F. Fertility

F.1. General Fertility

58:30189 Abeysinghe, Tilak. A seasonal analysis of Chinese births. Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol. 18, No. 2, 1991. 275-86 pp. Abingdon, England. In Eng.
"Investigation of monthly Chinese births in Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Taiwan shows a very similar seasonal pattern. The strong influence of Chinese culture appears to be the cause of the seasonality and similarity. Economic development has not altered this seasonal pattern significantly. The statistical methods presented in this paper to analyze Chinese births are readily applicable to many other areas."
Correspondence: T. Abeysinghe, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics and Statistics, 10 Kent Ridge Crescent, Singapore 0511. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30190 Adlakha, Arjun; Ayad, Mohamed; Kumar, Sushil. The role of nuptiality in fertility decline: a comparative analysis. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 947-64 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"In this paper, we have focused on the analysis of levels and trends of age at first marriage and the impact of nuptiality on fertility decline in the DHS countries. Comparisons of DHS data with data from the WFS have been attempted where possible....In conclusion we would like to make two points. First, importance of nuptiality in achieving reduction in fertility is clear from the results in the North African countries; therefore population policies aimed at reducing fertility should include marriage as an element of change. Second, in many Asian and North African countries, decline in fertility started because of delaying age at marriage, followed by an increase in use of birth control, while age at marriage continued to increase."
Correspondence: A. Adlakha, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30191 Aghajanian, Akbar. Socioeconomic modernization, status of women and fertility decline in Iran. In: Essays on population economics in memory of Alfred Sauvy, edited by Giuseppe Gaburro and Dudley L. Poston. 1991. 333-51 pp. Casa Editrice Dott. Antonio Milani [CEDAM]: Padua, Italy. In Eng.
"This paper uses available data to examine the impact of socioeconomic development and modernization on fertility decline in Iran during 1966-1976. Data from 1966 and 1976 censuses are used to test some of the hypotheses about the relation between development and fertility....The paths that link development to fertility are explained theoretically and examined empirically with intercensus data. It is suggested that the minimal effect of modernization and socioeconomic development on fertility in Iran is due to the fact that the process of economic development and modernization has been biased by class and gender."
Correspondence: A. Aghajanian, University of Washington, Department of Sociology, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30192 Anderson, Barbara A.; Silver, Brian D. A simple measure of fertility control. Demography, Vol. 29, No. 3, Aug 1992. 343-56 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"We describe a simple measure of fertility control: the proportion of all births from the age-specific fertility schedule that occurs among women by age 35. This measure has broad applicability because it does not require information on marital fertility rates. When both the proportion of births by age 35 and the most commonly used measure of fertility control, m, are calculated for a population over time, they are correlated very highly. Because of increasing levels of nonmarital fertility in several developed countries, measures of fertility control that are based on marital fertility are less appropriate now than in the past." Data for Japan, Sweden, and Taiwan are used as illustrations.
Correspondence: B. A. Anderson, University of Michigan, Department of Sociology, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30193 Anderson, Barbara A.; Silver, Brian D. A simple measure of fertility control: illustrations from the Soviet Union. Population Studies Center Research Report, No. 91-214, May 1991. 27 pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"In this paper we describe a simple measure of fertility control: the proportion of all births from the age-specific fertility schedule that occurs to women by age 35. This proportion generally increases over time in a given population, even when there are large fluctuations in the total fertility rate. It allows detection of increased fertility control in populations sometimes before any substantial decline in the total fertility rate has occurred. Unlike most alternative measures of fertility control, this one does not require information on the marital status of the population or on marital fertility rates. We examine properties of the measure using data from the Soviet Union as well as several developed and developing countries."
Correspondence: University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1070. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30194 Behar, C. L.; Dupaquier, J. The invention of the marital fertility rate: J. Matthews Duncan. [L'invention des taux de fecondite legitime: J. Matthews Duncan.] Annales de Demographie Historique, 1991. 297-335 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The authors review the work of the nineteenth-century Scottish gynecologist J. Matthews Duncan, who is credited with the development of the marital fertility rate for use in demographic analysis. Appendixes include a bibliography of Duncan's published works, which cover primarily fertility, sterility, and problems related to pregnancy, including infant and maternal mortality.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30195 Birg, Herwig. A biographic/demographic analysis of the relationship between fertility and occupational activity for women and married couples. In: Female labour market behaviour and fertility: a rational-choice approach, edited by Jacques J. Siegers, Jenny de Jong-Gierveld, and Evert van Imhoff. 1991. 133-57 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"In this paper the analytical tools of the biographic theory of fertility are applied to the analysis of interdependencies of life course events....First it will be shown that the relation between decisions concerning fertility and decisions concerning occupation describes a dynamic decision process (section 2)....Section 3 outlines the main theoretical elements of the biographic approach....Section 4 contains the empirical results obtained from a biographic survey. Finally, the main conclusions...are outlined in section 5." Data are from a survey of West German men and women born in 1950 and 1955.
Correspondence: H. Birg, Universitat Bielefeld, Institut fur Bevolkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik, Postfach 8640, 4800 Bielefeld 1, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

58:30196 Blanchet, Didier. Interpreting trends in women's labor force participation and fertility. [Interpreter les evolutions temporelles de l'activite feminine et de la fecondite.] Population, Vol. 47, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1992. 389-408 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The relationship between women's labor force participation and fertility is examined. "We consider French data between 1968 and 1982 which suggest that...fertility has little changed when activity is controlled for. We try to interpret this with a small model of behaviour whose three parameters are: the average value attributed to work, the value attributed to large families, and an index of incompatibility between activity and childbearing. It is concluded that it is variations of the first of these parameters which provide the best explanation for the joint trend in activity and fertility."
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30197 Cliquet, Robert; Deven, Freddy; Corijn, Martine; Callens, Marc; Lodewijckx, Edith. The fifth Fertility and Family Survey in Flanders, 1991: conceptual and analytical framework. [De 5e Enquete Gezinsontwikkeling Vlaanderen, 1991: conceptueel en analytisch referentiekader.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 3, 1991. 21-49 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
This is a general outline of the methodological and conceptual backgrounds of the fifth Fertility and Family Survey (NEGO V) conducted in Belgium in 1991 as part of the European Community's Fertility and Family Surveys project. The survey concerns the indigenous Flemish population as well as Dutch-speaking residents of Brussels.
Correspondence: R. Cliquet, Centrum voor Bevolkings- en Gezinsstudien, Markiesstraat 1, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30198 Coale, Ansley J. Age of entry into marriage and the date of the initiation of voluntary birth control. Demography, Vol. 29, No. 3, Aug 1992. 333-41 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"It is widely known that modern economic development has been accompanied by the initiation and spread of effective limitation of fertility, and that generally the populations which experienced development at a late date also had a belated reduction in childbearing. Here a surprising relation is found between (and within) broad regions: the areas in which traditional age of entry into marriage was late were the areas in which marital fertility was reduced first....Our theme is not that late marriage itself leads to the early institution of reduced fertility among married couples, but rather that the entrenched social customs which lead to a high mean age at marriage are more conducive to the initiation of voluntary control of marital fertility than are the social customs which promote early marriage....We have examined nuptiality and the control of marital fertility in Europe, where the transition in fertility first occurred; in the former Soviet Union, where the transition began about a century ago in some republics, and in others began only within the recent past; and in India, where in 1980 marital fertility was little removed from 'natural' fertility in some states, and in others was restricted severely by contraception."
Correspondence: A. J. Coale, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30199 De Koninck, Maria; Gauvreau, Danielle. Reflections, assessments, and perspectives: results of a roundtable discussion. [Reflexions, bilan et prospective: compte rendu d'une table ronde.] Recherches Sociographiques, Vol. 32, No. 3, Sep-Dec 1991. 427-40, 484 pp. Quebec, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The text of an interdisciplinary roundtable discussion on observed and predicted changes in reproductive behavior is presented. The participants discuss the effects of social change, women's labor force participation, and government policy on fertility decisions. The roundtable was held in 1990; the geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: M. De Koninck, Universite Laval, Departement de Medecine Sociale et Preventive, Cite Universitaire, Quebec, Quebec G1K 7P4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30200 Decroly, Jean-Michel; Grasland, Claude. Frontiers, political systems, and fertility in Europe. [Frontieres, systemes politiques et fecondite en Europe.] Espace, Populations, Societes, No. 2, 1992. 135-52 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The effects of political systems on regional fertility levels in Europe are examined. The various methods of measuring such effects are first described. "In the case of fertility in Europe, the analysis reveals strong interdependencies between regional or local behaviours and the adherence to political systems. The interpretation of these interdependencies is based on three families of assumptions connected with political systems organization."
Correspondence: J.-M. Decroly, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Laboratoire de Geographie Humaine, Campus de la Plaine, CP 246, Boulevard du Triomphe, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30201 Delgado Perez, Margarita; Livi-Bacci, Massimo. Fertility in Italy and Spain: the lowest in the world. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 24, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1992. 162-7, 171 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
This article "describes and compares fertility trends in Italy and Spain and speculates on the causes of the exceptionally low fertility in these two countries, which have been known for the central role children play in family and society." A comparison is made with other European countries; consideration is then given to abortion, contraceptive usage, and ideal family size in Spain and Italy. Data are from a variety of published sources and concern trends since the 1960s.
Correspondence: M. Delgado Perez, Centro de Investigaciones Sociologicas, Departamento de Banco de Datos, Madrid, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30202 El-Khorazaty, M. Nabil. The correspondence between Bongaarts and childbearing models. In: American Statistical Association, 1988 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. 1988. 133-8 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The present paper discusses the correspondence between Bongaarts indices for marriage, contraception, and infecundability, and the childbearing indices for ages at first and last birth and reproductive span." Data from developed and developing countries are used as illustrations. The author concludes that "the convenience of estimating time series of Bongaarts and childbearing indices can help detect changes in fertility behavior and responses to policy actions and measures, especially in developing countries."
Correspondence: M. N. El-Khorazaty, Central Statistics Organization, P.O. Box 5835, Manama, Bahrain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30203 El-Khorazaty, M. Nabil. Time series analysis of three centuries of the childbearing and fertility process in Finland. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 452-7 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
Models that use age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) to estimate temporal childbearing and fertility-inhibiting indices are analyzed using data for Finland. "First, the two sets of indices will be calculated for the period (1776-1987) for which ASFRs are available. Second, applying the Box-Jenkins (1976) time series technique, future and reverse forecasts of the two sets of indices will be computed."
Correspondence: M. N. El-Khorazaty, 14000 Cove Lane, #103, Rockville, MD 20851-1236. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30204 Ermisch, John F. Economic models of women's employment and fertility. In: Female labour market behaviour and fertility: a rational-choice approach, edited by Jacques J. Siegers, Jenny de Jong-Gierveld, and Evert van Imhoff. 1991. 175-90 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"The paper...is a review of economic studies of women's labour supply and fertility. The author concludes that there have been relatively few contributions of new models to guide the empirical analysis since the classic study of Willis (1974); the primary contribution of recent studies is the model's econometric estimation." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: J. F. Ermisch, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2 Dean Trench Street, London SW1P 3HE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

