Volume 57 - Number 3 - Fall 1991

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

57:30735 Beaumont, Paul M. ECESIS: an interregional economic-demographic model of the United States. Garland Studies in Historical Demography, ISBN 0-8240-3398-1. LC 89-37798. 1989. xii, 490 pp. Garland Publishing: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
"The purpose of this research is to determine to what extent a simultaneous economic-demographic interregional model provides improved projection and simulation properties over regional economic and demographic models used independently of one another." The model considered is ECESIS, an interregional economic-demographic model of the United States. The model is interdisciplinary in concept and takes into account differences between the national and subnational levels of analysis. "ECESIS consists of four major model elements....Fifty-one regional economic models...are linked by an interregional trade model so that wages, employment and production are simultaneously determined in all regions. An interregional cohort-component demographic accounts model simultaneously determines age-sex disaggregated population, births and deaths for each region. The economic and demographic models are linked by an interregional migration model that determines flows of people. The system is completely simultaneous. A change in any submodel will require adjustments in all other submodels."
Correspondence: Garland Publishing, 136 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30736 Becker, Henk A. Life histories and generations. ISBN 90-5187-049-3. 1991. xxxiv, 617 pp. Rijksuniversiteit te Utrecht, ISOR: Utrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
These are the proceedings of a symposium held June 22-23, 1989, at the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities and Social Sciences at Wassenaar, on the relation between life histories and generations. The approach is interdisciplinary, and the papers included examine both methodological and conceptual issues. These illustrate the advantages and drawbacks of different approaches and demonstrate the power of various analytical techniques. The primary geographical focus is on Europe.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Rijksuniversiteit te Utrecht, ISOR, Heidelberglaan 1, Postbus 80140, 3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30737 Blanchet, Didier. Demo-economic modeling: the economic consequences of demographic trends. [Modelisation demo-economique: consequences economiques des evolutions demographiques.] Travaux et Documents Cahier, No. 130, ISBN 2-7332-0130-1. 1991. vi, 136, 21 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France; Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
The author examines the basic elements of economic growth theory in order to assess the role played by demographic variables. The theories considered include the Malthusian model, the Solow model, and models developed by Boserup and others. The author introduces some new contributions to the field of theoretical models, including the integration of demographic transition theory to the Malthusian model, the incorporation of age structure effects in the Solow growth model, and the application of disequilibrium theory to the study of the link between population and employment. The focus of the study is on understanding basic relationships between demographic and economic factors as a prerequisite for building more disaggregated and more realistic models.
Correspondence: Presses Universitaires de France, Departement des Revues, 14 Avenue du Bois-de-l'Epine, BP 90, 91003 Evry Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30738 Fisch, Oscar. A structural approach to the form of the population density function. Geographical Analysis, Vol. 23, No. 3, Jul 1991. 261-75 pp. Columbus, Ohio. In Eng.
"The central objective of this paper is to explore a comprehensive structural modeling approach that extracts analytical density functions answering questions raised by recent empirical studies."
Correspondence: O. Fisch, City University of New York, Lehman College and Graduate Center, Department of Economics, Bedford Park Boulevard West, Bronx, NY 10468. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

57:30739 Germany, Federal Republic of. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung (Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of). Methods for evaluating demographic biographies: papers from meetings of the German Society for Demography's working group on "Demographic Methods" [Methoden zur Auswertung demographischer Biographien: Beitrage aus Sitzungen des Arbeitskreises "Bevolkerungswissenschaftliche Methoden" der Deutschen Gesellschaft fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft.] Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 67, 1990. 103 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This publication contains three papers presented at meetings of the German Society for Demography's working group on demographic methods. The papers focus on methods for analyzing life history data, problems in analyzing interviews dealing with couples' relationships, and methodological problems in the longitudinal analysis of households and families. The geographical focus is on West Germany.
Correspondence: Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 6, Postfach 5528, D-6200 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30740 Lalu, N. M. Three models for macro-simulation and population projection. Population Research Laboratory Discussion Paper, No. 75, Jan 1991. 6, [1] pp. University of Alberta, Department of Sociology, Population Research Laboratory: Edmonton, Canada. In Eng.
"In this paper three variations of a generalized simulation model for tracing the impact of mortality and fertility on age composition and total population size of a population closed to migration are developed....Each traces the changes in the age-sex composition of a population and any characteristic (such as dependency ratio) that depends on the age structure....The three models are translated into computer programmes which will run on any computer system with a FORTRAN compiler....The simulation programmes described in this paper are mainly intended for computer systems with a time sharing environment and terminals. These programmes can also be used on IBM personal computers or compatibles with a FORTRAN compiler." Programs for use on an IBM personal computer or compatible are available from the author. Some data for Nepal are used to illustrate the models.
Correspondence: University of Alberta, Department of Sociology, Population Research Laboratory, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30741 Martin, D.; Bracken, I. Techniques for modelling population-related raster databases. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 23, No. 7, Jul 1991. 1,069-75 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this paper the refinement and application of a technique for the generation of surface models of population and related information are examined....The resulting database facilitates a range of improved spatial analyses. Some of these are more flexible means of accomplishing conventional tasks, such as the computation of incidence rates and the estimation of population for nonstandard areal units. Additionally, surface concepts are able to support innovative techniques, such as the identification and characterization of discrete settlements. Applications are described which demonstrate the range of possible analyses." The technique is illustrated using data for the United Kingdom.
Correspondence: D. Martin, University of Wales, College of Cardiff, Department of City and Regional Planning, P.O. Box 906, Cardiff CF1 3YN, Wales. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

