Volume 58 - Number 3 - Fall 1992

E. Mortality

Studies that treat quantitative mortality data analytically. Methodological studies primarily concerned with mortality are cited in this division and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models , if necessary. The main references to crude data are in the vital statistics items in S. Official Statistical Publications .

E.1. General Mortality

Studies of overall mortality and comparisons of several types of mortality. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are classified under the major section covered, or, if this is not self-evident, included here under General Mortality.

58:30097 Adlakha, Arjun; Arriaga, Eduardo. Excess mortality in Guatemala: a comparison of causes of death in Guatemala and Costa Rica. CIR Staff Paper, No. 66, Aug 1992. ix, 32 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for International Research: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors compare causes of death, life expectancy, and mortality rates for Costa Rica and Guatemala, two countries with similar per capita gross national product and urban/rural residence patterns. It is noted that in Costa Rica, life expectancy is 14 years higher than in Guatemala. The analysis indicates that about half the difference would be eliminated if Guatemalan death rates for children under five years of age were reduced to Costa Rican levels. Another major contributor to excess Guatemalan mortality is intestinal infections. High mortality among adult males from violence is also observed.
Correspondence: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for International Research, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30098 Bangladesh. Bureau of Statistics. Statistics Division (Dhaka, Bangladesh). Patterns, levels, trends in mortality and regional life tables for Bangladesh: evidence from Sample Vital Registration System, 1981-88. May 1990. 69 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
Data on mortality from the Bangladesh Demographic Survey and Vital Registration System are presented and analyzed for the period 1981-1988. Chapters are included on the crude death rate, infant and child mortality, age-specific death rates, maternal mortality, causes of death, and life expectancy. Abridged life tables are presented by age and sex for selected areas for 1981 and 1987.
For a related report published in 1990 that also includes data on trends in fertility, nuptiality patterns, and internal migration, see 57:40775.
Correspondence: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Statistics Division, Ministry of Planning, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30099 Canada. Health and Welfare (Ottawa, Canada); Canada. Statistics Canada (Ottawa, Canada). Mortality atlas of Canada, Volume 4: general mortality patterns and recent trends. [Repartition geographique de la mortalite au Canada, Volume 4: situation de la mortalite generale et tendances recentes.] Pub. Order No. H49-6/4-1990. ISBN 0-660-54801-1. 1991. 59, [50] pp. Canada Communication Group: Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
The purpose of this volume is two-fold: "to illustrate the current spatial distribution of mortality rates...and to depict changes in mortality rates in Canada. The maps presented in this volume should facilitate the detection of regions at high risk and general patterns of disease distribution. The volume contains 46 maps for 16 causes of death among six age groups."
Correspondence: Canada Communication Group--Publishing, Ottawa, Ontario K1A OS9, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30100 Golemanov, Nikolai. Mortality rates in Bulgaria--a social and political problem. [Smartnostta na naselenieto v Balgariya--sotsialen i politicheski problem.] Naselenie, No. 2, 1992. 49-59 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Trends in mortality during the period 1960-1989 in Bulgaria are investigated. The author finds that mortality rates are increasing and are higher than those of selected developed countries. Reasons for the higher rates are explored, and some policy recommendations are offered.
Correspondence: N. Golemanov, Balgarska Akademiya na Naukite, Institut po Demografiya, ul. Akad. G. Bonchev bl. 6, 1113 Sofia, Bulgaria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30101 Jozan, Peter. Selected features of mortality in Hungary in the 1980s. [A halandosag nehany jellegzetessege Magyarorszagon az 1980-as evekben.] Demografia, Vol. 34, No. 3-4, 1991. 339-50 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun.
Current mortality trends in Hungary are reviewed and compared with trends in other developed countries.
Correspondence: P. Jozan, Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal, Keleti Karoly U. 5-7, 1525 Budapest II, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30102 Kostaki, Anastasia. A nine-parameter version of the Heligman-Pollard formula. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1992. 277-88 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
"In this paper we outline and evaluate a nine-parameter version of the Heligman-Pollard formula. In our applications, using mortality data for five European countries we found that this version provides closer fits to empirical mortality data than the classical eight-parameter formula, thus eliminating a source of systematic error in this latter formula."
Correspondence: A. Kostaki, University of Lund, Department of Statistics, Box 7008, S-220 07, Lund, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30103 Krishnan, Parameswara; Jin, Yan. An alternative to the life table model. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 139-45 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The objective of this paper is to present an alternative model to the study of mortality without reference to the actuarial technique of the life table." Canadian data for 1985-1987 are used to illustrate the methodology.
Correspondence: P. Krishnan, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30104 Krumins, Juris; Zvidrins, Peteris. Recent mortality trends in the three Baltic republics. Population Studies, Vol. 46, No. 2, Jul 1992. 259-73 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Trends in men's and women's and in urban-rural mortality and life expectancy in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania [since World War II] are examined and compared to those in the U.S.S.R. and European countries. Some comparisons with the pre-war data are made. Mortality rates by main causes of death during the 1980s are analysed. At the end of the 1950s life expectancy in the Baltic Republics was higher than in Eastern Europe, but for females it was higher than the average level in Europe. During the following decades this advantage was lost. The causes of this change are connected with common drawbacks in social policy, and the influence of consequences of wars and mass repressions during the 1940s and 1950s."
Correspondence: J. Krumins, University of Latvia, Rainis Boulevard 19, Riga 226098, Latvia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30105 Lee, Ronald D.; Carter, Lawrence R. Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 87, No. 419, Sep 1992. 659-75 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"Time series methods are used to make long-run forecasts, with confidence intervals, of age-specific mortality in the United States from 1990 to 2065. First, the logs of the age-specific death rates are modeled as a linear function of an unobserved period-specific intensity index, with parameters depending on age. This model is fit to the matrix of U.S. death rates, 1933 to 1987, using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method; it accounts for almost all the variance over time in age-specific death rates as a group." The results indicate "an increase of 10.5 years in life expectancy to 86.05 in 2065 (sexes combined), with a confidence band of plus 3.9 or minus 5.6 years, including uncertainty concerning the estimated trend. Whereas 46% now survive to age 80, by 2065 46% will survive to age 90." Comments are included by Robert McNown (pp. 671-2) and Juha M. Alho (pp. 673-4) as well as a rejoinder by the authors (pp. 674-5).
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: R. D. Lee, University of California, Department of Demography, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

58:30106 Mackenbach, J. P.; Kunst, A. E.; Looman, C. W. N. Seasonal variation in mortality in the Netherlands. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Vol. 46, No. 3, Jun 1992. 261-5 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The aim [of this study] was to describe the pattern of seasonal variation in all cause mortality in The Netherlands, and to analyse the contribution of specific causes of death to the winter excess of all cause mortality....The pattern of variation of mortality within the year suggests that it is not based on a simple relationship with climatological circumstances, because the latter fluctuate according to a less complex pattern. Cause specific data suggest an instantaneous effect of 'winter' on the cardiovascular system, and a delayed effect mediated by respiratory infections." Data are from the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics and cover the period 1979-1987.
Correspondence: J. P. Mackenbach, Erasmus University Medical School, Department of Public Health and Social Medicine, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30107 Menken, Jane; Campbell, Cameron. Age-patterns of famine-related mortality increase: implications for long-term population growth. Health Transition Review, Vol. 2, No. 1, Apr 1992. 91-101 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"In this paper, we comment on [Dyson's] claim that conceptions provide a sensitive index of the development of famine and conclude that they do so only in retrospect. We next discuss the controversy over age and sex differentials in the impact of famine and attempt to recast the issue in terms of the impact first on survival rather than deaths, and then on resumption of population growth. We use a computer-simulation model to provide illustrations of the effects of different age and sex patterns of mortality change during famines on subsequent population growth." The geographical emphasis is on South Asia.
For the work by T. Dyson, published in 1991, see 57:20657 and 30667.
Correspondence: J. Menken, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30108 Offutt, Katherine B.; Rosenberg, Harry M. A comparison of reported age to age computed using date of birth and date of death from the death certificate. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 133-8 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The purpose of this study was to compare two measures of age at death from the death certificate; namely; (1) reported age and (2) age calculated on the basis of reported date of birth and date of death....This analysis is based on [U.S.] data for 1989...."
Correspondence: H. M. Rosenberg, U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, 6525 Belcrest Road, Room 840, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30109 Pekkanen, Juha; Nissinen, Aulikki; Punsar, Sven; Karvonen, Martti J. Short- and long-term association of serum cholesterol with mortality: the 25-year follow-up of the Finnish cohorts of the Seven Countries Study. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 135, No. 11, Jun 1, 1992. 1,251-8 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"The association of serum cholesterol with cause-specific and all-cause mortality was assessed in a cohort of 1,426 [Finnish] men aged 40-59 years who were free of clinically evident heart disease at baseline (1959)." The results suggest that to analyze fully the association between serum cholesterol and all-cause mortality, a follow-up period of 10 years or more is required. Changes in the direction of the association studied should also be taken into account.
Correspondence: J. Pekkanen, National Public Health Institute, Department of Environmental Epidemiology, Neulaniementie 4, 70210 Kuopio, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

