Volume 58 - Number 3 - Fall 1992

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

58:30729 Adler, Frederick R. The effects of averaging on the basic reproduction ratio. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 111, No. 1, Sep 1992. 89-98 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author discusses aspects of the spread of a disease such as AIDS. The paper "formalizes the process of averaging the mixing patterns of behaviorally distinct individuals or groups. This averaging process is shown to decrease or leave unaltered the basic reproduction ratio...in epidemiological models with symmetric transmission between groups."
Correspondence: F. R. Adler, University of California, Department of Zoology, Davis, CA 95616. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

58:30730 Aghili, Feridoun S. The construction of selected robust demographic indices based on multivariate analytical methods and their application. [Construction de quelques indices demographiques robustes bases sur des methodes d'analyse multivariees et applications.] Journal de la Societe de Statistique de Paris, Vol. 133, No. 1-2, 1992. 58-71 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"We introduce several [demographic] indices based on robust covariance estimation. These indices allow us to characterize the profile of social populations. These results are applied to characterize the demographic [profiles] of children suffering 'behaviour', 'personality', and 'language' troubles."
Correspondence: F. S. Aghili, Universite de Geneve, 3 Place de l'Universite, 1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30731 Costa, Giacomo. On some dynamic aspects of the Ricardian model of capital accumulation and population growth. In: Essays on population economics in memory of Alfred Sauvy, edited by Giuseppe Gaburro and Dudley L. Poston. 1991. 241-55 pp. Casa Editrice Dott. Antonio Milani [CEDAM]: Padua, Italy. In Eng.
"The main purpose of this paper is to discuss some stability properties of the...one-sector, circulating capital Ricardian model. The essential nature of this model--the joint operation of capital accumulation and population growth--is reviewed in Section 1, by means of a version of the model that happens to be linear....In Section 2 an attempt is made at providing the 'missing' limiting argument....It is shown in Section 3 that [the standard system of differential equations] appears to be the outcome of the rather questionable procedure of letting the period shrink to zero in some relations, while setting it equal to 1 in others....In Section 4, there is a brief discussion of those productive aspects of the Ricardian model that make it nonlinear and are a source of possible dynamic complexity. In Section 5, a specific example is taken up, and some study of the local stability properties of the stationary equilibrium is undertaken."
Correspondence: G. Costa, Universita degli Studi, Faculty of Political Sciences, Lungarno Pacinotti 45, 56100 Pisa, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30732 Feichtinger, Gustav; Steinmann, Gunter. Immigration into a population with fertility below replacement level--the case of Germany. Population Studies, Vol. 46, No. 2, Jul 1992. 275-84 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this paper stable population theory is used to study the demographic effects of a steady stream of immigrants into a population with fertility below replacement level. It is assumed that the fertility of foreigners (persons born outside of this country) is higher than that of the native-born. We present a discrete-time Leslie-type model and analyse its asymptotic stationary behaviour. We prove that the asymptotic ratio between foreign-born and native-born does not depend on the size of the immigration flow, but solely on the relative fertility of the two groups, the sex ratio, and age distribution of the immigrants." Data for East and West Germany for 1988 are used to illustrate the model. The effects of continuous immigration on population size in united Germany under various demographic hypotheses are examined.
Correspondence: G. Feichtinger, Vienna University of Technology, Institute for Econometrics, Operations Research and Systems Theory, Argentinierstrasse 8, A-1040 Vienna, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30733 Freels, Sally. Nonparametric bivariate survival analysis applied to women's age at first marriage and age at first birth. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 447-51 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"A new solution is proposed for a sparse data problem arising in nonparametric estimation of a bivariate survival function....Methods are applied to the distribution of women's age at first marriage and age at birth of first child, using data from the [U.S.] Current Population Surveys of 1975 and 1986."