58:30205 European Communities. Statistical Office [EUROSTAT] (Brussels, Belgium). Study on the relationship between female activity and fertility. 1991. x, 193; 291 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
This two-volume report presents the results of a study on the relationship between female economic activity and fertility in Europe. The first volume concerns Europe as a whole. The second presents national reports for France, Italy, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and West Germany.
Correspondence: European Communities, Statistical Office, P.O. Box 1907, Luxembourg. Location: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, Paris, France.

58:30206 Filipov, Dimitar. Fertility trends in Bulgaria (1960-1990). [Dinamika na plodovitostta v Balgariya (1960-1990 g.).] Naselenie, No. 1, 1992. 72-84 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
"This paper reports an analysis of fertility in Bulgaria during the period 1960-1990. Alternative demographic indicators are used, such as period and cohort total fertility rates...[and] mean age [at] childbearing, marriage, and divorce. The analysis includes distribution by order of births. Two age patterns of fertility behaviour are distinguished, one for females aged below 22, and the other for females above that age. The report notes the different impact of pronatal policy actions undertaken in 1968 and in 1973...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30207 Ford, Kathleen; Huffman, Sandra. Relationships between maternal nutrition and fertility in developing countries. In: Fertility transitions, family structure, and population policy, edited by Calvin Goldscheider. 1992. 121-35 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effect of maternal nutrition on fertility in developing countries through a review of recent studies, with a focus on results from a study of chronically malnourished women in a rural area of Bangladesh."
Correspondence: K. Ford, University of Michigan, School of Public Health, Department of Population Planning and International Health, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30208 Fortin, Andree. Choice and constraints: women, demography, and work. [Choix et contraintes: femmes, demographie et travail.] Recherches Sociographiques, Vol. 32, No. 3, Sep-Dec 1991. 441-53, 484 pp. Quebec, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The author reviews papers presented at a symposium held in 1990 in Quebec, Canada, entitled Women and Demographic Questions. The focus of the symposium was on women's roles in the relationship between productivity and reproduction. The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: A. Fortin, Universite Laval, Departement de Sociologie, Cite Universitaire, Quebec, Quebec G1K 7P4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30209 Freedman, Ronald; Blanc, Ann K. Fertility transition: an update. International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 2, Jun 1992. 44-50, 72 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"This article uses United Nations (UN) data to review the course of the fertility transition since the mid-1960s for less developed countries as a whole, for major regions and individual large countries. We then examine some specific contributions of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) toward defining and understanding the recent path of fertility decline." The authors conclude that "fertility in the developing world declined by almost one-third between the period 1965-1970 and the period 1980-1985. This decline represents close to one-half the difference between the fertility rate in 1965-1970 and replacement-level fertility....As fertility has decreased, declines have also occurred in the number of years between a woman's first birth and her last birth and in the number of years the average woman spends caring for small children."
Correspondence: R. Freedman, University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1070. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30210 Galloway, Patrick R.; Hammel, Eugene A.; Lee, Ronald D. Fertility decline in Prussia 1875 to 1910: a pooled cross-section time-series analysis. Program in Population Research Working Paper, No. 33, Jun 1992. 36 pp. University of California, Institute of International Studies, Program in Population Research: Berkeley, California. In Eng.
The authors examine the fertility decline in Germany using data for 407 Kreis, or small local areas, in Prussia from 1875 to 1910. Data are from the Prussian Statistical Bureau, and the analytic method involved uses a pooled cross-section time-series approach with fixed effects. "Our analysis suggests that inferences drawn from previous research have resulted in an unwarranted rejection of the importance of economic factors, and over-emphasis of cultural or traditional factors. While cultural proxies may be associated with fertility level, they contribute little to the explanation of fertility decline. Economic factors, especially the increase in females employed in non-traditional occupations, the growth of financial institutions, the development of transportation-communications infrastructure, and improvements in education, are the forces which drove fertility decline in 19th century Prussia."
Correspondence: University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30211 Goldscheider, Calvin. Fertility transitions, family structure, and population policy. Brown University Studies in Population and Development, ISBN 0-8133-8535-0. LC 92-19. 1992. xix, 283, [2] pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This volume focuses on fertility and family transitions in selected Third World countries, exploring critical aspects of the relationship between population and development. The essays examine population processes as they unfold and develop over time, highlighting the need to go beyond economic explanations and identifying the priorities among social, structural and cultural factors." Sections are included on historical fertility transitions, transitions in Asia, women and family structure, and population policy and development planning.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Westview Press, 5500 Central Avenue, Boulder, CO 80301-2847. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30212 Greene, Margaret E. Marriage choice and fertility in Brazil. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 965-79 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"This paper attempts a descriptive characterization of formal and informal marriage in Brazil with regard to fertility....Combining the findings from Brazil's 1986 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the 1984 National Household Survey (PNAD), I look at the complementary factors these sources cover (marital instability, preferences, birth control use, and other factors). This research also refers to fieldwork to augment the evidence from survey data on the relationship of type of marriage to fertility." Among the findings the author notes that "the overall level of fertility within informal marriages is lower than in formal marriages...."
Correspondence: M. E. Greene, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30213 Greenough, Paul. Inhibited conception and women's agency: a comment on one aspect of Dyson's "On the demography of South Asian famines" Health Transition Review, Vol. 2, No. 1, Apr 1992. 101-5 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
The author comments on Dyson's review of the demography of nineteenth- and twentieth-century South Asian famines, with a focus on the lowered fertility during those periods. He critically examines Dyson's view that "altered reproductive behaviour during famine may be something that women help make happen instead of having forced upon them."
For the work by T. Dyson, published in 1991, see 57:20657 and 30667.
Correspondence: P. Greenough, Heidelberg University, South Asia Institute, 6900 Heidelberg 1, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30214 Guest, Philip; Chamratrithirong, Aphichat. The social context of fertility decline in Thailand. In: Fertility transitions, family structure, and population policy, edited by Calvin Goldscheider. 1992. 67-99 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The primary task of this paper is to formulate models of fertility decline which incorporate measures of the decision making environment as well as the characteristics of individuals or couples. The paper starts with a description of the fertility transition and then tests multilevel models of fertility levels and fertility decline." Data are from the 1970 and 1980 censuses of Thailand.
Correspondence: P. Guest, Australian National University, Department of Demography, GPO 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30215 Hailemariam, Assefa. Fertility levels and trends in Arsi and Shoa regions of Central Ethiopia. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 23, No. 4, Oct 1991. 387-400 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"Levels and trends of fertility in the Arsi and Shoa regions of Central Ethiopia are examined, using data from the 1986 Population, Health and Nutrition baseline survey of the Ministry of Health of Ethiopia....Total fertility of six children per woman in the late 1960s increased to eight children per woman in the early 1980s, then declined to seven children per woman in the mid-1980s. Urban fertility declined by a substantial amount during the 15 years before the survey while rural fertility increased during the same period. The implications of high fertility are considered."
Correspondence: A. Hailemariam, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Population Studies, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30216 Inaba, Hisashi. A dynamic model for populations reproduced by first marriage. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 47, No. 4, Jan 1992. 15-34 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Using data for Japan, the author analyzes "the effect of nuptiality and of marital fertility [on population trends and constructs] a population model in which childbearing occurs only within first marriage....First, we can prove that...we can construct a stable population theory based on nuptiality and marital fertility....Next..., we investigate the effect of [the age shift in first marriage patterns on total fertility rates], since delay of marriage has been thought to be one of [the] major causes for long-term fertility decline in Japan. We conclude that although [the age shift in first marriage patterns] could decrease Japanese fertility, its effect seems to be insufficient to induce such rapid fertility decline as is observed recently in Japan."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30217 Jozwiak, Janina. Modelling demographic and socio-economic determinants of fertility in Poland. In: Essays on population economics in memory of Alfred Sauvy, edited by Giuseppe Gaburro and Dudley L. Poston. 1991. 35-48 pp. Casa Editrice Dott. Antonio Milani [CEDAM]: Padua, Italy. In Eng.
"The paper presents models which are aimed at determining demographic, economic and social factors influencing fertility of the female population in Poland. Two approaches from macro and micro [perspectives] have been discussed. Analysis from the macro perspective...[reveals] factors explaining fertility level and distribution for the aggregate female population. [The] micro approach enables analyzing determinants of individual women's decision for bearing children....The analysis of determinants of timing of births confirmed [the] adequacy of the outcomes which resulted from the macro-level approach." Data are for a sample of women surveyed in the Maternity Inquiry '84 who had given birth that year.
Correspondence: J. Jozwiak, Central School of Planning and Statistics, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30218 Kaloyanov, Todor. Fertility determinants. [Faktorna obuslovenost na plodovitostta.] Naselenie, No. 2, 1992. 39-48 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Factors affecting fertility in Bulgaria are analyzed using data from the 1965, 1975, and 1985 censuses. Some consideration is also given to the methodologies used in the analysis.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30219 Kim, Doo-Sub. Sociodemographic determinants of the fertility transition in Korea. In: Fertility transitions, family structure, and population policy, edited by Calvin Goldscheider. 1992. 45-66 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In this paper, the Korean demographic transition is divided into five stages according to the level of fertility, mortality and migration [beginning in 1910]. The main objective is to develop explanations of why and how Korea passed through the fertility transition....Major factors which influenced the components of population growth are explored. The analysis of the inter-relationship between mortality and fertility in the process of the transition is provided. Attention is also focused on whether migration can be incorporated into the demographic transition." The geographical focus is on Korea as a whole up to 1945, and on South Korea from 1945 to the present.
Correspondence: D.-S. Kim, Hanyang University, Department of Sociology, 17 Haengdang-dong, Sungdong-gu, Seoul 133, Republic of Korea. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30220 Kouaouci, Ali. Trends and factors affecting Algerian birth rates between 1970 and 1986. [Tendances et facteurs de la natalite algerienne entre 1970 et 1986.] Population, Vol. 47, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1992. 327-51 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The rate of natural increase is reviewed for Algeria. "Based on data from 1970...and 1986 [surveys], this article attempts to emphasize the impact of various factors on birth rates (structure, proportions of marriages and legitimate births) and intermediate fertility variables (breast-feeding, contraception, abortion and sterility) on the differences in the levels and trends observed both in space (rural/urban) and time (1970/1986)."
Correspondence: A. Kouaouci, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30221 Leasure, J. William. The historical decline of fertility in Eastern Europe. European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 8, No. 1, 1992. 47-75 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"I test the hypothesis that the growth of autonomy was the factor responsible for the decline of marital fertility in eight Eastern European countries. By growth of autonomy I mean increased control over one's political, personal, religious, economic and reproductive life. This increased control was manifested in revolutions, democratic political reforms, nationalist movements and declining marital fertility. The political reforms were the result of the growth of autonomy but they also accelerated the dissemination of these new ideas among the populace contributing to further growth of autonomy. My hypothesis is generally supported by the historical data." The countries included in the analysis are Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Yugoslavia.
Correspondence: J. W. Leasure, San Diego State University, Department of Economics, San Diego, CA 92182-0379. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30222 Leete, Richard. Fertility trends and prospects in East and South-east Asian countries and implications for policies and programmes. Population Research Leads, No. 39, 1991. 17 pp. U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]: Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
Fertility patterns and projections in selected countries in eastern and southeastern Asia are examined and compared. The impact of political and socioeconomic changes is assessed. Topics covered include marriage patterns, female labor force participation and its effect on fertility, and social policy development. Population policies, family planning programs, and contraception and their roles in the fertility transition in Asia are discussed. Data are from official sources.
Correspondence: U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, Population Information Section, United Nations Building, Rajdamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30223 Lesthaeghe, R. Beyond economic reductionism: the transformation of the reproductive regimes in France and Belgium in the 18th and 19th centuries. In: Fertility transitions, family structure, and population policy, edited by Calvin Goldscheider. 1992. 1-44 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author describes social and political changes in France and Belgium during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and their effects on nuptiality and marital fertility trends. The need to incorporate sociopolitical factors into analyses that emphasize the economic determinants of fertility and nuptiality is stressed.
Correspondence: R. Lesthaeghe, Vrije Universitet Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30224 Lindenberg, Siegwart. Social approval, fertility and female labour market. In: Female labour market behaviour and fertility: a rational-choice approach, edited by Jacques J. Siegers, Jenny de Jong-Gierveld, and Evert van Imhoff. 1991. 32-58 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"In this paper, an attempt was made to introduce some traditional sociological insights, especially about the importance of social approval, into the discussion of fertility and female labour market behaviour in such a way, that the translation to the economic model building approach would be possible...." The author presents "arguments for the reorientation of some bridge assumptions found in the economic approach to fertility and female labour market behaviour, especially the one about quantity and quality. The emphasis is on 'reorientation' rather than on presenting a fully-fledged theory of fertility and female labour market behaviour....Work organization will have to attract an increasing part of the labour force by offering the opportunity for behavioural confirmation. If governance structures adapt to provide just that, they in turn will increase female labour market participation and lower fertility."
Correspondence: S. Lindenberg, Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, Vakgroep Sociologie/ICS, Grote Rozenstraat 31, 9712 TG Groningen, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

