F. Fertility

F.1. General Fertility

57:40212 Ahonsi, Babatunde A. Components of stably high fertility in three areas of West Africa. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 33, No. 7, 1991. 849-57 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The constancy of fertility levels in Ghana, Senegal and southwest Nigeria since 1970 is separated into its nuptiality and marital fertility elements. The age-specific changes in the two components are examined and these show that the apparent stability in observed total fertility rates is essentially the outcome of the offsetting impact of increased marital fertility below age 25 and above age 40, over the effect of the increasing proportion of women remaining single up to 25 [years] of age. Continuity in traditional fertility behaviour and stable nuptiality has remained operative over the broad middle segment of the reproductive lifespan of women in the three areas. The paper thus concludes that West Africa is likely to continue to display stably high fertility for many years into the next century." Data are from a variety of sources.
Correspondence: B. A. Ahonsi, London School of Economics and Political Science, Population Studies, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

57:40213 Allman, James; Vu, Qui Nhan; Nguyen, Minh Thang; Pham, Bich San; Vu, Duy Man. Fertility and family planning in Vietnam. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 22, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1991. 308-17 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This report provides the first reliable statistical data on fertility patterns and the family planning program in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. Findings are from the 1988 Demographic and Health Survey of Vietnam and the 1989 census survey....After providing some background on Vietnam and briefly reviewing data sources, the report looks at levels and trends in fertility and at some of the factors--including marriage patterns, desired family size, infant mortality levels, and breastfeeding patterns--that determine the current situation. It then examines knowledge and use of contraception among the Vietnamese and measures the impact of the national family planning program. Factors that are likely to influence fertility and family planning trends in the future are also discussed." It is found that "the major factors likely to influence fertility and family planning in the future are the government's population policy, improved access to modern methods of contraception, and the institution of new economic policies that are currently under way in Vietnam."
Correspondence: J. Allman, c/o UNICEF, Hanoi, Vietnam. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40214 Boohene, Esther; Tsodzai, June; Hardee-Cleaveland, Karen; Weir, Sharon; Janowitz, Barbara. Fertility and contraceptive use among young adults in Harare, Zimbabwe. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 22, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1991. 264-71 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"In 1986, a survey of young adults aged 14-24 in Harare, Zimbabwe obtained information about their knowledge, attitudes, and sexual behavior. Most adolescent childbearing took place within marriage, although sexual intercourse was generally initiated before marriage. Knowledge of family planning was high, but contraceptive use lagged behind knowledge....Current contraceptive use among sexually active unmarried youths was 36 percent among women and 29 percent among men. One consequence of low contraceptive use was a high number of unwanted premarital pregnancies. Twenty-nine percent of the women had been pregnant; those not married at the time they got pregnant generally got married soon after. Of the girls who got pregnant while in school, 90 percent had to drop out of school. A second consequence of low contraceptive use is an increased risk of transmission of STDs and AIDS among the youth of Harare."
Correspondence: J. Tsodzai, National Family Planning Council, Youth Advisory Services, Harare, Zimbabwe. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40215 Borisov, V. A. Fertility: sociological and demographic aspects. [Rozhdaemost': sotsiologicheskie i demograficheskie aspekty.] 1988. 168 pp. Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Institut Sotsiologicheskikh Issledovanii: Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
This is a collection of articles by various authors on aspects of fertility. Topics considered include family size, marriage stability and family size, population policy, family planning, and the census as a source of data for fertility studies. The primary focus is on the USSR, but the final paper examines the development of fertility research in the United States.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40216 Bosveld, Willy; Wijsen, Cecile; Kuijsten, Anton. The growing importance of fertility at higher ages in the Netherlands. PDOD Paper, No. 3, Aug 1991. 16 pp. Universiteit van Amsterdam, Postdoctorale Onderzoekersopleiding Demografie [PDOD]: Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In this paper we will explore fertility changes in The Netherlands in the period 1975-1989 and aspects that are related to these changes....[After an introduction,] the second section describes important features of Dutch fertility. Changes in TFRs [total fertility rates] and in ASFRs [age-specific fertility rates] in this period will be examined. Furthermore, the role of illegitimate fertility will be explored....In the third section we will further specify the important fertility changes, detected at the national level, with data at the regional level. By examining the fertility data...we...study relationships between variables of fertility change and...their possible macro-level determinants such as degree of urbanization, female labour market participation and female educational level. All variables in our analysis were calculated on the basis of data provided by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics (NCBS)."
Correspondence: Universiteit van Amsterdam, Postdoctorale Onderzoekersopleiding Demografie, Planologisch en Demografisch Instituut, Jodenbreestraat 23, 1011 NH Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40217 Bouvier, Leon F. Shifting shares of the population and U.S. fertility. Population and Environment, Vol. 13, No. 1, Fall 1991. 45-54 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Fertility [in the United States], as measured by the total fertility rate, apparently has been climbing since 1988 and could approach replacement level in 1990. Three possible explanations are explored: incorrect denominators, actual fertility increase, and changing ethnic proportions of the population. Using California data as a surrogate for the nation, it is found that at least part of the gain in fertility is attributable to what is called 'shifting shares.' Given that minorities have higher fertility than the majority, as these groups increase their share of the population, the nation's fertility can be expected to continue climbing. Any attempt to attain zero population growth must therefore be postponed indefinitely."
Correspondence: L. F. Bouvier, 3817 Huey Court, Virginia Beach, VA 23456. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40218 Brittain, Ann W. Anticipated child loss to migration and sustained high fertility in an East Caribbean population. Social Biology, Vol. 38, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1991. 94-112 pp. Port Angeles, Washington. In Eng.
The relationship between migration and continued high fertility in developing countries is analyzed, using data from the 1980-1981 census of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. It is found that "child-to-woman ratios...are related to the educational attainment of women,...the percentage of men engaged in agriculture,...whether the district has...a port or airport, and...the stability of a district's population. Those districts with the greatest stability of population had the lowest child-to-woman ratios, suggesting that the anticipated loss of children to migration may be an important factor in maintaining high reproductive rates."
Correspondence: A. W. Brittain, University of Miami, Department of Anthropology, Coral Gables, FL 33124. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40219 Chen, Renbao; Morgan, S. Philip. Recent trends in the timing of first births in the United States. Demography, Vol. 28, No. 4, Nov 1991. 513-33 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"We use vital registration data published since 1979 to update trends in the timing of first births [in the United States]. Two important trends are documented. First, the likelihood that childless women over age 30 will have a first birth has increased since the 1970s. This change shows that women born in the 1950s are 'catching up' on fertility postponed at younger ages. Second, racial differences in the timing of first births are very large. For those born in the 1950s, nonwhites have first births much earlier, and far fewer nonwhite than white women will remain permanently childless. In the second part of the paper, we use these data for recent years to assess earlier projections of childlessness based on cohort and period approaches. We also assess the accuracy of stated intentions to have no children."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1991 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: R. Chen, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40220 Damiani, Paul; Masse, Helene. The search for a law of fertility. [Recherche d'une loi de fecondite.] Journal de la Societe de Statistique de Paris, Vol. 132, No. 1, 1991. 47-56 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The authors determine a law of fertility using a method applied to a search for a law of mortality, in which they define "a new scale of time based on variations of weight according to age." Data are from annual fertility rates by five-year age group and concern mothers aged 15-49 in France from 1895-1897 to 1981-1983. The authors establish that the law of fertility they find and the law of mortality have the same form. Variations in this law of fertility over time are studied.
Correspondence: P. Damiani, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40221 DaVanzo, Julie; Starbird, Ellen H. Correlates of short interbirth intervals in Peninsular Malaysia: their pathways of influence through breastfeeding and contraceptive use. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 22, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1991. 241-54 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"In this study, we use data from Malaysia to investigate how factors that relate to breastfeeding and contraceptive use affect birth spacing and, in particular, which factors contribute to the probability that the interval is short....Our underlying model...is that breastfeeding, contraceptive use, fecundity, and frequency of intercourse are the proximate determinants of birth interval length....Factors associated with modernization--educational attainment, female wages, and family income--tend to be negatively associated with breastfeeding and positively associated with contraceptive use. Ethnicity is also important....Family planning clinics have strong negative effects on breastfeeding initiation, which offset whatever positive effects clinics have on the probability of using modern contraceptives...."
Correspondence: J. DaVanzo, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40222 de Beer, J. Births are affected by economic concerns. [Geboorteontwikkeling wordt beinvloed door vertrouwen in de economie.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 39, No. 9, Sep 1991. 25-30 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The author uses a regression model to explain the effects of consumer confidence and the economic climate on fluctuations in the total fertility rate. Data are for the Netherlands and cover the period 1972-1990.
Correspondence: J. de Beer, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, Department of Population Studies, P.O. Box 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40223 de Beer, Joop. Births and cohort size. Social Biology, Vol. 38, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1991. 146-53 pp. Port Angeles, Washington. In Eng.
"[Dennis A.] Ahlburg...tested a simple version of Easterlin's relative-cohort-size model of fertility on the basis of U.S. and Canadian post-war data. His conclusion was that the Easterlin model fits the data very well and can therefore be used for calculating forecasts. However, the model he estimated is oversimplified. In this paper an alternative specification is presented. The model is applied to Dutch fertility data. The Easterlin effect is found to affect the movement of births in the Netherlands during the period 1950-85, but a declining long-term trend in average family size proves far more important in explaining post-war births. The model forecasts a rise of births until 2000."
For the article by Ahlburg referred to, published in 1986, see 52:40241.
Correspondence: J. de Beer, Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Population Statistics, 428 Prinses Beatrixlaan, 2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40224 Djurdjev, Branislav S. The decline of fertility in Vilovo village. [Opadanje fertiliteta u selu Vilovu.] Statisticka Revija, Vol. 39, No. 3-4, 1989. 58-69 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr.
The decline of fertility in a Serbian village in Yugoslavia is examined. The author suggests that the fertility decrease did not start until the early twentieth century, and concludes that although the village was influenced by the general sociocultural changes affecting Europe, the decline in fertility was postponed by the specific conditions it experienced as a border area between two powerful empires.
Correspondence: B. S. Djurdjev, Institut za Ekonomiku Poljoprivrede i Sociologiju Sela, Novi Sad, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40225 Feeney, Griffith. Fertility decline in Taiwan: a study using parity progression ratios. Demography, Vol. 28, No. 3, Aug 1991. 467-79 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Taiwan's decline in fertility is studied by using period parity progression ratios. Levels of marriage and motherhood are found to have been high and essentially constant through the late 1980s, suggesting that the decline has been due almost entirely to declines in second and higher-order births. Families with three or more children play an important role in maintaining the current level of fertility. The level of fertility would be even lower without these families. They contributed more than one-half child per woman to the total fertility rate during most of the 1980s. Total fertility rates computed from the period parity progression ratios indicate a substantially higher level of fertility than the conventional total fertility rate; they remained above or at replacement level through 1988. A formal demographic analysis suggests that the conventional total fertility rate has been depressed by shifts in age at childbearing."
Correspondence: G. Feeney, East-West Center, East-West Population Institute, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40226 Feyisetan, Bamikale J.; Bankole, Akinrinola. Mate selection and fertility in urban Nigeria. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, Vol. 22, No. 3, Autumn 1991. 273-92 pp. Calgary, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"This paper examines if and how the mode of selecting a marriage partner relates to marital fertility in urban Nigeria. Three sets of test variables are identified...: (i) religion and ethnicity, which are antecedent to both mate selection and marital fertility; (ii) education of the woman before marriage, which is perceived to be concomitant with features of mode of mate selection; and (iii) intervening variables that include duration of marriage (which is also an exposure variable), women's working patterns, contraceptive use, and age difference between spouses....Data for this study were derived from a 1987/88 survey of [9,664 ever-married women aged 15-49 living in] nine major cities in Nigeria."
Correspondence: B. J. Feyisetan, Obafemi Awolowo University, Department of Demography and Social Statistics, Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Location: Princeton University Library (SSA).

