S. Loss of population in the USSR. [Poteri naseleniya
SSSR.] 1989. 298 pp. Chalidze Publications: Benson, Vermont. In Rus.
The author discusses the loss of population that occurred in the Soviet Union during collectivization and famine in the period 1930-1938 and, to a certain degree, during the Civil War and World War II. The loss of population due to Stalin's purges is not discussed.
Correspondence: Chalidze Publications, Benson, VT 05731. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Daniel. The population of Egypt in the nineteenth
century. Asian and African Studies, Vol. 21, No. 1, Mar 1987.
11-32 pp. Haifa, Israel. In Eng.
The author traces the demographic development of Egypt from 1800 to 1900. He critically evaluates the census data from that period, develops population estimates and growth rates, and discusses demographic patterns for each half of the century. The demographic transition is described, with references to the eradication of the plague and smallpox and to the formation of new urban centers. The effect of European settlement is also discussed.
Correspondence: D. Panzac, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Groupe de Recherches et d'Etudes sur le Proche-Orient, Aix-en-Provence, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SY).
Thomas M. A simulation of the sixteenth-century population
collapse in the Basin of Mexico. Annals of the Association of
American Geographers, Vol. 81, No. 3, Sep 1991. 464-87 pp. Washington,
D.C. In Eng.
A system dynamics computer simulation is applied to an analysis of the population dynamics of the Mexican Basin in the sixteenth century. The model simulates the demographic response of the Amerindian population to the web of causal factors that affected it, including its demographic, epidemiological, cultural, social, and economic aspects. "The results of these simulations indicate that: (1) a very large depopulation was possible given reasonable assumptions as to cause; (2) the overall scale of depopulation was profound--nearly 90 percent over the course of 100 years--from [a population of] more than 1.5 million in 1519 to [one of] less than 200,000 by 1610; (3) the temporal pattern of depopulation formed an irregular, step-like pattern and most of the population loss occurred in the first fifty years of Spanish occupance; (4) this decline was primarily due to a series of 'virgin soil' epidemic crises, although famine was also important; and (5) there is no need to presume an Amerindian population genetically less able to resist disease, nor is it necessary to presume Spanish cruelty to explain this holocaust."
Correspondence: T. M. Whitmore, University of North Carolina, Department of Geography, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
57:40075 Angarita de
Ruiz, Esperanza; Escobar Morant, Gladys A. The population
of Colombia according to the 1985 census. [La poblacion en
Colombia a partir del censo 1985.] Boletin de Estadistica, No. 437, Aug
1989. 185-234 pp. Bogota, Colombia. In Spa.
This is an evaluation report on the accuracy of the 1985 census of Colombia. The study is primarily based on the findings of a post-census survey conducted in 1985. Data are presented on population by age and sex, by zone and region, projections up to 2025, and population of municipalities.
Location: New York Public Library.
Judith. One billion and counting. China Business
Review, Vol. 18, No. 3, May-Jun 1991. 14-16, 18 pp. Washington, D.C. In
Some preliminary results from the 1990 census of China are reviewed. The author also discusses some problem areas, such as the unexpectedly high rate of population growth reported, the imbalance in the sex ratio at the expense of females, and the floating or migrant population.
Correspondence: J. Banister, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for International Research, China Branch, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
Statistics Canada (Ottawa, Canada). Postcensal annual
estimates of population by marital status, age, sex and components of
growth for Canada, provinces and territories, June 1, 1991.
[Estimations annuelles postcensitaires de la population suivant l'etat
matrimonial, l'age, le sexe et composantes de l'accroissement, Canada,
provinces et territoires au 1er juin 1991.] Vol. 9, Pub. Order No.
91-210. Nov 1991. 102 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
Population estimates are presented for Canada in 1991 by age, sex, and marital status. The estimates are provided for the whole country, provinces, and territories and are based on the 1986 census.
Correspondence: Statistics Canada, Publications Division, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:40078 Mulry, Mary
H.; Spencer, Bruce D. Total error in PES estimates of
population. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical
Association, Vol. 86, No. 416, Dec 1991. 839-63 pp. Alexandria,
Virginia. In Eng.