58:30225 Lucas, David. Fertility and family planning in southern and central Africa. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 23, No. 3, May-Jun 1992. 145-58 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Southern Africa comprises a zone where the total fertility rate is below 6 births per woman. To the north is a ring of countries with higher fertility and relatively low contraceptive prevalence rates....This article attempts to identify some reasons why southern Africa has begun its fertility transition while central Africa has not."
Correspondence: D. Lucas, Australian National University, National Centre for Development Studies, Graduate Studies in Demography, GPO Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30226 McNicoll, Geoffrey. Changing fertility patterns and fertility policies in the third world. Working Papers in Demography, No. 32, 1991. 37 pp. Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography and Sociology: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
The author analyzes changes in fertility trends and policies in developing countries. Factors considered include data collection, regional fertility patterns, explanations and interpretations, and the efficacy of fertility policies.
Correspondence: Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography and Sociology, P.O. Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30227 Menahem, Georges; Le Bras, Herve; Leridon, Henri; Vallin, Jacques; Langaney, Andre. What are current population trends in France? [Comment evolue la population francaise?] Recherche, Vol. 21, No. 224, 1990. 1,106-15 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This selection of short articles by individual authors is devoted to the debate that took place in France in 1990 concerning future population trends. Specifically, it was about whether researchers at the Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques (INED) were, for ideological reasons, concentrating too much on the threat to the country posed by a hypothesized decline in fertility.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

58:30228 Morocco. Direction de la Statistique. Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Demographiques [CERED] (Rabat, Morocco). Fertility and household standard of living: a new look. [Fecondite et niveau de vie des menages: un nouveau regard.] Mar 1992. 50 pp. Rabat, Morocco. In Fre.
The relationship between household expenditure and fertility in Morocco is examined using data from the 1984-1985 National Survey on Consumption and Household Expenditure (ENCDM). The results indicate that fertility declines as household expenditure increases. Female education and economic activity appear to be the primary determinants associated with lower fertility.
Correspondence: Direction de la Statistique, Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Demographiques, B.P. 178, Charii Maa El Ainain, Rabat, Morocco. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30229 Murphy, M. Economic models of fertility in post-war Britain--a conceptual and statistical re-interpretation. Population Studies, Vol. 46, No. 2, Jul 1992. 235-58 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author evaluates economic models of fertility in Great Britain since World War II. "The 'New Home Economics' theory is described briefly, and Leibenstein's conclusion in 1974 that empirical tests of the model have been unsuccessful is re-assessed and found to be confirmed for the case of some widely cited econometric studies in which macrolevel time-series data are used. The pitfalls in formulating, fitting and interpreting such models are examined, and it is argued that the sorts of explanations which have been used to dismiss alternative explanations of post-war fertility trends are simplistic and invalid....It is concluded that progress will only be made by a fruitful dialogue between various social science disciplines, together with improved data sources and careful empirical studies."
Correspondence: M. Murphy, London School of Economics and Political Science, Population Studies Department, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30230 Norden, R. H. Population growth with variable family size. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1992. 233-58 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
"The Sharpe-Lotka continuous time deterministic model of population growth is developed to take account of some possible forms of mother-daughter fertility association....Model specific results relating the intergenerational fertility effect to the long term population growth rate and magnitude are established. The quantitative implications of the theory are illustrated by a consideration of a general bilinear form of A and in this context numerical results illustrating the finite time growth and also the long term distribution of fertility levels in the stable female population are obtained. In particular, it is shown that different fertility specific subpopulations can coexist indefinitely."
Correspondence: R. H. Norden, St. Wulstans, Abbey Road, Chilcompton, Bath BA3 4HY, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30231 Odedokun, M. O. Fertility-infant mortality interrelationships and the quality of life: an empirical study. Development Policy Review, Vol. 9, No. 4, Dec 1991. 391-412 pp. Newbury Park, California/London, England. In Eng.
The author applies a simultaneous equations model to data from 40 developed and developing countries to determine the interrelationships between fertility and infant mortality and their combined effect on quality of life. "The following empirical results can be summarized: There is overwhelming evidence that the fertility rate has a positive effect on the infant mortality rate in most of the countries, slightly more so in the developing countries. While there is a positive causation running from infant mortality to fertility rates in most of the countries, this phenomenon is more pronounced in the developed...countries. Mutual causation between the fertility and infant mortality rates characterizes most of the countries...[and] the replacement effect of a lost child or infant is greater if the loss affects a male than if it affects a female...."
Correspondence: M. O. Odedokun, University of Ilorin, Department of Economics, PMB 1515, Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