Correspondence: S. Freels, University of Illinois, P.O. Box 6998, Chicago, IL 60680. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30734 Gaburro, Giuseppe; Poston, Dudley L. Essays on population economics in memory of Alfred Sauvy. Studi di Economia Collana dell'Istituto di Scienze Economiche, No. 4, ISBN 88-13-17378-4. 1991. xx, 357 pp. Casa Editrice Dott. Antonio Milani [CEDAM]: Padua, Italy; Universita di Verona, Faculta di Economia e Commercio: Verona, Italy. In Eng; Fre.
"This volume contains a selected set of revised papers originally presented at [a conference on demographic modeling] as well as a set of solicited papers that we believe further illustrate the broad spectrum of modelling approaches." The conference was held February 10-12, 1988, in Verona Italy. The geographical scope of the papers is worldwide. This volume is dedicated to the late French demographer Alfred Sauvy; a bibliography of his works is included. All the papers are in English except the one by Sauvy, which is in French.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Casa Editrice Dott. Antonio Milani, Via Jappelli 5/6, 35121 Padua, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30735 Gill, Richard D. Multistate life-tables and regression models. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1992. 259-76 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
"A survey is given of the use of modern statistical techniques in event history analysis, and in particular in the study of multi-state life-tables in demography. Emphasis is placed on the interplay between partial likelihood and nonparametric maximum likelihood based methods, a) when analysing semi-Markov models or models with repeated spells, and b) in frailty models for unobservable heterogeneity."
Correspondence: R. D. Gill, University of Utrecht, Mathematical Institute, P.O. Box 80.010, 3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30736 Grummer-Strawn, Laurence M. Regression analysis on current-status data: an application to breastfeeding. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,113-30 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"In this paper, I have considered alternative approaches to the modelling of current-status data [on breast-feeding]. I have fit parametric, non-parametric, standard schedule and spline models, looking both at their goodness of fit and the parameter estimates generated by each." Data from the Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in Colombia, Indonesia, Mali, Nigeria, Peru, and Sri Lanka are used to illustrate the models.
Correspondence: L. M. Grummer-Strawn, Centers for Disease Control, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30737 Horiuchi, Shiro. Assessing the effects of mortality reduction on population ageing. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 31-32, 1991. 38-51 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article presents a new method for decomposing age distribution changes into changes in the number of births and changes in age-specific rates of mortality and migration. The method is developed on the basis of the equation for the age-specific growth rate proposed by Horiuchi and Preston (1988). Using this method, it is shown that the increase in the proportion of women in Japan during 1970-1980 is mainly due to the reduction of mortality, particularly at old ages. The results lend support to the proposed idea that the pattern of age structure changes in developed countries is now shifting from fertility-dominated to mortality-dominated ageing."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1989 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
For the paper by Horiuchi and Preston, see 54:30702.
Correspondence: S. Horiuchi, Rockefeller University, Laboratory of Population, New York, NY 10021-6399. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30738 Inaba, Hisashi. Duration-dependent multistate population dynamics. Institute of Population Problems Working Paper Series, No. 9, Jan 1992. 20 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
"We provide two theoretical models which deterministically describe the dynamics of duration-dependent multistate populations. The models are formulated respectively by a system of first order partial differential equations with integral boundary conditions....We briefly mention the relationship between our deterministic approach and the semi-Markov model."
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30739 Jozwiak, Janina. Mathematical models of population. NIDI Report, No. 26, ISBN 90-70990-35-0. 1992. 133 pp. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute [NIDI]: The Hague, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This report, which is a revised version of a book originally published in Polish, is concerned with mathematical population models. These models describe the process of change in the structure and size of a population from a dynamic perspective. Various models are presented in a mathematically rigourous way, starting from the simplest case, in which the population structure includes age only, through successive modifications that include additional factors differentiating the structure of population. This report is intended for researchers dealing with the analysis of population dynamics, as well as for students of demography. It may be especially useful as a textbook for a course in mathematical demography."
For the Polish version of this book, published in 1985, see 53:30762.
Correspondence: Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30740 Kotowska, Irena. Demographic variables in demo-economic model of Poland. In: Essays on population economics in memory of Alfred Sauvy, edited by Giuseppe Gaburro and Dudley L. Poston. 1991. 221-39 pp. Casa Editrice Dott. Antonio Milani [CEDAM]: Padua, Italy. In Eng.