58:30110 Sathar, Zeba A. Changes in mortality in Pakistan 1960-88. Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 30, No. 4, Pt. 2, Winter 1991. 669-79 pp. Islamabad, Pakistan. In Eng.
Trends in mortality in Pakistan from 1960 to 1988 are analyzed and compared. Consideration is given to infant and child mortality, adult mortality, and projections for future rates. Comments by M. D. Mallick are included (pp. 677-9).
Correspondence: Z. A. Sathar, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University Campus, P.O. Box 1091, Islamabad, Pakistan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30111 Stevens, J.; Keil, J. E.; Rust, P. F.; Verdugo, R. R.; Davis, C. E.; Tyroler, H. A.; Gazes, P. C. Body mass index and body girths as predictors of mortality in black and white men. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 135, No. 10, May 15, 1992. 1,137-46 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"Anthropometric measurements collected from black and white men in the 1960 (n=946) and 1963 (n=456) examinations of the Charleston Heart Study cohort (Charleston County, South Carolina) were examined as predictors of all cause and coronary heart disease mortality." The results indicate that "both body mass index and body circumferences were predictive of mortality in the black men but not in the white men in the Charleston Heart Study cohort."
Correspondence: J. Stevens, Medical University of South Carolina, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Systems Science, Harborview Office Tower, Room 910, Charleston, SC 29425. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

58:30112 Westerling, Ragnar; Smedby, Bjorn. The European Community "avoidable death indicators" in Sweden 1974-1985. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 21, No. 3, Jun 1992. 502-10 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Avoidable mortality in Sweden 1974-1985 was analysed using a European Community (EC) Working Group list of 'avoidable death indicators.' The list includes causes of death that in certain age groups were defined as indicators of the outcome of medical care intervention or for some conditions, indicators of the national health policies....Most of the avoidable causes of death had a relatively low standard mortality rate (SMR) when compared to both the EC standard and to the Swedish SMR for total mortality....The development and implementation of the avoidable death concept and methodology is discussed."
Correspondence: R. Westerling, Akademiska Sjukhuset, Department of Social Medicine, S-751 85 Uppsala, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.2. Prenatal and Perinatal Mortality

Studies dealing primarily with fetal and neonatal mortality, except those dealing with spontaneous abortions, which are classified under F.3. Sterility and Other Pathology , and those studies dealing with induced abortions, which are classified under F.4.5. Induced Abortion . Perinatal mortality is defined as mortality occurring between the twenty-eighth week of gestation and the seventh day of life.

58:30113 Ruffieux, Christiane; Marazzi, Alfio; Paccaud, Fred. The circadian rhythm of the perinatal mortality rate in Switzerland. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 135, No. 8, Apr 15, 1992. 936-51 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"The authors examine the relation recorded between the perinatal mortality rate (PMR), birth weight in four categories, and hour of birth throughout the week in Switzerland, using data on 672,013 births and 5,764 perinatal deaths recorded between 1979 and 1987. From Monday to Friday, the PMR follows a circadian rhythm with a regular increase from early morning to evening, with a peak for babies born between 7 and 8 p.m. This pattern of variation has two main components: The circadian rhythms for the proportion of births in the four weight categories and the PMR circadian rhythm for babies weighing more than 2.5 kg....Mechanisms underlying the weight-specific timing of birth are discussed, including time selection of birth according to obstetric risks, the direct effect of neonatal and obstetric care, and chronobiologic behavior."
Correspondence: F. Paccaud, Institut Universitaire de Medecine Sociale et Preventive, Bugnon 17, 1005 Lausanne, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

E.3. Infant and Childhood Mortality

Studies of infant mortality under one year of age, including neonatal mortality occurring after the seventh day of life, and childhood mortality after one year of age. The subject of infanticide, deliberate or implied, is also classified under this heading.

58:30114 Ahmad, Omar B.; Eberstein, Isaac W.; Sly, David F. Proximate determinants of child mortality in Liberia. Center for the Study of Population Working Paper, No. WPS 91-72, [1991]. 32 pp. Florida State University, College of Social Sciences, Center for the Study of Population: Tallahassee, Florida. In Eng.
The authors examine determinants of infant and child mortality in Liberia. "The study looks at the effect of maternal socio-demographic characteristics and the quality of the environment on child survival, through two intervening variables, namely: breastfeeding and prenatal care. The [1986] Demographic and Health Survey data for Liberia was used, and a weighted sample of 5,180 children between the ages of 0-5 years was analyzed."
Correspondence: Robert H. Weller, Editor, Working Paper Series, Florida State University, Center for the Study of Population, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30115 Ballweg, John A.; Pagtolun-an, Imelda G. Parental underinvestment: a link in the fertility-mortality continuum. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 11, No. 1, 1992. 73-89 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
Factors affecting infant and child mortality in the Philippines are examined. "Selective parental investment in siblings has been used to describe differential mortality rates. Using data from 986 Filipino women who had an average of 4.8 live births, a LISREL [maximum likelihood] and six sets of regression models support the hypothesis that fertility is linked to underinvestment and that mortality, as a consequence, is linked to high birth order. The analysis also identifies intervening factors associated with this relationship....The conclusion is that parental underinvestment represents a link between fertility and mortality during infancy and early childhood that has not been described previously."
Correspondence: J. A. Ballweg, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Sociology, Blacksburg, VA 24061-0136. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30116 Bankole, Akinrinola; Olaleye, David O. The effects of breastfeeding on infant and child mortality in Kenya. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,045-72 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"This paper examines the relationship between breastfeeding and child mortality in Kenya. The specific objectives are: (1) to examine whether breastfeeding is related to infant and early childhood mortality in Kenya, and (2) to investigate whether the age at which artificial food is introduced to the child is related to child survival. The data for the study come from the 1989 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS)....The results indicate that breastfeeding is not a significant predictor of infant mortality. Breastfed children were however found to be more susceptible to the risk of dying in the second year of life. The results also show that age of artificial feeding is positively related to infant and child mortality."
Correspondence: A. Bankole, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30117 Barell, Vita; Lusky, Ayala; Chetrit, Angela; Zadka, Pnina. Socio-demographic characteristics of infant mortality based on data for 1981-1984. Central Bureau of Statistics Special Series, No. 910, 1992. xv, 51 pp. Central Bureau of Statistics: Jerusalem, Israel; Ministry of Health: Jerusalem, Israel. In Eng; Heb.
Trends in infant mortality in Israel are analyzed for the period 1981-1984. Univariate and bivariate analyses of data are presented by demographic, social, and biological characteristics of parents and infants, and grouped by birth cohort and religion where possible. Comparison is made with analyses of data for 1977-1980.
For the report based on data for 1977-1980, published in 1990, see 57:30135.
Correspondence: Central Bureau of Statistics, Prime Minister's Office, P.O.B. 13015, Jerusalem 91130, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