58:30232 Pakistan. National Institute of Population Studies [NIPS] (Islamabad, Pakistan); Institute for Resource Development/Macro International. Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS] (Columbia, Maryland). Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, 1990/1991. Jul 1992. xxiv, 292 pp. Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
This is the final report from the 1990-1991 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, which covered a nationally representative sample of 7,193 households and was carried out as part of the DHS program. In addition to chapters on the survey and its methodology, the report includes sections on fertility, knowledge and use of family planning, family planning attitudes, proximate determinants of fertility, family size preferences, infant and child mortality, maternal and child health, and infant nutrition. Results of a survey of 1,350 husbands are also presented.
Correspondence: Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Suite 4000, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30233 Palmore, James A.; Singarimbun, Masri. The conflicting effects of delayed marriage and declining divorce rates on cumulative fertility in Indonesia. Asian and Pacific Population Forum, Vol. 6, No. 1, Spring 1992. 5-14, 25-6 pp. Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
"In this study we first review recent marriage patterns and trends [including age at marriage and the divorce rate] in Indonesia and consider the effects of the marriage variables on fertility. Next, we look at the relationship between the marriage variables and a variety of socioeconomic factors that influence marriage behavior and also consider the net effects of the marriage variables on fertility, controlling for appropriate socioeconomic factors. Finally, we discuss the interrelationships between marriage patterns and contraceptive use....[Data are from] the 1987 National Indonesia Contraceptive Prevalence Survey...."
Correspondence: J. A. Palmore, University of Hawaii, Department of Sociology, 2444 Dole Street, Honolulu, HI 96822. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30234 Pan, Xiqun; Wang, Ruiyu; Zhang, Pu. Analysis of the marriage and fertility survey of Yi minority women in the fringe areas of Liangshan mountain. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1991. 157-66 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Results and analysis of a 1987 survey of the minority Yi populations of two townships that were recently incorporated into the city of Panzhihua, China, are presented. The authors compare the 1987 survey with one undertaken in 1982 to determine the influence of urbanization on traditional marriage and fertility patterns.
Correspondence: X. Pan, Sichuan University, Minority Research Institute, Jiuyanqiao, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30235 Paradysz, Jan. Female fertility in Poland: a methodological and cognitive study. [Reprodukcja ludnosci w Polsce: studium metodologiczno-poznawcze.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 312, 1990. 284 pp. Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Some methodological issues concerning the study of fertility in Poland are addressed. Separate consideration is given to longitudinal, cross-sectional, and cohort analyses. The availability and quality of the data sources are also discussed. Some comparisons are made with fertility patterns in Czechoslovakia and France.
Correspondence: Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Institut Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, Paris, France.

58:30236 Pathak, K. B.; Pandey, Arvind. Application of a stochastic model to ascertain the truncation bias and systematic component of variation in closed birth interval. Sankhya: Indian Journal of Statistics, Series B, Vol. 52, No. 3, 1990. 261-70 pp. Calcutta, India. In Eng.
"In this paper an attempt is made to estimate the truncation bias in the mean length of closed birth interval caused by the termination of observations after [a] certain time, through the application of a stochastic model based on certain simplified assumptions. The approach is further evolved to determine the relative contributions of...chance and systematic components to the variance of closed birth interval when the fecundability parameter follows a priori distribution. Some numerical results have also been presented for the purpose of illustration."
Correspondence: K. B. Pathak, International Institute for Population Sciences, Govandi Station Road, Deonar, Bombay 400 088, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30237 Poedjastoeti, Sri; Hatmadji, Sri H. Fertility trends in Indonesia: an analysis of preferences. [Penurunan fertilitas di Indonesia: suatu analisis preferensi fertilitas.] Majalah Demografi Indonesia/Indonesian Journal of Demography, Vol. 18, No. 36, Dec 1991. 103-23 pp. Jakarta, Indonesia. In Ind. with sum. in Eng.
"This analysis begins with a presentation of a summary of levels and trends of fertility. Selected factors affecting fertility are also addressed. Then data from the National Indonesia Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (NICPS) carried out as part of the Demographic and Health Surveys program in 1987 are used to investigate the extent of fertility planning among Indonesian women, and the extent to which the plan is being implemented. Differentials in fertility intentions are also studied."
Correspondence: S. Poedjastoeti, Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Suite 4000, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30238 Rao, K. Vaninadha; Murty, K. S. Covariates of progression to third birth in Canada. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 435-40 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
Data from the 1984 Canadian Fertility Survey are analyzed for determinants of third births. A model to estimate the progression to such births is then applied.
Correspondence: K. V. Rao, Bowling Green State University, Department of Sociology, Bowling Green, OH 43403. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30239 Reinis, Kia I. The impact of the proximate determinants of fertility: evaluating Bongaarts's and Hobcraft and Little's methods of estimation. Population Studies, Vol. 46, No. 2, Jul 1992. 309-26 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author evaluates Bongaarts's and Hobcraft and Little's methods of estimating the impact of the proximate determinants of fertility. "Since we cannot observe what the methods estimate (i.e. fertility in the absence of the inhibiting factors), reproductive histories of a population of women are simulated to learn what the quantities are that the methods can only estimate....When fertility behaviour is random, both methods work well; however, under more realistic conditions the methods go awry. Neither method works well when women employ stopping behaviour once they have achieved their desired family size. While the simulations do not attempt to incorporate the innumerable complexities of fertility behaviours, the incorporation of the simplest family-building strategy leads to the unambiguous conclusion that the methods yield poor estimates of the fertility-reducing impacts of marriage delay, contraceptive use, and induced abortions." The author uses the methods to estimate the fertility-reducing impact of induced abortion in Shanghai, China, and tests the methods using simulated populations based on data for the United States, Bangladesh, and China.
For the works by Bongaarts (1978) and by Hobcraft and Little (1984), see 44:4265 and 50:20261.
Correspondence: K. I. Reinis, Demographic and Health Surveys, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Suite 4000, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30240 Sardon, Jean-Paul. Fertility trends in France over the last 50 years. [L'evolution de la fecondite en France depuis un demi-siecle.] INED Dossiers et Recherches, No. 31, Jun 1990. 98 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
The author analyzes fertility trends and their determinants in France over the last 50 years. He notes that France is unique both in the timing of its demographic transition and in its efforts to develop a pronatalist family policy in response to the decline in fertility.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Institut National d'Etudes Economiques, Paris, France.

58:30241 Siegers, Jacques J.; de Jong-Gierveld, Jenny; van Imhoff, Evert. Female labour market behaviour and fertility: a rational-choice approach. ISBN 3-540-53896-8. 1991. viii, 301 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"This volume contains the papers presented at the conference 'Female Labour Market Behaviour and Fertility: Preferences, Restrictions, Behaviour,' held in April 1989 at the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute in The Hague....It was the purpose of the workshop to use the rational-choice framework as an engine to integrate the contributions of the participants who represented the fields of demography, econometrics, economics, psychology and sociology. In line with this purpose, the participants were asked to approach the subject from their own discipline in such a way that the different elements of the 'preferences-restrictions-behaviour' scheme were filled. The aim was to contribute to the construction of a sound foundation for empirical analyses with the aid of surveys, to the further development of theories and empirical analytical methods, and to the evaluation of policy measures." The geographical scope is worldwide, with a focus on developed countries.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Springer-Verlag, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

58:30242 Siegers, Jacques J. Towards a better understanding of the relationship between female labour market behaviour and fertility. In: Female labour market behaviour and fertility: a rational-choice approach, edited by Jacques J. Siegers, Jenny de Jong-Gierveld, and Evert van Imhoff. 1991. 265-74 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
The author "presents concise evaluations of the economic approaches to labour supply and fertility, respectively. He also sketches how within the rational-choice framework, the 'preferences-restrictions-behaviour' scheme can be used as a basis for an interdisciplinary analysis of the relationship between female labour market behaviour and fertility." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: J. J. Siegers, Rijksuniversiteit Utrecht, Economisch Instituut/CIAV, Domplein 24, 3512 JE Utrecht, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

58:30243 Singh, K. K.; Bhattacharya, B. N.; Suchindran, C. M. A probability distribution for last closed birth interval. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 441-6 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"We attempt to derive a distribution of last closed birth interval occurring during a specific period. The model is not parity dependent....[It] is illustrated with the data collected from two Indian fertility surveys." The surveys were conducted in 1978 and 1987-1988 among rural populations in eastern Uttar Pradesh.
Correspondence: K. K. Singh, University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center, Chapel Hill, NC 27516. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30244 Slablab, Ali; Belloumi, Ahmed; Seklani, Mahmoud; Moreland, Scott. The determinants of fertility in Tunisia, 1966-1975-1984-1988. [Les determinants de la fecondite en Tunisie 1966-1975-1984-1988.] 1990. 120 pp. Office National de la Famille et de la Population: Tunis, Tunisia; Research Triangle Institute: Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. In Fre.
This report uses the RAPID III model to analyze changes in fertility determinants in Tunisia over the period 1966-1988. Factors considered include geographic, economic, demographic, and sociocultural variables. Data are from a number of surveys conducted during this period and from the census. The results indicate that the extent of salaried employment for women, which is in turn linked to women's educational status, is a critical factor affecting fertility.
Correspondence: Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Location: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, Paris, France.

