58:10709 Barr,
Thomas H. Approximation for age-structured population
models using projection methods. Computers and Mathematics with
Applications, Vol. 21, No. 5, 1991. 17-40 pp. Exeter, England. In Eng.
"In this paper we present a class of rapidly convergent numerical
schemes to solve the Sharpe-Lotka model equation from age-dependent
population dynamics. This work is based on spline approximation
techniques described by Banks and Kappel for functional differential
equations. We provide a motivation for and description of a
generalized problem which under suitable conditions is equivalent to
the Sharpe-Lotka problem, we describe approximation in general which
exploits the Hilbert space structure in which the generalized problem
is set, and for a particular space of approximating functions we obtain
estimates on the rates of convergence."
Correspondence: T.
H. Barr, Rhodes College, Department of Mathematics and Computer
Science, Memphis, TN 38112-1690. Location: Princeton
University Library (ST).
58:10710 Becker,
Nikolaus; Rittgen, Werner. Fitting cancer mortality data
with cumulative damage models. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 108,
No. 1, Feb 1992. 57-73 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Cumulative
damage models conceive the epidemiologically observed aspects of
carcinogenesis as some kind of total balance over a complex biological
process and suggest that this total balance might behave as a
wear-and-tear process. The essential concepts of this mechanistic
model are exposure to a carcinogenically damaging environment and
resistance of a host system against those damages. Intensity of
exposure and magnitude of host resistance are the parameters to be
assessed. The paper describes (1) the statistical methods for fitting
this model to birth cohort data; (2) for which cancer sites the model
provides acceptable fits and for which it does not; and (3) how model
extensions provide improvements in the goodness of fit....The data used
for this investigation are the [Federal Republic of Germany] statistics
for causes of death that are available for the period
1952-1985."
Correspondence: N. Becker, German Cancer
Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, Heidelberg, Germany.
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).
58:10711 Blythe, S.
P. Heterogeneous sexual mixing in populations with
arbitrarily connected multiple groups. Mathematical Population
Studies, Vol. 3, No. 3, 1992. 173-88, 227 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
with sum. in Fre.
"A simple procedure for constructing
[social/sexual] mixing models for arbitrarily classified (e.g. by sex,
age, geographical location, sexual preference) populations is outlined,
including a scheme for finding the number of independent mixing
parameters required, and a simple (linear algebra) means for finding
the values of the dependent mixing parameters. Various worked examples
are presented, including the two-sex problem and structured and
selective mixing." The use of the models for analyzing mixing
structures for AIDS transmission is
assessed.
Correspondence: S. P. Blythe, University of
Strathclyde, Department of Statistics and Modeling Science, Glasgow G1
1XH, Scotland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:10712 Blythe,
Stephen P.; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos; Casella, George.
Empirical methods for the estimation of the mixing probabilities
for socially structured populations from a single survey sample.
Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 3, 1992. 199-225, 227 pp.
Reading, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The role of
variability of sexual behavior in the transmission dynamics of HIV and
AIDS has been illustrated, through the use of mathematical models, by
several investigators....In this paper we describe some practical
methods for estimating the deviations from random mixing from a single
survey sample....We include a description of the role of the estimated
mixing probabilities in models for the spread of HIV, a discussion of
alternatives and possible extensions of the methods described in this
article, and an outline of future directions of
research."
Correspondence: C. Castillo-Chavez, Cornell
University, Biometrics Unit/Center for Applied Mathematics, Ithaca, NY
14853. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:10713 Busenberg,
Stavros; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos. A general solution of
the problem of mixing of subpopulations, and its application to risk-
and age-structured epidemic models for the spread of AIDS.
Population and Development Program: 1990 Working Paper Series, No.
2.04, 1990. 37 pp. Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology:
Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
This study is concerned with the problem
of mixing in the study of sexually transmitted diseases, with
particular reference to the spread of AIDS. "In this paper we have
extended [a] mixing framework...through the incorporation of
age-structure, and have found the general solution to the mixing
problem for a sexually-active homosexual population. This general
solution, as well as a number of other results, are new even in the
simpler context where there is no age-dependence. We have clarified
the role of proportionate mixing by showing that it is the only
separable solution, and have formulated a general epidemic model for a
single, age-dependent, sexually-active homosexual population with
distributed activity levels. An explicit expression for the
reproductive number for the special case of proportionate mixing has
been determined."