58:30118 Boerma, J. Ties; Bicego, George T. Preceding birth intervals and child survival: searching for pathways of influence. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,183-205 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"In the present study the attempt was made to contribute to the debate on the mechanisms linking short preceding birth intervals and child survival by studying the effects of short intervals on maternal and child health-related variables in 17 DHS surveys. The results present some evidence supporting the importance of prenatal mechanisms, which may include maternal depletion." Factors considered include the overlap of gestation and lactation, antenatal care, child nutritional status, risks of diarrhea for children, health services utilization, and breast-feeding.
Correspondence: J. T. Boerma, Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30119 Cleland, John; Bicego, George; Fegan, Greg. Socioeconomic inequalities in childhood mortality: the 1970s to the 1980s. Health Transition Review, Vol. 2, No. 1, Apr 1992. 1-18 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"The last three decades have witnessed substantial reductions in childhood mortality in most developing nations. Despite this encouraging picture, analysis of WFS and DHS survey data shows that socioeconomic disparities in survival chances have not narrowed between the 1970s and 1980s, and in some cases, have widened. Changes in mother's education and father's occupation contributed only modestly to secular declines in mortality. In most countries studied, no more than 20 per cent of the national trend could be accounted for by compositional improvements. The median contributions of improvements in mother's education and father's occupation were ten and eight per cent, respectively."
Correspondence: J. Cleland, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Centre for Population Studies, Department of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30120 Curtis, Sian L.; Diamond, Ian; McDonald, John W. Birth interval effects and healthy families in Brazil. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,207-27 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"In this paper we have addressed a number of issues concerning birth-spacing, family behaviour and infant and child mortality. The problem of correlated risks within families has been identified and the random-effects logistic regression model proposed as a method of analysing the data which allows for correlations within families. The model was applied to post-neonatal mortality in Brazil using data from the 1986 DHS and the random effect was found to be very highly significant. This suggests that there is significant variation in the post-neonatal mortality risks of children that can be attributed to the family to which they belong even after controlling for significant factors such as preceding birth interval, maternal education and region of residence."
Correspondence: S. L. Curtis, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southhampton SO9 4XY, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30121 Dankert, G.; van Ginneken, J. Birth weight and other determinants of infant and child mortality in three provinces of China. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 23, No. 4, Oct 1991. 477-89 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"Information on levels, trends and determinants of infant and child mortality was available from the 1985 In-depth Fertility Survey which was conducted in three provinces of China. Mortality of children below age 5 varied from 49 per 1,000 live births in Shaanxi to 20 in Shanghai in 1980-85 and has declined substantially since 1960....Male mortality was considerably higher than female mortality in the neonatal and post-neonatal period, and at ages 1-5 years. Birth weight, place of residence and mother's education were found to be important determinants of mortality; age of mother and parity were less important."
Correspondence: G. Dankert, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30122 Eberstein, Isaac W. Race/ethnicity and infant mortality. Center for the Study of Population Working Paper, No. WPS 92-90, [1992]. 29, [6] pp. Florida State University, College of Social Sciences, Center for the Study of Population: Tallahassee, Florida. In Eng.
"The present paper initially reviews racial/ethnic differentials in infant mortality in the U.S. and, secondly, presents information on group differences in important risk factors which may help to account for this variability....Risk factors are grouped into three broad categories, ranging from general aspects of minority groups' social and community background to individual medical and health characteristics directly affecting infant health and survival."
Correspondence: Robert H. Weller, Editor, Working Paper Series, Florida State University, Center for the Study of Population, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30123 Eberstein, Isaac W.; Hummer, Robert A.; Nam, Charles B. Sociodemographic influences on infant mortality: direct and indirect effects. Center for the Study of Population Working Paper, No. WPS 91-83, [1991]. 30, [11] pp. Florida State University, College of Social Sciences, Center for the Study of Population: Tallahassee, Florida. In Eng.
"This research focuses on the direct, indirect, and total effects of three aspects of maternal sociodemographic background (marital status, education, and age) on infant mortality specific to cause of death....Regression techniques for the analysis of categorical variables are applied to data from linked birth-death certificates for singletons born to non-Hispanic whites in Florida in 1980-82."
Correspondence: Robert H. Weller, Editor, Working Paper Series, Florida State University, Center for the Study of Population, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30124 Fachry, Anwar. The effect of birth interval on infant mortality in Indonesia. Center for the Study of Population Working Paper, No. WPS 91-68, [1991]. 57 pp. Florida State University, College of Social Sciences, Center for the Study of Population: Tallahassee, Florida. In Eng.
"This study...is aimed at contributing further understanding about the relative role of birth interval among other social and biodemographic factors in explaining infant mortality in Indonesia....The present work examines data from the 1987 Indonesian Demographic and Health Survey through the use of logit models."
Correspondence: Robert H. Weller, Editor, Working Paper Series, Florida State University, Center for the Study of Population, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30125 Feaganes, J. R.; Suchindran, C. M. Weibull regression with unobservable heterogeneity, an application. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 160-5 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
The authors examine the usefulness of models that consider unobserved heterogeneity. "The focus of this paper is to expand on an innovative method of statistical analysis suggested by Manton et al....The model is used to explore infant mortality among native Americans in North Carolina from 1985 through 1987."
For the article by Kenneth G. Manton et al., published in 1986, see 52:40155.
Correspondence: J. R. Feaganes, University of North Carolina, Department of Biostatistics, CB 7400, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-7400. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30126 Geronimus, Arline T.; Bound, John. Black/white infant mortality differentials in the United States: towards more theory-based research. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 228-37 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
Attempts to improve analysis of mortality differentials between black and white infants in the United States by using a combination of two or more data sets are reviewed. The authors find that "while we argue that combining data sets can advance the field of infant mortality research, there are many statistical and methodological reasons to prefer that a single adequate data set existed."
Correspondence: A. T. Geronimus, University of Michigan, M4110 School of Public Health II, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30127 Gray, Ronald H.; Smith, Gordon; Barss, Peter. The use of verbal autopsy methods to determine selected causes of death in children. IUSSP Paper, No. 30, [1990]. 46 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"This paper presents the results of an international workshop on the verbal autopsy method that was held at The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health on March 13-15, 1989. The workshop was convened to examine verbal autopsy methods with the goal of achieving a consensus on methodologic approaches. The focus was on deaths during childhood because mortality among children still constitutes a major public health problem in developing countries."
This paper is also published as IIP Occasional Paper, No. 10, Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University, Institute for International Programs, 1990.
Correspondence: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, rue des Augustins 34, 4000 Liege, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30128 Gubhaju, Bhakta; Streatfield, Kim; Majumder, Abul K. Socioeconomic, demographic and environmental determinants of infant mortality in Nepal. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 23, No. 4, Oct 1991. 425-35 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
Socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental determinants of infant mortality in Nepal are examined using data from the 1986 Nepal Fertility and Family Planning Survey. Results indicate that "previous birth interval and survival of preceding child still predominated as determinants of infant mortality, particularly in rural areas of Nepal. However, in urban Nepal, where the level of socioeconomic development is higher, an environmental variable...emerges as important in determining infant mortality. Separate policy measures for child survival prospects in rural and urban Nepal are suggested."
Correspondence: B. Gubhaju, U.N. Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30129 Hobcraft, John. Child spacing and child mortality. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,157-81 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
The author investigates the relationship between birth spacing and child mortality, using data from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 25 countries. Aspects considered include differentials by age of mother, length of preceding birth interval, the impact of date imputation, and broad risk groups of births.
Correspondence: J. Hobcraft, London School of Economics, Room S 281, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30130 Hoffman, Howard J.; Quan, Hui; Stockbauer, Joseph W.; Nashold, Raymond D.; Kirby, Russell S. Infant mortality in relation to indices of maturity at birth. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 146-53 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The purpose [of this article is] to illustrate the utility of collecting and analyzing additional measures of an infant's size at birth." Data from Missouri and Wisconsin are used "to illustrate the importance of these different indices for assessing prematurity, growth retardation, and infant mortality."
Correspondence: H. J. Hoffman, U.S. National Institute for Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, EPN-640, Bethesda, MD 20892. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30131 Hummer, Robert A.; Eberstein, Isaac W.; Nam, Charles B. Infant mortality differentials among Hispanic groups in Florida. Social Forces, Vol. 70, No. 4, Jun 1992. 1,055-75 pp. Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
"This article examines infant mortality differentials among Hispanic groups using linked birth-death certificate data from the 1980-1982 birth cohorts in Florida. Findings indicate some large differentials between groups in rates of infant mortality for both endogenous and exogenous causes of death, with Puerto Ricans and Mexicans having higher rates than Cubans and other Hispanics from each set of causes. Results also show that controlling for background and intervening variables of the infant mortality process explains a portion of the mortality differentials, while interactions between Hispanic origin and independent variables suggest some unique relationships between ethnic origin and explanatory factors. Factors that might aid in the further explanation of the infant mortality differentials between groups are discussed."
Correspondence: R. A. Hummer, Florida State University, Center for the Study of Population, 659-C Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30132 Juarez, Fatima. Institutional effects on fertility and child survival. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,229-54 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"The aim of this paper is to present empirical evidence on the macro and micro level relationships of family planning and health interventions on fertility and child survival, and should be considered as an initial exploratory phase. The analysis presents first, a broad overview of the contextual variables and recent estimates of Infant Mortality Rates (IMR) and Total Fertility Rates (TFR), and is followed by an examination of fertility and child mortality trends considering the influence of the health sector." The analysis is based on DHS data for Ecuador.
Correspondence: F. Juarez, U.N. Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30133 Khorshed, A. B. M.; Mozumder, Alam; Phillips, James F. A multivariate analysis of social and economic determinants of neonatal and infant mortality in four rural thanas of Bangladesh. Demography India, Vol. 19, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1990. 167-82 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"Recent work on the correlates of neonatal, infant and child mortality in the Matlab research area of Comilla District in Bangladesh suggests that effects of social and economic variables on neonatal and infant mortality are absent, but that such effects are pronounced among children over 12 months. This paper uses a new longitudinal demographic data base to examine these effects in rural Bangladesh where special health services such as those available in Matlab have not yet been introduced. A multivariate hazards model is estimated which shows that maternal education and household economic status have no effect on neonatal or post neonatal mortality....The finding that social and economic status indicators are weak predictors of infant mortality is consistent with findings from other areas of rural Bangladesh."
Correspondence: A. B. M. Khorshed, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Matlab Extension Project, Box 128, Dhaka 2, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30134 Kuate Defo, Barthelemy. Mortality and attrition processes in longitudinal studies in Africa: an appraisal of the IFORD surveys. Population Studies, Vol. 46, No. 2, Jul 1992. 327-48 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper considers the impact of sample-attrition through dropouts on mortality analyses, using the pioneering IFORD survey of Yaounde (Cameroon). The essential issue in the IFORD surveys is the possibility that mortality of members of the cohort may differentially select some children, with specific underlying characteristics. The paper implements a method to assess the following three distinct concerns that may arise in the analysis of the IFORD data: (a) the estimation of the relationship between the covariates and the rate of occurrence of mortality or attrition over time; (b) the study of the interrelation between processes under a specific set of conditions during intervals between rounds for those children still alive and in the survey at the beginning of each interval; and (c) the issue of whether mortality and mortality differentials are affected when attrition is ignored."
Correspondence: B. Kuate Defo, University of Wisconsin, School of Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine, 504 North Walnut Street, Madison, WI 53705. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30135 Kulkarni, P. M.; Krishnamoorthy, S.; Devaraj, K. Effects of education and income on infant mortality: an assessment of the intermediate variables framework. Demography India, Vol. 19, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1990. 263-70 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper examines the effects of education and income on infant mortality with the aid of an intermediate variables framework. The analysis is at the cross-national level based on the data for 74 countries....The results show that though female literacy has a strong effect on infant mortality, most of it is not felt through the set of intermediate variables used in this analysis. Further, though a relatively greater portion of the effect of income is explained by the intermediate variables, the direct effect is also quite strong. Probable reasons for the inability of the intermediate variables to explain the effects satisfactorily are discussed."
Correspondence: P. M. Kulkarni, Bharathiar University, Department of Population Studies, Coimbatore 641 046, Tamil Nadu, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30136 MacDorman, Marian F.; Prager, Kate; Enger, Shelley M.; Gutierrez, Mary L. The effect of two methods for allocating missing data on variable-specific infant mortality rates from the national linked birth and infant death file. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 209-14 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This paper evaluates the effect of imputation versus proportional distribution of missing data on variable-specific infant mortality rates for six variables: maternal education, live birth order, total birth order, birth weight, period of gestation, and Hispanic origin of mother." Data are for the United States.
Correspondence: M. F. MacDorman, U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, 6525 Belcrest Road, Room 840, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30137 Martin, Linda M. Geographic proximity of maternal and perinatal medical services: socio-demographic determinants and infant mortality consequences. Center for the Study of Population Working Paper, No. WPS 91-75, [1991]. 29, [12] pp. Florida State University, College of Social Sciences, Center for the Study of Population: Tallahassee, Florida. In Eng.
"The purpose of the present analysis is to examine the determinants of proximity of medical care and the consequences of proximity and infant survival. We begin with a description of the distribution of facilities and the patterns of utilization and movement associated with births in the counties of Florida. Then, the relationships between a) the health of the mother and/or the neonate and the proximity of the appropriate care facility and b) the proximity of that care and the survival of the infant are investigated using logit analysis."
Correspondence: Robert H. Weller, Editor, Working Paper Series, Florida State University, Center for the Study of Population, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30138 McCracken, Stephen D.; Rodrigues, Roberto N.; Sawyer, Diana O. Fertility change and infant survival in Brazil, 1970-75 and 1980-85. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 1,021-43 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"This paper focuses on how birth characteristics have changed and on the estimation of what impact these changes may have had on infant mortality in Brazil between 1970-75 and 1980-85. It is based on information from the 1986 Brazil Demographic and Health Survey....The sample was divided into two regions: North/Northeastern (North/NE), which accounts for the highest levels of child mortality and fertility in Brazil, and the 'Other Regions'....[Findings show that] changes in birth characteristics during a period of fertility decline in Brazil and particularly in North/NE, contributed to beneficial gains in infant survival between 1970-75 and 1980-85....In the broader discussion of family planning, fertility decline, and child survival, the analysis indicates the positive role of fertility changes on child survival...during a period of fertility decline."
Correspondence: S. D. McCracken, CEDEPLAR, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Rua Curitiba 832, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30139 Nelson, Melvin D. Socioeconomic status and childhood mortality in North Carolina. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 82, No. 8, Aug 1992. 1,131-3 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author examines the relationship between socioeconomic status and child mortality in North Carolina. "Children in families eligible to receive Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) were found to have substantially higher mortality rates than non-AFDC children. The disparity seems to be greater for Whites than for non-Whites."
Correspondence: M. D. Nelson, State Center for Health and Environmental Statistics, P.O. Box 29538, Raleigh, NC 27626-0538. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