58:30245 Somawat, G. S. The estimation of fertility from incomplete birth registration data for Indian towns and cities. Demography India, Vol. 19, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1990. 279-87 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The main objective of this paper is to make an attempt to derive fertility measures as well as trends from incomplete birth registration data [for India] especially for the period 1961-1970 for which we have very little knowledge about the Indian towns and cities and the period 1970-1981 for which estimates are available from Sample Registration system....The first section of the paper provides a methodology for estimation of fertility, data requirements and illustration of the application of the method. The second section deals with the derivation of fertility measures for the period 1961-1981 as well as trends in towns and cities. The final section gives discussion on the results obtained by the method...."
Correspondence: G. S. Somawat, Ministry of Agriculture, Directorate of Extension, Extension Education Institute, Nilokheri 132 117, Haryana, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30246 Sprague, Alison. An empirical analysis of birth spacing. Applied Economics Discussion Paper, No. 103, Nov 1990. 46 pp. University of Oxford, Institute of Economics and Statistics: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author examines the effect of earnings potential on fertility. "Retrospective information on married women [in the United Kingdom] from the 1980 Women and Employment Survey is transformed into duration data for first, second and third births. Logistic hazard models are estimated for the full sample and cohort groups. Covariates entered are age, potential earnings and social class variables. The results suggest that high potential earnings delay childbirth, shorten the interval between first and second birth but have no effect on the risk of a third birth. Age effects are positive for all durations but social class effects are found for the second birth model only."
Correspondence: University of Oxford, Institute of Economics and Statistics, St. Cross Building, Manor Road, Oxford OX1 3UL, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30247 Stocklin, Daniel. A note on birth statistics for China. [Note sur la statistique des naissances en Chine.] Population, Vol. 47, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1992. 223-33 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author uses newly available data and other official published sources to reexamine the birth rate in China in the 1980s and compare it with previous levels.
Correspondence: D. Stocklin, Universite de Fribourg, 1700 Fribourg, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30248 Sugareva, Marta. Fertility in Bulgaria--recent trends and estimates. [Razhdaemostta v Balgariya--savremenni tendentsii i otsenki.] Naselenie, No. 1, 1992. 56-72 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Results are presented from an analysis of fertility trends in Bulgaria, jointly carried out by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and the Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques. For women born between 1945 and 1970, fertility remained constant at just fewer than two children per woman. The impact of pronatalist policies enacted in 1968 and 1973 is discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30249 Szukicsne Serfozo, Klara. Fertility and family size in Hungary in the twentieth century. [A termekenyseg koncentraciojanak alakulasa Magyarorszagon a XX. szazadban.] Demografia, Vol. 35, No. 1, 1992. 73-100 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng.
"The study analyzes the concentration of fertility [in Hungary], based on the completed fertility of female birth cohorts. The basis of the calculations was the distribution by number of children of women aged 40-44 and 45-49 at the date of the [1980 and 1990] population censuses....The results show that the distribution of women by number of children and the proportions of children born in families of various sizes have both changed significantly with the decrease of fertility...[and that] the level of concentration has also decreased."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30250 Turchi, Boone A. How economics, psychology, and sociology might produce a unified theory of fertility and labour force participation. In: Female labour market behaviour and fertility: a rational-choice approach, edited by Jacques J. Siegers, Jenny de Jong-Gierveld, and Evert van Imhoff. 1991. 237-62 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
The author finds that "the microeconomic model as usually employed can serve a potentially valuable role as an integrating framework for the interdisciplinary study of fertility and [female] labour force participation behaviour, by integrating economic as well as psychological and sociological variables to produce a comprehensive model. The model presented...reflects the author's conviction that the fertility-labour force participation relationship must be treated as short run behaviour conditioned by long run plans."
Correspondence: B. A. Turchi, University of North Carolina, Department of Economics, CB# 3305, Gardner Hall, Chapel Hill, NC 27599. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

58:30251 Vlassoff, Carol. Progress and stagnation: changes in fertility and women's position in an Indian village. Population Studies, Vol. 46, No. 2, Jul 1992. 195-212 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper compares women's status, fertility, and contraceptive use in 1975 and 1987 among married women aged 15-26 in a Maharashtra village [in India]. Changes in women's position over the 12 years were both positive and negative. Although education and age at marriage had increased, the 1987 cohort was more conservative in many respects. Fertility appeared to be declining, and women were increasingly completing their families quickly and then undergoing sterilization. However, the decline in fertility goals was not primarily due to changes in women's status but to the active sterilization campaign in the community. The one constraint on fertility limitation was the need for sons, and in this some indicators of women's status...made a significant difference."
Correspondence: C. Vlassoff, World Health Organization, Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30252 Werschler, Timothy; Halli, Shiva. The seasonality of births in Canada: a comparison with the northern United States. Population and Environment, Vol. 14, No. 1, Sep 1992. 85-94 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper presents evidence that there are substantial differences in the seasonal birth patterns of Canada and the northern United States. The seasonal birth pattern in Canada is characterized by a birth peak in April-May, and a trough in December-January. The birth pattern in the northern U.S. is characterized by a trough in April-May, and a peak in August-September. The influence of climate on the birth patterns is explored in an attempt to explain the discrepancies. In both Canada and the United States, there is an inverse relationship between temperature and conceptions during the summer months. The study concludes that variation in temperature alone cannot explain the discrepancy between the birth patterns of southern Canada and the northern United States."
Correspondence: S. Halli, University of Manitoba, Department of Sociology, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 2N2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30253 Willekens, Frans J. Understanding the interdependence between parallel careers. In: Female labour market behaviour and fertility: a rational-choice approach, edited by Jacques J. Siegers, Jenny de Jong-Gierveld, and Evert van Imhoff. 1991. 11-31 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
The author examines the relationship between fertility and female labor force participation. "The aim is to explore the nature of the interdependencies between parallel careers....Recent research findings on the interdependence between fertility and labour force participation are reviewed....In order to integrate the various research findings in a common framework we suggest a process approach....A main thesis [of this paper] is that relations between variables pertaining to fertility and employment are mediated by personality traits, in particular the career orientations. The theory is applied to the study of the fertility-employment interaction...." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: F. J. Willekens, Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

58:30254 Yadava, R. C.; Pandey, A.; Saxena, N. C. Estimation of parity progression ratios from the truncated distribution of closed and open birth intervals. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 110, No. 2, Jul 1992. 181-90 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A procedure to estimate parity progression ratios in a population from the truncated distribution of open and closed birth intervals is presented. The approach is quite simple in computation and data needs. It does not require any separate data on age at last birth to the women of completed fertility as in earlier methods. The procedure is illustrated with an observed set of data [for India]."
Correspondence: R. C. Yadava, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221 005, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

58:30255 Zabin, Laurie S.; Hirsch, Marilyn B.; Emerson, Mark R.; Raymond, Elizabeth. To whom do inner-city minors talk about their pregnancies? Adolescents' communication with parents and parent surrogates. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 24, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1992. 148-54, 173 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A study of 334 black, urban teenagers who sought pregnancy tests in two Baltimore [Maryland] clinics in 1985-1986 explored communication between the teenagers and their parents or parent surrogates before the pregnancy test visit and, among those whose test results were positive, before the final pregnancy outcome decision. Of these young women, 66% had discussed the possibility that they were pregnant with a parent (usually the mother) or parent surrogate before the test; an additional 6% had turned to another adult. At a follow-up interview a year later, 91% of those whose test results had been positive reported that they had consulted a parent or parent surrogate before deciding what to do about the pregnancy, and 4% had confided in another adult. The probability that an adolescent would consult a parent before deciding what to do about her pregnancy was higher if she was younger, if she lived with the parent and if she found the parent easy to talk to."
Correspondence: L. S. Zabin, Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Department of Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30256 Zachariah, K. C. Some comments on the demographic transition in Kerala. Demography India, Vol. 19, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1990. 183-8 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"These comments on the present stage of demographic transition in Kerala [India] are based on a general evaluation of the official demographic and family planning statistics of the state and on the basis of my involvement in two special studies on the determinants of fertility decline in the state." The first study was conducted in 1980; the second is still under way. Aspects discussed include regional differences in population growth, family planning, immunization, social and economic differences in fertility, and education.
Correspondence: K. C. Zachariah, Centre for Development Studies, Prasantanagar Road, Ulloor, Trivandrum 695 011, Kerala State, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30257 Zhang, Rui; Ren, Lizhong; Zhao, Xiaomao. The states of marriage and fertility of women born in the reign of Guangxu of the Qing: a retrospective survey of the states of marriage and fertility of 90-94-year old women in Hebei province. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 3, No. 1, 1991. 1-10 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Results are presented from a retrospective survey conducted among 4,000 women aged 90-94 years who were living in Hebei province, China, in 1980. The survey concerned marriage patterns, including age at marriage; fertility, including maternal age, birth intervals, parity, and age at final parity; and infant mortality. Political and socioeconomic factors affecting these patterns are briefly considered.
Correspondence: R. Zhang, Hebei Normal University, Population Research Institute, Hebei, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30258 Zimmermann, Klaus F.; De New, John P. Labour market restrictions and the role of preferences in family economics. In: Female labour market behaviour and fertility: a rational-choice approach, edited by Jacques J. Siegers, Jenny de Jong-Gierveld, and Evert van Imhoff. 1991. 158-72 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
The authors present "a simple economic model in which labour supply and fertility are jointly determined. They show that labour market conditions are decisive in determining fertility. Using starting values that are rationed with respect to labour, preferences even prove to play no role in determining fertility whatsoever. Furthermore, the authors conjecture that fertility decline is a more likely event in the process of economic growth if labour supply is rationed." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: K. F. Zimmermann, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat Munchen, Seminar fur Arbeits- und Bevolkerungsokonomie, Ludwigstrasse 28 RG, 8000 Munich 40, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