57:40227 Fialova, Ludmila. Changes in fertility in the Czech lands during the demographic transition. [Zmeny ve vyvoji plodnosti v ceskych zemich za demograficke revoluce.] Historicka Demografie, Vol. 15, 1991. 143-89 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
"The beginning of the decrease of fertility in the Czech Lands can be placed in the first decades of the 19th century...as a result of the declining marriage rate. From the 1880's [on] there was added the restriction of marital fertility which gradually extended to all parts of society and to the whole of the country. There were important regional differences as regards the beginning, duration and end of the decline of fertility. These differences led to the relatively high variation coefficient in the level of fertility according to districts in the period when the level of fertility throughout the country dropped (1900-1930), whereas in the preceding and subsequent periods deviations from the average values were considerably lower."
Correspondence: L. Fialova, Historicky Ustav CSAV, Prague, Czechoslovakia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40228 Grindstaff, Carl F.; Balakrishnan, T. R.; Dewit, David J. Educational attainment, age at first birth and lifetime fertility: an analysis of Canadian fertility survey data. Canadian Review of Sociology and Anthropology/Revue Canadienne de Sociologie et d'Anthropologie, Vol. 28, No. 3, Aug 1991. 324-39 pp. Toronto, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The purpose of this paper is to re-examine...the relationship between education, age at first birth and life-time fertility of women in Canada in the 1980s. This re-examination is related to the changes that have taken place in the past generation in life course paths for women. The data in this paper are developed from the Canadian National Fertility Survey of 1984, focussing on [2,083] women 35-49 years of age....The findings show that it is the timing of first birth rather than the number of children ever born that is more related to educational attainment of women. In addition, it appears to be the effect of education on first birth timing rather than lifetime fertility that is of key importance in the overall pattern. However, an important new demographic trend is observable. Even when there is an early first birth...the youngest cohort of women (age 35-39) had fewer than three children over the reproductive lifetime. It is likely that the recent trends of later marriage, smaller numbers of children, later age at first birth, and increasing levels of education and labour force activity will continue for women in Canada."
Correspondence: C. F. Grindstaff, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 3K7, Canada. Location: New York Public Library.

57:40229 Guest, Phillip. Individual-level fertility measures derived from the own children method: an evaluation of Southeast Asian census data. Majalah Demografi Indonesia/Indonesian Journal of Demography, Vol. 18, No. 35, Jun 1991. 43-58 pp. Jakarta, Indonesia. In Eng.
"The use of the own-children method to generate individual level measures of recent fertility has been applied to census data in the past. At the aggregate level there exist a number of adjustment techniques which can [be] applied to own-children data to produce robust estimates of fertility but these techniques cannot be applied where individual-level [analysis] of fertility is required. Analysis of census data from four Southeast Asian countries [suggests], however, that if sufficient regard for possible sources of error, particularly age misstatement, is applied the own-children technique can provide fertility data which could be employed in multivariate analyses at the individual-level." The data used concern Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand.
Correspondence: P. Guest, Australian National University, Department of Demography, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40230 Han, Jingqing; Liu, Yingying. Birth number base and its application. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1990. 107-14 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper attempts to present the concept of 'birth number base' as a reflection of the fecundity of women, explain the methods of determining the base, and its application." The birth number base is defined as the number of births in a given year when the total fertility rate is one. The concept is applied to Chinese data from the 1 per 1,000 population survey of 1982 to project the number of births that will have to be prevented in the future if China is to reach its population targets.
Correspondence: J. Han, Chinese Academy of Science, System Science Institute, 5 Jiangoumen Nei Da Jie 5 Hao, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40231 Heckman, James J.; Walker, James R. Economic models of fertility dynamics: a study of Swedish fertility. Research in Population Economics, Vol. 7, 1991. 3-91 pp. Greenwich, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper estimates semiparametric reduced-form neoclassical models of life-cycle fertility in Sweden. Rising female wages delay times to all conceptions and reduce total conceptions. These results are robust across a variety of empirical specifications. We find a particular neoclassical model that predicts fertility attained at different ages as well as the aggregate time series of birth rates. A model that excludes wages and incomes predicts fertility attained at different ages but fails to predict the aggregate time series, and is dominated by the neoclassical model in terms of non-nested test criteria. Cohort drift found in estimated parameters is consistent with the expansion of pronatal social programs. The estimated neoclassical model produces strong short-run responses of birth rates to wages and incomes of the sort that have been found in the time series literature on fertility while generating the relatively weak long-run responses to economic variables found in the cross-sectional literature on completed fertility."
Correspondence: J. J. Heckman, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40232 Hirosima, Kiyosi; Bando, Rieko. Fertility trends in Japan: 1988-1989. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 46, No. 4, Jan 1991. 66-73 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Fertility trends for Japan for 1988 and 1989 are analyzed and compared with earlier years. The authors note that the total number of births, the total fertility rate, and the ever-married total fertility rate are all declining. The average age of childbearing, however, is increasing.
Correspondence: K. Hirosima, Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40233 Hyatt, Douglas E.; Milne, William J. Countercyclical fertility in Canada: some empirical results. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 18, No. 1, 1991. 1-16 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
A model based on that developed by W. P. Butz and M. P. Ward is used to examine the extent to which fertility in Canada has been countercyclical over the period 1948-1984. "Using aggregate data for the total fertility rate, male and female earnings and the proportion of women employed, multivariate regression analysis is used to support the countercyclical hypothesis. A comparison of American and Canadian results [indicates] that there is not a significant difference in the magnitude of the estimated elasticities through 1975. However, Canadian evidence after 1975 suggests that other variables, perhaps including public policy, have also played a role in determining fertility behaviour."
For the work by Butz and Ward, originally published in 1977, see 44:1298 and 45:4294.
Correspondence: D. E. Hyatt, University of Toronto, Institute for Policy Analysis, 215 Huron Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A1, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40234 Isvan, Nilufer A. Productive and reproductive decisions in Turkey: the role of domestic bargaining. Journal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 53, No. 4, Nov 1991. 1,057-70 pp. Minneapolis, Minnesota. In Eng.
Using data from the 1968 Survey of Family Structure and Population Issues carried out in Turkey, the author examines the relationship between employment and fertility. "The central argument is that in settings where fertility proves inelastic to extradomestic employment, this might be due to the inability of the wife/mother to resolve the conflict between her productive and reproductive roles, rather than to the absence of such conflict, as is generally assumed."
Correspondence: N. A. Isvan, State University of New York, Department of Sociology, Stony Brook, NY 11794-4356. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40235 Jacobson, Cardell K.; Heaton, Tim B. Voluntary childlessness among American men and women in the late 1980's. Social Biology, Vol. 38, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1991. 79-93 pp. Port Angeles, Washington. In Eng.
"In this paper we examine both attitudinal and demographic factors associated with childlessness in the United States. The data used in this paper are from the National Survey of Families and Households collected in 1987 and 1988. The data set includes both demographic data, perceived advantages and disadvantages of having children, and attitudinal data about related social issues. Overall, the rate of voluntary childlessness was not high. Only 3.5 per cent of the men and 2.8 per cent of the women reported that they were childless and did not expect to have children."
Correspondence: C. K. Jacobson, Brigham Young University, Department of Sociology, Provo, UT 84602. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40236 Jayachandran, John. Determinants of fertility in Canada: a causal modelling. 1990. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Alberta, Canada.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 51(7).

