58:30729 Adler,
Frederick R. The effects of averaging on the basic
reproduction ratio. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 111, No. 1, Sep
1992. 89-98 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author discusses
aspects of the spread of a disease such as AIDS. The paper "formalizes
the process of averaging the mixing patterns of behaviorally distinct
individuals or groups. This averaging process is shown to decrease or
leave unaltered the basic reproduction ratio...in epidemiological
models with symmetric transmission between
groups."
Correspondence: F. R. Adler, University of
California, Department of Zoology, Davis, CA 95616. Location:
Princeton University Library (SM).
58:30730 Aghili,
Feridoun S. The construction of selected robust
demographic indices based on multivariate analytical methods and their
application. [Construction de quelques indices demographiques
robustes bases sur des methodes d'analyse multivariees et
applications.] Journal de la Societe de Statistique de Paris, Vol. 133,
No. 1-2, 1992. 58-71 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"We introduce several [demographic] indices based on robust
covariance estimation. These indices allow us to characterize the
profile of social populations. These results are applied to
characterize the demographic [profiles] of children suffering
'behaviour', 'personality', and 'language'
troubles."
Correspondence: F. S. Aghili, Universite de
Geneve, 3 Place de l'Universite, 1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:30731 Costa,
Giacomo. On some dynamic aspects of the Ricardian model of
capital accumulation and population growth. In: Essays on
population economics in memory of Alfred Sauvy, edited by Giuseppe
Gaburro and Dudley L. Poston. 1991. 241-55 pp. Casa Editrice Dott.
Antonio Milani [CEDAM]: Padua, Italy. In Eng.
"The main purpose of
this paper is to discuss some stability properties of the...one-sector,
circulating capital Ricardian model. The essential nature of this
model--the joint operation of capital accumulation and population
growth--is reviewed in Section 1, by means of a version of the model
that happens to be linear....In Section 2 an attempt is made at
providing the 'missing' limiting argument....It is shown in Section 3
that [the standard system of differential equations] appears to be the
outcome of the rather questionable procedure of letting the period
shrink to zero in some relations, while setting it equal to 1 in
others....In Section 4, there is a brief discussion of those productive
aspects of the Ricardian model that make it nonlinear and are a source
of possible dynamic complexity. In Section 5, a specific example is
taken up, and some study of the local stability properties of the
stationary equilibrium is undertaken."
Correspondence: G.
Costa, Universita degli Studi, Faculty of Political Sciences, Lungarno
Pacinotti 45, 56100 Pisa, Italy. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
58:30732
Feichtinger, Gustav; Steinmann, Gunter.
Immigration into a population with fertility below replacement
level--the case of Germany. Population Studies, Vol. 46, No. 2,
Jul 1992. 275-84 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this paper stable
population theory is used to study the demographic effects of a steady
stream of immigrants into a population with fertility below replacement
level. It is assumed that the fertility of foreigners (persons born
outside of this country) is higher than that of the native-born. We
present a discrete-time Leslie-type model and analyse its asymptotic
stationary behaviour. We prove that the asymptotic ratio between
foreign-born and native-born does not depend on the size of the
immigration flow, but solely on the relative fertility of the two
groups, the sex ratio, and age distribution of the immigrants." Data
for East and West Germany for 1988 are used to illustrate the model.
The effects of continuous immigration on population size in united
Germany under various demographic hypotheses are
examined.
Correspondence: G. Feichtinger, Vienna University
of Technology, Institute for Econometrics, Operations Research and
Systems Theory, Argentinierstrasse 8, A-1040 Vienna, Austria.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:30733 Freels,
Sally. Nonparametric bivariate survival analysis applied
to women's age at first marriage and age at first birth. In:
American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social
Statistics Section. [1991]. 447-51 pp. American Statistical
Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"A new solution is
proposed for a sparse data problem arising in nonparametric estimation
of a bivariate survival function....Methods are applied to the
distribution of women's age at first marriage and age at birth of first
child, using data from the [U.S.] Current Population Surveys of 1975
and 1986."
Correspondence: S. Freels, University of
Illinois, P.O. Box 6998, Chicago, IL 60680. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:30734 Gaburro,
Giuseppe; Poston, Dudley L. Essays on population economics
in memory of Alfred Sauvy. Studi di Economia Collana dell'Istituto
di Scienze Economiche, No. 4, ISBN 88-13-17378-4. 1991. xx, 357 pp.
