57:30735 Beaumont,
Paul M. ECESIS: an interregional economic-demographic
model of the United States. Garland Studies in Historical
Demography, ISBN 0-8240-3398-1. LC 89-37798. 1989. xii, 490 pp. Garland
Publishing: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
"The
purpose of this research is to determine to what extent a simultaneous
economic-demographic interregional model provides improved projection
and simulation properties over regional economic and demographic models
used independently of one another." The model considered is ECESIS, an
interregional economic-demographic model of the United States. The
model is interdisciplinary in concept and takes into account
differences between the national and subnational levels of analysis.
"ECESIS consists of four major model elements....Fifty-one regional
economic models...are linked by an interregional trade model so that
wages, employment and production are simultaneously determined in all
regions. An interregional cohort-component demographic accounts model
simultaneously determines age-sex disaggregated population, births and
deaths for each region. The economic and demographic models are linked
by an interregional migration model that determines flows of people.
The system is completely simultaneous. A change in any submodel will
require adjustments in all other
submodels."
Correspondence: Garland Publishing, 136 Madison
Avenue, New York, NY 10016. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
57:30736 Becker,
Henk A. Life histories and generations. ISBN
90-5187-049-3. 1991. xxxiv, 617 pp. Rijksuniversiteit te Utrecht, ISOR:
Utrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
These are the proceedings of a
symposium held June 22-23, 1989, at the Netherlands Institute for
Advanced Study in the Humanities and Social Sciences at Wassenaar, on
the relation between life histories and generations. The approach is
interdisciplinary, and the papers included examine both methodological
and conceptual issues. These illustrate the advantages and drawbacks
of different approaches and demonstrate the power of various analytical
techniques. The primary geographical focus is on Europe.
Selected
items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population
Index.
Correspondence: Rijksuniversiteit te Utrecht, ISOR,
Heidelberglaan 1, Postbus 80140, 3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:30737 Blanchet,
Didier. Demo-economic modeling: the economic consequences
of demographic trends. [Modelisation demo-economique:
consequences economiques des evolutions demographiques.] Travaux et
Documents Cahier, No. 130, ISBN 2-7332-0130-1. 1991. vi, 136, 21 pp.
Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France;
Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
The author
examines the basic elements of economic growth theory in order to
assess the role played by demographic variables. The theories
considered include the Malthusian model, the Solow model, and models
developed by Boserup and others. The author introduces some new
contributions to the field of theoretical models, including the
integration of demographic transition theory to the Malthusian model,
the incorporation of age structure effects in the Solow growth model,
and the application of disequilibrium theory to the study of the link
between population and employment. The focus of the study is on
understanding basic relationships between demographic and economic
factors as a prerequisite for building more disaggregated and more
realistic models.
Correspondence: Presses Universitaires de
France, Departement des Revues, 14 Avenue du Bois-de-l'Epine, BP 90,
91003 Evry Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
57:30738 Fisch,
Oscar. A structural approach to the form of the population
density function. Geographical Analysis, Vol. 23, No. 3, Jul 1991.
261-75 pp. Columbus, Ohio. In Eng.
"The central objective of this
paper is to explore a comprehensive structural modeling approach that
extracts analytical density functions answering questions raised by
recent empirical studies."
Correspondence: O. Fisch, City
University of New York, Lehman College and Graduate Center, Department
of Economics, Bedford Park Boulevard West, Bronx, NY 10468.
Location: Princeton University Library (UES).
57:30739 Germany,
Federal Republic of. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung
(Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of). Methods for
evaluating demographic biographies: papers from meetings of the German
Society for Demography's working group on "Demographic Methods"
[Methoden zur Auswertung demographischer Biographien: Beitrage aus
Sitzungen des Arbeitskreises "Bevolkerungswissenschaftliche Methoden"
der Deutschen Gesellschaft fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft.] Materialien
zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 67, 1990. 103 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany,
Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This publication contains three papers
presented at meetings of the German Society for Demography's working
group on demographic methods. The papers focus on methods for analyzing
life history data, problems in analyzing interviews dealing with
couples' relationships, and methodological problems in the longitudinal
analysis of households and families. The geographical focus is on West
Germany.
