Volume 58 - Number 2 - Summer 1992

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

58:20076 Guilmoto, Christophe Z. A century of Tamil demography: the development of the population of Tamil Nadu from 1871 to 1981. [Un siecle de demographie tamoule: l'evolution de la population du Tamil Nadu de 1871 a 1981.] Les Etudes du CEPED, No. 4, ISBN 2-87762-040-9. Mar 1992. viii, 167 pp. Centre Francais sur la Population et le Developpement [CEPED]: Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
This study is based on a doctoral dissertation on the demography of the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu during the period 1871-1981. Data are from official sources, including both the census and vital statistics. The study is in three parts. The first describes the period 1871-1921 and its high levels of fertility and mortality, which were affected by periodic crises such as epidemics or famines; the second focuses on the period of transition, 1921-1951, identified primarily by a decline in mortality and accelerating urbanization; and the third deals with the period since 1951, characterized by continuing declines in mortality and fertility, following a brief increase in the early 1950s. Comparisons are made with other parts of India.
Correspondence: Centre Francais sur la Population et le Developpement, 15 rue de l'Ecole de Medecine, 75270 Paris Cedex 06, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20077 Macias Hernandez, Antonio M. The demography of an Atlantic island population. Grand Canary, 1680-1850. [La demografia de una poblacion insular atlantica. Gran Canaria, 1680-1850.] Boletin de la Asociacion de Demografia Historica, Vol. 9, No. 3, 1991. 49-65 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
The author applies inverse projection methods to data from baptism and death records for the parishes of the island of Grand Canary from 1680 up to the cholera epidemic of 1851. The relationships among the economy, migration, and other demographic parameters for this isolated population are assessed. He concludes that the island population was not greatly affected by emigration to the Americas until the late eighteenth century, and that a high birth rate combined with low levels of mortality wreaked havoc with the local economy.
Correspondence: A. M. Macias Hernandez, Catedral, 18 Edificio Aries F-29, La Laguna, Santa Cruz Tenerife, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20078 Wood, J. David. The population of Ontario: a study of the foundation of a social geography. In: A social geography of Canada, edited by Guy M. Robinson. 1991. 92-137 pp. Dundurn Press: Toronto, Canada/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This essay reconstructs changes in distribution and composition of the population, from the earliest European settlement to the present, in an attempt to lay a foundation for social geographies of Ontario. There is an emphasis on the first century of the settlement when many persistent and fundamental social and political realities were established. The main themes taken up in this essay are, in order, the initiation of the European agricultural settlement, chronological variations in the size of the population, changes in its distributions and composition and, finally, some theoretical propositions bearing on the social geography."
Correspondence: J. D. Wood, York University, Joseph E. Atkinson College, Department of Geography, 4700 Keele Street, North York, Ontario M3J 1P3, Canada. Location: New York Public Library.

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

58:20079 Barrett, Hazel; O'Hare, Greg. India counts its people. Geography, Vol. 77, Pt. 2, No. 335, Apr 1992. 170-4 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
Provisional results from the 1991 census of India are summarized. The focus is on differences in population trends among the 15 largest states. A continuing decline in the sex ratio, particularly in the northern states, is noted as a major problem that stems from the low status of women.
Correspondence: H. Barrett, Coventry Polytechnic, Priory Street, Coventry CV1 5FB, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

58:20080 Belgium. Institut National de Statistique (Brussels, Belgium). Population on January 1, 1991. [Population au 1 janvier 1991.] Statistiques Demographiques, No. 1, 1992. 99-179 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
Population estimates are presented for Belgium for 1991. The estimates are provided separately by region; by age, sex, and marital status; and for Belgian nationals and foreigners.
Correspondence: Institut National de Statistique, Rue de Louvain 44, Centre Albert, 8e etage, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20081 Brown, Warren A.; Scardamalia, Robert. Estimating county population by age, sex and race: a state perspective. Population and Development Program: 1990 Working Paper Series, No. 2.03, Aug 1991. 6 pp. Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program: Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
The authors review a methodology used by the U.S. Census Bureau to prepare national estimates of county population by age, sex, and race. They then evaluate its applicability to preparing state estimates of county population, using data for New York State.
Correspondence: Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program, 134 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20082 Canada. Statistics Canada (Ottawa, Canada). Postcensal estimates of families, Canada, provinces and territories, June 1, 1991. [Estimations postcensitaires des familles, Canada, provinces et territoires ler juin 1991.] Pub. Order No. 91-204. Dec 1991. 31 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
Estimates of the number and characteristics of families in Canada are presented using data from the 1986 census. The estimates are provided for the whole country, provinces, and territories.
Correspondence: Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: New York Public Library.

