57:40716 Arino,
Ovide; Axelrod, David E.; Kimmel, Marek. Mathematical
population dynamics: proceedings of the second international
conference. Lecture Notes in Pure and Applied Mathematics, Vol.
131, ISBN 0-8247-8424-3. LC 91-8703. 1991. xv, 785 pp. Marcel Dekker:
New York, New York/Basel, Switzerland. In Eng.
This volume consists
of 49 papers by various authors and is a product of the Second
International Conference on Mathematical Population Dynamics held May
17-20, 1989, at Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey. "This
volume is intended for mathematicians, statisticians, biologists, and
medical researchers who are interested in recent advances in analyzing
changes in populations of genes, cells, and tumors; in the natural
history of cancer; and in epidemiological topics such as AIDS....The
chapters are grouped within the following topics: structured
populations, ordinary and partial differential equations models, AIDS
and [the] theory of epidemics, stochastic models, cell cycle kinetics,
proliferation and tumor growth, and genetics and molecular
biology."
Correspondence: Marcel Dekker, 270 Madison
Avenue, New York, NY 10016. Location: Princeton University
Library (SM).
57:40717 Blakemore,
Michael; Dewdney, John. Census cartography. In:
Information sources in cartography, edited by C. R. Perkins and R. B.
Parry. ISBN 0-408-02458-5. LC 89-77929. 1989. 362-72 pp. Bowker-Saur:
New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
Some problems
concerning the representation of census data in map form are discussed.
The emphasis is on the techniques of census cartography. Particular
attention is paid to mapping techniques used in the United Kingdom and
the United States, concentrating on the use of computers to streamline
the process.
Correspondence: C. R. Perkins, University of
Manchester, John Rylands University Library, Oxford Road, Manchester
M13 9PL, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SG).
57:40718 Cerrito,
Patricia B. A nonparametric approach to analyzing large
human populations. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 106, No. 1, Sep
1991. 23-37 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"There are many
statistical techniques that require the assumption that the population
being studied is normally distributed--regression analysis,
multivariate analysis, time series analysis, and so on. Unfortunately,
as the development of survey sampling has long acknowledged, large
human populations are usually stratified into several different
subpopulations. Since the boundaries between the strata are somewhat
blurred, they are not independent, so the overall distribution of the
population tends to be multimodal rather than normal. In this paper, a
technique is developed to find these multimodal techniques using
nonparametric density estimation." The effectiveness of the technique
is illustrated using an example of 100 individuals studied to compare
the safety and effectiveness of
antidepressives.
Correspondence: P. B. Cerrito, University
of Louisville, Department of Mathematics, Louisville, KY 40292.
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).
57:40719 Das Gupta,
Prithwis. Decomposition of the difference between two
rates and its consistency when more than two populations are
involved. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1991.
105-25 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
"The objective of the present
paper is to put together the general formulas that a researcher is
expected to need for...two categories of decomposition problems for any
number of factors. Applications of the use of the formulas under these
two situations are illustrated by four examples. The paper also
suggests a solution to the problem of possible internal inconsistencies
of the factor effects when more than two populations are involved, and
provides an illustrative example." The examples used concern U.S. data
on childlessness by family income, labor force status of wife, and
wife's age at marriage for blacks and whites in 1970; and life
expectancy at birth for white males,
1940-1980.
Correspondence: P. Das Gupta, U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Population Division, Washington, D.C. 20233.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:40720 de Beer,
Joop. From birth expectations to birth forecasts: a
partial-adjustment approach. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol.
3, No. 2, 1991. 127-44 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
"As women's
expectations about their own future fertility tend to deviate
systematically from realizations, these expectations cannot be used
directly for forecasting purposes. This paper discusses a
partial-adjustment approach for deriving forecasts from the
expectations. The sensitivity of the results to various assumptions is
examined. Empirical results obtained for the Netherlands seem
promising."
Correspondence: J. de Beer, Netherlands Central
Bureau of Statistics, Department of Population Statistics, P.O. Box
959, 2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
57:40721 Firebaugh,
Glenn. Methods for estimating cohort replacement
effects. Sociological Methodology, Vol. 19, 1989. 243-62 pp.