Correspondence: Cornell University,
Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program, 134
Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: University of
Pennsylvania, Demography Library, Philadelphia, PA.
58:10714 Casetti,
Emilio. Bayesian regression and the expansion method.
Geographical Analysis, Vol. 24, No. 1, Jan 1992. 58-74 pp. Columbus,
Ohio. In Eng.
"This paper shows that within a Bayesian frame of
reference the propensity to regard a model as invariant can be
formalized into a prior probability density function of the parameters
of an expanded formulation in which this model is encapsulated. The
Bayesian approach allows to bring to the surface the implications of
alternative levels of commitment to invariance assumptions on the
results of empirical analyses, and can quantify the comparative
strength of alternative drift specifications. The 'expanded' Bayesian
regressions are demonstrated by an example focusing upon the
effectiveness of family planning [policies]....[It is found that] the
primal relationship between fertility decline and level of
modernization drifts with level of family-planning effort; and the dual
relationship between fertility decline and family-planning effort
drifts in the modernization space. The implication of this drift is
that the primal relation between fertility decline and
modernization...is different depending upon the intensity of the
family-planning effort."
Correspondence: E. Casetti, Ohio
State University, Department of Geography, 190 North Oval Mall,
Columbus, OH 43210. Location: Princeton University Library
(UES).
58:10715 Chung,
Robert E. Cycles in the two-sex problem: an investigation
of a nonlinear demographic model. Pub. Order No. DA9126513. 1990.
101 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In
Eng.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the
University of California at Berkeley.
Correspondence:
University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI
48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A:
Humanities and Social Sciences 52(4).
58:10716 Cressie,
Noel. Smoothing regional maps using empirical Bayes
predictors. Geographical Analysis, Vol. 24, No. 1, Jan 1992. 75-95
pp. Columbus, Ohio. In Eng.
The author discusses smoothing regional
maps using empirical Bayes predictors. "Section 2 develops the general
Bayesian framework....Section 3 presents estimation procedures for
model and prior parameters, based on maximum likelihood estimation.
Section 4 discusses the important statistical notion of estimating mean
squared prediction error accurately. An analysis of sudden infant
death syndrome (SIDS) in the one hundred counties of North Carolina,
1974-1978, is presented in section 5; using the theory of sections 2,
3, and 4, the sudden infant death (SID) rate is mapped regionally.
Section 6 contains a discussion of some general issues in regional
mapping."
Correspondence: N. Cressie, Iowa State
University, Department of Statistics, Ames, IA 50011.
Location: Princeton University Library (UES).
58:10717 Fratczak,
Ewa; Jozwiak, Janina; Paszek, Barbara. The methodology of
studies on family and individual life cycles--selected aspects.
[Metodyka badan cyklu zycia jednostki i rodziny--wybrane aspekty.]
Monografie i Opracowania, No. 341, 1991. 159 pp. Szkola Glowna
Handlowa, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol.
with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The authors outline the methodology used to
study the life cycle of both individuals and families, including event
history analysis. The first chapter describes the basic concepts
involved and methods of analysis employed. The second chapter reviews
the computer programs and packages available for this kind of analysis.
Five examples of specific analyses using such programs are given in
the third chapter. The fourth and final chapter is devoted to the
empirical verification of selected methods of analyzing family and
individual life cycles using data from a Polish survey carried out in
1988.
Correspondence: Szkola Glowna Handlowa, Instytut
Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:10718 Jozwiak,
Janina; Kotowska, Irena E. Usefulness of demographic
modelling. Proceedings of the seminar "Usefulness of Demographic
Models," Jadwisin, November, 1989. Monografie i Opracowania, No.
345, 1991. 315 pp. Szkola Glowna Handlowa, Instytut Statystyki i
Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Eng. with sum. in Rus; Pol.
These
are the proceedings of a conference on the usefulness of demographic
models, held in Jadwisin, Poland, in November 1989. The 20 papers are
organized into five sections. The first two are concerned with the
modeling of population dynamics and processes. Other sections deal
with demo-economic models, software for demographic analysis, and
mathematical models.
Correspondence: Szkola Glowna
Handlowa, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodlegosci 162,
02-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
58:10719 Klissou,
Pierre. Multicollinearity in path analysis: an
application to demography. [La multicollinearite dans l'analyse
des cheminements: un essai d'application a la demographie.] Institut
de Demographie Working Paper, No. 160, ISBN 2-87209-155-6. 1991. 26 pp.
Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie:
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Fre.
The author describes the
concepts of path analysis and how they have been applied in demographic
research, particularly in the study of fertility. Particular attention
is given to the problems posed by multicollinearity among independent
variables in the study of the effect of changes in such variables on
dependent variables.
Correspondence: Universite Catholique
de Louvain, Institut de Demographie, Place Montesquieu 1, Boite 17,
1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
58:10720 Mitra,
S. Estimates of the parameters of the trajectory of
births. Demography India, Vol. 18, No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1989. 81-93
pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"In this paper we have proceeded with the
assumption of a simple pattern for the time series generated by the
births that can be attributed to the initial population. Assuming that
this time series can be described by two intersecting lines with
appropriate slopes it has been shown that the coefficients can be
expressed in terms of simple functions of these slopes and of other
parameters derivable from the distribution of the net maternity
rates....An application of the results of this exercise on a
hypothetical data set reveals the relative simplicity of this
procedure."
Correspondence: S. Mitra, Emory University,
Department of Sociology, Atlanta, GA 30322. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:10721 Rogers,
Andrei. Heterogeneity and selection in multistate
population analysis. Demography, Vol. 29, No. 1, Feb 1992. 31-8
pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper addresses the selective
effects of heterogeneity in interdependent multistate populations
experiencing recurrent and reversible events. It demonstrates that in
such demographic processes, no a priori conclusion can be made
regarding the direction of the selectivity effect, and that the dangers
of misspecification from inappropriately defined rates (e.g.,
prevalence rates) are heightened." Some mortality data for selected
developed countries are used as
illustrations.
Correspondence: A. Rogers, University of
Colorado, Department of Geography and Population Program, Boulder, CO
80309-0484. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:10722 Trussell,
James; Guinnane, Timothy W. Techniques of event history
analysis. OPR Working Paper, No. 91-7, Feb 1991. 28 pp. Princeton
University, Office of Population Research [OPR]: Princeton, New Jersey.
In Eng.
"In this paper, we explicate the logic of failure time
models in terms that will be familiar to historical demographers who
are conversant with standard statistical techniques such as logistic
regression....We...aim to provide practical guidance on the strengths
and weaknesses of alternative models and of standard statistical
software. In the first section, we provide a brief introduction to
event history analysis. In the second section, we consider the
generalization of life-table methodology to accommodate covariates. In
the third section, we briefly describe several alternative
specifications of failure time models....In the fourth section, we
discuss the issues of analyses of concurrent processes, noninformative
censoring, unobserved heterogeneity, and goodness of fit. We close
with an illustrative analysis of remarriage in Germany that
demonstrates the power of these new
techniques."
Correspondence: Princeton University, Office
of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:10723 Wu,
Lawrence L. Modeling the shape of the first marriage rate:
pooling, statistical power, and nonproportionality. CDE Working
Paper, No. 91-17, May 1991. 22 pp. University of Wisconsin, Center for
Demography and Ecology: Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"Social
scientists using hazard regression methods typically estimate separate
models by race and ethnicity using a proportional hazard specification.
This research note examines [this practice] for the age-specific rate
of first marriage using data from the June 1980 [U.S.] Current
Population Survey....The results suggest accepting more parsimonious
models that pool across race and ethnicity; moreover, pooling across
birth cohort or highest grade completed degrades fit more than pooling
across race and ethnicity. The results also strongly reject
proportional hazard specifications in favor of nonproportional
alternatives. A key to these findings is the use of a suitably
flexible model for a time-dependent, nonproportional hazard, which
underscores the importance of correctly modeling the shape of the
rate."
Correspondence: University of Wisconsin, Center for
Demography and Ecology, 4412 Social Science Building, 1180 Observatory
Drive, Madison, WI 53706-1393. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
58:10724 Yadava, K.
N. S.; Kumar, U.; Kushwaha, S. N. S. Population projection
up to the lower limit of reproductive period under gradual change in
fertility schedule: some alternative models. Demography India,
Vol. 18, No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1989. 73-80 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
The
authors present models designed to project trends in age distribution
for stable and stationary populations. Data from the Rural Development
and Population Growth Survey undertaken in Uttar Pradesh, India, in
1978 are used to illustrate the modeling
techniques.
Correspondence: K. N. S. Yadava, Banaras Hindu
University, Department of Statistics, Varanasi 221 005, India.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