58:20083 Guatemala. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica [INE] (Guatemala City, Guatemala). Guatemala: urban and rural population estimated by department and municipality, 1990-1995. [Guatemala: poblacion urbana y rural estimada por departamento y municipio 1990-95.] Publicaciones Estadisticas Tematicas, No. 2.11.4, Feb 1991. 73 pp. Guatemala City, Guatemala. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Guatemala for the period 1990-1995. They are provided separately for rural and urban populations and by department and municipality.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Edificio America, 8a calle 9-55, zona 1, Guatemala City, Guatemala. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20084 Heidenreich, Hans-Joachim. First results of the microcensus, April 1990. [Erste Ergebnisse des Mikrozensus, April 1990.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 11, Nov 1991. 715-9 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Preliminary results of the April 1990 microcensus of West Germany are presented, and changes in methodology since previous microcensuses are described. Particular attention is given to employment data.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

58:20085 Hirosima, Kiyosi; Shiraishi, Noriko. Current status of postcensal population estimation by prefecture. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 47, No. 2, Jul 1991. 73-9 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
A critical review is presented of current official Japanese population estimates by prefecture. Wide differences in the quality and availability of these estimates are noted. The authors suggest a need for stricter standards and improvements in the Basic Residents Register to include non-Japanese residents.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20086 Huguet, Jerrold W. The demographic situation in Cambodia. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, Vol. 6, No. 4, Dec 1991. 79-91 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
The demographic situation in Cambodia is described. Various estimates made by official bodies are used, since very little statistical data exists for the country. Estimates are provided for age and sex distribution, spatial distribution, the disabled population, widowed and separated women, numbers of displaced persons by province, and number of returnees expected from camps in neighboring Thailand.
Correspondence: J. W. Huguet, U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, United Nations Building, Rajdamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20087 Jamison, Ellen. World population profile: 1991. No. WP-91, Dec 1991. 49, [62] pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents the U.S. Census Bureau's latest update of population estimates and projections for all the countries and regions of the world. It includes information on population growth, fertility, mortality, and use of contraception. A special section focuses on population density."
For a previous report by the same author for 1989, see 56:20077.
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20088 Levy, Michel L. States and regions. [Lander et regions.] Population et Societes, No. 267, Apr 1992. [1-3] pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
A brief summary of population totals and density is provided for the 16 states and 26 administrative districts of Germany. Data are from official sources.
Correspondence: M. L. Levy, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20089 Pitkin, John R. A comparison of vendor estimates of population and households with 1990 census counts in California. Applied Demography, Vol. 7, No. 1, Spring 1992. 5-8 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This study compares the 1990 [U.S.] population estimates of four national demographic data vendors with the actual counts of the 1990 Census. It was performed for a consortium of three public utility companies [in California]....In addition to total population, this study evaluates the estimates of three other demographic variables...: number of households, population of Spanish origin and white population....Differences in accuracy are found among the vendors and between variables....On average, the estimates were most accurate for total population, considerably less so for race (white population) and households and by far the least accurate for Hispanic population."
Correspondence: J. R. Pitkin, Analysis and Forecasting Incorporated, P.O. Box 415, Cambridge, MA 02238. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

58:20090 Alho, Juha M. Stochastic methods in population forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 6, No. 4, Dec 1990. 521-30 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper presents a stochastic version of the demographic cohort-component method of forecasting future population. In this model the sizes of future age-sex groups are non-linear functions of random future vital rates. An approximation to their joint distribution can be obtained using linear approximations or simulation. A stochastic formulation points to the need for new empirical work on both the autocorrelations and the cross-correlations of the vital rates. Problems of forecasting declining mortality and fluctuating fertility are contrasted. A volatility measure for fertility is presented. The model can be used to calculate approximate prediction intervals for births using data from deterministic cohort-component forecasts. The paper compares the use of expert opinion in mortality forecasting with simple extrapolation techniques to see how useful each approach has been in the past. Data from the United States suggest that expert opinion may have caused systematic bias in the forecasts."
Correspondence: J. M. Alho, University of Illinois, Institute for Environmental Studies and Department of Statistics, Urbana, IL 61801. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