F.2. Differential Fertility

58:30259 Barrere-Maurisson, Marie-Agnes; Marchand, Olivier. Family sociology and statistics. [Sociologie familiale et statistiques.] Population et Societes, No. 269, Jun 1992. [1-3] pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Results of a 1990 survey of French military personnel are presented. The focus is on differential fertility by social class and profession.
Correspondence: M.-A. Barrere-Maurisson, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 15 quai Anatole France, 75700 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30260 Bideau, Alain; Nadalin, Sergio O. Life histories and the demographic analysis of fertility: complementary approaches for a history of social behavior. The example of the Evangelical Lutheran community of Curitiba (1866-1939). ["Histoires de vie" et analyse demographique de la fecondite: approches complementaires pour une histoire du comportement social. L'exemple de la communaute Evangelique Lutherienne de Curitiba (1866-1939).] Annales de Demographie Historique, 1991. 157-71 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
Fertility and marriage patterns of Lutheran European settlers in Brazil in the nineteenth century are described using data for two immigrant women and their progeny. "Three groups of marriages were studied (1866-1894, 1895-1919, 1920-1939), showing the changing attitudes toward sex and procreation....The first group...has a high rate of premarital conceptions and births. A decline in this behavior pattern runs parallel to the assimilation of the immigrants and their descendants into the surrounding Catholic society of Brazil. The second group of marriages reveals a lower rate of fecundity than the first; once the desired number of children was achieved, contraception intervened to prevent further births. And the third group evidently practiced family planning from the earliest years of marriage."
Correspondence: A. Bideau, Universite Lumiere Lyon 2, MRASH, Centre Pierre Leon, URA 223, 86 rue Pasteur, 69365 Lyon Cedex 07, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30261 Billy, John O. G.; Moore, David E. A multilevel analysis of marital and nonmarital fertility in the U.S. Social Forces, Vol. 70, No. 4, Jun 1992. 977-1,011 pp. Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
"This study examines the role of a wide range of community characteristics in determining the risk of married and nonmarried nonblack women having a live birth. We find that context affects the risk of both a marital and nonmarital birth, although the number of contextual influences is greater for nonmarried women. For married women, the factors that affect the likelihood of a birth are: the extent of full-time female labor-force participation, percent white-collar workers, and percent females in the community who are separated or divorced. Contextual factors affecting the risk of an out-of-wedlock birth include: the female unemployment rate; median housing value; percent females separated or divorced; percent females of childbearing age; the sex ratio of the never married population; and the child/woman ratio for women aged 15-24. Almost all these community characteristics operate independently of individual-level characteristics of the woman." Data are from the 1982 U.S. National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle III.
Correspondence: J. O. G. Billy, Battelle-HARC, 4000 N.E. 41st Street, Seattle, WA 98105. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30262 Bouchard, Gerard; Roy, Raymond. Fertility and literacy in the Saguenay and in Quebec in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. [Fecondite et alphabetisation au Saguenay et au Quebec (XIXe-XXe siecles).] Annales de Demographie Historique, 1991. 173-201 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"This paper draws on a data set of 6,623 'completed' reconstituted families relating to the Saguenay (Quebec) population. It aims primarily at measuring the impact of literacy on fertility through the analysis of 16 cohorts of individuals married between 1840 and 1940. The findings clearly establish the need to study separately the pre-transitional period (I) and the transition period...(II). In period I, the most literate couples are more fertile than the less literate. While the latter introduce the first contraceptive behaviors, the former are those who generalize them among the population (period II). Thus, literacy seems to impact in opposite ways, whether period I or period II is considered."
Correspondence: G. Bouchard, Universite du Quebec, Centre Interuniversitaire SOREP, 555 Boulevard de l'Universite, Chicoutimi, Quebec G7H 2B1, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30263 Center for Population Options (Washington, D.C.). Teenage pregnancy and too-early childbearing: public costs, personal consequences. 1992. 45 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This study estimates the economic impact of teen parenting [in the United States]: what it costs America's taxpayers to support families begun when the mother was a teenager. More specifically, it estimates the cost to the federal and selected state and local governments of three major family support programs: Medicaid, AFDC and Food Stamps....Along with calculating the federal costs, we have calculated similar costs for seven states--Florida, Kansas, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Vermont and Wyoming--and two cities--Baltimore and San Francisco." This is the sixth annual study on adolescent pregnancy conducted by the Center for Population Options.
Correspondence: Center for Population Options, 1025 Vermont Avenue NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20005. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30264 Fennelly, Katherine; Cornwell, Gretchen; Casper, Lynne. A comparison of the fertility of Dominican, Puerto Rican and mainland Puerto Rican adolescents. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 24, No. 3, May-Jun 1992. 107-10, 134 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"In this analysis, we use data from surveys of Puerto Rican women living in the continental United States and on the Island of Puerto Rico, and from a survey of women living in the Dominican Republic...to address the following research questions: 1) What is the extent of early childbearing and how does it vary by age? 2) What are the probabilities of early premarital births? and 3) Which factors distinguish women who give birth as adolescents from those who postpone childbearing?...The cumulative hazard rates show that the probability of an early first birth is highest for 15-24-year-old women in the least developed settings--the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. However, Puerto Rican women in New York are the most likely to experience early premarital births. We speculate that for these young women...the probability of a premarital birth is higher because the stigma of premarital sex is reduced in this setting."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1991 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: K. Fennelly, Pennsylvania State University, Population Research Institute, University Park, PA 16802. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30265 Johnson, Nan E.; Zhang, Kai-Ti. Matriarchy, polyandry, and fertility amongst the Mosuos in China. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 23, No. 4, Oct 1991. 499-505 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"A survey of 232 households of the Mosuo minority group in Yunnan Province, People's Republic of China, suggested that polyandrous matriarchy did not raise the birth rate per household, but lowered the community birth rate by restricting many women's chances of marrying. The results imply that tolerance by the National government of polyandry within certain minority groups (e.g. Mosuos and Tibetans) will not prevent but may aid the attainment of zero population growth by China in the twenty-first century."
Correspondence: N. E. Johnson, Michigan State University, Department of Sociology, East Lansing, MI 48824. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30266 Pennington, Renee. Did food increase fertility? Evaluation of !Kung and Herero history. Human Biology, Vol. 64, No. 4, Aug 1992. 497-521 pp. Detroit, Michigan. In Eng.
The effect of food supply on fertility is analyzed using data for the nomadic !Kung foragers of Botswana, a low-fertility population that has recently experienced an increase in fertility rates. "A comparison of !Kung fertility before and after a transition to a more sedentary lifestyle indicates that more food did not increase fertility. An examination of the fertility of neighboring sedentary Bantu-speaking Herero pastoralists during the same period also indicates that...Herero fertility has increased dramatically in recent decades, probably in response to the control of sexually transmitted diseases in northwestern Botswana....The findings presented here suggest that the !Kung benefitted from the transition to a sedentary lifestyle through increases in survivorship of offspring. Substantial decreases in early childhood mortality may have increased !Kung reproductive success by more than 25%."
Correspondence: R. Pennington, University of Wisconsin, Center for Demography and Ecology, 4412 Social Science Building, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706-1393. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30267 Plotnick, Robert D. The effect of attitudes on teenage premarital pregnancy and its resolution. Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper, No. 2, Nov 1991. 42, [10] pp. Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"This study examines the influence of self-esteem, locus of control, and attitudes towards women's family roles and school on the probability of teenage premarital pregnancy and, given a pregnancy, whether it is resolved by abortion, having the birth premaritally or marrying before the birth. The data are drawn from the [U.S.] National Longitudinal Survey of Youth...."
Correspondence: Seattle Population Research Center, c/o University of Washington, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, Department of Sociology DK-40, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30268 Preston-Whyte, Eleanor; Zondi, Maria; Mavundla, Gladys; Gumede, Hilda. Teenage pregnancy, whose problem? Realities and prospects for action in KwaZulu/Natal. Southern African Journal of Demography/Suidelike Afrikaanse Tydskrif vir Demografie, Vol. 3, Jul 1990. 11-20 pp. Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
Determinants of teenage pregnancy among black Africans in Natal Province, South Africa, are examined, with a focus on adolescents' perceptions of the effects of pregnancy. "It will be argued...that there are positive dimensions to early pregnancy which are either neglected, or not fully recognized by the older generation....Notwithstanding the overly critical opinion of their elders, pregnancy seems to many black teenagers an entirely rational strategy to achieve one set of important goals." Consideration is given to cultural influences and to the repercussions of early pregnancy, including the impact on chances of marriage.
Correspondence: E. Preston-Whyte, University of Natal, George V Avenue, Durban 4001, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30269 Quilodran, Julieta. Fertility levels and marriage registers in Mexico. [Niveles de fecundidad y patrones de nupcialidad en Mexico.] ISBN 968-12-0473-5. 1991. 244 pp. El Colegio de Mexico, Centro de Estudios Demograficos y de Desarrollo Urbano: Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
This is an analysis of the relationship between fertility and nuptiality in Mexico using data from the World Fertility Survey and from marriage registers. Topics covered include fertility differentials by place size, regional fertility differentials, differences in type of marital union, and fertility differences by type of union.
Correspondence: Colegio de Mexico, Centro de Estudios Demograficos y de Desarrollo Urbano, Camino al Ajusco 20, Pedregal de Santa Teresa, 10740 Mexico City, DF, Mexico. Location: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, Paris, France.

58:30270 Wadhera, Surinder; Strachan, Jill. Teenage pregnancies, Canada, 1975-1989. [La grossesse a l'adolescence, Canada, 1975-1989.] Health Reports/Rapports sur la Sante, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1991. 327-37 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
Adolescent pregnancy rates in Canada are analyzed and compared by region and pregnancy outcome for the period 1975-1989. The authors also compare adolescent pregnancy and abortion rates with those in other developed countries, including the United States. They find that "the teenage pregnancy rate...declined 17.4% to 44.1 in 1989 from 53.4 in 1975....In 1985, there were 37 pregnancies per 1,000 Canadian females aged 15-19 compared with 95 pregnancies per 1,000 females of the same age in the United States....In 1985, the abortion rate for Canadian teenagers was 14 per 1,000, one-third the U.S. rate of 42 per 1,000."
Correspondence: S. Wadhera, Statistics Canada, Canadian Centre for Health Information, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.3. Sterility and Other Pathology