"We describe a methodology for estimating the accuracy of dual systems estimates (DSE's) of population, census estimates of population, and estimates of undercount in the census. The DSE's are based on the census and a post-enumeration survey (PES). We apply the methodology to the 1988 dress rehearsal census of St. Louis and east-central Missouri and we discuss its applicability to the 1990 [U.S.] census and PES. The methodology is based on decompositions of the total (or net) error into components, such as sampling error, matching error, and other nonsampling errors. Limited information about the accuracy of certain components of error, notably failure of assumptions in the 'capture-recapture' model, but others as well, lead us to offer tentative estimates of the errors of the census, DSE, and undercount estimates for 1988. Improved estimates are anticipated for 1990."
Comments are included by Eugene P. Ericksen and Joseph B. Kadane (pp. 855-7) and Kenneth W. Wachter and Terence P. Speed (pp. 858-61), as well as a rejoinder by Mulry and Spencer (pp. 861-3).
Correspondence: M. H. Mulry, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Support Division, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).
V. 1991 population census: some facts and policy
issues. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 26, No. 37, Sep 14,
1991. 2,148-52 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
This article summarizes an official publication issued in March 1991, and contains the first results of the 1991 census of India. It presents data on population size and growth by state and Union territory, the sex ratio, literacy, urban population, and variations in population among states and Union territories.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
Kingdom. Scotland. Registrar General (Edinburgh, Scotland).
Mid-1990 population estimates, Scotland. Jun 1991. 16 pp.
Edinburgh, Scotland. In Eng.
"This booklet contains estimates of the population of Scotland by age, sex and area as at 30 June 1990. Some relevant historical data and a table on population density are also presented."
Correspondence: General Register Office for Scotland, Population Statistics Branch, Ladywell House, Ladywell Road, Edinburgh EH12 7TF, Scotland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Cesar; Licandro, Oscar. Projections of the Uruguayan
population. [Proyecciones de poblacion uruguaya.] Proyecto Uruguay
2000, No. 10, LC 90-165342. 1989. 56 pp. FESUR: Montevideo, Uruguay. In
Population projections are presented for Uruguay up to the year 2015. The basic projections are provided for five-year intervals by age and sex. The authors also attempt to project changes in the urban and rural population by age and sex for the same time period.
Correspondence: FESUR, Juan Carlos Gomez 1309, Montevideo, Uruguay. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Beatrix. Projecting household size using truncated
discrete distributions. [Prognose der Haushaltsgrosse unter
Verwendung kupierter diskreter Verteilungen.] Zeitschrift fur
Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 17, No. 1, 1991. 69-81 pp. Wiesbaden,
Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The author develops projections of household size for Germany up to the year 2020. "By applying a truncated Poisson distribution one can easily obtain projections of the household size. The results are surprisingly good compared with the standard methods for forecasting household size...and one may profit by using the parameter of the distribution for the projection instead of estimating every percentage of each household class....For projecting the development of the German private households the appropriate distribution is chosen with analytical methods out of the class of Poisson distributions and negative binomial distributions....The results will be compared with projections obtained by the headship rate method as well as with those achieved by studies using micro-analytical or macro-analytical [approaches]."
Correspondence: B. Brecht, Universitat Konstanz, Sonderforschungsbereich 178/C7, Postfach 5560, 7750 Constance, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Quebec (Province). Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec (Quebec,
Canada). Demographic prospects for Quebec province and its
regions, 1986-2046. [Perspectives demographiques du Quebec et de
ses regions, 1986-2046.] Statistiques Demographiques, ISBN
2-551-14100-1. 1990. 397 pp. Quebec, Canada. In Fre.
Future demographic prospects for the Canadian province of Quebec are analyzed up to the year 2046. Ten alternative scenarios are considered, according to various assumptions concerning fertility, mortality, and migration. The projections are presented separately by age and sex, as well as by region.
Correspondence: Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec, 117 rue Saint-Andre, Quebec, Quebec G1K 3Y3, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica [DANE] (Bogota,
Colombia); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia
[CELADE] (Santiago, Chile); Colombia. Departamento Nacional de
Planeacion [DNP] (Bogota, Colombia); International Development Research
Centre [IDRC] (Ottawa, Canada). National population
projections: Colombia, 1950-2025. [Proyecciones nacionales de
poblacion: Colombia, 1950-2025.] Feb 1991. 73 pp. Bogota, Colombia. In
Population projections based on official data to the year 2025 are presented for Colombia, including figures from the 1985 census. The projections are presented by age and sex at five-year intervals from 1950 to 2025. Projected changes in demographic indicators are also included, as well as data on sex ratios, fertility rates, and the school-age population. Abbreviated life tables are also provided by sex.