58:20091 Atoh, Makoto; Kaneko, Ryuichi; Ishikawa, Akira; Mita, Fusami. Population projections for Japan: 1990-2025 (provisional). Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 47, No. 2, Jul 1991. 61-72 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Provisional population projections for Japan are presented using 1991 data for the period up to 2025, with some additional projections up to 2090. The projections take into account recent declines in fertility and increases in longevity.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20092 Bell, Martin. Demographic projections and forecasts in Australia: a directory and digest. Pub. Order No. 92 1212 2. ISBN 0-644-24569-7. 1992. xvi, 179 pp. Bureau of Immigration Research: South Carlton, Australia. In Eng.
This work is intended as a guide to 139 sets of published demographic projections and forecasts concerning the population of Australia. "The publication is divided into three main parts. Part A is a review that traces the evolution of demographic forecasting in Australia, provides an overview of the current 'state of the art' and suggests a number of avenues for future development of demographic projection activity. Part B describes the scope and coverage of the directory and summarises the range and types of projections which are available; it also incorporates a series of six separate indexes to the directory entries in Part C. Part C is the main body of the directory which describes the available projections." Ordering information is included.
Correspondence: Australian Government Publishing Service, c/o International Specialized Book Services, Inc., 5602 NE Hassalo Street, Portland, OR 97213. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20093 Bourcier de Carbon, Philippe. Population projections for metropolitan France: fertility trends and their implications to the year 2015. [Projection de la population de la metropole: ordre de grandeur et implications a l'horizon 2015 selon la fecondite.] Population et Avenir, No. 606, Jan-Feb 1992. 2-7 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Preliminary projections of the population of France to the year 2015 are formulated using first results from the 1990 census. The author concludes that the increasing financial burden placed on the working-age population by demographic aging could lead to a further decrease in fertility, thus exacerbating the problem.
Correspondence: P. Bourcier de Carbon, Population et Avenir, 35 rue Marbeuf, Paris 75008, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20094 Ciucci, Luciano. A methodological aspect of projecting the elderly population: errors due to aggregation of the last ages. [Un aspetto metodologico della proiezione della popolazione anziana: l'errore dovuto all'aggregazione delle ultime eta.] Materiali di Studi e di Ricerche, No. 1, Nov 1991. 32 pp. Universita degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche: Rome, Italy. In Ita.
Problems concerning the projection of the elderly population are illustrated using Italian data. The focus is on problems caused by aggregating data on the oldest individuals and treating them as a homogeneous group regarding age.
Correspondence: Universita degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, Via Nomentana 41, 00161 Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20095 Congdon, Peter. Multiregional demographic projections in practice: a metropolitan example. Regional Studies, Vol. 26, No. 2, 1992. 177-91 pp. Abingdon, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"This paper examines options for local and regional projections which reflect both demographic interdependencies with jobs and housing at this area scale, and the inapplicability of traditional demographic projection methods to population or areal subdivisions. This context for local demographic projections requires constraints (for example, to job and housing forecasts or to higher area totals), the use of proxy or explanatory indicators to predict demographic rates or totals, and parameterization of demographic schedules, to facilitate comparison across numerous localities and to set future assumptions about demographic components. The traditional framework of self-contained projection by deterministic cohort survival is therefore widened to include regio-scientific and stochastic modelling concepts. The framework for empirical analysis is London [England] and its boroughs."
Correspondence: P. Congdon, London Research Centre, Demographic and Statistical Studies, 81 Black Prince Road, London SE1 7SZ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