57:40237 Jejeebhoy, Shireen J. Women's status and fertility: successive cross-sectional evidence from Tamil Nadu, India, 1970-80. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 22, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1991. 217-30 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This study explores linkages between the status of women and fertility over time in Tamil Nadu, India, using sample survey data for currently married women aged 35-44 in 1970 and 1980. The effects of individual indicators of the status of women on fertility are decomposed into effects through each of the proximate variables, notably those affecting marriage duration, marital fertility, and contraception. There is considerable variation in the direction and magnitude of the relationships between the status indicators and fertility behavior and in the relationship to the underlying mechanisms at the two points in time. On balance, the evidence suggests improvements in the status of women come to exert an increasingly negative effect on fertility over the course of demographic transition."
Correspondence: S. J. Jejeebhoy, 16 A G. Deshmukh Marg, Bombay 400 026, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40238 Jiang, Zhenghua. A survey of social, economic, and demographic causes for changes in rural fertility in Xianyang. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1990. 55-66 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Results are presented from a 1988 survey undertaken in Xianyang, China, to examine the determinants of fertility change in a rural population. The survey, which was based on the Easterlin model, included 1,011 married women of reproductive age and 153 households. Factors considered include age at first marriage, women's fertility preferences, women's preferences concerning sex of children, and economic conditions in the household.
Correspondence: Z. Jiang, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Institute of Population Research, Xi'an, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40239 Jones, Clare. Birth statistics 1990. Population Trends, No. 65, Autumn 1991. 9-15 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This article examines the latest annual statistics for live births (1990) and conceptions (1989) in England and Wales....The total number of live births was 706,000,...the highest annual total for 18 years....The total period fertility rate was 1.84, which was 2 per cent higher than in 1989....The trend in mean age of women at childbirth remained upward, and...the rise in the proportion of births occurring outside marriage continued. Extra-marital births accounted for 28.3 per cent of all live births...."
Correspondence: C. Jones, Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, Demographic Analysis and Vital Statistics Division, St. Catherine's House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40240 Kenny, Lawrence W. International evidence on the role of literacy in the demographic transition. Research in Population Economics, Vol. 7, 1991. 113-28 pp. Greenwich, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
The author studies the effects of literacy on fertility by sampling 71 developing countries in 1965 and 1975. He concludes that "if policymakers want to reduce fertility,...this goal can be accomplished by attaining a sufficiently high literacy rate. Policymakers must be cautioned, however, that at low literacy levels small increases in literacy will not reduce fertility. Once this hurdle is passed, successive increases in literacy produce larger and larger fertility declines."
Correspondence: L. W. Kenny, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40241 Kirk, Maurice. The problem of fertility 1936-1986. In: Population research in Britain, edited by Michael Murphy and John Hobcraft. 1991. 31-47 pp. London School of Economics and Political Science, Population Investigation Committee: London, England. In Eng.
Fertility trends and their study in the United Kingdom over the past 50 years are reviewed. The author suggests that the socio-demographic changes that occurred in the 1970s, particularly concerning divorce and induced abortion, formed a watershed in the country's demographic history. He concludes that current fertility is a result of the fact that men and women are now having about the number of children they actually want, and that changes in the two-child family norm are likely to force mean cohort family size below replacement level. He also concludes that such a trend is neither disastrous, nor is it likely to be reversible via the development of a pronatalist policy.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40242 Lam, David A.; Miron, Jeffrey A. Seasonality of births in human populations. Social Biology, Vol. 38, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1991. 51-78 pp. Port Angeles, Washington. In Eng.
"In this paper we re-examine the seasonality of births with two main objectives in mind. The first is to provide an overview of the basic facts about the seasonality of births, presenting new estimates of the seasonal patterns....The second...is to survey the leading hypotheses about birth seasonality that have appeared in the literature and to discuss the consistency of these hypotheses with observed seasonal patterns. Using our estimates of seasonal patterns along with other evidence in the literature, we conclude that no single explanation receives strong, consistent support from the data." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: D. A. Lam, University of Michigan, Department of Economics, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40243 Lecky, Muhammed M. Birth spacing patterns of Hausa-Fulani women. Pub. Order No. DA9103780. 1990. 201 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This study concerns Nigeria and was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of California at Berkeley.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 51(11).

57:40244 Mazur, Robert E.; Mhloyi, Marvellous. Underdevelopment, women's work and fertility in Zimbabwe. Women in International Development Working Paper, No. 164, Jun 1988. 32 pp. Michigan State University, Women in International Development: East Lansing, Michigan. In Eng.
"The nature of underdevelopment is examined for its role in shaping the current structure of women's work in Zimbabwe....Initially, we will examine the available evidence concerning the structure of the economy and nature of economic activities, with an emphasis on women's complex patterns of involvement. We will proceed by comparing the relationship of women's economic activities and status to fertility patterns and differentials in Zimbabwe with those observed in other societies. The prospects for change in fertility patterns and the extent to which these are linked to possible changes in women's activities, roles, and status will form the speculative but substantiated conclusion."
Correspondence: Michigan State University, Office of Women in International Development, 202 Center for International Programs, East Lansing, MI 48824-1035. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40245 McHenry, John P. Socio-economic development and fertility decline: an application of the Easterlin synthesis approach to data from the World Fertility Survey. Colombia, Costa Rica, Sri Lanka and Tunisia. No. ST/ESA/SER.R/101, Pub. Order No. E.91.XIII.14. ISBN 92-1-151235-2. 1991. ix, 115 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
This study is part of a project investigating the relationship between socioeconomic factors and fertility decline in developing countries through a comparative analysis involving five country case studies. Four of those countries are included here--Colombia, Costa Rica, Sri Lanka, and Tunisia--and the data are from the World Fertility Survey. The results suggest that if the dominant effect of marriage duration is interpreted primarily as a control variable for exposure to intercourse, contraceptive usage and secondary sterility are the major remaining intermediate variables affecting fertility. They also indicate that with regard to the Easterlin-Crimmins empirical formulation of contraceptive motivation, "although the theoretical concept is a promising one, more empirical and statistical attention is required so as to improve the estimator."
Correspondence: U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40246 Michev, Nikolai; Dimitrov, Emil. Present-day spatial and temporal features and tendencies in the total birth rate of the population of Bulgaria. [Savremenni prostranstveno-vremevi osobenosti i tendentsii v obshchata razhdaemost na naselenieto v Balgariya.] Naselenie, Vol. 8, No. 1, 1990. 3-12 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Regional fertility trends in Bulgaria are analyzed and illustrated using maps. Some aspects of demographic processes and policy formation relevant to the birth rate are discussed.
Correspondence: N. Michev, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geography, 7 Noemvri 1, 1040 Sofia, Bulgaria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40247 Moreno, Lorenzo. Changes in marital fertility in Mexico: results of two models. [Cambios en la fecundidad marital en Mexico: resultados de dos modelos.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 18, No. 50, Aug 1990. 75-92 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"This document presents the results of the application of two models of marital fertility--Coale-Trussell and Rodriguez-Cleland--to the analysis of the changes in this variable in Mexico between the mid 1970s and the mid 1980s. In order to illustrate this exercise, data from the surveys of the WFS [World Fertility Survey] and DHS [Demographic and Health Surveys] programmes are utilized. An interpretation of the model parameters leads to the conclusion that, by the beginning of the 1970s, the practice of limiting the number of births was already quite widespread in certain sectors of Mexican society....The conclusion is drawn that it is insufficient to interpret the Mexican fertility transition as the passage from a 'natural' state to a 'controlled' one, given that volitional practices for birth spacing [seem] to have existed before the implementation of family planning programmes was even considered in Mexico."
Correspondence: L. Moreno, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40248 Morgan, S. Philip. Late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century childlessness. American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 97, No. 3, Nov 1991. 779-807 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
Data from the 1900 and subsequent U.S. censuses are used to develop the hypothesis that the postponement of marriage and fertility are time-honored and culturally approved strategies in the United States. The author argues that fertility control within marriage was the major cause of differences in levels of childlessness observed in the nineteenth century. Own-children methods are used to present evidence of fertility control among childless women early in marriage. "The argument is not that young women born in the mid-19th century intended to be childless at young ages; it is instead that they were willing and able to postpone childbearing. With fertility delay came experience and circumstances that made it less likely that women would ever marry and/or have children. These arguments are basically the same as those used to account for contemporary childlessness in the United States."
Correspondence: S. P. Morgan, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

57:40249 Ntozi, James P. M.; Kabera, John B.; Mukiza-Gapere, Jackson; Ssekamatte-Sebuliba, John; Kamateeka, Jovah; Mbamanya, Joseph. Some determinants of fertility among Banyankole: findings of the Ankole Fertility Survey. 1991. xiv, 154 pp. Makerere University, Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics: Kampala, Uganda. In Eng.
This is one in a planned series of reports presenting results from a project concerned with the determinants of high fertility in agricultural societies. The project, fieldwork for which was completed in 1984, focuses on the province of Ankole in southwestern Uganda. This report analyzes data from a survey of 683 ever-married women. Following a description of the survey methodology, chapters are included on the characteristics of survey respondents, fertility, nuptiality, value of children, knowledge and use of contraception, and cultural factors.
For a related study by James P. M. Ntozi et al., also published in 1991, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: Makerere University, Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda. Location: University of Pennsylvania, Demography Library, Philadelphia, PA.

57:40250 O Grada, Cormac. New evidence on the fertility transition in Ireland 1880-1911. Demography, Vol. 28, No. 4, Nov 1991. 535-48 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Recent analyses of Ireland's marital fertility transition based on the Princeton...and the Stanford CPA [cohort parity analysis] measures are reassessed. Revised county estimates of [the Princeton index of marital fertility] are subjected to regression analysis, and added insight into CPA is offered by comparing Ireland with Scotland and applying the measure to three specially constructed local data sets." The period studied covers the years 1880-1911.
Correspondence: C. O Grada, University College, Department of Economics, Dublin 4, Ireland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40251 Okojie, Christiana E. E. Fertility response to child survival in Nigeria: an analysis of microdata from Bendel State. Research in Population Economics, Vol. 7, 1991. 93-112 pp. Greenwich, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper has examined the relation between own child survival and cumulative fertility among respondents in Bendel State of Nigeria. Holding constant age, education, husband's education and occupation, and some community variables, statistically significant negative associations are reported between own child survival ratio and cumulative fertility. Individual reproductive responses to actual survival ratios are statistically significant among all groups for whom the fertility equation is estimated, particularly among older women and among rural women....The results show that even with unavoidably weak identifying instrumental variables, one can still obtain an unbiased fertility response with some degree of confidence, even though the two-stage estimates of the effect of child survival on fertility appear to be less statistically precise."
Correspondence: C. E. E. Okojie, University of Benin, Benin City, Benin State, Nigeria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40252 Orubuloye, I. O. The implications of the demographic transition theory for fertility change in Nigeria. International Journal of Sociology of the Family, Vol. 21, No. 2, Autumn 1991. 161-74 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The main thrust of this paper is to examine the impact of urbanization and education of women on reproductive behaviour, family formation, family relationships and conjugal ties. The implications for transition from high to low fertility [are] also examined. The materials used in the paper have been drawn largely from recent survey data in Nigeria. It is observed that the changing pattern of life-style of the educated-urban-middle-class is significant for demographic transition in Nigeria. As the proportion of women in non-traditional occupations increases as a result of the wide educational opportunities now available for females, child mortality will continue to decline. The erosion of the traditional mechanisms of child-spacing that had begun earlier among this group would result in a major rise in fertility at the incipient stage of the transition."
Correspondence: I. O. Orubuloye, Ondo State University, PMB 5363, Ado-Ekiti, Ondo State, Nigeria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40253 Peng, Xizhe. Demographic transition in China: fertility trends since the 1950s. Studies on Contemporary China, ISBN 0-19-828715-1. LC 90-14220. 1991. xiii, 323 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author analyzes the fertility transition that has occurred in China since the early 1950s, with a focus on trends at provincial and regional levels. Using provincial data, the author also describes how the fertility transition spread from urban to rural areas and from coastal provinces to the interior. "The book reviews the evolution of China's family planning policy and assesses the impact of population control at the local level....The relationship between fertility trends and socio-economic conditions is examined as are the effects of institutional factors upon fertility differentials. Finally, the author analyses the implications of post-1978 reforms for population control and considers possible future developments."
Correspondence: Oxford University Press, 200 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016. Location: New York Public Library.