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author reexamines the hypothesis
developed by Norman Ryder that the birth and death of individuals
constitutes a massive process of personnel replacement that holds
enormous potential for social change. "In this paper I describe and
illustrate six possible ways to estimate cohort (personnel) replacement
effects: three based on algebra (Kitagawa's two-component method,
forward partitioning, and backward partitioning), and three based on
regression (regression standardization, survey metric analysis, and
linear decomposition). Assuming monotonic change, regression methods
typically are better, because standard algebraic methods are ill suited
for analyzing change with regard to birth cohorts that enter or exit
during the period studied."
For the article by Ryder, published in
1965, see 32:1043.
Correspondence: G. Firebaugh,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:40722 Gilbert, A.
J.; Braat, L. C. Modelling for population and sustainable
development. ISBN 0-415-06187-3. LC 90-9021. 1991. xvii, 261 pp.
Routledge: New York, New York/London, England; International Social
Science Council: Paris, France. In Eng.
The authors present and
evaluate a computer modeling approach called ECCO, for Enhancement of
Population Carrying Capacity Options. It was developed at the
University of Edinburgh's Centre for Human Ecology to help guide policy
toward a more sustainable development. It "comprises both the
modelling approach to issues of population, resources, environment and
development and the various computer models that have grown out of
it....This book, which reports on the proceedings of an international
workshop held at Soest in the Netherlands, presents a technical
evaluation of ECCO, an analysis of the policy relevance of ECCO and
assesses other approaches--with emphasis on ecology, economics, energy,
agriculture and population--and examines the possibilities for their
integration within ECCO."
Correspondence: Routledge, 11 New
Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE, England. Location: Princeton
University Library (FST).
57:40723 Guyot,
Jean-Luc. Methods of analysis of fluctuations in the
school-age population: a demographic approach. [Methodes
d'analyse des flux des populations scolaires: approche demographique.]
Institut de Demographie Working Paper, No. 157, ISBN 2-87209-142-4.
1991. 29 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie:
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Fre.
The author examines the various
methods that have been developed to analyze fluctuations in school-age
populations, and describes their advantages and drawbacks. The study
concentrates on models of these changes that have been developed. The
geographic scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: Universite
Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie, Place Montesquieu 1,
Boite 17, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
57:40724 Jiang,
Zhenghua. The application and development of population
mathematics and population systems engineering in China. Chinese
Journal of Population Science, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1989. 471-6 pp. New York,
New York. In Eng.
"This article briefly describes the application
of such techniques as systems engineering and applied mathematics, to
the development, problems, and trends of [China's] population studies.
It also touches upon the contributions of Chinese
scholars."
Correspondence: Z. Jiang, Xi'an Jiaotong
University, Institute of Population Science, 26 Xianning Road, Xian
710049, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:40725 Kotowska,
Irena. Modeling labor resources using demoeconomic models
of the BACHUE (DEMB) type in Poland. [Modelirane na trudovite
resursi v demografsko-ikonomicheski model ot tipa BACHUE (DEMB) v
Polsha.] Naselenie, Vol. 8, No. 1, 1990. 59-70 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In
Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author analyzes demographic and
economic models developed by Poland's Institute of Statistics and
Demography. "The economic submodel describes the Polish national
economy as divided into 11 sectors and branches of the production
sphere and 7 sectors of the non-production sphere. The demographic
submodel covers 5 blocks of equations." The author notes an
interdependence among the variables studied and relates this to
socioeconomic and demographic development
factors.
Correspondence: I. Kotowska, Polish Academy of
Sciences, Central School of Statistics and Planning, Warsaw, Poland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:40726 Levy, Paul
S.; Lemeshow, Stanley. Sampling of populations: methods
and applications. Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical
Statistics: Applied Probability and Statistics, 2nd ed. ISBN
0-471-50822-5. LC 90-13047. 1991. xxiii, 420 pp. John Wiley and Sons:
New York, New York/Chichester, England. In Eng.
This is a revised
edition of a book originally published in 1980 under the title
"Sampling of populations: methods and applications", and is designed
both for the working professional and as a textbook for students taking
formal courses in sampling methodology. Survey design and estimation
procedures are described. Other topics covered include nonresponse and
missing data, constructing forms and collecting data, and
interpretation of data and survey report writing. The geographic scope
is worldwide, with some examples from the United States used as
illustrations.