58:20096 Courgeau, Daniel. Projections that include migration. [Perspectives avec migrations.] Population, Vol. 46, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1991. 1,513-30 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The author describes projection methods that consider migration flows, including continuous-time and discrete-time models. He finds that "although these methods do not result in stable populations, they make it possible to disentangle the interactions that exist between populations of different regions and to show the consequences of this distribution. The methods should be generalized...to apply to populations disaggregated into sub-groups, e.g. age groups, occupational groups, or marital status groups."
Correspondence: D. Courgeau, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20097 de Beer, J. Forecast intervals of population size. [Prognose-interval voor bevolkingsomvang.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 40, No. 4, Apr 1992. 34-50 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"This article describes a method for assessing a statistical confidence interval of future population size. The method is based on an autoregressive model of forecast errors of the population growth rate. An English-language version of this article is available upon request (address: Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Population Statistics, P.O. Box 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg)."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20098 de Beer, J. Uncertainty in population forecasts. [Onzekerheid in bevolkingsprognoses.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 40, No. 3, Mar 1992. 25-35 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The author discusses two means of accounting for uncertainty in population forecasting. The first method makes assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration for a limited period of time. The second covers confidence intervals between low, medium, and high variants. The geographical scope is worldwide, with some assumptions based on data for the Netherlands.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20099 Dittmann, Pawel. Disaggregation methods of population forecasting. [Metody dezagregacji prognoz demograficznych.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 66, ISBN 83-7011-065-7. LC 90-207729. 1990. 119 pp. Akademia Ekonomiczna imienia Oskara Langego: Wroclaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Rus.
This work deals with population projections and forecasts involving the disaggregation of aggregate variables. The first chapter looks at the objectives of population forecasting and at the variables. The second chapter focuses on the disaggregation problem in forecasting. The third chapter considers the available data, and the fourth describes disaggregation method construction. In Chapter 5 some results of applying these methods are illustrated with actual data from Poland.
Correspondence: Akademia Ekonomiczna imienia Oskara Langego, ul. Komandorska 118/120, 53-345 Wroclaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20100 Festy, Patrick. Principles and practice of population projections: six research assignments. [Principes et pratique des perspectives demographiques: six sujets corriges.] Population, Vol. 46, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1991. 1,689-710 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Six assignments in demographic projection taken from Roland Pressat's study "Pratique de la Demographie" are discussed. The author observes that these assignments "illustrate successively the importance of assumptions in determining future population, the application of techniques of analysis which convert raw data into indices, and the relationship between the renewal element in a population and its stock." Data used in examples concern the United States, the USSR, and member countries of the International Statistical Institute.
Correspondence: P. Festy, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20101 Fratczak, Ewa; Jozwiak, Janina. Demographic trends and the pension system in Poland--a model approach. Polish Population Review, No. 1, 1991. 11-58 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
This "article presents the results of projections of the population of Poland by age, sex and marital status till 2050 under different scenarios of fertility, mortality and nuptiality. These results are used for the analysis of future pension expenditures, the number of retirees, the labour force, and the relation between contributions and benefits. Past demographic trends and the development of social security in the post-war period in Poland are discussed as well."
Correspondence: E. Fratczak, Warsaw School of Economics, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Al. Niepodleglosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20102 Friesen, Wardlow. Local area population projections for planning purposes. New Zealand Population Review, Vol. 17, No. 2, Nov 1991. 74-85 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
The author outlines methods for making population projections at the local level, with a focus on the use of these data for planning. Data for the Auckland, New Zealand, metropolitan area are used as an illustration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20103 Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio; del Hoyo, Juan. Analysis and prediction of the population in Spain: 1910-2000. Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 10, No. 4, Jul 1991. 347-69 pp. New York, New York/Chichester, England. In Eng.
"The starting hypothesis of this paper was the actual occurrence of important interactions between demographic and socio-economic factors when trying to reach population forecasts that may be more efficient than those obtained by mere extrapolative methods. In order to be able to implement this approach to the Spanish case it has been necessary to reconstruct first the Spanish population series by age and sex groups from 1910 to 1980. Later, we proceed to obtain population forecasts using alternative modeling strategies and comment on the potential problems that the new demographic situation may have for future public policy."
Correspondence: A. Garcia-Ferrer, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Departamento de Analisis Economico, Cantoblanco, 28049 Madrid, Spain. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

58:20104 New Zealand. Department of Statistics (Wellington, New Zealand). Population, labour force and household projections, 1991-2031. Pub. Order No. 03.027.0091. ISBN 0-447-06479-5. 1991. 99 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
"This publication presents the latest official projections of the New Zealand population, labour force and household numbers produced by the Department of Statistics. They have as their base the total New Zealand population at 31 March 1988, and cover the period 1991-2031."
Correspondence: Department of Statistics, Private Bag, Wellington, New Zealand. Location: New York Public Library.