57:40254 Ramu, G. N. Changing family structure and fertility patterns: an Indian case. Journal of Asian and African Studies, Vol. 26, No. 3-4, Jul-Oct 1991. 189-206 pp. Leiden, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper analyses the relationship between the changing family structure and fertility patterns in a South Indian city. It points out that fertility decisions are made not only in relation to the couples' own marital and familial aspirations but also with regard to the social environment in which children are raised. Conditions which tend to discourage couples from having large families include the general scarcity of goods and services, limited opportunities for a good education and subsequent employment, and the dowry-dominated marriage market. This suggests that considerations governing the number of children desired are changing and that this will eventually have an impact on population growth."
Correspondence: G. N. Ramu, University of Manitoba, Department of Sociology, Winnipeg R3T 2N2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

57:40255 Rindfuss, Ronald R. The young adult years: diversity, structural change, and fertility. Demography, Vol. 28, No. 4, Nov 1991. 493-512 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This was the Presidential address at the 1991 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America. The author argues that an improved understanding of contemporary U.S. fertility behavior involves consideration of a broader range of variables than those considered in traditional demography, particularly the other roles or activities experienced by those of childbearing age. "This paper emphasizes the young adult years. In contrast to other periods of the life course, the young adult years represent a period of multiple transitions; stated differently, they are demographically dense....Towards the end of this paper, I address the possibility of an increase in childbearing. I will argue that we may be in the midst of a realignment of fertility supports and restraints, and that this realignment may be pronatalist." The young adult years are herein defined as ages 18-30. Data are from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 and five follow-ups in 1973, 1974, 1976, 1979, and 1986.
Correspondence: R. R. Rindfuss, University of North Carolina, Department of Sociology, Hamilton Hall CB# 3210, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3210. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40256 Schlau, Wilfried. An assessment of demographic development in the Baltic states. Journal of Baltic Studies, Vol. 19, No. 3, Fall 1988. 219-34 pp. Hackettstown, New Jersey. In Eng.
The causes of low birth rates in the Baltic states in the nineteenth century and their demographic impact are analyzed. Consideration is given to "general economic and political, social and cultural conditions, the enduring weight of accepted traditions, the predominant religion and the attitude toward it, the level of education, the degree of urbanization, the nature of assured medical care and, above all, the dominant philosophical mood of the time." The author concludes that "one may assume that the agrarian reforms which occurred in the former Baltic provinces of Livland, Estland, and Kurland during the nineteenth century were an important factor in the subsequent development of these territories."
Correspondence: W. Schlau, Johannes Gutenberg-Universitat, Saarstrasse 21, Postfach 3980, 6500 Mainz, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

57:40257 Singh, V. K.; Singh, O. P. On some probability distributions for forward birth interval. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1991. 145-53 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
"In the present paper we have derived two models for [forward birth interval (f.b.i.)]....The fecundability has been assumed to vary over parity. The suggested models have been derived for all types of marital durations and hence these are applicable even for shorter marital duration. Firstly, a parity specific model has been derived and thereafter it has been used to obtain a model for f.b.i. regardless of parity. For estimation of parameters of the models, expressions for rth order raw moment have been given."
Correspondence: V. K. Singh, Banaras Hindu University, Department of Statistics, Varanasi 221 005, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40258 Thomas, Neil. Land, fertility, and the Population Establishment. Population Studies, Vol. 45, No. 3, Nov 1991. 379-97 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Attempts to demonstrate the dependence of fertility decline in the Third World on radical change have often depended on simplistic statistical analyses. Here some of the data used to explore the relationship between fertility, and land size and ownership, are re-examined. It is concluded that the land-fertility hypotheses of Stokes and Schutjer are not supported by the evidence [and that]....an understanding of the wider institutional context is called for. [The philosophy of] the Population Establishment--foreign and international donors supporting population programmes and research....is examined and rejected through an analysis of ideas it derives from the World Fertility Survey and the Matlab [Bangladesh] family planning project. It is concluded that the Establishment perpetuates rapid population growth by legitimizing unpopular and elitist governments, and by misleading them to believe that fertility decline can, indeed, occur in a political economy of inequality and injustice."
For the article by C. S. Stokes and W. A. Schutjer, published in 1984, see 51:10295.
Correspondence: N. Thomas, University of Wales College of Cardiff, Sir David Owen Population Centre, POB 68, Cardiff CF1 3XA, Wales. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40259 Tu, Ping. Birth spacing patterns and correlates in Shaanxi, China. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 22, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1991. 255-63 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This study shows that most women in Shaanxi Province, China, try to have their first birth as soon as possible after their first marriage, and that the length of the interval between marriage and first birth is strongly correlated with the woman's age at first marriage. The length of...birth intervals and the likelihood of going on to have a second or third birth are strongly influenced by the sex composition of children already born, the survival time of the child initiating the interval, the duration of breastfeeding, and the woman's occupation. There is significant regional variation in the length of birth intervals and in the prevalence of second and third births in Shaanxi. The findings indicate that China's one-child policy is far from being universally accepted in Shaanxi, including its urban areas."
Correspondence: P. Tu, Peking University, Institute of Population Research, Beijing 100871, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40260 van Hoorn, W. D. The effect of female labor-force participation on the number of children. [De invloed van werken van de vrouw op het aantal kinderen.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 39, No. 10, Oct 1991. 17-26 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The impact of female labor force participation on fertility in the Netherlands is analyzed. The focus is on the difficulties of conducting such an analysis in the absence of panel data. Data are from the 1988 Netherlands Fertility Survey and concern women aged 18-37. The results suggest that there is a significant negative effect of work on expected and actual family size at all ages.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40261 Venkatacharya, K.; Teklu, Tesfay. Estimation of birth rate and related measures in Sub-Saharan Africa. RIPS Monograph Series, No. 4, ISBN 9964-971-00-1. Feb 1991. iii, 198 pp. University of Ghana, Regional Institute for Population Studies [RIPS]: Legon, Ghana. In Eng.
Three methods for the indirect estimation of fertility in developing countries are assessed. The methods considered are Coale's model stable population method, reverse survival of the population under age 15, and the generalized stable population equation developed by Preston and Coale. The primary focus is on the estimation of birth rates in Africa, but consideration is also given in one chapter to estimating death rates.
Correspondence: University of Ghana, Regional Institute for Population Studies, P.O. Box 96, Legon, Ghana. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40262 Wadhera, Surinder; Millar, Wayne J. Patterns and change in Canadian fertility 1971-1988: first births after age 30. [Evolution de la fecondite au Canada, 1971-1988: premieres naissances apres 30 ans.] Health Reports/Rapports sur la Sante, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1991. 149-62 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
"An analysis of Canada's changing pattern of births during the period 1971-1988 suggests that the tempo and timing of fertility has changed. Between 1971 and 1988, the number and rates of first births to women in their 30s increased rapidly, and rates for women younger than 25 declined....Between 1974 and 1988 the overall birth rate for single women increased from 9.9 in 1974 to 33.2 in 1988, an increase substantially higher than married women....Change in the timing and tempo of fertility has demographic, epidemiological and social policy implications. These changes make it more difficult to estimate fertility trends and to plan for social and health services."
Correspondence: S. Wadhera, Statistics Canada, Canadian Centre for Health Information, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40263 Watanabe, Yoshikazu. Analysis of the cohort fertility decline in Japanese women by social status and educational attainment. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 47, No. 2, Jul 1991. 49-60 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
The effects of social and educational status on the decline of fertility in Japan for the cohorts of women born from 1900 to 1942 are analyzed. The results show that significant differences attributable to social or educational status existed prior to the onset of the fertility decline. The decline began simultaneously in every social class with the cohort of 1905; the cohorts between the years 1910 and 1920 displayed the most rapid change; and while the high-fertility social classes exhibited the greatest decline, the post-decline fertility rate of 2.1 children per married woman was virtually identical for all classes.
Correspondence: Y. Watanabe, Ushiku 1316-8, Ushiku-Shi, Ibaraki-ken 300-12, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40264 Williams, Linda B. Determinants of unintended childbearing among ever-married women in the United States: 1973-1988. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 23, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1991. 212-5, 221 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article focuses on recent trends and social and demographic determinants of unintended childbearing in the United States and, in particular, on whether levels of unwanted childbearing have converged among women of different racial and ethnic backgrounds and socioeconomic statuses." Data are from the National Survey of Family Growth. It is noted that "over time, black women at higher income levels have become increasingly able to avoid an unwanted birth, but progress among women living below the poverty level (both black and white) appears to have halted."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 3, Fall 1990, p. 453).
Correspondence: L. B. Williams, University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1070. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40265 Wilson, Chris; Woods, Robert. Fertility in England: a long-term perspective. Population Studies, Vol. 45, No. 3, Nov 1991. 399-415 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper deals with two aspects of long-run fertility trends in England. First detailed and widely comparable fertility measures (Coale's indices) are reconstructed for England from the mid-sixteenth century to the present. Secondly the extent and nature of local and regional variation in those indices is discussed. The calculation of Coale's indices has never previously been attempted for so long a time span. Doing so requires the use of several different sources of information and a new method for combining them. The results provide significant insights into the development of the distinctive English demographic regime. The analysis of spatial patterns makes it apparent that local, rather than regional, variation was the main source of different fertility patterns in the nineteenth century. These patterns are obscured when counties or larger units are made the framework for analysis."
Correspondence: C. Wilson, London School of Economics, Population Studies, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40266 Woolbright, Louie A. Baby boomlet for older mothers? Data for birth cohorts of American white women born 1882-1953. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 10, No. 2, 1991. 183-95 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The present paper uses central and cumulative birth rates for cohorts of [U.S.] white women born between 1882 and 1953 to investigate childbearing between ages 35 and 50. While there has been a noticeable upsurge in first birth rates for cohorts in their mid of late 30s in recent years, overall central birth rates for women in their 30s are among the lowest on record, with cumulative birth rates at record low levels. A major reason for this is that these women are having relatively few third and higher order births. These cohorts will need to have a relatively high proportion of births in their older years of childbearing in order to reach replacement level. However, attaining replacement level is unlikely because such a high proportion of women have remained childless at ages 35-40 and a relatively low proportion are having three or more children."
Correspondence: L. A. Woolbright, U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, Division of Vital Statistics, Natality, Marriage and Divorce Statistics Branch, 6525 Belcrest Road, Room 840, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40267 Xie, Yu. Model fertility schedules revisited: the long-multiplicative model approach. Social Science Research, Vol. 20, No. 4, Dec 1991. 355-68 pp. Orlando, Florida. In Eng.
The author reconsiders Coale and Trussell's specification of model fertility schedules by age. The paper "formally presents model fertility schedules within the framework of categorical data analysis. Specifically, births are assumed to follow an independent Poisson distribution for each age interval of each population. Identification and estimation problems are discussed. It shows that the Coale-Trussell specification corresponds to Goodman's (1979) log-multiplicative model. Following Goodman's algorithm, the paper simultaneously estimates Coale and Trussell's v (age), m, and M through an iterative maximum likelihood procedure. This is demonstrated with the same data that were used in Coale and Trussell's article. [The author concludes that] the new estimates are superior to those of Coale and Trussell according to an array of conventional goodness-of-fit criteria."
For the study by Ansley J. Coale and T. James Trussell, published in 1974, see Population Index 40(2): 185-258.
Correspondence: Y. Xie, University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