Correspondence: Bundesinstitut fur
Bevolkerungsforschung, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 6, Postfach 5528, D-6200
Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
57:30740 Lalu, N.
M. Three models for macro-simulation and population
projection. Population Research Laboratory Discussion Paper, No.
75, Jan 1991. 6, [1] pp. University of Alberta, Department of
Sociology, Population Research Laboratory: Edmonton, Canada. In Eng.
"In this paper three variations of a generalized simulation model
for tracing the impact of mortality and fertility on age composition
and total population size of a population closed to migration are
developed....Each traces the changes in the age-sex composition of a
population and any characteristic (such as dependency ratio) that
depends on the age structure....The three models are translated into
computer programmes which will run on any computer system with a
FORTRAN compiler....The simulation programmes described in this paper
are mainly intended for computer systems with a time sharing
environment and terminals. These programmes can also be used on IBM
personal computers or compatibles with a FORTRAN compiler." Programs
for use on an IBM personal computer or compatible are available from
the author. Some data for Nepal are used to illustrate the
models.
Correspondence: University of Alberta, Department
of Sociology, Population Research Laboratory, Edmonton, Alberta T6G
2H4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:30741 Martin, D.;
Bracken, I. Techniques for modelling population-related
raster databases. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 23, No. 7, Jul
1991. 1,069-75 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this paper the
refinement and application of a technique for the generation of surface
models of population and related information are examined....The
resulting database facilitates a range of improved spatial analyses.
Some of these are more flexible means of accomplishing conventional
tasks, such as the computation of incidence rates and the estimation of
population for nonstandard areal units. Additionally, surface concepts
are able to support innovative techniques, such as the identification
and characterization of discrete settlements. Applications are
described which demonstrate the range of possible analyses." The
technique is illustrated using data for the United
Kingdom.
Correspondence: D. Martin, University of Wales,
College of Cardiff, Department of City and Regional Planning, P.O. Box
906, Cardiff CF1 3YN, Wales. Location: Princeton University
Library (UES).
57:30742
Pfeffermann, Danny. Estimation and seasonal
adjustment of population means using data from repeated surveys.
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 9, No. 2, Apr 1991.
163-75 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"I consider estimation and
seasonal adjustment of population means based on rotating panel surveys
carried out at regular time intervals. The analysis uses a dynamic
structural model that assumes a decomposition of the mean into a
trend-level component and a seasonal component. The model accounts for
the correlations between individual panel estimators and for possible
rotation group effects. It can be applied to general rotation patterns
using either the individual panel estimates or the aggregate sample
estimates, depending on data availability. Empirical results
illustrating the important features of the procedure are
presented."
Correspondence: D. Pfeffermann, Hebrew
University, Department of Statistics, Jerusalem 91905, Israel.
Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington,
D.C.
57:30743 Sharma,
Hira L. Estimating the parameters of a Polya-Aeppli
distribution. Rural Demography, Vol. 15, No. 1-2, 1988. 1-6 pp.
Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"The paper provides expressions for the
'maximum likelihood equations' and the asymptotic variances and
co-variance of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters in a
Polya-Aeppli distribution provided that we have a knowledge of the
number of groups with zero objects...the number of groups with one
object...and the total number of groups....The results are illustrated
using an example involving demographic data [for India]." The focus is
on the number and types of households.
Correspondence: H.
L. Sharma, Regional Agricultural Research Station, Bamori Seed Farm,
Sagar, M.P., India. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
57:30744 Shumway,
Robert H.; Katzoff, Myron J. Adjustment of provisional
mortality series: the dynamic linear model with structured measurement
errors. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association,
Vol. 86, No. 415, Sep 1991. 611-7 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
The authors "consider the problem of adjusting provisional time
series using a bivariate structural model with correlated measurement
errors. Maximum likelihood estimators and a minimum mean squared error
adjustment procedure are derived for a provisional and final series
containing common trend and seasonal components. The model also
includes measurement errors common to both series and errors that are
specific to the provisional series. [The authors] illustrate the
technique by using provisional data to forecast ischemic heart disease
mortality."