58:30140 Pant, Prakash D. Effect of education and household characteristics on infant and child mortality in urban Nepal. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 23, No. 4, Oct 1991. 437-43 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"Infant and child mortality differentials are analysed by education of parents and other family members, access to toilet, electricity and source of drinking water in urban Nepal, using data from the Nepal Fertility and Family Planning Survey, 1986. The analyses showed significant effects of education, access to toilet and electricity in lowering infant and child mortality. Access to toilet and electricity are proxies for household socioeconomic status which suggests that education and household resources are complementary in lowering the infant and child mortality."
Correspondence: P. D. Pant, Australian National University, National Centre for Development Studies, GPO 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30141 Pebley, Anne R.; Hermalin, Albert I.; Knodel, John. Birth spacing and infant mortality: evidence for eighteenth and nineteenth century German villages. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 23, No. 4, Oct 1991. 445-59 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"Data from an historical population in which fertility control was minimal and modern health services were mostly unavailable are used to show that there appears to have been a strong association between previous birth interval length and infant mortality, especially when the previous child survived. Although only imperfect proxies for breast-feeding practices and other potentially confounding factors are available for this population, the results suggest that the association between previous interval length and infant mortality in this population is not solely, or primarily, a function of differences in breast-feeding behaviour or socioeconomic status. Other factors, e.g. maternal depletion or sibling competition, are more likely to explain the observed association." The data are from the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and concern five regions in Germany.
Correspondence: A. R. Pebley, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30142 Shahidullah, M. Is breastfeeding a crucial determinant of child survival? Evidence from Matlab, Bangladesh. Working Papers in Demography, No. 30, 1991. 17 pp. Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography and Sociology: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"Using exceptionally high-quality longitudinal data from Matlab, Bangladesh, this study investigates the effect of both total and unsupplemented breastfeeding in conjunction with birth interval on early childhood mortality. This study uses a discrete hazard model approach and concludes that it is not the duration of total breastfeeding but the duration of unsupplemented breastfeeding which increases child survival. In this analysis unsupplemented breastfeeding appears as such a crucial determinant of early childhood mortality that its effect could not be eliminated or substantially attenuated even when controls for the effect of important demographic and socioeconomic factors are introduced. This study also reports that each of the covariates--supplementation, previous birth interval and onset of a subsequent conception--have their independent influence on early childhood mortality."
Correspondence: Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography and Sociology, P.O. Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30143 United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Development (New York, New York). Child mortality since the 1960s: a database for developing countries. No. ST/ESA/SER.A/128, Pub. Order No. E.92.XIII.10. ISBN 92-1-151247-6. 1992. viii, 400 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The main objective of this publication is to simplify the task of achieving consensus about recent levels and trends of child mortality in the developing countries. [It] presents databases on which measures of child mortality can be based for every developing country with an estimated 1990 population of 1 million or more and with data relevant to the estimation of child mortality during the period 1960-1990....The data set presented consists of 82 countries. For each country, the available national-level measures of child mortality from as many different sources as have been identified are presented graphically in a comparable manner."
Correspondence: U.N. Department of Economic and Social Development, Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30144 Wang, Xiaobin; Strobino, Donna M.; Guyer, Bernard. Differences in cause-specific infant mortality among Chinese, Japanese, and white Americans. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 135, No. 12, Jun 15, 1992. 1,382-93 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"This study investigated racial differences in infant mortality in a sample of 21,288 Chinese, 11,882 Japanese, and 65,818 white resident singleton livebirths obtained from the [U.S.] National Center for Health Statistics 1983 and 1984 linked birth/infant death files. The crude infant mortality rates were 8.03, 6.56, and 8.46 per 1,000 livebirths for Chinese, Japanese, and white births, respectively. Cause-specific mortality varied considerably among the three racial groups....The results of a logistic regression analysis indicate that the racial differences in total and cause-specific mortality persist when adjustment is made for demographic factors, use of prenatal care, infant sex, and birth weight. The effect of these latter variables on infant mortality varied by causes of death."
Correspondence: X. Wang, Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, Environmental Epidemiology Program, 665 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