57:40268 Xie, Zhenming. Analysis of the contradiction between the declining fertility rate and the rising birth rate in Anhui Province. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1989. 413-7 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author analyzes the contradictory phenomenon of a rising birth rate and a declining fertility rate in Anhui, China. Results show "the rise in the birth rate is a real fact, while the declining fertility rate is a false phenomenon reflected in the total fertility rate. In fact, the total marriage fertility rate has been rising, particularly among the groups below 25 years of age. This, coupled with the increase of fertile women and the rise in young women's marriage rate, will surely lead to an increase of births."
Correspondence: Z. Xie, Anhui University, Institute of Population Studies, Anhui, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40269 Yang, Quanhe. Fertility change in rural China, 1949-1982. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 10, No. 2, 1991. 157-82 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In the present study, the technique of life table analysis is used to examine fertility change by birth order in rural China, particularly in the rural portion of Anhui province. The study mainly focuses on the relationship between fertility change by birth order and planned socioeconomic changes. Change in fertility by birth order in the last few decades in rural China and Anhui is used as an indicator of the effects of planned socioeconomic changes on the process of family building. Some light is shed on the extent to which fertility changes affected women at different stages of their reproductive career. The data are from the 1/1,000 Fertility Survey of China, conducted by the Family Planning Commission in 1982."
Correspondence: Q. Yang, Australian National University, Department of Demography, GPO BOX 4, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.2. Differential Fertility

57:40270 Adams, Paul V. The determinants of local variations in fertility in Bas-Languedoc and Roussillon during the mid-nineteenth century. Annales de Demographie Historique, 1990. 155-72 pp. Paris, France. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The article describes local variations in fertility across contiguous communes in Roussillon and Bas-Languedoc [France] in the 1860s. It identifies two distinctive fertility regimes, as measured by the Princeton indices: high in Roussillon, low in Bas-Languedoc. These are compared with variations in geography, economy, religiosity, literacy and provincial culture as manifested in language. Its distinctive language and culture, Catalan, explains Roussillon's high fertility regime. Geographic and economic forces, as well as religious attachment, explain small variations within the respective fertility regimes, but not between them. The article concludes that reproductive behavior is itself a cultural attribute."
Correspondence: P. V. Adams, Shippensburg University, Department of History, Shippensburg, PA 17257. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40271 Ahmad, Alia. The status of women and fertility in Bangladesh: a micro study. South Asia Journal, Vol. 4, No. 1, Jul-Sep 1990. 67-85 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper deals with the results of a micro-level study on the status of women and fertility in Bangladesh. The main purpose of the study was to investigate whether fertility would vary according to the economic status of women in Bangladesh. The study further endeavoured to explore the mechanism through which the status of women could affect the micro-determinants of fertility. The results of the study confirm that fertility is closely related to the economic security experienced by women."
Correspondence: A. Ahmad, Lund University, School of Economics and Management, Lund, Sweden. Location: New York Public Library.

57:40272 Desjardins, Bertrand; Bideau, Alain; Heyer, Evelyne; Brunet, Guy. Intervals between marriage and first birth in mothers and daughters. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 23, No. 1, Jan 1991. 49-54 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"Marriage-first birth intervals are examined in two historical populations, Quebec [Canada] (1608-1765) and Haut-Jura [France] (1689-1980), comparing intervals in mothers and daughters, and in sister-sister pairs. The results point to a weak relationship between intervals of mothers and daughters, though it does not attain significance. Shared environment does not seem to be responsible since there is no association between pairs of sisters from the same populations."
Correspondence: B. Desjardins, Universite de Montreal, Departement de Demographie, CP 6128, Succursale A, Montreal, Quebec H3C 3J7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40273 Handwerker, W. Penn. Women's power and fertility transition: the cases of Africa and the West Indies. Population and Environment, Vol. 13, No. 1, Fall 1991. 55-78 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author discusses the differences in fertility levels between Africa and the West Indies. "Over the last three decades, fertility has fallen dramatically throughout the West Indies (close to or below replacement-level on some islands). With few exceptions, fertility has risen or has remained at high levels in Africa. The difference is that Caribbean women have been empowered to pursue goals independently of their childbearing capacity, and African women have not. African fertility can be expected to decline, as it appears it may have begun in a small number of countries, where, when, and to the extent that African women come to enjoy economic mobility opportunities like those which have been available to their Caribbean peers."
Correspondence: W. P. Handwerker, Humboldt State University, Program in Anthropology, Arcata, CA 95521. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40274 Leoprapai, Boonlert; Thongthai, Varachai. Fertility and family planning in Thailand, 1987. Journal of Population and Social Studies, Vol. 2, No. 1, Jul 1989. 21-41, 121 pp. Nakhon Pathom, Thailand. In Tha. with sum. in Eng.
Data from a contraceptive prevalence survey conducted in Thailand are used to analyze rural-urban differentials in fertility and contraceptive use. "It was found that fertility was still higher in the rural areas than in the urban areas....However, there was no [difference] in contraceptive prevalence rates between urban and rural areas due to the widespread...government contraceptive outlets. Nevertheless, there were still some differences in contraceptive prevalence rates among regions. Female sterilization was the most popular method, followed by pills and injectables. Natural and traditional methods were [rarely used]....About half of contraceptive users in Bangkok and urban areas received services from [the] private sector. The methods were mainly condom and pills through drugstores. [The] private sector had little contribution in the rural areas."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40275 Paxman, J. M.; Rizo, A.; Shepard, B. L.; Stern, C.; Tolbert, K. International Conference on Adolescent Fertility in Latin America and the Caribbean. Oaxaca, Mexico, November 6-10, 1989: overview. [1991?]. 56 pp. Pathfinder Fund: Watertown, Massachusetts; Population Council: New York, New York. In Eng.
This publication summarizes the proceedings of an international conference on adolescent fertility in Latin America and the Caribbean, which was held in Mexico in 1989. It includes "edited versions of the papers presented at the Conference, results of working groups discussions, opening and closing addresses, the 'Oaxaca Declaration' and the list of participants. The complete Conference Proceedings in Spanish are available from The Population Council, Alejandro Dumas 50, Col. Polanco, 11560 Mexico, D.F., Mexico, or from The Pathfinder Fund...."
Correspondence: Pathfinder Fund, Nine Galen Street, Watertown, MA 02172. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40276 Peres, Yochanan; Brosch, Ilana. The impact of social and economic factors on the size of Israeli Jewish families. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, Vol. 22, No. 3, Autumn 1991. 367-78 pp. Calgary, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"The purpose of this study is to compare the effectiveness of several variables in predicting and explaining actual fertility in Israel. From the wealth of literature on the subject we shall select five key variables often presented as affecting birthrate: income, level of education, duration of marriage, ethnic origin, and religiosity. The ways in which each of these are connected to birthrate are complex and depend on the socio-cultural setting. We shall discuss each variable and the ways it operates separately." Data are for a sample of 811 intact Jewish urban families in Israel.
Correspondence: Y. Peres, Tel Aviv University, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Ramat Aviv, 69 978 Tel Aviv, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SSA).

57:40277 Peru. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica (Lima, Peru). Fertility by province in Peru, 1981. [La fecundidad en las provincias del Peru, 1981.] Boletin de Analisis Demografico, No. 32, Apr 1991. 129 pp. Lima, Peru. In Spa.
An analysis of fertility differentials by province in Peru is presented, based on data from the 1981 census, and using indirect methods developed by William Brass. The report describes trends in fertility from 1940 to 1981, and also examines fertility differentials between rural and urban areas as well as by region, department, and province. Extensive statistical data on fertility is provided.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica, Avenida 28 de Julio no. 1056, Lima 1, Peru. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40278 Wijewickrema, S. A study in parity: the case of Maghrebian and Turkish women in Belgium. IPD Working Paper, No. 1991-1, 1991. 66 pp. Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Interuniversity Programme in Demography: Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
"The present article deals with the parity of Maghrebian and Turkish women present in Belgium at the census held on 1st March 1981. As in previous studies, the Maghrebians have been split into two groups--Moroccans on the one hand, and Algerians and Tunisians together on the other--and the parity of women belonging to these two groups as well as that of the Turkish women is [compared]. The cohort approach adopted here leads to analysis both in birth cohorts as well as in marriage cohorts."
Correspondence: Vrije Universiteit Brussel, IPD, Centrum voor Sociologie, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40279 Wroblewska, Wiktoria. Teenage mothers in Poland--a demographic study based on the Inquiry of Young Mothers, 1988. [Nastoletnie matki w Polsce--studium demograficzne na podstawie badania "Ankieta Mlodych Matek" z 1988 r.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 340, 1991. 156 pp. Szkola Glowna Handlowa, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Results are analyzed from a 1988 survey conducted in Poland among 1,266 married and single mothers aged 19 years and under. Demographic and social characteristics of the mothers and their partners are described. Factors considered include age, marital status, number of births, birth intervals, residence, educational level, socioeconomic status, use of tobacco and alcohol, and attitude toward religion. Characteristics of the respondents' parental families are also provided.
Correspondence: Szkola Glowna Handlowa, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodleglosci 162, 02-544 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.3. Sterility and Other Pathology

