D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

D.1. Past Trends

58:30062 El-Badry, M. A. Historical population estimates for Egypt: a critical review. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 31-32, 1991. 70-88 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article attempts to piece together historical population estimates for Egypt and to assess their credibility, starting from Pharaonic times and continuing through the Greek and Roman eras and the Middle Ages....While many doubts are raised concerning several of the estimates, the article suggests that population size in Egypt responded to societal conditions and that the demographic situation was at its worst during the Middle Ages. It improved only after the role of the Mamluks and the Ottomans had been terminated, early in the nineteenth century."
Correspondence: M. A. El-Badry, U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations Secretariat, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30063 Fine, Agnes; Sangoi, Jean-Claude. The French population in the nineteenth century. [La population francaise au XIXe siecle.] Que Sais-Je?, No. 2624, ISBN 2-13-044025-8. LC 92-158081. 1991. 127 pp. Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
French population trends in the nineteenth century are analyzed, with an emphasis on what made France different from most other European countries during this period of demographic transition. Separate chapters are included on the demographic transition, mortality decline, fertility decline, nuptiality and the family, migration, and the demographic situation just before World War I.
For a related study, published in 1988, see 56:30016.
Correspondence: Presses Universitaires de France, 108 boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France. Location: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, Paris, France.

58:30064 Moffat, Riley M. Population history of eastern U.S. cities and towns, 1790-1870. ISBN 0-8108-2553-8. LC 92-6364. 1992. xiii, 227 pp. Scarecrow Press: Metuchen, New Jersey/London, England. In Eng.
This publication provides population statistics for some 7,000 cities and towns in "the eastern U.S. from the Atlantic Ocean to Louisiana and Minnesota, including population figures of the decennial census of the U.S. Bureau of the Census from 1790 to 1870 as well as state and territorial censuses that separated out this data. Another significant resource [is] the descriptive national and state gazetteers, popular during this period, which often included population estimates for various communities." The data are presented in tabular format.
Correspondence: Scarecrow Press, 52 Liberty Street, P.O. Box 4167, Metuchen, NJ 08840. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30065 Taieb, Jacques. Jews in North Africa during the nineteenth century: a glance at population trends and geographic distribution. [Les Juifs du Maghreb au XIXe siecle: apercus de demographie historique et repartition geographique.] Population, Vol. 47, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1992. 85-103 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The author presents a profile of the Jewish populations of Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia using data from 1830 to the turn of the century. It is noted that Jews made up about two percent of the population of North Africa in the mid-1800s and were mainly concentrated in cities. Some comparisons with population trends during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries are also made.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30066 Whitmore, Thomas M.; Turner, B. L.; Johnson, Douglas L.; Kates, Robert W.; Gottschang, Thomas R. Long-term population change. In: The earth as transformed by human action: global and regional changes in the biosphere over the past 300 years, edited by B. L. Thomas et al. ISBN 0-521-36357-8. LC 89-22362. 1990. 25-39 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
The relationships among global population growth and environmental and spatial changes are analyzed. "The study places these...linkages in a broader perspective through an exploration of long-term population change at several spatial and temporal scales, focusing on the patterns of millennial-scale population change in four regions....A basic thesis of this study is that the scale of analysis can strongly influence interpretations of the subject....Examination of long-term population records at the regional scale reveals a common pattern of significant episodic growth and decline. Hence, within the known worlds of earlier generations, population change and regional transformation of significant magnitude occurred...."
Correspondence: T. M. Whitmore, University of North Carolina, Department of Geography, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

58:30067 Monnier, Alain. Czechoslovakia: preliminary results from the 1991 census. [Tchecoslovaquie: premiers resultats du recensement de 1991.] Population, Vol. 47, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1992. 478-82 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Preliminary results from the 1991 census of Czechoslovakia are presented. The data are given separately for each of the two constituent republics, and concern total population, fertility and mortality, and ethnic groups.