Casa Editrice Dott. Antonio Milani [CEDAM]: Padua, Italy; Universita di
Verona, Faculta di Economia e Commercio: Verona, Italy. In Eng; Fre.
"This volume contains a selected set of revised papers originally
presented at [a conference on demographic modeling] as well as a set of
solicited papers that we believe further illustrate the broad spectrum
of modelling approaches." The conference was held February 10-12, 1988,
in Verona Italy. The geographical scope of the papers is worldwide.
This volume is dedicated to the late French demographer Alfred Sauvy; a
bibliography of his works is included. All the papers are in English
except the one by Sauvy, which is in French.
Selected items will be
cited in this or subsequent issues of Population
Index.
Correspondence: Casa Editrice Dott. Antonio Milani,
Via Jappelli 5/6, 35121 Padua, Italy. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
58:30735 Gill,
Richard D. Multistate life-tables and regression
models. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1992.
259-76 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
"A survey is given of the use
of modern statistical techniques in event history analysis, and in
particular in the study of multi-state life-tables in demography.
Emphasis is placed on the interplay between partial likelihood and
nonparametric maximum likelihood based methods, a) when analysing
semi-Markov models or models with repeated spells, and b) in frailty
models for unobservable heterogeneity."
Correspondence: R.
D. Gill, University of Utrecht, Mathematical Institute, P.O. Box
80.010, 3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
58:30736
Grummer-Strawn, Laurence M. Regression analysis on
current-status data: an application to breastfeeding. In:
Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991,
Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,113-30 pp. Institute
for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health
Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"In this paper, I have
considered alternative approaches to the modelling of current-status
data [on breast-feeding]. I have fit parametric, non-parametric,
standard schedule and spline models, looking both at their goodness of
fit and the parameter estimates generated by each." Data from the
Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in Colombia, Indonesia, Mali,
Nigeria, Peru, and Sri Lanka are used to illustrate the
models.
Correspondence: L. M. Grummer-Strawn, Centers for
Disease Control, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:30737 Horiuchi,
Shiro. Assessing the effects of mortality reduction on
population ageing. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No.
31-32, 1991. 38-51 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article
presents a new method for decomposing age distribution changes into
changes in the number of births and changes in age-specific rates of
mortality and migration. The method is developed on the basis of the
equation for the age-specific growth rate proposed by Horiuchi and
Preston (1988). Using this method, it is shown that the increase in
the proportion of women in Japan during 1970-1980 is mainly due to the
reduction of mortality, particularly at old ages. The results lend
support to the proposed idea that the pattern of age structure changes
in developed countries is now shifting from fertility-dominated to
mortality-dominated ageing."
This is a revised version of a paper
originally presented at the 1989 Annual Meeting of the Population
Association of America.
For the paper by Horiuchi and Preston, see
54:30702.
Correspondence: S. Horiuchi, Rockefeller
University, Laboratory of Population, New York, NY 10021-6399.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:30738 Inaba,
Hisashi. Duration-dependent multistate population
dynamics. Institute of Population Problems Working Paper Series,
No. 9, Jan 1992. 20 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
"We provide two
theoretical models which deterministically describe the dynamics of
duration-dependent multistate populations. The models are formulated
respectively by a system of first order partial differential equations
with integral boundary conditions....We briefly mention the
relationship between our deterministic approach and the semi-Markov
model."
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems,
Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo
100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:30739 Jozwiak,
Janina. Mathematical models of population. NIDI
Report, No. 26, ISBN 90-70990-35-0. 1992. 133 pp. Netherlands
Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute [NIDI]: The Hague, Netherlands.
In Eng.
"This report, which is a revised version of a book
originally published in Polish, is concerned with mathematical
population models. These models describe the process of change in the
structure and size of a population from a dynamic perspective. Various
models are presented in a mathematically rigourous way, starting from
the simplest case, in which the population structure includes age only,
through successive modifications that include additional factors
differentiating the structure of population. This report is intended
for researchers dealing with the analysis of population dynamics, as
well as for students of demography. It may be especially useful as a
textbook for a course in mathematical demography."
For the Polish
version of this book, published in 1985, see 53:30762.
Correspondence: Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic
Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:30740 Kotowska,
Irena. Demographic variables in demo-economic model of
Poland. In: Essays on population economics in memory of Alfred
Sauvy, edited by Giuseppe Gaburro and Dudley L. Poston. 1991. 221-39
pp. Casa Editrice Dott. Antonio Milani [CEDAM]: Padua, Italy. In Eng.