57:40280 Glover, Jonathan. Fertility and the family: the Glover Report on Reproductive Technologies to the European Commission. ISBN 0-947795-93-6. 1989. ix, 159 pp. Fourth Estate: London, England. In Eng.
This is a report on the medical, ethical, and social issues surrounding reproductive technology. The report was produced for the European Commission by a working party headed by Jonathan Glover, with members from half the countries of the European Community. "The focus of this report is not on the techniques, but on their human impact. We look first at three main groups involved: parents, donors and children. In some cases they have different interests, and we develop an approach to the conflicts that arise. We also try to bring out the way these apparently 'medical' matters raise issues that go to the heart of the kind of society we want. The next part of the report is about surrogate motherhood. We discuss conflicts of interest....[and] consider the issues raised by proposals for commercial agencies in this field. Next we discuss the issues raised by embryo research, together with other issues such as the possibility of using foetal organs for transplants....Finally, we discuss the way these new techniques can enable us to influence the kinds of people who are born." The geographic scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: Fourth Estate, Classic House, 113 Westbourne Grove, London W2 4UP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40281 Mostafa, G.; Wojtyniak, B.; Fauveau, V.; Bhuiyan, A. The relationship between sociodemographic variables and pregnancy loss in a rural area of Bangladesh. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 23, No. 1, Jan 1991. 55-63 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"This study examines the relationship between eight socio-demographic variables and the risk of pregnancy loss in a rural area of Bangladesh. The risks of spontaneous miscarriage and stillbirth were significantly associated with maternal age, pregnancy order and previous pregnancy wastage....The results of multivariate analysis showed no significant relationship between socioeconomic status, as defined by father's occupation and education...."
Correspondence: G. Mostafa, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, GPO 128, Dhaka 2, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40282 Pennington, Renee; Harpending, Henry. Effect of infertility on the population structure of the Herero and Mbanderu of Southern Africa. Social Biology, Vol. 38, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1991. 127-39 pp. Port Angeles, Washington. In Eng.
"Analysis of the fertility of Herero and Mbanderu pastoralists of the northern Kalahari Desert of Botswana [from 1896 to 1986] indicates that they have suffered from infertility. The smoothed population pyramid constructed from a recent census shows waves of births occurring about every 22 years. Since generation times in human populations are typically longer, we suggest that infertility is responsible for prematurely terminating the reproductive spans of women, resulting in a reduced generation time....Increases in fertility since the 1950's have also transformed the Herero from a slowly declining population to one growing at a rate of nearly 3.5 per cent per year."
Correspondence: R. Pennington, University of Wisconsin, Center for Demography and Ecology, 4412 Social Science Building, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706-1393. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.4. Actions and Activities Directly Affecting Fertility

F.4.1. General Fertility Control and Contraception

57:40283 Adamchak, Donald J.; Mbizvo, Michael T. Family planning information sources and media exposure among Zimbabwean men. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 22, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1991. 326-31 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This report describes, for a sample of Zimbabwean men, sources of family planning information, media exposure, media preferences, and whether they would like to learn more about family planning methods. The data are from the 1988 Zimbabwe Male Fertility Survey, a representative sample of 711 currently married men aged 20 and over. The analysis is restricted to the 512 men whose wives were aged 49 and under at the time of the survey. The radio and personal communications, followed by posters and newspapers, are the most frequently reported sources of family planning information. The radio is considered to be the best medium for learning about family planning, followed by community-based distributors. Nearly 85 percent of respondents indicated that they would like to learn more about family planning."
Correspondence: D. J. Adamchak, Kansas State University, Department of Sociology, Waters Hall, Manhattan, KS 66505-4003. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40284 Akademiya Nauk SSSR. Institut Sotsiologii (Tbilisi, USSR). All-Union Scientific-Applied Conference "Family Planning and National Traditions" (Tbilisi, November 28-30, 1988). Abstracts of papers. [Vsesoyuznaya nauchno-prakticheskaya konferentsiya "Planirovanie Sem'i i Natsional'nye Traditsii" (g. Tbilisi, 28-30 noyabrya 1988 goda). Tezisy dokladov.] 1988. 194 pp. Tbilisi, USSR. In Rus.
This publication contains abstracts of 70 papers presented at a conference held in Tbilisi, Georgia, USSR, November 28-30, 1988, on family planning and national traditions. The abstracts are organized under three major headings: general problems and determinants of family planning; social structures and services connected with family planning; and scientific research concerning family planning. The abstracts present results of a number of local family planning surveys and research carried out in various regions of the Soviet Union.
Correspondence: Goskomizdata GSSR, Prospekt Druzhby 7, Tbilisi, Georgia, USSR. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40285 Andolsek, Lidija; Kozuh-Novak, Mateja; Balogh, Sandor A.; Waszak, Cynthia S. Long-term IUD use in Ljubljana, Yugoslavia. ISBN 0-939704-05-6. LC 88-11247. 1988. xiii, 81 pp. Family Health International: Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. In Eng.
This monograph summarizes 15 years experience with the IUD in Ljubljana, Yugoslavia. It presents a retrospective analysis of 10,000 IUD insertions performed from 1964 to 1972 at the Human Reproduction Unit of the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at the University Medical Centre in Ljubljana. "The purpose of this analysis was to evaluate the IUD as a long-term contraceptive method; to this end, data were analyzed to determine the risk of severe IUD-related complications, to determine the side effects women experience while wearing IUDs and how those side effects are related to the onset of more severe problems and to find out whether IUDs may be more appropriate for certain groups of women than others."
Correspondence: Family Health International, P.O. Box 13950, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40286 Axinn, William G. Social change, family organization, and fertility limitation: tests of a theoretical model among the Tamang of Nepal. Pub. Order No. DA9116116. 1990. 293 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Michigan.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 52(1).

57:40287 Beauvalet-Boutouyrie, Scarlett. Birth control: the example of Verdun in the second half of the eighteenth century. [La limitation des naissances: l'exemple de Verdun dans la deuxieme moitie du XVIIIe siecle.] Annales de Demographie Historique, 1990. 199-215 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The spread of birth control in the medium-sized French town of Verdun from 1750 to 1789 is discussed using data from local parish records. The analysis shows that family size declined from around 6.45 children to 4.51 over this period, and that fertility control was initiated by the upper classes and later adopted by the middle and lower classes.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40288 Boulos, Michaelle L.; Boulos, Reginald; Nichols, Douglas J. Perceptions and practices relating to condom use among urban men in Haiti. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 22, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1991. 318-25 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This report is based on a survey conducted in 1986-87 of sexually active adult male residents in a low-income community of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. The objectives were to investigate knowledge of and attitudes toward condoms; to evaluate the effectiveness of the existing condom distribution program; and to obtain information that can be used in the design of strategies to increase condom acceptance and use among men throughout Haiti. A final sample of 706 sexually active adult male residents in stable unions, including a specially drawn sample of male partners of condom acceptors, were interviewed in their homes. Although condoms are almost universally known, they are rarely used. The majority felt that the responsibility for family planning should be borne by the woman. Whereas condoms may be of limited popularity for family planning purposes in Haiti, it should be determined whether they might be more acceptable as an effective means of controlling the spread of AIDS and other STDs."
Correspondence: M. L. Boulos, Centres pour le Developpement et la Sante, Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40289 Buravisit, Orapen. Family sex composition preferences and contraceptive use in Thailand: a relative risk analysis. Journal of Population and Social Studies, Vol. 2, No. 1, Jul 1989. 101-14, 124 pp. Nakhon Pathom, Thailand. In Eng. with sum. in Tha.
"The purpose of this study is to analyse the effect of differences in socioeconomic characteristics on the relationship between contraceptive use, parity and sex preference among currently married women in Thailand. The data [are] from the Third National Contraceptive Prevalence Survey in Thailand 1984....[which] covered 7,576 ever married women of reproductive age....Findings of the study suggest that overall there is no difference between the relative risk of contraception by sex composition of the family in Thai society, although there are significant differences by region, residence, educational level and religion."
Correspondence: O. Buravisit, Mahidol University, Institute for Population and Social Research, Salaya, Nakhonchaisri, Nakhonpathom 73170, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40290 Chi, I-cheng. The Nova-T IUD--a review of the literature. Contraception, Vol. 44, No. 4, Oct 1991. 341-66 pp. Stoneham, Massachusetts. In Eng.
The author reviews the literature on the Nova-T IUD, which is currently used in Western Europe, Canada, and some parts of Asia. The review suggests that this is a safe, effective, and acceptable device, but that more comparative studies are needed to resolve some of the controversial findings on its long-term efficacy.
Correspondence: I.-c. Chi, Family Health International, P.O. Box 13950, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40291 Church, Cathleen A.; Geller, Judith S. Voluntary female sterilization: number one and growing. Population Reports, Series C: Female Sterilization, No. 10, Nov 1990. 23 pp. Johns Hopkins University, Center for Communication Programs, Population Information Program [PIP]: Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
This is a review of the current status of voluntary female sterilization around the world. The authors note that this contraceptive method is currently the most widely used means of family planning in the world, with some 138 million women having undergone voluntary sexual sterilization. The report surveys the situation by region, considers issues in providing high-quality clinical services, and examines the counseling of clients and the provision of public information. A case study of Kenya is included, as is an unannotated bibliography.
Correspondence: Johns Hopkins University, Center for Communication Programs, Population Information Program, 527 St. Paul Place, Baltimore, MD 21202. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40292 Dwiyanto, Agus. Family planning demand: a supply-demand analysis of changes in the demand for family planning in Indonesia from 1976 to 1987. 1990. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Southern California.
Correspondence: University of Southern California, Doheny Library, Micrographics Department, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0182. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 51(11).