Correspondence: A. Monnier, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30068 Nigeria. Niger State. Department of Statistics, Budget and Planning (Minna, Nigeria). Projected population of Niger State by localities 1963-1992. [1991?]. 29 pp. Minna, Nigeria. In Eng.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Niger State, Nigeria, up to the year 1992. They are listed separately by district and village and are based on data from the 1963 census.
Correspondence: Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, Statistics Division, Minna, Niger State, Nigeria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30069 Peru. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica (Lima, Peru); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Peru: urban and rural population estimates and projections, 1980-2010. [Peru: estimaciones y proyecciones de la poblacion urbana y rural, 1980-2010.] Boletin de Analisis Demografico, No. 33, Mar 1992. 69 pp. Lima, Peru. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented by sex and age for the rural and urban populations of Peru from 1970 to 2010. Data are from a number of official sources including the 1981 census and the 1986 Demographic and Family Health Survey (ENDES 1986).
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica, Avenida 28 de Julio No. 1056, Lima 1, Peru. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30070 United Kingdom. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS]. Population and Hospital Statistics Division (London, England). Making a population estimate in England and Wales. OPCS Occasional Paper, No. 37, ISBN 0-904952-73-8. 1991. vii, 30 pp. London, England. In Eng.
This report describes the historical background of official population estimates for England and Wales and describes in some detail methods used during the 1980s. It also discusses how the estimates will be revised and updated to include results from the 1991 census.
Correspondence: Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, Population and Hospitals Statistics Division, St. Catherines House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30071 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York). World population monitoring 1991: with special emphasis on age structure. Population Studies, No. 126; ST/ESA/SER.A/126, Pub. Order No. E.92.XIII.2. ISBN 92-1-151240-9. 1992. xii, 241 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
This is the seventh in a series of reports prepared by the United Nations on the world population situation. "The present report consists of three main parts. Following a very brief overview, part one presents a special report on the age structure of population. Part two, 'Population trends and policies', presents the results of the monitoring of population trends and policies in population growth and structure, fertility, mortality, population distribution and international migration. In part three, the larger context of current social and economic conditions relevant to population trends and policies is summarized."
For a previous report in this series, published in 1990, see 56:30066.
Correspondence: U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30072 University of Florida. College of Business Administration. Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Population Program (Gainesville, Florida). Florida population: census summary 1990. Apr 1991. 55 pp. Gainesville, Florida. In Eng.
1990 U.S. census data for the state of Florida are presented and compared with figures for 1980. Statistics are provided on population density and population change by county, city, race, and Hispanic origin. An appendix lists alphabetically each incorporated city and town and the county in which it lies.
Correspondence: University of Florida, College of Business Administration, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Population Program, 221 Matherly Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611-2017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

58:30073 Chaudhry, Mahinder D. Population growth trends in India: 1991 census. Population and Environment, Vol. 14, No. 1, Sep 1992. 31-48 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Recent trends in the rate of population growth in India are reviewed using data from official sources, including the 1991 census. The author concludes that the rate of population growth is slowing, although not as soon or as quickly as the government had hoped. He also predicts that India will reach replacement-level fertility by around the year 2015; that the total population will exceed one billion by the year 2000; and that a stationary population of nearly two billion could be achieved by the year 2150.
Correspondence: M. D. Chaudhry, Royal Military College of Canada, Department of Political and Economic Science, Kingston, Ontario K7K 5L0, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30074 Chile. Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas [INE] (Santiago, Chile). Chile: population estimates by sex and age. Whole country and regions, 1980-2000. Population aged 0-24 years. [Chile: estimaciones de poblacion, por sexo y edad. Pais y regiones, 1980-2000. Edades simples de 0-a 24 anos.] Fasciculo E/CHI, No. 2, 1990. 180 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
This report contains estimates of annual population totals for Chile by age and sex for the period 1980-2000. The methodology used is briefly described. Totals for the country as a whole appear first, followed by those for 13 regions and the Santiago metropolitan area.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas, Casilla 7597, Correo 3, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30075 Chuparova, Stefka; Borisova, Kremena. The population of Europe and Bulgaria up to 2025. [Naselenieto na Evropa i Balgariya do 2025 godina.] Naselenie, No. 2, 1992. 100-13 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Population projections to 2025 are made for Bulgaria and Europe. Data are presented for the world, Europe by region, and Bulgaria. Special attention is given to a comparison of Bulgaria with other Eastern European countries.