58:20105 Rao, N. Bhaskara. India 2021. Apr 1989. v, 135 pp. Operations Research Group: Baroda, India. In Eng.
The author provides a demographic profile of India to the year 2021, focusing on the country's prospects for reaching its development goals. The key issues affecting the achievement of these objectives are identified as population growth and rapid urbanization. The author concludes that full employment and the near abolition of poverty are not realistic goals by the year 2000, given current demographic trends. However, objectives in these areas may be reachable some 15-20 years later. Data are from official and other published sources.
Correspondence: Operations Research Group, Baroda 390 007, India. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

58:20106 Secomski, Kazimierz; Dzienio, Kazimierz. The demographic development of Poland up to the year 2020. [Rozwoj demograficzny Polski do 2020 roku.] Seria Raporty Tematyczne, No. 2, ISBN 83-01-08805-2. LC 88-213007. 1988. 31 pp. Panstwowe Wydawnictwo Naukowe: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol.
Results are presented from a projection of Poland's population according to three variants (low, medium, and high) to 2020. The focus of the analysis is on the size and structure of the school-age population. Predicted changes in the size of the population aged 3-18 and differences across voivodships are discussed in detail. Recommendations for policymakers are formulated on the basis of the projections.
Correspondence: Panstwowe Wydawnictwo Naukowe, ul. Pachonskiego 5, 31-112 Krakow, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20107 Smith, Stanley K.; Bayya, Ravi. An evaluation of population forecast errors for Florida and its counties. Applied Demography, Vol. 7, No. 1, Spring 1992. 1-5 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors evaluate the forecasting accuracy of population projections formulated at state and county levels for Florida. They find that "projections of Florida population made in the 1970s and 1980s had errors...of approximately 2-3 percent for 5-year horizons, 5-6 percent for 10-year horizons and 8-9 percent for 15-year horizons. County projections had errors averaging approximately 5, 10 and 15 percent for these three lengths of horizon, respectively. Based on comparisons with other studies of state and substate population projections, we believe this is a good record of forecast accuracy...."
Correspondence: S. K. Smith, University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Gainesville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20108 Tumkaya, N. Report of workshop on population projections. Mar 1988. xxi, 62 pp. Central Statistics Office: Gaborone, Botswana. In Eng.
This is the report of a workshop on population projection held in Gaborone, Botswana, December 14-17, 1987. The purpose was to describe national population projections developed for Botswana and to make the data available to other branches of government for planning purposes.
Correspondence: Central Statistics Office, Private Bag 0024, Gaborone, Botswana. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20109 Umbach, Eberhard. Population trends and living conditions in the Federal Republic of Germany up to the year 2040. [Bevolkerungsentwicklung und Lebensbedingungen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland bis zum Jahre 2040.] Soziologische Forschungen, No. 17, ISBN 3-7983-1273-7. 1989. xii, 162 pp. Technische Universitat Berlin, Institut fur Soziologie: Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This is the final report on a project designed to develop projections of the impact of population decline on living conditions in West Germany up to the year 2040. The goals, preparation, implementation, and methodology of the project are first described. Socioeconomic and demographic conditions in 1980 are then reviewed, and variant scenarios for the period 1981-2040 are presented. Factors considered include the economy and labor market, old-age and health insurance, education, urban areas, the environment, regional trends, land use, housing, leisure time, and political conflict.
Correspondence: E. Umbach, Universitat Osnabruck, Fachbereich Mathematik/Informatik, Angewandte Systemwissenschaft, Postfach 4469, D-W-4500 Osnabruck, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20110 van Imhoff, Evert. A general characterization of consistency algorithms in multidimensional demographic projection models. Population Studies, Vol. 46, No. 1, Mar 1992. 159-69 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Demographic projection models describe the development over time of the population in terms of events. A consistency problem arises if projected numbers of events are required to satisfy certain constraints; the consistency problem can be seen as a generalization of the well-known two-sex problem in nuptiality models. This paper presents a very general characterization of consistency problems, using matrix notation, as well as a slightly less general algorithm to solve them. The preferred specification of the objective function to be minimized by the algorithm leads to a solution that can be interpreted as a generalization of the harmonic-mean approach." The author describes the implementation of the proposed consistency algorithm in the computer program LIPRO.
Correspondence: E. van Imhoff, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20111 Youssef, Habel. Population projections by age and sex for Algeria, 1987-2022. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC Annual Seminar, 1990. 1991. 503-23 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
Population projections for Algeria are presented by age and sex up to the year 2022 using official census and survey data.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

