up to the year 2010
and then strongly decline under all conditions, which is a consequence
of the Finnish baby boom of the late 1940s. Projected total population
sizes in 2050 will range from 3.5 million in the fertility decline
scenario to 6.6 million in the high immigration
scenario."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis, Population Projects, A-2631 Laxenburg,
Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40088 Pflaumer,
Peter. On local population forecasting. In: American
Statistical Association, 1989 proceedings of the Social Statistics
Section. [1989]. 192-5 pp. American Statistical Association:
Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"In this paper a Monte Carlo
simulation model for projecting the population of Dortmund, a German
city, is presented. Fertility and migration rates vary as random
variables with a specific (subjective) distribution....The results of
the stochastic model are compared with results of the traditional
approach that calculates a low and a high forecast
variant."
Correspondence: P. Pflaumer, Universitat
Konstanz, SFB 178, Postfach 5560, D-7750 Konstanz, Germany.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40089 Samuel, T.
John. Visible minorities in Canada: a projection.
Jun 1992. 53 pp. Canadian Advertising Foundation, Race Relations
Advisory Council on Advertising: Toronto, Canada. In Eng.
Projections are made of Canada's minority populations up to the
year 2001. The author concludes that the minority population will
increase from 6.3 percent of the total in 1986 to 17.7 percent in 2001.
The analysis examines the ethnic proportions of the minority
population for Canada as a whole and its probable distribution by
province and city.
Correspondence: Canadian Advertising
Foundation, 350 Bloor Street East, Suite 402, Toronto, Ontario M4W 1H5,
Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40090 Sutton,
Gordon F.; Danziger, George. Are accuracy and quality the
same thing in projections of local area population? In: American
Statistical Association, 1989 proceedings of the Social Statistics
Section. [1989]. 186-91 pp. American Statistical Association:
Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This paper offers a method which
promises to increase the acceptability of population projections as
forecasts by drawing on ecological models of growth and by calling
forth theories of age and family life cycle patterns in residential
preferences. Sum results from the study of the differences in the
shape of age distributions among communities are presented." The
method is illustrated with data for Massachusetts from 1970 to
1980.
Correspondence: G. F. Sutton, University of
Massachusetts, MISER, Amherst, MA 01003. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
58:40091 Sweden.
Statistiska Centralbyran (Stockholm, Sweden). The future
population of Sweden: projection for the years 1991-2025.
[Sveriges framtida befolkning: prognos for aren 1991-2025.]
Demografiska Rapporter 1991, No. 1, ISBN 91-618-0506-8. Dec 1991. 106
pp. Stockholm, Sweden. In Swe. with sum. in Eng.
Population
projections are presented for Sweden to the year 2025. Changes in the
age distribution over time are examined.
Correspondence:
Statistiska Centralbyran, Karlavagen 100, S102 50 Stockholm, Sweden.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40092 Avramov,
Dragana. Population decline: from phenomenon to
problem. [Opadanje stanovnistva: od populacionog fenomena do
populacionog problema.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 28-29, No. 3-4/1-2,
Jul-Dec/Jan-Jun 1990-1991. 227-43 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr.
with sum. in Eng.
"The author monitors the population 'climate' in
Europe which is characterized by fear of the population growth slowdown
in the first decades of the [twentieth] century and by concerns for
social, economic and demographic implications of population decline in
the last decades of this century."
Correspondence: D.
Avramov, Univerziteta u Beogradu, Centar za Demografska Istrazivanja,
Instituta Drustvenih Nauka, 11000 Belgrade, Yugoslavia.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:40093 Li,
Nan. Calculation of actual population momentum.
Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 3, No. 3, 1991. 241-6 pp.
New York, New York. In Eng.
The author proposes a formula for the
calculation of population momentum, defined as "the value of a
population that suddenly becomes static at a certain time and at an
age-specific rate; it is the ratio between the ultimate size and the
current size of a population. Obviously, the greater the population
momentum, the stronger the momentum for growth." The method is tested
using 1982 data for China.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
58:40094 Lu,
Li. Population development in 50 years in Zouping County,
Shandong Province. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 2,
No. 3, 1990. 257-68 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Population
trends in Zouping County, China, since 1935 are analyzed. Separate
consideration is given to population density; birth, death, and natural
growth; sex composition; educational and marital status; households;
and occupations.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
58:40095 Potter,
Robert B. Demographic change in a small island state: St.
Vincent and the Grenadines, 1980-1991. Geography, Vol. 77, Pt. 4,
No. 337, Oct 1992. 374-6 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
Preliminary estimates of the population of Saint Vincent and the
Grenadines are presented based on the 1991 census, and population
trends over the period 1980-1991 are
analyzed.
Correspondence: R. B. Potter, University of
London, Royal Holloway, Egham Hill, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, England.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
58:40096 United
States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.).
Population trends in the 1980's. Current Population Reports,
Series P-23: Special Studies, No. 175, May 1992. vi, 63 pp.
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents the current results
of analysis of the [U.S.] population estimates program since 1980.
These data are consistent with the coverage attained in the 1980 census
and include no 1990 census results....This report contains four
chapters presenting the cumulative results of national estimates, State
estimates, annual interstate migration, and substate estimates
(counties, places, and metropolitan areas) produced during the decade.
Each chapter is written by authors responsible for developing estimates
at each level of geography."
Correspondence: U.S.
Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington,
D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