Correspondence: S. Chuparova, Balgarska Akademiya na Naukite, Institut po Demografiya, ul. Akad. G. Bonchev bl. 6, 1113 Sofia, Bulgaria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30076 de Beer, J.; de Jong, A.; van Hoorn, W.; Latten, J. National Household Forecasts, 1992. [Nationale Huishoudensprognose 1992.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 40, No. 7, Jul 1992. 28-46 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Official forecasts of households in the Netherlands are presented for the period up to 2010. They include predicted changes in household size and type.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30077 de Beer, Joop. Forecasts of confidence intervals for population projections. [1991]. 25 pp. Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Population Statistics: Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper presents a method for constructing a statistical confidence interval for forecasts of total population size on the basis of an autoregressive model of forecast errors of the growth rate. The method is applied to Dutch data. It is emphasized that a confidence interval for a forecast is itself a forecast."
Correspondence: Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Population Statistics, P.O. Box 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30078 de Beer, Joop. Pros and cons of methods for national population forecasting. [1991]. 23 pp. Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Population Statistics: Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper presents a systematic, comprehensive survey of methods for assessing assumptions for national population forecasts. The pros and cons of each method are discussed. The emphasis is on practical usefulness rather than on theoretical thoroughness."
Correspondence: Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Population Statistics, P.O. Box 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30079 Edmonston, Barry; Passel, Jeffrey. Generational population projections for ethnic groups. In: American Statistical Association, 1991 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1991]. 419-24 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This paper proposes a new demographic model for examining population projections. This new model projects an initial population under conditions of fertility, mortality, and international migration (like standard cohort component models), but considers the population arrayed by generation....We apply this projection model to the next century of population growth in the United States for the Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White non-Hispanic populations...."
Correspondence: B. Edmonston, Urban Institute, 2100 M Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30080 El-Attar, Sanabel. Population forecasting: an application of Box-Jenkins technique. In: American Statistical Association, 1988 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. 1988. 305-10 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of the Box-Jenkins approach with component [methods] in forecasting conterminous United States population....The time series chosen as an input for this paper is the U.S. population estimates on July 1, 1900 to 1969."
Correspondence: S. El-Attar, Mississippi State University, P.O. Drawer DB, Mississippi State, MS 39762. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30081 European Communities. Commission. Cellule de Prospective (Luxembourg). Europe in the context of demographic change (the mandate of June 21, 1989). [L'Europe dans le mouvement demographique (mandat du 21 juin 1989).] ISBN 92-826-4165-1. 1992. 110 pp. Luxembourg. In Fre.
This report looks at future population perspectives and their effects on the countries that make up the European Community. It is based on a review of the recently published literature and on a series of lectures presented in 1989 and 1990. The first part examines population trends in developing countries, with specific reference to their consequences for the European Community. The second part looks at demographic prospects within the European Community, focusing on demographic aging and its implications.
Correspondence: European Communities, Office of Official Publications, L-2985 Luxembourg. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30082 Finland. Tilastokeskus (Helsinki, Finland). Population projection by municipality, 1991-2020. [Vaestoennuste kunnittain, 1991-2020/Befolkningsprognos kommunvis, 1991-2020.] Vaesto/Befolkning/Population 1992, No. 6, Jun 1992. 104, [6] pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Fin; Swe. with sum. in Eng.
Population projections for Finland for the period 1991-2020 are presented. Age-specific fertility rates, mortality, life expectancy, migration, total population by age and sex, and the dependency burden are predicted for Finland as a whole and for individual municipalities. A brief comparison of the total fertility rates among the countries of Scandinavia is included.
For the projection for 1988-2010, published in 1989, see 55:30090.