Correspondence: John Wiley and Sons, 605
Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158-0012. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
57:40727 Pullum,
Thomas W.; Wolf, Douglas A. Correlations between
frequencies of kin. Demography, Vol. 28, No. 3, Aug 1991. 391-409
pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Recent years have seen the
development of formal and microsimulation models of the structure and
dynamics of kin networks. These models generally assume uncorrelated
fertility within and across generations. Several sets of real data,
however, show positive correlations between the frequencies of various
categories of kin. This paper uses formal models to calculate the
correlations that will exist between certain categories of kin even if
mothers and daughters have independent fertility. Mechanisms by which
fertility might be transmitted from mothers to their daughters are
considered and the implications for kin correlations are evaluated."
The geographical scope is worldwide.
This is a revised version of a
paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population
Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 3, Fall
1990, p. 415).
Correspondence: T. W. Pullum, University of
Texas, Population Research Center, Austin, TX 78712.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:40728 Puu,
T. Hotelling's migration model revisited. Environment
and Planning A, Vol. 23, No. 8, Aug 1991. 1,209-16 pp. London, England.
In Eng.
"In the present article Hotelling's model of population
growth and migration of 1921 is 'revisited'. After a discussion of the
stationary solutions and their stability the main point is made. The
model itself is structurally unstable, but can be easily stabilized by
adding a simple autonomous migration component. By this, the solution
curves, in the shape of constant amplitude population waves over space
for the original model, either become damped in one direction and
explosive in another or are replaced by just one single spatial limit
cycle."
Correspondence: T. Puu, University of Umea,
Department of Economics, S-90187 Umea, Sweden. Location:
Princeton University Library (UES).
57:40729 Rodgers,
Willard L. Interpreting the components of time
trends. Sociological Methodology, Vol. 20, 1990. 421-46 pp.
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Procedures for decomposing differences
between two populations--for example, into the part that is due to
differences in age-specific rates and the part that is due to
differences in age distributions--have been used to decompose time
trends into the part that is due to changes occurring within cohorts
and the part that is due to the gradual replacement of older by younger
cohorts. It is not clear what is accomplished by such a decomposition
of a trend, however. Decomposition does not tell us what types of
variables may be the root causes of a trend, and there is a real danger
that such a decomposition will confuse rather than clarify." The
concepts are illustrated using U.S. data on racial prejudice and
marijuana use. A response by Glenn Firebaugh defending decomposition
methods is included (pp. 439-46).
Correspondence: W. L.
Rodgers, University of Michigan, Institute for Social Research, Survey
Research Center, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
57:40730 Schoen,
Robert; Kim, Young J. Movement toward stability as a
fundamental principle of population dynamics. Demography, Vol. 28,
No. 3, Aug 1991. 455-66 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this paper
we start from the premise that substantial and meaningful regularities
characterize the behavior of all populations, and we reinterpret a
measure known...as the Kullback distance to extend the present
understanding of those regularities. Two elements [underlie] that
reinterpretation. First, Equation (6) generalizes the concept of
population momentum by defining the momentum of any age group in any
observed population in terms of its stable equivalent. Second,
demographic behavior is summarized by the reproductive value function
because reproductive values embed a population's rates of fertility and
mortality....There a Kullback distance, which must decrease
monotonically as a population moves toward stability, is shown to be a
weighted average of a population's log momentum, where the weights
relate to the pattern of reproductive values." The geographical scope
is worldwide.
Correspondence: R. Schoen, Johns Hopkins
University, Department of Population Dynamics, Baltimore, MD 21205.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:40731 Trost,
Jan. What's in a surname? Familjerapporter, No. 19,
1991. 20 pp. Uppsala Universitet: Uppsala, Sweden. In Eng.
The
results of two surveys conducted in 1975 and 1989 in Sweden concerning
the use of different surnames within the same family unit are reported.
A historical background to the evolution of family names is
included.
Correspondence: Uppsala University, Department of
Sociology, P.O. Box 513, S-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:40732 Wachter,
Kenneth W. Pre-procreative ages in population stability
and cyclicity. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 2,
1991. 79-103 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
"Humans' protracted
maturation before childbearing is an extreme example of a general
characteristic of higher organisms: a positive lower bound on ages of
procreation. The pre-procreative span, much discussed for its
evolutionary and social ramifications, has consequences also for the
mathematics of population renewal....This paper proves the presence of
a pre-procreative span sufficient, in and of itself, to guarantee the
existence condition for bifurcation for all models in one important
class. The class includes the best-studied examples of age-specific
systems with and without homeostatic feedback in purely discrete and in
purely continuous formulations."