57:30742 Pfeffermann, Danny. Estimation and seasonal adjustment of population means using data from repeated surveys. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 9, No. 2, Apr 1991. 163-75 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"I consider estimation and seasonal adjustment of population means based on rotating panel surveys carried out at regular time intervals. The analysis uses a dynamic structural model that assumes a decomposition of the mean into a trend-level component and a seasonal component. The model accounts for the correlations between individual panel estimators and for possible rotation group effects. It can be applied to general rotation patterns using either the individual panel estimates or the aggregate sample estimates, depending on data availability. Empirical results illustrating the important features of the procedure are presented."
Correspondence: D. Pfeffermann, Hebrew University, Department of Statistics, Jerusalem 91905, Israel. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

57:30743 Sharma, Hira L. Estimating the parameters of a Polya-Aeppli distribution. Rural Demography, Vol. 15, No. 1-2, 1988. 1-6 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"The paper provides expressions for the 'maximum likelihood equations' and the asymptotic variances and co-variance of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters in a Polya-Aeppli distribution provided that we have a knowledge of the number of groups with zero objects...the number of groups with one object...and the total number of groups....The results are illustrated using an example involving demographic data [for India]." The focus is on the number and types of households.
Correspondence: H. L. Sharma, Regional Agricultural Research Station, Bamori Seed Farm, Sagar, M.P., India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30744 Shumway, Robert H.; Katzoff, Myron J. Adjustment of provisional mortality series: the dynamic linear model with structured measurement errors. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 86, No. 415, Sep 1991. 611-7 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
The authors "consider the problem of adjusting provisional time series using a bivariate structural model with correlated measurement errors. Maximum likelihood estimators and a minimum mean squared error adjustment procedure are derived for a provisional and final series containing common trend and seasonal components. The model also includes measurement errors common to both series and errors that are specific to the provisional series. [The authors] illustrate the technique by using provisional data to forecast ischemic heart disease mortality."
Correspondence: R. H. Shumway, University of California, Division of Statistics, Davis, CA 95616. Location: Princeton University library (SM).

57:30745 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York); World Health Organization [WHO]. Global Programme on AIDS (Geneva, Switzerland). The AIDS epidemic and its demographic consequences. Proceedings of the United Nations/World Health Organization Workshop on Modelling the Demographic Impact of the AIDS Epidemic in Pattern II Countries: Progress to Date and Policies for the Future, New York, 13-15 December 1989. No. ST/ESA/SER.A/119, Pub. Order No. E.91.XIII.5. ISBN 92-1-151224-7. 1991. ix, 140 pp. New York, New York/Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
This is the report from a workshop in which researchers involved in projecting the demographic impact of AIDS met to discuss and analyze the differences among their projection models. The focus of the workshop was on the application of the alternative models available to a standard set of initial parameter values in order to identify differences among the projections. Descriptions of the eight approaches considered are included. The geographical focus is on pattern II countries, those where HIV transmission is primarily heterosexual or perinatal.
Correspondence: U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30746 Wu, Lawrence L.; Tuma, Nancy B. Assessing bias and fit of global and local hazard models. CDE Working Paper, No. 90-07, Oct 1990. 35 pp. University of Wisconsin, Center for Demography and Ecology: Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"This paper assesses the bias and fit of a hazard rate model by comparing predicted and nonparametric estimates of survivor probabilities. These comparisons also generate several diagnostic displays for event history data. We illustrate these diagnostic methods for several global and local hazard models using data on age at first marriage for women in the June 1980 [U.S.] Current Population Survey. Our results suggest that a nonproportional local Gompertz model performs better than other models we examine."
Correspondence: University of Wisconsin, Center for Demography and Ecology, 4412 Social Science Building, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706-1393. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30747 Yashin, Anatoli I. How to choose the parametric form of a hazard rate: partially observed covariates. Center for Population Analysis and Policy Research Report, No. 91-04-2, Apr 1991. 20 pp. University of Minnesota, Center for Population Analysis and Policy: Minneapolis, Minnesota. In Eng.
"This paper discusses the problem of parametrization of the conditional survival function and the respective hazard. The case of partially observed randomly changing covariates is considered. The general formula for hazard rate as a function of the values of the observed covariates in the case of one measurement is derived for a wide class of stochastic processes associated with covariates. When covariates are described by the Gauss-Markov type stochastic process, the conditional Gaussian property of the distribution of the unobservables is used to get the parametric specification of the hazard rate as a function of observed covariates."
Correspondence: University of Minnesota, Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Center for Population Analysis and Policy, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30748 Yashin, Anatoli I. Unobserved covariates in survival models: smoothing estimates. Center for Population Analysis and Policy Research Report, No. 91-04-1, Apr 1991. 13 pp. University of Minnesota, Center for Population Analysis and Policy: Minneapolis, Minnesota. In Eng.
"The problem of smoothing related to survival and reliability analysis with unobserved stochastically changing covariates is considered. The new 'forward' and 'backward' type smoothing equations for unobserved covariates are derived. These equations use the 'filtration' type estimates which correspond to the conditional Gaussian solution of the generalized Cameron and Martin problem. The applications of this result to the parameter estimation problem are discussed."
Correspondence: University of Minnesota, Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Center for Population Analysis and Policy, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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