Correspondence: Tilastokeskus, PL 504, 00101 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30083 Keilman, Nico. Analysing ex-post observed errors in a series of population forecasts. Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 17, No. 4, 1991. 411-32 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"In this paper I have demonstrated how a separation model can be used to analyse ex-post observed forecast errors, when a series of population forecasts is available. The model was applied to the fertility results in the nine population forecasts that the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics (NCBS) produced between 1950 and 1980." The author concludes that "the accuracy of fertility forecasts does not generally decrease with growing length of forecast period--such an effect was only found for periods in which population growth is strong."
Correspondence: N. Keilman, Central Bureau of Statistics, P.O. Box 8131 Dep., N-0033 Oslo 1, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30084 Kondrat, Wladyslaw; Rakowski, Witold. Demographic projections for Warsaw voivodship to the year 2000. [Prognoza demograficzna wojewodztwa stolecznego do 2000 roku.] Biuletyn IGS, Vol. 32, No. 3, 1989. 72-91, 351-2, 357-8 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The authors present population projections to the year 2000 for the voivodship of Warsaw, Poland. Consideration is given to natural increase and migration. Some recommendations for future social and economic policies are made.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30085 Michev, Nikolai. Methods of population projection by populated areas and territorial units. [Metodi za prognozirane na naselenieto po naseleni mesta i teritorialni edinitsi.] Naselenie, No. 1, 1992. 43-55 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author reviews various methods for population forecasting by region. The geographical scope is worldwide.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30086 Pflaumer, Peter. The accuracy of U.N. population projections. In: American Statistical Association, 1988 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. 1988. 299-304 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"In this paper the accuracy of U.N. population projections is examined. Our goal is to measure the amount of uncertainty associated with past projections of the United Nations in order to provide a realistic measure of the uncertainty in the projections that the U.N. makes in the future....Our paper also presents various descriptive measures of the forecast error data set and applies methods from exploratory data analysis and cluster analysis....Our data consists of the medium variant of projections made by the U.N. between 1960 and 1980 for 101 countries...."
Correspondence: P. Pflaumer, Herzogweg 12, D-7033 Herrenberg, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30087 Rogers, Andrei. A native-dependent birthplace-specific multiregional model of the United States population. Population Program Working Paper, No. WP-91-4, Jun 1991. 23, [10] pp. University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program: Boulder, Colorado. In Eng.
The author uses a multiregional model of the U.S. population to "produce disaggregated [population] projections that follow the evolution of birthplace-specific populations over time and space."
Correspondence: University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program, Boulder, CO 80309. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30088 Romaniuc, Anatole. Population projections for prediction, simulation, and prospective analysis. [Bevolkerungsvorausschatzungen als Voraussage, Simulation und Zukunftsanalyse.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 17, No. 4, 1991. 395-410 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"After discussing the concept of predictability in projection, the paper addresses issues of practical importance to the producers of projections. Theoretical frameworks such as logistic growth, demographic transition and the probabalistic conceptualization of demographic events are considered in terms of their relevance to population forecasting. From a programme management point of view, a challenging question is raised as to how to enhance analytical capability so as to enable formulation of plausible assumptions about the future, while at the same time increasing the operational efficiency of the model in order to minimize costs....The emphasis is on projections as an instrument of 'creating' rather than 'discovering' the future." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: A. Romaniuc, Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Ottawa, Ontario K1V 6N8, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30089 Sommer, Bettina. Population trends up to 2030: results of the seventh coordinated population projections. [Entwicklung der Bevolkerung bis 2030: Ergebnis der siebten koordinierten Bevolkerungsvorausberechnung.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 4, Apr 1992. 217-22 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Results of coordinated population projections prepared by the states and the Federal Statistical Office of Germany are presented up to the year 2030. The assumptions and sources of data used are first described. Projections by age group for Germany as a whole and for the areas that were formerly East and West Germany are then discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

58:30090 Tapinos, Georges. France in two generations: population and society in the first third of the twenty-first century. [La France dans deux generations: population et societe dans le premier tiers du XXIe siecle.] ISBN 2-213-02888-0. May 1992. 360 pp. Fayard: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is a collection of papers by various authors examining possible population trends and their implications in France over the next two generations. The book attempts to put these trends in perspective, recognize the margin of uncertainty affecting the projections, analyze the implications of the projected changes, and consider the possibility of developing influential policies. Other topics addressed include changes in family and household characteristics, mortality, and immigration; labor force, retirement, and family policy; ethnic composition and the future of the Muslim population of France; and regional differences.