Correspondence: R. H. Shumway, University of
California, Division of Statistics, Davis, CA 95616.
Location: Princeton University library (SM).
57:30745 United
Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New
York, New York); World Health Organization [WHO]. Global Programme on
AIDS (Geneva, Switzerland). The AIDS epidemic and its
demographic consequences. Proceedings of the United Nations/World
Health Organization Workshop on Modelling the Demographic Impact of the
AIDS Epidemic in Pattern II Countries: Progress to Date and Policies
for the Future, New York, 13-15 December 1989. No.
ST/ESA/SER.A/119, Pub. Order No. E.91.XIII.5. ISBN 92-1-151224-7. 1991.
ix, 140 pp. New York, New York/Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
This is
the report from a workshop in which researchers involved in projecting
the demographic impact of AIDS met to discuss and analyze the
differences among their projection models. The focus of the workshop
was on the application of the alternative models available to a
standard set of initial parameter values in order to identify
differences among the projections. Descriptions of the eight
approaches considered are included. The geographical focus is on
pattern II countries, those where HIV transmission is primarily
heterosexual or perinatal.
Correspondence: U.N. Department
of International Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations
Secretariat, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
57:30746 Wu,
Lawrence L.; Tuma, Nancy B. Assessing bias and fit of
global and local hazard models. CDE Working Paper, No. 90-07, Oct
1990. 35 pp. University of Wisconsin, Center for Demography and
Ecology: Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"This paper assesses the bias
and fit of a hazard rate model by comparing predicted and nonparametric
estimates of survivor probabilities. These comparisons also generate
several diagnostic displays for event history data. We illustrate
these diagnostic methods for several global and local hazard models
using data on age at first marriage for women in the June 1980 [U.S.]
Current Population Survey. Our results suggest that a nonproportional
local Gompertz model performs better than other models we
examine."
Correspondence: University of Wisconsin, Center
for Demography and Ecology, 4412 Social Science Building, 1180
Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706-1393. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:30747 Yashin,
Anatoli I. How to choose the parametric form of a hazard
rate: partially observed covariates. Center for Population
Analysis and Policy Research Report, No. 91-04-2, Apr 1991. 20 pp.
University of Minnesota, Center for Population Analysis and Policy:
Minneapolis, Minnesota. In Eng.
"This paper discusses the problem
of parametrization of the conditional survival function and the
respective hazard. The case of partially observed randomly changing
covariates is considered. The general formula for hazard rate as a
function of the values of the observed covariates in the case of one
measurement is derived for a wide class of stochastic processes
associated with covariates. When covariates are described by the
Gauss-Markov type stochastic process, the conditional Gaussian property
of the distribution of the unobservables is used to get the parametric
specification of the hazard rate as a function of observed
covariates."
Correspondence: University of Minnesota,
Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Center for Population Analysis
and Policy, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:30748 Yashin,
Anatoli I. Unobserved covariates in survival models:
smoothing estimates. Center for Population Analysis and Policy
Research Report, No. 91-04-1, Apr 1991. 13 pp. University of Minnesota,
Center for Population Analysis and Policy: Minneapolis, Minnesota. In
Eng.
"The problem of smoothing related to survival and reliability
analysis with unobserved stochastically changing covariates is
considered. The new 'forward' and 'backward' type smoothing equations
for unobserved covariates are derived. These equations use the
'filtration' type estimates which correspond to the conditional
Gaussian solution of the generalized Cameron and Martin problem. The
applications of this result to the parameter estimation problem are
discussed."
Correspondence: University of Minnesota,
Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Center for Population Analysis
and Policy, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