58:30271 Feaganes, John R. Sterility in early 20th century U.S. population, an application of the beta-geometric distribution. In: American Statistical Association, 1988 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. 1988. 139-44 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"There are two goals of this analysis. First to investigate sterility in the United States in the early twentieth century. Second to apply the methodology described by Weinberg and Gladen (1986) in a demographic setting. The data is from the 1985 current population survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. The analysis will focus on ever married women married between 1920 and 1944 inclusive." The EM algorithm method proposed by Weinberg and Gladen is then compared to their adaptation of a beta-geometric model. "In conclusion the EM algorithm methodology to determine sterility rate in a demographic setting does not work. The beta-geometric model however provides a good fit for the fertility experience, even when the population contains a large sterile subpopulation."
For the article on the beta-geometric model by Clarice R. Weinberg and Beth C. Gladen, published in 1986, see 54:10293.
Correspondence: J. R. Feaganes, University of North Carolina, Department of Biostatistics, CB#7400, Chapel Hill, NC 27514. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30272 Hammerslough, Charles R. Estimating the probability of spontaneous abortion in the presence of induced abortion and vice versa. Public Health Reports, Vol. 107, No. 3, May-Jun 1992. 269-77 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"An integrated approach to estimate the total number of pregnancies that begin in a [U.S.] population during one calendar year and the probability of spontaneous abortion is described. This includes an indirect estimate of the number of pregnancies that result in spontaneous abortions. The method simultaneously takes into account the proportion of induced abortions that are censored by spontaneous abortions and vice versa in order to estimate the true annual number of spontaneous and induced abortions for a population. It also estimates the proportion of pregnancies that women intended to allow to continue to a live birth. The proposed indirect approach derives adjustment factors to make indirect estimates by combining vital statistics information on gestational age at induced abortion (from the 12 States that report to the National Center for Health Statistics) with a life table of spontaneous abortion probabilities."
Correspondence: C. R. Hammerslough, University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30273 Morocco. Direction de la Statistique. Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Demographiques [CERED] (Rabat, Morocco). Infertility: levels and trends. [Infecondite: niveaux et evolution.] Apr 1992. 42 pp. Rabat, Morocco. In Fre.
This study analyzes levels and trends in fertility in Morocco using data from official sources, including the 1982 census and the 1987 national survey of family planning, fertility, and health. It also examines reasons for variations in infertility levels by region, residential characteristics, educational status, and female occupation.
Correspondence: Direction de la Statistique, Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Demographiques, B.P. 178, Charii Maa El Ainain, Rabat, Morocco. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30274 Tesfaghiorghis, Habtemariam. Infecundity and subfertility among the rural population of Ethiopia. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 23, No. 4, Oct 1991. 461-75 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"This study uses demographic survey data on the distribution of children ever born by age group of women to examine the incidence and geographical extent of infecundity and subfertility among the rural population of Ethiopia." Survey data were collected during 1980-1981. The author finds "high levels of infecundity and subfertility, although there was considerable variation by region, ethnicity and age of women. Higher levels of infecundity were geographically concentrated in a broad belt that ran from the south and south-west of the country, across to the north-east. The analyses suggest that infecundity is influenced by ecological factors, more than by ethnicity."
Correspondence: H. Tesfaghiorghis, Australian National University, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.4. Actions and Activities Directly Affecting Fertility

F.4.1. General Fertility Control and Contraception

58:30275 Agung, Igusti N.; Lim, Tjen Sien; Samosir, Omas B. Contraceptive effectiveness in Indonesia. [Dampak relatif pemakaian kontrasepsi.] Majalah Demografi Indonesia/Indonesian Journal of Demography, Vol. 18, No. 36, Dec 1991. 43-61 pp. Jakarta, Indonesia. In Ind. with sum. in Eng.
"Using data from the 1987 National Indonesia Contraceptive Prevalence Survey this paper tries to analyze the impact of using contraception on [the] probability of having a birth relative to not using any contraception. Particular methods of contraception analyzed are Pill, IUD, and Injection. Employing logistic regression, [the] probability of not having a birth can be computed for any method of contraception after adjusting for social, economic, and cultural factors."
Correspondence: I. N. Agung, Universitas Indonesia, Fakultas Ekonomi, Lembaga Demografi, Salemba Raya 4, Jakarta, Indonesia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30276 Asari, V. Gopalakrishnan. Determinants of family planning acceptance and fertility change in Kerala: a study on inter-district variations. Population Research Centre Report Series, No. 91-3, 1991. [35] pp. University of Kerala, Population Research Centre: Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
The impact of various developmental factors on contraceptive acceptance and fertility in Kerala state, India, is explored. Factors examined include infrastructure developments such as the expansion of medical and family planning services and improved roads and transport facilities. Socioeconomic factors including income, occupation, educational status, religion, women's age at marriage, infant mortality, birth rate, and acceptance of sterilization and IUDs are considered. The focus is on differences among the various districts in the state.
Correspondence: University of Kerala, Population Research Centre, Kariavattom, Thiruvananthapuram 695 581, India. Location: East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, HI.