"The paper concerns research on the large-scale demo-economic model [DEMB] in Poland. The model aims, first of all, to discover relationships between demographic and economic processes in Poland in 1960-1983....To illustrate,...some regression results regarding selected demographic equations are presented (fertility, mortality and economic activity)."
Correspondence: I. Kotowska, Central School of Planning and Statistics, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30741 Osman, Magued I. The mixture of distributions as a model for analysing anthropometric data. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,101-12 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"In this paper, a...general model is considered for modelling anthropometric data...using a...mixture of two normal distributions....The notion of mixture distribution is presented, [and] the suggested model is described and applied to Egypt Demographic and Health Survey data on height for age." Some data from selected countries that participated in the Demographic and Health Surveys are included for comparison.
Correspondence: M. I. Osman, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30742 Pandey, Arvind; Suchindran, C. M. Modeling fertility with mortality as a competing risk: an application. In: American Statistical Association, 1988 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. 1988. 127-32 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"In this paper, we present distributions of birth intervals by different order and final parity considering fertility risk to be a function of age and parity. Age distribution of women at births of different order and PPRs are derived as a byproduct of the model. Distributions and summary measures derived therefrom are compared by applying the models on vital statistics data on fertility and mortality of women in [the] United States for 1970."
Correspondence: A. Pandey, University of North Carolina, University Square 300A/CB# 8120, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30743 Perali, Federico. Demographic translating and scaling within the Almost Ideal Demand System: an application to the U.S. demand for fluid milk products 1950-1985. In: Essays on population economics in memory of Alfred Sauvy, edited by Giuseppe Gaburro and Dudley L. Poston. 1991. 257-80 pp. Casa Editrice Dott. Antonio Milani [CEDAM]: Padua, Italy. In Eng.
"This study estimated the U.S. demand for fluid milk products during the period 1950-1985 incorporating demographic effects within the Almost Ideal Demand System. The original demand system has been modified by using demographic translating and scaling....The analysis shows that the demographic profile of the U.S. population has a substantial impact on the consumption of fluid products regardless of whether translating or scaling is adopted....The evidence presented in this study indicates that the choice between demographic translating and demographic scaling may be critical."
Correspondence: F. Perali, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30744 Trussell, James; Hankinson, Richard; Tilton, Judith. Demographic applications of event history analysis. International Studies in Demography, ISBN 0-19-828386-6. LC 91-30485. 1992. ix, 276 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
This book contains a selection of papers presented at a 1988 seminar on event history analysis, which was sponsored jointly by the Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques and the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. The papers included here illustrate the use of new techniques in event history analysis. "The book covers three main areas. First, it summarizes the work on the incorporation of unmeasured heterogeneity into the analysis of event histories; secondly, it introduces a series of 'competitions' in which pairs of teams are assigned to analyse the same topic using the same data; finally, it discusses other methodological issues such as the treatment of missing data, the analysis of current-status data, and the relation between discrete and continuous time models." Five of the ten papers use data for Sweden and two focus on France.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Oxford University Press, Walton Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30745 Wu, Berlin; Liaw, Miin-chih. ARIMA modeling of birth, marriage and population growth rates in Taiwan. Journal of Population Studies, No. 14, Dec 1991. 109-32 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Chi. with sum. in Eng.
"In this paper, we will focus on [population growth, birth, and marriage rates in Taiwan] and explore [them] in terms of the time series model. Furthermore, the comparison and analysis will be made utilizing [the] univariate ARIMA model, transfer function model and multivariate ARIMA model accordingly. The seasonal factor will also be considered. Lastly, [projections] will be made on the short term growth rate of these three indexes, and we will also estimate the monthly sum of population of the next two years in Taiwan."
Correspondence: B. Wu, National Chengchi University, Institute of Applied Mathematics, Wenshan 11623, Taipei, Taiwan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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