Correspondence: Libraire Artheme Fayard, 75 rue des Saints-Peres, 75006 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30091 Texmon, Inger. Population projections 1987-2050: national and regional figures. Statistisk Sentralbyra Interne Notater, No. 89/28, Aug 3, 1989. 119 pp. Statistisk Sentralbyra: Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Eng. with sum. in Nor.
"This collection of tables contains population projections [for Norway] by sex, age and regions. Data for the whole country are given up to the year 2050, while data for counties and municipalities are given up to the year 2015. The projections are produced in four alternatives, of which only one is presented on the regional level."
Correspondence: Statistisk Sentralbyra, P.B. 8131 DEP, Oslo 1, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

58:30092 Garcia Sanz, Benjamin. The Spanish population: an ecological perspective. [Poblacion espanola: un enfoque ecologico.] Boletin de la Asociacion de Demografia Historica, Vol. 10, No. 1, 1992. 59-87 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
Trends in population growth in Spain since the 1950s are analyzed. The focus is on changes in rural spatial distribution and in the amount of land devoted to agriculture.
Correspondence: B. Garcia Sanz, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30093 Horiuchi, Shiro. Stagnation in the decline of the world population growth rate during the 1980s. Science, Vol. 257, No. 5071, Aug 7, 1992. 761-5 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The world human population growth rate after World War II passed through three phases: the rise in the 1950s and 1960s, the fall (though still at a positive level) in the 1970s, and the plateau in the 1980s. The rise was produced by the global decline in death rates, the fall was mainly due to the reduction of fertility in a number of developing countries, and the stagnation of growth rate decline was attributable to three major factors. First, substantial fertility declines started around 1970 and stalled around 1980 in both China and India. Second, the age structure of population changed in favor of higher birth rates. Third, although fertility started to decline significantly around 1970 mainly in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, few countries have begun fertility declines since then."
Correspondence: S. Horiuchi, Rockefeller University, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10021-6399. Location: Princeton University Library (SQ).

58:30094 Stankuniene, V.; Sipaviciene, A. Population trends and demographic problems in Lithuania. [Evolution de la population et problemes demographiques en Lituanie.] Population, Vol. 47, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1992. 211-8 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Population trends since 1897 in Lithuania are reviewed. The authors describe the effects of World War II on age structure and fertility and detail recent trends in fertility and infant mortality. The government's attempts to stimulate population growth by enacting pronatalist policies are noted. Data are from official sources.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30095 Stokowski, Franciszek. Past trends in demographic development in Warsaw voivodship. [Dotychczasowe trendy rozwoju demograficznego woj. stolecznego.] Biuletyn IGS, Vol. 32, No. 3, 1989. 60-71, 351, 357 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Population size and growth in the voivodship of Warsaw, Poland, are described using data for the period 1950-1987. Factors considered include age, sex, fertility, natural increase, and migration. Data are provided separately for urban and rural areas.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:30096 Traikov, Toni. Regional trends in natural increase in Bulgaria. [Geografski osobenosti i tendentsii v savremennoto razvitie na estestveniya prirast na naselenieto v Balgariya.] Naselenie, No. 2, 1992. 31-8 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Rates and trends of natural increase in Bulgaria are examined and compared by region for the period 1986-1988. The effect of political shifts, particularly of land reforms, on population redistribution and employment is also analyzed.
Correspondence: T. Traikov, Balgarska Akademiya na Naukite, Geografski Institut, ul. Akad. G. Bonchev bl. 6, 1113 Sofia, Bulgaria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).