E.4. Mortality at Other Ages

Studies of age-specific mortality and of mortality in special groups defined by age.

58:30145 Bah, Sulaiman M.; Teklu, Tesfay. The evolution of age patterns of mortality in Mauritius, 1969-1986. Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 92-1, ISBN 0-7714-1376-9. Mar 1992. 13 pp. University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
The authors analyze mortality patterns by age for Mauritius, using data for the period 1969-1986, a time during which mortality rates declined. They note that "this sharp decline in mortality was accompanied by a drastic change in...age and sex patterns of mortality."
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30146 Bell, William; Monsell, Brian. Using principal components in time series modeling and forecasting of age-specific mortality rates. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 154-9 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"We review the principal components approach, including a discussion of how one can develop a multivariate time series model for the full set of principal components. We also show how this model can be used to produce point and interval forecasts for the original series of demographic rates....We [then] apply the approach to forecasting age-specific central death rates of U.S. white females."
Correspondence: B. Monsell, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Room 3000-4, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30147 Dechter, Aimee R.; Preston, Samuel H. Age misreporting and its effects on adult mortality estimates in Latin America. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 31-32, 1991. 1-16 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article investigates whether misreporting of ages contributes to the apparently low mortality at older ages in Latin America. It compares the size of cohorts enumerated at two censuses, after allowance for intercensal deaths, in 10 intercensal periods in four countries. It finds evidence of very pervasive overstatement of age at advanced ages. Using an empirical age-reporting matrix for Costa Rica, it estimates the bias that such misstatement produces in measured adult mortality levels in that country."
Correspondence: A. R. Dechter, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30148 Elo, Irma T.; Preston, Samuel H. Effects of early-life conditions on adult mortality: a review. Population Index, Vol. 58, No. 2, Summer 1992. 186-212 pp. Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
"This paper considers the effects of health conditions in childhood on an individual's mortality risks as an adult. It examines epidemiologic evidence on some of the major mechanisms expected to create a linkage between childhood and adult mortality and reviews demographic and epidemiologic studies for evidence of the hypothesized linkages....Many empirical studies support the notion that childhood conditions play a major role in adult mortality, but only in the case of respiratory tuberculosis has the demographic importance of a specific mechanism been established by cohort studies. One's date and place of birth also appear to be persistently associated with risks of adult death in a wide variety of circumstances. An individual's height, perhaps the single best indicator of nutritional and disease environment in childhood, has recently been linked to adult mortality, especially from cardiovascular diseases. Further research is needed, however, before causal mechanisms can be identified."
Correspondence: I. T. Elo, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30149 Le Bras, Herve. The effects of fertility, nuptiality, and mortality on the survival of grandparents. [Le presence des grands-parents tient autant a la fecondite et a la nuptialite qu'a la mortalite.] Annales de Demographie Historique, 1991. 113-25 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
Using data for France, the author assesses the impact of fertility and nuptiality on the survivorship of grandparents, a phenomenon usually linked with the mortality level. Mean age at first marriage is found to be of particular importance in the analysis. The influence of ancestor survivorship on fertility, nuptiality, and family characteristics is then considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30150 Murray, Christopher J. L.; Yang, Gonghuan; Qiao, Xinjian. Adult mortality: levels, patterns and causes. In: The health of adults in the developing world, edited by Richard G. A. Feachem, Tord Kjellstrom, Christopher J. L. Murray, Mead Over, and Margaret A. Phillips. ISBN 0-19-520879-X. LC 92-7246. 1992. 23-111 pp. World Bank: Washington, D.C.; Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This chapter explores the levels, patterns, and causes of adult mortality in the developing world and challenges a number of misconceptions about adult mortality....The beginning of this chapter discusses the sources of information on adult mortality, uses model-based estimates to give an overview of adult mortality in the developing world, and examines historical and contemporary patterns of overall adult mortality in industrialized and developing countries using empirical data. The last part of the chapter focuses on specific causes of adult death, presenting a framework for cause-of-death analysis and the results of using this framework to analyze empirical data."
Correspondence: C. J. L. Murray, Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Population and International Health, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30151 Palloni, Alberto; Mare, Robert D. New methods for the analysis of adult mortality differentials. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 222-7 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This paper explores the nature of models for the analysis of adult mortality which make use of clustered survival times. We show that they are useful to address the problem of unmeasured heterogeneity while minimizing some of the identification problems that are typical of conventional parametric and non-parametric solutions....Our applications use the example of survival times of spouses....We use information on married couples in the [U.S.] National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Men...."
Correspondence: A. Palloni, University of Wisconsin, 4426 Social Science Building, Madison, WI 53706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30152 Timaeus, Ian. New estimates of adult mortality from DHS data on the timing of orphanhood relative to marriage. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 2. 1991. 857-74 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
The author describes ways in which DHS information on orphanhood can be used to determine long-term trends in adult mortality in developing countries. Brief mortality profiles for Ghana, Sri Lanka, and Ondo State, Nigeria, are included as illustrations.
Correspondence: I. Timaeus, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.5. Life Tables

Studies that present actual life table data and all studies concerned primarily with life tables, including the appropriate methodological studies. Life table studies that are concerned with topics other than mortality are classified under the appropriate heading and cross-referenced to this heading.