58:20112 Goodenough, Richard. The nature and implications of recent population growth in California. Geography, Vol. 77, Pt. 2, No. 335, Apr 1992. 123-33 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
"The rate of population growth and associated economic growth has placed enormous demands on Californian resources of land, air and water. Recent figures reveal a dramatic regional shift of the population away from the main urban concentrations towards remote rural locations. This has resulted in a significant conversion of farmland to non-agricultural uses and generated a changing attitude towards growth management. The assumption that population growth and economic development bring entirely positive effects is being questioned at a time when the Californian environment and quality of life is under severe pressure."
Correspondence: R. Goodenough, Christ Church College, Department of Geography, Canterbury, Kent CT1 1QU, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

58:20113 Israel. Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. Demographic Center (Jerusalem, Israel). Population trends and policies in Israel. In: World Jewish population: trends and policies, edited by Sergio DellaPergola and Leah Cohen. 1992. 253-67 pp. Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Institute of Contemporary Jewry, Division of Jewish Demography and Statistics: Jerusalem, Israel; Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, Demographic Center: Jerusalem, Israel. In Eng.
This review of recent population trends and policies in Israel is concerned with natural increase in the Jewish population excluding the contribution of international migration. Separate consideration is given to nuptiality and family patterns, fertility and abortion, and demographic aging. The study also examines population policy in Israel, including policies adopted in 1986 and future policy options. Pronatalist and family policies from other countries that might be adopted by Israel are discussed.
Correspondence: Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, Demographic Center, 10 Yad Haruzim Street, Box 1260, 91000 Jerusalem, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20114 Levy, Michel L. From 54 to 57 million inhabitants. [De 54 a 57 millions d'habitants.] Population et Societes, No. 266, Mar 1992. [3] pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Recently published official demographic statistics released for France for 1991 are reviewed. Trends over the period 1982-1991 are also summarized.
Correspondence: M. L. Levy, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20115 Ordorica Mellado, Manuel. Adjustment of an expologistic function to the evolution of Mexico's total population, 1930-1945. [Ajuste de una funcion expologistica a la evolucion de la poblacion total de Mexico, 1930-1985.] Estudios Demograficos y Urbanos, Vol. 5, No. 3, Sep-Dec 1990. 373-86, 819 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
The author makes the case that none of the mathematical models currently in use for estimating population dynamics can be suitably applied to Mexico's natural growth "due to the fact that the assumptions underlying [their] mathematical representations do not correspond to the observed dynamics of the components of natural growth. The purpose of this article is to adjust a mathematical function to the evolution of Mexico's total population between 1930 and 1985, adequately reproducing the evolution of natality and mortality observed in that period."
Correspondence: M. Ordorica Mellado, El Colegio de Mexico, Centro de Estudios Demograficos y de Desarrollo Urbano, Camino al Ajusco 20, 10740 Mexico City, DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20116 Varillas Montenegro, Alberto; Mostajo de Muente, Patricia. The Peruvian population: overview and prospects. [La situacion poblacional peruana: balance y perspectivas.] 1990. xvi, 524 pp. Instituto Andino de Estudios en Poblacion y Desarrollo [INANDEP]: Lima, Peru. In Spa.
The authors presents an overview of the population of Peru, its current problems, and possible future development. The first section outlines Peru's demographic history from pre-Spanish times to 1985. Modern population growth is then discussed from a political perspective, taking into account development planning, family planning programs, and the influence of the Catholic church. Population projections to the year 2025 are then presented. A discussion of expected quality of life if the population continues to grow at current rates is included.
Correspondence: Instituto Andino de Estudios en Poblacion y Desarrollo, Calle Lola Pardo Vargas 325, Miraflores, Lima 18, Peru. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


Copyright © 1992-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.