Correspondence: Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica, Centro Administrativo Nacional, Apartado Nacional 8798, Bogota DE, Colombia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Custodio N. P. S. The city and district of Porto to the
year 2030: perspectives on demographic growth, 1980-2030. [Cidade
e distrito do Porto no horizonte do ano 2030: perspectivas de
crescimento demografico, 1980-2030.] Revista do Centro de Estudos
Demograficos, No. 29, 1987-1988. 169-220 pp. Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The author examines the Portuguese city of Porto's lack of growth in relation to the positive net in-migration for the region of Porto. Implications for regional and city planning are assessed, and several projections to the year 2030 are presented.
Correspondence: C. N. P. S. Conim, Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Centro de Estudos Demograficos, Avenida Antonio Jose de Almeida 5, P-1078 Lisbon Codex, Portugal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
H.; Zakee, R. Population forecasts for the Netherlands
during the 1980s: how far were they wrong? [Nationale
bevolkingsprognoses in de jaren tachtig: hoever zaten ze er naast?]
Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, No. 7, Jul 1991. 30-9 pp. Voorburg,
Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
An evaluation of the accuracy of the seven national population forecasts produced by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics during the 1980s is presented. "Compared with the eight national forecasts made in the preceding three decades those of the 1980s were more successful. The number of live births in particular was forecasted better in the last decade. Regarding fertility of subsequent generations of women it was rightly assumed that: the numbers of children would decrease, [and] the ages at which women have their children would increase. Other assumptions made during the 1980s that turned out to be right were: increasing life expectancy at birth with a stable difference of about 6.5 years between the expectations for men and those for women, [and] continuing net immigration into the Netherlands."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:40087 de Beer,
J. Uncertainty variants in population forecasts for the
Netherlands. [Onzekerheidsvarianten van de Nationale
Bevolkingsprognose.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 39, No. 9,
Sep 1991. 31-9 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"Because of the uncertainty of population forecasts the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics publishes a Low and a High variant next to the Medium variant....Variants are obtained by using a deterministic model. Hence the probability that the interval between the variants [covers] the true future values is unknown. Under reasonable assumptions a statistical confidence interval for total population size can be derived. The basic assumption is that the forecast errors of population growth are serially correlated. If a first-order autoregressive model is estimated on the basis of all population forecasts published...since 1950, it turns out that the interval between the Low and High variants corresponds reasonably close to a two-thirds confidence interval in the next two decades."
Correspondence: J. de Beer, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, Department of Population Studies, P.O. Box 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Piero; Molina, Stefano; Monteverdi, Sandro; Marchese, Carla; Del Boca,
Daniela. The future of the Italians: demography, economy,
and society toward a new century. [Il futuro degli Italiani:
demografia, economia e societa verso il nuovo secolo.] ISBN
88-7860-030-X. 1990. vii, 270 pp. Edizioni della Fondazione Giovanni
Agnelli: Turin, Italy. In Ita.
The authors discuss future demographic trends in Italy and their likely socioeconomic consequences. Chapters are included on the implications of these trends for the labor force, education, health, and the political situation. The prospects for the various regions of the country are examined separately in a statistical appendix.
Correspondence: Edizioni della Fondazione Giovanni Agnelli, Via Giacosa 38, 10125 Turin, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). Selected
demographic indicators from the United Nations population projections
as assessed in 1990. Institute of Population Problems Research
Series, No. 267, Feb 22, 1991. vi, 143 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
A selection of data from the U.N. population projections as assessed in 1990 is presented. In addition to information on population by age and sex, total fertility rates, and life expectancy, the publication provides data not included in the U.N. publication, such as average and median age of the population and population projections developed by the World Bank up to 2150.
Correspondence: Ministry of Health and Welfare, Institute of Population Problems, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Jean; Thill-Ditsch, Germaine. Population projections,
1990-2020. [Projections de population 1990-2020.] Bulletin du
STATEC, Vol. 37, No. 4, 1991. 159-70 pp. Luxembourg. In Fre.