58:30153 Belgium. Institut National de Statistique (Brussels, Belgium). Life tables, 1988-1990. [Tables de mortalite 1988-1990.] Statistiques Demographiques, No. 2, 1992. 79 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
Life tables are presented by sex and province for Belgium for the period 1988-1990.
Correspondence: Institut National de Statistique, 44 rue de Louvain, Centre Albert, 8e etage, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30154 Damonte, Ana M.; Maccio, Guillermo A. Uruguay: complete life tables by sex and age, 1984-1986. [Uruguay: tablas completas de mortalidad por sexo y edad, 1984-1986.] CELADE Serie OI, No. 56, Pub. Order No. LC/DEM/G.103. [1991]. 22 pp. Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos: Montevideo, Uruguay; U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
Complete life tables for the period 1984-1986 are presented for Uruguay using data from official sources. "According to the mortality experience in the period 1984-86, the expectation of life at birth is 68.26 years for the male population and 75.25 for females. The gap between sexes is 6.99 years."
Correspondence: Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos, Cuareim 2052, Montevideo, Uruguay. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30155 Malaysia. Jabatan Perangkaan (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia). Abridged life tables, Peninsular Malaysia, 1981-1988. [Jadual hayat ringkas Semenanjung Malaysia, 1981-1988.] Feb 1991. vii, 50 pp. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. In Eng.
Abridged life tables by sex and ethnic group are presented for Peninsular Malaysia for each year from 1981 to 1988.
Correspondence: Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia, Wisma Statistik, Jalan Cenderasari, 50514 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Location: East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, HI.

58:30156 Netherlands. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek. Hoofdafdeling Bevolkingsstatistieken (Voorburg, Netherlands). Life tables by marital status, 1986-1990. [Overlevingstafels naar burgerlijke staat, 1986-1990.] ISBN 90-357-1015-0. 1992. 54 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"In this publication mortality, marriage and marriage dissolution in the population of the Netherlands in the period 1986-1990 are observed using life tables by marital status. These life tables start with a (fictitious) cohort of persons with an initial marital status...at an initial age. The numbers of survivors at subsequent ages are computed by means of sex and age specific quotients of marriage by former marital status, marriage dissolution quotients by new marital status, and mortality quotients by marital status...."
Correspondence: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, Prinses Beatrixlaan 428, Postbus 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30157 Paul, Christine. Mortality in regional comparison: general life tables for the 11 former states. [Sterblichkeit im regionalen Vergleich: allgemeine Sterbetafeln der elf alten Bundeslander.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 2, Feb 1992. 82-7 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Life tables for the 11 states of West Germany for the period 1986-1988 are presented and discussed. The data are based on the 1987 census. Regional differences in life expectancy and probability of death are analyzed.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

E.6. Differential Mortality

Studies on the ratio of mortality in different subgroups of a population, classified according to certain criteria, such as sex, social class, occupation, and marital status. Also includes studies on excess mortality and comparative mortality.

58:30158 Celton, Dora E. Mortality in the city of Cordoba, Argentina, between 1869 and 1990. [La mortalidad en la ciudad de Cordoba (Argentina) entre 1869 y 1990.] Boletin de la Asociacion de Demografia Historica, Vol. 10, No. 1, 1992. 31-57 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
Mortality levels and trends for the city of Cordoba, Argentina, from 1869 to 1990 are reviewed. The author notes that during the first half of the period, the major causes of death among the young were infectious and parasitic diseases, while cardiovascular disease and neoplasms among the elderly have predominated in recent years. She makes some comparisons with mortality levels for the country as a whole. A set of mortality tables for the city is included.
Correspondence: D. E. Celton, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba, Calle Obispo Trejo 242, 5000 Cordoba, Argentina. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30159 Dyson, Tim; Maharatna, Arup. Bihar famine, 1966-67 and Maharashtra drought, 1970-73: the demographic consequences. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 27, No. 26, Jun 27, 1992. 1,325-32 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
The authors analyze and compare the demographic consequences (as measured by the excess mortality rate) of two food shortages caused by drought in India. One famine occurred in Bihar from 1966 to 1967, the other in Maharashtra from 1970 to 1973. "The present paper has two main objectives. First, to assess whether or not excess mortality actually occurred in Bihar and Maharashtra. And second, to examine the geographical distribution of mortality compared with various rough proxy measures of agricultural production failure....The paper also demonstrates the considerable utility of vital registration (VR) material in India...."
Correspondence: T. Dyson, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Population Studies, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

58:30160 Egolf, Brenda; Lasker, Judith; Wolf, Stewart; Potvin, Louise. The Roseto Effect: a 50-year comparison of mortality rates. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 82, No. 8, Aug 1992. 1,089-92 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
A study of comparative mortality from myocardial infarction in the Pennsylvania towns of Roseto and Bangor, begun in the 1950s, was extended to 1985. The results confirm that "Rosetans had a lower mortality rate from myocardial infarction over the course of the first 30 years, but [the rate] rose to the level of Bangor's following a period of erosion of traditionally cohesive family and community relationships [in Roseto]. This mortality-rate increase involved mainly younger Rosetan men and elderly women."
Correspondence: B. Egolf, Lehigh University, Center for Social Research, 203 East Packer Avenue, Bethlehem, PA 18015. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

58:30161 Hogg, Robert S. Indigenous mortality: placing Australian aboriginal mortality within a broader context. Working Papers in Demography, No. 29, 1991. 23 pp. Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography and Sociology: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"While contemporary patterns of adult Aboriginal mortality have been extensively examined few researchers have attempted to place these trends within a broader international context. The purpose of this article is to outline how contemporary Australian Aboriginal mortality trends differ from those exhibited by Canadian Indians and New Zealand Maoris. In particular, this paper demonstrates that although Australian Aborigines, Canadian Indians, and New Zealand Maoris have similar patterns of high adult mortality, they are generally not characterized by similar life expectancies at birth and age- and cause-specific death rates."
Correspondence: Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography, and Sociology, P.O. Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30162 Hogg, Robert S. Indigenous mortality: placing Australian Aboriginal mortality within a broader context. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 35, No. 3, Aug 1992. 335-46 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether contemporary Australian Aboriginal mortality patterns are different from those exhibited by Canadian Registered Indians, New Zealand Maoris, and American Indians and Alaskan natives." Data are from published and unpublished official sources. "Mortality patterns were compared by evaluating differences in life expectancy and in age- and cause-specific patterns of death. This analysis demonstrates that although Australian Aborigines, Canadian Registered Indians, New Zealand Maoris, and American Indians and Alaskan natives have similar patterns of high adult mortality, Australian Aborigines are generally characterized by lower life expectancies at birth and higher age- and cause-specific death rates."
Correspondence: R. S. Hogg, Canadian HIV Trials Network, 200-1033 Davie Street, Vancouver, British Columbia V6E 1M7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

58:30163 Keil, Julian E.; Sutherland, Susan E.; Knapp, Rebecca G.; Tyroler, Herman A. Does equal socioeconomic status in black and white men mean equal risk of mortality? American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 82, No. 8, Aug 1992. 1,133-6 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors test the hypothesis that mortality differences between blacks and whites in the United States would become insignificant if socioeconomic status were controlled effectively. Analysis of data from the 1960 Charleston Heart Study confirms the hypothesis for men aged 35-74 over the period 1960-1988.
Correspondence: J. E. Keil, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston Heart Study, Room 908 Harborview Towers, Charleston, SC 29425-2239. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