Correspondence: K. W.
Wachter, University of California, Graduate Group in Demography, 2232
Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
57:40733 Walter, S.
D.; Birnie, S. E. Mapping mortality and morbidity
patterns: an international comparison. International Journal of
Epidemiology, Vol. 20, No. 3, Sep 1991. 678-89 pp. Oxford, England. In
Eng.
"A set of 49 national, intranational and international health
atlases was surveyed to characterize their mapping methodology with
respect to the populations covered, the diseases represented, the
mapping techniques, and statistical methods. Little consistency was
found concerning the choice of data function to be mapped, minimum
event frequency requirements, method of age standardization, or map
colour systems. Many atlases did not include basic epidemiological
information; for instance, approximately half the atlases did not quote
population denominators....[The authors] conclude that inter-atlas
comparisons are made very difficult by methodological differences, and
that even regional comparisons within atlases should be made
cautiously. We propose a set of methodological guidelines for
consideration in future atlases."
Correspondence: S. D.
Walter, McMaster University, Health Sciences Centre, Department of
Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Hamilton, Ontario L8N 3Z5,
Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:40734 Wilmoth,
John R. Variation in vital rates by age, period, and
cohort. Sociological Methodology, Vol. 20, 1990. 295-335 pp.
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The analysis of age-specific vital rates
is studied, and special attention is given to the problem of
decomposing an array of rates into factors related to age, period, and
cohort....The paper focuses on the age and period dimensions and
derives an initial description of the matrix's structure with regard to
changes only in those two directions. This two-dimensional description
is then augmented by a consideration of residual patterns that seem
clearly linked to cohorts. The use of a model that is asymmetric in
age, period, and cohort is justified by a detailed discussion of the
problems of identification in models involving perfectly collinear
independent variables. An important conclusion is that traditional
modeling approaches that treat age, period, and cohort in a symmetric
fashion are fundamentally flawed." Some of these concepts are
illustrated using mortality data from France.
This is a revised
version of a paper originally presented at the 1989 Annual Meeting of
the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 55,
No. 3, Fall 1989, pp. 375-6).
Correspondence: J. R.
Wilmoth, University of California, Graduate Group in Demography, 2232
Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
57:40735 Wu,
Lawrence L. Issues in smoothing empirical hazard
rates. Sociological Methodology, Vol. 19, 1989. 127-59 pp.
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This chapter presents a smooth estimator
of the hazard rate using a variable-span running loglinear
specification that allows investigators to maintain only mild
assumptions about the functional forms of population heterogeneity and
time inhomogeneity in the rate. This estimator is useful both in
exploratory data analyses (EDA) and in checking parametric assumptions.
Examples drawn from data on the transition to first marriage for women
in the U.S. show that several common parametric assumptions are
violated in these data and illustrate that the smoothed hazard
estimator can yield important insights not easily obtained from more
conventional methods."
Correspondence: L. L. Wu, University
of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
57:40736 Wu,
Lawrence L.; Tuma, Nancy B. Local hazard models.
Sociological Methodology, Vol. 20, 1990. 141-80 pp. Washington, D.C. In
Eng.
"We introduce a class of local hazard models that maintain
parametric assumptions locally rather than globally. These models
allow estimation of a flexible baseline hazard rate and nonproportional
covariate effects. Recently developed local likelihood methods, which
generalize maximum likelihood methods, can be used to estimate these
models. We illustrate these techniques by estimating two local hazard
models of first marriage--a local exponential model and a local
Gompertz model--from data in the June 1980 [U.S.] Current Population
Survey. We also compare results of the local hazard models with those
of Cox's model, an exponential model, a piecewise exponential model,
and a piecewise Gompertz model. Estimates for the local exponential
and local Gompertz models agree closely with nonparametric estimates
for various subgroups. Moreover, results of the local models provide
interesting substantive insights into the process of first marriage
that are not easily obtained from global
models."
Correspondence: L. L. Wu, University of Wisconsin,
Department of Sociology, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