"The paper concerns research on the large-scale demo-economic model
[DEMB] in Poland. The model aims, first of all, to discover
relationships between demographic and economic processes in Poland in
1960-1983....To illustrate,...some regression results regarding
selected demographic equations are presented (fertility, mortality and
economic activity)."
Correspondence: I. Kotowska, Central
School of Planning and Statistics, Institute of Statistics and
Demography, Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:30741 Osman,
Magued I. The mixture of distributions as a model for
analysing anthropometric data. In: Demographic and Health Surveys
World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings.
Volume 2. 1991. 1,101-12 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro
International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia,
Maryland. In Eng.
"In this paper, a...general model is considered
for modelling anthropometric data...using a...mixture of two normal
distributions....The notion of mixture distribution is presented, [and]
the suggested model is described and applied to Egypt Demographic and
Health Survey data on height for age." Some data from selected
countries that participated in the Demographic and Health Surveys are
included for comparison.
Correspondence: M. I. Osman, Cairo
University, Cairo, Egypt. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
58:30742 Pandey,
Arvind; Suchindran, C. M. Modeling fertility with
mortality as a competing risk: an application. In: American
Statistical Association, 1988 proceedings of the Social Statistics
Section. 1988. 127-32 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria,
Virginia. In Eng.
"In this paper, we present distributions of birth
intervals by different order and final parity considering fertility
risk to be a function of age and parity. Age distribution of women at
births of different order and PPRs are derived as a byproduct of the
model. Distributions and summary measures derived therefrom are
compared by applying the models on vital statistics data on fertility
and mortality of women in [the] United States for
1970."
Correspondence: A. Pandey, University of North
Carolina, University Square 300A/CB# 8120, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:30743 Perali,
Federico. Demographic translating and scaling within the
Almost Ideal Demand System: an application to the U.S. demand for
fluid milk products 1950-1985. In: Essays on population economics
in memory of Alfred Sauvy, edited by Giuseppe Gaburro and Dudley L.
Poston. 1991. 257-80 pp. Casa Editrice Dott. Antonio Milani [CEDAM]:
Padua, Italy. In Eng.
"This study estimated the U.S. demand for
fluid milk products during the period 1950-1985 incorporating
demographic effects within the Almost Ideal Demand System. The
original demand system has been modified by using demographic
translating and scaling....The analysis shows that the demographic
profile of the U.S. population has a substantial impact on the
consumption of fluid products regardless of whether translating or
scaling is adopted....The evidence presented in this study indicates
that the choice between demographic translating and demographic scaling
may be critical."
Correspondence: F. Perali, University of
Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
58:30744 Trussell,
James; Hankinson, Richard; Tilton, Judith. Demographic
applications of event history analysis. International Studies in
Demography, ISBN 0-19-828386-6. LC 91-30485. 1992. ix, 276 pp.
Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
This book contains a
selection of papers presented at a 1988 seminar on event history
analysis, which was sponsored jointly by the Institut National d'Etudes
Demographiques and the International Union for the Scientific Study of
Population. The papers included here illustrate the use of new
techniques in event history analysis. "The book covers three main
areas. First, it summarizes the work on the incorporation of
unmeasured heterogeneity into the analysis of event histories;
secondly, it introduces a series of 'competitions' in which pairs of
teams are assigned to analyse the same topic using the same data;
finally, it discusses other methodological issues such as the treatment
of missing data, the analysis of current-status data, and the relation
between discrete and continuous time models." Five of the ten papers
use data for Sweden and two focus on France.
Selected items will be
cited in this or subsequent issues of Population
Index.
Correspondence: Oxford University Press, Walton
Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, England. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
58:30745 Wu, Berlin;
Liaw, Miin-chih. ARIMA modeling of birth, marriage and
population growth rates in Taiwan. Journal of Population Studies,
No. 14, Dec 1991. 109-32 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Chi. with sum. in Eng.
"In this paper, we will focus on [population growth, birth, and
marriage rates in Taiwan] and explore [them] in terms of the time
series model. Furthermore, the comparison and analysis will be made
utilizing [the] univariate ARIMA model, transfer function model and
multivariate ARIMA model accordingly. The seasonal factor will also be
considered. Lastly, [projections] will be made on the short term
growth rate of these three indexes, and we will also estimate the
monthly sum of population of the next two years in
Taiwan."
Correspondence: B. Wu, National Chengchi
University, Institute of Applied Mathematics, Wenshan 11623, Taipei,
Taiwan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