58:30164 Mendes de Leon, Carlos F.; Appels, Ad W. P. M.; Otten, Ferdy W. J.; Schouten, Erik G. W. Risk of mortality and coronary heart disease by marital status in middle-aged men in the Netherlands. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 21, No. 3, Jun 1992. 460-6 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The purpose of the present study was to examine prospectively the relationship between marital status and all-cause mortality and coronary disease in a representative sample of middle-aged men in the Netherlands. In addition to comparing the married with all nonmarried men, we distinguished, among the latter, between the never married, the widowed, and the divorced or separated....We confirm observations in other populations that not being married is a significant risk factor for all-cause and coronary mortality."
Correspondence: C. F. Mendes de Leon, Yale University School of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, 60 College Street, P.O. Box 3333, New Haven, CT 06510. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30165 Morawski, Marek. The excess mortality of male population at the age of 15 to 59 in Poland in the years 1970-1983: the attempt to define the causes. In: Essays on population economics in memory of Alfred Sauvy, edited by Giuseppe Gaburro and Dudley L. Poston. 1991. 73-98 pp. Casa Editrice Dott. Antonio Milani [CEDAM]: Padua, Italy. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to define the causes directly influencing the excess male mortality of [the] male population in Poland. The attempt to find quantitative relations between [an] endogenous variable, that is the excess mortality of [the] male population at the age of 15 to 59, and conceivable causes has been based on the econometric model comprising time series of the years 1970-1983."
Correspondence: M. Morawski, Central School of Planning and Statistics, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30166 Rogers, Richard G. Marital status and mortality. Population Program Working Paper, No. WP-91-2, Aug 1991. 30, [7] pp. University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program: Boulder, Colorado. In Eng.
The author examines "the relations between marital status and length of life among adults in the United States....Among the theories that have been advanced to explain the so-called marital advantage, neither status integration, marital selection, nor marital protection fully accounts for marital status differences in mortality. Rather, a socioeconomic characteristics perspective that incorporates the concepts of dependency and crowding best explains marital status differences in longevity for both whites and blacks....[Data are] from two [U.S.] national samples: the 1986 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the 1986 National Mortality Followback Survey (NMFS)."
Correspondence: University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program, Boulder, CO 80309. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30167 Rosenberg, Harry M.; Powell-Griner, Eve. New data on socio-economic differential mortality in the United States. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 215-21 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
The authors discuss the use of additional data sources for the analysis of socioeconomic mortality differentials in the United States. They describe "the Social Security Administration/Current Population Survey Matched Files, and the new variables on the main national mortality file: Occupation and industry, Hispanic origin, and educational attainment of decedent."
Correspondence: H. M. Rosenberg, U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, 6525 Belcrest Road, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30168 Rychtarikova, Jitka; Dzurova, Dagmar. Geographical mortality differentials in Czechoslovakia. The influence of selected ecological and social variables. [A Csehszlovakiai halandosag foldrajzi kulonbsegei. Az okologiai es tarsadalmi valtozok hatasa.] Demografia, Vol. 34, No. 3-4, 1991. 411-31 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun.
Detailed data on geographical differences in mortality in Czechoslovakia are presented. Consideration is give to the ecological and social factors affecting the observed trends.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30169 Smith, George D.; Egger, Matthias. Socioeconomic differences in mortality in Britain and the United States. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 82, No. 8, Aug 1992. 1,079-81 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This editorial considers recent socioeconomic differences in mortality and their causes in the United Kingdom and the United States.
Correspondence: G. D. Smith, University of Glasgow, Department of Public Health, 2 Lilybank Gardens, Glasgow G12 8RZ, Scotland. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

58:30170 Sorlie, Paul; Rogot, Eugene; Anderson, Roger; Johnson, Norman J.; Backlund, Eric. Black-white mortality differences by family income. Lancet, Vol. 340, No. 8815, Aug 8, 1992. 346-50 pp. Baltimore, Maryland/London, England. In Eng.
Reasons for the higher mortality observed among black men and women under age 75 in the United States than among whites are explored using data from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study. The results indicate that although differences in income are a major factor contributing to this mortality differential, at each level of income blacks have higher mortality than do whites. The authors suggest that "the differences in mortality rates by race not accounted for by income may be due to other differences such as access to health care, type or quality of medical care, or behavioural risk factors that disadvantage black populations."
Correspondence: P. D. Sorlie, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Federal Building, Room 3A10, Bethesda, MD 20892. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

58:30171 Takahashi, Shigesato. Population aging and dynamics in Japan: differential mortality by sex and marital status and its effect on future populations. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 47, No. 4, Jan 1992. 1-14 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
The author examines the effects of changes in mortality rates on demographic aging and marital status in Japan for the period 1985-2025. The relationship between sex differentials in mortality and population distribution by marital status is explored, and projections for the widowed population, including sex ratios, are made.
Correspondence: S. Takahashi, 787-3 Nase-chou, Tozuka-ku, Yokohama, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30172 Wilkinson, Richard G. National mortality rates: the impact of inequality? American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 82, No. 8, Aug 1992. 1,082-4 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author examines the relationship between income and various health indicators in developed countries and notes that "there is evidence of a strong relationship between national mortality rates and the scale of income differences within each society." He concludes that "rather than socioeconomic mortality differentials representing a distribution around given national average mortality rates, it is likely that the degree of income inequality indicates the burden of relative deprivation on national mortality rates."
Correspondence: R. G. Wilkinson, University of Sussex, Trafford Centre for Medical Research, Brighton BN1 9RY, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

E.7. Mortality by Cause

Studies of demographic relevance on causes of death. Studies of morbidity and of public health measures are included only if they relate specifically to mortality. Also included are maternal mortality and comparisons of causes.

58:30173 Bah, Sulaiman M. Change in cause of death structure in Mauritius and the theories of epidemiologic and health transition. Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 92-2, ISBN 0-7714-1377-7. Mar 1992. [23] pp. University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
"This paper aims to describe the evolution of [the] Mauritian epidemiologic transition over the period 1969-1986 and interpret the changes in the light of development in its epidemiologic and health care transition." This is done by means of an analysis of the changing structure of causes of death over time.
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30174 Burnley, I. H. Mortality from selected cancers in NSW and Sydney, Australia. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 35, No. 2, Jul 1992. 195-208 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This study utilizes unit list mortality data for New South Wales, Australia in differential mortality analysis, at state and local levels, and examines geographic patterns of stomach, colo-rectum, respiratory system, female breast cancer and total cancer mortality in Sydney. Associations between manual occupations, low socioeconomic status and male stomach and respiratory cancer mortality were found, as were higher mortality from stomach and respiratory cancer among European-born immigrants in manual occupations. However, unexpected associations were also found between high mortality from stomach and respiratory cancers and managerial occupations....Further, mortality variations between specific occupational groups occurred when marital status was controlled for, and the strongest variations were between married and never married males where the social isolation risk factors were presumed to be operative."
Correspondence: I. H. Burnley, University of New South Wales, School of Geography, P.O. Box 1, Kensington, NSW 2033, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

58:30175 Cardenas, Victor M.; Koopman, James S.; Garrido, Francisco J.; Bazua, Luis F.; Ibarra, Jorge M.; Stetler, Harrison C. Protective effect of antibiotics on mortality risk from acute respiratory infections in Mexican children. Bulletin of the Pan American Health Organization, Vol. 26, No. 2, 1992. 109-20 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"A case-control study of mortality from acute respiratory infections (ARI) among children under five years of age was conducted in Naucalpan, an urban-suburban area of Mexico City, and in rural localities of Tlaxcala, Mexico. The study found that ARI deaths tended to occur in the poorest neighborhoods; 78% of the deceased study subjects were infants under six months old; and 68% of the deaths occurred at home." The importance of early treatment with antibiotics is noted.
Correspondence: V. M. Cardenas, Emory University, School of Public Health, Clifton Road 1599, 4th Floor, Atlanta, GA 30322. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30176 Dye, Timothy D.; Gordon, Howard; Held, Berel; Tolliver, Nancy J.; Holmes, Alan P. Retrospective maternal mortality case ascertainment in West Virginia, 1985 to 1989. American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Vol. 167, No. 1, Jul 1992. 72-6 pp. St. Louis, Missouri. In Eng.
Ways to improve the collection of maternal mortality data are illustrated using statistics for West Virginia for the period 1985-1989. The methods used involved matching live birth records with death records for women of reproductive age to detect deaths occurring within one year of delivery.
Correspondence: T. D. Dye, West Virginia Bureau of Public Health, 1411 Virginia Street E., Charleston, WV 25301. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30177 Eaker, Elaine D.; Pinsky, Joan; Castelli, William P. Myocardial infarction and coronary death among women: psychosocial predictors from a 20-year follow-up of women in the Framingham Study. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 135, No. 8, Apr 15, 1992. 854-64 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"This paper reports on the association between various behavioral and psychological characteristics measured in disease-free [U.S.] women in 1965-1967 and the development of myocardial infarction or coronary death within the subsequent 20 years." Data are from the Framingham Study, conducted in Framingham, Massachusetts, and cover 749 women aged 45-64 years at the time of the initial examination. "This investigation revealed that loneliness, the lack of opportunity or desire to get away and relax, and perceived vulnerability to coronary heart disease are all predictors of the occurrence of myocardial infarction or coronary death in women, especially homemakers."
Correspondence: E. D. Eaker, Centers for Disease Control, Epidemiology Program Office, Division of Surveillance and Epidemiology, 1600 Clifton Road, MSC08, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