57:40293 Isvan, Nilufer A. Demographic structures and power hierarchies in peasant households. American Sociological Review, Vol. 56, No. 1, 1991. 132-9 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author comments on an article by Barbara Entwisle, John Casterline, and Hussein Sayed concerning contraceptive behavior of married couples in the context of rapid agricultural development in Egypt. She argues that the authors encounter both methodological and substantive problems in their analysis by overemphasizing the importance of nonagricultural employment and ignoring the effects of nonagricultural household industries, which are as labor-intensive as farming.
A reply by the original authors is included (pp. 136-9).
For the article by Entwisle et al., published in 1989, see 56:10283.
Correspondence: N. A. Isvan, University of Michigan, Center for Research on Social Organization, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

57:40294 Khomassuridze, Archil G. Looking at abortion and contraception. Integration, No. 29, Sep 1991. 8-15 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
Trends in contraceptive prevalence, the incidence of abortion, and the availability of family planning services in the USSR in the 1980s are examined. Consideration is given to number of abortions and abortion rates; birth rates, death rates, and natural increase by republic; maternal mortality by cause of death; and the history of abortion law in the USSR. The author describes problems concerning the use of abortion as the primary method of birth control, the lack of sex education and contraceptive knowledge among the general public and medical personnel, and the limited availability of contraceptives.
Correspondence: A. G. Khomassuridze, Zhordania Research Institute of Human Reproduction, Lenin Str. 43, Tbilisi, Georgian SSR, USSR. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40295 Kim, Eung-Suk; Lee, Sang-Hun. A study on the current contraceptive acceptors' unwanted pregnancy experience. Journal of Population, Health and Social Welfare, Vol. 10, No. 2, Dec 1990. 190-203 pp. Seoul, Korea, Republic of. In Kor. with sum. in Eng.
"The objectives of this study are to analyze the contraceptive acceptance process and unwanted pregnancy experience of current contraceptive acceptors [in the Republic of Korea] and to suggest a counterproposal for dealing with the problems or the weak points in the contraceptive acceptance process. This study uses data [on 5,082 current contraceptive acceptors] from the 1988 National Fertility and Family Health Survey...." Citing the high number of induced abortions among current contraceptive users as evidence of incorrect contraceptive use, the authors recommend that "the government should strengthen the publicity for and education on temporary contraceptive methods for birth interval practice."
Correspondence: E.-S. Kim, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, San 42-14, Bulgwang-dong, Eunpyung-ku, Seoul 122-040, Republic of Korea. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40296 Langford, Chris M. Birth control practice in Great Britain: a review of the evidence from cross-sectional surveys. In: Population research in Britain, edited by Michael Murphy and John Hobcraft. 1991. 49-68 pp. London School of Economics and Political Science, Population Investigation Committee: London, England. In Eng.
"In this chapter data on contraceptive practice are brought together within a common framework of analysis from all of the national cross-sectional sample surveys carried out in Great Britain or in England and Wales prior to the 1980s. In addition, data from the two more recent enquiries--in 1983 and 1986--are considered briefly....The main object is to examine trends in contraceptive practice; other purposes are to assess the consistency of the data and to see how well they fit the known facts about fertility."
Correspondence: C. M. Langford, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40297 Leoprapai, Boonlert; Susangkarn, Chalongphob; Soonthorndhada, Kusol; Hutaserani, Suganya; Thongthai, Varachai; Harnchanpanich, Kasem; Pituckmahaket, Orapin; Panfueng, Apavadee. Cost of public family planning services and scope of private sector provisions. IPSR Publication, No. 149, ISBN 974-587-184-2. Mar 1991. v, 45 pp. Mahidol University, Institute for Population and Social Research [IPSR]: Nakhon Pathom, Thailand; Thailand Development Research Institute, Human Resources and Social Development Program: [Bangkok], Thailand. In Eng.
This report presents findings from the first phase of a study on the cost of public family planning services in Thailand and the provision of such services by the private sector. Data for calculating costs were collected from different types of family planning service delivery units: "provincial public health center; provincial hospital; district hospital; and, subdistrict public health center in 20 sample provinces and, from the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration's general hospital and public health centers." The authors note that private sector provision of contraceptive services has declined from 23 percent in 1978 to about 18 percent in 1987. The need to increase the role of the private sector in view of the rising cost of government-supported services is noted.
Correspondence: Mahidol University, Institute for Population and Social Research, 25/25 Puthamontol, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40298 Mitra, S. N.; Larson, Ann; Foo, Gillian; Islam, Shahidul. Bangladesh Contraceptive Prevalence Survey--1989: final report. Jul 17, 1990. xxv, 203, [83] pp. Mitra and Associates: Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
This report concerns the fifth in a series of contraceptive prevalence surveys undertaken in Bangladesh since 1979. This survey involved a nationally representative sample of nearly 12,000 women of less than 50 years of age, some 9,000 from rural regions and 3,000 from urban areas. A smaller sample of about 2,000 couples was also surveyed. Following chapters on methodology and survey population characteristics, chapters are included on fertility, family planning, supply and service, the need for contraception and contraceptive use dynamics, husbands and wives, and child health care and survival. The results show a steady rise in contraceptive usage and a measurable decline in fertility.
Correspondence: Mitra and Associates, 2/17 Iqbal Road, Mohammadpur, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40299 Monteith, Richard S.; Warren, Charles W.; Caceres, Jose M.; Goldberg, Howard I. Changes in contraceptive use and fertility: El Salvador, 1978-88. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 23, No. 1, Jan 1991. 79-89 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"In El Salvador from 1978 to 1988, contraceptive use among married women 15-44 years of age increased from 34% to 47%, and the total fertility rate declined from 6.3 to 4.6 children per woman. Most of this change took place from 1978 to 1985. Sterilization is the most prevalent method used, but nearly one-half of the women who are sterilized did not use any contraception before their operation. Few young couples use reversible methods of contraception to space births or delay the start of childbearing. On average, women wait 8 years after marriage and have nearly three children before they use contraception."
Correspondence: R. S. Monteith, Centers for Disease Control, Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40300 Raina, B. L. Planning family in India: prevedic times to early 1950s. ISBN 81-7169-060-2. LC 90-903780. 1990. xiv, 262 pp. Commonwealth Publishers: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author examines the development of family planning in India from ancient times to the 1950s. The book is in two parts, with the first part covering ancient and middle ages, and the second part the modern period up to the development of independent India's first Five Year Plan.
Correspondence: Commonwealth Publishers, 4378/U-B, Gali Murarilal, Ansari Road, New Delhi 110 002, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40301 Rance, Susanna. Family planning: the debate begins. [Planificacion familiar: se abre el debate.] 1990. xvi, 192 pp. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]: La Paz, Bolivia. In Spa.
The author examines the reasons why, compared to the rest of Latin America, the population of Bolivia has the least access to family planning information and services. The debate on population issues in Bolivia is reviewed, with consideration given to family planning, induced abortion, maternal mortality, and infant health. Current attitudes and practices concerning family size, contraception, and sex education are outlined. The author also discusses the positions of government, the church, and other public bodies on such issues. The need for the development of a national family planning policy based on individual reproductive rights is stressed.
Correspondence: Consejo Nacional de Poblacion, Avenida Acre 2147, Casilla 686, La Paz, Bolivia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40302 Schneider, Jane; Schneider, Peter. Sex and respectability in an age of fertility decline: a Sicilian case study. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 33, No. 8, 1991. 885-95 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The paper examines two aspects of coitus interruptus as a sexual practice: (1) how, in the age of fertility decline in Western Europe, its meaning was reinterpreted from an earlier theological view that condemned it as licentious to a nineteenth century view that emphasized restraint, and (2) how it was actually experienced by a socially stratified birth-controlling population in rural Sicily, ca 1900-1970." The authors describe how the practice of birth control spread over time from the more- to the less-privileged social classes, while at the same time attitudes were changing toward the social acceptability of large families.
Correspondence: J. Schneider, City University of New York, PhD Program in Anthropology, 33 West 42nd Street, New York, NY 10036. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

57:40303 Seidman, Myrna; Horn, Marjorie C. Operations research: helping family planning programs work better. Progress in Clinical and Biological Research, Vol. 371, ISBN 0-471-56161-4. LC 91-3930. 1991. xvi, 561 pp. Wiley-Liss: New York, New York/Chichester, England. In Eng.
These are the proceedings of an international conference on the role of operations research (OR) in family planning program organization and administration. The conference was held in Columbia, Maryland, June 11-14, 1990. "The meetings provided a forum for family planning service providers, policymakers, and donors to exchange views with OR practitioners on how the design, conduct and application of OR can help family planning programs work better. The meetings also were an opportunity for reflecting on more than 15 years of experience in conducting OR, and providing guidance to the [U.S.] Agency for International Development (A.I.D.) on new directions for the OR Program in the 1990s." A 49-page report summarizing the discussions held both at the conference and at a workshop that was held following the conference is also available.
Correspondence: Wiley-Liss, 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158-0012. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40304 Soskolne, Varda; Aral, Sevgi O.; Magder, Lawrence S.; Reed, Deborah S.; Bowen, G. Stephen. Condom use with regular and casual partners among women attending family planning clinics. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 23, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1991. 222-5 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article reports the findings from a survey of women attending family planning clinics in Pennsylvania in the fall of 1987. The survey was designed to provide data on the prevalence of risk factors for HIV infection, levels of condom use, and factors associated with condom use. We were specifically interested in the effects on condom use of the number of sex partners and the type of partner (high risk or low risk; regular or casual)...." The authors find that "only 13 percent of the sample used condoms. Moreover, 67 percent of the women with regular partners never used condoms with those partners, and 72 percent of women who had casual partners never used them with those partners."
Correspondence: V. Soskolne, Hebrew University, Hadassah School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Mount Scopus, 91905 Jerusalem, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40305 Subrtova, Alena. Contraception, abortion, and infanticide before modern vital registration. [Kontracepce, aborty a infanticida v pramenech k predstatistickemu obdobi.] Historicka Demografie, Vol. 15, 1991. 9-46 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
"The author [investigated]...conscious limitations of fertility in the Czech Lands [during] the period before modern vital registration. She used three main...sources of data: the ecclesiastic literature..., medical literature and juridical literature." The data show that people did practice birth control, abortion, and infanticide despite laws and church teachings to the contrary.
Correspondence: A. Subrtova, Archiv Narodniho Muzea, Prague, Czechoslovakia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40306 Tian, Xueyuan. Costs of children--benefit theory and population control. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1989. 403-11 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author analyzes trends in the costs and benefits of childrearing and in related economic theories in China. Proposals for a family planning program based on rewards for fewer children and penalties for extra children are discussed.
Correspondence: X. Tian, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of Population Studies, 5 Jianguomen Nei Da Jie 5 Hao, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40307 Westoff, Charles F.; Ochoa, Luis H. Unmet need and the demand for family planning. DHS Comparative Studies, No. 5, Jul 1991. vi, 37 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"In this comparative report, the demand for family planning is estimated as the sum of unmet need and the current prevalence of contraceptive use. These estimates are for 25 [developing] countries included in the first round of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS-I) for which standard recode data files were available at the time the report was prepared. Particular attention is focused on the unmet need component of the demand for family planning and on the characteristics of the women in need."
Correspondence: Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Suite 4000, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40308 Winikoff, Beverly; Mensch, Barbara. Rethinking postpartum family planning. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 22, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1991. 294-307 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article has two goals. The first is to review the rationale behind commonly advocated postpartum [family planning] service delivery models, including both the demographic reasoning and...assumptions about women's behavior....The second goal is to report recent findings about the effects of breastfeeding on fertility and to discuss the implications of these for postpartum programs. We raise the possibility of testing alternative service delivery models that might avoid the problem of basing services on unproven behavioral and biological assumptions. Though administratively more complex, these new models may be more responsive to women's needs and desires in the postpartum period." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: B. Winikoff, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.4.2. Clinical Aspects & Use-Effectiveness Studies