Population projections for Luxembourg are given up to the year 2020. Three alternative projections are provided and are made separately for the Luxembourg and foreign resident population. Differences in the age distributions of the alternative projections are analyzed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Richard; Jones, Gavin. South Asia's future population:
are there really grounds for optimism? International Family
Planning Perspectives, Vol. 17, No. 3, Sep 1991. 108-13 pp. New York,
New York. In Eng.
"In this article, we assess the United Nations (U.N.) and World Bank population projections for this region against the realities of the South Asian context and present an alternative scenario. We conclude by considering some of the more important socioeconomic effects of rapid population growth and the implications for family planning programs."
Correspondence: R. Leete, Prime Minister's Department, Economic Planning Unit, Jalan Dato' Onn, 50502 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Jim. Britain in 2010. PSI Report, No. 704, ISBN
0-85374-492-0. 1991. xx, 364 pp. Policy Studies Institute: London,
England. In Eng.
This report, which examines options for change in Britain over the the next 20 years, was prepared by a team of experts at the Policy Studies Institute. Global developments as a whole and developments in the world's major regions are discussed. The section on Britain presents a review of population forecasts, including those for mortality, fertility, and migration. It concludes that the total population of Britain may increase by about 2.6 million by the year 2010 but that the age structure will not change dramatically, except for a significant increase in those older than age 80.
Correspondence: BEBC, 9 Albion Close, Parkstone, Poole, Dorset BH12 3LL, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Statistisk Sentralbyra (Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway).
Population projections, 1990-2050: national and regional
figures. [Framskriving av folkemengden, 1990-2050: nasjonale og
regionale tall.] Norges Offisielle Statistikk, No. B983, ISBN
82-537-3571-5. 1991. 181 pp. Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor. with
sum. in Eng.
Population projections are presented for Norway by sex, age, and region. "For the whole country and for counties the results are given up to the year 2050, whereas data for the municipalities are given up to the year 2015. There are three different assumptions for fertility and for net migration in the projection. Two alternatives are given for internal migration beside one alternative without any migration. In all calculations a steady increase in life expectancy up to the year 2010 is assumed. Of the possible combinations of assumptions altogether 9 different projection alternatives have been produced."
Correspondence: Statistisk Sentralbyra, P.B. 8131 DEP, Oslo 1, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Michael. Prognoses, models, and scenarios on the
population development of Austria to 2030. [Prognosemodelle und
Szenarien zur raumlichen Bevolkerungsentwicklung Osterreichs bis 2030.]
In: Osterreich zu Beginn des 3. Jahrtausends: Raum und Gesellschaft,
Prognosen, Modellrechnungen und Szenarien, edited by E. Lichtenberger.
ISBN 3-7001-1560-1. LC 90-104582. 1989. 73-99 pp. Vienna, Austria. In
The author discusses likely population developments in Austria over the next 40 years. The results suggest that the population of working age will increase by 9 percent and the old-age population by 10 percent up to 2001. At the same time, the population will increase in the west and around major urban centers, while declining in city centers and in marginal areas. Further developments up to 2030 are uncertain.
Location: University of California Library, Berkeley, CA.
Instituto Nacional de Servicios Sociales [INSERSO] (Madrid,
Spain). The third age in Spain: quantitative aspects.
Projections of the Spanish population aged 60 and older for the period
1986-2010. [La tercera edad en Espana: aspectos cuantitativos.
Proyecciones de la poblacion espanola de 60 y mas anos para el periodo
1986-2010.] ISBN 84-86852-85-4. 1989. ix, 210 pp. Madrid, Spain. In
This publication predicts the coming trends in the Spanish population aged 60 and older from 1986 to 2010. The projections are based on data from the 1981 census and from the national population register. The focus is on changes in the characteristics of the elderly population by age and sex, while consideration is given to regional differences in the growth of the elderly population and the consequences of that growth.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Servicios Sociales, Ministerio de Asuntos Sociales, Maria de Guzman 52, 28003 Madrid, Spain. Location: New York Public Library.
Abrami, Valerio. Aging and social expenditures in Italy:
some issues associated with population projections. Statistical
Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Vol. 7,
No. 4, 1990. 221-30 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"After describing the main results of the recent Italian population projections, and some possible consequences...aging may have on social expenditures, this paper focuses on attempts to improve the accuracy of development assumptions, with special regard to natural components. Emphasis is placed on the importance of applying specific methodological tools to define self-explanatory assumptions for fertility and mortality and to produce projections which could be considered, with reasonable limitations, as real forecasts."