58:30178 Egidi, Viviana; Verdecchia, Arduino; Hanau, Carlo. Cancer morbidity and mortality in Italy: an assessment of trends and influence on health care and the economy. In: Essays on population economics in memory of Alfred Sauvy, edited by Giuseppe Gaburro and Dudley L. Poston. 1991. 49-72 pp. Casa Editrice Dott. Antonio Milani [CEDAM]: Padua, Italy. In Eng.
"Our aim here is to use currently available information on [developed] countries to make an estimate of the morbidity pattern (incidence and prevalence) of cancers over the past 23 years in Italy, where such data is not available." Consideration is given to duration of illness, fatality rates, and cancer incidence rates, including hospital admission rates. The authors conclude that "despite the limitations of having to combine accurate data (mortality rates) with hypothetical data, we believe that this study has managed to show the relevance and value of being better acquainted with the whole morbidity process from the onset of the disease to its final outcome (cure or death)."
Correspondence: V. Egidi, Universita degli Studi di Trieste, Faculty of Political Sciences, Piazzale Europa 1, 34127 Trieste, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30179 George, Sabu; Abel, Rajaratnam; Miller, B. D. Female infanticide in rural south India. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 27, No. 22, May 30, 1992. 1,153-6 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
"Presented here are findings on female infanticide for a rural south Indian population. These data were collected as part of a major four-year field study on child growth and survival in a 13,000 population and have been confirmed directly with the families concerned....Reported here are the demographic consequences and social factors associated with [female infanticide]. Seventy-two per cent of all female deaths were due to femicide, and misclassification of these deaths would grossly distort the significant child survival achieved by this population."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

58:30180 Hsieh, John J. Competing risks analysis of cause-specific mortality. In: American Statistical Association, 1988 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. 1988. 442-6 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
The author describes aspects of competing risks analysis of cause-specific mortality. After a brief introduction, "in section 2 we define five types of lifelengths and formulate various interval probabilities in terms of these lifelength random variables. Section 3 discusses the implication of independent risks assumption and its use in determining the nonidentifiable probabilities. In Section 4 we employ the additional assumption of piece-wise uniform distribution of these lifelength random variables to develop two methods for deriving explicit expressions for the nonidentifiable net and partial-crude probabilities...."
Correspondence: J. J. Hsieh, University of Toronto, 12 Queens Park Crescent, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A8, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30181 Kliewer, Erich V. Influence of migrants on regional variations of stomach and colon cancer mortality in the western United States. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 21, No. 3, Jun 1992. 442-9 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper examines the impact of migrants on the regional variations in stomach and colon cancer mortality in 11 western states of the U.S. The standardized stomach and colon cancer mortality ratios (SMRs) of the total White population were contrasted with those of the nonmigrant White population of each state....The findings of this study indicate that the regional distribution of stomach and colon cancer mortality in the 11 western U.S. states for the period 1979-1981 was dominated by the mortality of the migrant populations."
Correspondence: E. V. Kliewer, Australian National University, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, G.P.O. Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30182 Murphy, M.; Osmond, C. Predicting mortality from cancer of the uterine cervix from 1991-2001. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Vol. 46, No. 3, Jun 1992. 271-3 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The aim [of this study] was to provide benchmarks by which to judge the success of behaviour change and the cervical cancer screening programme in England and Wales in reducing mortality from this disease over the next decade....Log-linear models and cervical cancer mortality data by age and marital status from 1959-88 were used to predict future mortality in England and Wales....The reaggregated marital status forecasts of mortality provide an upper boundary which future observed mortality should not cross if primary and secondary prevention measures are working effectively. The method allows swift comparison of observation with expectation and therefore the rapid evaluation of the overall performance of preventive strategies."
Correspondence: M. Murphy, University of Oxford, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford OX2 6HE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30183 Platt, Stephen; Micciolo, Rocco; Tansella, Michele. Suicide and unemployment in Italy: description, analysis and interpretation of recent trends. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 34, No. 11, Jun 1992. 1,191-201 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper assesses the relationship between suicide and unemployment in Italy during the period 1977-1987, taking into account variations by gender and region. The first objective of the study is to provide descriptive longitudinal and cross-sectional aggregate-level analyses and also trends in individual-level and population risks for suicide in relation to unemployment. Our second objective is to use the Italian data to help discriminate between rival interpretations of the unemployment-suicide link, i.e. the operation of health selection or causal (susceptibility) mechanisms."
Correspondence: S. Platt, MRC Medical Sociology Unit, 6 Lilybank Gardens, Glasgow G12 8QQ, Scotland. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

58:30184 Rajulton, Fernando; Bah, Sulaiman M. Using cause of death data for estimating morbidity rates: the case of lethal infectious diseases. Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 91-12, ISBN 0-7714-1375-0. Oct 1991. 14 pp. University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
"The main aim of this paper is to modify an appropriate morbidity model for lethal infectious diseases for possible applications to a developing country setting....The model we [use] is the model of Klementiev (1977) which we...modify a little for possible applications, both in developed and developing countries."
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30185 Snow, R. W.; Armstrong, J. R. M.; Forster, D.; Winstanley, M. T.; Marsh, V. M.; Newton, C. R. J. C.; Waruiru, C.; Mwangi, I.; Winstanley, P. A.; Marsh, K. Childhood deaths in Africa: uses and limitations of verbal autopsies. Lancet, Vol. 340, No. 8815, Aug 8, 1992. 351-5 pp. Baltimore, Maryland/London, England. In Eng.
The authors assess the technique of verbal autopsy as a tool to ascertain causes of childhood death by interviewing bereaved relatives of children who were not under medical supervision at the time of death. "This technique was assessed by comparison with a prospective survey of 303 childhood deaths at a district hospital in Kenya where medically confirmed diagnoses were available." The results indicate that such techniques were relatively effective for some common causes of death but not for others, such as malaria.
Correspondence: R. W. Snow, KEMRI Coastal Unit, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

58:30186 United States. Centers for Disease Control [CDC] (Atlanta, Georgia). Trends in ischemic heart disease mortality--United States, 1980-1988. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Vol. 41, No. 30, Jul 31, 1992. 548-56 pp. Atlanta, Georgia. In Eng.
"This report summarizes an analysis by CDC to characterize trends in IHD [ischemic heart disease] mortality in the United States from 1980 through 1988 (the latest year for which data are available), and emphasizes comparisons by race and sex, region, and state."
Correspondence: Centers for Disease Control, 1600 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30187 United States. Centers for Disease Control [CDC] (Atlanta, Georgia). Trends in prostate cancer--United States, 1980-1988. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Vol. 41, No. 23, Jun 12, 1992. 401-4 pp. Atlanta, Georgia. In Eng.
Rates of prostate cancer incidence and mortality among black and white men in the United States are analyzed and compared for the period 1980-1988. "The findings in this report indicate that the incidence of prostate cancer in the United States has increased steadily since 1980, especially for white men; however, both the incidence and death rates remain higher for black men."
Correspondence: Centers for Disease Control, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30188 Welin, Lennart; Larsson, Bo; Svardsudd, Kurt; Tibblin, Bodil; Tibblin, Gosta. Social network and activities in relation to mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer and other causes: a 12 year follow up of the Study of Men Born in 1913 and 1923. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Vol. 46, No. 2, Apr 1992. 127-32 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The authors "examine the relationship between social network and activities and causes of death [using] a prospective cohort study of middle aged men examined in 1973 and followed for 12 years [in] Gothenburg, Sweden....Main outcome measures were mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer and other causes." The authors analyze the relationship between mortality and factors including baseline blood pressure, smoking habits, myocardial infarction or stroke, low level of social activities, age, poor perceived health, and low level of home activities. It is found that "well known risk factors for premature mortality like smoking, hypertension, and major cardiovascular disease are verified. Middle aged men with a good 'social network' (here measured as a high level of social, home, and outside home activities) may be partly protected against non-cancer mortality."
Correspondence: L. Welin, Ostra Hospital, Department of Medicine, Section of Preventive Medicine, S-416 85 Gothenburg, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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