57:40309 Kambic, Robert T.; Gray, Ronald H.; St. Mart, Richard; Lanctot, Claude A.; Martin, Mary C. Use-effectiveness among users of the symptothermal method of family planning. International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 17, No. 3, Sep 1991. 96-9 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"A 1987 retrospective study examined effectiveness and continuation rates for the symptothermal method (STM) of family planning among a group of 507 women in Mauritius who...were considered to be autonomous users. Women who had been using STM to space their births and those who had been using it to limit births were equally likely to have experienced an unplanned pregnancy....Women who had discontinued use to become pregnant were more likely to resume use than were those who had an accidental pregnancy or who discontinued use for other reasons."
Correspondence: R. T. Kambic, Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Department of Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40310 Kestelman, Philip; Trussell, James. Efficacy of the simultaneous use of condoms and spermicides. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 23, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1991. 226-7, 232 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The authors calculate the contraceptive effectiveness of the simultaneous use of condoms and spermicides. "The aim of this research note is...to demonstrate that if the preventive mechanisms of two methods indeed operate independently, then using the methods simultaneously results in even higher efficacy than has previously been calculated. We also argue that although the assumption of independence is questionable during typical use, it is likely to hold during perfect use--i.e., correct use at every act of intercourse. The contraceptive efficacy of simultaneous perfect use of condoms and spermicides may well be as high as that of the steroidal implant....Finally, we contend that simultaneous use of condoms and spermicides guarantees a high level of protection against sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), including the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)."
Correspondence: J. Trussell, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40311 McLaurin, Vivian L.; Dunson, Thomas R. A comparative study of 35 mcg and 50 mcg combined oral contraceptives: results from a multicenter clinical trial. Contraception, Vol. 44, No. 5, Nov 1991. 489-503 pp. Stoneham, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"A comparative multicenter clinical trial of two combined oral contraceptives (OCs) differing only in the estrogen content (35 mcg ethinyl estradiol versus 50 mcg mestranol) was conducted at five clinics located in Yugoslavia, Egypt, Sri Lanka, Costa Rica and Mexico. The trial was designed to determine the differences between Norinyl 1+35 (Syntex) and Norinyl 1+50 (Syntex) in rates and reasons of discontinuation, and frequency of selected side effects which might contribute to method discontinuation. This report includes analysis of 1,698 women...randomly allocated to one of the above OCs between October 1982 and January 1984....The results of this comparative study demonstrate the reliable contraceptive efficacy of both Norinyl 1+35 and Norinyl 1+50. In addition, both OCs were well-tolerated and demonstrated good cycle control."
Correspondence: T. R. Dunson, Family Health International, P.O. Box 13950, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40312 Oakley, Deborah; Sereika, Susan; Bogue, Erna-Lynne. Oral contraceptive pill use after an initial visit to a family planning clinic. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 23, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1991. 150-4 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A retrospective study of 1,311 women making initial family planning visits to metropolitan-area health department clinics [in the United States] found that many women switch methods or discontinue use in the first year following the clinic visits. Among a subgroup of women, most of whom selected the pill as their primary method..., almost half either changed methods or used no method at some point during a follow-up period averaging eight months. This includes 13 percent of women who made two or more changes. In addition, only 42 percent said they took a pill every day....Despite such irregularities, pill users were approximately one-third as likely to get pregnant during the study period as women...who did not use the pill at all."
Correspondence: D. Oakley, University of Michigan School of Nursing, Center for Nursing Research, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40313 Sivin, Irving; Stern, Janet; Coutinho, Elsimar; Mattos, Carlos E. R.; El Mahgoub, Sayed; Diaz, Soledad; Pavez, Margarita; Alvarez, Francisco; Brache, Vivian; Thevenin, Francisco; Diaz, Juan; Faundes, Anibal; Diaz, M. Margarita; McCarthy, Terence; Mishell, D. R.; Shoupe, Donna. Prolonged intrauterine contraception: a seven-year randomized study of the Levonorgestrel 20 mcg/day (LNg20) and the Copper T380 Ag IUDs. Contraception, Vol. 44, No. 5, Nov 1991. 473-80 pp. Stoneham, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"A levonorgestrel-releasing IUD and the Copper T 380Ag IUD were in randomized comparison for seven years in five clinics. In two other clinics the randomized study was truncated at five years, but use of the Copper T continued. No pregnancies occurred to users of either device in years 6 and 7. Cumulative pregnancy rates were 1.1 per 100 at seven years for the steroid-releasing and 1.4 per 100 for the copper-releasing IUDs....[The results suggest that] the Copper T380 family and the LNg20 IUDs represent the most effective reversible contraceptive methods yet studied in long-term randomized trials."
Correspondence: I. Sivin, Population Council, Center for Biomedical Research, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10021. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40314 Sivin, Irving; Diaz, Soledad; Pavez, Margarita; Alvarez, Francisco; Brache, Vivian; Diaz, Juan; Odlind, Viveca; Olsson, Sven-Eric; Stern, Janet. Two-year comparative trial of the Gyne T380 Slimline and Gyne T380 Intrauterine Copper devices. Contraception, Vol. 44, No. 5, Nov 1991. 481-7 pp. Stoneham, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"In a randomized trial of the Gyne T380 Slimline [IUD], the two-year pregnancy rate was 0.3 per 100 and the continuation rate was 65 per 100. These rates did not differ statistically from those of the standard Gyne T380, nor did other performance parameters differ between devices by the log-rank test. Women under age 30 had lower continuation rates using either device than did women age 30 or older at admission because of removals for planned pregnancy. Conception rates among those who desired pregnancy were 35 per 100 at one month and 86 per 100 at one year." Some 1,000 women under the age of 41 who had at least one child were studied at five clinics in Santiago, Chile, and in the Dominican Republic.
Correspondence: I. Sivin, Population Council, Center for Biomedical Research, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10021. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.4.3. Evaluation of Programs

57:40315 Bertrand, Jane T.; Kashwantale, Chibalonza; Balowa, Djunghu; Baughman, Nancy C.; Chirwisa, Chirhamolekwa. Social and psychological aspects of tubal ligation in Zaire: a follow-up study of acceptors. International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 17, No. 3, Sep 1991. 100-7 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"A 1987-1988 survey of 453 Zairian women who had had a tubal ligation found that, on average, the women were 37 years old and had seven living children at the time of the operation. Ninety-two percent were married, and of these, 95 percent had consulted with their husbands before undergoing the procedure....The two main reasons for having had the operation were 'health' and 'had enough children.' Most of the women said they had experienced no change at all or a change for the better in their health, ability to do physical labor and marital relations. However, 14 percent admitted having some regret over the operation....Although the women who had undergone the operation were generally positive about the sterilization, they were reluctant to discuss it openly with friends and neighbors." The authors recommend that future programs include a strong information-dissemination component.
Correspondence: J. T. Bertrand, Tulane University, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, 1501 Canal Street, New Orleans, LA 70112. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40316 Chamratrithirong, Aphichat; Bennett, Anthony; Prasartkul, Pramote; Podhisita, Chai. Family planning program effort and the initiation of contraceptive use: a multi-level analysis. Journal of Population and Social Studies, Vol. 2, No. 1, Jul 1989. 1-20, 115 pp. Nakhon Pathom, Thailand. In Eng. with sum. in Tha.
The purpose of this report is "to identify key components of the Thai family planning program, obtain measures of how they are implemented in the field and, by statistical analysis, determine which components in what settings are associated with superior program performance....The study recommends that (1) national family planning programs need to include measurements of [socioeconomic] setting for administrative areas in their management information systems; (2) among family planning program inputs, those that improve access to services have had the greatest impact on performance in Thailand and, (3) any sub-national study of program effort and performance should be conducted while the family planning program is young and growing, or among areas of lagging, but not stagnant achievement."
Correspondence: A. Chamratrithirong, Mahidol University, Institute for Population and Social Research, Salaya, Nakhonchaisri, Nakhonpathom 73170, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40317 Chandna, R. C. Population policy and the Five Year Plans. Population Geography, Vol. 11, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1989. 77-85 pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
The effectiveness of India's Five Year Plans for population policy, which were begun in 1951, is examined. The author notes that only in the most recent (seventh) Five Year Plan has the principle of voluntarism been emphasized. Efforts continue to be made to generate an atmosphere conducive to family planning by raising the age at marriage, providing real choice of contraceptive methods, implementing immunization programs, and promoting female education and employment.
Correspondence: R. C. Chandna, Panjab University, Department of Geography, Chandigarh 160 014, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40318 Duraisamy, P.; Malathy, R. Impact of public programs on fertility and gender specific investment in human capital of children in rural India: cross sectional and time series analyses. Research in Population Economics, Vol. 7, 1991. 157-87 pp. Greenwich, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
The authors investigate "the impact of public programs on household decision making concerning fertility, child mortality (health), and child schooling [in India]....One objective of the present study is to estimate cross sectional variations in program impacts on household decision making by using a wider geographical coverage of district level data for 1971 and 1981 as well as changes within districts over this decade....Our second objective...is to analyse how the variation in the public program [subsidies] and services influence sex-specific investments in the schooling of boys and girls....The third objective...is to use the panel feature of our data to examine the bias, if any, in cross section estimates by employing fixed effects methodology."
Correspondence: P. Duraisamy, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40319 Foreit, Karen G.; Haustein, Delia; Winterhalter, Max; La Mata, Ernesto. Costs and benefits of implementing family planning services at a private mining company in Peru. International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 17, No. 3, Sep 1991. 91-5 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"This article presents the results of a prospective cost-benefit analysis that was performed at a private mining company in Peru to help management determine whether to add integrated maternal and child health and family planning services to their existing medical plan. It also reports on the costs and the impact of the first two years of providing family planning services in the workplace."
Correspondence: K. G. Foreit, Futures Group, 1101 Fourteenth Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20005. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40320 Hardee-Cleaveland, Karen; Janowitz, Barbara