Correspondence: V. Terra Abrami, Italian National Institute of Statistics, Studies Department, via Cesare Balbo 16, I-00184 Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Win. Population projections for Myanmar, 1983-2013.
Asia-Pacific Population Journal, Vol. 6, No. 2, Jun 1991. 21-54 pp.
Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
"This article attempts to produce plausible population estimates for Myanmar for the 30-year period from 1983 to 2013, using 1983 census data. Besides projecting the future size of the population, the article examines the levels and trends in basic components of population growth and examines some of the implications of rapid population growth." The effects of that growth on education, agriculture, health, and the country's age structure are assessed.
Correspondence: W. Tint, Institute of Economics, Department of Statistics, Yangon, Myanmar. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Gordana; Stevanovic, Radoslav. Belgrade population
projections (1981-2011). [Projekcije stanovnistva Beograda
(1981-2011).] Statisticka Revija, Vol. 39, No. 1-2, 1989. 58-70 pp.
Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
Population projections to the year 2011 are presented for Belgrade, Yugoslavia. The projections are given separately by urban district, and a distinction is made between population growth from natural increase and from migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Kingdom. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS] (London,
England). 1989-based national population projections.
Series PP2, No. 17, ISBN 0-11-691341-X. 1991. vi, 40 pp. London,
England. In Eng.
This is one of a series providing population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries. It consists of a report and an accompanying microfiche. Projections are included by age and sex up to 2059 for the United Kingdom and Great Britain, and up to 2029 for constituent countries. The report describes the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the projections.
Correspondence: Her Majesty's Stationery Office, Publications Centre, PO Box 276, London SW8 5DT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago,
Chile). Latin America: population projections, calendar
years, 1950-2000. [America Latina: proyecciones de poblacion,
anos calendarios, 1950-2000.] Boletin Demografico/Demographic Bulletin,
Vol. 24, No. 48, Pub. Order No. LC/DEM/G.106. Jul 1991. 282 pp.
Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
Projections are presented for the total population of the countries of Latin America by sex and quinquennial age group for the period 1950-2000. Data are also included on the main indices of fertility, mortality, natural increase, migration, and population growth.
Correspondence: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
States. Hawaii. Department of Business, Economic Development and
Tourism (Honolulu, Hawaii). Bibliography of population
forecasts and projections for Hawaii, 1991. Hawaii Statistical
Report, No. 220, Aug 1991. 12 pp. Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
This bibliography contains 11 annotated citations to the literature published since 1987 on population forecasts and projections for Hawaii, and updates a series of earlier bibliographies on this topic. A selection of population projections for the state and constituent islands published before and after 1981 is included.
For a previous bibliography in this series, published in 1987, see 53:30114.
Correspondence: Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, Honolulu, HI. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:40102 Di Comite,
Luigi. Old and new demographic balances in the
Mediterranean Basin. [Velhos e novos equilibrios demograficos na
area da Bacia Mediterranica.] Revista do Centro de Estudos
Demograficos, No. 29, 1987-1988. 9-36 pp. Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The author studies population growth from 1950 to 2025 in the countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea, with a focus on the years 1980 and 2000. He concludes that the overall rate of population growth is decreasing throughout the region and that the number of aged will increase in Europe, while in Asian and African countries the working population will grow. Sections on spatial distribution, age distribution, and fertility rates are included.
Correspondence: L. Di Comite, Universita degli Studi di Bari, Palazzo Ateneo, 70121 Bari, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Barbara-Christine N. Dynamics of urban and rural
population growth in the State of Bahia: 1940-1980. [Dinamica do
crescimento demografico urbano e rural no Estado da Bahia: 1940-1980.]
Geografia, Vol. 14, No. 27, Apr 1989. 67-76 pp. Rio Claro, Brazil. In
Por. with sum. in Eng.
"The study of the urban and rural growth in the State of Bahia [Brazil] during the period of 1940-80 is the purpose of this research. This study was done through an integrated analysis of the annual geometric growth rates, and the application of several growth models. The analysis showed that the urbanization and 'de-ruralization' processes were intense and that this trend will be stronger in the near future."
Correspondence: B.-C. N. Silva, Universidade Federal de Bahia, Departamento de Geografia, Rua Augusto Viana s/n, Canela, 4000 Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. Location: New York Public Library.