58:30277 Benson, Janie; Leonard, Ann H.; Winkler, Judith; Wolf, Merrill; McLaurin, Katie E. Meeting women's needs for post-abortion family planning: framing the questions. Issues in Abortion Care, No. 2, 1992. iv, 69 pp. International Projects Assistance Services [IPAS]: Carrboro, North Carolina. In Eng.
"Given the lack of understanding of the complex dimensions of post-abortion family planning, this paper reviews what information exists in the literature, brings into the discussion lessons learned from efforts to provide clinical services, and frames questions regarding ways to improve the delivery of these critical services....[It] focuses on the prevention of subsequent unwanted pregnancy while acknowledging that women who have sought abortion have reproductive health needs in addition to contraceptive information and services....The authors stress that expanding access to post-abortion family planning will not obviate the need for safe abortion services." The geographical focus is on developing countries.
Correspondence: International Projects Assistance Services, 303 East Main Street, P.O. Box 100, Carrboro, NC 27510. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30278 Brewster, Karin L.; Billy, John O. G.; Grady, William R. Community influences on the sexual and contraceptive behaviors of adolescent women. Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper, No. 10, May 1990. 29, [19] pp. Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"The present study explores the role of a wide variety of community characteristics in shaping two crucial aspects of adolescent reproductive behavior [in the United States]--the risk of experiencing nonmarital first intercourse during adolescence and contraceptive use-status at that event."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: Seattle Population Research Center, c/o University of Washington, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, Department of Sociology DK-40, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30279 Chesler, Ellen. Woman of valor: Margaret Sanger and the birth control movement in America. ISBN 0-671-60088-5. LC 92-11496. 1992. 639 pp. Simon and Schuster: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
This is a biography of the American birth control pioneer, Margaret Sanger. It attempts "to recapture Sanger's vitality and the intensity of her long struggle to establish the legitimacy of her concerns. It examines both the personal and public dimensions of her life much as she experienced them, layering complicated private struggles and intimate relationships upon larger intellectual and political pursuits." The study is based primarily on papers available in the Library of Congress and at Smith College and on Sanger's personal correspondence.
Correspondence: Simon and Schuster, 1230 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30280 Cochrane, Susan H.; Guilkey, David K. Fertility intentions and access to services as constraints on contraceptive use in Colombia. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,305-28 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to employ a structural model to assess the effects of access on contraceptive use in Colombia....The model examines the effects of the number of currently surviving children on the decision to have additional children and their desired spacing. Fertility intentions are then used as right-hand-side endogenous variables in equations that explain current contraceptive use and choice among methods. The basic policy questions that need to be addressed are the extent to which contraceptive use is constrained by the demand to restrict fertility and to what extent it is constrained by access to services."
Correspondence: S. H. Cochrane, World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30281 Galway, Katrina. Strategic use of DHS data in family planning program development. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 889-96 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
In this article, the author "presents ideas about how DHS data can be used strategically for family planning program development. The first section presents a description of selected family planning program development issues which a strategic analysis of DHS data can address. The second section presents two examples of this type of strategic analysis: 1) to estimate what is an appropriate method mix to move towards; and 2) to estimate what would be the magnitude of the contraceptive program to meet existing fertility preferences--i.e., how many users."
Correspondence: K. Galway, Futures Group, 80 Glastonbury Boulevard, Glastonbury, CT 06033. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30282 Goyal, R. S. Infant mortality, fertility and family planning: an analysis of relationships. Demography India, Vol. 19, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1990. 189-203 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
The "present paper is an attempt to assess the effect of infant mortality on...fertility behaviour and family planning practices. The study drew on data from a family planning evaluation study conducted by the author in Punjab (India), wherein 439 eligible couples (non-contraceptors) and 145 family planning acceptors (of sterilization and IUD) were surveyed....[It is found that] the eligible couples have experienced higher pregnancy wastage due to still births and abortions and higher infant mortality, which is positively associated with their fertility level. The family planning acceptors have not only experienced fewer infant deaths, but their fertility level is also higher than the eligible couples."
Correspondence: R. S. Goyal, Panjab University, Department of Sociology, Population Research Centre, Chandigarh 160 014, Union Territory, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30283 Hammerslough, Charles R. Proximity to contraceptive services and fertility transition in rural Kenya. International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 2, Jun 1992. 54-8 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Data from the 1989 Kenya Community Survey (KCS), which revisited 260 of the rural communities included in the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS), show a swift rise in access to family planning services in rural Kenya during the 1980s. As the decade began, only 26% of the rural population could reach a source of family planning within three hours; by 1989, 87% could do so. This increase in access to services coincided with the beginning of the rise in contraceptive prevalence. Multivariate analyses of linked KCS and KDHS data reveal that although contraceptive availability coincided with growth in demand for fertility control, it did not initiate Kenya's fertility transition. The greater availability of services, however, has accelerated the fertility transition by increasing the proportion of users who rely on highly effective clinical methods."
Correspondence: C. R. Hammerslough, University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1070. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30284 Hammerslough, Charles R. Proximity to contraceptive services and fertility transition in rural Kenya. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,287-304 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"This paper examines the role of contraceptive availability, as measured by proximity to family planning services, in either initiating or accelerating Kenya's fertility transition. It also demonstrates the potential usefulness of re-visiting rural DHS sample clusters to collect community data in group interviews of residents, including contraceptive availability information. The paper supplements the 1989 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey data on rural women with...the [1989] Kenya Community Survey...[and with] 13 group interviews with rural and urban women's self-help groups, conducted by the author in early 1991."
Correspondence: C. R. Hammerslough, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30285 Hubacher, David; Potter, Linda. Comparative look at pill compliance in four DHS countries. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,395-409 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"This paper uses data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) project to highlight mistakes pill users make, the extent of those mistakes, the characteristics of women making them, and whether such errors are consistent across countries." The countries examined are Botswana, Egypt, Indonesia, and Zimbabwe.
Correspondence: D. Hubacher, Family Health International, P.O. Box 13950, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30286 Klepinger, Daniel H.; Grady, William R. A joint model of contraceptive choice and frequency of intercourse: implications for estimates of contraceptive use-failure. Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper, No. 7, Mar 1991. 27, [9] pp. Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"We develop a joint model of the decision-making process governing both sexual and contraceptive behavior and test this model against the more common assumption of independent decision processes....We use the results...to develop a measure of coital frequency that serves as an appropriate control for selection bias in a hazard model of contraceptive use-failure....We will [also] investigate the impact of using women versus intervals of method use as the units of analysis in models of contraceptive use-failure." The model is tested using U.S. data.
This paper was originally presented at the 1991 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: Seattle Population Research Center, c/o University of Washington, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, Department of Sociology DK-40, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30287 Lerman, Charles. The effect of migration on contraceptive usage and service point choice in Indonesia. In: Fertility transitions, family structure, and population policy, edited by Calvin Goldscheider. 1992. 137-54 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author investigates the relationships between internal migration and family planning choices in Indonesia using data on 10,919 currently married women who participated in the 1987 National Indonesia Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. Differences between rural and urban dwellers and between migrants and nonmigrants are explored. Policy implications are also discussed.
Correspondence: C. Lerman, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Urban Volunteer Program, Bangladesh, GPO Box 128, Dhaka 2, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30288 Lesthaeghe, R.; Verleye, G.; Jolly, C. Female education and factors affecting fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa. IPD Working Paper, No. 1992-2, 1992. 31, [22] pp. Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Interuniversity Programme in Demography: Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
"In this paper, we shall take a closer look at the determinants of contraceptive use [including women's educational status] in sub-Saharan [Africa] using primarily the data from the WFS and DHS rounds. The WFS describes the situation during the period 1978-82 and the DHS covers the years 1986-1989...." Consideration is given to the impact of demographic, cultural, and socioeconomic factors on fertility. "The present analysis is performed at the level of regions within these sub-Saharan nations...."
Correspondence: Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Centrum Sociologie, Interuniversity Programme in Demography, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30289 Mauldin, W. Parker. Contraceptive use in the year 2000. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,373-93 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
This paper contains estimates by method of the number of contraceptive users and acceptors required to meet the U.N. medium population projection of 5 billion people in the developing world by the year 2000. The author concludes that it will be necessary to increase contraceptive prevalence from 51 to 59 percent by 2000 and that this will involve an increase in the number of users from 380 to 567 million. Increases in family planning effort and funding required to reach this goal are described.
Correspondence: W. P. Mauldin, Rockefeller Foundation, 1133 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10021-6399. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30290 Ochoa, Luis H.; Tsui, Amy O. Contraceptive availability in four Latin American countries. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,273-86 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
The authors "compare the relative availability of contraceptive services to eligible populations, by focusing on the following: (1) level of service availability to all women and to modern method users, (2) the relationship between methods used and service access, using time and distance measures, (3) the type of providers used, and (4) source-specific method availability both through clinic and community-based outlets. A secondary objective is to discuss the analytical utility of the local-level survey measures of contraceptive access as collected in the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)." The countries studied are Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, and Guatemala.
Correspondence: L. H. Ochoa, Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30291 Raman, S.; Kishen, D.; Hamidah, K.; Ang, E. S. Changes in contraceptive practice in a multiracial urban-based community over a ten-year period. Advances in Contraception, Vol. 8, No. 2, Jun 1992. 129-40 pp. Boston, Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"There have been changes in the national policy regarding population growth in Malaysia from 1982. This report studies the changes in contraceptive practice among the three racial groups in this country, i.e. Malays, Chinese and Indians....This is a retrospective study based on the attendance at the same family planning clinic in an urban setting. The striking change noted is the change in the racial composition of contraceptive usage in the two study periods with a shift from the Chinese being predominant in 1975-1979 to Malays in 1985-1989....The results also reveal a significant trend of change for users of the pill and those undergoing sterilization."
Correspondence: S. Raman, University Hospital, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, 59100 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30292 Ross, John A.; Mauldin, W. Parker; Green, Steven R.; Cooke, E. Romana. Family planning and child survival programs as assessed in 1991. ISBN 0-87834-066-1. LC 92-60575. 1992. v, 182 pp. Population Council: New York, New York. In Eng.
This volume provides data on family planning programs and maternal and child survival in more than 100 developing countries. It is based partly on a questionnaire survey conducted in 1989. Separate sections cover demographic and social settings, including life expectancy and fertility rates; eligible populations and contraceptive prevalence; program effort and coverage; government policies, including those regarding legal abortion; family planning expenditures; import regulations and contraceptive costs; and maternal care and child survival programs, including breast-feeding promotion and oral rehydration and immunization programs.
For a related report covering historical patterns up to the mid-1980s by Ross et al., published in 1988, see 54:40336.
Correspondence: Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30293 Ross, John A. Sterilization: past, present, future. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 23, No. 3, May-Jun 1992. 187-98 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Sterilization is unique as a method of contraception, because it has nearly perfect continuation and effectiveness. These features, together with its one-step character and its availability to either sex, have gradually raised the prevalence of sterilization to a level above that of any other method. This report begins by assessing current prevalence and recent trends, and then examines the dynamics of past growth, with illustrations from cohort studies. Finally, a new projection method is used to anticipate the future course of sterilization adoption and prevalence." The focus is on developing countries.
Correspondence: J. A. Ross, Population Council, Research Division, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30294 Samijo, M. S.; Weller, Bob; Sly, David F. The characteristics of private vs. public sector contraceptive users in Indonesia. Center for the Study of Population Working Paper, No. WPS 91-82, [1991]. 25, [5] pp. Florida State University, College of Social Sciences, Center for the Study of Population: Tallahassee, Florida. In Eng.
"Using data from [the 1987] National Indonesian Contraceptive Prevalence Survey, this paper identifies and compares some of the determinants of contraceptive use and self-reliance. To accomplish this we compare users and nonusers of family planning generally. Then focusing on users we compare self-reliant users to [public-sector users in the government-sponsored program]."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1991 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: Robert H. Weller, Editor, Working Paper Series, Florida State University, Center for the Study of Population, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30295 Soottipong, Rossarin. Differentials in contraceptive use among the Karen in Chiang Mai province, northern Thailand. Working Papers in Demography, No. 27, 1991. 31 pp. Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography and Sociology: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"Using data from the 1986 census of hill tribe populations, this study identifies and tests hypotheses associated with causal factors, (cultural, socioeconomic, and family planning) affecting contraceptive use among the Karen, the largest hill tribe minority group in Thailand, in Chiang Mai province, northern Thailand. Estimated logistic regression models indicate that women who had high ability to use the Thai language, women with a high level of wealth, and women who had received family planning advice were most likely to use contraception. The analysis of Karen women who wanted no more children, and those who wanted to postpone the next child also shows similar results."
Correspondence: Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography and Sociology, P.O. Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30296 Tanfer, Koray; Cubbins, Lisa A.; Brewster, Karin L. Determinants of contraceptive choice among single women in the United States. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 24, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1992. 155-61, 173 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Data from the 1983 [U.S.] National Survey of Unmarried Women are used to analyze characteristics that affect contraceptive decision-making among single women aged 20-29 who are exposed to the risk of pregnancy. Factors found to affect whether these women use a relatively effective method such as the pill or the IUD, use coitus-dependent methods or use no method include family structure at age 15, educational level, work status, religious affiliation, fertility relative to desired fertility, and past contraceptive failure. Bivariate analyses revealed notable differences between whites and blacks in contraceptive behavior. Multivariate analyses showed that while the decision to use a contraceptive method was somewhat affected by race, method choice was not. Overall, contraceptive decision-making was relatively unaffected by race, length of the relationship and current living arrangement."
Correspondence: K. Tanfer, Battelle Human Affairs Research Centers, Health and Population Research Center, 4000 NE 41st Street, Seattle, WA 98105. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30297 Tanfer, Koray; Cubbins, Lisa A.; Brewster, Karin L.; Schoorl, Jeannette J. Determinants of contraceptive use and method choice among single women in the United States. Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper, No. 6, Mar 1990. 30, [9] pp. Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"This paper examines the social and demographic determinants of contraceptive use and method choice among sexually active, [20-29-year-old] single women, in the United States, who were exposed to the risk of a pregnancy. A general social-demographic model is used as the conceptual framework in which contraceptive use status and method choice are viewed as a function of [a] set of background factors, life-cycle variables, and current characteristics....Separate models are estimated for black and white women."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: Seattle Population Research Center, c/o University of Washington, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, Department of Sociology DK-40, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30298 Tanfer, Koray; Hyle, Patricia D. The determinants and effects of waiting time to coitus. Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper, No. 9, Mar 1991. 34, [9] pp. Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"In this paper we explore the determinants of waiting time to coitus in a steady relationship, and the effects of waiting time on contraceptive behavior." Data are from the 1983 National Survey of Unmarried Women, which covered a sample of 20-29-year-old never-married U.S. women.
This paper was originally presented at the 1991 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: Seattle Population Research Center, c/o University of Washington, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, Department of Sociology DK-40, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30299 Thapa, Shyam; Kumar, Sushil; Cushing, Jeanne; Kennedy, Kathy. Contraceptive use and needs among postpartum women in 25 developing countries: recent patterns and implications. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,429-54 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"This paper examines the contraceptive behavior and needs among postpartum women in developing countries. It addresses three inter-related issues: First, what is the prevalence of contraceptive use among postpartum women and when do they begin contracepting after childbirth? Second, what are their preferences for future childbearing? And third, to what extent do postpartum women actually have contact with health personnel before, during and after the delivery?" Data are from 25 countries participating in the DHS program.
Correspondence: S. Thapa, Family Health International, P.O. Box 13950, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30300 Toulemon, Laurent; Leridon, Henri. Birth control and social class: contraception, accidental pregnancies, and abortion. [Maitrise de la fecondite et appartenance sociale: contraception, grossesses accidentelles et avortements.] Population, Vol. 47, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1992. 1-45 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Changes in contraceptive practice and availability in France are reviewed by social class for the period 1978-1988. Consideration is given to the effects of modern contraceptive methods on the number of accidental pregnancies and on the number of abortions performed.
Correspondence: L. Toulemon, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30301 United Nations. Economic and Social C